chair powell: good afternoon. my colleagues and i remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable price force the american people. commit has made good progress toward our dual mandate objectives. inflation has ease interested its highs without a significant increase in unemployment. that's very good news. but, inflation is still too high. ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured. the path forward is uncertain. i want to assure the american people that we are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal. restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. today, the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. over the past two years we have significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. our strong actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory. and we have been seeing the effects on economic activity

>> powell. >> i was aware of josh powell story, but i didn't associate his name.> to l's at the end of powell? >> yes. >> realizing what we know now i wish i would've recognize the urgency of the situation. >> you're in a position that nobody could've imagined. >> right. you don't automatically default to the notion that the person you're dealing with is a psychopath. it's difficult when one goes south on you, like this one did. >> the coxs don't blame dave loverack, not at all. and they've worked hard to stay calm, even after the loss of their grandsons, along with josh and whatever he may have known about susan. >> i think he was very selfish. and that is why he took the kids. if he couldn't have them, no one could have some. >> i would've appreciated it if he had left a note and told us where susan was, something. >> maybe the point was not to tell anyone. >> yeah. >> yeah. i'm sure he wants for us to never find her. >> he is still mad at us, you know? mad at us because we won't give up on our daughter, on finding our daughter. >> investigators have not given u

we won't keep that a secret. >> hi, chair powell. can you explain a little more on what you are considering when tapering qt. do you need to see the overnight facility all the way down to zero, or something you can start with a couple of hundred million dollars? >> not a decision we have made. we would not take that position, it has got to go to zero, if it were to stabilize. that is what we will be talking about at the march meeting. a whole range of issues will be briefed in the committee. we will get into all the issues that will be rising over the course of the next let's say a year or so. >> chair powell, i want to change gears a little bit. in the presidential primary campaign that has been going on for the last nine months or so, your name has come up often and any republican candidates have said, they probably would not want to give you a third term. i wanted to give you a chance to talk about that. do you want another term on the fed? what is your stance on that? >> i don't have a stance on that. it is not something i am foc

[ laughter and applause i guess the better question for powell would have been, "who wasn't involvedracy to steal the election?" "big tech companies, social media companies, home furnishing companies, all the major sports leagues, the airlines, every steak house in new york city, chili's, both the country, the restaurant and the temperature [ laughter ] and all the major soda brands excluding diet dr. pepper because no one in their right mind would consider that monstrosity a soda [ laughter ] [ cheers and applause in that same interview with the january 6th committee, powell also confirmed that trump at one point tried to appoint her special counsel to investigate the 2020 election. >> on friday he had asked me to be special counsel to address the election issues. he asked pat cipollone if he had the authority to name me special counsel. and he said, "yes. and then he asked him if he had the authority to give me whatever security clearance i needed and pat cipollone said, "yes." and then the president said, "okay. you know, i'm naming her that and i'm giving her security clearance.

charles: what the jay powell and markets may do today? >> jay powell has options.quity spreads all-time highs. he has the option of appearing hawkish without having to commit to action in march. so i think we will come out a little more hawkish. he will guide be patient, fight inflation, he will have plenty of time to change his mine. charles: i love having these conversations with you. i'm glad you are on board today. talk to you soon. we're minute minutes away from g for jay powell. market is reacting to the that. comments are so critical. we'll put comment on the screen. because you got to understand these are central to the questions the fed has to answer today. these again right at the very beginning they made some significant changes. the markets reacted significantly. i'm here with alli and danielle. ladies you had a chance to check out the fomc statement. i start with, today danielle, how much does that alter what you were expecting coming into today? >> i was surprised to see they completely removed any language about a sound banking system on a day like t

powell address that had and they don't like the level of places. we'd like 2019 inflation prices and 2023 wages. liz: yeah, wouldn't we all. definitely, diane, thank you very much. fox market alert, if you check the clock right now, there's about 32 minutes left to trade in the month of january and for the month, all three averages are set to close higher. we've got dow up about 1.5% on january and s&p up nearly 2%, not bad. and the nasdaq up 1.5%. russell i believe is negative for the -- yeah. it's down about 2.9% for the month. the dow hitting another intraday record high and we don't want to lose that. those gain haves flipped on their head and blue chips are down 235 points. if they were to somehow punch back up into positive territory in the next 31.5 minutes, that would be the fifth straight all time high at the close. and the red on the screen, can't blame boeing and the dow missed the ship with the on pace largest percentage increase since july of last year after the embattled airplane manufacturer reported better than expected earnings and

powell, there is no reason for powell to give up strategic ambiguity on the rate cuts. that is exactly what he has done here. remember, everyone was expecting some sort of timing that was very clear. back in december, they were predicting 10% rate cuts, now the markets come down, now it's 50%, and it will go down a lot more after this one. i know that the bulls have an argument that we have this inflation. therefore, real rates are higher, therefore, the fed should be more comfortable cutting. the problem here, which the fed has acknowledged, is that the fed usually cuts when there is economic distress, and there are no signs of economic distress. i think powell is acknowledging that with a strong, on the economy. the question is this, could the market handle fewer rate cuts with a strong economy? i think it can, but this kind of aggressive statement was a bit of a surprise for the markets. >> all right, that is the view from the new york stock exchange, downtown manhattan. let's head to chicago. >> let's let the markets talk first. if you look at two year note yields,

jay powell and the fed have just one tool and that is interest rates. but there are a lot of other things that affect prices in the economy. like price gouging. like supply chain tanks, like whether or not the government is investing in the economy. president biden used all of those tools. it helped bring prices down. and as i've said, what is happening now is the fed is actually increasing costs for families by keeping those interest rates high. inflation is down. come on, fed. turn it around and drop those interest rates. make it possible for a first time home buyer to get out there and get into the housing market. make it possible for someone to move out of where they are and move somewhere else. make it possible for more apartments and more rental units. make it possible so that part of the economy to get prices under better control as well. >> an important meeting this week i believe and also then the big march meeting which everyone has their eyes on to start seeing potentially a cut in rates. thank you for your time. >> you bet. >>> a new lawsuit

we look ahead to jay powell later today.y push back aggressively how vulnerable are treasuries? mark: it will be sharp and the curve. we had a big inversion and people are looking for a big staple, the next big money maker. if he pushes back it would be too early for the steepening. that will be a disappointment and you will see a deeper inversion. the two year yield will stay high relative to the tens. next week there is a tenant 30 year auction that will make them more difficult. any hint that may is on the cut keep steepening alive, but if he says there is no timetable for a fed cut the second half of the year, we will not see people get aggressive on the steepening. it will have to stay on hold. tom: 432 on the two-year. thank you, mark cranfield from our team. get more from the team on the block on the terminal or bloomberg.com. novo nordisk sees profits soaring. setting a strong forecast in terms of sales and profits. we bring you the details, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to daybreak euro. novo nordisk says

charles herring and an attorney for powell did not

powell going political and juice joe biden's ee election. the federal reserve, wait, federal reserve beholdenned to woke dei ? i'm read you are some of the dii drills they had at the federal reserve. you will not believe it, i don't believe it, i used to work for the fed, oh, my gosh, we have judy shelton and steve forbes, they will weigh in, you can catch kudlow, monday, friday, 4 p.m. on fox business. if you can't get us at 4, text your favorite 9-year-old, she will show you how to dcv the show -- dvr the show and you will never miss a single dei for the federal reserve. how about that. i am (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidde

i'm sure powell does remember that.om trump. larry: did the former president say anything about reappointing powell? >> i'm sure he would not reappoint powell. larry: he told me last fall i interviewed him a whole hour, he said he would not. that was in august. >> i said powell wasn't his choice. that it was mnuchin's choice who pushed it on him. larry: oh, my god. >> that is way of saying he kind of regrets doing that. larry: alex marlow, back to you, this is interesting by the way, you guys cover so much ground in these interviews, one thing that caught my eye, we talking about it on last night's show, former president trump will expand his base, come to new york, come to new jersey, not give up the red states, go out to new mexico, go out to virginia. you full-court press, interesting on that point own interview that surfaced you look at polling numbers, so-called biden coalition of young people, african-americans, hispanics appearls to be falling apart and if trump expands the republican reach it might succeed. >> i

jay powell is someone that seems to want to keep his options open.his is something he wants to see before rushing to cut rates. chair powell: we want to see more good data. it is not that we are looking for better data. we are looking for a continuation of good data. an example is the six months of good inflation data. is that sending us a true signal that we are in fact on a path, a sustainable path, to 2% inflation? annabelle: let's get more on the fed decision with our next guest, thomas honecker, a former kansas city fed president and now a distinguished fellow at the carter center. did anything stand out to you from today's meeting as a surprise or from the press conference? thomas: the only surprised to me -- surprise to me was markets seemed surprised. to me it has been clear they would not raise rates today and not be in a rush to do it in march. number one, the u.s. economy is growing well. even above trend the last half year. inflation is coming down. year-over-year basis it is well over 2%. that's what they are looking at. the labor market

i think a lot on not just the statement that comes out but the press conference, and powell does haveto public he may do that but i think would be a mistake their talking march or may at this meeting outcome going to be we're going to keep our options open want to look at february numbers there going to insist on that i think he will at least try to so it is going to be lets wait and see will be the message. maria: where a do you believe we will see a cut in may thomas. >> i think, i think it is possible yes, because i think they will be looking at this inflation unusuals if they come down a given to february numbers, encourage them also if job numbers are still weak or moderate we will see how that comes out, they will be that way. but i think on the whole, they will be prudent to wait i think this policy continues to be stimulus i think more pressure for interest rate later given amount of debt to be refinanced going forward they ought to leave options open so, so long as a possible so long as economy grows it is at the moment still a lot of, reasonable momentum in this economy. mar

powell going political and juice joe biden's e election. the federal reserve, wait, federal reserve beholdenned to woke dei ? i'm read you are some of the dii drills they had at the federal reserve. you will not believe it, i don't believe it, i used to work for the fed, oh, my gosh, we have judy shelton and steve forbes, they will weigh in, you can catch kudlow, monday, friday, 4 p.m. on fox business. if you can't get us at 4, text your favorite 9-year-old, she will show you how to dcv the show -- dvr the show and you will never miss a single dei for the federal reserve. how about that. i am kudlow. we'll be back. we worked hard to build up the shop, save for college and our retirement. but we got there, thanks to our advisor and vanguard. now i see who all that hard work was for... it was always for you. seeing you carry on our legacy— i'm so proud. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner. setting up the future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership. with a majority of my patience with sensitivity, i

face -- me and your whole family [ laughter and applause >> that's the powell face. excited. yeah you're right, that's true will you be with your family for the holidays >> yeah, we'll be back in texas. we kind of have this tradition where we put on -- we love costumes in my family. so this year, we'll put on track suits, and we'll rent a party bus, and usually bar hop. [ light laughter ] >> jimmy: come on, that's what i'm talking about. that's a good family right there. [ applause ] >> this year we get to go bar hopping, and to the theater because "anyone but you" opens december 22nd. >> jimmy: the whole family can go to the theater in the middle of bar hopping >> yeah, a little drunk rom-com, why not >> jimmy: and your parents have a cameo in "anyone but you." >> they do they do. >> jimmy: explain -- >> you have so many slides back here >> jimmy: i know, i'm just all props now. that's your dad sleeping right there. >> that is my dad. so sydney sweeney has a scene where she's doing, basically, like yoga on my face she's stuck. >> jimmy: very rom-commie type of scene

what if powell place it straight, is it possible?not likely because even though, it's human nature. he has been in eight years. he would like another four years just as greenspan wanted more. ben bernanke wanted more and didn't get it. they wanted that power. as henry kissinger the ultimate aphrodisiac. what they do with bank reserves which they pay interest, they have cut the interest costs there. urged the banks to start making loans. that is not a very public thing but to juice up bank lending. tell the regulators don't go bonkers on new capital requirements like that, those are things you could juice up the economy not get political flak for it, but make no mistake he would like another four years. larry: you really think he would? you really think he would? >> what is there after that? larry: could go play golf, whatever. >> he can do it now. larry: after the fed. all right, we haven't solved that problem but the weight of the evidence is probably with both of your somewhat cynical views. i want to read you, i want to go into th

powell. an honorable man, he will not seek a third term as chair, and instead, he wants to establish his historical reputation as the by who got inflation back to central bank's 2%, not volcker because, powell was asleep for first inflation airy year, but i bet j. powell wants to redeem himself, caveat emptor you wall street doves be careful. >> that semiriff tonight. -- that semiriff. breitbart's john carney and our very own taylor riggs, we'll talk about this subject. later in the show. first upcoming next. house judiciary chair jim jordan. he will tell us how he wants to stop the nonstop snooping of federal agencies to our financial, political, and religious private lives. i say drain the swamp. jordan said drain the swamp, stick with kudlow, we'll be right back. before you use ai to transform business, accelerate growth, predict trends, you need to begin with trust. introducing watsonx governance. helping you govern any ai, as data, models, and policies change, so you can scale it respons

that's how i'm thinking about things relative to jay powell.ly of the opinion as most people are that it's all political. i think there's -- it lurks in the background, you know, the fact that it's a presidential election year, but i really think it's about a where the economy is which is in a stable place for now, but where the real interest rates are. so i think investors should buy two, three, five-year treasuries because you're locking in a rate which isn't, you know, towering, but it's above the inflation rate which continues to fall. and i think those rates on the shortest end, the old t-bill and chill strategy which i never really recommended because i think the fed's going to cut. so if you want to buy a 5.25 6-month bill, you'll be happy for 6 month, but there's a strong chance you might roll that over at a level below today's 3 and 5-year treasuries. that's what i kind of like in fixed income. i'm less fond -- in the prior segment i talked about these big rallies in junk bonds and even lore tier investment grade bondt grade bonds whic

associates and powell has pleaded guilty to state charges in georgia stemming from that breach. john? >> smartmatic's got a lot of legal irons cooking. what else is cooking? >> they have targeted a wide swath of the right-wing figures that basically turned on a fire hose of disinformation of 2020. you can see here. news max, fox news, sidney powell, mike lindell, the my pillow ceo, and they got a boost last week too, john when a state judge in new york city ruled that they can expand their fox news case to not only go after fox news, but also fox corporation, the parent company. that could really ratchet up the pressure for the murdochs as smartmatic tries to hold them accountable for this 2020 disinformation. john? >> great to see you. sara? >>> still ahead, you are looking at live pictures behind me of a courtroom in south carolina where a judge is considering its convicted filler alex murdaugh, if he should get a new trial. what went wrong in the trial that has him serving two life sentences, the murder of his wife and his youngest son. >>> also the latest on the isis claim a

and i think that's what powell told us today. the higher probability is that inflation hangs out and that sort of 3% range, not that we're headed to recession. and the markets maybe haven't really woken up to that yet. >> well, to me, the move of the day is the bond market, the ten-year. and if you look at a one-point, two-point rally in the ten-year, that's not an environment where the economy is a little stronger and where the fed is -- yeah, fed is essentially upgraded the economy, and things are, okay, we're pushing it down the road because we would rather risk waiting a little bit longer. that's a market that's doing two things. some portion of that is new york community bank, and we're going to talk about that, but some major part of that is the fed is actually going to wait way too long and push this thing over the hill. and that's really fascinating. over the hill meaning, you know, recession. and be, you know, and actually put too much -- the lower inflation goes and the more fed funds stay at these levels, everybody kno

and powell and ot i worked for the low income transgenders provided $1,200 a month for and powell is a part-time faculty member and translator in the field of gender diversity hold a master from the university of cool berkley and worked in the program social services lgbtq+ and joined as is case management and as a time when traifrd are in attack powell and san francisco has challenged it another way because of powell and his work the city government is knowledgeable other traifrd and powell will be a voice in shaping public policy go forward on behalf of the board of supervisors i want to offer thanks and appreciation to powell you're great service to san francisco and lgbtq+ community i want to thank jupiter for giving me the sad news but also encouraging and helping us put together to make a special accomodation before i want to bring him up but the. >> ma'am, city administrator wants to say something. >> city administrator. >> thank you to supervisor mandelman to the board and here we go this item and express my appreciation the supervisor laid out the accomplishments powell is p

powell, fed chair will goose the economy for biden.s there will will be, rate cuts, the motivation to help biden keep trump out of the white house. trump gave powell a hard time. larry: he said during the pandemic he said j. powell of most improved when he witwent to zero. >> maybe someone could send him that memo, i am sure he does remember, that it is not his favorite thing to see trump take office. larry: did the former president say anything about reappointing powell. >> i am sure he would not. larry: i interviewed him last august, he said he would not. >> one thing he did say that powell was not his choice. that it was steve mnuchin's choice, that is way of say he regretted that. larry: alex to you, this is interesting, you cover so much ground. one thing that caught my eye, talking about it the other night, president trump, expanding his base. that he will go you know come to new york, to new jersey not give up rid states go to new mexico to virginia. really put full court press, what is interesting when you look at polling numbe

it is not exactly volcker because powell as sleep for the first inflationary year but i'll bet jay powell wants to redeem himself. so caveat emptor, all you wall street doves, be careful. that's my riff tonight. by the way "breitbart"'s john carney and our very own taylor riggs will talk about this very subject later in the show. first upcoming next house judiciary chair jim jordan will tell us how he wants to stop the non-stop snooping of federal agencies into our financial, political, religious, private lives. i say drain the swamp. jordan says drain the swamp. trump says drain the swamp and stick with "kudlow." we are swamp drainers. and we'll be right back. ♪ (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) get over here kids. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity.

let's go powell. it's all in the language. >> reporter: it is. that's the opposite of the way i ended up thinking you were going to ask about it, scott. let me go to the last two screens i gave you rather than the first two. it is about the statement, and the statement in question, scott, is the one that says the fed had telegraphed it was going to be hiking in the future, additional firming and what happens to that in determining any policy firming that may be appropriate. i was told this is what the fed needs to do. the fed needs to say, you know what, march isn't happening. may and june is probably happening, but we're doing pretty good. we're on the way there. guhu says, we're on track, our lean is may or june not march, having taken a lesson from last month, scott, where the fed -- really the fed chair is the one who sort of ignited a much more dovish response to the policy change than the fed itself wanted. >> we'll be listening for the language and reading the body language, the confidence level like we always do. you'll be in the room so

the powell pivot, the powell victory lap is not in jeopardy at this very second looking at the initialhis jobs report. even the yield, they were over 4%, barely clinging to that. wouldn't be surprised if the 10-year yield closes under 4%. cheryl: somebody may maker or lose $10 million, which i think is so interesting. real quick, i want to just confirm if as i was getting finally a chance to get into the report here, and what the government is saying where these jobs are, government, health care, social assistance. there are some jobs being added in construction, julia, i'm going to take this t but transportation and warehousing, there was actually a decrease. julia, is that in line with what you see in the data that you have? >> yes. so that sector guy so much during the pandemic -- grew so much that it is sort of swinging back to normal. in fact, the normalization that we saw in 2023 was not quite as large as might have been expected just guyed on the cyclical -- based on the cyclical swing back. that sector is still very, very strong going forward because of the rise of e-commerce c

host: what has jerome powell said? has he shown his cards? guest: if you can read between the lines, they have a language of their own where you can get a lot of value. they had a meeting in the middle of december and a press conference after that. what was clear is they don't have a plan right now. they still want to cut interest rates in 2024 but they are not ready to declare victory. at the same time, if you look at the projections of the actual members, they pretty much all expect to see rate cuts in 2024 and expectancy low inflation this year and steady growth. if you look at what they write down their forecast, it's a pretty benign outlook, things look pretty good. that's a projection and projections are not worth the paper they are not printed on. host: we usually cover the conference jay powell holds after he meets with the federal reserve board members. you are listening to him and thinking what? what did he just say? at the next one, what should our viewers be listening for, what are the keywords to help them read between the lines?

now powell literally kept his mouth shut like you said. powell's in charge.stake about this, rate cuts are coming and they are coming soon to an economy near you. charles: so on friday edward lawrence and i had the pleasure interviewing with the whole stampede of fomc members, we had the last one before this blackout period. mary daley she was great but dodged a few questions. one was the scuttlebutt federal reserve making all banks use the discount window at least once a year even if they don't have to. apparently the worry is they're trying to mask trouble at banks. if every bank uses the discount window you never know which one is in trouble but does the public deserve to know that kind of thing? >> first the malery daily the san francisco fed the one regulating silicon valley bank? that one. moving along. moving along. actually what she's talking about has been going on ever since silicon valley bank. i know that because i'm a director after bank here in dallas and we've been involved with this. there are banks that never used the discount window and they

jake tapper: after she was sued by dominion, powell's attorney eventually conceded that powell lied saying that, "no reasonable person would conclude that her statements were truly statements of fact". but long before that happened, the president's attorney general, bill barr, was investigating all of trump's fraud claims. bill barr: a little getting awkward because obviously he had lost the election and-- jake tapper: barr said he made it clear to donald trump at a november 23rd meeting that he had lost. bill barr: our role is to investigate fraud, and it's just not meritorious. they're not panning out. speaker: he was going to win in spite of all the fraud-- jake tapper: but spurred on by the most ardent election liars, including many in maga media-- speaker: clearly the president won this election. jake tapper: --donald trump would not listen to reason or fact. maria bartiromo: where is the doj and the fbi in all of this, mr. president? donald trump: missing in action. bill barr: this got under my skin, but i also felt it was time for me to say something, so i set up a lunch with the ap

everybody will be watching jay powell. fed-watchers will hint, start to hint they will have quantitative tightening. obviously jay powell has to alert us before they give cuts, right? they have to give some sort of a signal? >> the fed has completely lost control of its messages because at the last fomc press conference, powell said quote, unquote, we're not talking about slowing down qt. in the the minutes of the meeting three weeks later there was a big discussion slowing down qf. i just don't know what to believe anymore. i don't know what they believe they want us to believe but i will tell you this, when you're in a emergency, when you're in a banking crisis like 2009, when you're in a global shutdown like 2020 it makes all the sense in the world for the fed to do qe. it really is e, easing. taking duration out of the market buying long-term bonds. but when times are normal like they are right now reducing the fed's balance sheet is not qt. it is not tightening. right now nobody cares about risk. it is not a problem.

so jay powell is going to be talking today. they're releasing a statement.eal question is are they going to cut rates today? and if you look at where markets are placing these odds, they do not think it's going to happen today. so this is where markets are today. you know, 98% chance there is no change. however, as you pointed out, the fed has signaled it may start cutting rates at some point this year. a lot of market participants think, you know, there's a pretty decent chance that they'll start cutting as soon as march. 40% chance or so. and so they will be paying very careful attention to what's in that statement. any tiny tweak of verbage in that statement to indicate their timing as well as the press conference that happens later today at 2:30 when chairman powell will be taking questions from journalists about how he's viewing the state of play and how he views the economy. now the question about what this means for consumers is a great one. so, interest rates, what the fed controls has a lot of knock-on effects for other consumer products. so things

later it was supplemented by colin powell, who also served as minister of defense, the same mr.est tube. the updated document from eimberger powell essentially gave the united states a free hand around the globe, because the end justifies the means. this is for... and this is a key document for the united states: 2022, the national security strategy, the main threats are the growing power of china and the imperial ambitions of the kremlin. russia is mentioned in the document 71 times china 55. the main priority for the next five years: confrontation with hostile forces. american diplomacy assesses the russian federation as a direct threat to the free world order, and the prc is considered by the united states as an enemy in... russia and china. the central challenge to us security is the resumption of long-term great power competition with china and russia as individuals. both participants working together to achieve common goals. china is using its rapidly modernizing military, information warfare and predatory economy to force neighboring countries to reorder the indo-pacific

jay powell has been obsessing over this.ins concerning to you from an investor perspective? they are elevated but it seems given how far the inflation rate has come down, it seems we can live with that. >> the wage gains are growing at a slowing pace. i don't really find it too much of a risk at this point. i think the tail risk right now will be some supply chain shortages as a result of the red sea issues, the hot wars going on, that's what could cause inflation to temporarily spike. the directions lower inflation. romaine: when you consider how far we've come from 9% when you look at the core numbers and how far they have come closer to the feds target but we are not there yet, do we give the fred credit for that test the fed credit for that? >> we give the fed credit for not tightening and ending qe sooner. in q1, inflation cpi average in the 8's in the fed didn't do anything until march. at this point, we applaud the fed for the 18 month tightening campaign, moving the rates back up to 5%. the biggest mistake that could

jay powell's news conference at 2:00 p.m. eastern time.o see you. >>> time to check some of this morning's top corporate stories. silvana henao is back with those. silvana. >> hey, frank, good morning to you. a new suitor for paramount global has emerged. allen's bid comes after sources revealed to cnbc last week that david ellison's sky dans media and its financial backers are exploring a deal to take paramount global private. shares of walmart popping after announcing a three-for-one stock split, the move coming with the retail giant's shares sitting just below an all-time high. walmart says the split will let more employees buy into the company's stock purchase plan. >>> and social media ceos are set to go before the senate for a hearing committee on what they're doing and not doing to keep their platforms safe. mark zuckerberg as well as the heads of others, that hearing begins at 10:00 a.m. eastern, frank. >> silvana, thank you very much. >>> turning back to one of your morning's big money movers or two of them, i show uld say, two of

did jay powell take his victory lap too soon? danielle dimartino booth is here later in studio to discuss. all that and more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, so 2024 obviously starting on the back foot. it appears buyers may still be on vacation. sellers, they waited for the calendar to turn. you can see some of this might be profit-taking. what we're looking at this is not necessarily unusual in the first part of the year particularly a presidential election. but here is the good news, usually markets go up in election years, since 2050, 1950, rather, but even more so when the prior year is up more than 10%. remember last year was up huge. if history repeats itself this is just an early stumble out of the gate. of course here's the thing we to think about though? the market, right, sort of, people who missed the market last year. let's face it so many folks missed the market last year. this is where the money went, what they call risk-free assets. government bonds up 11.4%. money markets up 11%. look at stocks. money ac

a lot of anticipation with jay powell's press conference. what do you expect?s going to be a tough press conference. they will try to walk a fine line between not ruling march out as a live meeting for a rate cut and not absolutely locking it in. they will try to keep it live and keep options open. they will not want to be too definitive. >> you said the odds are 50/50. i want to talk about the week overall. fed decision and palmyrjay powe conference and the jobs report on friday. how does that factor in? the consensus is we reached that soft landing. does the fed see it the same way? >> i think the fed is hopeful. i think they have to watch a couple of data points between now and the march meeting. the most important is february 9th. that is the cpi revision. in this case, last year we saw the cpi revision is an upward revision to the fourth quarter. the inflation picture wasn't as positive. if that were to happen again, it could really change the picture the fed is looking at here. the february 9th revisions will be incredibly crucial to how they are thinking

remember the dovish press conference from jay powell?eeting, but the data around that continues to be solid. him reinforcing that risk may be. let's talk about those fed minutes and what they will tell the markets about just how many rate cuts we will get this. year andwhere they will start chief u.s. economist joining us now. the south was that jay powell was dovish but that the data is strong. listening to plenty of people talk about the economy, how do these things fit together with what we. and are going to get in the minutes? >> i think the data are showing that inflation and the labor market are moving in the right direction. that is the dual mandate. rates will move lower. but in terms of the fatah and what the fed is looking at, inflation in the labor markets are moving in the right direction. that will be the focus. in terms of what they do, the minutes, i am not sure what they will reveal. what chair powell said, many participants expressed their views, that discussion was going to happen. i think that is probably what they wil

the issue is this kibbutz chair powell in a tricky place when he -- this could put chair powell in a tricky place when he visits congress. when you head into an election, it is tricky. lisa: do you think anyone really thinks that the fed will say, if chair powell asked us to rates, we have to? what is the message from democrats in terms of the reason for inflation? it is evident that restrictive monetary policy is no longer the right tool for combating inflation. are they going to try to give the blame to the federal reserve for the lack of sentiment? it is not reflecting the economic data coming out. jonathan: it is political grandstanding. it was inappropriate when the trump administration did it. it is inappropriate now. it is stupid about now and we should use that word. we are about to cut interest rates anyway. what are you doing? annmarie: just hold tight. this is about how they are trying to craft the messes around inflation and it has been pretty muddy. jonathan: coming up, peter oppenheimer of goldman sachs following disappointment from tech. the latest bloomberg poll shows

it's all about the narrative would chair powell.e done nothing but pushback. where all things considered looking at the economy which still seems to be in relatively good shape we're honed in on may, june. maria: for rate cut and will start to get guidance on balance sheet from the fed chair but i think the narrative is this, people are sitting there saying why is the fed get a cut rates when gdp is over 3%. i think the why it's about inflation the to talk about real interest rates the inflation fed funds rate if you look at the tenure rates i think they will continue to set. if you look at the pet indicator there below 3%. if we continue along the pathway also we went 753 or four times in 2002 we could take some of that off. maria: wearies the weakening in the economy, look at the job cuts that these companies are starting the year with cutbacks, ups, nasdaq, block announcing thousands of job cuts alone. there are now more than 20 companies cutting jobs will get the january adp employment out this morning at 8:15 a.m. eastern will

host: what has jerome powell said? has he shown his cards? guest: if you can read between the lines, they have a language of their own where you can get a lot of value. they had a meeting in the middle of december and a press conference after that. what was clear is they don't have a plan right now. they still want to cut interest rates in 2024 but they are not ready to declare victory. at the same time, if you look at the projections of the actual members, they pretty much all expect to see rate cuts in 2024 and expectancy low inflation this year and steady growth. if you look at what they write down their forecast, it's a pretty benign outlook, things look pretty good. that's a projection and projections are not worth the paper they are not printed on. host: we usually cover the conference jay powell holds after he meets with the federal reserve board members. you are listening to him and thinking what? what did he just say? at the next one, what should our viewers be listening for, what are the keywords to help them read between the lines?

powell has to put his foot forward and say look inflation's fine.t to your point, prices are still going up but not so much. we have been weak hundred h i want to look good. i don't want to be an issue. so i with i will find a reason to pivot into those cuts. charles: that is a tough pill to swallow though. we know after the first george bush blamed his election loss on the fed, they have been trying to stay neutral but this feels like powell is maybe putting his foot on the pedal here a little bit to maybe help biden be reelected. i would hate to think he is doing that simply for job security. >> it is not so much i think he is doing it for job security to your point but what i think he is trying to do is give himself the flexibility to do what he needs to do and not be blamed for any bank failures in particular that could happen this year. charles: but if we get -- it is a dangerous gambit though. if we get a spike in inflation. he was already wrong on transitory. if this is premature, if he is right, you know what he will go down as a legend but

this person said sidney powell struck her as forthright. she said that the trump lawyer had been, quote, shaking with righteous anger. quote, very persuasive. then she added, of course the talking heads will dismiss them. f them. cheney says, we were in dangerous territory. the president president and his legal team were making outlandish and false claims that struck at the heart of our electoral process. millions of americans believed them, and the trump campaign continued to send e-mails and run ads spreading these same falsehoods all over the country. donald trump was doing it nearly every time he spoke publicly. i knew how perilous this was. i knew it had to stop. the next day, november 20th, i issued a statement calling on president trump to put up or shut up." elsewhere in the book here's cheney talking about the kind of thing she was hearing from her constituents fwhak wyoming and where they were getting their information. she said, quote, i also found that many of those in wyoming who were the most upset or angry were unaware of the

ed, put yourself in powell's position. know, we get the headlineses, but once you comb through this report, do you think maybe the fed breathed a sigh of relief that, okay, this is socially what they wanted? >> it's what they absolutely wanted. i mean, they've been talking about the unemployment rate going over 4% maybe to 4.5% as being perfect ifly acceptable and consistent with their belief that some weakening in the labor market is necessary to bring inflation down. but it is one month of data. the data can be quite volatile. i think wages are actually rising faster than prices, so we're seeing some real wage gains. but all in all, fed chair powell's got to be pretty pleased with this number. charles: if your -- in your most recent note, you mentioned angst about this powell victory lap maybe coming a little bit too soon, and overall market investors being too bullish. now, i agree completely, i think a lot of money was made last year. people waited to pay the tax man, you know, take your profits early this year and is