believes he can control powell.does that mean? powell would probably push back hard against that characterization, but if the administration is making its decision based on who would be more amenable to keeping rates low if the economy starts to overheat, that is an interesting reason to choose powell if that is what they are thinking. vonnie: and he has also worked at the treasury himself. he had senior roles under george h.w. bush. michael mckee, will continue to follow this story. michael mckee, our international policy and economics correspondent. vonnie: all right, in other news -- apple -- let's turn to tech. shares of apple are higher after the company began accepting free orders for its iphone 10. initial supplies for delivering next week sold out in minutes in several countries with weight times climbing is hot -- wait times climb in its highest six weeks in united states. join us to discuss the importance of the new iphone 4 apple an initial data on preorders is john butler. there was trepidation that thos

yellen, taylor, powell or a wildcard? kathleen: yellen. joern: powell. jack: powell. is it the beginning of the end of the bond bull market? kathleen: yes. joern: no. jack: yes. jonathan: next week we could get a first rate hike in over a decade from the bank of england. we have heard it before from governor carney. he has given us some forward guidance in 2014 and 2015, it never came. do we have an unreliable boyfriend or the first hike in over a decade in the united kingdom? kathleen: yes. joern: hike. jack: hike. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. kathleen gaffney, joern wasmund and jack flaherty. that does it for us from new york city. we will see you next friday at a different time. 11:30 a.m. in new york. that will be 3:30 p.m. in london. so look out for that and remember, next week before the president goes on his trip around asia we should have the next chair of the federal reserve. will it be chair yellen, will it be governor powell or will it be john taylor? i look forward to bring the news on bloomberg real yield. from new york city to our audien

we prefer powell over taylor.t is the market being entrenched and complacent that things will stay the same. jonathan: you think they will be disappointed? kathleen: i think they are going to be very disappointed. i think the carry trade, the reach for yield that has thrown markets out of whack, will be challenged. jonathan: what is the best way of capturing the story kathleen is talking about in the market, jack? jack: the way we have been playing things is a core short duration in developed markets. given the fact that in general, we have strength in the economiess and is continuing and seeing bigger growth elsewhere, the more positive risk stance to be taking is the one we have been playing and believe it can continue as well. how do we do that in the fixed income market? you stay long in emerging markets. there is some emerging marketplaces you can be. we like mexico, for instance. long mexico and short core europe. that is one way to play it. jonathan: you want to be short duration and long yen? cufflink, do

taylor, powell, or yellen? mike: powell. marilyn: powell. bob: powell.redit, wait for the correction, or it's not getting any cheaper? mike: i think you sell and wait for the opportunity to buy at wider spreads. bob: buy all day long. marilyn: stay in it for now. jonathan: bund yields, higher or lower your end? mike: lower. bob: higher. marilyn: higher. jonathan: that does it for us. thank you for joining me, mike collins, bob michele, and marilyn watson. that does it for us. we will see you next friday at the same time. 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. by then, we might know who the next fed chair is. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ marilyn watson. >> the thrill of living well is in the pursuit. the pursuit of the rarest experiences, the pursuit of the finest products, the pursuit of quality in everything you do. and in all of these pursuits, you need the best intelligence to make the best decisions. >> we know she sells for a lot, but what makes her important -- >> it is not easy. it's difficult work. >> welcome to "bloomberg pursuits," the

taylor, powell, or yellen? michael: how. marilyn: powell. bob: powell.redit or it's not getting any cheaper? andael: i think you sell way for the opportunity to buy it wider spreads. bob: buy all day long. marilyn: stay in it for now.. jonathan: bond yields higher or lower? michael: lower. bob: higher. marilyn: higher. jonathan: that does it for us. they gave rejoining the -- thank you for joining me michael collins, bob michele, and marilyn watson. we will see you next friday at the same time. 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. by that time we might know who the next fed chair is. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ >> it is 12:30 new york. 12:30 a.m. in hong kong. shery: will come to bloomberg markets. ♪ shery: from bloomberg world headquarters, here are the top stories we're following. janettch as we learn yellen is back at the white house, just a day after meeting with president trump. we have the latest on this critical decision for investors worldwide. as a whirlwind week of third-quarter earnings came to a close, we look at the details. tec

taylor, powell, or yellen? mike collins? mike: powell. marilyn: powell. bob: powell.redit -- wait for the correction, or it's not getting any cheaper? mike: i think you sell and wait for the opportunity to buy at wider spreads. bob: buy all day long. marilyn: stay in it for now. jonathan: bund yields, higher or lower year and? -- end? mike: lower. bob: higher. marilyn: higher. jonathan: that does it for us. thank you very much for joining me. mike collins, bob michele, and marilyn watson. that does it for us. from new york we will see you , next friday at the same time. 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. i imagine by then, we might know who the next fed chair is. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ i'm done. done with figuring it out for myself. i'm done with surprises. i'm done with complicated. if you're on medicare, and ready to be done with complicated, turn to unitedhealthcare and our medicare advantage plans... like aarp medicarecomplete. these plans can combine your hospital and doctor coverage, with prescription drug coverage and more, all in one plan f

the first 1 -- taylor, powell, or yellen? mike collins? mike: powell. marilyn: powell. bob: powell.redit -- wait for the correction, or it's not getting any cheaper? mike: i think you sell and wait for the opportunity to buy at wider spreads. bob: buy all day long. marilyn: stay in it for now. jonathan: bund yields, higher or lower year end? mike: i will say lower. bob: higher. marilyn: higher. jonathan: that does it for us. thank you very much for joining me. mike collins, bob michele, and marilyn watson. that does it for us. from new york, we will see you next friday at the same time. 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. i imagine by then, we might know who the next fed chair is. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ who knew that phones would start doing everything? entertaining us, getting us back on track, and finding us dates. phones really have changed. so why hasn't the way we pay for them? introducing xfinity mobile. you only pay for data and can easily switch between pay per gig and unlimited. no one else lets you do that. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or u

poweller towel over -- over taylor.t is the market being entrenched and complacent that things will stay the same. jonathan: you think they will be disappointed? kathleen: they will be very disappointed. they carry trade, the retreat yield -- reach for yields will be challenged. jonathan: what is the best way to counter the story? jack: the way we have been playing things is a core short duration in developed markets. given that in general we have strength in the economy's and is continuing and seeing bigger growth elsewhere, the more positive risk stands to be taking is the one we have been playing and believe it can continue as well. how do we do that? you stay long in emerging markets. there is some emerging marketplaces you can be. we like mexico, for instance. long mexico in short europe. jonathan: do you agree with that? kathleen: i like long. i would not go short duration. that is a huge give up. currency is the key in the market. alongan: kathleen gaffney with joern wasmund and jack flaherty. coming up, stranger

mike pence and the steven mnuchin want it to be trump powell or john taylor -- jerome powell or johnis week. eu leaders say the u.k. has offered more on brexit than before. merkel saidngela while theresa may once , they have signals not changed their stance. tradere expected to move by september and she sees it zero expectations the brexit talks won't succeed. rex tillerson says there is little hope that the standoff qatar will end soon, blaming the four countries aligned up against the gulf emirates. they are ready to engage and it is up to the leadership to respond. he plans to fly into the region next week, his first trip since july. new zealand has its youngest leader in 150 years after labor won the backing. he is 37 and has been compared with other youthful figures such has an manual macron and prime minister justin trudeau. -- emmanuel macron and prime minister justin trudeau. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm juliette saly, this is bloomberg. i want to see how asian markets are shaping up on the fina

powell. a slow unwind from the balance sheet, with the rate increases -- >> how do we know that >> he's voted with her >> usually you do vote with her. >> no you have dissenters. >> but those are presidents. i'm talking about governors. >> governors typically vote with, but he's closer to her perspective than john taylor or kevin warsh, both of whom believe in the taylor rule itself so there's a slightly more dovish tone to mr. powell's commentary versus those other two. >> do you feel the administration now, president trump and everybody in his inner circle feels or has in the front of their minds these decisions could have a royailing ef fiktf markets. >> the president comes from a background where low interests have been helpful in one respect or another hope ply that's not the way in which you pick a fed chair, usually there's a fill sphiloso underpinnings for it but if there's someone who raises rates more slowly than taylor or warsh, jay powell is the guy. >> he said he likes low intere

is said to be leaning toward taylor and powell. the budget resolution taking another step toward considering trumps tax plan. ,heresa may comes to brussels offering the cover to drive forward brexit talks. good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak. i am jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. once again, a fifth straight day of gains. we drive out another all-time high and futures are positive. it is all about the prospect of tax reform and that means a stronger dollar story across the g10 space, euro-dollar at 1.18. yields grind five basis points higher. dollar-yen, look at now below 114. you wind up seeing the spread when you talk about a possible dovish fed, the spread continues to steepen. that is more on tax reform, 78 basis points is the difference. the pound just turning positive. a macron-merkel-may lovefest over the past few days. i do want to bring in breaking news over the last half hour from ge, a huge mess on earnings at $.29 a share versus estimates that $.50 a share, and it cut its full-year forecast. th

on jerome powell.n announcement is unlikely this week. say the u.k. has offered more on brexit than before, but must do better if advance.ons are to while theresa may sent significant signals, she has not changed her stance. the german chancellor added that it is motivated to trade by december and sees zero indication the brexit talks won't succeed. hasspanish prime minister won the backing of other eu leaders as he prepares to take direct control of catalonia. the separatist leaders meet on monday to plan their next move. they are asking for supporters to pull money out of banks in protests. its youngestas leader in 150 years after labor won the backing of the countriy. beenjust 37 and has compared with other youthful figures such as emmanuel macron and justin trudeau in canada. a slowdown is coming and capitalism needs a human face. announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." ♪ ahead, pollsl suggesting shinzo obvious election gamble will pay off and clinch another four years

today it seems like it is jerome powell. would jerome powell be a good choice for the economy?that john taylor or janet yellen can't bring? toohey wouldn't distinguish much between choices such as paolo or taylor given they have been working together and seem to share in a broader sense some of the views on how policymaking should be done, more rules-based , not as much data dependency, not short-term data dependency. i think that will be the big difference. jerome powell or john taylor, the market would and thatre hawkishness will short-term impact the markets on treasuries and the u.s. dollar. >> what would jerome powell signal in terms of president preferences? one guest says he favors the market situation where they stock market is at record highs. he wants to stay the course but do something different. that jerome powell has a different stamp to janet yellen when it comes to regulation? get the feeling it is more to do with regulation. ,n the rules-based approach that would imply more hawkishness, and i doubt that would be good for the stock markets and something that woul

if powell were to get the position and did start pushing up those interest rates a little faster what what would that mean for the eurozone which isn't budging from its. historically low interest rate. that's right that's what mario draghi said lots last week and it's boy the markets here it's put pressure on the euro and that's probably going to continue and the problem is if the spread gets too far then the euro becomes really under pressure the economy in the euro zone is doing all right one could see an acceleration of the process but whether the e.c.b. will actually do it for political reasons we don't know that yet but it will be a development that will have major impact on the markets here in the coming months and years of the expectations of the u.s. and the pressures on the euro zone thank you very much. fossil fuels like coal and oil still account fold large amounts of the world's energy needs but they also contribute to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the same time tropical rain forests that naturally absorb c o two is still being destroyed at an alarmi

i think that is the camp that might be pushing more broadly for john taylor over powell, but powell isred a safe choice kind of like yellen. haidi: thank you. that is one of the top stories of the hour. kathleen hays in new york. 20 more to come on "daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. pinto holding talks with indonesian groups about its exit from gold and copper mines. they are keen to sell part of the operation. we're also told there is no guarantee the talks will advance held itsnoble group shares from the stock exchange on friday, and it's oil unit is being sold. urgently.s cash a deal may be announced later monday. this is ahead of what is being called a major transaction. next, elections have rattled the markets. why the promised minister needs to win over investors. this is bloomberg. ♪ is this a phone? or a little internet machine? it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra

taylor, powell, or yellen? mike: powell. marilyn: powell. bob: powell.redit, wait for the correction, or it's not getting any cheaper? mike: i think you sell and wait for the opportunity to buy at wider spreads. bob: buy all day long. marilyn: stay in it for now. jonathan: bund yields, higher or lower your end? mike: lower. bob: higher. marilyn: higher. jonathan: that does it for us. thank you for joining me, mike collins bob michele, and , marilyn watson. that does it for us. we will see you next friday at the same time. 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. by then, we might know who the next fed chair is. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast busin

powell's a republican.n injuryny stein, a democrat -- jeremy stein, a democrat, had been nominated, he had been filibustered. this is a goodwill move by the president to get one of his sides on the board of governors. he worked at carlisle. he worked at bankers trust. he worked under george bush white house. he's a treasury, among other positions. mainly focuses on bank regulation. so that in a nut shell is jay powell. but the bottom line, once we get past this announcement, whoever the next fed chair is going to face the same problem that janet yellen has faced during her term. tighter labor markets, growing america, weak inflation, how do you reconcile that? i think one more issue that's pretty important here for jay powell iraqis going to have to go through the confirmation process in front of the senate, democrats are probably going to question him on a lot of issues like rolling back parts of dodd-frank. i think beyond that, given how trump has changed the nature of this fed selection process, will he

take your pick, but i'll take the possibility of a jerome powell-led fed. is that going to be markedly different from a yellen fed? good for investors in neutral? >> i don'tening it's going to be markedly different. the big concerns was perhaps president trump might select someone more hawkish than janet yellen, something the likes of john taylor. if you look at the shape of the yield curve now, it's not significantly steep, so aggressive moves on the short end of the curve could have foretold a looming recession. i think in jerome powell is the choice, that risk goes down considerably. >> let's move on to tax reform, which hasn't happened yet, but they seem to be making some progress. does that have the potential to unnerve the market? because there's in back-and-forth about what deductions will be allowed in, how retirement savings might be treated, et cetera. >> the good news is a lot of the moves were in the growthier segments of the markets, so if this market rally was all about expectations of tax cuts, then you probably would have seen small caps out

saysr own story on powell he is not made up his mind.ing we know about donald trump, he could. justd not send it red for that reason. scarlet: red, the reference to the bloomberg news hot headlines when we confirm. no matter who the president nominates, at the end of the day, whether it is powell, or warsh, -- yellen'sng to be policies. >> this is definitely going to continue and less economic conditions take a turn that none of us can anticipate. scarlet: then it is a new game entirely. thank you so much. coming up, it is hurry up and wait for apple's new-10 -- new iphone 10. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ scarlet: "what'd you miss?" -- notchedpple higher as it had more people sign up for pre orders of i phone 10. times, how dot they stack up with previous mega hype phones with apple? >> we are seeing a way of six weeks for these phones. we are seeing a bit of an extension this time around. julia: the new retail tease angela aaron --retail chief, angela aaron, she has arranged for the iphone to be given in advance. >> when it came out in 2003,

jerome powell-john taylor mean for the fed?ts. investors will like those combo packages, balance and even this, so if it is powell-taylor or yellen-taylor, the market will take it better. all these things are positive to equities, but it is hard get yields to surge higher. it is likely to be supportive are equities this week, but is the same reason it is likely to send yields lower. yvonne: so we don't get tax reform by the year end, what could happen to yields in the dollar? is the one thing that can get sustainable higher yields, but it needs to be a reform,kage proper tax not just superficial tax cuts that creates nervousness about the budget deficit over all. it looks like we might get some tax cuts. i think investor optimism is high we will get something deliver, but how stimulative this will be next year is much more difficult. be clear from to this week which way it will go. given the optimism, it is more likely lower we will get tax reform at the end of the year. again, that is the one risk that could go either way, put

in this case, the indicators point to powell.di: were just sort of moving our way through this action-packed agenda week. trump in asia, 11 days, he is visiting china company by rex tillerson. how will this contrast with the mar-a-lago meeting? especially coming off his high with the chinese party congress last week? jacob: in some ways i think it will be a bit of a continuation of mar-a-lago. it is my belief that the basic and trumps struck at mar-a-lago, which is that the chinese would be more helpful on north korea and the trump administration would hold off on at least the more aggressive trade war antics on the trade front vis-a-vis china, i think that modus operandi will hold also from this meeting, this bitt, and therefore it is a of a status quo continuation visit, and my opinion. haidi: when we go on the whole global vacuum argument? it looked like china was ready to step in, but after the rhetoric of the congress over the last couple of weeks, it doesn't seem like the government model for china is going to change adequa

i do want to say something about powell and deregulation. interviews with jay powell here on cnbc, and i want to point out that in the rarefied world of going against the chair or against the prevailing wisdom at the fed, jay powell went pretty far with me when it came to talking about deregulation he talked about scrapping or rethinking the volcker rule. he talked about the needs for changes that weren't consensus on the board one other thing i want to point out which alan was alluding to, part of what's going on here is a desire to change the fed through personality. there are republicans who have concerns about things the fed has done, which have been within the mandate given by congress. and they're angry about that mandate and the way the fed has acted. what troubles me about this prosa little bit is trying to change the law through the personality rather than changingish the law itself if you don't like what the fed is doing and you're in congress, you should change the law, not necessarily try to affect that change through a personali

janet yellen and powell have never dissented. the betting on powell is 81%. knows.like a reality tv show. anna: we do not know. manus: we do not know. whoever we get, powell, possibly yellen, and leave the other out for the moment. it is going to be continuity, people who never dissented. it is going to be perhaps more likely more of the same. david: absolutely. what donald trump would love to see is a strong u.s. economy. he does want anyone who is going to tighten policy too much. situationget into a where the u.s. is growing robustly and the fed is raising rates, that is absolutely fine. also, you need the fiscal side, some meaningful tax reforms. by the end of the day, the fed is well on its way to normalizing policy in the u.s.. anna: we cannot rule out the idea that a hawk is appointed, but there have been so much reporting and set about this story, but looking at this from any economist's perspective, which is a robust growth story, was the idea of a hawk, was that hard to justify for you? david: not really. at the end of the day, you have tight money, moneta

now, powell would require senate confirmation. some of his views specifically on regulation could draw opposition for conservatives who previously voted against powell's confirmation as fed governor. >>> bowe bergdahl is due back in court after making surprise move of taking the witness stand during sentencing hearing. apologized to hearings for the troops who deserted him. broke down several times reading his statement saying he made a quote, terrible mistake in leaving adding that he was trying to do something good and it turned bad. bergdahl often detailed the harsh conditions he faced inial bannon captivity. statement marked the first time courtroom had heard from him during the proceedings also marked the openings of the defense's case. bergdahl has the potential to be sentenced to a life in prison. >>> two time oscar winning actor kevin spacey accused of setting back gay rights comedian. just invented something that has never existed before, a bad time to come out. we're going to have more reaction. plus a check on your weat

will it be john taylor or jay powell?ne like powell in with taylor in the vice chair spot, and historically they have supported the chair. you could have powell talking about the rate path is correct, and john taylor saying, we should hike the rates much, much more. i think that could suggest questions about who we should be listening to? julia: is it the chair the person in charge? is, but it isir hard to find someone with greater academic chops and john taylor. more recently people have been saying, isn't this guy a little more dovish and we have been expecting. he was in boston last week. it he seemed open to the ideas that rates could be lower. if you go back a couple years, lester, he made the case that he does not think the neutral rate is too low, therefore it should be higher. julia: but do you think he went into that meeting with donald trump and mentioned any of this, donald trump would be, like, yeah, no. that: i think he would say we should be flexible, but the fed should have rules. i do not think he would in

powell, does that mean more of the same >> yes, i think so if you get jay powell which i think wouldst choice and what the market is looking for you're going to get a continuation of yellen-esque policies with a little more hawkish tint jay powell will sail through both chambers of approval, he'll get bipartisan support which will be a good win for the administration and the president wants a good win john taylor very smart individual would probably make a good fed chair but much more hawkish path and face challenges >> what this means for the dollar from here, it was on a weakening path much of the year but enjoyed a strong rebound of late >> yes, you're right, will last week alone up 1.2%. now rallied back almost 4% it was down 10%, 11% at its low point earlier this year. i think you see more strength of the dollar into year end, as we wind through kind of this tax reform and people get more comfortable that it could get done or something could get done, and then just stronger earnings and stronger growth all probably put a bid in the dollar into year end. >> in terms what have thi

be crowned and then donald trump can say you're hired and to johnny tell him you're fired jerome powell is a republican as we just heard former investment banker so a businessman which donald trump thinks is a good idea to have in his close circle of high officials in the government and he did carry through with janet yellen as decisions he supported those decisions in the past so your own power would be kind of an ideal compromise candidate between a hard line republican john taylor would be one like that who would be seen to raise interest rates sometime rather soon and more quickly than jerome paul or janet yellen and don't forget the senate which has to confirm the fed chairman there's only fifty two senators there in the republican side so a slim majority trump may need some democrats to vote for his favorite candidate tell me all the trump made it really clear early in his term that he didn't like yellen but what is wrong with yellen. there's nothing wrong with her she had a great track record as the fed head she at first seemed to be wavering to turn the interest rate in the quan

it really flipped when jerome powell was put into the list.was when we -- when the five-year part of the curve started to rally. and i think this is probably is considering how things will pan out. we have got a weaker dollar. it means any fed chair is going to have more opportunity to put interest rates up. let us not forget yellen was on the dovish side. in the chair, she saw they were coming toward the end of the cycle, felt the need to start tightening policy at any opportunity given so they would have room to cut rates after that. now, i do not see, even if you get another dove in the chair, whether they would have enough confidence in the transmission of monetary policy, in how the economy is working to keep rates very low here. guy: institutional framework of the fed is pretty important. peter: that is how it is perceived. guy: the reaction function is interesting. peter chatwell, still with us. a bloomberg you are customer, you can do what i am about to do now, which is punch in tv . you're going to get a page that looks a little l

on that one ok well right now there's talk about two other potential candidates for the fed kevin powell between the two of you had to choose which one seems to be the better choice to replace channing yellen. well there are both extremely qualified candidates but i will revert back to my hero and that's hard for me to say my hero in the one hundred plus years of federal reserve history and that is william mcchesney martin he served for the longest time of any chairman including alan greenspan he served as a private in the united states army he acted as a liaison between the soviet union and the united states he started out on wall street at a brokerage firm at the age of thirty one he became president of the new york stock exchange he studied economics at columbia university i'm not trying to bring him back from the grave lindsey don't get me wrong but what i'm trying to say is that he was very well rounded he was extremely experienced and he was a political and i think of the two potential candidates i think that jerome powell is it is much more qualified and that his back career gives

of kevin morse who really is purely kind of a finance guy that's that certainly not the case with powell well we know that you like that a ray of a background a deep resume to really bring i want to say wisdom to the fed what about stanley fischer is chair last day coming up october thirteenth again we've come more than a couple of openings here how would you fill his chair. well i think that there are many other qualified candidates some of whom happen to be on the short list i do like the idea of john taylor from stanford i certainly don't advocate for central banking being run by one individual rule even if it's got his name on it the tailor role but i do advocate for what his rule exemplifies and that is an added measure of discipline among policymakers at the fed i think that we could use somebody like him if there's going to be an insistence on having many more academics come into the fed there are several other bankers i think that are extremely qualified as well but again their names did not land on the short list right will short list resisted. though to future nominees we're ta

trump says sunday that powell, are in the running. matt: what stock futures are doing in the half hour until the start of trading. you see we are up across the board, not a lot of moves. there is not a lot of directions to risk-on/risk-off. we don't see a lot of moves in bonds. not in the bund or treasuries either. take a look at the argentinian 100 year bond. i have this up on the btv screen. you can access it on the terminal. we can see the yields here at almost 7% and this is one proxy to look at for what investors think of argentina. president won a big boost. his reform agenda -- [no audio] story is whatst is happening in the nikkei. abe.in by on a -- win by you see the yen coming under pressure as well. on a real tear at the moment, the nikkei. the other story i want to draw your attention to, what is happening with the turkish lira which has been hit hard overnight. we have seen more negative u.s. investments coming out of mr. erdogan. the bigger question is, is this the canary in the coal mine when it comes to what is happenin

points for jay powell. our thanks to dan for the view, and kevin.hat check in now with the first word news. topresident trump's legislative priorities, tax reform has taken a step forward. the road is likely to get tougher. the senate approved a budget resolution that had been signed off by house republican leaders. it will allow a tax bill to be passed without democratic votes. there are concerns about higher deficits and middle-class issues. u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson is promising to stay on the job for as long as president trump wants him. in an interview with bloomberg he signaled growing impatience with china on north korea and trade. he blames the saudi arabia and lead blocks of the diplomatic standoff with qatar. sales of previously owned homes in the u.s. rose last month. they were up 7/10 of 1% to an annual rate of $5.4 million. available properties increased by more than 6% from a year ago. spain's prime minister is ready to crack down on catalonia. they say an agreement has been reached with opposition parties on the measures u

where you could see changes is around regulatory policy that's something powell has been focused on,ecially jointly with rand by quarrels, but in terse of the hiking cycle, i anticipate it to be similar and also in the beginning the communication and style of communication will be similar under a powell fed >> we saw the possibility that tax reform could be phased in what was your take of that yesterday? would it then deliver the kind of economic growth that the administration is seeking? >> i think the reality is that we just don't know what tax reform is ultimately going to look like. we had some headlines flash, a lot of push back amongst lob lobbyists and other groups, now that could change before we get the policy or that first draft from brady i think we're just still very much getting early details testing the waters i think we're far from actually having ironed out details. >> as we look at various components of the economy working now and creating thisny lease on life and what has been a long-running recovery, it feels like manufacturing is strong we've seen that in some ind

jerome powell, what are your takes over and if jerome powell were to be the guy in charge, what wouldt mean? apart from janet yellen, he's the least likely to rock the boat. he makes slightly more hawkish that yellen but not significantly. yellen says there is a put rates of seven times by the end of 2019 and a market is only pricing two or three more rises. we think rates will go faster than the market expects. estimates that interest rates the to be quite a bit more higher. will the market see him as the taylor rule or more hawkish? will i think markets assume there is a higher path then currently expected. continuing oren powell, but taylor and walter yellent hawkish while more dovish.e either taylor has never had a conflicting opinion with the majority -- powell has never had a conflicting opinion or in some way he thinks he should be voicing it. let's get away from the fed and political talk and get into asset talk. we still have able market that is pretty long in the tooth. equities still don't seem expensive and volume is low. would you buy u.s. stocks here? mike: we are still

jerome powell got a boost after reports suggested he is the top pick for steven mnuchin. he reportedly has been recommended to president trump powell's odds of selection are the other front-runner, kevin warsh and far ahead of fed chair janet yellen i guess it's ul up all up to dod trump. our colleagues will speak to steven mnuchin, first on cnbc at 13: 13:35. let's talk about the fed with patrick spencer from robert b. baer. great to have you on the show. there is a lot of concern about the lack of inflation. fomc members are trying to look for it it's nowhere to be found do you think it's a temporary phenomenon or longer lasting >> i think yellen will run the economy hot despite inflation. so irrespective of that, they're committed to cutting the fed's balance sheet. they have talked about reducing that if you look at the financial markets, they're predicting a 90% chance of a fed hike in december you know, the script is normalization, and i suspect even though the dot plot from the fed is considerably higher than consensus rates, higher rates are coming >> is she right

next isjerome powell, a member of the federal board, and has expressed on the —— and has its roots in then there is kevin warsh. he has been on the fed bought for more than a decade, so knows the gig- for more than a decade, so knows the gig. but he may want interest rates go. and he was warned about inflation. whoever rodez will have a ahead steering away difficultjob ahead steering away from historically low interest rates. with me is nandini ramakrishnan, global market strategist atjp morgan asset management. good morning. good to see you. so is samir hussein was talking to some of the candidates. there are few fair, powell, the continuity candidate, then taylor, who could be a little bit more unpredictable. yes, there isa bit more unpredictable. yes, there is a difference between powell having experience and working with the taylor for several years, and taylor, who is eight professor who invented the taylor rule, and according to that rule, they should be higher than where they are now. this is a continuity candidate versus somebody who is a little bit mawkish. it is important to

kevin: we watching john taylor, jerome powell. i think it is mr. powell. i will level with you.y at 5:00 and the president put on an instagram. saying, we are going to get the announcement last week -- next week. tom: kevin, thank you so much. he is from revere, massachusetts and he is what you want and i want in an fbi agent. the kim of through the food chain of the fbi and served duty in among other places miami and new york city, it is in a many know is doing a day after day for the fbi, bill gavin of boston. wonderful to have you with us today. what happens when someone is arrested? do they literally knock on the door of their house? i think that probably we are ahead of ourselves with this whole mueller affair. first of all, nothing should have come out already based on the fact that anything that goes before a grand jury is covered by the fact that you cannot say anything come eight is supposed to be secret. i'm sure that it did not come out through mueller's committee itself. my personal observation is that it probably seeped out from somebody that was on the grand jury i

warsh, yellen, cohn, and powell are all in the running. the divide between madrid and barcelona continues to grow, sending spanish funds lower and much lower. we begin with a big issue, wage growth surging. robert stan on the fed's next move. >> this is confirmation we are getting real wage growth. >> 2.9% wage growth is the headline. >> i think that is good for american workers. >> looking at the wage growth, you are looking at the unemployment number, which is the bright news here. >> remember, janet yellen said in a healthy labor market wage growth is between 3% and 4%. so we are just about there. >> as long as wages begin to rise towards 3%, they certainly are. and i think the fed is a slamdunk in terms of raising rates in december. >> this confirms a story that has been permeating the market. the data is strong enough and the fed has said they will tighten, therefore december is pretty much in the bag. >> i think people will rightly interpret that the fed can move. they will go in december. we think two and three times next year. jona

jay powell is more dove than he is anything. a continuation of similar policies and likely the best for both markets. >> could trump strike this balancing act of also trying to, you know, give in to some of the critics, to some of the republican hartliners by actually making taylor the vice chair? and in that sense you have the top which is dovish and hawkish at the same time do you think that would work >> anything is possible with the president, that's for sure it would when the time was right put a louder voice at a more active tightening when we do have inflation inflation continues to be the best story. >> where is inflation? the fed is desperately looking for it it can't be found at this point. every time we hear from janet yellen, she says it will come. if we believe hard enough, it will come. i'm not sure that it will ever come. >> the bond market is singing its own tune that inflation is a worry of others and not a reality of the markets. in some ways this has already happened i do believe if you get tax reform, tax ref

i think powell can withstand it.he back of a lot of people's minds in the market. nejra: when you look at the 10 year yield, talking about curves, i am wondering how, in the short-term term, you trade around the technical of the 10 year yield. i know you see rates going higher, but that is a more longer-term call, right? george: but the experience we have had since lower yields in september is a starting point. we end the year higher in rates. actually, this week is pivotal in many ways. we will see who is the next fed, the boe, and a lot of data. also, the treasuries will announce their plans for the debt borrowing. and the tax policies on the table. so there is a lot of catalyst that will turn the corner and push rates higher. tom: greg valliere, thank you. be careful with your phone, be careful with who you talk to, always look for wires on waitresses in restaurants. it is dangerous in washington right now. [laughter] greg: happy halloween. tom: he is going as a lobbyist, folks. greg valliere, thank you. we will c

jay powell seems to be leading the race with a 38% probability.ollowed by stanford economics professor john taylor. reappointing fed chair yellen at 23%. kevin warsh whose star is said to have faded. my reporting was that his star was never that high. 21%. and gary cohn, once the shoe-in for the job, down at single digits, 6% these odds reflect the latest media headlines. i think they're kind of worthless and not adding a lot of new information it's harder, but maybe a more informative way to do it is puzzle through who wants what and who is whispering in the president's ear. president trump would appear to want low rates and high stocks those are pro yellen and powell ideas. pro deregulation which is leg yellen and maybe powell, taylor and warsh are the candidates for that the gop congress, they would be not yellen, though powell, taylor and warsh would come in and they want a rules-based monetary policy that would favor taylor democrats in congress would want dodd-frank, they want yellen in that regard. and they favor current policy framework. t

it has to be powell. >> it doesn't have to be anybody. the market will care for seven minutes.body who is on that list knows that he wants low interest rates. he's telegraphed it. the world knows, they know i don't care how hawkish they are right now or they think they are. >> it's about the pace of the way they -- >> do you think the pace -- it doesn't matter who he picks. it doesn't matter. >> there are also a lot of other vacancies on the fed too the fed chair is not the only one deciding -- >> there's a lot of -- >> -- everything >> he can completely change the composition. >> he won't do that. he'll telegraph the fact that he wants low rates. it will be a hidden message to them >> do we not believe the federal reserve is independent the federal reserve is independent. if taylor gets in there, he's going to have a different approach to interest rates and it will be very disruptive >>> as you all know, halloween weekend is kicking off today, in honor of all things spooky and in lieu of the final trades, our traders are bringing you some scary good stocks for your portfolio.