while some traders are concerned powell could be -- the powell put could be exhausting, like stone'sresident told us the economy is ticking along nicely. signs of what causes a recession, these excesses which are banks getting levered up, halfing leverage, commercial construction out of hand, those telltale signs aren't there so i would bet no recession in 2019. from joining us now singapore is mark cranfield, bloomberg mliv strategist. is it fair to call this a howl put? it seems a bit cheeky. mark: it probably is overstating it a little. he has made a very small tweak to the message. it is important, nonetheless, but he certainly hasn't guaranteed any thaw in equity markets by what he said. the fact that the most powerful central banker in the world is suggesting that he's not too far away from his rate target is a big deal. we will probably hear more in the minutes when they come out from the fed later today. about how of an idea the other members of the fed board who see rates peaking in the early part of next year and we will also get the dot plots in december, which may show a

powell matters most. who cares what they said powell is the only one that matters. >> on top of what john was talking about, scott, the one thing and the reason i was pushing back with joe is we're up 400 points. you come in leaning. >> not if you think what the fed chair just did was end the correction and set the stock market for a rally >> two elements -- one, powell, two, the g20 everything we have seen going into the end of this week, scott, we talked about it yesterday, those spy calls they expire. unusual activity for you, the xli. 20,000 xli calls they buy the smh yesterday then the spiders everything is in very, very short, extremely short time frames powell is number one >> i think what you're seeing now is you see short coverage in the market the consequence of a lower dollar takes to you the russell 2000 i don't know if you initiate here >> you don't know what's going to happen on saturday. >> true. >> we could be sitting here tomorrow if you're on the show and trump could say no chance for a

a lot of people crediting the president who offered criticism of powell, did he pressure powell to make change in what he was saying? got it tell you we're expecting a bit after pop minutes into the close. we're getting it. the dow up 613 points as you can see right here. the nasdaq having a great day up 200 points. tell you quickly before i go, housing a major turn around had been negative. not now. all of those stocks higher, higher, higher. liz, back to you. liz: tripoint ceo says it is excellent news here on fox business. jerome powell decided just below neutral on the rates. everything back positive for the year except the little guys, small and big caps, struggling to keep up with the big siblings. eric marshall. comanager. hodges small-cap fund. when does it come along along with the rest, russell was. >>> russell was ahead of market. the sell-off last couple months, small caps taken it on the chin the worst. we think it is probably areas of the market that is the most oversold. sentiment had been very, very negative. and we see really good up side in individual stocks within the

>> i'm going to lunch with him in a few hours my view is -- >> trump or powell >> powell. wrote a book several years ago that talked about relationships between fed chairmen and presidents over the years. i have found and most presidents have found that the wise course of action for the president is to say as little as possible about what the fed is doing and about the people on the federal reserve, open market committee or the board let them do their job. by in large the fed has been very, very credible and very, very effective over the years. the best thing is for presidents to do their business and let the fed do their usiness >> but that's not what's happening here >> it's not, but if he were to reflect a bit on how other presidents have handled this, he would come to the conclusion that's the best course of action for the country, the best course of action for the president and the fed is by in large independent and it was made independent by those who created it about 100 years ago because independence was considered critical to their ability to act effectively. >> w

we are all over this powell rally.o anywhere. >> announcer: the bond report is sponsored by pimco >>> fed chairman jay powell is forecasting continued solid growth for the u.s. kpee that sounds like good news for the travel industry usually first to feel the pain during a economic downturn backup but our next guest isn't worry let's bring in the ceo for the americas intercontinental hotels group. great to have you with us. >> thank you melissa. >> where are you seeing the most demand in terms of the kind of the traveler you are accommodating this these days. >> melissa, if you look at rising gdp in the u.s. and globally, low unemployment, rising wages, these are really good tailwinds for the travel industry and hotel business especially at intercontinental hotel group in the u.s., europe and asia and china we see rising demand look, in this benign economy we are executing our strategy growing our business we are over 5,500 hotels open around the world today, another 1,800 under development. over 7 now hotels welcoming

powell apparentlymore flexible in today's commentary.he charge what is boeing and salesforce was big on the s&p post earning and tiffany was the laggard. fueling the rally was fed chair powell's comments signalling that rate hikes play slow down sooner than expected here's what he said. >> interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the range of estimates of that level that would be neutral for the economy. that is neither speeding up nor slowing down growth. >> joining us to talk about this and the markets today, michael block from third seven advisers. mike, it did sound different than what he said in early october that we were a long way from neutral. >> yeah. >> was the market right to celebrate? >> i think the market was right to take it as a positive that he moderated the language a little bit, but the way you get a 2.3% move in the s&p is in a settle change in the fed chair's message, half of all stocks down in 20 months and all the surveys and the market itself compressed in its defensive crou

so what do you do if you are jerome powell?you raise interest rates to stop these nonbankers, that is what we did in 2006, so i say no, no the fed can make sure they play by the same rules, if there are outliers, you don't raise rates, you shut them down the fed has that power, so use it what concerns me, is the feds will miss the mark in 2006, bernanke could have said we will not why am i so worried about this the housing numbers suggest sales are collapsing right now and they are running substantially behind last year's pace home prices are down 8.9 although there are pockets that are lower than, 7.4 months of supply so sales going down, supply going up, and rates going up that's a recipe for disaster no wonder powell had to change its tune only one part of the border weakness which includes auto, and other stuff pales in comparison to the housing slow down let me read you part of a conference call from an outfit called redfin. since then rising ratings and home prices has caused buyers industry wide. talking about sales decl

stock getting a lift from jay powell.hink all eyes are going to shift, we have got retail numbers after the close but all eyes shift to the g20 meeting. i want to bring in the owner of stock switch, melissa arno and also with us, gary b. smith. we just had jeff saut on, some key numbers he was looking at really held up. he's talking 3,000 by the end of the year for the subpoe&p? >> by 2019, i think he said, right? charles: no, this year. >> i'm very bullish on the market, i believe there's a possibility between now and the next ten days we could have a lot more volatility. people are thinking after this good news today, we might have another steep dropoff. we might. then turn back around. charles: why the steep dropoff? >> because there's so much going on with this summit coming up. even though we had great news today, i'm telling you, it's not all clear skies and sailing yet but it might be within the next ten days, if this summit goes well. tariffs are more important, i always felt like that, as far as the effect on the

nejra: those were prepared comments from chairman powell.talked about being a long way from neutral just a month ago. interesting if you look at the slight difference that happened in the equity market and bond market. s&p rallied the most since march, meanwhile the 10 year flattening a bit in today's session. the 10 year yield down five basis points. if we drop down below 3% it will be the first time since september 18. futures down 0.6%. markets took a little while to catch up to the bond markets. the bond markets had already fully discounted the more dovish tone that the markets read from powell yesterday. we will dig deep into everything the fed chair set at the market. up 6/10 of 1%. ceopeak to the norsk hydro at 6:30 a.m. u.k. time. us to discuss in the aluminum and broader commodity markets. let's check in on the markets in asia. juliette saly in singapore has more. we see a rally on the msci asia-pacific index, but not quite with the strength we saw in the u.s. session. perhaps asian traders turning their attention to the g20? they c

then the october volatility started just two weeks later with powell. talked about being far from neutral the perception was that he would hike this economy into a recession. he certainly did a lot of reversing of that yesterday. that's important the bonds tipped below 3% for a minute >> they were there for a cup of coffee, but we're watching it. oil is at 49.80 right now. yet oil stocks rose yesterday as oil weakened that always gets one's attention up >> it does there was a broader risk-on move that was hitting every equity class there. look, if there's any reason for futures to be negative now, it may be because oil is below 50 oil below 50 cuts into the key part of the u.s. economy here, meaning texas. oil below 50 from ten years ago certainly. >> that's important. we have to go, will the markets be higher at year-end than now >> they will be. >> i will hold you to that >> please do >> see all those people out there? they're all holding you to that. michael p michael, happy holidays. see you soon. >>> stocks for you to watch today. tribune media's s

powell is a man of great distinction.ou don't trifle him with this he's a person who has rigor. he won't know what to do with the president that frankly shows tremendous disrespect in the institutions this fed has gone 200 basis points in about three years. real rates are zero. one of the slowest hiking cycles that we had in recent time what would have happened if he's president when green span is doing 200 plus >> you saw what happened to vernackie. it was a big mistake we look at the way the fed is raised we should be looking at mortgage rates. it is 5% that makes it so very difficult to just by selling your house and buying new house because you are making it so it is more expensive. this was not a great quarter for retail you have possible slow down in retail gm does not lay off people you have a slow down for housing. what else is left? amazon did well. amazon and walmart, lower prices for consumers and oil and gas have been an issue it is good for the airlines but good for consumers >> consumers are an important par

powell, jerome powell will speak in about ten minutes. we're going to carry it because this is a very, very important speech. regrettably my time is up but neil, it's yours. neil: i know with this "fox nation" thing we don't have time to bond and talk anymore. have a good one. we are waiting to hear from jerome powell, the fed chairman. we always are looking for these signals we might get out of the fed boss, whether he will react to the president's criticisms that he is not even a little bit happy with the guy he chose to lead the federal reserve or respond to market volatility or something to say about the global trade wore, how that affecting things. we do know the fed chairman has been speaking publicly and privately to anyone who wants to hear that he is concerned about what has been happening to asset prices and whether there is the potential they could plunge. by the way not just stocks, he talked about real estate. another reminder there, home sales unexpectedly slid close to 9% in the latest period. there are a lot of concerns we

blaming jerome powell for the selloff. factory closures. ,nd trumps dinner date president trump and xi jinping meat. meet.kudlow -- larry kudlow there is a good chance of the deal. >> welcome to bloomberg daybreak. tiffany is out. .t was ok on the earnings alix: it was ugly. japan comparable sales were up .ust 2%, versus 9% the u.s. coming in at 5%. >> the chinese were up over estimates. alix: gross margins were up. anyway, you can get me that christmas present. the take away from yesterday is the markets did not reverse the rally on monday. that was the takeaway. s&p futures up by a 11. euro-dollar flat. there is not much market movement. the 10 year yield is 3.05. up,ct bidders are showing so we will see how we handle it going forward. crude not going anywhere. it's all going to be g20 for whatever asset class. david: it is g20. now it is time for bloomberg first take. we are joined by peggy collins. and by ira jersey. we have to start with the fed, with the president and the fed, because president trump said in not even

a day after trump slammed powell in a "washington post"

a jay powell the range of we get another rate hike on we will be at 2.5.re is a great range on the fed right now. are advising our estimates potentially with new economic data coming in. i don't think those rate hikes are set in stone. take a pause, our next guest says that if there is a cataclysm, the fed will raise rates next month. the fed governor and professor of economics at the chicago school of business, with little inflation pressure, the fed will likely take that path. randy joins us from hong kong. december likely in play. when do you think might be appropriate then, to take that cause -- pause? on theit depends evolution of inflation. we just got the gdp report with inflation, still very modest territory below 2%. growing at is still 3% or so. i think that allows the fed to take a pause without being concerned that inflation will get out of control. it is ackley white house said they will be looking very carefully. >> the former fed governor thinks that there will be a pause. u.n. and others were changing your view just a little bit, really. gl

david: powell or president. >> powell, but i, i take your point on oil prices. david: i am getting back to question, nobody concerned about fact that president seem to be dictating terms to powell. >> no, i'm not afraid of that. >> now. >> we have a committee that determines the rates, they have meetings and take notes, this critically important that inch recognize that, the santee of independents of fed has not been compromised, especially president trump and his sentiments. i don't think it ever would be, you would have an upheaval from congress, so, no. >> 100%, i think trump is being trump. as he has always been. this is not new news for him on call out fred. fed. david: a koen in-- coincidence, the paul volcker book coming out, the saying that ronald rean dictated to him to not race rates it has happened before? >> i was to say, fyi. the president was kind of right, i think that powell of getting ahead of what he had to do to maintain low rates of up plague, and high -- inflation and high unemployment. i am not saying we want to listen to president. >> are

back to the powell put. joining us now is michael o'sullivan, regional chief investment officer at credit suisse. thank you for joining us on such an important market day. the rally is a little bit lower. what are markets looking at? do they worry about the g20 or will they continue with the powell put? so, i think given where markets are and many equity market prices have been depressed, risk appetite has been very low. one is the fed and powell. the other for emerging markets and europe is the g20. for those markets to join the u.s. what we need to see is an absence of trade tension for -- at the g20. ideally, you would want some kind of cosmetic trade deal between the u.s. and china. china will offer more access to american companies if they promise to reform state owned enterprises and the u.s. will stop the of position of further tariffs on china. that would be ideal. globalu would get a more and a more full equity rally. noticeable this morning that the asian market fell rather than joined last night.

tom: let's go to the powell speech.ich a little bit explains the pressure he is under. the real inflation-adjusted 10 year yield. i've taken cleveland cpi, here is so-called normal precrisis up near 2%. we are nowhere back anywhere near that. we are a little bit back is what i would say. francine: this is what i have. i'm looking at the fed in the dollar having a strong 2018 amid some of the rate hikes. we are looking and tracing some of the fed funds's trading rates. attack on the's fed could be used as evidence of disunity between the administration and central-bank. that will hasten the dollar's demise. we will continue focusing on the dollar. brexit. onto theresa may has backed down in a key brexit battle with parliament. writes, the government had intended to prevent the house of commons from changing the terms of may's agreement before politicians finally vote on it. according to one official, the team has now dropped this tactic in the face of protest from politicians. aren't you chief brexit negotiator? on a ser

they ate, it's powell thinks, powell thinks, t does he have to say about those things -- people have to realize it's not what they think, it's what jay powell thinks. >> tariffs continue, but not really seeing it taking a bite out of the economy. that does not seem to be a big worry yet. when it comes to the stock market, he did acknowledge the recent volatility. he talked about how, you know, if the stock market rises and people feel wealthier and if they think it will keep rising, they may spend more money so it can have an impact, but he said in the end, it's one of many factors, so i would say he dismissed that to a certain extent. he spoke very clearly, simply, and definitely about the importance of the fed's , how laws and regulations that give them that independence help them do their job. we are still aching about donald bashing --ent fed still thinking about donald trump's recent fed bashing. alan greenspan, former fed chair for 18 years, was asked about trade today in a conversation at new york university. trade policies are insane. they hurt everyone. maybe they heard the

let's send it over to steve liesman for more on powell's message to the market. did powell give in >> some people characterize it that way i'd say he redirected from a legal standpoint perhaps but what he did for sure was ignite a powerful rally saying the fed is not on a preset course, the market wanted that and that the fed is just below the range of neutral estimates >> interest rates are still low by historical standards and they remain just below the range of estimates of that level that would be neutral for the economy, that is neither speeding up nor slowing down growth. >> let's unpack that they say it's not as dovish as markets think. the top of the range is only one hike away from the bottom end and but three from the middle and 5 from the top it could mean anything along those lineses. he also affirmed the fed's plans to the shore up rates. the dollar shot down here is what happened in the futures market a rise or percentage chance of a rate hike in december and a little bit lower for june which is where the first hike for 2019 is priced in. and the ma

did powell listen to cramer? powell listen to trump take your pick all of the above wti crude prices falling below 50 bucks a barrel for the first time since october of last year. jim cramer was up and tweeting at 4:18 today. i answered his tweet this morning. >> did you >> i did two days of data dependent fed, oil goes below 50. one and wait is the new neutral. i replied with amazing, with a small "a." cramer has a few followers or something, then my twitter feed exploded let's get to mike santoli for more on the rally. we have katie stockton coming on i don't know why we need her after i saw you yesterday on "closing bell. you were amazing >> you didn't listen to the disclaimers. >> you know nothing. we have a lot of people around here that know nothing and are never in doubt >> just trying to dial out the lens and look at the context of this move. >> 2,800, you had me worried about 2,800. >> it's not worry, it's a challenge. we have the chart. >> if you look at 2,800, you drew a line across on "closing bell" -

obviously fed chair jay powell will speak in an hour.estors focused on that as we begin with tech stocks, though nasdaq higher, on pace for a third straight positive session. the tech sector is 13% away from its most recent 52-week high you've got microsoft and apple that continue to battle it out for the title of most valuable company in terms of market cap microsoft briefly crossing that threshold earlier in trading today. joining us is paul meeks and paul holland guys, it's great to have you with us on a big day as this race, paul holland, between microsoft and apple now, the divergence over the past couple of months is striking. what do you think is going on here >> well, i think what's fascinating about that is you could have said this 15 or 20 years ago. these two heavyweights are back in the ring battling it out and i think is news in and of itself but you've got two very different businesses going on. microsoft is almost an entirely software-driven business with xbox and some other parts of it. and apple has done a brilliant job

the range of neutral as powell said is uncertain. is very suspicious or skeptical of any estimate that tries to pen the number down. the best way to identify neutral is to keep raising rates and track at one points at starts to impinge on growth. you look at the market performance over the last few weeks and you wonder whether we have not reached that point. the economic data continues to be strong. the fed's view of the economy doesn't seem to change. i think they will play it by ear, watch the data as a comes in. we got a positive 2017. it would not be shocking if we got a positive 2019. rishaad: [indiscernible] think that is what is in their models in real terms. rishaad: even then, it is usually accommodative. michael: yes. fomc participants keep saying from a policy is still an accommodative stance. we are still well or just below neutral. it is a very fuzzy range as we are getting into that range of estimates of what neutral is. expect the you would fed has to go beyond neutral before they start to slow the economy down and get

jay powell gets it, too. he wants people to know that he now understands that there's another side, the slowing side, the side with cracks, the side that robert kaplan was telling you about with the questions he asked. is it too late yes, if we get four more hikes, no if we only get one more he now realizes raising rates isn't the goal he realized his goal isn't to hasten the end of cycle talk, that everyone accepts as the outcome of his rate hikes and the president's tariff increases. so thank you, robert kaplan, forgiving powell the opportunity to walk us back from the precipice without ever contradicting himself. we now know powell is concerned that we could be at the end of the economic expansion that's a soft reversal of his earlier position from a month ago when he was so wedded to the explosive growth h guy is clearly paying attention to the data now. you know what? that's all you can ask for by the way, there's a big reason why we were able to rally today. stick with cramer. - i love my grandma. - ann

powell says the u.s. but that the global economic outlook at had worsened from the upbeat news of 2017. >> i think this year has been -- has seen a gradual skmipping away you still see solid growth but you see kind of growing signs of a bit of a slow dodown. >> there's strong earnings and guidance the u.s. consumer is in excellent shape. powell said the u.s. economy is at a point where it has to go too slow and too fast. krishna guahar write there is may be a hint of policy optionality here though this is very different from signaling a change of tacks. there are brexit concerns, the downdraft in stocks and they reduced the chances of rate hikes not so much this year but next year. december trading at a probability of a rate hike, 76%. that's down from where it was. still a pretty good percentage there banking on that rate hike, and next year may it shows 49%, that that had been a march hike of above 50% so that's been pushed forward and down and now we can't even get to 50% or everyone 40% for that secon

you heard from the fed chair jay powell.y any indication that he would be hoping -- halting this rate hike too soon. we will have to see what tencent does. that will affect how they trade. let's have a look at that we can. tencent, big earnings. we have seen analysts come out and keep their forecast. some of them have cut their price targets for the stock. up, what i wanted to mention is where we go with the dollar. obviously the chinese renminbi. whether or not they will hold the exchange rate below seven, and a lot of ways avoiding any unnecessary dramatics or rhetoric when it comes to the currency there. place, wegs taking had employment numbers out of australia today. yvonne: that was quite volatile. of course, we will talk about the consent earnings. what a blowout when it came to the earnings. people were expecting single digits when it came to growth. we saw double-digit. one-time investment gains really helping out some of the weakness and pressure that we see. david: for a long time we were waiting for the other inv

then the federal reserve chairman, jay powell, jerome powell, what will he say about the interest rates and fed intentions. later in the week president heads to the g20 summit. he gets there friday. he is expected to meet with china's president xi xinping. we have lindsey bell and erin gibbs and kevin kelly. lindsey, let me start with you, i guess it was bound to happen. markets up. sometimes just more buyers than sellers, right but anything maybe to the strong early start with some of these holiday sales? is that maybe okay, the consumer is 2/3 of the economy helping out a little bit? >> yeah, i definitely think investors are encouraged by the numbers we got over the weaken and last week of black friday sales. you should have heard the ceos talk about how confident they are in the consumer and how good the selling season will be. will they be able to go past the strong comeses of last year. charles: erin, is there still truth to that? >> looking for revenues to turn into profits. we seen concerns about higher wages and transport costs. charles: that is separate issue. target brought th

vonnie: so how would you interpret fed chair powell over the last -- powell's comments over the last few weeks. did he walk back something he was sorry he communicated to the market? ash: possibly, but it is hard to know. it is hard to know exactly back in october what he was seeing and what has changed over the course of about 60 days and what he saw yesterday. that when powell was talking about the rate today approaching and being pretty close to that natural rate, it does make a lot of sense that what he is saying is correct. if you take a very simple theoretical framework, theory would suggest if you are lending money overnight, there is no a returnu should earn much greater than the expected rate of inflation because you are not taking much risk. so most people would argue the natural rate of inflation going forward is somewhere around 2% to 2.5% and your overnight for effective rate today is right usund 2.2%, so that tells the price of money at the front end is fair. as long as it is fair it is telling you you are getting close if not at the national rate where supply and deman

for now, let's toss it to the half >>> i'm scott wopner, one down, one to go, after fed chair jay powell sends stocks surging, can g20 talks keep the market momentum going it's 1:00 noon, this is the "halftime report." >>> the dow coming off its best day in eight months, the focus turns to the meeting of global leaders in argentina as trade worries recapture wall street's attention. >>> and crude's wild swing sends oil below $50 for the first time in a year. putting oil on pace for its biggest monthly slide since 2008 >>> plus, the super size upgrade. wul wall street firm putting a buy rating on mcdonald's, with one of the highest price targets on the street. the "halftime report" starts now. >>> welcome. good to have you with us on this thursday, here to debate and trade the biggest stories of the day, joe terranova, john najarian and sarat satee welcome back it's nice to is he you stocks are trying to build on their best day in eight months, after the speech from fed chair jay powell, all eyes turning to argentina for the g20. the question now, is the stage set for an end of year rally

the president lashing out at jay powell yesterday, ahead of a speech from powell this afternoon.iness will take you there live. we have full coverage of the chairman's comments today at 12:00 p.m. eastern. he is speaking at the economic club of new york. stay with us for that speech. meanwhile, we're on g-20 countdown, the focus is on president trump's working dinner with china's president on saturday in argentina at the g-20 meeting, the question on whether they make a deal on trade is up in the air. >> the president said there is a good possibility that we can make a deal and he is open to it. on the other hand, if these conditions i mentioned a few moments ago are not met, not dealt with, the president has said, look, he's perfectly happy to stand on history policies. maria: investors are showing signs of optimism this morning. we have a rally underway. dow industrials set to open up 120 points, the s&p is up 10 points and the nasdaq is up 35 points. we are waiting on the second reading of the third quart gdp. that is due out in an hour and-a-half. it is expected to be a gdp g

reading too much dovishness into jay powell's comments?e are about to find out where e nurest of the fed stands thmites from the last meeting are due out. we will have them for you coming up in a moment stay tuned cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group - how the world advances. ♪ and then, more jobs robegan to appear.. what started with one job spread all around. because each job in energy creates many more in this town. >>> fed officials at the november meeting almost all thought another rate hike would be warranted fairly soon, but a few disagreed with the timing, not necessarily the direction, and a couple saw the funds rate near neutral, warning it could unduly slow the expansion. this is important here future statements they discussed might remove the language signaling further gradual increases ahead. they may rework the statement using language to make future rate hikes more data dependent overall they did see a po

the markets reacted to powell's the comments and now they are weigh up to t waking up to the fed that the the fed is cautious. >> what exact did jerome powell say that sparked the rally and of this magnitude steve liesmanigs into that for us. >> jerome poum igniting a powerful market rally saying the fed is not on a preset course to raise rates and the fed j ist below the range of neutral estimates. that's the rate that neither slows more speeds up the economy. >> interest rates are still low by historical standards and remain just below the range of estimates of that level that would be neutral for the economy. that is neither speeding up naurp slowing down grhath. >> all t suggest attention the fed has some but not a lot of work to do. he added rates remain low by storical standards and affirms the plan to gradually raise uttes with less certainty than the past. >> i liken it walki into a room full of furnish trurn tur and suddenly the lights go out. you lowdo -on go a little bit less quickly and feel your way more. that's the naugh you feel your way more. under uncertainty you beca

right after midday when fed chair powell, began to speak.oints higher, a gain of 600 plus by the close. let's go into this snapshot. the dollar was weaker. gold, actually, trading down after hours now. oil fell to almost a $50 mark -- the $50 mark. it is taking back up after hours -- ticking back up after hours. the size of the moves is notable here. wayfair, an internet sales company, had a big jump on positive earnings. amazon just blasted higher. square and many of the fintech, paypal, banks were also higher. caterpillar pacing gains for the industrial group. if we go into the bloomberg, right ahead of the fed chair comments, the dollar trading near records. you could see that reflected by the fact that bulls have been holding their strongest long positions in some time. ramy: tech was a big part of the ack, wasack -- bounceb it renewed confidence from the bulls? su: traders i spoke to said it would likely be a mix and that you did have that strong performance by salesforce.com boosting the software and related stocks in that cloud space.

powell and g-20. fed minutes on thursday. sales force earnings we'll get as well. >> yep that's coming. a number of tech stocks, including adobe. >> let's get to the judge. >>> carl, thanks i'm scott wapner and welcome to the most critical week of the year for your money. fed and trade front and center as stocks stage a bear market bounce this is the "halftime report" and it's 12 noon >> announcer: a pivotal week for stocks is under way. we have a bounce from the bear if we don't get bullish news on wednesday and meetings don't go well this weekend will the floor fall in? one call to double down in emerging markets is this a golden opportunity to buy one big name biotech the "halftime report" starts right now. >>> welcome. good to have you with us on this monday here to debate the biggest stories of the day our panel also with us cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. the dow seeing its best gain in three gains. fed chairman powell speaking in new york friday's g-20 in argentina expected meeting between president trump

jay powell continues that discussion. he is talking now about fed independence now with the allusions to some of the criticism that has come from the u.s. president. trump treated -- tweeted multiple times he was not happy with interest rates and things there are better things to do with the money and expressed disappointment with his appointee. jay powell said the mandate [indiscernible] we are just trying to do our job . we are doing just fine, saying it is apart from short-term political considerations and the independence of the federal reserve means they have protections from political involvement. that allows them to serve the public. we will listen in on that, you can track it on tliv . let's get you to first word news with jenna dagenhart. reporter: theresa may is claiming victory in her fight to win a brexit deal, saying she has got cabinet backing for her plan. she emerged from five hours to admit more battles lie ahead. seen as a collective decision which some are saying implies the vote was not unanimous.

charles: guys, let me bring up powell. i want -- he laid out the four concerns, the four worries for the federal reserve. i think it is important for everyone active in the stock market what the fed thinks are the biggest riskses to the economy. ranking number one, excessive leverage that can lead to a fire-sale. number two, a run on the banks. we know what that is all about. you think banks are going out of business, you bum rush them. excessive debt leading to boom and bust cycles. the fed seems least worried about bubbles. although investors hear about bubbles all the time, scott. would that list match your concern concerns about the economy and market? >> maybe not at the moment, charles. there are good things for the fed to know b. obviously look back to 07 and '08 the bernanke fed was not at least thinking about those things. that is something went by their window a couple times and they still denied it. we got in the comment what we did. i laughing at keith's comment powell said they know how real money works. ever

this was chairman powell speaking about rates.owell: interest rates are low by historical standards and just below the range of estimates of that level that would be neutral for the economy. that is neither speeding up or slowing down growth. jonathan: was that a statement of fact or a dovish turn? krishna: it is a statement of fact. what is redeeming in that back fromis the walk all the stuff they were talking about in september and august. we will not stop at neutral and this artifact about neutral rates. know e hell nose? walk -- s? this is reorienting things in the right way. jonathan: if that was the objective, perfect success. whether reclaiming optionality means a dovish outcome for the federal reserve. that could mean interest rates next year the no one expects. priya: a lot will depend on the actual data. if data continues to slow, it has to come from the inflation. spike in inflation and the fed uses that on the hawkish front. the overgrowth is not helping. trade tariffs are not helping. the optionality also assumes they

the powell 2019 plan.irman says america's economy is strong and could face headwinds next year. good morning and welcome. this is the european open. i'm alongside anna edwards in london. anna: let's talk about what is going on in these markets. flow, powell's comments, where did it leave us? stocks where the biggest gainers and losers are. e going higher. we see some mining companies hire. there is a mining flavor to the the stoxx 600. let's look at the downside. there's an interesting story playing out. ams is the biggest fallers. now still there but down just 1.3%. the cinema operator is down by 5.9%. down by 5.2%.pita some negative headlines about their cancer screening. let's get a first word news update. you has called a summit for november 25 to sign up on the u.k. divorce plan. after a marathon five hours of talks, prime minister theresa may described approval for the 585 page draft brexit deal as a collective decision. ae now needs to persuade rebellious parliament to follow suit and back her plan.

>> i had -- i have lunch with chairman powell each month and we swap anecdotes and stories. i was just going to say that i believe the fed and the administration have similar goals, that is to say, not inflationary growth, and i think that over time, that will become more and more apparent. and i also will applaud chairman powell for breaking out of the mold, low unemployment is bad, it is going to cause inflation, no it's not. no, the dollar collapse, that will cause inflation. >> could the president install a dove on the fed at some point? >> i believe there are still two appointments to be made, okay? but i don't want to conjecture on that. >> why not put a dove in there? >> look, i don't want to conjecture on it. >> the president may be open to it, someone with a different mindset. >> i don't even want to put words in his mouth on any of that stuff, that's hypothetical. and as you know i hate hypotheticals. as i'm saying j. powell has said publicly in his speeches that these old fed model, more people working at low employment is bad, he doesn't buy it, he said that publ

we hear from jay powell after other officials paint a mixed picture. the prime minister backing down from a key battle in parliament. is it a risk for theresa may's deal? and trade optimism. larry kudlow was hopeful for a breakthrough at the g20 but washington will not hold back on terra if there is no progress -- tariffs if there is no progress. manus: a warm welcome to the show. theresa may goes on tour. visiting? the pound is virtually flat as we start the trading day. we have done our survey. we spoke to 17 strategist and fund managers. quite a substantial majority, 45% suggest this deal will get voted through. 134 on a vote through. 125 on a novo -- no vote. interesting. goldman sachs said you need a one million barrel a day cut to bolster the market. $50, you got credit. thrifty 50. good morning. nejra: good morning. definitely still focusing on european politics today. some saying cable could drop as low as 110. 125.are questioning salvinine from italy, and demaio are involved on the ground discussions. italy's debt target must be closer to 2% f

that's because jay powell said they're just below the neutral rate. when you look at the fed fund rate, which is between 2 and 2.25%, this is the equilibriueq. the fed chair made a comment saying he sees no dangerous excesses in the stock market. speaking of the market, let's take a look at the big movers on the dow. home builder stocks higher. caterpillar, boeing. the biggest movers as well as you nighted health. a lot of investors moving their money back into risk. netflix, amazon, apple climbing higher for the day as they embrace risk. the fact that the possibility of interest rates may not be climbing, that played a role with the ten-year yield. you saw that fall for the day. ten-year yield is sensitive to fed policy. so you can see the last little year or so, how it's climbed. but today it closed in negative territory as investors are thinking that this could maybe be the end of the cycle when it comes to fed interest rate hikes or a slow down going into 2019. last but not least, we should look at the price of oil for the day. closing lower at $5

the president resumes his attack on fed chair jay powell.a little bit happy with current rate policy. this is "bloomberg markets: asia ." david: state of your equity markets across several related benchmarks. the regional index is up 0.3% area it is still a good day. msci china, 0.8%. southeast asia basically flat. philippines and indonesia on the back of oil down. 0.25% higher in thailand. the minutes of the bank of thailand meeting was released. growth has been horrible. they are now talking about the need to create fiscal space. there's less need for policy to be accommodative. friday, the bank of korea expected to raise. let's look at how things are doing across assets. we have not a lot of action. .341 on the chinese 10-year. we did hear from the panel of fed speakers. they continued to look to gradual rate increases next year. a few weeks five, but the overall narrative has not really moved the market. then again, the fed chair speaks tonight. we're sandwiched between those two events. commodities seeing a little more stability. stable

powell said yesterday?x: i think what i am looking at this and thinking about where equities are going, i don't think it is just trade. i think it is more about rates. trade has played its part but i think that we have been seeing is the death of the -- trade which means there is no alternative. years, thest 10 trade has been the big supporter of equity markets but now with the 10 year up above 3%, investors have a different place to go. alix: but does it stay there? the market interpretation was powell could definitely have a pause button. -- just below neutral and you can see the damage has been inflicted. alex: i think we need to be careful. we have seen such a change in town in the span of seven weeks. when i look back at the october minutes, i think you may have misspoke. alix: was it a rookie mistake? alex: i think so. if you look at the context, it was in response to a q&a. it was a fairly throwaway comment -- comment. i think it was the actions of a fed chair that had not quite realized the power of

we hear from governor jay powell later. the prime minister is said to back down from a key battle with parliament. will it increase the chances of a no deal brexit? asia rally as traders hope for a breakthrough on u.s.-china talks, but larry kudlow warns of more tariffs if no progress is made. matt: less than half an hour from the start of european trading. looks like we could see gains in stocks on the continent and in the u.k. we have futures trading higher. we also have 10 year treasuries climbing just a little bit. if you look at my three-day chart, we have come up from a dip yesterday around 8:00 p.m. european time, 2:00 p.m. u.s. 3.06%,coming back up to which means investors were willing to let go of that paper, let go of the perceived safe haven and by riskier assets. anna: we see risky assets doing well in the asia section. asian equities and the broader equities already trading. appetite for risk assets. is it the comments around g20 or hoax around she 20 -- g20 lifting things or the fed and president trump? presid

will powell punch back >>> gm stays in focus. electric car subsidies >>> shares of salesforce popping in the premarket. >>> and bitcoin is bouncing back this morning but can it last it's wednesday

jj, what do you want to hear from powell today?> we have the fed minutes coming out the fed minutes didn't take into account what's happening with crude oil, or energy i should say. where does he stand on inflat n inflation? we're not seeing any inflationary pressures whatsoever we know we saw a little bit of wage growth, we'll get a report in about a week here on employment again i think what's going on in energy has that changed his outlook at all >> i would still argue it's the conversation about normalized rates that is the issue what is normalized you don't want to see inflation if you just want to get back to a normal level >> oil could just be an indication of how strong the economy is >> it could be, but the numbers are still strong as much as everyone says he shouldn't do things, housing has weakened if you think about the mandate, it's employment and inflation, they're not supposed to care about the stock market employment is going well, inflation, not a whole lot of pressure there at the moment again, how is he sort of r

i'm jerome powell. i said four hikes. and that fellow agrees with me, on cnbc that liesman you don't know you are so busy looking at the facts you forgot the story >> i know nothing. >> you still think the market -- >> can you believe him >> holding the market hostage as long as he stays in his position >> powell and pence. they don't care about this they care about the stock? >> powell is going to care about it if it gets a lot uglier >> oh, really? really workers are making so much more money than last year 3% how did jeff immel do last year? shame on the workers they keep trying it's ridiculous. how about the people who come out of prison after paying all their dues should they work no why can't we have 3% unemployment why can't we have the worker make more money? i'm not saying the workers should own the menials of production >> there's no reason to think that powell is going to back off. >> he'd better >> you're approaching the they know nothing part two moment, if you're not already there >> the market -- >> he has

jerome powell at the economic club of new york.d i will be watching tiffany, the reports earnings after the bowl tomorrow. caroline: that is all for "what'd you miss?" romaine: "bloomberg technology" is up next in the u.s. joe: have a great evening, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am brad stone in san francisco in four emily chang. this is "bloomberg technology." in the next hour, apple shares that ofpresident trump tariffs are made good including the iphone. plus, where is mark zuckerberg? u.k. lawmakers are angry that the facebook ceo did not turn up to answer questions tweeting out a photog

if powell can echo these sentiments, what do you think could happen tomorrow?i think that would be huge. we've gone from thinking just a couple weeks ago, about five rate hikes in 2019. now people are saying, three maybe. and i think kind of december is baked in. i think we'll see that one. if we got those comments, i'm completely with you, if powell came out with that, said we're near neutral? that would be huge. that's a big day. charles: what do you make of this market of the rest of the year? >> i believe in a few things. i believe in the seasonal strength we normally get here. i believe in the presidential cycle coming on top of that and i believe the retail numbers we've seen, the consumer confidence we've seen coming through are going to continue to provide fundamental support here. i think we'll have a lift into the end of year. charles: dr, always great to see you. appreciate it a lot. old tech keeping fighting new tech. another ceo at major old tech company demanding regulation. so is the government one step closer to stepping in? that's next. ♪ neil:

president trump versus fed chairman jay powell, the president lashing out at powell again in new interview comes ahead of highly-anticipated speech today from jay powell this afternoon. 12 noon, meanwhile g20 countdown is on, the focus on president trump's working dinner with chinese president xi jinping on saturday. the question is whether they make a deal on trade is still up in the air. and then there's this, a new threat for general motors. >> there's disappointment that seems like gm would rather build electric cars in china rather than the united states, we are going to be looking at certain subsidies regarding electric cars and others whether they should apply or not. maria: president trump confirming that possibility, we are looking at the fallout of take get away those subsidies. investors showing signs of optimism this morning, take a look at futures, higher opening for broader averages, dow industrials up almost 90 points, s&p also up third percent and nasdaq up 28 points, we are getting second reading on the third quarter gdp this morning, we are expecting to show growth of 3 a