chair powell: no. sen. warren: so let's move to the volcker rule, the rule that works sort of like glass-steagall-lite, two separate commercial banking from wall street risk-taking. in 2019, you exempted more short-term trading holdings from the rules so banks could take on a little more risk. that weakens the rule. in 2020, you eased up the rules to let banks invest more of their assets in high-risk private equity and hedge funds, so the volcker rule got weaker again. so let me ask, during the past four years, has the fed done anything to make the volcker rule stronger and limit risky trading for the largest banks? chair powell: i think by clarifying it, we made it more effective at what it is supposed to do, which is just what you said. sen. warren: i have to say, it is whether or not you've made it stronger, not just whether or not you made it clearer. it is whether or not you made it stronger or harder for banks to engage in speculative trading. i am taking at that the answer here is no. i've highl

chair powell: no. that's what the congressional budget office will be able to do and make that forecast aired that's not something i can do on the spot. i had a feeling that would be the answer but the answer is obvious. i levels of inflation will only increase and stick around longer. we would not have transitory inflation report that amount of fiscal gas on the fire i also think the labor shortage is a big piece of this puzzle that several of my colleagues have already alluded to. dozens of businesses in my district cannot get people to return to work and there are critical businesses with the same problem. in south carolina, we are returning to work at a drastically higher rate than the rest of the country. unemployment claims are down from the high last year. a recent survey show that 1.8 million have turned down work because of the overly generous unemployment benefits and that is a large chunk of that labor gap. in this problem be avoided if congress simply removed disincentives to return to work

powell: yes. sen.ortez-mastos: can i ask, and considering inflation, how can we compare cost to last summer when prices were below their current levels because of the pandemic? chm. powell: it is better to compare prices to prices where they were in february. if you look at inflation since then, that captures the dig -- decrease and increase. you get lower numbers if you do that. a lot of people are doing that right now. you get the inflation in the mid-2's. the 16 month inflation on annualized basis is 2.5%. not 5%. sen. cortez-masto: for purposes of the covid relief packages, all of them including the most recent one -- is that the sole cause for what you see with respect to the increase in inflation? chm. powell: a lot of things go into it. the main thing is that we have amanda rebounding very strongly. that is partly monetary policy. it is partly fiscal policy. what we see on the supply side is a cannot keep up with this demand. it is happening everywhere in the world. it is a combination of factor

chair powell: which is what jay powell was saying. those are specific issues but it is more of a transitory thing. it is unique and it will be transitory. i want to get more reaction. vincent, anything stand out to you? vincent: you mentioned the transient. you mentioned lumber prices, they have fallen dramatically. we've also seen a drop in food prices, energy prices, gasoline prices. now we are starting to see a drop in used vehicles which is something the fed leaned heavily on as one of the reasons prices have gone up. the problem is core cpi and core pce have searched. cpi is at a third or -- is that a 30 year high and pce is searching also. i would argue the fed is saying yes they are coming off, but core prices, which they usually measure, is sticky. if that continues, their argument about transient prices falling is moot. what they need to watch for are the metrics they always watched for, and that may bring them to the table as tapering a lot faster and a lot sooner. guy: the other thing we should mention, to your point, the p

powell has his ideas here. that they're going to not have a taper transformation that's important they're going to reduce in a modest way i think personally i kind of join the larry feng camp of things i think the fed ought to have eases eased back a while ago on the asset purchases and taken account for the fiscal stimulus but if the inflation proves temporary then powell will have ended up being right and he will not have reduced stimulus than he needed to i think he has a few more months to play with and i think what stephanie has to do is -- and she has always done this, you can't buy stocks in this environment. you have to buy individual stocks because i think the story is some companies will do well in the face of higher prices and some poorlily. you can't say stocks are good and higher inflation pap stocks are bad. some stocks perform differently. >> your point is well taken. >> hey, steve. >> you know, steph forgive me, i want to go to carrie i would like to hear from you carrie before the hearing. bear

chair powell: we always have the issue. central banks generally always have the issue of looking at price increases and asking whether they are really threatening inflation. by inflation, we mean year after year after year, prices go out. something is a one-time price increase, you do not react with monetary policy. the way monetary policy works is by slowing down the recovery and reducing inflationary pressure. you would not react to something that is likely to go away. we have to look at this current situation where we have a number of categories where inflation is moving up hot -- higher than expected and a little more persistent. but we look at them and at the story. the story that you mention around used cars and new cars and railcars. it is all kind of the same story. there is a shortage of semiconductors. also high demand. people are using less public transportation. they have money because they have not been able to spend. it is the perfect storm of high demand and low supply. it should pass. unless we think there's

jay powell.now, more than likely he will probably ask for more patience. be calm, he is only buying $120 billion a month in assets. so be cool. he will probably of course talk about the rise rise of the delta variant. we talked about this already, the fed has a close relationship with this white house. they will take the cue from the cdc which did an about-face on masks. interestingly in the uk, we saw the delta variant spike before america. we're starting to see daily case county decline. the seven-day average heads down more than 32,000. on july 21st it, was 47,000. is the fed and the administration overreacting in general? i want to bring in bahnsen group managing partner david bahnsen. let's talk about this for a moment because, look we know jay powell doesn't want to make any adjustment, right? if he could have it his way leave rates accommodation forever. we have some social yo economic goals or woke goals if you want, that have nothing to do with traditional fed policy. having said that, h

chairman powell has a difficult job. he has to walk the line between retaining his credibility and helping to keep inflation expectations anchored because inflation expectations are very important here. once the toothpaste gets out of the bottle, it is difficult to put back. lisa: how do you use the bond market reaction in terms of your stock picks? can you continue with a reflation trade of the bond market is not buying it? christopher: we look at the bond market as a source of data. but we are making our own judgments. we are listening to companies, hearing what they have to say about wage costs, input costs. we heard from a consumer company yesterday that took down that forecast because they see higher input costs for longer. we are making our own judgments. we do look at the bond market when we are making judgments about the financial sector. what does the yield curve look like? will banks be able to make money if the yield curve stays aside as it does? jonathan: we just saw some of these banks deliver massive number

chair powell date two. to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issue. jay powell still shrugging off inflation concerns. >> this is a very consistent message. >> if you look at what the fed will focus on. >> inflation moving materially and persistently above the fed target. >> he does not know how inflation will go. >> this is a fed determined to be patient. >> if they make a policy mistake it is letting inflation run too hot. >> it will obviously be a combination of inflation and unemployment.

powell is saying. we have gotten a lot of this telegraphed here but basically what he is saying, yeah, i'm aware of inflation. i don't think it will be a long-term issue. don't see any need right now to taper as things stand, in other words to start unloading a lot of those securities that were bought, like, 10-year notes, treasury bonds, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, all of that. that usually would be music to wall street's ears. briefly when we got wind of it, lifted the dow over 35,000, but it is not quite that simple. we have complications on a big, big spending package the democrats are cooking up north of 3 1/2 trillion dollars here that will maybe push this inflationary argument all the more but if it's a worry for the bond market as i say you don't see it in bond yields right now. a 10-year is fetching a little more than 1.35%. remember a couple months ago this thing was in and out of 1.7 plus percent. stock market not worried. should you be worried? let's go to shana sissell, spotlight chi

over to my colleague liz claman, give them a little traction so far what were hearing from jerome powell. liz: indeed, the s&p charging higher, breaking news the dow has talked no fewer than 170 points off the lows of the session as jerome powell just said rate hikes are nowhere on his radar and inflation will go right back to the news conference live in washington, d.c. listen. >> again with a reasonably high percentage of the country vaccinated and the vaccine apparently be an effective, we are not experts on this but it seems like a good going in estimate would be that the effects will probably be less, there probably won't be significant lockdowns and things like that, those are not decisions for us or numbers that we would be an expert in. in terms of the channels, for this is kind of speculation. it is just that people, you can imagine school districts deciding to wait a month or two for the delta wave, i'm not saying this is going to happen but it's easy to imagine that, it's also easy to imagine that some people might say i'm just going to wait a couple of months before going bac

powell for his testimony today. without objection, all members will have five legislative days to submit additional written questions for the witnesses to the chair which will be for the witnesses were theft response. i asked mr. powell to please respond as promptly as you are able. without objection, all members will have five legislature days with which to submit extraneous materials to the chair in the record. with that, this hearing is adjourned. ♪♪ >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government funded by these television companies and more including comcast. >> you think it's just a community center? no, it is way more than that. >> comcast partnering with 1000 community centers to create wi-fi enabled. so students can get the tools they need to be ready for everything. comcast supports c-span as a public service along with these other television providers giving a front row seat to democracy. >> next on c-span2, veterans affairs secretary guinness on va modernization efforts followed by an update on the pande

what does jay powell have to say?his eye on are long-term short-term has come up it would be absurd if they haven't given the inflation pressures. the key is if that translates into longer term expectations and we have seen that market participants are seeing through the temporary surges and prices. inflation expectations, five years from now, look to be just about where they were over the past decade before the pandemic. in fact, they have come down since may ou i think that gives powell a lot of room to move. >> joe, transitory or not? almost like a cliche to ask the question at this point >> it's transitory this is a post-pandemic level adjustment reflects the fact i was at the white house you talked about a "v" shaped recovery. that will continue into 2021 a lot of momentum the economy has. demand has moved faster than supply more production will come online the bottlenecks will dissipate we are seeing asset markets. if you look at what equities and really estate are likely to do, you see a lot of inflation my sen

turning to chair powell for answers. >> chairman powell. >> chairman powell has a very difficult job.a mistake is elevated right now. >> inflation is front and center. >> we hear from chair powell. >> he has to walk the fine line between retaining his credibility and helping to keep inflation expectations anchored. >> he will sound sanguine on the inflationary pressure. >> the important thing is how he navigates on tapering. >> four members have been more

chair powell, i want to thank you for being with us again.oday i'd like to talk about inflation, the insidious tax that the pooid is imposing on every day working people here in america and it's of great concern. back in february i discussed with you about how the u.s. economy at that point was forecast to see 6% growth this year and at that point i expressed serious concerns about the democrats' nearly $2 trillion of additional partisan spending on an economy that was already recovering rapidly thanks to the effects of operation warped speed and also thanks to the policies that have been in place during the previous four years that have put our nation on a solid footing in terms of tax cuts, fair and reciprocal trade and deregulation. the federal reserve's challenging and dual mandate is to realize price stability and maximum employment but run away democrat spending and policies that they are imposing are making your job harder than it already is. the bill that democrats ran through in march spent roughly 10% of our gdp and now they're look

jonathan: chairman powell just hours away.rom york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures, 4364 on the s&p, just off all-time highs. tom: the news is different than it was at 9:00 p.m. last night. this is a radically different wednesday than i expected even 12 or 18 hours ago. there's a nasdaq lift off apple news. but the focus has to be in this changed wednesday on chairman powell in washington. jonathan: i'm with you. just how compromised is the federal reserve chairman, who's clearly looking for a second term at the cap of the central bank in america? tom: steve stanley absolutely nailed it, that what he cannot do today is go down there and say remain calm. that is not going to happen. jonathan: that is the monetary policy side of things. we got to talk about the physical side as well. lisa: a 3.5 trillion dollar proposal from to kratz they have agreed upon. will it matter enough to -- from democrats they

the battle powell has been fighting is over the taper tantrum. the fed makes an incremental step to the taper and bond markets slip, powell is winning that battle. i wonder if he's losing a broader war and we'll see, it's thought to be transitory, but that's his gamble. he's had to make a play here, winning against the taper tantrum. he's announced he's going to talk about it and do it. the market seems comfortable with that. the risk on the other side is we end up like alicia and rick are concerned about with higher inflation on the back end. that's the new battle to watch >> i love the language of fed discussions, they'll talk about talk about earlier, steve, you said the fed says it's made progress towards making progress. i love the way we speak circularly about the fed ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for jim, david, we appreciate your time the countdown is on to fed chair powell's news conference the former fed governor will tell us what to expect and whether he thinks the fed is at the risk of falling behind the curve. more analys

chair powell, will you unmute?sorry, housing prices are moving up the a high rate and is by banning housing leading to the last prices they are not nonetheless, housing prices are moving up and that makes it more difficult for entry level buyers to get into the housing market that is a concern. i will also take a number of things regarding housing prices from a certain flow rates are a artifact changes imperfect people have moved out of cities because of public into surrounding areas so single family housing has been high and prices have been driven up by material shortages. >> chairman, lack of supply around housing housing area, ifo it raises interest rates would be the impact have any effect on the supply side as you are. there are limitations around availability of materials and labor and things like that nothing we can do to affect his interest rates are one factor is much about supply side you expect increasing housing supply would help the inflation? >> i think housing are much more, i do think more housing

powell has pushed the fed in the dovish direction powell and his vice chair. the framework review has been one that has tolerated higher inflation. as you mentioned sought a more inclusive definition of full employment so, it's a dovish thing. some of the contenders that are being thought about or named for potential replacements for powell would also be dovish. either way i think policy is going to remain accommodated and growth friendly and i believe the market will like who's in there and would like powell to have another term. but i think any replacement would probably lean toward really fostering growth and full employment >> is there a legitimacy or independence issue if it's somebody who is seen as tighter with the administration? ironically if we go back for years now, the fed's goal has been to raise inflation expectations something like this could certainly do it. you could argue it's pursuing institutional goal or you could argue it might risk furthering the concerns a lot of people have about the fed >> i wouldn't worry about the fed's independence

and thank you, chairman powell, for being with us today. as has been alluded to throughout this hearing, we have seen that supply bottlenecks and pandemic related factors have been one of the primary reasons that have led to price increases, whether it's computer chip complications with delaying the production of new vehicles, prompting a rush on used vehicles, the price of lumber, shipping container logistics, et cetera, we know that these price increases were not caused by changes in interest rates. they were caused by supply chain complications. now, just to reiterate, you have said that these price increases are transition -- transitory, correct? >> yes we said we think they will be. of course we lack certainty on that, but we do believe that's the case >> thank you and if drivers of inflation are supply chain issues and potential areas of underinvestment, do you think that these issues are best resolved through investments making that supply chain more resilient? or higher interest rates >> you know, if we see things that are temporary

we know fed chair powell is maintaining that dovish tone.mpact of markets if we get this diverging of markets? laura: certainly we're already seeing that play out in terms of money market. if we look at what's happening in the u.k., markets are priced in for 15 basis points of hikes by next may. that's quite a material move from what we saw a week ago, about a year ahead of the u.s. we are beginning to see that divergence, and that is playing out in terms of the tenure spreads. dani: laura, thank you so much for joining us. that's it for bloomberg daybreak: europe. we have the european open up next. mark and and i will walk you through that. enjoy your weekend from there on out. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, help

dovishness coming out of jerome powell may be to do with that.e of the world's largest alternative management firms. they have seen their profits searching new highs in the pandemic. apollo global management says it has managed to achieve those gains despite a noisy year. ceo marc rowan spoke to jason kelly about the nature of the private equity business. >> it will continue to be a hugely important business, a massive source of profits for ourselves and clients. as important, a massive source of intellectual capital. it is not the same growth trajectory as some of the other businesses, nor should it be. at the end of the day, we serve clients. our job is to provide them excess return. excepting more capital in excess of the opportunities available just makes returns go down. private equity is like a farming business. you plant and you harvest. the business goes up, you sell things. for as much as people have said, and i have seen the press saying too much money chasing too few deals, i was joking, i've been hearing this for 36 years. when i arri

jay powell to head to the hill to testify before the senate today. telling house members yesterday inflation is elevated in the coming months, but due to rising used car prices. although, probably not the bolt. cathie wood sharing that sentiment while speaking to cnbc yesterday. >> we believe used car prices are going to fall. they've gone way too far too fast we talk all the time about the defl deflationary forces. leah mentioned it earlier. it is not just on the disruptive innovation side. the company causing the falling prices that explode demand that's good deflation. >> joining us to talk about that and the macro markets is howard capital management ceo vance howard vance, good to have you on if you look at the market, it was all used car prices. skewing the data where do you fall in the inflation camp >> you know, i'm not worried about inflation. you and i, brian, talked about it a number of times it is temporary. it will work its way through i actually went. we took a big position in sosx, the semiconductor index. i actually went to 12 to 14 d

powell for his testimony today. without objection, all members will have five legislative days within which to submit additional written questions or the witnesses to the chair which will be forwarded to the witness for their response sky mr. powell to please respond as properly as you are able. without objection, all members will have five legislative days within which to submit extraneous materials to the chair for inclusion in the record with that, this hearing is adjourned. [ gapounds gavel ] >> chairwoman maxine waters chairing the meeting part of the central policy, day two in the senate tomorrow, of course welcome back to "power lunch." not much time left in the program, me and eamon javers listening. >> this is the shortest edition of "power lunch" ever. fascinating to hear the questions about inflation and that's what people want to know and the cost of cars seems to be the big proxy members of congress asking what things cost in their district, cars are the things they turn to. >> used car up 45% was the e

joe: exactly right, chairman jerome powell.he message he tried to express was we have a long way to go until we are back to full employment. while inflation numbers may raise anxiety for a taper and early hikes, his messages there is still a lot of work to do. caroline: we have had this message again and again and i don't know why the market is surprised. joe: for more reaction to powell's appearance, we want to welcome congressman patrick mchenry, republican from north carolina and the ranking member of house financial services. he led republican questioning of the chairman. thank you for joining us. do you feel the fed is correctly assessing the balance of risks? that there is inflationary pressure but there is work to do to get back to full employment? and at this point the fed is properly weighing those two different conditions? >> i think chairman powell has acquitted himself well over the last 15, 16 months when there was trepidation globally with the pandemic. that's why i called for his reappointment for another term. a

romaine: powell was in person for this at hearing today. yesterday, they did over zoom. -- they did over zoom. kriti: i don't know about that. i can't get into politics. romaine: you have a question? caroline: i do have a question. your theory was that commodities are leading everything. that that is where the worry is. is it still where the worry as? kriti: that is where it started last week. what is interesting is it is the margin of the move regardless of what asset class because they are all connected. i don't need to repeat this but the move in the oil market was really strong and that is what the rep. rose:. move for dismissal the bond market it is the acceleration in the treasury yield or the exhilaration or treasuries downward in the yield starting to ripple across the stock market. i'm going to quote andy of stocked and because he did point out if you look at what the stock market is favoring, they are favoring the stocks that outperform to in a little bond yield environment. you are seeing this follow tech outperformance. that is

but jay powell, again, jay powell deciding, hey, you know what maybe it's better they don't go under. put a floor underneath them, the day that carnival cruise got the $8, went to $8 and people said, well, that's the end. no, we saved so much money as a country bailing out these companies. frank del rio, i don't talk that much about this lawsuit where he wants to make the boats safer and that's not other -- you know, that's contra. >> right, understood. >> wait new mexico lambda hits us it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks. lambda is the next one everyone's talking about. >> is it omega >> alpha, delta, on to lambda. >> delta plus, all the jargon related to the various people say i don't worry about long covid. >> that was goldman's point yesterday. goldman did a piece in the afternoon saying any resurgence in this is not likely to shift consumer behavior. it hasn't so far. >> i think it's incredible >> do you have costen on at 10:00? >> i don't think so. >> he's on tech today. >> he did a piece on antitrust last night he sent it to me at 1:30 a.m i think that's when he finished

and jay powell will make an appearance this week.er today opec releases its monthly oil market report. and angela merkel visits the white house to meet with president joe biden. the key message she is taking if europe wants to keep its seat at the table. let's get our bloomberg news update. >> the states below the goal of vacs makes the rates. the two states with the lowest amount of vaccination rates accounted for the most infections. 21,000 new cases compared with more than 200,000 in january. still they are inching up as vaccines slow. in china economic growth slowed down largely in line with forecast in the second quarter. 7.9% from a year earlier. down from 18% in the first quarter. retail spending and industrial output both beat stims last month. brazilian president will remain hospitalized after being diagnosed with a partial intestinal disruption. doctors ruled out an emergency surgery for now. he has been moved to the hospital after suffering abdominal pain after 10 days of hiccups. european governments are growing increasin

compound that, we do think chairman powell is a favorite to keep the job.itics and if you think about the candidates that have been floated, they seem a lot more appealing in some respects and jay powell having been appointed by donald trump. but still when you look at the record, he's been all right and he's been very dovish. what president doesn't want a dove probably joe biden does. >> it was kind of going to be politics, not so much policy, like michael schumacher was saying there are the issues here >> i agree that on the regulatory issues, you know, progressives don't love powell i think they can address those concerns with the departure and replacing him with a much more progressive figure i think it's very dangerous at this juncture of the structure to replace powell who on the economy has a very good record obviously it is very divided they need strong leadership. and whoever that new person might be, it's going to take them a while to sort of build that respect and leadership and the ability to build a consensus and to steer the committee in the r

we are looking had to chairman powell pilled we will do that -- with chairman powell. we will do that at 6:30. alongside tom keene and esa brahma was, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> federal reserve chair jerome powell and his colleagues are likely to emphasize patience. policymakers -- interest rates near zero at the end of a two day meeting. the delta variant is giving powell another reason to be cautious. deutsche bank -- it has led the german bank to raise revenue guidance. fixed income trading fell 11% in the quarter. deutsche bank's scrapped a cost target after a series of unexpected expenses. visitors from the u.s. and the european union -- instead of isolating, those travelers would have to take covid tests before leaving for the u.k. and after. in australia, sydney's month-long lockdown will be extended by at least another four weeks. coronavirus cases surged to another record. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am laura wright, this is bloom

jay powell, he pointed to lumber.r commodities will see similar retracement. near term, what are the recent meandering, some pullbacks in commodities saying not just about commodities but what are they telling you about interest rates? >> well i mean obviously, i mean right now, you know, interest rates generally have an inverse relationship with commodities. but we have seen a pullback in these commodities, you know, if you think about it. the market, they're still very elevated. so the market, the commodities markets basically telling you that they see lower rates for very long time, persistently low. which is kind of a good read if you listen to powell this weekend at his testimony. and with lumber you know i think that was kind of a parabolic craze, move due to a very you know, we had the pandemic, we had supply problems and tariffs on canadian lumber to the u.s. and also that market is very thin market. bid ask on that contract is insane. charles: right. i think that is -- [inaudible] charles: i got a minute to g

which camp will jay powell be in? the five-year breakeven we still off, but the trajectory of the five-year breakeven is to the upside. will jay powell join the transitorians? dani: we got a preview yesterday , mary daly continued to be in the transitory camp. the issue of whether it is transitory or not is put well at rbc capital markets. they say there are problems with inflation being transitory -- we do not know how long the reopening will last, and how do we define transitory? to his first point, the deposit growth at banks, jp morgan, 23% outstanding -- that is a lot of cash people are sitting on that they can spend for a while. manus: how toxic was yesterday? jp morgan lending to the rich, not part of that club. lending to the rich was phenomenal. lending to mainstream was stagnant. on top of that, a rabid inflation number, the highest since 1991 on the core. i started trading commodities badly in 1991. with the lack of lending keeping money in the bank, inflation, it is not helping feed -- i think the bank of

it is already pushed back on a seemingly patient jay powell. but they are still playing the tape or at some point. how much does that factor into prices? aftermarket, amazon is set to report earnings. we have not talked about facebook, down sharply last night in premarket open. the question for amazon will be somewhat similar, what regulatory pressure are they facing. people will be looking at also labor force issues, the idea they are getting pressured by unions to rage -- raise their wages. jon: thank you. after the market, amazon and then onto that it looks like we are done. feels like we're are done, doesn't it, tom? tom: i get the whole tech thing with the juggernaut and it will sum up, but i'm jaded. how do you juckes defy 8.5% surveyed gdp with what powell said about jobs? jon: we have much more work to do apparently. let's bring in days -- in david rosenberg. you have done a great job through the years so far, really pointing out the issues in this argument for people who think it is not transitory, for people who think it is. frame it

jay powell leans into the slack narrative. there is slack in the system and there is a ways to go before we are ready to do anything with policy. dani: good morning. that was a green light. for the first time this year, the nasdaq 100 is outperforming the small-cap index. small-cap index falls for a second consecutive day. it's worse -- its worst two-day performance since may. manus: there is one ceo who is all about wages. for 10 years, hoping that wages would rise. larry fink says that we will see an epic shift in inflation and he is giving pay rises. this is the wages number from the last. it is turning a little bit higher. our guest suggests that we could be at the start of a new regime in the wage dynamic. that could shift the fed more aggressively. that is a risk. dani: not only transitory inflation. the recipe is there. you have the nfid survey also showing that small businesses were the most considered about filling roles then they had been on record. at what point do they start raising wages to fill in that gap? manus

jonathan: chairman powell just a few hours away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.05 dissent -- 0.05%. tom: it is going to be interesting, what he's going to do. i would say it is medical first, do no harm, and that is the thrust of the press conference. what is interesting is the pandemic worry is there versus a corporate america that is adapting and adjusting. mcdonald's out moments ago. the comp sales numbers are really not legitimate, but they are showing the same thing we are seeing company after company. we are seeing margin resilience that is just unreal. jonathan: sales up 40.5%, slight upside surprise. the estimate, 38.7%. put together with the numbers we saw yesterday after the close from big tech, big money in big white. -- in a big way. tom: what is some important here is how do you extrapolate out this corporate excellence within a boom economy,

chair powell testimony later in the week, and jay powell kicking off earnings season states what -- earningsn stateside. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ berg. ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just five to ten minutes a day. the aero trainer supports over 500 pounds, and inflates and deflates in seconds

jay powell sticking to the transitory story and is focused on jobs, the jobs market. the dilemma for investors, to follow or fight the fed. i have a brilliant line up all strong opinions to help grow your portfolio. plus, how does buy now, pay later sound? it is not a trick question. this is one way fintech companies are revolutionizing finance. i have a special guest where your portfolio could benefit as well. and the new freedom riders, they have a new tool kit. case of miller lite, check. private jet, check. flee the state, check. cue up we will overcome. this as texas democrats redefine bravery. americans are growing wary of big government. i will getted read from larry kudlow. that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you know, another one of those days in the market where the interpretation of news matters more than the news itself consider that inflation continues to sizzle, so does the stock market, right? the market is sizzling as well. it is not up a lot but every time it goes up it hits a new high. june consumers prices from a year ago well above

up a little bit it's a new record it was a story of continued momentum and maybe a little mini jay powell pop, if you will, because the fed chair testifying on capitol hill mostly of course got questions that lined up by political party, but on the side that you care about powell trying to keep everybody calm on inflation, but in reality is everything as under the surface smooth as it may seem tonight, guy adami? what do you think? >> hello, brian. and i don't think things are nearly as smooth as -- it's like what is that thing when a duck swims it looks so casual but below the surface the wheels -- the legs are going a mile a minute that's what's happening here dan will correctly say and cathie wood was just on talking about the fact that she's worried about deflation. steve grasso brings it up. maybe that is -- you can make a case for it, what i will tell you is and i will say it for the hundred dred time technology is the biggest deflationary force in history and we are at a point that we have never seen in our history in terms of technology, but you have inflation in all the wrong pla

what are you expecting will come from powell?ichael: he might get a little bit more specific, but for jay powell, given the data, it is a bit like standing outside, listening to the weatherman tell you the sun is coming out while you are standing in a dilute of rain -- in a deluge of rain. you get these ppi numbers today on a year-over-year basis, up at 7.3%. that is the strongest ever in this data series. the numbers of congress who are going to be questioning jay powell are going to be saying, really? there is no inflation to worry about? powell's argument is that it is the reopening of the economy, the shortages of things held up in the supply chains, and these are things that are going to slowly dissipate as the bank of canada sees happening as well. so powell tells the members of congress that yes, inflation is going to hit. he says inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating, but goes on to say that the most important thing is inflation expectations. that is what the fe

i do want to get your general opinion here on jay powell.his term is up for a lot of debate now and whether the biden administration and the folks in congress will back him for a second term. would you like to see him stick around? cluadia: i would like to see that but what i would most like to see is the fed committed to a dual mandate. he's not the only one that can lead us to the finish line, but that is where we have to go. caroline: we want to thank you so much, claudia sahm, on all things fed, fed coins, fed account. jay powell talked about the risks that still lie in the delta variant and we just got breaking news that the texas cases has -- have hit $10,000 a day since february and we will keep a close eye on how the use effect the rest of the united states. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine: all right, pretty uneventful day for markets. we saw most of the indexes close higher on the day because of the earnings that we got yesterday and this morning, including google. there were earnings after the bell tonight, including qu

joe: jay powell set to testify before congress next week. let's get a preview of that.loomberg opinion colonist connor. it feels like a long time ago from a market perspective, from the last time we heard from chairman powell even though it was only a few weeks ago. compared to the middle of june 2 now, we have a huge move in rates. do you expect a pivot in the language from the fed or the chair and how they talk about things versus how they might have a month ago? connor: i don't because they are talking about a congressional audience that is focused on things like the housing market and inflation and things like that. there is a big disconnect between what mainstream people are looking out and people in the trenches looking at the data are scrutinizing and seeing. that disconnect is something we will have to wrestle with. caroline: who wins out in the disconnect? connor: it's interesting because we expect powell to talk about --hawkish is strong but they are likely to taper their security purchases earlier this year than people thought and particular meet mortgage bac

powell said, we will stick to the plan. i thought the congresswoman from missouri, the former ambassador whose name escapes me right now, i am sorry. she was brilliant about painting out inflation that people are feeling but we have guests saying do not worry about the inflation. tell that to the constituents. jonathan: the fed has an extrapolation reaction function and they could be overwhelmed and that is the position that some people are taking. tom: and thank you, they can be overwhelmed by fax and when do they come? maybe not before the next meeting but they do not come conveniently, they might come in the autumn. jonathan: we could be here all day talking about this. equity futures coming in at .1%. elsewhere, advancing about one third of 1%. it is all over the apple move of the last week. over the last several weeks in the last couple of months have rallied off of the lows on the nasdaq 100 and the big tech names as well. outside of that, it gets your attention in the bond market. we had a billet -- a bid yield to lo

chair powell, i just want to go back to inflation a little bit.t kind of surprised by your tone. it seems like you're just sort of warning that if inflation gets too high, the fed will act. isn't it true that, i mean, a little inflation is good for the economy, and that somehow, maybe we can get the economy out of this sort of place where we're always going to be close to the zero lower bound? isn't there a good story to tell, and you're sort of panicking people? >> i certainly don't have that in mind, no. look, as you know, we were targeting a moderate overshoot of 2% inflation for some time. we want inflation expectations to be centered on 2%. we feel like they may be a little bit below that. so the bigger picture is that that would be a healthy thing. this is a different thing. this is not that. that was the kind of inflation we were thinking about that comes from a very, very strong labor market and a booming economy, maybe. that was the kind of inflation. this is something different. this is really driven by the supply side, which is not able

annmarie hordern in jerome powell's washington.o the pal testimony in roughly 15 minutes, 12 minutes. annmarie: some opening remarks and then we will hear from the chairman himself. tom: comments making headlines and moving markets this morning. red and green on the screen after a nice lift through the morning. oil news out which moved oil to a 76 handle, now down to a dollar 39 on brent crude. yield comes down. dollar was stronger, it is weaker. you have 30 seconds. why is oil

looking ahead to chairman powell. >> jay powell. >> how does chair powell talk about the discussion aroundeverything points to the fed tapering in 2022. >> i do not think we will get the same amount of fireworks. >> the fed is dealing with fundamental uncertainty. >> i think there is a fine balance. >> very cautious, very centrist. >> low expectations. >> we need the fed

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