(melisia powell) muchos. - muchos y muchos. (melisia powell) yeah.i make them every day, maybe 100 or 150. - every day? (melisia powell) yes. we sell them at isla colon. the tourists, they come and buy buns, and these buns go to canada, to the united states, all over the place. - the buns from bastimentos. (melisia powell) yes! (sophie fouron) oh, it's heavy. (dayra powell) that's why we say "journey." you have a journey. - o.k. it's for my journey back home. it's delicious, sisters. (melisia powell) o.k. - do they have it with jam? (dayra powell) yes, we use it with jam, with cheese. - of course. (dayra powell) we put a little butter. - how do you call it in guari-guari? - journey cake. - journey cake. - don't laugh at me now! do you speak guari-guari together? - yes. - yes. - [speaking guari-guari] - wapin? [phonetic] what does that mean? - what's happening! - what's happening? wapin! is it taught in the school? - yes. - once your generation is gone in many, many, many years, do you think the young people will continue doing it? - no! - it's very h

chair powell: good afternoon.t's nice to see everyone in person for the first time in a couple of years. before i go into the details of today's meeting, i'd like to take this opportunity to speak directly to the american people. inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down. we have both the tools we need and resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of american families and businesses. the economy in the country have been through a lot over the past two years and have proved resilient. it is essential that would bring -- that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all. from the standpoint of our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability, the current picture is plain to see. the labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high. against this backdrop, today the fomc raised its policy interest rate by half percent

than they know who jay powell is. guy: if you want to write a photo piece, you meet with jay powell who i suspect not many people know. i just wonder whether or not he will be better off meeting with oil executives or grocery c.e.o.'s, the c.e.o. of walmart. i appreciate the fed's responsibility is inflation and the photo op is designed to president the president on -- put the president on it. i wonder if the average man or woman on the street is the way of delivering that message. annmarie: this is a pivot to the administration in june for the economy. alix: and it's may 31, right? this is potentially at start of maybe we will see in terms of the photo op of this white house engaging a little bit more. with these issues. annmarie: and the executives that deal with them. alix: there is a scapegoat situation that will also be unfolding over the next few months. guys, leave it there. much more coming up in the next two hours. mike, annmarie, thanks for joining us. coming up, we'll continue this conversation and how the

fed chair powell: thank you. you're right, 3.6 percent unemployment is just about as low as it has been in 50 years. i would say that i expect and committee embers generally expect it will get some additional participation. people will be coming back into the labor force. that will tend to hold the unemployment rate up a little. i would also expect that job creation will slow. job creation has been at more than a half million per month in recent months, very strong, particularly for this stage of the economy. so we think with fiscal policy less supportive, monetary policy less supportive, we think that job creation will slow as well. it is certainly possible that employment would go down further, but i would expect those to be relatively limited because of the additional supply. implications for inflation, really wages matter of fair amount for companies particularly in the service sector. wages are running the highest they have run in quite some time. they are one good example or good illustration of how tight t

powell. just interest rates. if interest rates on the long end keep going higher, bad news. if they start to come down, better news and better news for the market. that is very oversold with a big dose of bearishness right now. charles: you know, phil, a lot of wall street, let's call it purists for lack of a better term right now wanted the fed to go even harder than this, 75, maybe 100. you build up the anxiety when everyone knows the inflation crisis, ohioest inflation in 40 years. is this enough to gary's point did they come out of the gates strong enough to make a statement? >> yeah, absolutely. we forget the fed is not hiking into strength. the fed is hiking into weakness. for that reason i think 50 is enough. i'm in the camp the fed will not go as nearly far as everyone expects. this statement is more than enough to get the job done. wages are tilted a little bit. houses coming off the bloom a little bit. already have an effect. there is tightening throughout the economy already. this

that powell would come out and be aggressive.hat he wouldn't going to take 75 basis points off the table and to be honest powell i don't think he took it completely off the table. he said they're not actively contemplating 75 basis points. that doesn't mean it can't come back in a couple meetings from now and he did lay out he expected 50 basis points for the next couple meetings. i think the question we're looking at right now, was he as hawkish what the market already priced? they priced in like 200, 250 basis points already of rate hikes. the fact he pulled back on that5 basis points, i think that is why you see the markets today, along with the productivity numbers, why you see people pull back, maybe the fed isn't going to have quite a big of a handle on inflation as they're laying out in their story. charles: i think powell is a wordsmith. i think he used words deliberately. if he thought maybe they would have to go back to 75 basis points he would have articulated that specifically. to me this is what it seems like, jim. p

we have to take in the fed chair jay powell.terms of dachshund terms of major short-term demand, there's going to be an impact. manus: one of our last guest talked about a soft recession in the u.s. will certainly play into the complex as well. thanks for being with us. let's get up to speed, juliette has the first furred headlines from singapore. juliette: the u.s. is preparing a military aid package for india that is looking to reduce delhi's dependence on russian arms. it would making the one of the largest recipients of u.s. military aid, behind israel and egypt. you can government plans to introduce legislation within weeks to override parts of the brexit deal it negotiated with the e.u.. the situation in northern ireland risks escalating tensions with the block. a unit -- after misrepresenting the risk posed by a group of hedge that collapsed during the pandemic. the deal closed and embarrassing episode for the german giant. the wall street journal is reporting that data for a china eastern and lines jet that crashed earli

so i don't think powell's going to have to raise -- i think powell's going to raise what he said he'sand i don't see 75 in the cards. liz: gotcha. interesting. stubborn, i don't know, maybe browbeat? i don't know, i think jay powell has been dealt some really tough cards to deal with. thank you, andy brenner. closing bell, we have 5 minutes left. a lot of things are cheaper at the minute. as we round out to the last few minutes of trade, the dow has not finished down more than a thousand points since june of 2020. right now we're down 1126, all right? and the nasdaq is on pace for its worst day since march of 2020, and the nasdaq, obviously, in bear territory, down more than to -- 20% this year with. remember, the start of the pandemic was a really tough time, and we're pretty much testing those numbers. joining us now, circle squared alternative investments ceo jeff sica. and, jeff, what are you buying, if anything, in these last couple of minutes of trading? can i i just say, can we put up amazon? earlier the low of the session for amazon was something like 2317, it's just hit a new

>> hi, chair powell. rachel siegel from "the washington post. to follow up from your message from the very beginning, what is your message to the american people about when they will start to feel the effects of, say, a 50-point basis hike or multiple hikes how do you explain what that does to their grocery bill or their rent or their gas bill thank you. >> so the first thing to say is that we understand, and some of us are old enough to have lived through high inflation, and many aren't, but it's very unpleasant it's just something people don't -- when they experience it for the first time, you're paying more for the same thing if you're a normal economic person, then you probably don't have that much extra to spend, and it's immediately hitting your spending on groceries, on gasoline, on energy and things like that. so we understand the pain involved so how do you get out of that? and it's our job to make sure that inflation of that unpleasant high nature doesn't get entrenched in the economy. that's what we're here for, one of the main things

lake powell along the utah/arizona border.ater to millions and is also an important source of hydro power. and all of that is now in danger. ben tracy reports. >> we're going to buoy number 3, they call it. >> reporter: paul mcnabb and his dad mike are fishing guides on utah's lake powell. they've been casting along these canyons for decades. >> hey, caught one. >> reporter: they're worried that the wall in front of their favorite fishing hole will just keep getting taller. >> i'm looking at spots that 30, 40 feet up the wall where my bait was hitting where i was fishing just a year ago. >> reporter: so you're saying literally a year ago, this boat we're on right now would have been 30, 40 feet up there? >> yep, yep. absolutely crazy how much it's come down. >> reporter: lake powell has dropped nearly 40 feet in just one year. these satellite images show how quickly it has shrivelled up during a 22-yearlong mega drought as climate change makes the west hotter and dryer, this massive reservoir is now less than 24% full that whi

meeting that jay powell has with president biden. is this him being given marching orders to tackle inflation more aggressively, and how much does that compromise the fed who has not been seen as political? that is the tone after a memorial day weekend where people were shocked about the prices they were paying. >> almost five dollars a gallon on average. tom: john, this language, i want to know if you have ever seen this language in the united kingdom coming off the prime minister's desk. this is off of the treasury secretary's desk about the meeting there talking about and the language of this is really basic. this is american politics as it goes. as we transition from a historic economic recovery to stable and steady growth that works for working families, how's that working? jonathan: that is the problem for the white house. there owning cpi print. there is a fear in that white house that we have not seen the worst of it yet when it comes to confidence and consumers see the downtrend in growth. >> and seeing how quickly it is rol

chairman powell wound that back and said, we are not panicking. we are going to make rate increases fast, but 75 basis points weeks of panic. he wound back from there. that was big, but we sit around the framework of elite tightening. there was roebuck of -- rollback of front-end rate increases. we are not panicking, but we are still tightening. tom: if we get a new rate regime, do you have confidence across corporations, particularly american corporations, that they can adapt to a new rate level, even a positive real yield? hugo: no. it is not just the architecture of rates. it is the secondary effects. the fed when it was in a zero balance was manipulating too strong and controlling large parts of the market through things like volatility. volatility is analogous to rates. there is volatility flying through the curve. the volatility of rates moves up and has permanently elevated. the vix is elevated. it does not go back feel of 20. the spreads, there is a whole roster of effects. currency volatility weakness in currency, it is against the dollar

kathleen: i think jay powell is being so clear. this is the third time in a row he has pretty much said the same thing. they know they need to fight inflation and they know they should have started sooner hiking rates last year. now they are ready to go full speed ahead. he said they are going to keep pushing on rates until it is clear that inflation is coming down. here is what he said at a wall street journal event earlier today. chair powell: inflation is coming down and that's what we need to see. if that involves moving past broadly understood levels of neutral, we won't hesitate at all to do that. we won't. and honestly, we will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say yes, financial conditions are in an appropriate place and we see inflation coming down. kathleen: he was asked about the neutral rate. some people saying it might be 3.5%, 4%, or higher. he agreed we will push as high as we have to. he said the economy is strong and can withstand tighter policy. if the basis point rate hikes are fine for now --

but of course -- >> i don't think so. >> of course powell cannot, just to be fair to powell, he cannotttee's decision ahead of the committee sitting and deciding and talking, right? >> i just think he's talking to all of us who have a.d.d. when it comes down to this. the entire market wants to hear one thing, we want to know the answer, and we want to know it now, and we run that direction as soon as we think we know what he's saying. this is a much more nuance game there are a lot of moving piece the there are a lot of things he has to consider, he and the committee. it's a lot more nuanced, and he's willing to admit he doesn't know the answer. thanks, teach, we'll he sao you later. >>> when we come back. pent up demand for leisure travel you bet, people want to get out there. we will speak to the ceo of the largest holding company, and what they're hearing as people finally get out of the house and travel more. "squawk box" will be right back. meet jessica moore. jessica was born to care. she always had your back... like the time she spotted the neighbor kid, an approaching car, a pu

chair powell and other leaders of the fed have a laser focus.as a larger complement among board members. i look forward to chairman powell's continued leadership with the fed. thank you for coming in. [indiscernible] romaine: the president of the u.s. preparing to meet with the fed chair, jerome powell and joe biden's secretary. there are some other economic measures. we will bring that to you, but we want to move from that to a milestone here at the end of may. a lot of focus on equality and how we can strive for a more equal society. a professor of economics over at the university. it benefits us all. thank you for being here. to some of the best research i have seen is amongst various professors, striving to make the case for equality. one makes the case for the economic opportunities lost from exclusion. >> if we are talking about lgbtq people, we are talking about a loss of income, higher poverty rates and the effects that people have, not coming out of the education. my argument is that the economy itself has held back when they do not hav

the administration put powell in a box. we have excessive spending and policies that pay people not to work. we had a war on american energy. they have to raise interest rates. that makes it harder to buy a home. that's going to make the stock market go down. reporter: raising interest rates is not the cure-all for inflation with no side effects. if interest rates go up it will make it more expensive for people to retire and the value of 401ks will go down. cheryl: people are going to start to pull back their spending and i think we are seeing that already. we'll be monitoring developments between president biden and jerome powell. we'll bring any comments to you from the white house to you live. there is oil going even higher. we are jumping today with these prices as the european leadership agrees to a partial ban on russian oil imports. bill flynn joins me now. it's been a long time coming, this decision. but at the same time, that price pressure goes up and up and continues to hit the gas pump across the country. >> i t

that is what powell spoke about today.e have 11.5 million job openings and only 6 million people looking for jobs. that will keep pressure on wages. it puts consumer in a good spot. consumer is the bright spot in the economy. elevated savings rate. even in negative gdp print first quarter, consumer can seemed -- consumers seem to be a bright spot. the continuation is can consumer spend on discretionary basis in the face of higher costs? that is key. that will be the driver of whether we enter a recession or not. if inflation stays elevated, recessionary risks are higher. if inflation comes down, those risks are lower. that backs the fed off financial tightening mode. taylor: did you hear anything new on the balance sheet reduction? does that change what you're thinking about treasuries and mbs? ken: the treasury part was down the middle. they have more than enough bills to cover any shortfall relative to cap targets. mbs, once they get to that billion dollar cap, that implies 35 billion of mbs per month. current turnover r

he is in the same campus jerome powell.e got an interesting nuance from him because he thinks the fed should frontload the heights , 50 basis points at first, but before december, he thinks they will have started to do may be beast a few 25 basis point hikes to get to the neutral rate, 2.2 product percent to two point have percent -- 2.25% to 2.50%. this, after some dinner remarks in a question and answer session with an audience. he wants to get the neutral by september and thinks the economy is in good shape. he thinks inflation, that the great the fed watches will be down to 3% or lower in 2023. he says he can see lots of scenarios where maybe that will not happen in the fed will have to do more, but i would say we got a somewhat dovish statement from someone who has been at the fed for a couple of decades. he has been at the stance before, right? and this is where he is at now. rishaad: kathleen hays. john woods is still with us. credit suisse. i have to ask you something, you hear all these voices, what did you make of

here is susan powell. �* here is susan powell. afternoon. here is susan powell. afternoon.ere we go _ here is susan powell. afternoon. here we go this _ here is susan powell. afternoon. here we go this afternoon - here is susan powell. afternoon. here we go this afternoon with i here is susan powell. afternoon. | here we go this afternoon with the weather. it is a little bit mixed out there at the moment. there is a pile of cloud across the uk. the son is doing its best to punch some holes in it from time to time. at the moment cloud doesn't necessarily equate to rain. this afternoon where we get the best bright spells, they are the places where most likely to see some showers. through the week nothing too intense in terms of rain. afairly nothing too intense in terms of rain. a fairly settled the picture. this afternoon some brightness showing through for the south west of england, wales, northern ireland already seeing some showers. the odd one could be on the heavy side. into the evening that risk will continue. across eastern england brightening up across eastern englan

the global supply chain is so messed up they don't blame powell. they see this as a total situation. these guys are wildly -- are wild sellers now, i'm going to let you in to something, i want to whisper it, just you and me, these are people who fear that russia is going to drop a tactical nuke on kyiv these are people who fear that china is going to invade taiwan, who think that our country is weak and the russians and china are strong they will never say this out loud because it makes them sound like they're crazy remember, this is between you and me this camp is secretly very afraid, wake up afraid, go to bed afraid they think millions are about to die from the mad men in the kremlin unless it's killed and world war iii is here and don't care what jay powell says because jay is not talking about how everybody is going to die. look, other than the predator that everybody is going to die doesn't rash with me can we have those horrible things we can have every horrible thing. anything horrible can happen these people are sellers because of china an

>> the the -- the markets went into the powell press conference priced for peak hawkish and is. all that they took out is the fact that the fine line with 75 basis points. it was a release rally. we are seeing the u.s. futures cut off at the end. either people are invested in strategies, i am puzzled why the market had reacted so strongly. it had sold off a lot, it was not looking for something to rebound from the steep losses. it looks like a short term. . relief someone called it during a break at investors. -- throwing a brick at investors. it is a sustainable rally, there is a relief that for the time being, the 75 basis points is somewhat out of the way to call it, it has been interpreted as being dovish, it is a little bit more of a hawkish dollar there as well. shery: let us get over to vonnie with the first word headlines. >> jp morgan ceo says the fed should have moved faster in raising interest rates. he said the u.s. economy is strong and he sees a one third chance of it leading to a soft landing. he says it is the same chance for a mild recession. >> the fed is going

and the big event this hour, fed chair powell, as president biden pushes his own plan to bring pricesn. with ilit result in more hawkish fed than markets current hey expect and oil jumping again today, hitting $118 barrel as a gasoline futures hit another record high. and spending on big-ticket items is starting to slow. is the hit exaggerated by return to services or is inflation to blame? >> if you look tit right now, it se seems like hoe, hum, nothing is going on the nasdaq is up 35. modest moves but consider the fact that at the lows of the day, the net composite index for the nasdaq is up 189 points. you can see very much off the session lows for both the dow industrials and the s&p. the s&p 41.55. trying to find footing in a market that has been very volatile for the memorial day celebration in the united states if you lock at where the happenings are, are the positivity is in the market, it's in some of the growth and technology-oriented trade. if you look at a couple of etfs rrb. that top the white line verses the orange line, which is theivalue stocks woe know values habeen o

>> powell said he did not know.hey do not know what the effect of the balance sheet runoff is in terms of rate hikes. they hope it works. there is no way to be sure. the runoff that they are talking about will not be achieved for some time. interest rates go up, they have two more trillion dollars worth of mbs. sitting on the balance sheet. repayment and refinance is going to cut down the runoff of those securities which are all 30 year mortgages. what is going to happen is they are not going to achieve that $35 billion runoff. has a balance sheet is not to shrink as much -- the balance sheet is not what you trick as much as anticipated. subsidized, another problem they will have in terms of allocation problems. i think they need to be prepared to shell assets. both mbs and treasury. shery: how much does that complicate the picture given that we continue to see the friendly market and despite mortgage rates rising, the lack of how the inventory is now cooling off? >> it is not. i can understand why they were buying

what did you take away from jay powell yesterday? hannah: they are really prioritizing the fight against inflation right now even if we see a little bit of pain for the economy. investors might be wondering, they have really not priced in the hikes of rates, and we might not see that unless we see the cpi data coming down. tom: where do we get to above neutral if we get above neutral? what would that mean for equities? hannah: markets are looking for any sense of optimism at the moment and they are positive they can take away the longer duration sector to try and rebound. we saw that yesterday. if we can hit that point in time, we might see a slower rebound and the problem is that it comes from such a high base that we have seen a call back, so this will be volatile territory for the time being. francine: is recession now noticeable and what does that mean for stocks? hannah: if you look at the long-duration sectors, there is a lot of fallback, but the more cyclical parts of the market are starting to come under pressure from this an

here is susan powell. �* here is susan powell. afternoon. here is susan powell. afternoon.. here we go this afternoon with i here is susan powell. afternoon. | here we go this afternoon with the weather. it is a little bit mixed out there at the moment. there is a pile of cloud across the uk. the son is doing its best to punch some holes in it from time to time. at the moment cloud doesn't necessarily equate to rain. this afternoon where we get the best bright spells, they are the places where most likely to see some showers. through the week nothing too intense in terms of rain. afairly nothing too intense in terms of rain. a fairly settled the picture. this afternoon some brightness

so what advice would you give jay powell. he's already done the policy part.f with this preamble we understand america is tough, you're struggling but later on he sort of seemed to be bailing out wall street. >> yeah, he's doing something better than president biden is and that is at least acknowledging the pain, but what he has done in the past year is he continues to be wishy washy on what he thinks is actually taking place of course talking about inflation being transitory and wishy washy about how dangerous inflation is and even this week he said that he doesn't think there's going to be a stiff recession but when you talk to economists, business owners, most people think there's a tough two years ahead. they think there will be a recession so i think what we're getting from jay powell is a lot of uncertainty where he's saying one thing but the rest of the country is realizing that's not accurate and are doing something different. charles: you mentioned president biden his poll numbers are incomplete freefall. his messaging to me is always, it's divisive,

fed chair powell clipped the hawkish wings, check the volt of electricity on the chart when powell during that news conference effectively nixed the prospect of future, bigger double barrel hikes listen. >> 75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering. what we are doing is we raised 50 basis points today and we've said that again, assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table for next couple of meetings, so we're going to make those decisions at the meetings, of course and we'll be paying close attention to the incoming data and the evolving -- liz: okay, so data dependent joining me now to kind of parse everything that he has said, mizuho securities chief economist steve risuto and stifel chief economist, lindsay piexa. lindsay, i want to begin with you. what did powell say in your opinion that gives you the best idea of how he and the fomc will proceed beyond, we'll start to see 50 basis point

yesterday, with powell, they want powell to be up on the market.hey want to take down as it prices across the board in order to be absolutely certain that inflation is coming down as quickly as they want. a sickly, i understand that. i get it. i think the idea is not that rates are going higher for longer, if you like. i think the idea is rates are normalized where they should be. the long and. the problem they have is they are not going to stabilize until we see the data for the way that powell expects it to do. we are trying to get into territory, you don't know how far things will go. the biggest issue that people keep forgetting is it is not about the fundamentals. it is about the outlook. it is about the buyers. what are they worried about? there are a lot of foreign buyers, and they want stability. they will come back on stability but not when there is all of this volatility. that is a problem with stabilizing the market, which is why we are seeing overshoot territory. lisa: since you see the 10 year yield ranging from 1.5 to 3.5, and not bey

why do you think powell is just winging it in reality, isn't that what he should do?ause we don't really know what will unfold so there is going to be a certain degree of quote, unquote winging it >> oh, i agree they're going to raise rates they're going to shrink the balance sheet and see what happens. part of the winking it was he was asked a question why aren't you starting qt now instead of waiting until june 1 he said we just decided to pick that day there was no science behind that then he was asked well, what's going to be the impact of qt well, we just really don't know. well, if you don't know the impact of qt, then why would we have qe? how would you know the impact of that there is a lot of throw stuff against the wall and see what happens. and i think they did that on the easing side, and they're going do that on the tightening side >> hey, peter, it's bk he talked a little bit about the path to a softer, softish landing where. do you stand on that it seems to me that that's a pretty narrow needle that he needs to thread. >> well, this is going to be the m

the president will meet with jay powell later on at the white house today.on meeting since powell, again, was confirmed to a second term in november in a wall street journal op-ed, the president said he will support the fed. the most important things we can do now to transition from rapid recovery to stable growth is to bring inflation down he says that's why he has made tackling inflation the top priority let's talk more about this with jimmy pethokoukis with the american enterprise institute. he is a cnbc contributor jimmy, thank you for joining us. we are feeling it. millions of americans are feeling it millions around the world are feeling pricing pressure is there anything that can be done from the white house and/or the federal reserve to tackle this in a meaningful way in the next coming few months >> dom, i think what the president is saying both by the lunch or this meeting today and that wall street journal op-ed is the main thing the president can do which is to say i support the federal reserve. i, unlike my predecessor, i support the fed. that s

how is bailey's time continuant different from powell and christine lagarde? andrew: it is really nice to be here with you. i think you put it rightly, these are three central banks with slightly different challenges. i think with the u.s. you have a clearly strong economy, and i think that is more of a classic challenge of central bank policy that is trying to slow a strong economy where employment is very strong and where a lot of that inflation is coming through the core parts of the inflationary channel. for the ecb it is different. the inflation is a lot less and the core elements of cpi. the inflation is a lot more being driven by energy and food prices, and the risks to the economy are this very binary geopolitical risk to the energy markets, more so than probably traditional slowing of fiscal policy or other factors. i think when it comes to the ecb, there is a low bit more flexibility. you also have a negative rates scenario, unlike the bank of england and the fed, getting out of negative rates is something we think to be broader buy-in to . i think t

powell's fed is roughly a fully employed america.the president listen to these two about jobs in america in this horrific inflation? brian: he will listen to them and underscore his core point, which is he intends to provide the fed with the space it needs to operate. as you know, he has nominated a quality slate of people, including at the top of that slate chair powell, to lead the federal reserve through this challenging time, and he intends to give them the space to operate, but we are in an environment, unique environment, and we have unique economic strength right now. the job market and the labor market being chief among them. household balance sheets are in a very strong position because over the course of this recovery , americans have been able to save more and pay down debt. we are seeing small business creation up at record levels. we have unique economic strengths with's position us well -- strengths which position us well. the economic choices we make with congress play an important role as well. all of that will be on

powell and mr.as being pleasant to the fed and throwing a nice in the fed's way. they are trying to set up the meeting to be -- i think what we have here is a problem. the president is arguing that the economy is doing extremely well after the demise we had in the economy the problems that were coming with covid and how seriously the economy fell in 2021 and rebounding. you go back as quickly as we did a year and a half, we will bounce back as violently like we did in the month and a half, 2 months or 3 months or so. gdp was down in first quarter and i think we will be in recession by the third quarter. i think the president's rhetorical today was ill-advised and soft to federal reserve bank. the president has appointed two or three new governors to the fed all of whom are going to be expansionary. inflation can s a problem that is seriously incumbent in the economy and it's going to be with us for quite some period of time in the future. until the fed gets a relatively large decline in balance shee

we had hawkish remash from fed chair powell.oring front loading to get inflation under control before moving to a special place of tightening. s.e.c. futures we are seeing them up at the moment and we see some respect including the risk currencies like the aussie dollar. our next guest has done greater china. let's bring in minishi ray charles. are you comfortable still with that given that it does seem like we're seeing signs of a bombing when it comes to the -- the regulatory crackdown, that's. >> the proximate news is clearly positive. you know, we have seen hang hydra wally moving to where it's it's -- we've seen positive news through about the regulatory pressures on the tech university. >> so i think you know, that's in the near term, we will have some outperformance from china. and that would possibly pull up the sentiment as far as entire creation equity investment. having said that in the plead yum turn. i think the big concern one would have about china is slower consumption. for example. that his decline precipitously

the federal reserve chairman, jay powell, spoke with reporters today. he says the economy is strong but acknowledged inflation is too high chair powell says another half-point rate hike should be on the table for the next couple of fed meetings. cnbc's steve liesman then asked powell this question >> you talked about using 50 basis point rate hikes or the possibility of them in coming meetings might there be something larger than 50? is 75 or a percentage point possible >> the answer was no he ruled out larger rate hikes and the dow started to surge it ended the session up more than 900 points, the best day since november of 2020 s&p and nasdaq also closed solidly in the green the man behind the question that got the answer that launched the rally joins us live now. steve liesman, seems 75 points may have been baked in until that moment. >> all in a day's work i think what happened here is powell eliminated at least some risk for the stock market. it's not that rates aren't going up they're going up and they're going to go up fast. faster than we have s

. >> lake powell has mostly been on a decline for the past two decades. >> reporter: eric balken runs the glen canyon institute, which wants to restore the canyon that was flooded in the 1960s to create lake powell, the nation's second largest reservoir. >> this area that we're in right now is 177 feet below full pool. >> reporter: and when was the last time it was that high? >> full was in 1999. >> reporter: the top of that white bathtub ring is where the water used to be. satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year- long mega-draught. the lake is now just 24% full. >> it looks like we can expect this to be a new normal. >> reporter: climate change is making the west hotter and dryer, threatening the colorado river system. it includes the manmade reservoirs of lake powell in utah, and lake mead in nevada, and provides water for 40 million people in seven states. you had 12 ramps, and now this is all you've got. >> this is all we've got. >> reporter: the national park service has been forced to shut down 11 boat ramps at the lake powell recreation area, and critically-low

jerome powell is crushing bonds is and he? he is but we have not had that kind of volatility that often happens when the fed removes liquidity from the marketplace. no breakdown sub prime, no.com crash. tom: forget about the math here. i had greater shocks on the downside. that is to come. when does it get away from the stability pact we have seen? greg: it would take something from the fed saying that we have not got enough fast enough, but i don't see that happening. i think he will continue to guide interest rates slightly higher. we could be closer to the peak in rates than the bottom. this is not a fed that wants to do shock and awe. they want to control the marketplace, let the medicine take hold. for the past three months, it has. we have seen some indications of a slowdown in the economy. oil prices seem to have leveled off. mortgage application starting to turn down, some of the frothiness taken out of securities markets. it is what you would want to see happen after three months of indicated tightening monetary polic

charles: so, nomi, this is jay powell 3.0. the first jay powell went by the book.ristmas. the next jay powell walked by a homeless man week later had epiphany, changed course. powell 3.0. bill ackman says the fed is not doing their job. they should be much more aggressive fighting runaway inflation. the other jay powell we need to help everyone. we don't need to wreck the economy. there must be serious internal conflict. how do you read those tea leaves? >> i will go with jay powell 4.0. we're moving fast with what is happening in the economy and inflation, what the fed is doing. i do think they will raise rates in june. i think they will temper what they say in july. i think they will step back. they were looking what is happening with the markets, what is happening with the economy. wait a minute. now we've gone the wrong way the other direction, versus wrong way in the first direction. there will be a little schizo powell. charles: bostick telegraphed that. >> he did. there was something really crucial in these minutes. that, they made mention of treasury market

it includes the manmade reservoirs of lake powell, in utah and lake meat in-- lake mead in nevada and provides water for 47 million people in seven states. >> you had 12 ramps and this st all you have got. >> this is all we have got. >> the national park service has been forced to shut down 11 boat ramps at the lake powell recreation area and critically low lake levels do soon cause the glen canyon dam to stop producing hydro power for more than 5 million people. >> how unprecedented is what is going on here? >> it is completely unprecedented. this lake hasn't been at this level since 1-9d 57. >> at this moment lake powell was born. >> that's when glen canyon was drowned, erasing a landscape often compared to the grand canyon. >> it is a very special place. >> now as the water recedes, the canyon is being reborn. >> it is just stunning in here. >> balken took us to what is called cathedral in the desert, parts of which have not been seen for 60 years. and he showed us this natural bridge that just emerged from the water. >> this bridge was covered by water so what we're boating under,

heading on a three quarters -- jay powell took that on the table. he said we are not doing that right now. it looks like we are going to do half increases over the next two years. you saw equity markets, stock market took off. host: a change -- still a lot of change in the market in a short. of time. what are the risks of all this happen? guest: the risk is you get some sort of very sharp market correction. the fed right now wants to see -- go down. they want to see the stock market weekend. , they need to see bond yields go up. that is the way they slow economic growth. the fed operates through financial markets and what they are trying to do when they raise interest rates is something that we refer to is tightening financial conditions. what that means is you are making it more expensive to borrow, you are making asset values go down. that is going to dampen investment. it will increase saving and it will slow demand in the economy. the reason inflation is high right now is because supply and demand are out of balance. the fed cannot do anything w

what is the markets response to jay powell easing financial conditions. could it be followed by a reversal in decline? at 4:15 p.m., this might be the most interview of the date, to me. michael mckee is speaking with the former fed governor randy quarles. you've picked up on certain things that have been said in the recent past, but i want to hear his comments on basically whether fed chair jay powell has not messed up, but didn't go aggressively enough, or aired in laying out a path for interest rates at a time when the risk right now is to the upside with inflation and how comes out. jonathan: earlier this week, it was said the fed delayed getting on top of inflation because they do not have clarification on leadership in the fed at the white house. in any other week, with the carnage and market mess, that federal reserve decision, this would have been talked about so much more than it has been. so much more. tom: it has been exhausting folks with the news flow. it is extraordinary. i take your point. this would have been much more visible at other time

but then powell warned us no pain, no gain. >> yeah. hear maybe we'll have a softish landing. he talked yesterday really the most i've heard about maybe the unemployment rate is going to have to go up, and they're hoping it'll go up just a few ticks. but when the unemployment rate goes up a little bit, it usually goes up a lot because you're going into a recession. maria: well, that's a great point, and that's what i was asking earlier, are layoffs next? the chairman spoke about the a ability to achieve this soft landing in your interview yesterday. ache a listen. >> also having a strong labor market. it doesn't mean that the unemployment rate needs to remain 3.6% which is very, very low, historically low. it's one-tenth above the 50-year low. you'd sill have quite a -- still have quite a strong labor market if unemployment were to move up a few ticks. so i would say there's a number of. [applause] if about paths to -- plausible path to having a soft or as i've said softish land aring, and our job isn't to handicap the odds, it is to tr

in the states, a complete round trip on powell. under particular pressure. 440 on the stoxx

at the news conference yesterday, powell was saying we are determined to drive the u.s. economy off the cliff, but it will not be the biggest, steepest cliff, it will only be a halfway cliff that we will drive off. it is bad. it is bad policy. it will have very little impact on supply shock inflation. that will come down on its own because of broader solutions to supply shock issues. in the meantime, how much damage can the fed do with 50-basis-point hikes? that's what we will find out, but thank god it is a lot less damage than they could have done with 75-point hikes. haslinda: he pushed back on 75. it does not mean that 75 will not be on the table later in the year. >> think the chance of 75 appearing later in the year is zero because by then we will be in a situation where we have a really slowing u.s. economy where is it's apparent that interest rate hikes have zero relationship to what happens with supply shock inflation. i think it is a matter of how much damage the fed can do, so they are forced to, you know, do an emb about-face and start cutting rates again. wi

powell did it all. investment implications beyond this reaction in the near term >> we're going to get hit pretty hard with monetary combination of removal the punch wasn't as severe i think the other thing about the press conference that was important he is so focused you really need to see this inflation come down and come down in a relatively -- i don't want to say aggressive but in a calculated and continuous way. less than aggressive but i think we should all be on the lookout for something that's more aggressive in the future not an immediate pullback and say all is clear, we nailed this, it's good even if the inflation data comes out. >> also to your point and the fact that he was so serious speaking to the american public about inflation and the duties that they have, i do wonder if there is a policy mistake more in the camp of recession than in letting inflation stay too high for too long and they're willing tolerate that. that's a big risk. >> they are pushing inflation back into a hole they w

signaling from chairman powell today.t raises the question, what would mean for economic growth? the trade-off to growth is slow, is it enough to delay recession, that is another point others have made. the head of new zealand's central bank, with interest rates going the way they are, with all the challenges facing the world and the economy right now, growth is high in one direction, and there is risk of an overheard lining, when you hear people talk about the fight doing -- fed doing 75 basis point, they talk about hard landing. dani: i think it's interesting, we had that fed today and then the boe is on deck as well. are they also a preview of what's to come for the fed, if they have to pull back to to economic concerns in the u.k.? >> francine: they say the problem is it feels like the central banks are scared of the markets. everything has been -- they always need to give indication to the market, it doesn't give them enough tools to do the shock and awe that maybe we need when inflation is at 8%. dani: they probably

and, steve, this week we heard jay powell talking about the situation that we're in.e was confirmed, by the way, by the senate for a second term. and afterwards he said, well, we probably made a mistake many not raising -- in not raising interest rates a little sooner, admitting that they were way behind the curve in terms of, you know, building up that balance sheet as well as making such an easy money environment for so long. can the fed engineer a soft landing? that is, take interest rates all the way up but not take the economy into recession? >> yeah, only in government would that kind of failure be rewarded by another term. and in the private sector, you'd be looking for other opportunities. but the fact of the matter is when the federal reserve talks about this soft landing, what they want to do slow the economy down but not have a full-blown recession. just hope money of those governors in the federal reserve is ever piloted an airplane, you'd want to stay away from it. they're going to engineer a serious slowdown, and the federal reserve doesn't understand th