chair powell: good afternoon, everyone. my colleagues and i remained squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. we understand the hardship high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation down to our 2% goal. price stability is a responsibility of the federal reserve. without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. since early last year, the fomc has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. we have raised our policy interest rate i-5 and a quarter percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace. the stance of policy is restrictive meaning tight policy is putting tight downward pressure on economic activity and inflation in the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and cont

[ laughter and applause i guess the better question for powell would have been, "who wasn't involvede conspiracy to steal the election?" "big tech companies, social media companies, home furnishing companies, all the major sports leagues, the airlines, every steak house in new york city, chili's, both the country, the restaurant and the temperature [ laughter ] and all the major soda brands excluding diet dr. pepper because no one in their right mind would consider that monstrosity a soda [ laughter ] [ cheers and applause in that same interview with the january 6th committee, powell also confirmed that trump at one point tried to appoint her special counsel to investigate the 2020 election. >> on friday he had asked me to be special counsel to address the election issues. he asked pat cipollone if he had the authority to name me special counsel. and he said, "yes. and then he asked him if he had the authority to give me whatever security clearance i needed and pat cipollone said, "yes." and then the president said, "okay. you know, i'm naming her that and i'm giving her security cle

breaking now all eyes on jay powell, right? the fed chief, with investors turning bullish, looking to the extend the longest winning streak in two years. here's the problem, we know about it, we said it a million times it is a handful of names that are dominating but is this really a bad thing? by the way, what is the other side of the story? how many stocks are underperforming? we'll talk to economists and some of the best on the street what we should be looking at starting with charles schwab chief investment strategist liz ann sonders. do banks, how well do they do in recession. eric najarian is here to answer the question. which bank stocks look most intriguing to her. what do traders and primates have in common? my takeaway on the politics of envy in a new weight loss craze. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right so stop me if you heard this before but today's session is all about jay powell and bond yields. this of course on the heels of a positive reaction to yesterday's 10-year action. today

ellis might find that applies to her new friends giuliani and powell. ellis convicted, powell, convicted. giuliani awaits their damning testimony in court. all that led jenna ellis down a path that was far more than over. it was a crime leading to her infamous confession and courtroom apology. >> i believe in and value election integrity. if i knew then what i knew now -- i look back on this full experience with deep remorse. >> deep remorse. this is a legal process. it took a long time. there was a lot of lies and bs. there was a lot of foot dragging. there was doubt about whether any of this would go anywhere. now there's skepticism. will it be enough in what will happen to the big fish? d.a. made news today saying his trial might come after election. no one said the process is perfect or that it always works, but we are getting a window into how it works. these rico sessions are part of the nuts and bolts and testimony, even if the d.a., by her own public statement, is upset they're out right now, because that wasn't, she says, the strategy. this stu

i don't think the market misinterpreted powell last week. i think powell may, today, be suggesting that maybe he was a bit more dovish. and maybe that's my unwillingness to admit my own mistake. but i thought he was dovish last week and i think today he's a bit more hawkish i think he feels a need, perhaps, to put that possibility of another rate hike on the table to keep the market from being too sanguine about the possibility the fed is done. and then having completed those remarks, i'm going to take a very quick look -- there is a very slight rise, guys, in the probability of rate hikes. still remains low. if he had wanted to get it back on the table, he hasn't completely succeeded but say the possibility of a hike in january has gone from 15% to 20% and maybe some reduction in the probability of a rate cut come june from 68 to 6. so, not a lot there. the market's not buying it yet one of the things that powell has going for it is data next week we get inflation data. and i don't think powell really has to say very much if that ends up be

powell's comments or the bond auction with weak demand >> we think it was chairman powell's comments. we think it comes out of last week's meeting we thought the market maybe had it wrong last week getting so excited around the equity markets and risk assets. we think it came back to earth with the belief the fed is restrictive and hold on to higher rates for longer. that put a hit on the equity markets. >> certainly i want to go back to jay powell's comments. are they really a shock? the fed continues to say higher for longer and data dependent. we have a couple of other reports coming up on tuesday why is this such a shock to the market >> it is news to us. we felt the fmoc was pretty clear last week and has been clear over the last few months with what they want to achieve as you showed on the chart earlier, the pce is higher than where they like it they want it get it down to the 2% mark. they want to be restrictive as long as that needs to happen gto get inflation down we think we are getting back in line where the fed would want it in a certain extent, the fmoc wants risk assets

i want to get reaction to what powell had to say yesterday.lready seen comments from bill dudley, which the cony there is a language change from jay powell that those tighter conditions we were seeing suddenly ease and that complicates the job for the fed going forward. >> yeah, there's a lot of focus on that. the bond market got a windfall from the treasury. there was a little bit less long-term debt they are going to sell this quarter. that helped, and then chairman powell came along, and he will seek to take it as the fed has ugly done, but you are right. he talked about the financial conditions, one of them is the higher rates. i do see a lot of strategists saying there's a risk to that. we have stocks up and most of the yield curve with lower yields that could kind of ease financial conditions too much, but he did clarify it has to be persistent. a day or two of easing is not going to up and there schema. i think they are getting to the lags in the system, that some of this tightening will work its way through, but some economists say he

we'll hear from jay powell later.all street seeing no rate hikes, staying where we are, june of next year a rate cut. i want to bring in ubs private wealth managing director alli mccarthy. let's start with this. where are you? everyone is saying jay powell is going to articulate today at least one more rate hike but we don't see it in the fed funds futures or anything like that. where are you? >> we don't see it either, and largely the reason we don't see it because of all the tightening that has happened within the yield curve itself, all the dynamics, technical dynamics you pointed to, treasury having to issue more than expected and the fed the largest buyer in the past rolling down their balance sheet. so there are issues there. you know, i think, we have a 5 1/2% interest rate. we still are just starting to see signs that that's penetrating the market in terms of things like the job picture. we still see growth at close to 5%. charles: right. >> so this is a really confusing picture not only for investors but for

scarlet: he stomped jay powell with his -- stumped jay powell with his question.the sky at one point. tom: i don't disagree. tomorrow,. the surprise last month -- tomorrow, payroll. the surprise last month of 38 6,000. scarlet: considering where we are in this economy. before we get to that we have jobless claims in about 15, 20 minutes. that is slated to come in at 210,000. we also have factory orders. tom: you only need the s&p 500 up 0.7%. we say good morning. scarlet fu doing double duty. this has been fun. we have not been together since nixon was president. [laughter] scarlet: glad we are together on air. tom: what is amazing -- i have said this for years -- another headline, walt disney. espn bet to debutt with planned launch. it is a new online sports book. scarlet: it is partnership they made. i think it struck people as curious. pen gaming and disney -- tom: what is pen gaming? scarlet: i know him as the barstool guy. tom: ok. i miss bramo. scarlet: you could be talking about soccer with jon ferro instead. tom:tom: i have learned more about hulu today th

>> i think powell was practically perfect yesterday. he basically came out and said there are two pre-conditions for, you know, lower interest rates going forward. one, we have to re-balance the labor market. we are seeing that. it is coming from the supply side which is interesting. that is why gdp growth remains robust. the second part of it is we have to see, you know, gdp growth that's below potential. what's interesting, and this was the most dovish thing in the statement, is the 4.9% gdp in the third quarter, don't worry about that. that was catch up. we are still growing below potential. both of the pre-conditions are there and the fed is in pause and reflect mode. the bias is loosening, not tightening. >> one thing he was concerned about was inflation. he maintained the fact that 2% inflation is the fed target. we have three more inflation reports coming up before the next meeting. how do you see that impacting the markets? >> the fed in their september sep projected 3.7% by the end of the year. it is 3.7% today. they are ahead

and here powell said today, the hey, you know what? if we get it, we decide meeting by meeting, but if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy, we will not hesitate. why aren't they up? >> i think the banks have other issues. i would generally agree with you the banks are where you want to be in a rising interest rate environment, but i think they have other systemic problems just in running their businesses. a lot of competition. electronic banking, etc., which they've the never had before. some of the big brokerage firms like schwab, you know, a lot of the old big brokerage firms have morphed into almost banking-like institutions now. i own the banks. i'm not sure that's where i would go. look at all the big pharma stocks, they're all trading at their lows. there are plenty of sectors that offer a good value, but are they value traps? i mean, that remains to be seen. i would rather go with stocks with a more growth-type profile and insurance companies in particular because they can benefit, they really benefit from these higher inte

chair powell, pushing back on rate cuts.ner tone from jay powell, that we should not be getting ahead of ourselves in terms of where we are with this rate hike cycle. this is the third and final day of the bloomberg new economy forum here in sydney. we will be talking about the claimant transition coming in the investment, what it looks like in a world of higher inflation and higher rates for longer, is the energy transition at risk here? a lot of great conversations, touching on the keystone topics we will be talking about all week, globalization, re-globalization, ai. first let's get to the market open with belle. >> we've got the start of trading for japan and cash treasuries. it is really about jay powell today and what we heard out of the conference at the imf in washington. the headline coming through is jay powell will not hesitate to tighten further, if needed. that really put a lot of risk aversion back into markets. we saw stocks dropping into the close. the outset for trading today, again dominated by that sentime

we thought we had it and then powell spoke and then powell spoken we do not have it.does this have to do with the fed and its policy when people are citing potential inflation or people are citing where are the buyers going to come from at a time of changing policy overseas? kathy: i tend to think it has the do with three things that always influence the trend and rate. what the fed is doing -- because you have to discount that. you cannot get around the fed no matter how hard you try. what inflation is doing, which is tending to recede, and how the economy is performing. and then you get into other things like supply and who is buying and china and japan. but the foreign flows have been pretty steady despite this chatter. we have had the foreign flows hold steady. the reserves are pretty steady. i am less worried about that. fiscal policy, obviously, a concern, but is it a concern today versus yesterday versus a week ago? that is a hard argument to make. tom: my clipping coupons or can i invest for total return? kathy: i think you can get total return. hate is not th

powell had to say today in that bond auction. thank you so much for being here we will see you soon our question of the day. what is the biggest risk to stocks right now rates, inflation, valuations, or geopolitics? you can head to @cnbc cash flows closing bell >>> duolingo is trading at the highest level since 2021 after hiking the full year revenue the language learning company is spreading its wings with the addition of music and math courses to the app those shares are up 21%. >>> sony is lower after the japanese electronics giant posted declines in profit. especially in north america. but the company is sticking with the playstation 5 sales target as they head into the holiday season you can see shares down 6.5% scott. >> thank you. >>> we are just getting started here on "closing bell. up next, kevin simpson is back he has more trades to tell you about, too, including the new name he is buying. it's already doubled double the s&p 500 this year he will make his case for more upside after this break. live from the new york st

who matters more, yellen or powell? >> i think it is definitely powell.ive around the long end moving because of the extra supply mattered a little. certainly when we got the issuance numbers back in late july or august and it certainly matter today when we have less issuance than the consensus thought although we have to pat ourselves on the back because we came pretty close to what the treasury department data in our forecast. really is this big move up in the expectations for where the terminal rates go once the federal reserve does ultimately cut rates. we thought with the market price for the fed to come to 2.5%. now will only be cutting to 4%. that has to show up in longer-term yields and that's where most of this premium really came from is the shift in long-term market expectations. michael: what he said. [laughter] michael: i think you nailed it there. the golden rule is he who has the gold makes the rules and he has the gold a.k.a. the printing press. is capitol hill and they are knocking to do anything. it's powell who will move markets around.

what did the fed do and what was the message from powell? >> that the economy is stronger than expected but still week. it is confusing, you are right. it grew 5% in the last quarter and jobs numbers have revised upwards but earlier this week of the eci came in stronger-than-expected and i think they tied their hands a few weeks ago when they took november off the table and i think it is a mistake. >> you have known jay powell for 10 years. our politics and play? >> more -- are politics in play? >> more than that i think the fed sees a soft landing and they try to drive it. they tried to do it last december and we were forced into further rate hikes this year. in march there was the banking crisis. and it has not happened. next year is a contentious presidential election. they are politically aware. they do not want to be part of the political conversation. if they want to do something, they should do it now. >> powell acknowledged financial conditions have tightens and yields have helped but look at where markets are. and unraveling of yiel

and then there is sidney powell, an attorney, on video. she tells prosecutors that trump believed that he had won. >> he knew he had been -- he was -- all his instincts told him he had been defrauded, that the election was a big fraud. >> when you say his instincts, did he ever describe that in any way? did he ever point to any kind of proof or evidence or anything he was getting from his other attorneys or experts? >> well, he talked about, you know, seeing the vote totals rolled backwards on the tv. >> yeah. see, that's not evidence. and he didn't see that because that didn't happen. like so many claims trump makes about the election. he didn't see vote totals roll back on the tv. that's in somebody's mind maybe. not fact. it's actually provably false. powell divulges she pressed donald trump to appoint her and if he had done so, she says she would have tried to seize election equipment. she even said she had considered using the military to get that equipment. tellingly, powell admits she had never even practiced election law before. wh

is what jay powell is saying it is difficult to forecast. janet mui, thank you >>> time for the check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. >> good morning, frank breaking news overnight and end to the four-month long actors strike a tentative three-year agreement with the studios the two sides coming to agreement with protections against a.i. and pay increases this now goes to the national board for approval tomorrow. >>> turning to the economy in china and inflation pressure fresh data showing consumer prices dipped back below zero last month that figure was driven down by a slump in pork prices producer cost declines deepened in october >>> the federal reserve is apparently reviewing morgan stanley's wealth management arm. they are looking to see if they have proper controls in place to keep from laundering money the report adds that the fed scolded the bank for not making the changes needed >> silvana, thank you very much. see you later on in the show. >>> we have a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one w

we're minutes away from comments from fed chair jay powell. we'll get some more analysis after a quick break. megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. all running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends the systems running america's infrastructure. for these services. for the 336 million of us living here. ♪ c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. for the 336 million it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. >>> welcome back. the fed leaving interest rates unchanged for the second time saying inflation remains e

what are you hearing from jay powell?e spoke that rates are doing a better job and he still believes we could see that quote, unquote soft landing. what are you expecting to hear from the news conference? >> we had the shift in rhetoric how that's tightening financial conditions and that does some of the work for the rate hike for the fed. but since that, we've had strong data and some fed officials kind of shifting back toward reminding us that ultimately they are data dependent. i think our forecast, the way we see the data playing out, the fed can stay on hold and we're not pencilling another hike in december, but it go oink to be very dependent specific. >> pce, two cpis before the november/december decision. does that mean we're going to see the fed stop its rate hiking campaign and we're possibly, possibly on the path to cuts? >> yeah. this is our -- we're thinking we're at the terminal level now already, but that chance of a hike is still on the table. certainly today's meeting, there won't be an updated dot plot.

fed chair jerome powell said that the u.s. central bank will continue to move carefully in its bid to tame inflation. the federal reserve governor did not take the possibility of future hikes off the table. >> if it becomes appropriate to take the party further, we will not hesitate to do so. we will continue to move carefully however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data and the risk of over tightening. kriti: joining us for more on this, paul dobson. i'm quickly searching on my terminal just how big the move was in yesterday's session. if you look at the volatility in the yield market, it was pretty significant. are the markets replacing -- repricing the dovish bets you saw? paul: there are two really interesting things that were moving the bond market yesterday. one of them was the powell testimony. the second was the 30 year bond yacht -- auction. powell was may be expected to carry on giving this kind of recognition to the idea that financial conditions have been tightening, pa

what is going on across these markets is what we heard from jay powell. the fed is not going to hesitate to raise rates if needed. they are still data-dependent. essentially it pours cold water into the rally we have seen. certainly, that will be a key we are watching and markets today. it is basically risk off when it comes to stocks. we are at session lows, down 1% from your asia benchmark. this is how we are seeing it market to market. indonesia is coming online now. the whole discussion of whether the fed is done, we thought that would calm markets. now volatility is reigniting once again. you have to wonder, and change in that tone if it is enough to price in another rate hike, or was this correcting the narrative? we heard that from bostic as well. we cannot colby and -- we cannot call the victory on inflation. u.s. futures are flat. we are seeing some downside when it comes to japan. we are watching the greater china markets closely. we are down close to 2% this morning. certainly, there was the fed discussion, now you have this icbc hack that did

coming up, fed chair powell is set to speak in about an hour.ould be market moving e vevevents we'll check in with our guest about that >>> all is quiet on the ipo front, too quiet this time of year is typically strong for public debuts we'll look at what is going on

jay powell spooked market as he he left the door open for future rates.peaking at a panel discussion at the imf, powell said he believes the fed faces equal risks of raising the benchmark rate too high or not raising it high enough. he said officials were hopeful with the retreat in prioce pressure >> we are committed to achieving a chance to bring inflation down to% over time. we know ongoing progress to the 2% goal is not assured inflation has given us a few head fakes along the way if it is appropriate to tighten further, we will not hesitate to do so. we will move carefully addressing the risk of being misled by a few good months of data and overtightening risks. >> all three majors ended in negative territory nasdaq lost 1% the dow jones industrial average lost about 220 points. a broad-based selloff across wall street. putting the moves into context, joumanna mentioned the description of the move higher moderate, but momentous. s&p gaining for eight sessions in a row one down day has reversed that for the week s&p now .25% lower on the week the dow

powell said it was unclear if that would occur. that's because risk between doing too much and doing too little will now become more balanced. >> it's fair to say that's the question we're asking. it's not, you know, that is the question and you're right, that, in september, we wrote down one additional rate hike, but you know, we'll write down another forecast, as you know, in december. >> powell said the rise in yields was among the reasons that the fed could hold, at least at its current level, with sharply higher rates doing the work for the fed. but he said those gains have to be persistent in order to hold the fed at bay. let's look at what happened. today, yields fell sharply and meaningfully with the treasury announcing a slightly more upbeat refunding plan for the growing u.s. debt. and with the announcement from the fed. okay. so, the fed's statement upgraded the economy and jobs, but noted that tighter financial and credit conditions would likely weigh on the economy. the result of all this, the fed remains on temporary

the morning after the fed, delivering the hawkish hold by chair powell.g the cautious tone in the press conference. a smaller than expected that as well and we also had manufacturing coming lower. that is a future across equity markets as we set out for the open in sydney, trading is underway in five minutes or so, we are seeing an upside of .7%. equity futures are looking higher when it comes to the rest of the region as well. we are seeing new zealand a little bit of upside. of upside when it comes to the kiwi. -- an upside when it comes to the q. week. u.s. dollar slipping in a choppy trading session. fed holding steady for the second meeting there. daybreak asia is next as we get into the start of trading, the morning after the fed we are saying equity futures across the region advancing following the rally in u.s. stocks and bonds. hopes of the rate hikes from the fed may though overcome what we are saying on export japan, australia, and hong kong all rising. the trading in sydney in a few minutes, this is bloomberg. ♪ so... i know you and george wer

because he will be in that room asking chair powell a question today. what do you think is likely, steve, we get today from the chair? >> i think there is some risk here the chair tries to be a little bit more hawkish than the market is. he has a couple problems here. the first problem he has is, remember, the committee statement is still sort of leaning toward an additional hike. so is, as far as we know, the most recent forecast. then he has the strong economic data that still seems to be out there a bit weaker today. the bigger problem is how the market is priced. you were just talking about that. take a look at the probabilities here. zero on november. that will happen today. that's not the one i want to talk about. look at what after the september meeting, 21% probability in december. 28% in january. almost no chance in the market the fed hikes. the change from december where he had the market on an even chance of a huge and now it's just 21%. what is the question here? does the chair try to move the market back to a place where he has flexibility?

the data will dictate whether they're done, not powell's words. the cpi release next week will help, and then you're going to get other inflation reads. and if those come in favorable, the market will make a determination as to whether they're done >> i agree with that and then -- it's a tale of two cities, right? there's the market and then there's the economy. regardless of whether the fed is done, the economy is continuing to, i think, decline and we see that not every single data point from theconsumer bu i think the body of work of the data points clearly points to that as well as the commentary of the people that are sitting at the top of the food chain that know the heads of the banks, et cetera, that see defaults and default rates, activity in loans, et cetera then there's the market. the market is a discounting mechanism and the market particularly over the last few years, as you see the new group of investors mature into the market that are a lot younger than the typical group that have seen v-shaped recovery since 2008 and the fed ridin

reporter: hi, chair powell. megan with barrons. thank you for taking our questions. i wanted to see if you can talk about the neutral rate. you mentioned you're debating if rates are sufficient restrictive and you've said that evidence is suggesting policy is not too tight right now. curious if you could e lab late on that at all -- elaborate on that at all and if that means the neutral rate in your view has risen? >> yeah, first thing to say is that it's a very important variable in the way we think about monetary policy, but you can't identify it with any precision in realtime. we know that. so you have to just take that -- take your estimate of it with a grain of salt. what we know now is, you know, within a range of estimates of the neutral rate policy is restrictive, and it's therefore putting downward pressure on economic activity hiring inflation and we do talk about this. there's not any debate or attempt to sort of agree as a group on what -- whether our stars have moved and some think it has and others don't. ultimately it's unknowable and really again what

finally, thursday, jay powell speaking again.fter on friday, you have christine lagarde speaking for the ecb. one final thought before i let you go, because in addition to public markets, i'm looking at private ones. hire for longer rates in the private market means more borrowing. you have private equity firms taking out loans at 60%. if you thought 5% was a lot on the 10 year look at what borrowing costs look like if you are borrowing to stave off current borrowing costs into the future longer. from new york, same time, same place next week. that does it for us here at real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ jon: welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: let's get a quick check. looking at 1% gain on the s&p 500. if we close the session and the green every single day this week we have been up as the market thinks the fed is done and continues to see signs like the jobs number this morning. the fed does not need to raise rates again. the 10-year yield coming and 11 basis points.

>> well, the overall powell proffer is not as strong as the ellis proffer because powell doesn't as conclusivelyepudiate the events of the run-up to january 6th, but her -- but, still, there are points of value in her -- this is one, why? donald trump has already signaled he wants to defend himself by saying, i relied on the lawyers. that is a technical legal defense, but only if you're taking the advice of the lawyers in good faith. if you're picking and choosing your lawyers based upon the outcome you want, you don't get to use that defense, and so this shows that she's a firsthand direct witness to the conversation with trump. it kind of goes back to the scavino point. we're not going to leave no matter what, and i'm going to pick the lawyers who will give me the advice to let plme stay in context a damaging moment in the disclosures of the video proffers. >> it is interesting, because you also make the point, we got to go, hers might be seen as weaker testimony to provide because at one point "the washington post" said at one point in the powell interview, she said that trump really did beli

taking a look at futures, the post-powell celebration continues. s&p futures up 38.e are seeing buying across the board. nasdaq also getting a bid, about 200 points, continuing yesterday's afternoon rally. it's actually the fourth consecutive day of gains on the back of lower treasury yields. our road map starts with the fed one day after its rate decision. we're going to break down wall street reaction. >>> on the earnings front, starbucks among this morning's top gainers. demand for higher priced beverages helping to fuel better than expected results. >>> we also have anti-obesity drugs driving quarterly profits but there's much more to that story. we will fill you in on this very busy day of earnings. >>> we're going to begin with the aftermath of yesterday's fed decision, yields moving lower this morning, down s&p, each aiming for a fourth straight day of gains, nasdaq going for five, jim. the market heard what it wanted to hear, which is that they think the fed's done. >> a lot of shorts have to cover. i felt a combination of what powell said, which was basicall

you may remember sidney powell.ed crazy conspiracy theories about how the ghost of hugo chavez rigged the 2020 election, and promised to publish non-existent evidence of widespread fraud, vowing to release the kraken. turns out in the end, it was less "release the kraken" and more "i think she might be smoking the kraken." powell wasn't known just for talkin' crazy. she was also known for writin' stupid, because her legal documents were notoriously littered with spelling errors, misplaced states, and client mix-up. in one case, the court was misidentified as "the united states districct court, northern distr-coict of georgia." while in another, she referenced the "suprior" court of the state of arizona. i'm not surprised she spells like that. she got her degree from herrverd lawr. herrverd lawr. perk the ker in herrverd yerd. perk the ker in herrverd yerd. powell pleaded guilty to six counts of conspiracy related to her role in helping to carry out a breach of voting equipment in a rural georgia county and will serv

meanwhile my next guest has affectionately called jay powell, j.j.o here is the question for our next guest, kenny polcari, on j.j. hate stone wealth chief market strategist. i got to ask you, so what do you think about j.j.'s performance because i got to tell you, kenny, looks like wall street is happy with it? >> well, wall street is happy with it but you and i have discussed this. i thought the nervousness going into the last couple of weeks, it started to feed on itself, right? remember every time we broke one of those key technical levels the algorithms sent wave after wave of sells putting us into an oversold condition, a short-term oversold condition. when j.j. comes out, kind of satisfies the markets, janet pulls back a little bit on the amount she will bring to the treasury, everybody taking that as a positive. all of sudden the algos go, everything is cheap, everything is a buy, look what happens. they go scrambling to get back in. we have had three dramatic days in the market. today being just another one. to the point of your prior guest.

jay powell had to make a comment about it saying it was eyeing and the market caught what jay powell was selling and market down 2.9% and following monday down almost 4% and it was an ugly scene. today's report is sort of a conundrum and losing steam on the report, we've regathered that steam and moving back up. i want to bring in someone who can real hardship us at this time jim bianco. jim, there's a chance that some households themselves macon nate tighter inflation and have frustration and you're not sure what they're dependent on. >> that's correct. and that's why the fed pace close attention to these inflation expectation numbers. they like to use the fraise inflation remains well anchored and 12-year high in the out look for inflation is on the 5-10 year outlook, sounds like it's on a green and that that should be more of a concern, but the fed seems to be consist with this idea that they're done for now and they're happy if the market does the work for them, but if you look at what the stock market highways done in the last two weeks, it's not doing anything that would slow t

you're looking right now at a live look at market and powell. thousands of people have been out there, since about 5:00, hoping to get global attention, particularly president biden's attention. the protest is on the move. moving up market street. palestinian demonstrators are calling for a cease-fire to take hold immediately. we're going to keep an eye on the protest. the president is at the mercantile exchange for a fund riser. is that with the protesters are headed? as for the business of the summit, increasing trade, taking action on climate change, economic collaboration, that's under way. a lot of the focus moves to the biggest names of the apec summit, the president of the united states and the chinese president. they have arrived with their own expectations and their own agendas, as well. the motorcade at the fund-raiser i just mentioned. vice president harris and governor newsom will be there. as is scott budman. scott was at the airport when president biden arrived to town. he is there live. heavily-guarded fairmont. and the president

[video clip] chair powell: demand continues to move it into better balance.dp growth in the third quarter wasn't strong but we do expect growth to moderate in coming quarters. that remains to be seen and we are attentive to the risk that stronger growth could undermine further progress in restoring balance to the labor market and ringing inflation down which could warrant a response from monetary policy. the fomc is committed to obtaining a stance that is restricted to bring inflation down to 2%. we are not confident we have achieved such distance. we know progress towards our 2% goal is not assured. inflation has given us a few head fakes. if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so. we will continue to move carefully, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data and overturning. we are meeting it meeting by meeting based on incoming data and applications for the outlook for economic activity, inflation, and the balance of risk as we determine the extent of additional policy that may

chair powell, neil with axios. have you given any consideration to the pace of your asset runoff program and if there were a judgment that the higher term premium was endangering the dual mandate goals, would that be a reason to think about slowing qt or is that a more technical question around reserves? >> so committee is not considering changing the pace of balance sheet runoff, not something we're talking about or considering. and i know there are many candidate explanations for why rates have been going up. and qt is certainly on that list. it may be playing a relatively small effect. i would say at $3.3 trillion in reserves, it is not -- i think it is hard to make a case that reserves are even close to scarce at this point. so that's not something that we're look at right now. >> victoria. >> hi. victoria with politico. i wanted to ask about the basil 3 endgame capital proposal. you've gotten pushback from people on different aspects of the proposal and you expressed some reservations and i'm curious, could yo

so the big question for powell is, do two pauses equal a hold?says yes, the -- but more likely he says maybe, but we continue to be in a wait and see mode. then there's the idea where he will say no, the committee needs to forecast a second hike, the fed needs to do more. don't expect that. look for the maybe, keeping the fed on edge. i think there's a chance fed chair powell redirects the market toward the greater possibility of another hike. the market may decide whatever powell says, it doesn't mean it's going to happen. >> and steve, to what extent is all of this overshadowed by what's happening on the supply thing of things with bond yield s? a liit little bit lighter issua. >> i don't remember a time when treasury issuance, you know, basically was more important than what the fed may or may not say. you remember in august with that announcement, it seriously moved the market, coming off the fitch downgrade. and then the surprise on the coupons on the long end of the treasury market. and then, again, coming this morning a little bit lighter.

. ♪ the powell pushback. the central banker keeps rate hikes on the table.s for the long term with 30-your auction gone wrong. we begin with the big issue, the market versus the fed. >> listen to what the fed says. >> the powell comments. >> a slightly more amped a version of what he's been saying for a while. >> reiterating what he said all along. >> much more hawkish speech. >> danger being good but not definitive. >> they are focused on inflation. they are focused on the jobs data. >> they are nervous about declaring victory and then having to on declare victory -- undeclare victory. >> the market continues to disbelieve this higher for longer. >> right now nobody has any idea what the bond market is going to do. >> there's a lot of underlying tensions in the bond market. >> a good chance we will see a lot of volatility. >> the federal have much less of an influence on where rates go from here. unfortunately, that does not mean the quality is going to go away -- quantitative easing is going to go away. sonali: we look at the two-year yield. at march, 376.

when you parse powell, powell has been saying the same thing over and over again.e need six months, not two months, but six months, and that's a decent moment, interval, to measure inflation david, the one thing i would say is that during this period, it's going to continue to go his way if you look at the inputs. we have cpi next week and a lot of the inputs are very positive from powell but not enough time. he doesn't want to just say, hey, listen, we'll start cutting. but the stupid curve has been wrong for so long, and all we do is listen to how right the curve has been it's been so wrong >> so, what, the lags are lagging? the lags >> yeah, the lags are lagging. >> all right >> that's good the forecast is the forecast >> as we watch members of our armed services, various members, for celebrating veterans day before remember when you used to be off veterans day? that was so right. we've given up on a lot of the days growing up where we used to commemorate. we used to talk about 11:00 is when world war i ended my grandfather was at pershing now everything's a rea

rbc economist claire fan talking moments ahead of jerome powell., after the 30-year treasury auction that did not seem to go well. you can see the tail, the big spike, that we got after the auction went out. now we are trading at 4.7710 on the 30-year as rates are up 16 basis points. jon: one of the worst. matt: for jon erlichman, i am matt miller and this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potentia

let's play sidney powell. she gets to one of the key questions of whether or not donald trump knew he lost the election. here's sidney powell. >> were you ever around when someone, anyone, told donald trump that he had lost the election? >> oh, yeah. >> who? >> pat cipollone, eric hirschman, derrick lions all thought he had lost. >> was that in the december 18th meeting? >> yes. >> what was president trump's reaction when this cadre of advisers would say he lost? >> it was like, well, they would say that, and then they would walk out, and he would go, see, this is what i deal with all the time. >> neal, that's an important revelation. >> yeah, absolutely. there's a debate about whether the prosecution in georgia and the prosecution in washington, d.c., jack smith's case, need to actually show that trump believed he had lost. you know, that's a tough legal debate, one way or the other, that i dent want to bore our viewers with. what this evidence shows is even under the higher standard that the prosecutors need

powell said she didn't have evidence, it felt he had won.nt, there are three things going on in trump's recent statements that feed on each other. the first level is dehumanizing the opponent, calling people vermin, saying that some people poison the blood of other people, as other historians have rightly pointed out, that is straight up fascist and nazi language. that dehumanization serves a certain political point. it allows you, number two, to say we have to declare a state of exception. the normal rules don't apply, something so awful is going on in our country that we have to, for example, invoke the insurrection act on day one. and that opens a general legal state of exception where you can do whatever you want to do. which by the way is also very similar to how hitler established full power in germany, and then number three, once you have this general legal state of exception, all kinds of things you can do, but the next step is some kind of physical zone of exception. mr. trump has helped this out by saying that he would like to esta

what miss powell, or who miss powell listed on that tape in terms of the individuals that told the president that he had not won, that is a very long list, which includes the former attorney general, the head of the cyber infrastructure security administration, cisa, include several officials at the oj, so the list is getting longer and longer, and it is backed up by miss powell's testimony, the number of times that the president was told that he did not win dalen, and as neal pointed out, of the skin critical point in time when all of the legal avenues to remain in office were closed, and the only thing on his mind after all of the legal options, seemingly on his mind after all of the legal options were closed was to continue to stay in office, so that is the argument i anticipate that the team will make to support the charges that she has brought. >> all right, the washington post is saying that they have seen some of all of the video of all the codefendants who have pleaded guilty, and they are reporting details from attorney kenneth chesebro's interview with prosecutors, the very same da

i want to play one side here from powell. of course, leaving rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row. 5.25% to 5.5%. what is important here is jay powell said rates were restrictive and didn't say they were sufficiently restrictive. he suggested they remain at a coin toss over the next meeting. >> we have come far enough that the risks have gotten more two-sided. you can't identify that with precision. it feels like the risks are more two-sided now. >> he said there was still a bias to hike if the economic data did not improve and if the fed was not considering rate cuts. he underscored the two-sided risk. inflation remains elevated, but tightening financial and credit conditions with financial being the new word, is likely to weigh on the economy. look at the ten-year yield. three reasons it went up. treasury funding announcement in the morning. it was not as bleak as the one in august. weak economic data at 10:00. i guess you call it an even-handed statement. the ten-year yield rally gave it a green light. no certai

by the way, my biggest worry is powell is going to bring up that argument about the 1970s again, old stop-go policy, where burns lowered the rate and all of a sudden inflation zoomed up again. we are in a totally different situation now. back in the 1970s, we were just pumping money in every single month out of the year. we have had no money growth, scott, for two years we've had no deposit growth. and this is as long as we've kept records on commercial b banks, for three years liquidity is being squeezed. we will not have any more information. core raftd rates will go down s, but that's not the battle he has to worry about in the future >> others say that's not so true and not so fast, right jamie dimon, professor, says, quote, people are overreacting to these short-term numbers, and they should stop doing that, the fed is right to pause. he's not so convinced inflation will go away as quickly as you believe. >> as i said, there will still be elements of core inflation, but if he waits to those elements of core inflation go to 2%, i think we could have a recession. i'd rather take t