powell: yes.t of the inflation was and we saw it in 2023 problems d and when the labor supply shot unwind as well. it came down quickly and it's also down to tight monetary policies playing a role as well. senator brown: which leads me to the plea with you to speak out about inflation and the contribution of corporate profits and greed to inflation. >> the fact of the matter is that so often, if in fact. i don't know how they afford a downpayment for a home and take into consideration and looking at their financialu future and fixing and repairing. happens for every homeowner in theountry. i think the issue is far more my first question s between the challenges of illegalyv immigration. it seems like every single week there is a story of another city under water attempting to feed and houseil immigrants and american taxpayers are footing that bill. just recently in denver we saw city workers having their hours zeroed out so that the city could allocate resources for illegal immigrants. in san fran

powell: will i commit to that. let me look into that, i do not want to make a commitment yet but we will look at the issue. >> you feel it's important we do have an understanding of the effect. small business is the backbone. if the business is the backbone. >> i do agree. >> the chairman asked you for your thoughts on withdrawing or repurposing. have you specifically discussed withdrawing the proposal with michael barr or the other governors? >> i do not want to get into our internal doings, but i understand it is a live option. we are not at this stage to have that discussion yet because we do not has -- we have to decide what changes we think are appropriate. then the question will be -- when we get to that point, if a proposal is the right thing to do, we will not hesitate at all. >> in the current environment that we have and politics, there is not a lot that you find bipartisan agreement on, but you could find some agreement in withdrawing that proposal. can you explain the importance of consensus? are you co

chair powell: maybe. we can talk about this more, i don't want to make a specific commitment without talking to the people who are carefully in touch with us. >> senator federman from pennsylvania is recognized. if senator warnock says down he can go next. you are also generous with each other. senator fetterman is struck eyes. -- recognize. all right, senator warnock. >> thank you very much mr. chairman. interest rates are high in the interest being paid to depositors, ordinary working families, working people with bank accounts, not a lot of money and wall street accounts. chairman powell i am concerned that when banks don't increase the interest rates on accounts, is not good for the economy? are you concerned that banks under supervision are doing this? chair powell: not paying sufficient? of course they have the option of putting their money and money market funds and banks compete with each other but i'll be happy to look into that. >> it is worth taking a look at. they don't have some of the sophis

powell. we appreciate your work. difficult situation. but i think you have done a really good job. thank you for that. look, success at the fed mandate for strong employment and stable prices is critical for smallsin. for farmers, ranchers, for montana families. you fall all the metrics. from perspective, where is the economy at? now and where is it going? chair powell healthy, sustainable pace. that's the one thing. second thing, the labor market is very strong and quite tights. 3% -- 3.7% unemployment for the last 24 months. that's the longest period since 50 years. third is inflation. inflation was too high. it's come down sharply since the beginning of last year. the head line number has come down from the 5 down to 2.4. the core number is at 2.8. i think it was atear ago. these are big declines. we are in a very different place. a healthy place. we are going to use our tools to keep that strong economy, keep e we continue to make progress on inflation. senator tester: one of the areas wh

powell: i do. >> given you believe that and the fact the proposal dramatically increases capital requirements on banks, would a reproposal that implemented basel three in a capital neutral way, could it do so without jeopardizing financial stability? chr. powell: hypothetically yes. >> according to latham and watkins, 97% of the letters either opposed called for a reproposal or expressed substantial concerns about the endgame proposal and those negative comments came from across the ideological spectrum from various interests. i would ask the chair to include that report into the record. without objection i would ask national >> without objection. >> did you see that report? chr. powell: i did. >> does that concern you that 97% of the comments were negative. >> we did not do our own count so i cannot make an assessment. i would say it is unlike anything i've seen. >> the comment period ended on the same day of the feds collection which is an odd process since the data should've been collected far e

chair powell: not at all.o think about the balance sheet is we want to be highly transparent and predictable. it is not the main story about monetary policy. the main story is interest rates. what happens is when we get into a very difficult situation like the pandemic of the global financial crisis, we buy treasuries to lower interest rates and support the economy. when we are left with a bigger balance sheet that we start -- when the time is right let it run off and shrink back to where it needs to be. we would slow the pace, and the reason is it is moving down quickly. we have decrease the size of the securities portfolio by $1.5 trillion, so we would say that we would slow the pace, and what we are trying to do there is try to actually get further without being disruptive. at last tightening cycle for the sheet ended when we suddenly found ourselves that we had gone too far, and it was very disruptive to markets, and we had to buy treasuries to create more reserves in the economy, so we tried to learn from

chair powell: sure.l estate right now, particularly in the troubled areas. it's not a question of prices still falling, it's a question you don't have the price discovery. you just have to assume the prices are very low and have come down a lot. on commercial real estate, we have a secular change in people working from home. this is one big part of it. that means that ■4 many cities the downtown office district is very underpopulated, there are empty buildings in many manger and minor cities. it means that all of the retail that was there to service the thousands and thousands of people who work in those buildings, they are under pressure, too. banks will have made loans to many of those buildings. this we have known for some years. what do we do? we have identified the banks that have high commercial real estate concentrations, particularly office and retail. and other one that is have been affected. went dialogue with them around do you have your arms around this problem?og do you have enough capital?

chair powell: thank you. sen. menendez: i agree with my friend the ranking member that when you tell a story, you should tell the whole story. mr. chairman, are you aware of the "washington post" february 22 article that says the economy is roaring and immigration is a key reason? chair powell: i do not recall that but i would have read it. sen. menendez: "immigration has propelled the u.s. job market further than anyone has expected, helping cement the country's economic rebound from the pandemic as the most robust in the world. it goes on to say, economists and labor experts say that this surge was ultimately key to solving unprecedented gaps in the economy that threatened the country's ability to recover from prolonged shutdowns. would you take issue with those statements? chair powell: there are a lot of adjectives and adverbs that you would not see in bed world -- fed world. the story i think is broadly this. it is that there was a very significant increase in the size of the workforce last year. and it was h

chairman powell: i guess i would put it this way.e've had for january and february, i think very broadly thatug that we were right to wait until we are more confident. i didn't hear anyone dismissing it as not information that we should look right now. generally speaking it does going the direction of saying yes, it's appropriate for us to be careful as we approach this question. ze>> i wanted to ask about central-bank digital currency stuff. we've been hearing a lot from republicans in congress about what the fed is or isn't doing . no you have said to congress that you are going to wait for approval before the fed does anythilabut folks like house may whip tom emmer have said that the fed is either actively researching or hiring personnel to study t implications of a cbc. can you give us any clarity on what the fed is doing right now on a digital dollar? i think we've been pretty transparent on this, but i will try harder. we are not -- we haven't proposed or come to a conclusion that we should propose or anything like that that cg

chairman powell: so that is what 5?, and we are not discussing all the many other balance sheet issues. we will discuss those in due course, but what we are really is slowing the pace of runoff. there isn't much runoff among nbs right now but there is in treasuries. i don't want to give you specific number because we haven't made an agreement or decision, but that is the idea. 's what we are looking at, and in terms of the timing, i said fairly soon. wouldn't want to try to be more specific than that, but you get this is in our long-run plans that we may actually be able to get to a lower level because we would avoid the kind of frictions that can happen. liquidity is not evenly distributed in the system, and there can be times when in the aggregate, reserves are ample or even abundant. not in every part, and those parts where they are not ample, there can be stressed. you to prematurely stop the process to avoid the stress and then it would be very hard to restart. so something like that happened in 19 perhaps. so that

powell: chr. powell: chr. powell: we haven't made that decision yet. that's a question we've been asking ourselves is what would be the implication for other rules? >> is the fed considering changes to the requirement for regional banks to issue long-term debt. right now it stated to be issued at 6% of risk weighted assets. in an abundance of caution in an abundance of caution case there needs to be a resolution. but as i understand it it's being required at the holding company level and down into the bank level and that seems redundant to me. would you consider changing that in your discussions? chr. powell: the comment periods ended up a little while back and so once again we are in the process of evaluating the comments. there will be a thoughtful deliberative process around that. we welcome comments on these kind of things they have very important implications for the banks affected. we want to make sure we understand the effects correctly so we can evaluate what the final rule should look like. >> turning to the monetary policy outlook as the chai

we have testimony from jay powell.e have been unpacking that for you, two days of testimony kicks off today at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. the bloomberg analysis is the expectation that powell will reiterate that patience around cuts. maybe he will remind investors and the market that the most likely next move is a cut rather than a hike. the resilience of the u.s. economy is something he is expected to articulate. jay powell with the testimony and potential market reaction to that, as of course, we came out of the gates at the front end of the year with expectations for as many as seven cuts, that has been pared back to three right now. job openings will build out the picture on the labor market in the united states. coming up, we will speak to the dhl group ceo to discuss the logistics company's earnings. some details around the shareholder buyback as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back now. though u.k. chancellor is expected to cut two percentage points from the payroll tax national insurance in his spring budge

jonathan: you have had time to digest this comments from chairman fed powell -- fed chairman powell.ctly. is there really a takeaway? adp is that tree that falls in the forest, that nobody hears. there is some interesting stuff to talk about. i think powell went right down the middle. there was no reason to break new ground. i would love to make this an engaging and riproaring conversation. but we would have to stretch. lisa: this is interesting, end and of itself. i remember when the fed was everything and that was all people tracked. it drove all economic thought. have we moved beyond that? it did not matter in terms of restrictiveness and it is not going to matter if they cut by 25 to 50 basis points. >> i think this is an important idea, lisa. it is something that we have been kicking around. if i think about new-home sales, they are hanging in there. they are hanging in there for an important reason. they are doing these pay downs. if you speak to our homebuilding team, but they would tell you is, it seems like there is some magical number around 6%. if you offer that to a poten

chairman powell reassured us of that. to watch out for is the timing and size of the rate cuts. one of the things the market underestimated is the interest rates may level off with the pro pr productivity is at a higher rate. >> while you talk about productivity, you sent us a chart. it compare s. pc revolution and the dot-com bubble. you see the pc revolution on the left and the a.i. on the right. what is the most important part of the comparicomparison? >> we should realize the pc revolution did is boost profits in the 1990s. it was a transitory boost that lasted a decade. what we see now in the post-covid recovery is profits shot up. better technology has allowed businesses to reorganize in a more efficient way. if a.i. kicks in and boosts this further, we will see a win-win situation where corporate profits be higher going forward, but also real wages will be higher. labor productivity is higher. these are things we can see in the next year or three years horizon. the thing to kill it is geopolitical risk to cause inf

jerome powell and janet yellen haveki)z no way out.hey're going to raise interest on our debt which will increase faster. if they going to give people moe money, more jobs and increase inflation that way through spending. what is your guest comment on that? guest: that's right, think jerome powell will make decisions about interest rates withoutsarily concerned about how that affects the debt. the higher rates that we have seen already in the fed has said they t■7hi■■nk ty are done hikig rates, they are at the peak of their interest rates for now. that has increased interest cost to the government. challenge but chair powell has made clear as most fed chair is due that theydecise up to elected officials and not them. chair powell has said he thinks the deficit is not sustainable and is something the government, congress and the white house should deal with. host: the unemployment rate in february was 3.9%. it increase from 3.7% in january. what was that a sign of? guest: it's a sign of potentially some people worry about some so-called

jeremy, we saw the markets finish higher after the jay powell testimony. what does that indicate to you about traders' confidence in the cuts? >> we were saying the market was getting excited and started pricing in six-to-seven wcuts. if the fed doesn't price in the cuts, we will have a tough time of getting gains in the market. we said it wasn't about the cuts, but willingness to cut if there is weakness. we were worried to say inflation is the top concern. we cannot say. he showed the flexibility. we think inflation is lower than reality with the housing data and real-time housing is down 1%. you get updates on that. we think he should be cutting, but i think the data is coming in in a way to allow them to start cutting in it june. >> jeremy, you have come with alternative data on inflation in previous times. sophie, over to you. do you agree with jeremy's take this gave the confidence the cuts are coming and is this enough to keep the rally going? >> there's no doubt, really, that cuts are going to be coming through. i personal thinly think there i disc

sort out what powell is saying. how do you see it? charles: it has been telegraphed. i wrote a column, he's been telegraphing rate coverage and it won't be march and it will be june. he's telegraphing it will be 24 basis points. that's what the markets are saying. confirmed his telegraph that we reported on the show. neil: things are really far pushed off. charles: i told people, they told me june, 25 basis points, that's the likely scenario unless something wild happens with inflation if it starts popping up. the last cpi print was three. adam: as long as you are trending. charles: he thinks he will get it by june one thing about powell, whatever he telegraphs he does. you notice that you don't have to think too hard with him. neil: i was taking a look, put this great chart to gather, what has been happening. most times from when he was yapping this year and last last year or after and fomc meeting or talks on congress, invariably markets, what is it, some called it a jerome powell put. does he try, he looks at the

himself >> i would say chair powell. i would agree there's more reiteration than anything else, and he just didn't send the signal as being somebody who was trying to gather up excuses to do anything but follow the plan, which is as soon as you get pretty consistent further affirmation of where inflation is headed and it's benign, he will not be alarmist about the january date, about gasoline prices ticking up, then we can sort of go in that assumption that the next move is down this is a very long pause for the fed. you have to keep that in mind. normally in other cycles they've tended to follow the last hike with a cut within several months so if you get to june, it's going to be time and i think the bond market has seized upon any hint of deceleration in the economy to have those yields come down. they're following global yields. so it's a benign setup, i think, for stocks in that regard. that said, another one of these one-day shakeouts. we've had one every month going back to late last year, and it doesn't have legs

joseph, we went from pivot powell in october, cautious powell, march 6th.sed are you with the amount of confidence the fed chair exuded yesterday? >> i am surprised. as kelly mentioned it looks like immaculate soft landing. gdp revised up, inflation not really changed and unemployment revised even more benign so he is very much betting everything on a soft landing and definitely not any paul volcker. i thought the conference was as we all know over the past two months inflation has been surprising to the upside. when asked about that chair powell was basically, yeah, january, that's just seasonal stuff. charles: yeah. >> february, you know, that is actually not so bad you know. so he seems to be downplaying and looking through what looks like inflation stablizing at 3 and 4%. and not just that so, we have financial conditions which i think everyone thinks are quite loose. look at equity markets going to the moon. looks like dog with hat a meme coin will show up on the las vegas sphere. clearly a lot of speculation in the markets. when asked about that, actu

jay powell will be giving testimony. u.k.nesday and on thursday an update to the forecast. yields up, selling pressure for treasuries. up a 10th of a percent on the euro. bitcoin crossed above 64,000. currently flat and we will get more details because oil steadied after opec-plus extended production cuts. let's bring in bloomberg energy reporter. how is the market reacting to the extension. what will the reaction look like? >> terry reaction is they are not seeing prices search. if this were an opec-plus cut, maybe we get more price reaction but there is a view in the market that there is still froth in the market, excess supply. demand is not able to eat up the oil being produced so a continuation of cuts was expected. this provides a floor on prices, it's not a bearish situation and this is not happened yet. that leads to a situation where prices could stabilize depending on other parts of the market. tom: putting a floor on the market. what is the focus for the oil market beyond this announcement? >> tension in the middle

jerome powell and janet yellen have no way out. if they raise interest rates they're going to raise interest on our debt and it will increase even faster. if a lower interest rates it's going to get people more money more jobs and increase inflation that way i through spending. what is your comment on that? >> guest: s right. i mean, i think jerome powell is going make decisions about interest rates without an essentially concerned about how that affects the debt but that's right. the higher rates we havee seen already, i mean the fed said they think they he done rates. there at thepe peak of their interest rates for now. that is increased interest cost of the government. there's a question that's happen. that is a challenge but chair powell has made clear as most fedd chairs do, they think the spendingnd taxing decision on the government of two elected officials and not them. although chair powell said he thinkst the deficit is not sustainable and it's something the government, congress and the white house should deal with. >> hos

that seems to me to make powell's job harder. you've been talking about the jobs layoffs and talk about wages this is from your most recent report. this speaks for itself the directional changes. when does this influence fed decisioning making. >> wages influence fed decision making more than any or the form of inflation. this up here, this up here people making hourly wages were commanding whatever they wanted. charles: the great resignation. right. >> great resignation, but lowest pate workers were getting biggest wage gains. that slipped under. same with atlanta fed wage tracker. charles: these are forward looking. >> exactly. charles: real time when we saw last weeks. >> these are individuals losing their jobs. hey i worked for google. i got nine months of severance, good for me. all the thousands of stores closing, 60 to 90 days of severance. not very much so the fed's going to feel their pain much more quickly. that is going to force this cut. charles: all right. a lot of stuff here. do me a favor. want you to stay, q&a, as

here is chairman powell. >> good afternoon.eagues and i remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. the economy has made considerable progress toward our objectives. inflation has eased substantially, while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. but, inflation is still too high. ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. we are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal, restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustainably strong labor market that benefits all. today, the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. our restrictive stance on monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. as the labor market tightness has eased, and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. i will hav

chairman powell said if all goes _ uncertain. chairman powell said if all goes as — uncertain.powell said if all goes as expected - uncertain. chairman powell said if all goes as expected this - if all goes as expected this year rate cuts will be appropriate. and the fed will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting. what does this mean for asian economies? peter, as we'vejust heard a cautious approach by jerome powell the markets have reacted positively to that. what does that mean for us here in asia? ~ , ., in asia? absolutely for the buildin: in asia? absolutely for the building audit _ in asia? absolutely for the building audit their - in asia? absolutely for the building audit their record | building audit their record close out on the australian market is up and positive tone across equity markets as a king over trading session and probably into tomorrow there will be a little bit of a to the upside is far as turn. what is this made _ the upside is far as turn. what is this made for _ the upside is far as turn. what is this made for asian - is this made for asian ec

welcome back, chair powell. while i am pleased the progress the administration of made to tackle inflation, we are not out of the woods yet. in fact, even though her mother my republican colleagues refuse to acknowledge this fact, housing is still the number one driver of inflation. based on the latest data, housing costs continue to make up nearly 70% of overall price increases, outpacing modest wage gains. we address the underlying housing supply shortage and americans will continue to pay an increasing share of their income on housing. the affordability prices will worsen, and inflation will remain too high. with that said, it's hard to understand why republicans feign concern about the economy. they are unwilling to address the key driver of an elation -- s of only put forward legislation that makes things worse for millions of americans, including moving legislation to slash funding for federal housing programs, including in rural america. th abysmal record of housing is par for the course for republicans.

with the markets, and we will see powell speaking in the next two days. >> we will see right when powell finishes on the hill. at halftime, we will wrap it up and see what the market does. brynne, we will see you, then. anastasia amoroso, thanks for being here. let's move it to christina for the biggest names in closing. >> amer sports failed to impress investors. a maker of wilson tennis rackets said that its loss is actually strengthened in the fourth quarter, driven by stronger sales in china, but specifically ball and racket sales declined year-over-year. last time, the company was dealing with supply shortage and over ordered equipment, this year they are trying to get inventory levels in check, stock is done 4 1/2%. >>> shares of aero environment are moving in the opposite direction after the defense contractor boosted its guidance. the company makes drones and ground vehicles. the ceo said they have a strong backlog in 2025. we will get more on that story later when the air environment ceo joins "closing bell overtime" tonight. >> christina, thank you very much. back to you in a b

that is so markets needed to hear from powell. look, there has been concern among traders after the hot january cpi print whether we could return to rate hikes again. i think you did a good enough job betting away some of those concerns. it is all about timing for when the first cut will come. i do not think we got any additional insight into when the timing for that is, but i think especially ahead of the fomc meeting in march he said what we have been hearing from other fed policymakers in recent weeks. there is something that is going to come this year, still a wait and see approach as to when the timing will land. tom: excellent breakdown from jill disis on monetary policy expectations and potential changes to the rules for the banking sector. now to the ecb, the latest policy decision coming out today. interest rates expected to be held at 4%. it investors will be looking for hints for when the first cut will be from the ecb. our correspondent is that the ecb headquarters in frankfurt. it would be watching out for in terms of

powell is right. but remember, on broadway, in is no such thing as a one act, play, we'll talk about this, bringing in our experts, steve moore committee t to unleash prosperity, and art laffer, former reagan economist. and art, i think that powell got it right today, it is a rorschach test, you read into it what you want. broadway shows have many actions not just one. but the fact is all of these price levels indicators goring up and i think that the fed is right, at least for the moment. why should they cut rates? what do you think? >> i don't think they should cut rates. and excuse me, i have a cold. you know what bothirded bothered me about his report he promises three cuts in future this year, this is inappropriate, these numbers are not good for inflation, looking at dollar versus bitcoin and gold it has been falling, and there is no real boom in this economy. that is where i am. larry: good, steve moore, i don't think that they should cut rates this year. inflation has not come down to 2%. and

. >> hi, chair powell. jean young with him and i market news. i wanted to ask about the balance sheet. you said that starting the taper sooner could get you to a smaller balance sheet size. does that mean you do not have to make a decision on when to end qt at this point and will you be setting up the process for deciding that sooner or will you wait until we are closed tonight? >> it's sort of ironic that the going slower, you can get further but that is the idea. the idea is that with a smoother transition, you want to live this you will run much less risk of liquidity problems which can grow into shocks and cause you to stop the process prematurely. so that's where it interests. and when it ends, we will be looking at money market conditions and asking what they're telling us about reserves. right now, we would characterize them as abundant. what we are aiming for is ample. a little bit less than abundant. there is not a dollar amount or a percent of gdp or anything like that where we think we have a clear understanding of that. we will be lo

that is a question for powell.ne other thing we might look for here is whether they changed the long run fed funds, the neutral rate. has that moved up, it is it now higher than it was? it has been 2.5% since jon was a little boy. jonathan: thank you sir, appreciate the update as always. falling in line with the broad consensus, expecting three fed rate cuts this year. inflation has been firmer in recent months, but we think it is still on track to fall enough by the june meeting for first cut. this has become less obvious and are inflation path for the rest of the year is now in the range were small surprises could have large consequences. good morning to you. >> jonathan: great to be here. jonathan:fantastic to catch up with you. i remember the outlook to start this year. the hard part was over, it is almost easy from here. do we still think that is the case? >> it is more of a question because of the stronger nation numbers, but i think if you look at the trends, we are still on track to get down to the 2.4% ran

market searching for direction ahead of federal reserve chairman jay powell second day two of testimonyw industrial of 29, nasdaq up 75, the market extending yesterday's rally after fed chair jay powell told the house financial services committee rate cuts are coming this year. he'll testify once again in front of the senate banking committee right now. we will preview this morning, the house dodging a partial government shutdown after $460 billion funding bill, more stress on the banking sector as the new york community bancorp a new infusion of cash set to receive a billion-dollar investment, everything you need to know about the regionals and the impact on the broader market. european markets are lower, take a look at the eurozone a mixed story with the cat caught up six attacks and accept sexiness and p100 in london is lower by 17, the european central bank making the decision at 8:15 a.m. in asia overnight markets finish mostly lower, look at the asian embassies with the bright spot in korea, the others lowers lower across the board, biden delivers the third state of the union addr

something else we have to talk about, jay powell and the hill you laughed right now. lot of your clients have called you about your expectations what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heard from fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced interest rate-sensitive the economy is and the need for rate cuts inflation is going to come in stronger i think he's going to signal the rate cuts, but the economy is closing the window for it. the bond market is going to be it's been disappointing. it's going to continue to be disappointed they may be able to squeeze off one or two, but the economy is going to close that window there's an election cycle. >> you think he's going to turn more dovish? we've heard wait and see now you say when it comes to the hill, he gets a little more dovish >> i think he 's in the wait and see. he's got a

powell is talking about evidence of being sufficiently restrictive. did that, what were you thinking? >> it is how you look at it. you can look at it. it's hard to argue flat when it's as round as it is. they're still a lot of tightness in the labor market, which he sort of admitted that the jolts -- admitted when he said that the jolts numbers are not as down as far as pre-pandemic but have come down. so they are still looking at that is ok, which gives them permission to essentially sit with rates higher for longer. >> were you surprised that jay powell did not have a clear answer to this question of the tension between higher projections for gdp, higher projections for inflation, but the same number of rate cuts this year? >> no. it's difficult. it would be difficult for anybody to square that circle. you kind of knew he would have a hard time doing that. you sort of look under the hood of what happened at the fed. it was that everybody basically moved up. but the bottom people moved up into the medium. so at this point, that does not change. the g

one thing to appreciate about jerome powell. and really worried about the market. fed chairman are not supposed to be worried about the market. be that as it may, he is. that's why the general consensus among people like fink and others, is that the june rate cut of 25-basis points is baked in. he's not going to -- because the markets will go wickedly shout if that doesn't happen. this is borrowing some mayor yak we out of the blue -- wacky inflation out of the blue numbers and rates are at 3, he's still worried about a recession because there's other numbers that show a slow down. june is baked in. obviously if inflation numbers after june look sticky and look like they're rising, all bets are off on the other two. liz: i say two. i thought larry predicted a possible two cuts. >> yeah, he did but said three so there could be three. be that as it may, the june thing is baked in and gets into the weirdness of jerome powell and again, fed chairs are not supposed to worry about the stock market and worry about other things and not

charles: we had the powell pivot, the cautious powell and now the trigger finger powell.oy, which iteration of the fed chair do we see next. what does it mean for your portfolio? we have two of the very best. we'll try to hash this out. we'll trying to figure it out. we'll be right back. ♪. okay y'all we got ten orders coming in... big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant... that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card. make more of what's yours. students... students of any age, from anywhere. using our technology to power different ways of learning. so when minds grow, opportunities follow. ♪ meet ron. ron eats, sleeps and breathes hoops, but oh how he can nail a software solution. you need

it is money of jay powell's business how many doritos are in a bag of chips.is none of joe biden's business what uber and lyft charge at 5:00 versus 6:00. you know who cares? the consumer paying it. you know who cares in the producer either getting it or not getting it. westernty's shouldn't say they were horsing around, they should say we were trying economic calculation. sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong. is ask the new coke in the 1980s. you try things. if they don't work, you move on to the something different. the state intervening hurts the process of consumers and producers working together. charles: so i thought about you last night because now there's a proposal to take the pax tax -- tax buybacks, right now it's 1%, make it 4%. corporations reward share holders through buybacks and dividends. if biden were to get reelected and we had a 4% buyback tax, could that bolster to pay out some dividends? >> it would. and i want to be very clear that i don't want hem to do it just because it would help my book and the way we go ab

jay powell on the hill. jobs report and state of the union address. for investors to consider. also the s&p hitting a new record. what do you see happening today? what is your "wex" word of the day? >> my word of the day is indifferent. lots of chatter all over cnbc and other news networks about the state of the union. i don't think the market is moving based on the state of the union address. it was a spirited address. i don't think we will see any permanent movement around the election until closer to november. >> indifferent? i wasn't expecting that one. not worried about it either way. >> i think there are other headlines on the docket for today. jobs report. we have been talking about that all morning. it is moving the market today over the state of the union. >> right now, you are looking at what moves you want to make going into march. we have guidance from jay powell. the cuts are coming, but it is not clear when. how are you moving portfolios? what are you looking at right now? what considerations do you have? >> i think we can look at what's

>> whenever powell will speak it is a chance to be market catalyst.we did not see that today a lot of the numbers they have been in line with rates, today adp jobs number was in line allowing the story of nvidia or meta earnings to dominate the market sentiment and direction. so until powell says something we don't expect he will not be the catalyst. >> benchmark provisions, today was about taking away the 9 million handle of last month. that had some influence, what about new york community bank? they say that was the story, the big input into the buying spree just before noon eastern. >> late spring of last year we had silicon valley bank which expanded to a number of other regions. >> we have breaking news, go back to the studio. >> okay thank you very much. >> getting back to the latest chapter in the regional banking crisis. to new york community bank where it is march again and a weird feeling. >> definitely a weird feeling but there has been a press release from new york community bank saying they have raised $1 billion from a strategic investo

powell said some very important things.aterial change as he stated. he also stated that spending was minimizing the level of inflationary growth and a they're going to be staying there with the interest rates until some real corrections take place. so it was relatively sobering. it was fine. it was sound. but again, i mean, there's no pro-growth initiatives coming out of the white house, outside of spending taxpayer money. maria: that's a great point. just to conclude that point, this is the comment from powell. the share of foreign born workers has been steadily increasing since the pandemic, that's helping add the labor supply needed to cool inflation. so he's connected the dots to the foreign born workers. i found that really incredible. that's what he's -- >> remarkable. yeah. but for the ag culture industry, the service industry, you know, it adds into the equation. however, we need to secure the border and then allow some legality when it comes to work visas. maria: understood. congressman, good to see you. thank you

powell. investors are baffled by all of this commentary.fter today's performance stocks went up 400 points or so so somebody's happy out there. now are they happen because the fed leaned against the win and suggested no easier money? that mr. powell is going to hold the line with his 2% inflation target? or that the fed is not going to start slashing rates in order to juice the economy, to reelect joe biden? i don't know what the reason is. others might say the fed economic projections still show three interest rate cuts this year, even though these economic projections are nearly always wrong. i think the best thing powell said he will keep his 2% inflation target and not raise it to 3% and in fact the fed's not there yet. here's some price level indicators that we all should keep an eye on including the fed. the gold price since october up 20%. a key commodity index since november up 12%. brent crude oil, 86 bucks. it is now up 19% since mid-december. gasoline at the pump here in the usa, that has climbed 12% back to $3.52. and treasury m

powell. honor to have you before us today i always enjoy hearing your commentary as you know, recession and inflation, these are buzzwords and they're used in some circumstances to cast a dim light on perhaps the fed and others who are working to end some of these troubling circumstances we're dealing with are you now at a point where you believe that there will not be a recession? there was much talk about recession and many people worried that we would find ourselves having to negotiate our way out of a recession what is your position currently on a recession >> so u.s. growth last year was in excess of 3%. what we're seeing so far this year is continued solid growth my expectation and that of other forecasters and of my colleagues is that we'll see continued growth at a solid pace i will say, so there's no evidence -- no reason to think that the u.s. economy is in or in some kind of short term risk of falling into recession. having said that, though, there's always, you know, a possibility

powell was not. i don't think the story really changed for powell as much as it has for waller.h monitoring for investors. charles: so if there was a movie version of this, paul newman would play jerome powell, essentially, "cool hand luke" in all of this. you pointed out some positive themes that are working. i want you to talk to the audience about them. i want to remind folks, newell, you've been spot on. calling well the economy for last couple years. central bank easing, global inflation easing, these are positive tailwinds, right? >> well absolutely, charles, thank you. i mean i think for investors the important thing is, we're talking about at the end of the day, right we're talking about how much is the fed going to cut and how much is the economy going to grow. fundamentally that's a fairly good backdrop for risk appetite, right? you mentioned global activity. if you look at manufacturing, purchasing manager surveys from around the world they're generally moving up and to the right. business confidence is on the mend. you mentioned recession risks, one of the things tha

jay powell.o, this guy is the worst. so the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. take a look at this. these are professional newsletter writers. this is the bullishness. this is rocketing high. at a level typically associated with the market coming down. these are the experts. they get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. they're extremely bullish. retail sentiment investors, 51% bullish, that is extraordinarily high. i will say this, i know the wall street loves to the diss the retail investors they have been spot on last couple years more so than the pros. everyone on the same page. that kind of makes us a little bit nervous. i want to say one thing about the retail investor and i want you to pay attention to this. we always wonder where is the buying going to come from? three years ago, 3 trillion-dollars in margin this is how much money they borrow to buy more stock. the more they borrow at some point you

that's followed by jay powell's chair conference at 2:30. >>> ahead of that decision and the powell pressce, let's get a quick check on futures. futures have been under a bit of pressure. dow would open 50 points lower and also the s&p and nasdaq. joining me now is mimi dodd. >> thanks for having me. >> give me a sense. how do you see today shaping up, of course, with the big news later today, the rate decision out today. >> yeah, i would expect the statement to be very much in line with some of the recent commentary of the fed and will probably -- we are going to get the new summary of economic projections. i'd expect those to be more of a mark-to-market and continue to pencil in this calendar year, but i would pay more attention to the conference. >> your w.e.x. word of the day is fed. that makes sense to anybody watching right now. i want to get back to the fed decision and the path forward. you say it's very binary. it's kind of nuanced. but you say it's a very binary situation right now. >> that's right. we're looking to play for a range of outcomes. we've seen more in terms of stick