they don't do summer precipitation right, in fact they don't do precipitation at all. a lot of this - i hope it brings down to something reasonable. dave is working with colorado springs utilities and others including at least one here in california the short answer is absolute . but are they great? no. but we have to start using them. >> we typically rely on models we get to create in terms of what we think demand and that drives what we build and design things. we have taken into perspective climate change but it's a different challenge in the white water side of the business that have to rely on councils and governments because of population growth and often times their relying on funds that come through the federal funds and their held and bound to using certain models and criteria. so it's getting very complicated when you go into regional planning to flood control to water and all the sets and different for legal reasons as apposed scientific. >> the problem is not the models. there are plenty of models. we have lots of tools. the problem i would argue, is not ev

up -- for precipitation changes. then high and changes on the negative side to create a set of scenarios. this ends up being 18 different parings of temperature and precipitation change. what that will do is bound for us the range of potential effects that we will see if any of those scenarios for to come true. on the worst and, you have a 5.4 degree temperature increase which is about 9 degrees fahrenheit. this is pretty significant. this is the top and temperature change which was reported in 2007. we will see if that changes in the future. at the high-end, we factored in a decrease in precipitation of 15%. at the end of the day, we will get that worst-case scenario and a best case scenario, with 0.6 degrees celsius and an increase of 2%. it will tell us where we need to worry. what do we need to worry about if things come true in terms of the inflow? this is not a water supply analysis, however. to get to water supply, you have to take the next step down, take the inflow, then we need to model our local water syst

precipitation is done in the same fashion down here. my coleague mike calls these spaghetti diagrams for obvious reasons. this is sort of the sly mate studies and you see this but you don't see the consensus too much in this or these solutions but what is deceiving is your e ye, is drawn to the out liars going up and there's this number of a simulations that have gone down a little bit by ten percent or so. if you twisted my arm and said what's more likely for california, wetter or dryer in the future. first of all i would say our precipitation is characterized to a large extent by variability like we've always seen. we've become accustomed to really wet periods. 1978 through 1986. and try periods. 1994 and sometimes we actually get a normal year but seems like that does not happen too often. but in these model runs there's again this subtle tendency for a little dryer so i would not be to likely to call for more wet because not too many models call for that. this is why i think there's some credibility about this. this is a little hard

he shows the ones that have lost and gained in the precipitation as snow. as you can see, the large majority - again about 75 percent of these weather stations are receiving more rain and less snow over this period. so, we are see inging rivers flowing earlier. the melting season is coming earlier and we're seeing storms delivering more rain and less snow. the storms themselves are warmer not just the interstorm periods that are warmer. so the climate of our generations is warmer than our moms and dads and our grandparents. next one. so, let's consider what the climate models have to say about all of this. next one. first of all, just to remind you about the greenhouse effect. here we have two mra net bodies. the moon and the earth. the moon does not have an atmosphere so it has no trappings of gases like methane and co2, and so forth which are the reason global warming is happening. the moon has an average temperature that's about 33 celsius less than earths on average. so the greenhouse effect is a natural phenomena. the greenhouse effect your used to hea

we are picking up a little lite precipitation. but the bottom line is, the showers will be pushing in and tennessee the on the low side. the departure of yesterday's system. today we saw rain from the unsettled air mass. this nebs area of low pressure will produce moderate to heavy rain. but if our pinpoint forecast is correct and it has been for weeks now, look at the backside of the front, which leads me to believe the heaviest precipitation will happen in the overnights. the portion of the day for the mid-morning hours. we will see anywhere from 3/4 to 2 inches of rain. the heaviest rain to the north and around the santa cruz mountains. tomorrow's temperatures into the 50s. up to 60 degrees in oakland and alameda. sunday, a lingering shower early, otherwise portly cloudy. wean through friday. good guys custom car show. a chance for showers, but it's fun. don't go awe we'll be back after this. ,,,,,,,, >>> to support disaster relief around the world, visit redcross.org. cbs cares. ,,,,,,,,,,,, weekend. it's expected to be a best

my sense is science is improving and you mentioned the business about regional change in precipitation and the tendency to get dryer moving north and the models also showing tendency for wetter winters and dryer summers and whether the model shows heatwaves and that's interesting not just as temperatures being higher but more sustained and more precipitation, and planning knowing how to apply these things could be very useful but i wanted to comment on that. >> yeah, thanks joel. well, precipitation is still roblematic but there's this >> there's a tendency for more wetness in tropical climates. it's kind of if you shift the whole frequency distribution of temperature to the warm side and naturally the tail shifts as well and you get a propensity of more extremes. because the temperature impacts snow,packs you propose more run off in certain mountain settings. there's a little evidence of increase in heavier precipitation and that's showing up in some observations across the united states and i think you'll see this in the,ip sfpuc, but it's not real real strong. i would say that's kin

in the precipitation. decreases in snow back of 50 percent and decrease to inflow and decreases in yield. that all assumes a static systems and our operators don't change dealing with flood pockets or rule curves so that's impact of operating the system like we have historically and that's impact on our system. the issue is from today on we can't operate the system the way we used to so we have to start changing and coming one new models on how to do it. >> this i have found this a phenomenal chart. if you start that upper left and go down line by line on this chart, it shows you the official demand forecast for the seattle city water supply system. we have never - at least to date - underforecasted the demand. we always over forecast. i think if you have not looked at your official forecast it gives you a reality historically and what the demands really look like. i think also, if you have not look and i'm assuming most have, this is what our water consumption looks like verses our population increases. w

you also see that with precipitation. this map shows you how much rain is expected to fall in an average year. over in the western deserts in yuma the average rainfall is 3 inches a year. here on mt. gram, it's over 36 inches a year, much of that falling as snow in the winter. a big difference in elevation and diverse climate. that translates into a very incredible array of ecosystems and has habitat. this is a simplification of the ecosystems we have in the southwest, and i've had to collapse a number of categories because there are so many of them in order to make it more legible. there's four deserts here. in the higher eel visions which are shaded in green here, we have pine forests, and lower down is woodlands. because we have such a tremendous diversity of habitats, not surprisingly, there's the big diversity of species. the southwest is a hot spot for diversity. so this graphic shows you what a typical mountain in southern arizona right around here looks like, and on the mountains you see the diversity in habitat e

now, all of that precipitation then heads toward the eastern third of the country. we've already had reports -- numerous reports of minor flooding in the region along the mississippi valley and also in the northeast due to the recent rainfall and the snow mount. as that precipitation heads to the eastern third of the country that's going to be raising the flooding risks here as well. we've got 15 in atlanta today. 28 in miami. 21 in houston. and 25 in los angeles today. now, we head in to europe where we starting to see that frontal system beginning to slide in to central europe today. so that will be bringing rain to parts of germany. looking wet and windy across the british isles today and again for norway. we will be contending with heavy, blowing snow. winds will remain pretty strong across much of skand knave ya as well. but across continental europe for the most part it will stay dry. the southwestern corner, looking at the stagnant low pressure center, the center is off shore but it will be triggering showers and strong thunderstorms in isolated areas. not mu

we have more moderate precipitation across the peninsula and this is why s.f.o. from 38 minutes to 2 hours and 32 minutes on some departures. the rain filling into the santa clara valley. more rain. now east of the bay you too are starting to see pockets of moderate rain spreading from san leandro all the way up to i 80 across berkeley and into richmond. the bottom line, everybody is wet this evening and winds starting to increase out of the southeast 20 to 30 miles per hour overnight. if you're out and about obviously you do need that umbrella. this is what this latest storm looks like. you have a flash flood warning as a result. midnight through tomorrow afternoon for the mountain areas. overnight tonight into the 40s and 50s with the rain tomorrow morning with the bulk of the rain during the morning hours then it will begin to taper off to scattered showers with the threat of a thunderstorm containing small hail. this is how we are playing out this particular thunderstorm for tonight. again, rain all the way through the morning commute. pockets of moderate rai

precipitation to be noted around the san rafael area. pockets of yellow, some of those pockets contained some very heavy rainfall. we see a new batch of energy developing offshore pushing into the middleton area and also heading towards hillsburg. a lot of rain today makes our numbers stack up like this. a percentage of normal numbers. anywhere from 100% in san jose to 129% in santa rosa. this is all largely responsible for today's hefty totals. over 2 inches in san rafael. i question that number in livermore but that's the number the airport gave us. over three quarters of an inch of rain today in 24 hours in san jose. in the 30s and 40s for overnight lows. tomorrow we will have spotty showers because we have yet another trough with the passage of this low pressure, unsettled air mass as well and that will continue to produce some scattered light rain showers. now, in is how our pinpoint forecast is playing it out. there is your morning commute. we will have some breaks and spotty pink is the light snow that will fall around the mt.

north bay is filling in nicely now with plenty of precipitation from petaluma all the way towards the golden gate bridge. behind me here is where you see those pockets of yellow more moderate rain that will move on shore. this is an area of low pressure that is banking up against california. it will spread another inch to two inches of rain and that coupled up with the saturated soil, that's why we have a flash flood watch in effect for all of or northern mountains. tonight 40s, 50s, tomorrow rain for the commute. this winds associated with this area of low pressure out of the southeast 30-mile-per-hour gusts. right on its heels another strong system for your thursday, friday. so this is how we're playing out your pinpoint forecast for tonight. overnight, blustery, lots of rain, windy conditions, again those winds will continue to ramp up. tomorrow morning we continue to see rain because there is a

the good news is that it is not going to be too much precipitation.no flooding expected but will keep you posted. >> isabel: daylight savings time. 2:00 p.m., sunday morning officially. replace your batteries and the smoke detectors. in california, key lawmakers are on standby in sacramento. with gov. jerry brown is trying to work out a compromise a few developments after weeks of negotiations. to reform public pensions and a cap on spending. lawmakers will work to out to this weekend. still to come, and another look at our weather. the aftermath of the japanese earthquake and the tsunami. (music) >> i am heartbroken with this tragedy. when you see what is happening in japan you are reminded for all of our differences, culture, language, religion, it ultimately humidity is one. >> isabel: it was president obama-humanity--as one. and you can see all of that behind him. pledging assistance to this catastrophic disaster. relief efforts are already on a the way with urban search and rescue teams. a new poll shows that fewer americans approve of congress i

a whole lot more precipitation is out there over the ocean. we'll have more on that later. >> thank you. >>> a dramatic end to a high- speed chase in the east bay today. a chp officer is recovering tonight after he crashed his cruiser into a hayward home while chasing a driver that police say was speeded speeding. it happened this morning at the intersection of cottage park and whitman. simon perez reports the chase reached speeds of about 100 miles per hour. simon. >> reporter: elizabeth, good grief! what a wreck. we're right here in the yard where it happened. let's show you some of the damage here. you can look at that tree just got snapped right off after the chp car hit it. look at the damage to the porch. thank goodness no one was there. you can see evidence of the damage and how injured the chp was. >> it was hard because how can you imagine the house like an earthquake -- i felt it shake the house. >> reporter: what ended here in hayward began earlier in san leandro. according to chp, a man who was speeding tried to get away heading ea

we are picking up light precipitation around the santa clara valley. but the north bay is still in the thick of action with plenty of scattered showers. more rain on the way. we're tracking that, as well. and allen and elizabeth, that's later on in this newscast. >> see you in a few minutes. >>> stepped up security on the berkeley high school campus this week. that's after three students brought guns to school yesterday. one of those weapons actually went off. it was in this portable restroom. the bullet went through the wall. now, luckily, nobody was hit. but students say of course this is very frightening. >> i just heard one boom. >> you never know who has a gun up here until somebody says something so that's kind of scary because you don't know what anybody has in their backpack. >> police say guns were found on three students. they face felony weapons charges. they were all expelled from school. there will be some increased security on campus until at least spring break. >>> well, don't trust the tap water. new fears over contamination in tokyo. w

you also see that with precipitation. this map shows you how much rain is expected to fall in an average year. over in the western deserts in yuma the average rainfall is 3 inches a year. here on mt. gram, it's over 36 inches a year, much of that falling as snow in the winter. a big difference in elevation and diverse climate. that translates into a very incredible array of ecosystems and has habitat. this is a simplification of the ecosystems we have in the southwest, and i've had to collapse a number of categories because there are so many of them in order to make it more legible. there's four deserts here. in the higher eel visions which are shaded in green here, we have pine forests, and lower down is woodlands. because we have such a tremendous diversity of habitats, not surprisingly, there's the big diversity of species. the southwest is a hot spot for diversity. so this graphic shows you what a typical mountain in southern arizona right around here looks like, and on the mountains you see the diversity in habitat e

we have had a number of precipitation events the last couple of days. a couple of things happen in our system that you don't know about. this is getting an idea of the practice, giving us precipitation in the bay area. to give you an idea, this is the reservoir. this is where you can see the snow in very visibly. it is difficult to drive across it because of the snow. we had a tree cut down, it went down at 10:00 at night. it trick off our units. we were able to reroute the power for a couple of hours. making sure that none of the trees fall back into the yard again. it happened in the middle of the night. what happens down in the bay area, it did rain quite a bit. we had about an inch and a half or 2 inches. i wanted to show you the new system that we have, something that we call storm watch. the green dots are calls we have received, and we have no information on the ground. somebody has called and said there is flooding. the orange dots are things we have assigned another priority to. we also sort of have the traffic disruptions. that was interesting

let's show you where now the precipitation continues to fall. moderate rain fall at this time and the east bay anywhere around pittsburgh and antioch, towards the delta. also when you see the shades of yellow, that's a moderate down fall as we have been experiencing out of 680. over towards san jose, where we have moderate rain. back through the santa cruz mountains as well. we will see heavy activity throughout the weekend. we will pick which day it will happen the hardest. our storm watch continues. here is elizabeth cook. >> thanks, roberta. very chilly temperatures and a light breeze. nothing like it was earlier today where the storm really reeked havoc across the bay area. it was the last winter storm of the season and mother nature showed no mercy. >> it was like a scene from the wizard of oz. chef webber watched as a nounal cloud rushed across the water. >> it took the shed and flipped it over into the pacific street and it snapped some of the wires and they had sparks and we all ran out there and checked out pacific and calling 911. >> a

we have scattered areas of precipitation. look at the santa cruz mountains which had some of the most active weather earlier but virtually no precipitation there and now we have ran fall east of gilroy near holster. that's moving far away from the immediate area. up around berkeley right now and richmond we have a little cell of activity here. some at least moderate are the to heavy downpour involved in that little patch of precipitation. then up farther north bay around napa county, town of napa actually north of saint helena little spot of light rainfall. how about the 24 hour rainfall total over 1.4 inches at saint helena. inch and a half at santa rosa. 1.three inches in san francisc francisco. over three inches in petaluma and morris to come. as there is more to come in the 7 day forecast a little bit later. >> okay spencer thanks very much. >> we have retrieved the photo i want to show you because pretty dramatic stuff. antioc antioch. david sent this in to you report. one gust of wind tossed his patio umbrella and table

the current models are not as reliable for precipitation as they are for global. if we saw precipitation events it would change the consumption patterns considerably and the need for future supply capacity. until we understand whether or not that's a real possibility it's hard for us to make capitol investment decisions. finally, we need models that address increasing complex models and we have multiple systems and portland we have a hydro facility on both our damages and we're planning and are in the process for providing fish flows. other systems dealing with navigation and the whole, gamut of things that go on we need models to address that level of complexity. that's it for me i look forward to our on going conversation. [applause] >> good morning., jarrod said in his introduction that this panel was going to talk about how we're planing for the worst and how we're planning for disasters. it's probably one of the worst introductions i've had it's such a downer, who wants to hear it really? so as a result of that introduction jarrod i've decided to entitle my p

in thequarters, and light precipitation tonight. 2 in./three-quarters of 2 3 windy day.shower activity today strong storm pushing through tomorrow. early morning hours, early afternoon. very windy conditions will seek showers coming in on monday. industry wind, 40 m.p.h.-60 m.p.h.. + three wind. as we make our way through the work week the rain will stay with us until thursday. >> marty: that the earthquake in japan. when >> isabel: will the next one hit in the bay area? there is no way to predict earthquakes but a bay area geologist told dan kerman that a series of earthquakes will have the west coast eventually. >> the prediction of earthquakes has an open mind. >> reporter: a geologist is setting him apart from the rolls by predicting setting himself apart from everywhere else, is the prediction of earthquakes. in the next eight days, 5-6 magnitude in southern california. 4.6 and the pacific northwest and a major 7 magnitude quake in the pacific ring of fire. >> tomorrow, and for the next couple of days. a critical. hespecially, at high tide. increased probability, of

the bulk of the precipitation is moving into the overnight hours. but we have a chance of a couple of, let's say 100ths of an inch of rain in the city of san francisco. most of it north of the golden gate bridge. we could see up to a quarter of an inch. tomorrow a lingering shower is possible so call it partly cloudy. in the low 60s. 05 -- 65 will be the outside number so a tad warmer tomorrow. check out your wednesday. the warmest day of this workweek. another threat of rain returns on thursday. and then again by sunday into monday. oh, i've got to tell you about something really cool in the sky happening here in the bay area tomorrow. that's coming up next time around. >> can't wait, ro, thanks so much. >>> new protection for kids on the baseball field and more proof that way too many of us are just a little too wired. that's in two minutes. way crippled the lunchtime "know the species, know the stain." lanolin-free coat, i know it's an alpaca. walks in here, looks says "hey look, it's a llama!" cleaning the stain like he would a llama stain. time