we are joined now by jane foley, rabobank head of fx strategy. if this situation escalates, what does it mean for foreign exchange markets? jane: effectively, it is going to be the yen, the currency of g political risk -- of geopolitical risk. the comments we just heard that there is an understanding, that there isn't really a will to escalate this issue even further, we know that trump is a deals man, not a military hawk. that is why dollar-yen has moved this week, but we are not trading at 1.05. if there was any sniff of a real conflict, the yen would be significantly higher, and it is not. we also have the swissie. that one, of course, the central bank says it is likely to affirm tomorrow's meeting. then of course there is the dollar. the dollar is an interesting one. it is a safe haven for a lot of investors around the world. it is the dominant currency in the global payment. that currency is likely to remain firm if we saw an escalation of tensions. guy: as a result of this attack, would there be extra demand from saudi arabia for dollars? j

senior currency strategist at rabobank is still with me.ind of reading onjust how much watching. we have some kind of reading on just how much the economic toll has been on hong kong. because of these widespread protests. and it is quite significant. in terms of business confidence. in many respects, there has been a lot of anecdotal evidence and people saying the airports have been empty and people concerned about tourism and also new business. the survey, the latest survey, really showing what the business climate is doing and talking about potential recession. we can see things are quite limited. that‘s it, there was scope for good news, the market reacted well this morning —— but that being said. there were reports that the extradition bell that has been so controversial, that has been the focus of the protests over the summer, that might be formally withdrawn. so if that follows through, there is some scope for reprieve for hong kong business. absolutely, another story being closely watched as the travel plans of the duke of sussex. pr

with me is jane foley who's a senior foreign exchange strategist at rabobank. are you left—handed ?e will talk about that later. independent frontpage and brexit. i mean, that thing is, there are so many extraordinary moments in british politics that they almost become ordinary but sometimes we have to step back and realise this is a high minister whose first two votes in the commons have been lost. indeed, and that's historic itself. he doesn't have a majority. tory mps lost the whip. he certainly in a very weakened position. this is because the prime minister wanted to go foran because the prime minister wanted to go for an election. but the vote on that has already —— also been

jane foley is the head of strategy at rabobank.oing to be rebuttal in denial to the bloomberg scoop. to me, this is about the flow of money, access to capital, and dominance for growth. what do you make of the last 48 hours and the ebb and flow on this? >> it's going to be quite confusing. i think we know a couple of things. donald trump will use the u.s. dollar. he will use investment as a way to get the upper hand with trade wars. trade wars are not just about agricultural tariffs. they are about something more complicated. from that point of view, it does drive home of message that these trade wars, or these tensions, really have a long way to go before they can come to any sort of vent. high-level about talks in october. this is about high-level talks in october as part of ongoing trade talks. these talks will carry on into next year. on some level or other, tensions between the nations are going to continue for quite a long period of time. manus: let's draw a line forward. i started at 5:00 a.m. this morning with kiwi. confide

jane foley is senior foreign exchange strategist at rabobank. this contraction is only 0.2%.sedive, or are they looking for something else? these aren't the official data results, this is forward—looking data. the official results will come. these are forward—looking, saying what is happening presently in the third quarter. we know from the official date so that the economy did contract in the second quarter and the survey data, these forward—looking numbers are beginning to tell us in the third quarter we could see a contraction, too. we've got to bear in mind the uk economy is suffering headwinds 110w uk economy is suffering headwinds now from europe, our biggest trading partner. in 2017, after the brexit boat we had all those warnings about us— boat we had all those warnings about us—a boat we had all those warnings about us — a downturn, and it didn't happen. we were uplifted by strong growth in the eurozone was not in the second quarter we had a contraction in german growth, the eurozone did expand, so with headwinds coming in from germany, with headwinds coming in from

jane foley is a senior currency strategist for rabobank. always good to talk to you.how the markets react but why is it that the dollar is doing better against the pound? the dollar is one of the best performing g ten occurrences, not many have outperformed it. one of the reasons is there is a lot of global uncertainty, global growth is slowing down and the us dollar is a dominant currency in the payment system globally so when there is uncertainty, people internationally need to have dollars to cover their dollar—denominated debts. the dollar hits like a safe haven so it is performing well. even so, sterling is still at pretty weak levels against other currencies. you think anyone on holiday will know that in europe. it is still very vulnerable because of the political uncertainty. and it is the level of the country and the volatility. volatility can be very good if you area volatility can be very good if you are a speculator, but if you were a carpet and you need to buy in goods or sell your goods, then volatility is not what you need so it is not very good for busi

head ofey, rafa bank ethics strategy -- rabobank head of ethics strategy, joins us next.guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: the saudis pointing a finger vaguely in the direction of iran during the press conference we've been watching coming out of riyadh. brent is trading down by about 0.5%. we are waiting for the fed. that is the big decision we've got coming up. in thel of the action markets over the past couple of days, focus on the fed right now. a little bit of rotation away from some of the defensive names. euro-dollar pretty flat as well, down by 0.1%. vonnie: here we have novartis stock. we are getting breaking news on it. one unit is halting distribution of all versions of the gen

earlier i spoke to jane foley, a currency expert from rabobank.the euro. lots of people will be watching what happens today, will there be a general election, what terms will things be under and that might make the currency markets move a bit more. if you're going on holiday, those rates, $1.19.86. those things might move around as we get the announcements coming out of westminster today. it will have an impact on individuals going on holiday and businesses importing and exporting. we will be watching carefully. thanks very much. xiaomi have a bit ofa thanks very much. xiaomi have a bit of a brexit break? i think it is a nice idea —— shall we have. details of how bbc news bulletins were used to send secret messages to resistance fighters in the second world war have been released today. 80 years on from britain and france going to war with germany the archive recordings reveal how big ben was sometimes replaced with a recording to confuse german bombers. here's our arts correspondent david sillito. big ben chimes archive: this is the bbc home and