jane fully as the head of fx strategy at rabobank -- jane foley is the head of fx strategy at rabobankwe are seeing a flurry of geopolitical conversations happening. what could shift the dial in this war in europe? china is meeting the u.s., the qatari's meeting moscow and the brits going to rio. what is the most important conversation we need to track? >> we may have progress in the talks between ukraine and russia. that is obviously going to be game changing. that is the most important conversation. a meeting has been planned for sometime time, but obviously there is a new meaning given the context. russia asked china for some kind of assistance, potentially military equipment, we don't know what the chinese have said. how far will the u.s. and its allies pushed china in terms of secondary sanctions if it does move? that is another really important part of this equation. dani: there has been much made of some of the stability of some regions. they are not is exposed perhaps to russia-ukraine. if we are looking at a world where china is more involved, does that mean we have to rebut t

with rabobank, of course.n the foreign-exchange market, the last 48 hours have been absolutely extraordinary. lisa: i know you have been very focused on the japanese yen come of the weakest versus the dollar, now tracing this expectation that they will not allow this ongoing we getting and will have to abandon some of their pinning of the yield curve. i wonder how much we look at and emboldened federal reserve. how much do we suddenly shift the worries about a tail risk from eastern europe into a tail risk coming from central banks trying to convince markets to believe them that they really are going to be as hawkish as a lot of people have been pricing in? tom: what is fascinating here, this came up four times yesterday, who cares about japan? who cares about yen? insular nation, etc. the dynamics of trade and the entire dimon -- entire dynamics of the pacific rim, my brain can't even right now. i need more tang. but the answer is japan matters. lisa: especially as you talk about havens. what are the havens i

that is the senior commodity analyst at rabobank.earing from the ukrainian foreign minister. when we get some headlines from that address, we will bring them to you. one thing that jumps out to me, did you see that note from steve englander at standard chartered? tom: it is real simple, he's trying to gauge what happens wednesday. it is important. jonathan: we see five fomc projected hikes, neutral given market sentiment. lisa: but that is different than it was before. earlier, he thought they were going to frontload it and then stop, and increasingly you are seeing people increase the number of rate hikes as they try to figure out this new inflationary regime we are and. jonathan: the big question, and steve suggests they will try to ignore it, the fomc may avoid indicating whether we need more or less tightening. that debate will be hard to avoid. tom: i believe it is the may 4 meeting, a single sentence from englander, optimism on growth and labor market performance. that is the other side if we get an ok economy. that is why the

jane foley from rabobank. _ on russian gas. jane foley from rabobank, thank _ on russian gas.who had been living and working in the uk for decades, but who were told they were in britain illegally because of a lack of official paperwork. our community affairs correspondent adina campbell is here. it was an enormous issue at that time, remind us of some of the details, how it came to light. today�*s review is after an independent report two years ago which looked at the causes of the windrow scandal. we now thousands of caribbean migrants in the lead up to the 2018 scandal being exposed had been wrongly detained, deported, didn�*t have access to nhs benefits, lost their careers, and it difficult to get housing and that was because of home office mistakes caused by a lack of paperwork and very rigid home office immigration policies. today there has been a review looking at the progress of that report two years ago and the government apologised at that time on the whole point of that report was to learn lessons and make sure those injustices couldn�*t happen again. today one of t

jane foley is head of foreign exchange strategy at rabobank here in london. good morning, jane.sn't it? it’s good morning, jane. this is a real problem, isn't it?- real problem, isn't it? it's a problem — real problem, isn't it? it's a problem certainly _ real problem, isn't it? it's a problem certainly for - real problem, isn't it? it's a problem certainly for the i problem certainly for the europeans and a big problem for the russians as well if you consider the impact of a falling currency and it has fallen very dramatically in the last couple of months, that mean they want to buy to bring into russia rise in value and russians are now experiencing a significant inflationary problem. for instance, in some regions of russia remember it's a large country sugar prices up by 30%, shortages of goods, fear amounts of panic buying, while trying to stabilise the currency, the central bank, the government and keep down those inflationary pressures, normally the central bank can step in and by its own currency, sell some reserves in foreign currency to do that, but the russian central

jane foley joins us from rabobank. we have the news of the moment.does euro signal and what is your prediction of how it will move? jane: i think it is signaling some optimism in the market that the euro will avoid recession but there have been some nasty indicators. we can look at the pmi and see in those input prices, much higher prices coming through. that is one of the reasons why business confidence is beginning to flounder in the euro zone. higher prices for energy will be difficult for firms. this is not a scenario where we can afford blackouts. there is still the energy security threat for europe. there are significant headwinds. the market is taking an optimistic stance on that for now. tom: what is important is the belief, hope that it will not happen, that financial authorities will follow the confidence data. when is your reading of how central banks adapt to diminished confidence? jane: if you look at christine lagarde's comments, she said even under the worst case scenario, stagflation will be avoided. i would say that is not the worst

the latest from jane foley head of foreign exchange strategy at rabobank in london.some estimates suggesting the war could cost $1 trillion. what will central banks be thinking right now they have a dilemma? they do it's all about that word stagflation, that means slower growth and higher inflation rates, that is what high—energy prices could bring. we have to spend money on energy and takes money out of our pockets to spend on other things, meaning demand can go down and growth rates can slow at the same time inflation rates go up, that's the dilemma central banks are facing. 0ne central banks are facing. one of the big components of what they are thinking is in patient expectations, this is key because inflation expectations govern our behaviour, if we expect inflation to go up we bid for higher wages for instance, if we get higher wages we set a spiral into play which could force inflation higher. this is one of the reasons central banks are likely to the hike in interest rates as the market has been expecting them to do this year but perhaps at a slower pace than

commodity strategist set rabobank looked at the effect on food prices.% jump in wheat prices and a 20% rise in corn prices. we're already on our way with wheat prices jumping almost 17% after russia invaded and corn has jumped almost 7%. >> not even the girl say from pandemic-related supply chain issues that cookie selling season is seen shortages across our region. some troops in california say that this is making it difficult to get your hands on some of the favorites. is also known as the caramel delights and the relatively new smores cookies supply chain issues affecting delivery of all of the cookie boxes that have been ordered. the girl scouts say they're trying to resolve the issue. but so far there is no shortage on thin mints, which of course, is another girl scout favorite. >> and now kron 4 sports from the 18 t fiber sports desk. >> major league baseball's opening day is largely considered the unofficial start of spring for most sports fans. for me, it serves as an annual reminder that summer right around the corner. so i need to start doing m

here's jane foley from the dutch bank rabobank.in�*s want to strengthen the rouble. now, we saw a massive sell—off and the value of the rouble at the start of the war. it has got back quite a lot of ground, but it's still around about 17 or so percent weaker than it was at the end of last year, and we've got to consider with what's happening in the russian economy, there is a lot of inflation. economists now predicting that the economy could contract, in terms of the size of its gdp, for two consecutive years. that's a huge recessionary backdrop. russia supplies about a third of europe's gas. so, what does this mean for europe? here's our business presenter victoria fritz. this is, sort of, almost for europe, the worst april fools joke ever. nobody is laughing because what putin is saying here is if you don't effectively pay for our gas in roubles, whichever which way you want to do it, and via our own bank accounts, we will not give you gas. we've heard from germany and france — who have rejected russia's demands. the german econo