rachel donadio, from paris, thank you so much. for more reaction, i'm joined by thank you so much.rofessor in infection disease modelling at the university of warwick. with the prime minister's speech what you wanted to hear? that is certainly crucial, we have pretty good evidence, as the prime minister said in his speech, that the reproduction number is currently below one. there is still quite a lot of uncertainty how far below one it is. our predictions would say it is anything from about 0.520.9. actually, the exact value is really crucial when it comes to lifting down measures because if it turns out that our reproduction number is relatively close to one, then we may see a resurgence as we start to relax. if the reproduction number is actually somewhat lower than that, it gives us a little bit more flexibility in terms of relaxation, so flexibility in terms of relaxation, soi flexibility in terms of relaxation, so i think it was a very important message and i think the key message going forward as well is that if we start to relax —— much as we start to relax lockdown, it mus