that's giving not just the high-end retailers including ralph lauren and -- actually, ralph, see, everybody's losing their gains here. so this is a realtime moment where we're seeing the whole market kind of get swamped by the red tide. ralph lauren was higher, now it's slightly lower. tap industry sill up 4%. still up 4 %. you also have some discount retailers. i'm too scared to look. oh, they're all still higher. [laughter] five below up a quarter of a percent, burlington stores up half a percent. the discounters are getting that push, but not all is well in the state of denmark or toyland, as it were. mattel is a very messy chart today, down 11% at the moment after reporting a weak holiday quarter. here's what the company said, customers simply did not buy as many toys this season. they were too busy buying higher prices food and gasoline. yes, inflation. two stocks are keeping dow's losses in check right now although disney has just been claimed by the bears. it just turned negative. it is now, after having been up 5% at a session low, could be 12 cents. so that is -- down 12 cents. so th

ralph lauren says they're feeling the inflationary pressure and having to be more discerning on theiron the other hand, mastercard, kellogg, mcdonald's and mondoleze are seeing the opposite meantime, mastercard's report came out today showing retail sales in january were up 8% from a year ago joining us now is michelle meyer. 8% is pretty strong by pretty much any standard. where is it coming from? does this look like a trend, or is it a blip in january? >> it's not a blip it's been pretty trendlike, strong spending on a nominal basis, but it really does differ by category. that's the big story, this bifurcation in how consumers are spending where certainly dollars are moving towards travel, towards experience-based spending where some of those goods-based categories are seeing a challenge, particularly those in the housing market. >> yeah, and just to break it down, restaurants -- i guess we're a year past omicron, so january of '22 is maybe a depressed level, but still, to your point, where are you seeing the big jumps, and i guess what does it mean for the underlying conditions of

ralph lauren is off of the highs up 2.5%. baxter international the health care company down 12%.el down on a backorder as well. -- on a bad quarter as well. guy: what are we watching today? and ecb councilmember and president biden are speaking in about an hour in two separate events. joe biden will be talking about social security and medicare. earnings, we are going to get lyft, expedia and paypal. alix: balance of power with david westin will be up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power" with david westin. da

ralph lauren up 3.6%. they are continuing to raise the average price of their strong demand.n't sound so much like a recession. we have these interesting signals back and forth. mgm up a point super strength -- mgm up 8.2%. affirm plunging down 18%. speaking of firm holdings, they are laying off about 19% of their global workforce. this is a trend. in terms of financial workforces, we have had more minor cuts at j.p. morgan, alliancebernstein, totaling 4%. affirm, 19% of the total. not taking as much energy as some of the tech jobs we have been hearing about. those cuts, we are seeing it in other sectors as well. finally we have the two-year, 10 year spread. 80 bibs the lowest -- 80 bips the lowest we have seen since december. this signal in the past has always been followed by a recession. we have a lot of data that suggests it doesn't seem an early recession is happening. this kind of a tell, i would not go against a. a soft landing, hard landing, right now stocks probably saying soft landing. alix: we have ignored that inversion for a while. duke energy shares down about 1

that reminds us of ralph lauren today. b of a ups to buy.ts capri, a bit of a mixed picture in retail given questions about the consumer and disparate outcomes regarding inventory >> i think the ralph lauren call is a bit of a quality operator, well positioned, looks like they're past some of the tough stuff. it's not a table pounder about some real change of trajectory for the business but it's like, you stick with the better operators. huge questions you see some stocks like tapestry, making new highs consistently recently, so some of the branded goods companies were doing well, but nobody, i think is very confident about a macro call you're not likely to see re-acceleration in consumer, even if wage growth is still here and nobody's fallen apart yet. >> although, one of the arguments lately has been the january jobs print was fueled by warm weather, for example. i've seen some estimates that it added a hundred k, and as a result, retail sales on wednesday could come in hot, as well as cpi. >> it was real activity, even if you can't necess

big oil's combined profits last year are enough to buy chipotle, etsy, pelton, delta air lines, ralph laurenh this money? they are spending on new supply, but critics, including the white house, say they're not spending aggressively enough on new supply. they are, however, spending on massive shareholder rewards. check out these multi-year buyback programs that have been announced by big oil recently. $4 billion from shell, $50 billion from exxon, and shell alone, $75 billion in buybacks. how did we get here? big oil is cashing in for a number of reasons, the war in ukraine sent oil and natural gas prices skyrocketing last year. demand for energy bounced back from the covid cash, and this is key, wall street is very much against the drill, baby, drill mantra. they want companies to return cash to shareholders and not spend it on expensive drilling projects. it's important to remember that this is a notorious boom to bust industry. when times are bad, they're real bad. exxon lost $22 billion in 2020 alone. dozens of oil companies went bankrupt that year and oil prices went negative in the spr

if you need apparel, i'll go with ralph lauren. roger in minnesota, roger?stion about what i owned in the past, looking to get back in. it's topping around the 200 level here is this a good stop -- >> yes, i do think -- look, i think that the company has got it i was listening to phil lebeau unbelievable one and two in california for e.v. the best product stay long. tesla. how about paul in new york, paul >> caller: boo-yah, jim. great to talk to you thanks for taking the call. >> of course, thank you for calling. >> caller: thank you teza -- >> nothing distinguishing. no, no, no, no sell it. nothing distinguishing it's not unobtainable but none i like tesla more. it's not a drug company. how about jerry in california, jer? >> caller: yeah, bueno hello, jim, hello. i wondered about mckesson. >> no, they just print money unbelievable bill in georgia, bill? >> caller: bill. >> hey, bill i'm jim. [ laughter ] cull c >> caller: jim, nice to meet you finally. love the show. thank you for all you do for us. >> thank you >> caller: hey, been enjoying watching the m

chipotle, 19 amazon, 18 ralph lauren, 16 ulta has ownership on the desk, 12 what's the story here? >> yeah. yeah and it's a lot of what rob and joe already shared i think earlier this year and, scott, even what you said at the top, this idea of potentially no landing, soft landing, recessionary fears softening, that has been a catalyst for a lot of the growth engines and growth oriented stocks in the market and i think they were deeply oversold last year the nasdaq was down 34%. it's been a leader this year there's a seesaw effect playing on the market and also this kind of good news/bad news narrative. last year bad news is good news. maybe good news is good news the labor market is extremely strong we saw retail numbers today that were very strong the consumer is spending and is confident there's jobs out there available. if they leave this job or get laid off there will be another one they can find. that's what's playing out in the market so far. and we'll see how the next couple quarters play out >> bryn, joe throws out this idea of positioning. and i think it is well represent

. >> ralph lauren was incredible it shows you how happy everybody is salesforce, there's now five activistshow many sactivists -- it's like a riddle how many activists does it take to have a stock go up? five wynn was amazing it was just an incredible, incredible coincidence love it. >> iger on the other side of the break. don't go away. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber here at the disney lot and joined by the aforementioned bob iger, the ceo of disney. it is nice to see you. >> nice to see you too welcome to disney. >> thank you i think it's fair to say that neither one of us could have imagined being here even a couple of months ago it's only, what, 14 months since we did your exit interview, bob. so, you know, i'd love to just start off, when you got a call, maybe it was from susan arnold or from the board, and they said, we'd like you to come back, why did you say, yes >> it was from susan arnold. she called me on the friday before the sunday that it was announced. much to my surprise, i was not looking for a job, and i was not anticipating that i would be ask

ralph lauren, bank of america upgraded them to buy. they gave them a price target of 145.y say all this cautiousness is already baked in. speaking of bank of america and upgrades, fastly, that it's a company that helps app developer s double upgrade at b of a to buy. they say look investors get in here, get in on the ground floor and they like the diversified products and the turnaround by the new ceo who came over back in september from cisco. ashley: who wouldn't invite lauren simonetti? if they don't they aren't worth it. one more for you, lauren, before we move on. a new study shows how much remote work is costing new york city. what's the number? lauren: more than $12 billion a year, according to bloomberg news. ashley: wow. lauren: they found workers spend an average of 30% less time in the office compared to before the pandemic, and because of that, they are spending about $4,700 less on things like food and entertainment near their jobs. another survey last month found less than 10% of new york city workers have returned to work full-time. look, yes, you save money

announcement of the expectations for the coming year kellogg with results better than expected hilton, ralph lauren, mattel, down 10%, because people spent leg less on toys during the holidays and speaking of the consumer, if you're in buy now, pay later, this has been a rough day for stocks like affirm holdings, which lost about a fifth of its value. this was a $176 stock in 2021 at the highs. it's now $12 and change. affirm coming out with a disappointing earnings result coming out yesterday and taking a look at the overall scheme for these rising interest rates, maybe plays a part in that consumer trade and maybe has a factor in these buy now, pay later stocks back over to you >> thank you very much the bond market slashing a major warning. jobless claims are near all-time lows which data points matter more? welcome. good to see you again. we're thrilled to have you here. from my point of view, the bond market is always leading, the job market is always lagging but you have had much more experience what do you think is going on here >> i would increasingly go with the jobs markets, and here's wh

. >> jimmy: aw >> in my little ralph lauren you know, i've been golfing my whole life it's just -- it's beach watch this and, yeah, listen. >> oh, nice swing. >> yeah. >> what a swing there. >> god, what a good swing. >> team mate. >> where is that going, steve >> it's a million dollar hole, you know >> yes [ cheers and applause >> jimmy: are you kidding me >> well, thank you thank you. >> jimmy: was that bill murray >> that was bill you know, that's where the two things that i do really come together 'cause i was acting like a pro golfer i'm really not a -- i'm okay that was the only good shot i hit all day. it's the only one that's on tv >> jimmy: that's all you need, though >> yeah, they would show my swing and then cut away so that no one saw where the ball went >> jimmy: yeah >> but i really had to pull it together, you know bill and macklemore were cheering me on they were like, "kathryn, let's go." and i was like, "okay. so, it's the only good shot i hit that day >> jimmy: so, you hear bill murray go, like, "what a swing. >> i know. >> jimmy: was there pressure golfing with bill?

. >> from ralph lauren to fubu.y have to be predominantly associated with music. >> right. >> it filters out to fashion as well. you can't have a half a crossover. >> right. ♪ >> reporter: in 2003, after hip-hop had popularized oversized jerseys and baggy pants, jay-z called for change. >> people stopped buying the athletic jerseys. jay-z single handedly changed fashion. when jay-z made that record, people come into the store saying give me two of them gucci suits. >> reporter: it would take another 15 years before gucci would acknowledge and collaborate with dapper dan. >> dapper dan re-emerges onto the mainstream cultural landscape in 2017 when he partners with gucci. >> it's funny. after playing so long with other people's logos fblgs he's got his own brand on the bark. >> absolutely. >> reporter: since then he's worked with gap, changing one letter on their classic sweatshirt. he has a collection with puma. when he wears gucci now, it's the real thing. >> there it is, dapper dan, gucci, made in har lemt. >> yeah

dana: i like ralph laron -- ralph lauren and i like deckers. tom: an enthusiastic retail report.in publishing a scathing critique. it is a long, thoughtful essay from the gentleman from -- lisa a.: that is what we heard from jim bianco, this question of what is the new normal. perhaps the fed is not as restrictive as some people think. tom: do not get it from us. we protect the copyright. you can go to jp morgan to get the kasman note. he walks through williams and the rest on r starred. ken rogoff push to get olivia blanche -- pushed against his colleague olivia blanche hard. lisa a.: perhaps the central bank won't have the conviction to go the last mile. tom: claims tomorrow after this bang up retail sales statistic. futures, -12. 18.94. exit stage left! brian deese at noon. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean ene

companies like mcdonald's, mondelez and ralph lauren who have indicated that.nsumer and his best take on the best retailers right now is jan nippon, the ceo of james rogers nippon, wwe. how is the consumer faring what do you think we'll hear with the retail sales number today? >> first of all, it is january, so, it is not a very -- it is the smallest month of the year, it doesn't mean a lot when you see the number however, how is the consumer faring the consumer is faring surprisingly well given the fact we still saw high inflation on the cpi. and we saw really high inflation on the food side of the cpi, which, of course, sucks up a lot of that otherwise what would be discretionary spending but, everybody has got a job and we saw that in the last report there is nothing to change that as far as i can see. the consumer is still getting a raise in those jobs. and people who change jobs are getting still fairly large raises so the consumer is pretty healthy and they're still spending we have seen that and i think we'll see that later today but, something's going o

ralph performed lift every voice and sing, the black national anthem. unsurprisingly, right wingers had a complete meltdown over the inclusion of a rallying cry for liberty for black americans. laurennational anthem while marjorie taylor greene whined about the wokism of it all. in a league where nearly 70% of the players are black, actually, the ishould be singing that song, but anywhom. meanwhile at a time when women's bodily ought omany is under siege, reani used her platform to break the internent and announce her second pregancy. it was also an occasion for the nfl to pat itself on the back to do the bare minimum when it comes to promoting diversity and inclusion. prominently featuring calls to end racism even as kansas city fans brought a litany of racist iconography. and then of course, there were the ads which in my humble opinion were really not that great this year. but two from a group called he gets us really stood out. telling viewers to be childlike, and urging us to look past our differences with a tagline, jesus loved the people we hate. but what those ads didn't tell you is who was behind the he gets us campaign. it's part of a $100 million campaign to help promote