it strikes me we have jay powell, a non-economist, randy quarles, a non-economist, and this man is an economist was incredible. does it mean he has an outsized influence within the fed? experiencehink this less to having a good voice on the committee. he is well respected internally and externally. his body of research is very strong. the san francisco has put out good pieces on the neutral rate and other sorts of topical comments. i think the new york fed president has a big influence on that fomc. hemp being an economist is good for balance of opinions. why they become more important, and it does it change the characters around the table but bill dudley will not be there anymore because williams has been a member, but now he will be at every meeting. selectiont does the

randy quarles saying, do not worry.g, worried. 2.9%, 10 year yields .end to peak here we are. the 10 year close to 2.9% but they are still raising short rates. mechanics, flattening curve. the market doesn't see inflation on the horizon. they are looking at it as temporary and a coming down. david: does the ftse a potential recession? a do they -- does the fed see potential recession? they have to move up rates? >> they are boxed in. forward guidance, we are not going that far. on the other hand, they have to raise short-term rate to get ammunition particularly as they are unwinding balance sheets. alix: you raise the point of not seeing inflation and that is why the back end cannot raise. longer-term question -- crude versus 10-year breakevens what you could swap with aluminum or nickel -- overall commodities -- if inflation moves higher? -- three and a quarter, 3.5 or so. is it sustainable inflation? or is this a one-time thing because of chill tariffs. wholesale prices going up but can they pass? alix: there are comp

randy quarles is not an economist. . jay powell is not an economist. brainerd is, but that's it.for ideas. one of the things the fed is considering now is do we don't the 2% inflation target and go to some other scheme? 2% isn't working. guy: to that point, the fed chair speaks in chicago on friday if my bloomberg is correct, which am absolutely certain it is. how much is what he's going to talk about going to revolve around trade? -- to this trade issue upset could this trade issue upset current thinking and models? michael: the trade issue could be huge and emphasize could because it down the road. it's a small part of both economies at the moment. if it escalates, it could be a big deal. if you are saying if, the fed cannot deal with it. it has to do with what it can model and anticipate. they cannot factor it into their considerations. it as something they are keeping an ion, but it will not influence the fed's monetary policy decisions right now. they are looking at jobs. friday is jobs day in the united states. they will be looking at incomes and whether wages are going up

eastern time several central bankers are set to speak today, including lael brainard and randy quarlespanies reporting quarterly results today include blackstone, bny mellon and quest diagnostics. yesterday was a mixed day for the markets with the dow slightly low every and ter and s&p slightly higher. today, moderate declines >>> we are getting some new details on why 21st century fox rejected a takeover bid from cnbc's parent company, comcast they say they didn't take up the offer because of antitrust concerns we learned the comcast offer was a 16.5% higher number than disney's bid >>> crude seeing its highest trade since late 2014. joining us now with a look at what's driving up the price of oil is john kilduff, cnbc contributor and founding partne. i'm working on my iphone, you can take over? >> joe, please >> is this an iphone 8 or 7 >> i don't know. >> you should get an android >> i think it's an 8 >> i'm really savvy, as you can tell to talk about supply or demand is fruitless we have to talk both something is happening on both of those fronts. list everything on both of those t

vice chair, randy quarles. i welcome you to your new position and hope you're prosperous. since you are new, i would like to hear, what lessons did you learn from the financial crisis that you can share with us? >> so, i would say that they -- you know, there are some specific ones. there are some general ones. probably the most general one is a sense of humility about the regulators as has been mentioned and is widely known. regulators were closely involved with the financial system at a very granular level. for a period there, at least on a policy level when i was at the treasury department, i certainly was involved with policy regarding the financial sector. and while we considered issues about potential financial stress, none of us bleefbed, none of us knew that the financial -- this sort of financial stress was coming. and, indeed, most people didn't. so, you know, i approached my current responsibilities with a great sense of humility about the ability of even very well-meaning, smart, engaged, informed people to know the future. and i think that has to inform how we