i have to say, we look at some of the hawkish comments we have from raphael bostic and mary daly. let's take a couple of days off, it is thursday. tom: that is the key data point. we are in -- on tuesday. a bit of profit taking across these markets ahead of the cpi print. in terms of giving it a clearer direction. we did have those officials coming out, nonvoting members, but the view that you will get 5% or above and held above -- for longer. the significance of these markets, we continue to weigh up what is happening in china. a bit of a pause in terms of the reopening trade across equities. different for iron or. the ftse 100 down 0.4%. the boe chief changing his tone, with the team is seeing in terms of inflation hedging slightly lower from the chief economist at the boe. the cac 40 down 0.4%. in spain, losses of 21 points. let's see how things are playing out cross asset. the s&p failed to hold significantly above 3900. just above in terms of futures. mike wilson from morgan stanley suggesting there could be further downside. up to 20% downside for the s&p because of these re

some are questioning whether that's true raphael bostic telling me last week there's more work to do. tom barkin from richmond saying the inflation fight isn't over the minutes of the meeting that came out last week say no fed official is forecasting cuts in 2023 meanwhile, you have the ims services contracting the inflation rate running around 2.5%. look at how the job market reacted to all of this an economic weak necessary ahead, he said that act like we have a date with 5% or higher, almost no matter what happens here what is strange at this moment when things are so ambiguous, is for the fed to act as if their actions are so predictable the fed may have it right, but they could be making a mistake, such as last year, when they all decided the recession was transitory >> yes, yes. that quote is so good. it's odd to be in an environment we've never been in before, yet why is everybody talking about a number instead of arguing about the data and what's leading, what's lagging, and whether the bond market can -- let me bring in catherine. >>> take a test. who is the most hawkish? >>

that was atlanta fed president raphael bostic talking about the jobs number this morning, talking abouts well. joining us at post 9 to talk more about the print today is jan hatzius, goldman sachs' chief economist. great to have you back on. welcome. >> it's great to be on with you. >> do you think wages are driving the dynamic now? what do you think he means >> well, i think he means there's not a white wedge price spiral i think, nevertheless, wages are important because ultimately, you can't have wages growing at 5% plus, and then have inflation sustainably at 2%. that doesn't really work so, i think it is encouraging in today's employment report that wage growth, you know, does seem to be decelerating it's decelerating gradually, but while the report a month ago showed a very strong wage number, with some questions around statistical issues around it, that was reversed. and we had a very significant downside surprise relative to the expectations going into the report so, i would put some weight on that. >> right we had you on last month, of course, and we talked about return to disp

raphael bostic says inflation is still way too high. yes he sees good signs that prices are moderating, but there is still much work to do. that seems to be the main theme. jim says he thinks it could be going in the right direction and we are getting there. you see esther and rafael saying maybe there is progress but mostly they are looking at the fact they're going to have to keep the rates high in it that's one of the toughest thing for markets to get used to. shery: what do they need to see to make that much expected pivot? >> the labor market is key. it is still tight. let's start with u.s. payrolls. they are expected to slow from the previous month to an increase of about 202,000. bear in mind over the last eight months, each time we have gotten this monthly nonfarm payrolls number, it is come in well above forecast. furthermore, the adp private tally of jobs came in higher than expected for the month of december. they don't go hand-in-hand, but they are usually in the same direction. maybe another sign that the market is resilien

eastern and we get non-farm payroll numbers and the fed officials speaking with raphael bostic aftergeorge. >>> let's get a check of the markets. we have seen movement in the futures. it remains mixed right now the dow gained a bit of strength in the early trade joining me now is patrick fruzzetti at hightower great to have you on >> good morning, frank >> patrick, we have been talking about it all morning drama in d.c. and the fed minutes out raising rates for some time. no real sign of the pivot. the jobs report which means good news could be bad news what are you expecting for the markets today? >> frank, entering 2023, we are hoping for new beginnings. it feels more of the same. we have a strong and tight labor market we saw it with the adp numbers yesterday. today, unemployment is expected to remain unchanged. non-farm payroll around 200,000 means the fed will be higher for longer i think the fed has been firm and very consistent in the message. that will continue certainly through the first half of the year >> one of the big stories of 2022 was the rising dollar in q4, it fizzl

the market thought it should add up to less fed raphael bostic in the interview on cnbc says he is still full steam ahead of hiking above 5%. >> what i think is important is to hold there and stay there and let the policy stance grip the economy and make sure the m momentum is fully arrested to get to a place where demand and supply start to come more into balance. >> in fact, multiple fed officials speaking after the numbers came out steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> and the picture overall today is still positive. less than the price action on friday s&p opening nine points higher let's take a look at the dollar. we did see a market selloff in the dollar on friday it was down 1.1% today, you can see that some of the weakness is continuing the euro is shy of 107 the pound keeps moving higher. 121.60 the dollar/yen is flat so much to discuss let's bring in the next guest. the managing director of fx strategy at rbc. great to have you on the show. we are going to talk about the non-farm payroll print and the impact on the u.s. dollar. it feels one of the major stories we have been ta

steve liesman will speak with esther george and followed by the atlanta fed president raphael bostic lots of fed chatter. >>> now the fed has done away with forward guidance, there is more emphasis on the data. yesterday, we learned u.s. job openings fell less than expected in november. the number of available positions at 10.46 million from 10.51 million in october the number of quits rose by 126,000. separately, the ism manufacturing index fell for the second straight month from 49 the month prior. >>> 2022 had rate hikes across many markets tim edwards with s&p 500 is with us tim, i want to kickoff what we saw yesterday. a bit for the bulls and bears in terms of data. the economy is slowing, but the labor market remains tight everybody is trying to figure out what this means for the fed. what do you do with the data as an investor? >> it is interesting to reflect, actually exactly a year ago that we got the december minutes from the fed. they said we will change direction and that turned out to be the high in the equity markets. this year, we got the minutes from the december meet

raphael bostic would consider slower rate hikes if the data confirmed the cooling scene in the last jobs report and mary daly said the case can be made for a half or quarter point increase >> jay powell will speak at the symposium in stockholm today the speech is scheduled for 1500 cet and comes on the heels of the jobs report. on thursday, we get latest reading on the inflation according to the fed watch tool, traders ares are pricing in a 2e rate at the next meeting >> we will hear from others at stockholm today. andrew bailey and the bank of japan governor and the bank of canada what an amazing day coming up if you are into that thing. >> i'm very excited for you. >> looking forward to the information. it is a one-off event in sweden. it is an event in honor of ingves today the outgoing governor. they organized this symposium. high level governors coming to speak there. of course, all market participants will watch out for one man today. jay powell the expectation is they can afford to start slowing down the pace of the rate hikes and going ahead with the 25 basis point hike at the ne

this is something that james bullard has said, something that raphael bostic has said, as well.his is coming in the context of some other players, the dallas fed, patrick harker getting on the train at 25 basis points. we will continue to bring you more headlines as we get them, specifically, commentary from lael brainard in chicago. still ahead, joe manchin discusses a path forward to a catastrophic u.s. default. that interview from davos, switzerland. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: this is bloomberg markets. i'm kriti gupta. now to something that i think is so important, even if the markets are not trading on it. the u.s. debt limit. really making the extraordinary measures enacted at the treasury. take a look at the last five or six years. you can see how it has popped higher. will they be able to push their differences aside and navigate yet another increase in the debt ceiling? a lot of people saying is the debt ceiling even a logical option? that will be a hot topic not just here in washington but in davos, switzerland. senator joe manchin is calling for bipartisan commission

colleagues will speak to raphael bostic later today that is happening at 4:00 p.m. cet. >>> coming up on the show, tesla sinks in the pre-market as it slashes prices in asia the second cut in a quarter in china where the model y is now on sale at a huge discount to the u.s. the details are coming up next when we started selling my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster and we're saving a ton. go to shipstation.com /tv and get 2 months free. >>> welcome back to "street signs. bed bath & beyond reaching 30 year lows on thursday. the retailer warned it is running out of cash on the reports it could file for bankruptcy the firm is considering withholding interest payments on $1.5 billion of debt due february 1st triggering a 30-day grace period before it defaults the retailer posted a $385 million loss in the third quarter. >>> samsung's quarterly profit fell to an eight-year low. the south korean electronics giant has seen leower demand fo chips. sherry cheng filed this rep

that may be one of the reasons we heard from raphael bostic, and made it clear, we are staying on hold for a long time. it makes the job more difficult. let me just add, we have got a big package coming through from the physical side of the equation. that is something the fed is going to have to work its way through, because that is going to feed even more inflation. kriti: it was interesting to see how far that goes. once again, quincy, we have not talked about china yet. certainly a topic for next time as well. quincy krosby of lpl financial. get a check on these markets. the stock market, green on the screen for the s&p 500. you are seeing some real outperformance not only in the nasdaq, but russell as well. which tells you there is momentum at play when it comes to equities. you are seeing the 10 year yield down about 10 basis points. monumental move in the bond market. some special guests coming up. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ - if you're thinking about going back to school this is for you. ♪ ♪ - i ended up spending less money my entire time at snhu than i did in just

report showed wage growth slowing but this morning on "squawk on the street" atlanta fed president raphael bostic said the data doesn't change his outlook at all. >> i've been looking for the economy to continually slow from the strong position it was at in the summertime and this is just the next step in that. the question for me has always been how fast is it going to slow and it's going incrementally steady it's not super disruptive but because of that, it really says to knee, you know, we've got to stay the course. >> joining me now is apollo global management chief economist. great to have you back on. welcome. >> thanks. >> so even though bostic says it doesn't do much from him, the market is taking it as a sign that the fed won't have to do all that much more or may be able to pause sooner than expected the forward wage growth, the weaker services. is that the right take >> what mike is saying, this is the definition of a soft landing. we have inflation coming down. the economy is not slowing dramatically it's gradual it's steady as bostic just said. all of that tells you that up to this p

raphael bostic, nor mary daly voted this year. for reducing the size of rate hikes will be boosted if the inflation data that we get on thursday shows consumer prices cooling down. sources telling us that china is considering a record closure of up to 560 million dollars for special local government bonds. special bonds are a key funding source, which economists expect will fuel growth close to 5% or higher. officials are said to be looking at widening the budget deficit target to 3% of gdp for 2023. bloomberg sources saying that bhp has struck a deal to sell australian coal the chinese firms, a sign of easing trade curbs between the two countries. bhp sold to shipments to china by steel group for late january loading. china slapped an informal ban on australian coal in 2020 as relations soured between the two. we've got the billionaire, of nichols a short squeeze planning a shift in his production. we've got bloomberg sources telling us this billionaire is targeting a a refinery that causes a large premium and is in talks with st

officials will be facing the somewhat conflicting signals and here is what the atlanta fed president, raphael bostic, said about it when he was asked about this conundrum. >> i am very open to both. one of the things for me, we got a fair amount of feedback from the business community that the holiday season experience was going to be a big driver about their expectations about where they year is going to go, so as those numbers come out and we get a clearer sense, that will really help me move. 25 versus 50. jinshan: now -- kathleen: now, we know where jobs are and we will be focused on consumer prices, a big inflation report that comes out on wednesday. rishaad: what are we looking at with regards to cpi thursday? that will be key here and if we get 6.5% which is the headline rate, would that be enough for a smaller move in terms of interest rates? kathleen: absolutely. wednesday, u.s. thursday, asia. what has become the big report of all the reports to come out every month, let's take a look at what is going on here because the numbers last month came in lower than expected and now, this month, a

we'll talk exclusively with atlanta fed president raphael bostic right here on this show >> steve, youw, the message remains clear. of course, from the fed minutes yesterday from the december meeting, they have some attention on wanting to make sure the market doesn't overanticipate a dovish turn even if inflation starts to come down what's interesting to me, though, is the fixation on the labor market, which is clearly the first place to stop if you're trying to figure out the health of the economy and the drivers of inflation, perhaps. but don't we remember the history of in the' 90s we thought unemployment rate couldn't go below 5% without sparking inflation, spiral higher when things were good. people were confused we couldn't create 2% inflation with unemployment low i guess my point is, they seem confident in the relationship between the labor market and inflation trends when, in the past cycles, it hasn't been that reliable >> it's true, mike everything you say, the history is 100% accurate the trouble is history is not really rhyming right now and i really go back, mike, to the

mentions of the economic risks of its aggressive rate hikes we talked to atlanta fed president raphael bosticast week he said there is more work to do both he and esther george of kansas city say that 5% rate should last well into 2024 barkin from the richmond fed says the inflation fight isn't over those minutes on wednesday said there would be no cut, no fed official is thinking about cuts in 2023. meanwhile, ism services contracted that's the biggest part of the economy. december wage growth slowed after november was revised down sharply. the five-month annualized inflation rate running around 2.5% the market took in all this data and here's how it reacted. it fell in two different steps from the jobs number and again the ism services number, a sign it sees both the inflation and economic weakness after taking in all that data the appearance by looking at their comments is fed officials are not data-dependent put looks like they're headed to 5% no matter what. some out there are counseling patients at oxford, their economist wrote t may take longer for organic forces to bring inflation bac

lisa: that is where i wanted to go, raphael bostic talking about 25 basis points at the next meetingend point stays the same. is that the message, don't rally if we only raise 25 basis points? mike: definitely a message they want to deliver. if they do 25, jay powell will make that clear in his news conference. interesting research from goldman sachs this morning, as far as they are concerned, the impact of the fed's cumin tip tightening is hitting the economy now. long and variable lags are shorter than we think, which means the economy is growing faster than people think in 2023, and they will have to raise rates more. tom: olivier blanchard with a new book out. this is thin, gorgeous. this is a really important document. he talks here about the algebra underlying all of your world. does chairman powell leave in the algebra, does he have a model that he can trust? mike: he does not have a model that he can trust, however, they use the models because it is what they have, gives them guidance. at this point, the fed concedes, as everyone does, that this is a different kind of recover

raphael bostic at 9:20. do they give a sense of where they fall on these balance of risks? of the various machinations of fed speaks. are they willing to go fall kashkari and her say we are going to torpedo any growth and keep going because we will not even know if we have seen big inflation. jonathan: that meant something very different to years ago. tom: what would we do without her? you and i would have never came up. jonathan: lisa is a full class -- full-time world-class economist. the global market strategist joins us around the table. thus -- does kashkari have friends at the federal reserve? do you think he has company? david: i think this is one of the instances where, what the market wants to hear and see is very different from what the fed is planning to deliver and to reintegrate the point, they are haunted by the 1970's. they are more than comfortable. they are more than comfortable overdoing it in a area on the side of caution rather than having inflation becoming more ingrained in the economy. tom: what's do i do if i go to a big fancy bank and i took the rig

this comes the day after the comments from raphael bostic who said the fed is willing to overshoot withrough 2024 he will consider a 25 basis point hike depending on the cpi data best hope for stocks coming thursday that may not be enough the fed has been inclined to look past it guys >> steve liesman, quickly. how tough do you think he will talk today in terms of how the market may be reacting one way or the other >> if he gets around to talking about the economy, andrew, and monetary policy, i don't know today is the day he will give monetary policy. maybe if comments are there after the inflation report and it is benign, maybe he will signal 25 is coming rather 50. like i said, i don't think this is data dependent. this is date dependent they have a date with 5% funds rate >> steve, thank you. i appreciate it. we'll see. >>> coming up, we talk markets and where you might be putting your money to work futures are still in the red later, mike novogratz talks the economy and crypto and much more "squawk box oinl " is coming ri back that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven