we were just listening to raphael bostic there.e did not sound too concerned about the economy and its growth trajectory. you see slowness as do some other high-profile money managers. where is it if it is not in the data? >> it is with the consumer. when you have a percent on mortgages, when suddenly we have loans that are starting to crack and banks are tightening up and not extending any kind of credit to the consumer, small businesses, that is why we see that weakness. that is why the economy looks really bad and white we are pessimistic to some extent, but remember, we think that the fed -- they are setting themselves up. they can come in and slash rates 50 basis points, 100 basis points if we have in the bed december. vonnie: jerome powell maintaining optionality is not worth it? >> the reason that we had the s&p 500 up 5.9 percent, 6% on the week, it was amazing, but it had to do with the fact that officially friday with the big bump up. it jobs, we only saw 150,000 in growth and there were not the right kind of jobs, which

alix: that was raphael bostic speaking exclusively to mike mckee last week.s up to one of my favorite indicators, the federal reserve survey on banking conditions. we can break down consumers, industrial, commercial loans, we are looking at the international policy correspondent, mike, you guys are making fun of me because i'm super pumped for the sloos. who is right? mike: i am feeling very important! alix is always right! it is important to wall street and what raphael bostic said as he did not learn anything from it because he has already been talking to all of the bankers at his district and they have told him that they are diving in credit conditions. what is interesting to see is how much that they tighten. there are two measures, do they tighten a little bit or a lot? they have been finding a little bit for some quarters now -- tightening a little bit for some quarters now. have they started cutting things off? the interesting thing is those numbers come out only quarterly. we get the loan data from the federal reserve. what banks are making in terms o

we are now getting comments from raphael bostic. mike: the markets took those comments yesterday as a sign it maybe would not be higher for longer, longer. today, raphael bostic is joining in the conversation. this gets to what alix steel said about how confusing it is these days. he says in an essay published today by the atlanta fed that one of our economists calls the current economic picture a rorschach test of conflicting signals. you may see a dragon. someone else sees a butterfly. people will be talking about that analogy, i'm sure. he goes on to say something that matches what waller was saying yesterday. altogether, the research data, survey results, and business cuts tell me that tighter financial policy and business conditions are biting harder into economic activity. at the same time, i don't think we have seen the full effects of restrictive policy, another reason i think we will see further cooling of economic activity and inflation, so the latest fed speakers suggesting that maybe we are going to see the economy slow

we heard from raphael bostic of course. we spoke with him. keep in mind, he is more on the dovish side of the spectrum. really what he had to say is be patient. eight to 10 months is how he sees the current rates. and then maybe they can start talking about reducing rates. he is opening that window right now. have a look at what he had to say. >> today, my outlook is that we are going to stay on that slow and steady. and if we continue to do that, then i think where we are now will be sufficiently restrictive to get us to the 2% level 4 inflation. but there is still a lot that will happen between now and even the next meeting. yvonne: let's bring in mark cranfield joining us out of singapore to kick off our week. it continues this rally here. is this really the inflection point? we asked you that last week, but are we seeing more evidence of that? mark: yeah, i thing people look back on fridays payroll data and say that was when goldilocks came back to the party and it will be very hard to push her out the door again now. we have had a lot of

raphael bostic at 3:30 eastern. you will find out what the fed thinks later on. rieder, mike collins, anastasia amoroso, mohamed el-erian all to come. downside surprise on the payrolls report and an equity market that is positive 0.4%. tom: it will be fascinating to see how we get to your conversation with mohamed el-erian. the vix, i cannot fathom a 14 vix. the bond market is extraordinary from the peak just above 5%. good bloomberg mathematics. it is a standard deviation move from +2 down to=2. -2. lisa: i am watching the two-year more closely. this feeds into the fed's reaction function. people are viewing this as keeping the fed on hold and employing more cuts than they are signaling. tom: randy kroszner, one of our good financial economists. what is the second derivative of the jobs market? when it moves, does it move? randy: that is the key question. what does this portend for the trajectory going forward? we have seen a slowing pace, downward revisions, and will this be nice and smooth or will this portend something that is non-linear? difficult to predict

00 a.m., we get a look at the sentiment and speeches from dallas fed president lorie logan and raphael bosticl have an interview with mary daly at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today >>> and take an a look at futurs this morning the nasdaq down as well as the dow is off from early trades this morning we have david katz with more this morning >> good morning. >> what impacted the markets yesterday? the weaker than expected treasury or the comments from jay powell that were hawkish >> it was the comments from jay powell not willing to commit they are done raising rates. the market wants that commitment the economic data has been slower and less hot indicating the fed should be done, but powell and the fed are not willing to commit that you will hear comments today similar to that that maybe we have not done enough sdplchlt t >> the market is scared today. what is the word of the day? >> the word is optionalit yy. they will not stop raising rates. if you are a markets participant, you have to look beyond that. try to look at the economic data if the data is showing things are slowing and labor markets

raphael bostic of the fed earlier said he is confident inflation will slide down. bill ackman said he thinks the fed will cut sooner than the market expects. granted, there are critics that still believe there is too much optimism. for now, really it's just all the optimism. sonali: there have been and a lot of hopefuls potentially hitting the ideal market into next year. will the market to be receptive to companies looking to go public, particularly, if they are lossmaking? isabelle: whether the market is receptive remains to be seen. remember a rise in interest rates makes equities a morse -- a more attractive source of capital for many companies. for some a rise in interest rates is good and for some it is bad. talking about ipo revival after years of sleepiness it's already something. a trader yesterday was saying hopes of a soft landing is still there. we have kim kardashian's company, reddit, a microsoft backed cloud firm. look at various ipo indexes. it is slightly higher. still not up to its heyday, but the talk is there at least from dormancy the past two

in the u.s., the fed is signaling it is done, but you heard what raphael bostic had to say to mike mckee. the fed is sort of signaling possibly that maybe edging toward being done, but i don't know. you probably gathered what it is, has goldilocks beaten the bears? joining us now to discuss, abigail doolittle. and also beneath this heck of a -- denitsa tsekova. denitsa: we actually saw hedge funds floating on charts, at the second-fastest pace in two decades. we saw how big are the short bets in treasuries, the biggest since 2006. be positioning was very bearish, and it got very bearish, very fast. on the other hand, in terms of data and news events, we saw one after another in the span of three days. so obviously the reaction was exciting. going forward, this is something we've seen a couple of times, the last year during the depths of the bear market, whenever it got super bearish, we saw people flocking to cash, there was a quick rally afterwards. but what made it last? for example, ai was a big catalyst. alix: that is a really fair point. abigail, take that for the question of the da

imagine it will be part of the conversation mike mckee will be having later today sitting down with raphael bosticive conversation at 7:30 p.m. london time. plus we have an schools of interview here with the german vice chancellor and economy minister coming up at 9:10 a.m. u.k. time. just ahead we will speak to merck ceo vincent clark on the back of the company's results this morning. markets today starts right now. this is bloomberg. ♪ the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg markets: today." i am tom mackenzie live in

because before him, raphael bostic was talking about the fact that it looks good now and we may not haveny further. at this point, it is kind of hard to say what is going to convince the markets that the fed is one way or another since they don't want to go on record at this point. guy: we have jay powell on friday. we look forward to the data later on. michael johnson joining bloomberg technology, caroline hyde, ed ludlow coming up next. fantastic show. make sure you tune in. that does it for me. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network. >> bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i'm caroline hyde. ed: i am ed ludlow. this is bloomberg technology. caroline: after sta

when raphael bostic sat across from me and said we're sufficiently restricted it's a big deal that's a metric that chair powell has put out, once we get there we can stop. is mary daly saying now we're sufficiently restricted or not >> i'm saying i don't know yet. >> okay. >> i think that's okay. >> okay. >> i feel confident in saying it's not clear yet reasonable people can disagree here on whether we're sufficiently restricted, but i would remind the listeners, everybody's views depend on their outlook for the economy. and what i'm saying is that our outlook for the economy, while positive, still has open questions. will inflation really continue to come down as we need it too americans have been waiting too long for inflation to come back down to 2% it is our job and our commitment to remain vigilant on that battle until we can deliver on that promise over a reasonable time frame. >> i wonder if getting back down to 2% means in the '90s it took until like 1995 or something if the economy starts to worsen considerably, maybe we have our answer even if we're not all the way down the

also at 7:30, lori logan, and at 9:00, raphael bostic. today is day to have discussions between treasury janet yellen and the chinese vice premier in san francisco, ahead of next week's meeting between joe biden and xi jinping. how much can we lower the bar? is anyone paying attention to this meeting at all? jonathan: this one no, next week, yes. fair to say this lays the ground for next week. a lot of people accepting some kind of charm offensive from chinese officials with the united states, given the foreign direct investment data we have seen in the past few weeks, which is not encouraging for the chinese economy. tom: which is interesting, the balance of leverage here. and what this team focuses on. the university of michigan sentiment survey. how much do we see a deterioration in sentiment? we are seeing inflation coming down. we see signs the economy is slowing, especially given we are seeing some sort of forward look for inflation. tom: this is a little off the radar here -- jonathan: just keep talking, bramo -- tom: united kingdo

raphael bostic this afternoon, president of the atlanta fed. you can see the atlanta fed over my shoulder. he will maybe take a victory lap because he was the first that said the fed does not need to raise interest rates again. he was then joined by his colleagues and nothing happened at the last meeting. alix: good to get his perspective. really appreciate it. ism services falls to the lowest in five months. new orders tick up. you are seeing a strong equity rally and yields lower on the front end. we welcome tv and radio audiences. u.s. jobs numbers about 90 minutes ago showing a cooling in the labor market and rise in unemployment. here with us is julie su, acting u.s. labor secretary. what do you think of the numbers? what is your first take? sec. su: it shows steady growth. we have been saying that for months but this last month's number was 150,000 jobs created. it brings the total to 14 million. we continue to see unemployment under 4% for 21 months straight, the longest in over 50 years. guy: met of secretary, good morning. many america

have fed speak talking about pausing and adding support to that, we had loretta mester today and raphael bostic also, and the economic data is what was better-than-expected in some instances, particularly third-quarter gdp revisions which came in at 5.2%, better-than-expected for the quarter. haidi: let's get more insights from bloomberg's u.s. economist. he joins us now. what did we learn from today's release, and how does it or does it not change the calculus when it comes to the increasing gap that we are seeing for market expectations and what fed speakers are signaling? >> the q3 release does little to change either our understanding of the broader economy, or the fed path. q3 data was already a gangbusters quarter. if anything, what might be hiding below the surface is the fact that estimates of inventories, both retail and wholesale inventories for october came in below estimates, actually declining and setting the stage for some pretty serious headwinds in quarter over quarter growth space. what investors might have been thinking in terms of momentum building from the third quarter into

raphael bostic spoke with this friday and we asked him about it because they had already seen it andread it but i didn't learn anything. bankers have been telling me for weeks that they have been tightening credit. you can assume that this will show tightening credit. lisa: are we going to hear anything new from fed chair powell? does he want to say anything or push back against a loosening of financial conditions we have seen over the past week? do you think we will hear anything? mike: i don't know that we will hear anything definitive if the market re-prices we may get something that sends bond yields up or down. it doesn't matter because we are six weeks away from the next meeting which is what a number of fed officials have said friday when they started doing their tv interviews and speeches. there wondering why we need to tell you what we are doing now if we have six weeks. another jobs report will be coming up. let's wait and see. lisa: stick with us, we may get something that sends yields up or down. in the market right now, you can see the earlier rally and equities pull bac