atlanta fed president raphael bostic say he thinks a cut could be coming in the summer. >> i am of the view it will probably be appropriate if things go the way i expect for us to start reducing rates in the summertime. tom: treasuries flight in the session today after the rally yesterday on the back of the inflation print. 10 year at 425. they get in focus grabbing our attention after the governor ueda came out and set the target for the boj is not get inside, pushing back on one of his officials who suggested the picture was becoming clearer. ueda is giving a self optionality, but you were getting weakness in the japanese yen today. gold remains above $2000 per ounce and bitcoin still above 61,000 just down .3 of 1%. let's cross arbiter asia with avril hong standing by in singapore. what is sending up to you? avril: china, japan, but also the u.s., at the inflation print seems to be clearing key uncertainties for investors, and they are risk on today. asia stocks writing, decay -- nikkei leading the charge because almost 2% higher, interesting depended on the jobless rate, that slid,

. >>> raphael bostic now projecting one interest rate cut this year. adds the cut will likely happen later than previously expected. >>> disney responding to nelson peltz. in a statement, disney says peltz's perspective shows he should not be allowed on the board or anywhere near a creatively drive especially company. >>> anthropic is looking to rule out saudi arabia as more investors are looking at the company. >>> here is what to watch on the week ahead several data points on housing, including home sales and home prices and pending home sales. we get durable goods and earnings from walgreens and gamestop the biggest is core pce on friday >>> the dow and s&p off the best weekthis week. futures are inthe red. the dow would open 65 points lower. goldman sachs is sticking with the year-end s&p target of 5,200. the index could move 50% higher. this could lead to 6,000 the bank adds a.i. optimism is high, but mega cap tech stocks are far from bubble territory. let's talk more about this with jeff kilburg jeff, good morning good to see you. >> good morning

we have markets stateside with underwhelming comments from the fed speakers with raphael bostic lookingo one rate cut this year that is different where the markets rallied on the back of the fed saying they are on script to the rate cuts priced in the disappointment with the u.s. markets. today is looking at a rebound with the market open early on, as we look at the stoxx 600, we are drifting off all-time highs the german stocks in particular and also the italian names have been underpinning the strength with the european boards the heat map is evenly split let's look at the sector play this morning as we begin the session. we are mostly leaning toward the red. arrows signaling retreat basic resources is down .8%. so, too, is oil and gas. food and drink is drifting off .13% diageo is a weaker trade carmakers are down .25%. boeing, a headline story, and the issues with dave calhoun deciding to step down, seems to be something that may take a long time to execute with capacity across the sector industrials are sliding by itv is weaker today. construction is drifting we have given up a fra

plus, raphael bostic will speak. more fed speak during the week. the all key consumer confidence figures, the fed will be watching those. more fed speak with chris waller, who has been pretty outspoken. we get earnings as well. thursday, sentencing. the team says 50 years is only suitable for a super villain. for my final thought, let's take a closer look at the estimates for pce. deflator, court of later, expected to come in just as in the prior months, looking for a little bit of an increase in the core deflator. when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network.

raphael bostic now making noise he thinks only one fed rate cut this year.y should be doing? the first thing i'm suggest is that the 19 people around the table spend more time thinking about and describing what are the factors that can affect inflation? i will say i'm a little puzzled by what their framework really is we were led to believe last year that inflation was really, services inflation and wage inflation. new index they trotted out showed services x housing growing above 4% haven't heard about that for a while. listen, i am sympathetic to their challenge trying to navigate this economy as the world is on fire, but i think pre-committing as they do in these series of dots, each person saying how many times they cut three, six, nine months from now is deeply counter productive financial markets, productive. asset prices melting up but taking big risks with inflation. if you're living off your w-2 income, they're asking for inflation to move back higher and i think some of the data suggests it is, but, of course, if you have a large balance sheet this

calls around whether it's too fast for rate cuts and we heard from the atlanta fed president raphael bostic, repeating his forecast that we will see just one cut over the course of this year. we also heard from the federal reserve governor lisa cook, saying the fed really needs to take a cautious approach. take a listen. >> the risks to achieving our inflation and employment goals are moving into better balance. the risk of easing monetary policy to soon or too much is that it could allow above target inflation to become entrenched and halt the progress that we have seen. haidi: our next guest is still long u.s. equities and long the dollar. great to have you with us. we see signs that perhaps this run-up when it comes to exuberance in u.s. markets might have gone a little bit too far. do you think that theme of u.s. exceptionalism and outperformance across asset classes continues? >> right now there doesn't seem to be anything standing in the way. you've seen a little bit of pullback recently but given fed commentary last week, the markets just saw this as a sign that there's not really an

i want to talk about the fed hsbc forecasting three rate cuts yesterday, raphael bostic forecast onlyne rate cut where are you when it comes to fed rate cuts on the u.s. side and how important is that for the outlook for the s&p going forward? >> i think the fed has been very clear about the 2% inflation target i don't know how many rate cuts there will be this year. i would like to look at things on the bottom-up basis it is the impact on the equity market that i'm interested in. the higher rate environment and inflation and the bond yields being higher as well that is already felt in the large part of the equity market which satisis amassed by the ha of names in the magnificent seven. we are actually already starting to see the impact of that higher rate environment in a lot of the equity market which is lagging behind narrowness is showing that perhaps the largest companies are discounting that rate cut. >> you are mentioning the rise in bond yields higher cost to capital and the forward pe of the market the s&p in october was trading 18 teams forward pe. is that running too hot? >

raphael bostic talked about the possibility there might not be any.t would only take two members of the committee to move their dots up in order for us to move down from three cuts to maybe 2 four fewer. there is the possibility that could happen if they think inflation is not where they wanted to be. we've only had a month of really bad inflation news so we will see if that's what they do next week. it is now maybe a more live possibility than it was before. sonali: we thank you so much for keeping an eye on the data. will get more insight into markets and how they are being impacted by the economic data. we are joined by the head of u.s. equity strategy at socgen. when you look at some softening data, particularly among the consumer and you look at retail sales, do you start to worry about some sectors of the market that have been reaching new highs, finally hitting that mark in recent weeks? >> i think it's a very fair question. currently, the breadth is all in large caps. it started in small caps but the russell is down for the year. i don't think

a slew of fed speak today, including powell, michael barr, and atlanta fed president raphael bostic.fomc path forward, writing we continue to look for three rate cuts this year starting in june and continuing quarterly. that should prove supportive for broader wrist sentiment. with us around the table is sophia. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> what a week. on the program, our guest was talking about central banks almost tacitly accepting higher inflation. is that a you you would endorse -- is that if you you would endorse? >> they are starting to focus on other aspects of their mandates and are supportive of the idea that inflation has come down and they are making progress on that front. we are seeing policy shift. what is interesting is that central banks are cutting in tandem globally but we don't have a negative catalyst driving. for me, it's like central banks are taking out some insurance to help the growth side of their mandate, particularly in the u.s.. that is supportive of risk assets. >> do you think this could be explained by some kind of supply-side renaissance

raphael bostic and neel kashkari talked about that. it is possible they could move their dots.assume their dots were in the two cut range before. if they look at this data and think this will persist and you have to take it apart to know whether it will persist, the portfolio management thing we care about for the pce looks like it was up just .2% after 5.9% in january. it was not the stockmarkets fault. this time insurance, health and medical insurance up 1.4% after falling 1.1%. this is probably a catch-up to the turn of the year when insurance raise their rates so we are seeing a little bit there. those two areas are things that will be something the fed is watching. lisa: what we are seeing an initial jobless and continuing claims, people can get a job and are not getting laid off. it does not seem like that is an issue. on the ppi side can we say the narrative is we are seeing good three inflation in a way of a lot of people do not want to see? michael: that is a good way to put it. you did not say in a way people do not expect. it was expected we would see goods deflation

raphael bostic said that may be he might dial back his prediction for the fed would -- rate cuts. if we get a couple more that could change the dot plot and then you get a new plot from the mark -- for the markets to figure out. beyond that, you do not have a whole lot going on. i do not think that jay powell will give us a lot of direction in that regard either. that is what you would look for at this point. sonali: michael mckee and liz mccormick, a busy couple of days and hours. we will go to capitol hill where the fed chair is testifying to the senate banking committee. >> why shouldn't the fed act now for workers to lose their jobs rather than reacting after the fact? chair powell: we are well aware and very conscious of avoiding it. what we expect and what we are seeing is continued strong growth and labor market and continuing progress and bringing inflation down. if that happens and the economy evolves over that path and we do think that the process of carefully removing the restrictive stance and policy will and can begin over the course of this year. sen. brown: i know w

you mentioned today we will be austan goolsbee as well as raphael bostic. fed governor lee sukuk. chris waller on wednesday prayed fridays the big event which is ironic given markets are closed. as well as the fed chair jerome powell will be speaking. wednesday this is one of the most important events of the week. xi jinping america ceos. this to me is notable because usually he outsources it to other people. usually it is some sort of subject it and the fact that it's not is interesting. we get u.s. jobless claims. consumer sentiment data. it's not that important relative to what we get on friday given the fact we do get the pce deflator. >> let's get to the next 60 minutes or so. stocks coming off their best week of the year. terry haines on a shrinking gop majority and alex webb with the eu launching new probes into big tech. the s&p 500 coming off the best week of the year with the return of fed speak and another read on inflation around the corner. we see a stronger 2024 performance as investors look ahead to the final inflation yards. a slowing but not recessionary u.s. econ

almost echoing what we heard from raphael bostic from the atlanta fed.hen see. based on the revisions we have seen on wall street economist, feels like that is the direction of travel as well. lisa: that will be a fun new cycle. this is when you have to start talking about longer-term neutral rates. that is how you guide the market. i also wonder if this meeting, you are supposed to talk about the balance sheet. we have seen the balance sheet fall by $4.5 trillion. do they stop the runoff now even though things are heating up? can they signal without signaling that they are getting a little nervous? jonathan: i like the difference in how they talk about qe and qt. lisa: seth carpenter had a piece this weekend explaining why that is possible but it is completely different. at the same time, is it? jonathan: one is watching paint dry and the other is supersymmetry will save the world. coming up in the next hour, michael of barclays. george ferguson a bloomberg and james camp of eagle asset management. more to come from new york city, session highs. this is

he brought up a great point, this started with raphael bostic saying maybe it is going to be one and like what greg valliere said. he said of course we believe that officials when they say political considerations that affect their policies, but initial rate cuts on september 18 and 18th could be up. jonathan: let's say you're only going to go once. maybe it would make sense if you would avoid the election period altogether. lisa: you have come up with this this is that the fed is like a poker table trying to negotiate rate cuts and the timing and what they are consolidating around is they have the hawks saying we are going to cut once. june is a good time and that we are not going to cut again. we will give you your dovishness but to caucasian is later -- but take your hawkishness later. jonathan: i'm going off of what burner waller said which is that the grand compromise is either fewer or later. if they go earlier, you might end up with fewer. it might make sense to shift towards two. i have no idea where the economic it is going to be between here and then. i listen to commentato

we've already discussed this, atlanta fed president raphael bostic talk about the federal reserve feeling economy and wants to see progress on inflation before he feels confident about cuts. ahead of chair powell who will be testifying on capitol hill tomorrow. joining us on what the fed's next move means for real estate overall, commercial, multifamily, all of it, willy walker, chairman and ceo of walk walker and dunlap. nice to see you. >> great to see you. >> we came into the year with an expectation that there might be more aggressive rate cuts than certainly is going to take place. what has that already done, perhaps, n terms of the world that you're a part of, whether multifamily or commercial or anything else that relies on lower cost debt to potentially prosper? >> we ended '23 with people saying we have [ inaudible ] coming soon, rates will go down. this is great. the projection six rate cuts in the year starting in march. that's been backed up and now it's june and probably three rate cuts. what you had is people saying i'm going to wait for rates to come down and people capitul

jonathan: raphael bostic said something similar about how we could start cutting and stop.could cut interest rates and look around and see how it plays out. lisa: this is something people are speculating, that just because they cut once does not mean they are cutting cycle. that does not being priced into market because it looks like the kickoff date for an aggressive cutting session and that is one of the key questions. what is the terminal rate? jonathan: do think they could cut interest rates and just stop and not signal what comes next? joe: they could, it would be unusual. the fed cuts 75 basis points. it is possible. the cycle has been so unique. they could cut next year or cut more. i do not think it is likely. i believe monetary policy is tight and there is a reason the lags are longer. i am troubled by that inverted yield curve and i believe that is sucking capital out of the banking system and there is a lot of credit crunch type things happening beneath the surface. we are seeing more anecdotal evidence the private markets are under duress. they will have to go m