raphael bostic reaffirmed the higher for longer mantra. j.p. morgan boss jamie dinan lights a fire on succession talk. closer than ever. nvidia will discuss a new partnership. our exclusive conversation with the ceo. european stocks and u.s. stocks are near record highs. modest gains yesterday. nvidia will be a catalyst with earnings on wednesday. in the u.k., inflation data crossing early. futures pointing lower, european stocks pointing to losses around 3%. the spot index reaching the highest level since january of 2023. s&p futures are flat. let's flip the board and look cross asset. we've been hearing from the central bank reiterating higher for longer. messner saying it is no longer profitable, it is appropriate to go for around two. 433 on the benchmark 10 year and that is the bloomberg index. modest gains and vision affects. modest gainsetf speculation clod highs. will bitcoin break out of the range? copper is at 10,800. the commodity that rallied 28% year to date. keeping across commodities. let's cross over to asia. avril hong in singa

raphael bostic saying he is optimistic the fed will be able to cut later this year.ss claims data and gdp numbers at 8:30 let's have a conversation, deutsche bank. he said this, with the inflation above the fed's target, upside inflation risks top of mind we see trade policies adding another reason to keep the fed on hold and 2025. lisa: a lot of people talking about tariffs being inflationary. if trump's baseline 10% tariff represent a topping off he expects the additional 120 points added to core pce, this highlights just how much inflationary these policies could be. it is early days what goes through, but these are the calculations being put out there. annmarie: raphael bostic says we will have the conversation on cutting rates by the end of this year. by the end of this year we will know who will be in the white house. and that might be inflationary. jonathan: the difficulty they will have at the federal reserve we saw this play out in 2016 when trumpet come in there would be a big push to cut taxes. that will be the problem this time around. it doesn't matter w

raphael bostic still trying to analyze the data.e are seeing what's happening with the 10 year yield. may be a bit of buying into the bond market right now as we push forward to what's happening in earnings. let's have a look at some of the individual movers. palo alto networks coming off its lows. cybersecurity company posting revenue that is 11% -- 15% growth on a year on year basis, that is not the 20% to 30% revenue growth we are used to. we speak to the ceo later in the show. nvidia trading flat ahead of its all-important earnings tomorrow. what is key is the relationship with what they've been talking about in ai and taiwan, how dependent they are on tsmc to deliver the super chips. and interesting reporting on asml and tsmc. asml is off by 1.5% as we see the extrusive reporting showing that an event that china invades taiwan, both tsmc and the chip equipment making company asml could have a kill switch. they can remotely disable their chipmaking machines. we hear about the importance of taiwan from nvidia's ceo. >> taiwan is

decline although nowhere here as quickly as i would have liked, which is almost the same thing as raphael bosticold us today. i think the markets are going to have to take all of this on board and push the rate cut bets out which they have done, until maybe december, and wait to see if there is data that justifies coming in for sooner and deeper rate cuts. sonali: interesting. it looks like there is a coin toss idea when it comes to the september cuts. figure point, pushing out -- to your point, pushing out expectations broadly. if you do have stocks near all-time highs. you do have financial conditions fairly loose. is there any debate around whether we are at restrictive territory or not? michael: there is a debate about restrictive territory. we were talking about it in the meeting this morning. the financial conditions index is generally referring to asset prices. asset prices have benefited as conditions have gotten looser. as conditions get looser, the asset prices also rise. it is sort of circular. when you look at what people are paying in interest rates for mortgages or automobiles and

coming up shortly, michael mckee sitting down with raphael bostic.utes away. live from new york, you are watching bloomberg surveillance. ♪ olukai sandals capture the feeling of stepping barefoot s the perfect balance of instant comfort and lasting support. say aloha to olukai. anywhere comfort. anywhere aloha. (♪♪) and they're all coming? anywhere aloha. those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. jonathan: equity futures look a little like this. a by 0.1%. on the nasdaq we are positive. the longest winning streak going back to february. it looks a little something like that is following three weeks of decline. foreign-exchange after, the biggest going back to march. but 08 point 63. a tough story. ivana's president has died in a helicopter crash. he was seen as a candidate -- and elections will take place in the next 50 days. it will be quite the 50 days for that country. annmarie: they need to go to elections. in that kind of circumstance, they can lash out. we are

raphael bostic saying maybe one cut later this year. lori logan is looking for data as they all are. next week, we get a lot of it that could influence peoples thinking on the fed. probably more influencing people in the markets. ppi on tuesday. and jay powell speaking on tuesday. the big news of the week is the cpi report on wednesday, he will not have seen that. he will probably not say a lot different. we also get retail sales. we will see if you help at all the u.s. economy. a lot of banks think we might see an improvement in retail sales. but the forecast is not for good news. the cpi forecast on the right-hand side, we are not expecting a big change, but we expect it to go back down again. that is going to be what the fed is looking for. at least some progress with all of these fed speakers are looking for. progress toward 2%. >> michael always brings us through what you need for the week. i feel like you targeted the hotspots. second of all, i'm helping the economy, shopping a lot these days. third of all, i don't feel like the a

raphael bostic spoke with michael mcgee the state of rates. >> i think the new status is likely to beigher than what we have people have known over the last decade. we will have to see. sonali: you were the one early this year, late last year, that started to pitch the idea of going out on the curve more. if you were an investor short-term and long-term, you felt that whiplash. what is the recommendation today? >> i think the recommendation is over the rest of the year we will see the upside surprises we have gotten in the inflation data begin to get worse. we think inflation will be steadily decreasing for multiple reasons. we will start seeing shelter inflation coming down. there is a good case to be made to between now and the end of the year, we will see it happen. we think the fed will be data driven and the market will begin to expect more rate cuts coming. we have three cuts penciled in for this year. the market and the fed needs more data. we expect the data will show distillation in the pace of inflation. that would be the signal for the fed to begin to move towards normalizi

we will have michael mckee speaking to raphael bostic and beretta master. health of the consumer will be in focus. macy's and lows earnings on tuesday and pmi's on thursday. a lot of news ahead to for us that does it for now. same time same place real yield next week. this is bloomberg. safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. a slow network is no network for business. the answer is that's why more choose comcast business. and now we're introducing ultimate speed for business, our fastest plans yet. we're up to 12 times faster than verizon, at&t, and t-mobile. and existing customers could even get up to triple the speeds at no additional cost. from

raphael bostic reiterating the message that we've heard all week from fed officials.t. jay pelosky is still with us. a beat from you on why you dismissed the idea of fewer rate cuts and potentially the prospect of a rate hike as being damaging to the bullish thesis? jay: we don't pay much attention to the fed. it creates a lot of headlines and a lot of news. we don't care about the news. we care about the reaction to the news. sorry. [laughter] for us, it is a situation where we are focused on earnings. earnings drives stocks. the reality is that earnings are coming in better than expected because we have a strong economy. as long as that will continue stocks will be fine. when you look at q1 results, earnings estimates going forward the next 12 months have been raised to an all-time high. clearly, the market believes that companies are going to be able to continue to make money. as long as that happens, we are going to be fine.we don't have tremendous upside because we are fully priced. upside is earnings growth plus multiple expansion. we had multiple expansion and

all this coming after the atlanta fed president raphael bostic saying that many measure s of inflationoving back to the target range. joining me with more is roger ferguson. roger, good morning. >> good morning, nice to be with you. >> we get the second reading on gdp later today. i want to ask you about the gdp report. what does it mean to the fed? >> i think this is one of a settle thset of building blocks. bostic says they are many months away from making a decision to cut if one occurs at all. i look at this and tomorrow's data as basically another building block, but not necessarily definitive one way or the other. they want to see many months before they decide what to do. this is one of many months of data to make a decision. >> i want to be clear. the estimate for the second is 1 1.2%. if it comes in softer, it would lead to the cuts a lot of people are looking for? >> it might. the main thing is timeframe. i don't think the market should get wrapped up in a done deal. you heard from bostic. he is looking at the quote fourth quarter. others are saying several months and many mo

we hear from the atlanta fed president raphael bostic this afternoon. >>> and a market alert with thegreen this morning. the nasdaq is the best and the dow would open up 20 points higher for more on the trading day head, let's bring in lizzie evans at evans may wealth with $1.2 billion in assets under management >> good morning, frank. >> big day after nvidia earnings we see the big stock popping on the nasdaq what is your "wex" word of the day? >> my word is pace in indiana, it is the greatest weekend in sports for the year i expect on sunday that we will see a record setting pace at the indianapolis 500 and you have the indiana pacers in the eastern conference finals with the game straddling the indianapolis 500 what does that have to do with the market we heard from clients multiple times this week whether the feverish pace can continue and i think after nvidia's knockout report, the answer is yes. >> you are sold on the a.i. story. it would be hard not to be after that report. my question is when you look at nvidia trading at 41 times forward earnings where a year ago it was 61 ti

haidi: fed governor raphael bostic saying the fed will start looking at cutting, but they need to see further disinflation and some elements they are seeing are still quite concerning. so again, the messaging is that they are not in a hurry. they want to see more. not going to be something that gives joy to the markets. the nikkei is off by 1% right off the bat. weakness across the topics -- topix. with the levels we are looking at, and perhaps now the question, as is our question of the day, is what happens if we get to 160 on the yen? will lucian of the risk of intervention as well? weakness across the board. but the first couple of minutes-of-in korea, the tech earnings overnight, the legs of hp were quite positive and we could see some follow-through in the asian session with tech and other related names. the kospi seeing some underperformance, though not quite as steep as the levels we are seeing elsewhere. paul: we just opened in australia as well. staying open here. the market is kind of flat. but bhp has began trading, seeing weakness, off 0.3% after bhp walked away from its b

raphael bostic said he's in no hurry to cut rates, saying he, too, would prefer to wait longer while forecasting a single rate cut in the fourth quarter. now, federal reserve governor christopher waller also preached composure, telling cnbc in an exclusive interview he does not see a cut on the cards at the moment. >> i don't think there's a lot of upside risk. like i said, things could change and rate hikes could be on the table under some scenarios in the world. right now i don't see that as the case. right now we stay there for months. if we get enough data going to right way, then we could think about cutting rates later this year, beginning of next year. >> meantime ecb president christine lagarde says, quote, there's a strong likelihood rates will be cut on the assumption data reinforces confidence that rate inflation will return to the 2% target in the immediate term. in an interview, lagarde said she is, quote, really confident inflation is under control. our guest is still with us, of course. so we're getting the divergent comments coming from the ecb and the fed. we know ch

lizzy: we also heard from raphael bostic who said he is hopeful price pressures will normalize. did you get much reassurance from the data? >> i think you've got moderate growth, consumers pushing back against price pressures was one of the key takeaways we saw in the data so far. you are still seeing an upward trend, but you are not seeing i think any indication that we have got the breadth of acceleration, so maybe there is assurance from both of us to, but as we've been hearing from fed officials what you really want to see is a prolonged trend of pulling inflation for fed officials to really be happy. at this point, they want to see more cooling in the pce gauge, at least several consecutive months of cooling in inflation data before they are ready to cut interest rates. i think it is still safe to say that it is point we need more data to actually give us a fuller picture. lizzy: we thank you for that analysis as we look ahead to the data today and tomorrow. the fed's crucial inflation gauge, pce, coming tomorrow, but let's get back to politics specifically in south africa

i want to bring you to raphael bostic. if things don't go that way, i'm not locked into policy but if they go that way, he could see a cut by the end of the year. annmarie: i love how that is the most dovish thing you can get, but this week has shown us that there is a difference between relief and surprise. the data that we got was relieved. surprised was the first quarter. this week was relief, the market maybe starts to see buying and it backs off with fed speakers who don't change their tune. jonathan: same thing, here are the lyrics to the song that we all know, takes longer to gain confidence. barkan, i think it will take more time. williams, i don't expect to get a greater confidence in the near term. what does greater time mean? a couple of prints? three months, five months? dani: you need to see a trend and the data is not linear at this moment. it's about seeing the trend and this is the problem with the data. to some degree the measures are outdated, accounting for a monolithic economy. we have talked about this

in addition to chair powell and president barkin, atlanta fed president raphael bostic saying despite major concern. the latest read on consumer prices this week showed shelter costs still persistent, rising for a third straight month. so what's next for the property market? joining us is housing wire's logan. thank you for being here, logan. really appreciate it. so does the housing market need to see some significant cracks in the labor market for affordability to come down? is one purely necessary for the other? or is there a way to bring down housing affordability, as we've seen some disinflation in other areas of the economy, without labor really starting to crack? >> well, the only time we really had disinflation or deflation in housing was in like 2010 for a few months, so when people lose their jobs, they can't rent, so if you're looking for deflation, then a job loss recession can give that to you. if you're looking for disinflation, you have to build as many apartments as possible to pull down the growth rate of rent inflation. it's rare in america to have rent inflation go

what are you looking for, given the fact that raphael bostic him out and said we are human, this is life is the reality of the moment we are in. claudia: i don't want to hear from them. i want the next cpi release, the one after that, the labor market. honestly, that is what they are filtering. in the last few days we have heard a multitude of ways to say that we are not confident, we need more data. it makes sense, i complete the follow being predictable, responsible, but they are just saying the same thing over and over again. annmarie: you talked about it being much ado about nothing, but target overnight cut prices. do you see deterioration in the consumer? claudia: i don't see it. we have seen moderation. this is why it's dangerous for the fed to wait so long, to some extent, because we are not the economy of last year in terms of firing on all cylinders. there are more risks to the downside on the labor market in particular. you do see signs of is faltering, but those are risk cases. we don't see them in the baseline. but you know, the labor market, it's not pointed in the best dir

. >>> raphael bostic told investors last night he is looking at the fourth quarter as the time when thectually may start thinking about reducing interest rates. fourth quarter. bostic said many measures of inflation on his dashboard, are in his view, moving back into the target range. tomorrow at 8:30, we get the latest read on core pce. that's the fed's preferred measure of inflation. uncertain about the rate path driven to the yields at the high elf level. for more, let's bring in mark at bank of america securities. it is interesting, mark, there is a lot of factors right now. auctions. that should be the bottom line is whether we can sell the stuff at certain yields. i guess that's where the rubber meets the road a lot of the time. then we get economic numbers and we get inflation numbers. it looks like we're slowing a little. like gdp is not supposed to be rip roeraring. that looks to get an inflation cut, but not until presumed a downward trajectory. >> we have seen th basis points up for the year. we think this is due to a combination of factors. it is due to some better than expe