rasmussin's tracking of likely voters polled between september 10-11 has obama at 46%, romney 45%. abc news washington post poll between september 7-9, obama 49%, romney 48%. >> question. the post convention polls of likely voters range from a 6% lead for obama to a statistical tie. what explains the volatility of these polls? patrick? >> well john, first there is different pollsters and sampling. but all of the polls basically, except rasmussin, whose latest poll even has romney ahead, what they have got. >> on what count? >> about three or four points ahead nationally, but it is an out liar sort of, it is the only one that does. romney is behind in seven of the eight major states, behind in ohio, florida, virginia, colorado, those big states. >> that the ruinous. >> secondly obama is at 53% approval and third in the head to head polls the average in real clear politics puts obama ahead about 4 points. that is very, very tough to overcome and it is hard to see what's going to bring romney around to overcome it. >> what are the three states he has to show well in? >> romney's got t