. ♪ rubenstein'sd exclusive interview with hedge fund heavy rate ray dalio, later this hour.s jp morgan pacific portfolio's manager joins us in a couple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg markets. over the last few days we have seen a bid to cross equity markets. have a look at this. we are calling this, too little, too late. perhaps that was the sense two days ago, addressing what carrie lam was doing. asia-pacific,is the bottom panel is japan. to see that happen the next two days on your top panel. so there is the question, is it too late to avoid a double death? our next guest expects this to translate into positive over the next six months. pacificus is jp morgan portfolio manager, aisa ogoshi. tell us about your rationale and what you are making about the volatile and mysterious times currently? aisha: it is, indeed. the low-growth uncertainty environment is very favorable for us, we focus on quality companies on growth in the region. these companies, we try to look through the cycle, i.e. looking for structural growth, som

we were listening to ray dalio speaking to david rubenstein.rime minister boris johnson is about to speak in the north of england. let's go live. everythingn: for you're going to do. this is part of a big effort by the government to deliver on the priorities of the british people. as you may have seen yesterday, i hope you saw it, there was a big announcement about more spending for the mhs, 20 new hospital upgrades above the $34 billion we are putting into the nhs. we are leveling up education funding around the country so all schools get an uplift, both primary and secondary schools. in my view, policing safe streets is the absolute bedrock of society. it is what drives a successful and productive economy. it gives people the confidence to invest, to improve their neighborhoods. safe streets are absolutely vital for our country. it is you and the police were delivering safe streets. i want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for what you do. i used to be the mayor of london. police commissioner for london. i know the incredible work the

overall, you hear ray dalio say there's a 25% chance of a recession.an this be avoided or is this beingnomic slowdown brought forward by the trade war? >> eventually, we will have a recession. this year, it seems unlikely to me. 25%, it's a lower probability. but we should not be too optimistic according to the weather. [laughter] mr. dalio has a point when he says there are limits to monetary policy and what central banks can do. but i would make a distinction between europe and the united states. first of all them a they have a much healthier economy in this moment and the data has been mostly positive. there are some contradictions, but mostly positive. europe is quite different. we are seeing a technical recession in germany and in italy as well. france has been in a healthy position. there is also difference -- another difference between the u.s. and europe is the margins central banks in u.s. have are much wider where in europe they are negative. my short answer is, eventually, we will have a recession. i don't think it's likely in the next month

nejra: that was ray dalio, founder of bridgewater associates. joining us for the hour is peter schaffrik, global macro strategist/analyst, rbc europe. great to have you on the show. let's start with a move in bond yields. paradigm shift or a result of positioning? at this stage it is a combination of a number of things. positioning is one of them. investors in the u k and abroad, pretty much everyone was of the opinion the fed, and soom the on. everyone was in the same kind of trade. that we that surprised get a counter move. i think it happened yesterday is positive news, we had hong kong, the china talks, hawkish comments from ecb speakers. together,hings came good data out of the u.s. i would not say it is a paradigm shift just yet. is it thatmportant the u.s. data continues to be strong? a lot of times good news is really bad news for markets considering the fed has to act on it or not. in the u.s. by and large has been relatively decent, and we have been stressing this for a while. the story in the u.s. is similar to what is abroad, with le

bridgewater associates cochairmen and co-cio ray dalio spoke with david rubenstein about how centralnd. know, recession, you there are two negative quarters of gdp and we will be covering, i think, fairly close to that level. there a certain variation around it, but the bigger things are a combination of the absence of effectiveness of central-bank policy, so a hope we can talk about those, together with the wealth gap. a large wealth gap. so when the next downturn comes, what that will look like socially and politically and so on. the elections, which is an issue between capitalists and socialists or the rich and poor. in ahe emergence of china relationship to the united states. factorsur factors are that have not existed since the 30's. i think they are unique. when we get into the question of the recession, it's about how that will affect the other things. david: in the investment world, your firm was quite well-known sometime before the last recession. but in the last recession, your ,irm performed extremely well maybe better than any other major hedge fund. up 28% or something l

balance of power" david westin will be having a special ceo,rsation with starbucks and they also have ray dalioubenstein in conversation. a lot in the next 60 minutes on bloomberg tv. you do not want to miss it. here's a look at equity markets in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: from downtown chicago, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. we are waiting to hear boris johnson addresses country. he will talk about the fact that he has had three defeats in parliament. in the meantime, i'm in chicago to stop -- to talk to starbucks ceo kevin johnson. you can hear the festivities in the background. 2:00.nterview comes up at we will also be talking with linda mcmahon, autonation ceo, and ray dalio. in the meantime, let's get a check on the markets with kailey markets with kailey leinz in new york. kailey: up and up in a big way. the risk rally continuing for the second day. all of the major averages up 1.5%. the dow up 400 points. the s&p and the nasdaq higher. it is the semi stocks

proposals include entries from ray dalio and stanley fischer.hing in common -- they all powerful central bankers taking a more junior role and collaborating with governments. that type of stimulus used to be taboo but right now at is a big threat. and an emerging consensus is that helicopter money will be needed and central banks can't deliver it alone. carl tannenbaum from northern trust is still with us. prior to northern trust, he led the federal reserve's risk section. what do you think of the idea that the fed may have to work with a certain amount of money that is ok'd by congress to stimulate the economy further? as long as the helicopter is hovering over my home, i am in favor of that strategy. are closeuthorities to being out of dry power or out of dry power. forms ofnative monetary policy are not nearly as effective and the fiscal policy has an opportunity to get into all of the cracks and address specific opportunities in the economy. it is likely that if we do have a slippage, it will have to be the fiscal side and not the monetary t

we had stanley fischer and ray dalio introducing a situation where the government would borrow moneynd the central bank would buy that debt in order to finance it. does that make sense to you? roger: the individuals involved our friends, respected economist . super thinkers. one has to be careful to respect the independence of the fed. it might be that we need more fiscal stimulus, perhaps we did earlier. perhaps in europe, more fiscal stimulus. you do not want to get to the place where it looks like the central bank is monetizing that. they should be separate decisions. is this the time for fiscal stimulus? i would argue in the u.s., probably not right now. a separate and independent monetary policy that takes the fiscal situation into consideration. david: we see in the u.s. and europe a lack of inflation. is there a danger in that that we get lulled into a sense of complacency? roger: what we are seeing about inflation is an interesting dynamic. central banks feeling they have not achieved their inflation targets, 2%. they are debating, should we continue to lower rates. the citiz

paul: we have a quote or observation from ray dalio saying he sees a 25% chance of recession.ed about the consumer's ability to insulate the u.s. economy against that, but how about the fed? is it getting a bit limited in its ability to insulate as well, especially considering a lot of the problems it faces are political ones? >> absolutely. very limiteded is in terms of their arsenal to continue to support the economy and i would agree the risk of recession is quite high as we look up to 2020 and the on. i would actually assign an even higher probability, near 40% of recession in 2020 and the on. we are seeing very clear signs the u.s. economy is losing momentum at a relatively rapid pace, so that should be putting extreme pressure on the fed to act, but as you mentioned, there are still and number of fed officials that appear quite hesitant to engage in additional rate cuts, pointing to a still moderate growth rate, at least in the rearview mirror, if we look at that 2% growth rate in the second quarter. paul: thank you very much for joining us. up, the u.s. national economi

ray dalio is totally killing it. david: let's be frank. certain age of which i am reminiscing about woodstock. it's the closest thing to going to woodstock, i think. i've never even thought about it. alix: it's something about the davos lights now. and weird coats. david: very weird. like joseph. [laughter] coming up, hurricane dorian batters the bahamas. the east coast braces for impact and we're going to talk about how the storm is affecting logistics and talk with craig fuller. alix: and if you're jumping in your car, go ahead and stay with us. you can go to bloomberg radio, heard across the u.s. and sirius xm channel 119 on the bloomberg app. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ david: hurricane dorian batters the bahamas with evacuation orders in effect for much of the southeast coast of the united states wreaking havoc with people's lives and with commerce and shipping. we welcome from tennessee, craig fuller. he's freightwaves' c.e.o.le freightwaves provides news, data and commentary on freight markets. craig, thanks so much for joinin

matt: we have heard a lot of talk from economists and market participants, ray dalio for , as well astanley fischer about the possibility of some kind of helicopter money. talking about fiscal monetary cooperation. is that what you expect, or think would be a better idea for stimulus? dr. varnholt: i would say two things, the world economy and the german economy are not in such a dire place. unemployment is record low, inflation is nowhere to be seen. there is one angle you may challenge the necessity for such urgent measures. having said that, if you want fiscal spending, i take the pragmatic route and i would not call it helicopter money because that is one of those misnomers which creates the wrong type of discussion. giving money to the people, and the united states did that under that was a junior, powerful political decision, but more importantly that money was spent in the next month, and multiplied through the usual consumption cycles. that is the power of fiscal spending on demand. any: absolutely, given fiscal stimulus, i promise i would spend it immediately. you'll spend mo

you had ray dalio say the rise of china is equivalent of the rise in the british empire.on both sides. this is what people like ray are saying. maria: that's because in my view, art, for too long ceos were more interested in getting their products in the hands of 1.4 billion people in china than they were about protecting their products and that's why the chinese stole all of their intellectual property. >> entirely correct. we spent much more than a decade thinking if i could sell into the chinese market, how much more profitable could i be. is there a possibility to find middle ground? can we say to ourselves let's get a smaller deal done with china down and then move to try to et get china to change the way they do business. does it make sense to keep the conversation going it feels like we're all in or all out on this. is there a middle ground. >> i think you could have a holding pattern, just going to keep things a little more stable. when you heard about for instance the potential restriction of investment in china, on the other side, the chinese are undergoing capi

. >> one comment going back to ray dalio, i apologize, i've been looking at this while we have been talkingre time. >> oh, great >> he didn't -- >> could you have kept that to yourself, maybe? >> he didn't change his view. >> i said it at 6:00 a.m. >> 25% one year and 25% the next year and now we get close to -- >> you said -- >> instead of a year and a half. >> 6:00 a.m., i said, i look what changed here is the time frame you're referencing, not his odds of a recession. >> i think it hasn't changed at all. anyway, i want to make that clear -- >> he went from the end of 2020 to -- from the end of 2020 to mid-2020. >> this is now -- >> he says 25% per year was -- 25% chance of a recession per year, which 40% chance by 2020 would be in the same ballpark. >> what he said was 40% chance by the election. >> right. >> i think he's been in that submarine and he's been coming up too quickly you know what happens when you come up too quickly from really deep, you get like the bends and your nitrogen, oxygen is depleted i don't know lori -- >> smart man. >> thank you thank you. a lot of billionaires