we have a lot of power players what will happen >> reporter: good to see you yes, we will talk to ray dalio, founder of bridgewater, about new warnings on debt crisis, where we are in the debt cycle and also big warnings on what is happening in the political landscape and of course the changing world order around china as well. and we'll talk to toto wolf sdlt sdltf. he is part owners mercedes team and he will talk about the explosion of the formula 1 in the united states. some of the ratings and business issues that surround it. really looking to both of these conversations. >> and we know just how much of a fan you are of auto racing and specifically formula 1 all right, we'll see you in a few moments here >>> but breaking news out of the new york federal reserve and for that we go out to steve liesman who has the latest >> some guardedly good news out of the new york fed and their survey of consumer expectations. one year ahead inflation expectations falling 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%. that is the lowest in two years. and i can tell you this is not about just gas prices. some of the h

ray dalio one of the high-profile speakers was very much focused on the health of the u.s. economy.rticular when you combine what he calls sticky inflation, we have seen it elevated. then also the impact of high real interest rates. he said we could be at the beginning of a big late cycle debt crisis where we are producing too much debt and at same time have a shortage of buyers. here's what he said about the impact when you have elevated interest rates for a long time. >> interest rates are now at a level that they will stay up at they will not rise much. the consequences of that are going to be a rieger -- weaker economy owing forward. it doesn't have to be a big downturn because of the household sector, but it is a balance sheet type recession. shery: soros fund management is also seeing problems ahead for u.s. banks. annabelle: this was another speaker at the event. the cio said to expect more bank failures. the problems and stabilize for now at least it appears, but she was telling us at the event that there are more problems under the surface. she also shared what she sees as

tom: that was billionaire ray dalio on the u.s.big cycle debt crisis at bloomberg's invest in new york event. coming up, lionel messi turns down a huge saudi offer, $400 million. instead he will play for a u.s. team backed by david beckham. we discussed that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are at the beginning of a very classic late cycle, late big cycle debt crisis. >> private credit is now 1.4, $1.5 trillion and a lot of companies will suffer under the weight of interest payments. >> there is a true reset in value in real estate. now is a great time to be with an active manager in real estate. >> i think the next big opportunity is in women's sports. women's soccer should go from 50 million to 500 million. >> this discussion is going on if you travel the world and everybody is fixated on it, because the united states is the benchmark. >> the most important thing is how we take care of ourselves. that we get strong and raise productivity. francine: key voices at the bloomberg invest summit taking place in new york. lionel messi h

i have see this from time magazine from ray dalio. the world on the break of great disorder.peter, my antennas raise what is the great disorder we're getting ready for and how might it impact everyone watching this show? >> ray dalio has been worried about this for a while and what he has been focused on there are three things that happen now freak him out, because they happened on a scale since the 1930s, soaring debt and inflation, historic gaps in income and wealth, and now great powers flirting with world war. so in his mind this is setting up 1930s scenario. he has been warning raising political polarization, potentially civil war and i think, he doesn't necessarily connect it to this but i think what holds those three things together is that we have had a massive increase in the size of government especially in the federal reserve, to the point where they dominate markets, you know, many conversations that you're having about the macro economy we're not talking about companies anymore, right? we're talking about the fed. we're talking about government spending, stimulus

. >>> by the way, you know who has thoughts on this bridgewater founder ray dalio. on that programming note he'll join us during this hour on monday he made a bold call today saying the u.s. is at the beginning of a large big cycle debt crisis. obviously, had thoughts on where the dollar's reserve status goes from here. ray dalio on "squawk on the street" monday >> that's evolution of his long-standing thesis. >>> meantime, google cracking down on office attendance and asking fully remote workers to reconsider their work status that story after the break. >>> we're watching signet jewelers q2 below estimates the ceo telling us in the last hour that increasing macro pressures on consumers add more price points and deeper discounting are weighing on the quarter and the outlook. but she sees some bright spots toward the end of the year, for instance, when engagements should pick up again wh on "squawk on the street." dow is holding onto a 70-point gain an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users

shery: ray dalio saying the u.s. debt crisis with too much debt and too few buyers. the founder of bridgewater associates spoke exclusively to us at the bloomberg best conference. >> in my opinion, we are at the beginning of a very classic late cycle debt crisis when the supply and demand gap, when you are producing too much debt, and you have also a shortage of buyers, what is happening now is we have to sell all of this debt , do you have enough buyers? there are changes now in terms of the quantities in the world that are being held by large investors around the world that have lost money in these treasury bonds and so on, and then there are geopolitical changes having an effect. some countries are worried about sanctions, and then there is this deal little shift. so when i look at the supply and demand issue, there is a supply and demand issue for that debt. there is a lot of debt, it has to have a high enough interest rate create so a crisis? if we continue down this path and terms of what looks likely over the

colleagues will speak to ray dalio on monday. later on monday, we will hear from bank of america ceo brian moynahan don't miss that at 19:00 cet >> the first guest of the show is neil shaw from edison wonderful to have you with us. i looked at the price action we had and stock market this week one thing which is interesting is despite the headline risks we talk about with geopolitical and economic and central banks with monetary policy, the vix continues to make new lows there is not a lot of underlining volatility with the s&p. why is that the case >> i think a lot of it is technical. some of it is the macro is directionless. i characterize it as being in the eye of the storm low volatility is not a window of what is to come i think when i talk to investors, there is a high degree of caution. they are doing their work. they are looking for interesting companies. their sense is as we move into the second half this year and second and october, th -- septe and october, there will be an adjustment >> i read a stat this week saying i

plus, global money flocking to india as narendra modi of knobs with elon musk and ray dalio on his u.s. state visit. haslinda: pretty mu get -- pretty muted in markets post-powell. the president of the boston fed weighed in as well saying the bar is higher for rates to go higher from just a few months ago, and markets tried to make sense of that. take a look at where we are. this is a quiet day. china, taiwan, as well as hong kong on holiday. take a look at we are in terms of the kospi. it is in positive territory and in focus is japan. it is consolidating today, but bear in mind it is seeing massive gains in june. some are saying we could see a 9% upside from here. in the fx market, we are seeing gains for the ruby, the paci, as -- the rupee, the peso, as well as the yuan. keep in mind, you on weakness is that to persist. bank of america saying it could get to 7.4 to the dollar by the third quarter. we are seeing yields rising in the philippines, as well as yields falling in australia. just to put it in perspective, inversion in the 2's and 10's extending further for the first time si

colleagues will speak to ray dalio coming up at 17:00 cet >>> don't miss brian moynahan later today at9:00 cet >>> in banking news, ubs has completed the takeover of credit suisse it comes as the company is imposing restrictions on bankers. according to sources speaking with the financial times, ubs has drawn up two dozen red lines out lining activities for staffers, including a ban on new clients from high risk countries and launching new products without approval from managers this is the reaction in ubs stock. up 1.2%. credit suisse still trading up 1.3% you have to think at some point it will stop trading now the takeover is complete julianna, what is interesting is ubs management imposed the red lines and tells you there is a concern internally and to the external world the toxic culture that prevailed at credit suisse and this is the way to say no. >> and ubs is concerned with how shareholders feel about the stock moving forward with the integration risk that lies ahead. >> absolutely. that is one reason why ubs is back at 18.5 post the announcement we reached the 20 handle, but

. >>> we have two big interviews on monday at 11:00 a.m ray dalio will talk about the debt cycle, bankingre. and plus toto wolff, bill union th billionaire invest to have and part of the racing team will be joining us both rarely talk, and i think it will be interesting to hear what they have to say >> and in addition to that, it will be a packed week. we made it through it week which was sort of a vacuum for data and fed speak, but we'll get cpi, the fed, ecb, and oracle and amd chip day >> kroger earnings hard to call it really a bull market until get through some of the big catalysts. >> and now time for the judge. >>> welcome to the half time report this hour the return of the bull market, at least technically but is it really back. we'll debate that with the investment committee s&p 500 now 20% off the october lows joining me joe, stephanie and bill and kevin we have fresh highs of the year, but as you see as carl was just saying, we did back off 4300, we're going for the first close before that level since august

ray dalio said he remains bullish. >> you have a reformer, a radical reformer, who has the ability to transform and the popularity to transform it >> $98 million emerging market, known for taking that long bet on adoni said he has increased his exposure to india to $13 billion. then i ran into roger ferguson, guys, former ceo of tiaa today on my way to d.c and he acknowledged the opportunity in india, but said as an investor it's too complicated. that could be a challenge and opportunity for the indian delegation >> seema, keeping track of all of the announcements and sectors we're talking about today, trade, defense, space, ai, you've covered a couple regarding ge you've got to wonder what they're saying right now in beijing, just days after the president called xi a dictator and we're not letting them get high-powered chips. >> i imagine the deal getting most attention in the east is that ge announcement not only selling engines to the indians, but announcing they will co-produce these military fighter jet engines in india and give the country their ip. this is technology that would

in here >> brian good to see you again you raised the point i was going to ask about when we saw ray daliot some point we'll have a financial crisis or "the wall street journal" writing that powell has to choose between fighting inflation and a bank event, if you will you sound on the one hand, concerned that we should be taking it more seriously, but on the other hand saying it's not going to be systemic enough, that we can keep resuming the inflation fight, and i just wonder if you can elaborate a little bit on that and which one the fed should give more weight to right now >> i think at the end of the day, we have a recession predicted for starting the third quarter, and first quarter of next year and that's a mild recession and that was the amount of stimulus put into the economy in connection with the pandemic both fiscal and monetarily and they're adjusting that out of the system so the strength of the american consumer and if you look at our consumers, they are still growing spending and albeit verse you a 10% rate, and so the economy is slowing down. they're guiding it down and it

ray dalio developed the theory. he expanded it, uh, the fall theory.s the most famous and gulden. it was used as it then passed to the british, how the british went down and now, as part of his analysis on the americans, he clearly said the american empire is going down, the chinese is going up. what are the main criteria for sunset. this is when the cost of maintaining an empire is huge the number of bases exceeds your income, becomes unsustainable when a new rising power challenges you. you start printing even more money to invest in your infrastructure, and this is where your state falls, because money depreciates and you collapse. here the americans are now on this path. they are trying to start an arms race with the chinese on an equal footing, they can’t do it without money. the most important thing - no, technologies, when and the last time large large ships commissioned atomic weapons for 50-60 years - these are naval warheads, which means ground-based. they do not have soil complexes. the chinese are just building infrastructure in series. the

don fitzpatrick of soros as well as ray dalio of bridgewater and brian moynihan up nick of america, a host of speakers to set the stage. tom: it sets the stage to me talking to someone tomorrow. lisa: it is always setting the stage for tom keene. today is the bank of america tech conference. two people will be speaking. it is nvidia's world? romaine: it is not --jon: it is not, it is tk's world. lisa: you brought it on yourself. jon: been, you have heard the gloom and the doom on the equity market, the bears aren't changing their minds with the people who are constructive on the equity market want to leave tech behind and rotate to sickles, are you pushing back at both those themes? >> definitely. right now, both are going up. especially the increase in earnings forecast. it is shocking for the bears. it is a reflection of this resilience that we are seeing in be economy -- the economy. that is the story so far. i think that growth will slow from here. tech, defenses will continue to be the place to be and i would not be two attracted by the siren calls of deregulated small caps or cy

howard schultz from from starbucks or tory burch who started her her own company or investors like ray dalio ran, you know, the largest hedge fund in the world, mike milken, who's been an innovator in financial world. eric schmidt, the former ceo of google and several dozen others. and we said we want to launch this fund, this rise trust fund that's going to back these entrepreneurs all across the country in these rising cities and. our goal is to generate top tier returns, top tier investment returns, because that would not just generate for you all, but also would signal to investors on the coast to more attention to the entrepreneurs in the middle, middle of the country. and so it has been very important, even though there are some broader ideas that we talked about in terms of job creation and economic vitality. and in these communities first and foremost, we've got to generate great returns because that really will, you know, get some of those investors paying less attention to the entrepreneurs in their own backyard, say, in silicon valley, and more attention to these dozens of cities

shery: prime minister modi also met with ray dalio, and general electric is expecting to sign a deal engines. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: time is running out for the five people on board a submersible which went missing during an expedition to explore the wreck of the titanic. noises were detected. what do we know? >> as you said, time is running out. 10 hours or so of oxygen left on the craft. sounds were detected by canadian aircraft. they do not know what they are. they are deploying more underwater devices. it is not clear what they are. they may be coming from the search vessels themselves. that is the focus at the moment. shery: that is that from daybreak: asia. key central-bank decisions are coming up. bloomberg markets china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. sh

so much in the near term and what that will mean and the larger issues that sara discussed with ray dalio, i don't worry about that i don't want to say that ap te might for u.s. treasuries is insatiable, but it's very large. i don't know how many times they have been concerned treasuries were flooding the market and the market gobbled them up you pointed out in the last segment that portfolio managers are still very long on bonds, so, you know, even early indicators of flight from u.s. treasuries treasury bonds aren't there. you know, you can sort of see it creeping in when worried about the debt ceiling and then that disappeared, fortunately, that worry disappeared fortunately, and it looks sort of back to normal. >> alan, this morning goldman has a note, the title is "could the fed raise its inflation target?" they think probably not but say if core cpe gets to 2.5 it could be enough to leave the rest alone and not risk a recession does that make sense to you? >> i might change the second decimal a little higher. i would like to -- i think the fed would be -- is very anxious to see a 2

we have a lot of power players what will happen >> reporter: good to see you yes, we will talk to ray daliot

tom: ray dalio of bridgewater, and of course the founder there. he is in some levels of retirement. to say that coming out of the pandemic with all of the opportunities of getting people together it is an extraordinary bloomberg invest conference. mr. and miller yesterday making headlines, moving the markets. today there is a guy from goldman sachs, mr. waldron. katie coke will join from tcw, the west coast powerhouse. i will speak to my good friend naseem to lab. scott patterson has killed it with chaos kings. i may launch it to the book of the summer here, but this is outstanding. can't really say enough about it. we are going to die into -- dive into it. we are also going to cover the markets. the bond market. our bond panel over the last two days will be led by ira jersey. he joins lisa and i this morning here. i want to get to the omg we are all going to die, and that is not messi in miami. it is t-bills after the debt crisis that is going to be an overwhelming flood of t-bills and the market funds will not sop them up and crisis will ensue. ira: we have seen so far is that the

acquisition of credit suisse we will have a huge lineup on cnbc in the 10:00 hour david solomon and then ray dalioat 1:00 p.m., bank of america ceo ibrian nmoynahan interview all ahead on cnbc. together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. >>> welcome back to "squawk box for lgbtq seniors as they age. sharon epperson has more on how they fill the care gap >> reporter: margaret rush came up with a plan to grow old with her wife >> we both came out late in life we didn't want to go back in the closest. >> reporter: they created an age 55 plus housing community for lgbtq+ seniors and allies in north carolina pat joined us on zoom while she was away caring