ray dalio is with me, founder of bridgewater.or taking the time. >> glad to be here. >> you've been coming here for a long time. i want to frame the conversation with you in the way you look at the world right now through history focused on the big themes like debt and the internal order changes. we'll talk about the election. >> five big things. >> internal order -- >> so credit, debt, and drives the economy. and how that works. so number one. and then it goes through a big cycle. number two is internal order and disorder. >> yes. >> so number three, which we're experiencing in the united states -- >> for sure. >> -- some other countries. experiencing at an extreme. number three is the world order. >> yes. >> the rise of a great power and then the competition. >> this is china v. the u.s. >> china and then those and then, yes, what is the order? what is the rules? >> yes, trying to figure that out. >> so it changes. it used to be dominance. it's no longer dominance. >> number four is -- >> pandemics. >> yes. acts of nature, drou

has a busy day tomorrow morning, she will be interviewing the founder of bridgewater associates, ray dalio. we will of course be dipping in on that. coming up, a rare amazon skeptic. up next, why one analysts report has shares falling. this is bloomberg. ♪ tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. katie: this is "bloomberg markets," time for the stock of the hour. amazon shares are falling after a rare analyst downgrade. wells fargo cut the stock to equal weight from overweight with analysts saying the growth in the cloud computing business is not likely to compensate for shrinking market trend -- shrinking market trends, cup from $225 to $183, one of

billionaire investor ray dalio said he's not expecting significant breakouts going forward from the fed. >> i don't think that you will get significant cuts in rates. the economy, by and large right now itself, is in relatively good balance. looking at where growth is, where inflation is and so on right now, and you have a political year, the markets are getting ahead of themselves with expecting that and the risks are more on the upside than the downside. sonali: joining us now, matthew and george from bank of america and all spring. look at the way that market expectations are changing. what do you expect? 1, 2, or none? matt: to cuts this year, five next year, that's the forecast from the top of the house. but we want to be careful on that. we recently moved to a neutral duration position from a long duration position, because of all of the juice you can squeeze out of that orange. our trend belief is that rates will be flat to down, but we are not looking to put a lot of capital at risk on that believe. we'd want to at least be neutral, but is it neutral long or not being sure, that

market enthusiasm, many are urging caution, including jp morgan's jamie dimon and bridgewater�*s ray dalioaccording to a recent survey by the national association for business economics, nearly 40% of professional forecasters say that a monetary policy mistake by the federal reserve is the biggest downside risk to the economy in the next year. 23% say next month's presidential election is the biggest risk, and an equal number cite the escalating conflict in the middle east. but these risk factors don't seem to have dented investor confidence here on wall street. after the united states, brazil is the second—biggest economy in the americas. its recent growth has been driven by a robust agribusiness sector, with brazil leading global exports in commodities such as soy, sugar, coffee, orange juice and cotton. with a territory nearly as big as europe, the country is also reaching minerals, ranking second to china in iron ore production and also excelling in the production of copper, aluminium, niobium and other minerals. as the seventh most populous country, brazil represents a significant con

he echoed the things that ray dalio said yesterday on this morning about the fiscal deficit and he says the combination of these inflation risks risk a higher for longer world when it comes for interest rates and says they might stay here and could tick down as opposed to going straight down. tom: that's an inflation view coming through from jamie dimon. we've had a number of fed speakers, what have they been saying, do we have more clarity? valerie: they are all talking about this balance of risk between inflation and unemployment. many are using this buzz word of balance we heard from jefferson yesterday saying the risk has been roughly brought into balance. we also heard from adriano kugler yesterday talking about this balanced approach. we heard from boston's fed president susan collins, take a listen. susan: looking ahead, preserving the favorable conditions will require adjusting monetary policies so as not to unnecessarily restrain demand. that will require a careful databased approach as we balance the risk. there are risks on both sides. >> this buzz word of balance is catching

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of some of the most sophisticated investors in the world, and that group is of the caliber of a ray dalio, cathie wood, warren buffett, and they are basically telling everybody what they are doing, not advising anyone so they are saying you can buy bitcoin, buy bitcoin etf. do whatever you want but they are doing it and they are all-in. liz: if you want to buy lower than its been, today is the day. barbara, thank you so much. it's great to have you. >> [closing bell ringing] liz: well on this first trading day of october, our starting off in the red but heck, who knows what happens tomorrow. that's why we're here. we'll see you tomorrow. kudlow is next. larry: hello folks welcome to kudlow i'm larry kudlow. so, israel launching a ground invasion of lebanon and iran is launched another missile attack on israel. we've got senator john barrasso, congressman byron donalds on set. first up mike tobin live on the ground in israel. mike, thank you for this. what's cooking up there? reporter: well i could tell you it's all quiet now but the tension certainly is high as the israeli leadership will

of some of the most sophisticated investors in the world, and that group is of the caliber of a ray dalioe basically telling everybody what they are doing, not advising anyone so they are saying you can buy bitcoin, buy bitcoin etf. do whatever you want but they are doing it and they are all-in. liz: if you want to buy lower than its been, today is the day. barbara, thank you so much. it's great to have you. >> [closing bell ringing] liz: well on this first trading day of october, our starting off in the red but heck, who knows what happens tomorrow. that's why we're here. we'll see you tomorrow. kudlow is next. larry: hello folks welcome t

we'll see you soon, obviously tomorrow with ray dalio. >>> let's move to our next guest, laying out severalor financials under a trump or harris presidency, and says there will be opportunities, no matter who wins. wells fargo manager and directorer, senior banking analysts. you were named number one, fifth year in a row. >> thank you. >> no props today. >> what did you bring last time? oh, one of your power lift things. >> hammers. >> also, a key power lifter as well. let's talk the election. give us a quick take in terms of trump, harris, and why from your perspective, at least, it still benefits for financials on both. >> it's an opportunity, no matter who wins. first, clarity, just give clarity on the rules, whether it comes to the stress test. banks don't know until after the whole stress test. so wall street likes certainty over uncertainty. the second thing is common sense regulation. you've already seen this put in place under the current administration. they rolled back in the thousand-plus page report about capital changes. that's already the course of change. and the third thing

ray dalio with sara at the fii institute's eighth annual conference in saudi arabia.ing out its latest ai features ahead of earnings later this week. what's at stake for the tech giant. >> plus, boeing announces a massive capital raise. will be using it to shore up finances. what is it going to mean for the struggling plane maker and investor snz. >> and the battle to be number one as nvidia briefly tops apple to be the biggest company in the world. a closer look at what's xt fneor nvidia and the semis as "squawk on the street" continues. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be? jen b asks, "how can i get fast download speeds to graduation day and beyond. while out and about?” jen, we've engineered xfinity mobile with wifi speeds up to a gig, so you can download and do much more all at once. it's an idea that's quite att

we hear from someone like ray dalio yesterday who said the volatility makes me not want to be in thed 4%. look for five minutes later this afternoon. this morning, pricing in election risk. >> the question is uncertainty. that is the key dynamic we have seen with elections. if you look at every election, uncertainty is the most important thing for stocks and it is this time before the election when uncertainty tends to be highest and that leads to higher volatility, market weakness, the flipside is after the election, the uncertainty moves lower at stocks usually rise higher. we expect them to repeat that pattern. jonathan: election date around the corner but the outcome could be days, weeks or months away. writing the following, the term structure of vix futures continues to signal increased uncertainty around the election outcome on november 5. this implies the market's underpricing the probability of a prolonged contested election. joining us to discuss this is robert hocking. good morning. how difficult is that, the way things have been priced this time compared to previous elect