i know that from having been there and watching you guys and how you work at raymond james.t's a formula that appears to be working. jeff, finish this sentence. all i really want for christmas? >> is a bottom in the energy complex which our energy team which i think is one of the best in the business came out two weeks ago and said we think in the next few weeks you will get a bottom in crude oil prices. think they're right. liz: we'll sofer correct. great to see you, jeff. thank you so much for joining us. >> merry christmas. liz: and to you too. thank you so much, jeff sought. david: good guy. he was mentioning a black swan events. this may lead to one. u.s. embassies around the world facing potential backlash from a top secret report to be released. what cia apparently did to terror suspects in days after september 11th attacks. liz: rich edson live from the white house with more on the story. >> the senate intelligence committee will release details or summary of this report at 11:00 tomorrow morning. its chair, senator dianne feinstein has been months making going into

jeff saut, raymond james and mark newton, and our own fox business's adam shapiro. david?: all the sectors did great but there is one sector in the market up 30% this year, outperforming all of the others. up next we tell you why the uptrend could continue and how you can still get in on the action. >>> plus one of the most contentious issues in d.c. this year has been immigration. up next, rich edson from inside the beltway will give us the lowdown how the battle over immigration is shaping up tore 2015. note ♪ david: this is so cool. it has got the most horsepower than any sedan in the world. not a porsche, mercedes-benz or maserati. it's a dodge of the company released dodger xrt hellcat. it has a supercharged 707-horsepower engine. it can go 204 miles per hour. the hellcat goes from zero to 60 miles per hour in only 3.5 seconds. it gets around 22 miles per hour. not a bad combination. the car will sell just under $65,000. i pray that my wife is listening right now. >> very sexy. david: i love that car. liz: there is one sector, not auto sector, in the market that has b

raymond james and david, go to you first.umber mean? where do we go from

raymond james and david, go to you first. what does this number mean? where do we go from here? >> it is a great number. we get a number like this, a big revision upward to 5%. the dark cloud all year has really been been the bond market. 10-year yields hovering 2%. we dipped below two a couple times. that makes investors a little concerned. the problem is not here but in europe. high yield keeps anchor on our yield. there were dark clouds in this. durable goods still a problem. i have some questions about aircraft manufacturers. i think we'll hear more from some of the other guests on that. rich: talk about that in terms of what we're seeing on exports. dollar is weakening. strength in europe. klaus, what does it mean on this one? what does it mean about exports? do we have to worry on that front? >> i would be concerned of a little bit of a headwind in some areas of the world. asia slowing down a little bit. i think that will affect exports but i still think that consumer demand growing is a good thing. domestic demand grow

at raymond james stadium in tampa. they were not hit by lightning but it was so close, it knocked some of them down. >>> and now breaking news about jameis winston. here's matt gutman. >> reporter: jameis winston, cleared again. he was cleared of sexual assault two years ago. as he won the heisman trophy, he was dogged by accusations by a fellow student that he drugged and raped her. in a legal response, a florida supreme court judge wrote that the preponderance of the evidence does not show that he violated the florida state code. matt gutman, abc news, miami. >>> and muhammad ali has been hospitalized in stable condition with pneumonia. a spokesman says the pneumonia is a mild case. the 72-year-old is also battling parkinson's disease. >>> and next to the cyber attack on sony. hackers calling their victims idiots. and tonight, north korea is issuing a bold message about the cyber war. turning it into a war of words. here's tom llamas, once again on the story for us tonight. >> reporter: tonight, north korea firing ba

raymond james removed the 85% target. shares fell 12% to $72.77. >>> valium said it's abandoning its acquisition to reduce debt and the stock price. the canadian drug maker spent 20 bblds on acquisition since 2008 and regrouping after failing to acquire aligan. fell to 141 even. >>> a new audit by the general for tax administration shows the irs paid at least $6 billion in improper tax breaks. payments were refunds to family that incorrectly claimed child tax credits or claimed the wrong amount. they went to fraudsters. millions of low income families qualified for the child credit even though they don't make enough money to pay federal income tax. >>> no credits for amazon warehouse workers. the retail giant doesn't have to pay those workers for the time they spend at security checks as their shift ends. it was a victory for the growing number of companies which routinely screen to prevent theft. some amazon workers claim they wait up to 25 minutes to get through security. >>> clock is ticking. midnight thursday is the d

it happened in the parking lot of raymond james stadium just after today's game between the tampa bay buccaneers and the green bay packers. according to the local fire department, all are in stable condition. heavy rain and extremely high tides called king tides are bringing floods and possibly more mudslides to northern california. mark kelly of our bay area affiliate kpix has the latest. >> big waves in the pas civic ocean pummel the shore in california today. this week continued one of the wettest decembers on record. >> the king tides were likely overwhelm cities like mill valley where forecasters predict the tide will top seven feet. three inches of water has already cent through the local streets. for ashley, the weather here takes some getting used to. >> we moved out here a year ago. and saw no rain for the first month we lived here. so seeing all this rain for the first time was pretty overwhelming. >> reporter: a coastal flood advisory will stay in effect here through tomorrow. for cbs news, mark kelly in mill valley. >> it is the first day of winter, and prechristmas storms

the lightning hit the top of an suv minutes after the game against green bay ended at raymond james stadium. people were knocked to the ground. witnesses described a loud boom. >>> wikileaks has released what it says are classified cia documents that show operatives how to avoid detection during international airport screenings. cbs senior security analyst juan zarate said it is dangerous leak. >> part of the problem here is that this is new information. it appears to come from perhaps a new source, perhaps a source within the cia. and if this means that wikileaks will begin to leak more cia information, that means that their trade craft, their secrets are now going to be on the internet. >> one document is a secret manual providing operatives how to preserve their cover under questioning. >> within days before christmas stores are counting on last-minute shoppers to help lift profits. mark albert looks at the growing retail trend. >> reporter: the national retail operati operation found shoppers waited till the end of the shopping year hoping for better deals. jesse ferraro is one of them

managing director at raymond james. >>> coming up, sony pictures comes under attack from hackers andees for its controversial new comedy "the interview." we cross to the cnbc headquarters for the latest. >>> it's a situation playing out in real life as hackers step up their threats against sony pictures. landon dowdy is live at cnbc headquarters with the latest. landon. >> good morning. executives at sony pictures will reportedly leave it up to movie theater owners to decide whether to show the interview. the comedy set to open in the u.s. on christmas day and that comes after threats of violence surfaced on tuesday. reports say the hackers who claim to have carried out the massive cyber attack on the studio last month are threatening physical attacks. in a message posted online, the company reference tess 9/11 terror attacks and the department of homeland security says there's no credible evidence of a plot against movie theaters, but reports say some in the industry are urging sony to cancel the movie release. and such a move is unprecedented. studios and theaters work out when and

. >>> in tampa, scary moments outside raymond james stadium. the hospital after being struck by lightning. the bolt hit the parking lot and appeared to damage the roof of the suv. did not hit the fans directly, but what a moment. four or five other people told crews they would take themselves to the hospital. >>> sunday night football. the super bowl champion seahawks look ready to repeat setting a franchise record with 596 yards of offense in a 35-6 rout of the arizona cardinals. a win next week would give them home-field advantage. look at this brawl. odell beckham takes a late hit and the fists are flying. he caught two touchdown passes in the giant 37-27 win. >>> an unforgettable sketch on "saturday night live" taking aim at north korea and sony for giving "evil" a bad name. >> it is pathetic to see you two fight over a silly comedy. it is like watching two bald money fight over a comb. who cares? come on, sony, you thought it was a joke to have james franco assassinate kim jong-un? the man almost single handedly killed the oscars. think. >

the strike happened in the parking lot of raymond james stadium after the buccaneer game.was hit by the bolt directly, but you can see damage done to one of the cars. all of the injuries are minor. four of the people who were hurt even drove themselves to the hospital. scary stuff. >>> now to a story about monkeys that just may warm your heart. one monkey comes to the rescue of another money co -- monkey after the animal was shocked on a high wire. it was lying next to the tracks not moving when he comes over and shakes it around and stays and keeps watch. the hero monkey even dunkings the wounded monkey into water and finally the monkey wakes up. no monkey business here. it is just a lesson about love and maybe a little emergency medical training. still to come, abc7 news i team investigation. why a local police chief is being accused of retaliation. >> and i am abc7 meteorologist drew touma. the temperatures are some 6 to 8 degrees above normal, but the warmer air is set to arrive over the next 48 ♪ then boom... what happened? stress, fun, bad habits, kids, now what? let

raymond james downgraded the stock to a market perform saying near term revenue weakness will persistt 12% on the day. lots of turls in the airlines overall. all majors in the red today. >> 40% gain in a year. sell a little bit here. tellcos are the ones that gotten my attention. verizon biggest percentage drop since 2011. and you have to go back three years or more. >> quite a few techs coming back today. gopro off the lows. sales force arm and sandisk among the biggest losers in that sector. >> all right. welcome to the halftime show. josh brown, mike murphy, stephen weiss, and pete najarian. our game plan looks like this. three stocks to pop. aerial investments, chairman and ceo john rogers on winners to own in 2015. under the apple tree. the surprising results from cnbc's all america survey

still among the universities of regionals covered by raymond james 20% of mid sized portfolio energy firms and much to the riskier oil service companies, over 18% of tulsa based financial portfolios and stock lower this week. the company's chief credit officer down playing the impact of oil slide and said portfolio split 60/40 and most loans are to enp firms secured by proven preserves that can fund loans using hedges to protect themselves. san antonio based is down as well. the bank's 15% exposure relatively high but ceo dick evans maintaining lenders protected by diverse group of loans conservative under writing and the fact that the bank has only lent about 15% of its commitment. the greatest risk is said to be loans made to oil services firms because they are going to be hit hardest and first if lower prices prompt companies to cut back on production then you are concerned if you have lower oil price what does it do to local economies. the upside is you have lower gas prices to help local businesses like retailers. >> and lay people off then that hates. >> and some others, as wel

it struck a car in the parking lot of raymond james stadium in tampa sunday have afternoon. seven people were hospitalized as a precaution. eyewitnesses said they knew it was bad the second they heard such a loud boom. >> flash bang that fast you know what i mean, it just took you to your knees. it scared you. you looked around to see got hit. you knew it was close. >> officials say this could have been a lot worse, no one was directly hit. >>> kate bilo is here now and we've got a little rain heading our way. >> i'm looking at it behind you, massive rain coming our way. >> big storm will impact entire eastern half of the country and that means not the best news for travelers out there but better than snow for travelers. the lets look at how evening is looking, speaking of snow but look at the poconos region and jack frost big boulder, they have snow on the the slopes but it will get nice and warm over next few days. snow machines will be working overtime, they do have have that freezing rain advisory as i mentioned earlier in the poconos tonight as that light rain moves in

let's bring in art hatfield with raymond james to get more.hat stood out to you from the report this morning, art? >> well, actually, i think we were the one outlier on the street where the company beat our estimates. we were at 2.08 on the quarter. the thing that jumps out with reaction, i think a lot of my peers were a little too aggressive on the impact from fuel from the quarter. while it's somewhat of a straightforward calculation, the application of how it flows through the company's business is not so simple. so i think some of the estimates were a little bit ahead based on that. as a result, you're getting a little bit of a negative reaction this morning before the market opens. >> any expectation that the less-than-expected savings from fuel is going to continue? i mean, they did reaffirm their outlook. >> they did. and i think the biggest takeaway here is that more importantly than just fuel is that the company's on target with regard to their cost reduction program. we saw significant improvement in margin at the express unit. reall

there is questions about the viability of a santa claus rally and five minutes ago, jeff saut of raymond james said, don't worry, it will happen. >> i think it will happen, liz. we look, a lot of different things, market down five days. how terrible it is. look what is going on the other side. last week we had great retail sales numbers. we have sales climbing faster than the inventory level. which means we'll have inventory to be built. more jobs out there. economy is doing pretty well and lower gas price. this will turn around. i wish i could say it will be tomorrow but i think we'll have nice numbers before december 25th. david: lance, liz just referenced jeff saut. he said utilities was a very dangerous place to be. he said that a year ago and he was wrong but you think he is wrong now. why? why do you like utilities? >> david, liz, we've been talking about this ever since january. i've been liking utilities and defensive plays all year long. staples and utilities have been great all year. why? because that weakness is showing up and this is why interest rates continue to fall. there is a

he's raymond james' chief exbity strategist.e that we must listen to is because you have been right. you were smack dab on the dial when it came to picking how the s&p would behave this entire year, up 10-12%, it was up about 11%. why do you believe that the rally still has a shot here? >> well, if you look at the historic month of december, i think we've been up 49 times since 1950 and down 15 times. i mean, the seasonality of trying to put stocks away to the downside is just not, not favorable. usually you get weakness in the first couple weeks of the month, and then you make a bottom sometime around this week, and that sets up the fabled santa claus rally into the new year. i don't think it's going to be any different this year. liz: okay. now let's get to oil. your team is making a call here. we talked about it last week, but remind our viewers who might not have been with us. >> they came out a few weeks ago, and they think that the price of crude oil is in the bottoming phase between now and the first part of january. i ha

jeff of raymond james was on yesterday, 2015 outlook, 10-12% to the upside.was right this year, we'll see what happens. great to see you. we're asking you guys on facebook what do you think would be the next black swan event? you just heard jeff grossman say i think all the bad news is priced in. there's always something around the corner. trust me, i worked in local news, something always explodes. let us know what you think will be the black swan event. will there be a debt default of some sort? who knows? facebook.com/lizclaman. jonathan gruber apologized today for calling the american voters "stupid." the mit-trained economist faced some very tough questions on capitol hill where he responded by defending the affordable care act. but, again, he did apologize. some major players in the health care sector have certainly benefited from obamacare, and that's what we look at. we look at stocks, we see how they have done. look at the huge gains recorded in related stocks since obamacare, the law itself, was signed back in march of 2010. unitedhealth group up 20

from the fundamental side, erin, how many is due to the downgrade of spirit airlines by raymond james spirit isn't even in this index, so i don't think it's this one. >> but in terms of the sentiment for the airline sector. >> on an average, the u.s. airline industry has about 30% of its operating costs coming from fuel costs. i do like this index. i think it can outperform the market over the next 12 months. looking forward, we're trading at about 10 times forward earnings and there an average of 84% eps growth over the next 12 months. so really good impressive numbers. but when you really delve into it, the one thing i don't like is that it's equal weighted and has a lot of the more volatile european and asian airlines in there. and the real advantages come from the u.s. airline industry. these companies have been doing particularly well with the additional mergers, consolidati consolidations, route consolidation where there is less competition as well as being really able to take advantage of these lower fuel prices because u.s. airlines don't tend to hedge fuel costs at all about.

joining us now, scott brown, chief economist at raymond james great to have you here.k this is fascinating potential possibilities for what could happen to the economy, this dividend boost. is that what we're seeing in the retail sales numbers today? >> it was a little bit there in the numbers we got for december. i think we're probably going to see a much bigger effect into december and early part of 2015. generally when you look at impact of lower gasoline prices for consumers, depend how low they go and how long they stay low and shows up with a lag. i like to use the 13-week average. it may be some time before we see full effect but at least a partial effect in november. gerri: yeah, it was a little pop, certainly surprised wall street. you saw what happened to stocks. by some estimates, for every penny gas prices fall, consumers save a billion dollars that can go into the economy. and yet, to some extent the polling certainly of americans, there is disconnect here belies all that. what we see there is a certain lack of confidence among americans. 64% saying that t

on the other side of the coin, raymond james has a more cautious saying they don't have a dependableientele stealing market share from competitors such as southwest and jetblue but they both agree on lower cost of oil and fuel prices will help the company with earnings per share. rich: thank you, nicole. former president george hw bush has been taken to the hospital after shortness of breath. he was hospitalized two years ago with bronchitis. president bush was taken to hospital as a precautionary measure the family is saying. santa isn't bringing you your gifts, you're out of luck. a cap unless that express shipping because retailers have gone beyond their agreed-upon time limit. trying to stop last year's fiasco from happening again. last year nearly 2 million packages did not make it to their destinations in time for christmas. christmas shopping, are you done or what? >> i am done. i am all for drones, let amazon fly the gift to your home the day or hours before you get it. rich: this was on capitol hill a week or two ago, they were looking to have the faa expand licenses. >> the

we have raymond james and travis mccord joining us. of 2014 was great products none of them big enough to move the needle on a company this larnl. is apple pay going to be any different? >> as a stand-alone product, probably not. yet another service that will drive more market share gain for the phone. in terms of modernization, that's what matters for apple. every 1% increase globally is another 5%-10% growth in earnings. >> is there a natural ceiling to how much share the iphone can have? >> we are still in the low teens market share. obviously, they are taking a rather high price strategy. there is a limit. to where they can get to. i don't know that we are anywhere near that limit quite yet. >> how do holiday sales look. it does feel like the new iphone 6 and 6 plus that cycle product upgrade is lasting longer than usual. >> all the data we look at suggests a pretty fantastic quarerquar quarter for cell phones. one of the easiest things to check is the availability of the phones themselves. we are seeing spotty instances of lack of

raymond james downgrading spirit. that had been the leader of the airline group. right now it's a little ugly. >> is the willingness to sell a gainer you had more acute because you are trying to make up for margin losses on the downside of energy, for instance? >> yeah. one of the things, we've been going consistently oil goes down. if oil stops going down, we are not going to raise numbers. do i think oil is done? no. i think oil can go lower. saudis said $60 is the level. we'll do 10 million barrels next year in the united states. it's not a great moment. just not a great moment, other than abercrombie. new guy turns the place into washing machines, tools. sears has everything. >>> when we come back, apple and tesla off a rough monday on wall street. tesla down seven straight days. we'll look at what's ahead for both stocks. >> under armour founder and ceo kevin plank. we did it. we did it! ♪ it is official, we gave the people what they wanted. the nation's strongest lte signal. this is a big deal! soak it in! just let it wash over you like a warm bath. >>> shar

we have over 4 million individual investor accounts here at raymond james and buying dividend-paying stocks. >> and i'm looking at the -- >> i agree. they've been going in into etfs especially. hedge funds and pensions have been sellers. net that out -- >> i agree with this. >> all right. we are going to close the poll here in a minute. are you going to buy, sell or hold in the new year and half said buy. 38% to sell. 12% hanging on. >> jeff, you like the results? >> do i like what? >> those results? only 50% of people or as many of 50% in our unscientific survey saying they're going to buy the stock market. what do you think about that? >> before it's over with and i have seen a few secular bull markets before, i think the public will be all in as they always have. >> that's what brian is suggesting, as well. thank you. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas. >> we have to keep running that poll now to see how the numbers inch higher. >> we are coming off a high here. keep an eye on that. we have 30 minutes to go. the dow's still above 18,000 obviously. but we got 35-point cushion r

raymond james downgraded it to a market perform and removed the price target. and then lots of turbulence in the airline sector overall. american, delta, united, continental, southwest lower on the day. autozone is higher after the retailer reported better than expected first quarter results and ending with abercrombie & fitch gaining ground on the new ceo would retire effective immediately and then replaced by team led by arthur martinez, executive chairman. the shares as you can see up by 8% on the day overall. michelle, scott, interesting moves on a day when the dow bounced back off we'll say really 150 points off the lows. back over to you. >> certainly. thank you. >>> interesting moves coming to telecom. invest to recalls hanging up on verizon, at&t and sprint as the wireless price wars heat up. morgan brennan, big volatility today for the stocks. what is going on? >> this holiday season is a free for all for wireless carriers and pushing telecom stocks down almost 4%, the worst performing sector in the s&p now negative for the year. verizon falling about

today it's raymond james arguing that $60 is the level which the saudis thought they could take crude out shale but that chip would be brief, in their words. >> whiting downgraded from sell to buy. there are many of these. sanchez is like this. these are the companies that people are worried about. freeport people are worried about. i don't want to be worried if oil bounces here. don't bottom fish, but if it goes to $50, it bounces. >> dow is up 153. daughter: do you and mom still have money with that broker? dad: yeah, 20 something years now. thinking about what you want to do with your money? daughter: looking at options. what do you guys pay in fees? dad: i don't know exactly. daughter: if you're not happy do they have to pay you back? dad: it doesn't really work that way. daughter: you sure? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab. you can bring back from a trip around the world. but you can't always bring back customer data. because many customers don't like it when their data moves around. can i go now? if you

he is at raymond james. and on the phone steven schork, editor of the schork report.ith you. you've got an interesting take on this. we heard the saudis wanted to put the frackers out of business. you're -- one of your views i heard expressed is they don't like lng exploding to their part of the world either. and eventually this could even hurt that. could you explain that? >> absolutely, yeah. look, there are a lot of motivations for why saudi is trying to create oil prices. clearly damaging supply growth. there may be some geo-political reasons. take china, for example. chinese oil imports are up 30% in the last five years. not bad. chinese lng imports are up threefold in the last five years. that's a big deal. and lng eats into the market share. are using it in many cases as a substitute for crude. aww dee does not make lng. qatar does. but saudi does not and most other opec members do not. so all saudi cares about is protecting the addressable market especially in asia for its barrels. and lng gets into that because economics have traditionally been tied to the pr

. >> james: the forty-niners have released so. raymond donovan is no longer a 49 a. >> reporter: he's a suspect in case involved a woman with a local hospital a clam single-sex will solve the by him monday at her home of the is not an arrested the zero manager said the latest allegations to just a matter of bad behavior. for decision making no answer the door but they were followed place on to them after allowing him to play the investigation when on the 49 is this time are saying enough is enough. he has made four decisions he is aware that this is the case of being accountable for all four decisions. addison situation he was befriend this organization is a franchise you would have a high standard. >> james: a woman is recovering from gunshot wounds as morning after she was shot during a robbery in oakland it happen before 6:00 last night and 13th in bayview avenue also in oakland we have people they're debating about the use of police by cameras during its town hall meeting last night that the official's call her from an been impacted b

raymond chandler. they are, quote-unquote, little people, ordinary people who do not want material success. they are, in henry james' words, perfectly equipped failures. and i wanted to talk about them beginning with huck finn because i think huck finn is america's literary declaration of independence. and i felt that at the end of huck finn that people started moving out and going to other landscapes of america. so babbitt becomes the anti-huck which is the standardization of thought. that is what is really threatening us today, indifference, sleeping consciousness which is all the things that is talked about. okay. and then carson -- [inaudible] and then, of course, the great, the incomparable james baldwin who was not just a writer, not just an african-american writer, not just a gay african-american writer, not just an american writer, but a writer. who speaks to all of us

raymond chandler. they are, quote-unquote, little people, ordinary people who do not want material success. they are, in henry james' words, perfectly equipped failures. and i wanted to talk about them beginning with huck finn because i think huck finn is america's literary declaration of independence. and i felt that at the end of huck finn that people started moving out and going to other landscapes of america. so babbitt becomes the anti-huck which is the standardization of thought. that is what is really threatening us today, indifference, sleeping consciousness which is all the things that is talked about. okay. and then carson -- [inaudible] and then, of course, the great, the incomparable james baldwin who was not just a writer, not just an african-american writer, not just a gay african-american writer, not just an american writer, but a writer. who speaks to all of us and who's so important today. and i think we should remember baldwin. i don't have time to go into it. and i want to end by a quote from mark twain. mark twain gives a talk to what he calls the mayflower tribes, the descendants of the mayflow

raymond stand down at 7000. that and open them to open up well in the run sister. this is what this is a lamb began to develop as the impact us today and early tomorrow >> james: we canou all the visibility charts were we got called out there is heavy in places their feel for example of where is the heaviest present the mile visibility it was zero so it moved around and make things difficult for commuters come at a fair phil was a mild visibility and the live camera there edition of the low clouds tear over the airport and it does not take much as you know considered delayed for up to our riding flights. a lot of low to mid 50's b.c. look immensities in san francisco 66 and san jose this about every location along the bay area low to mid 60 rain will fall mild day today with with policy and red russian crews will receive on satellite and radar. >> james: system was along light sour beginning to come to bill does not the santa rosa and the will fax 421 and afternoon and rain began to develop we have a book showers bay area wide and is wanted as an into three in the afternoon where you're headed you're ride to rain pretty much the drive home. sunday and is the more it

raymond chandler. they are, quote-unquote, little people, ordinary people who do not want material success. they are, in henry james' words, perfectly equipped failures. and i wanted to talk about them beginning with huck finn because i think huck finn is america's literary declaration of independence. and i felt that at the end of huck finn that people started moving out and going to other landscapes of america. so babbitt becomes the anti-huck which is the standardization of thought. that is what is really threatening us today, indifference, sleeping consciousness which is all the things that is talked about. okay. and then carson -- [inaudible] and then, of course, the great, the incomparable james baldwin who was not just a writer, not just an african-american writer, not just a gay african-american writer, not just an american writer, but a writer. who speaks to all of us and who's so important today. and i think we should remember baldwin. i don't have time to go into it. and i want to end by a quote from mark twain. mark twain gives a talk to what he calls the mayflower tribes, the descendants of the mayflow