joining us to talk about this is ed mills, policy analyst at raymond james. welcome back, ed, nice have you here. >> gat to see y two. >> you think this is an underappreciated risk at this point. what are the economic ripple effes, do you think, of this situation? >> yeah, and i think it's an underappreciated risk from the political perspective. r because this y a political story. a market story. probly most importantly an economic story. what you have is a debate going on. if you were to implement this wealth tax, which is actually hugely popul in polling data, what does that do to the economy? doeshat disincentivize different folks from investing in the economy? does it incentivize wealth flight from the united states? or conversely, ds it incentivize folks to work outside the home because thatt money t going to be collected from the wealth tax could go to pay for health care, child care? could people buy more homes becao e they are going reduced, seeing the student loan debt the millennial generation buis ovened by at this current time? so that's the debat

let's get to the experts the head of fixed income at capital markets of raymond james.t talking about the moves in fixed income. and actually the big catalyst for the saleoff was the employment report the week before, the prior week after that ten-year note briefly touched 195 in subsequent sessions, but we're now back down to around 184 so it doesn't appear as though this fixed income selloff really has lelgs, does it >> no, not really. still has a lot to do with the inflation rates that we talked about. the employment report was a big outsize, upside surprise to the market they were not prepared for it at the time so you saw natural selling there. a little bit more of an up tick or little less of an up tick in average hourly earnings which pushed slightly higher the year over year number but the monthly number was lower than expected, so the market tended to settle down most of the news we got after that, even though it was probably good news, wasn't going to upset the risk of trade as much as people thought it would. so, buyers came back into the treasury, especially

joipg us with larry adams chief ment officer at raymond james.hanks for joining us. >> good to se you, bill. >> what do you think, tailwind, headwind next year? >> i tnk global growth is going to be a tailwind. you look at what's happened- looking at last year at this point it was a totally different story. >> right. >> only 15% of global central banks cutting rates. today aboutlo 65% ofl central banks are cutting rates. that tends to act with lag. ase get into next year those should be stim la active for growth. ooking at fiscal policy, we st got a deal for the budget in the united states. calling for a 3.5% increase in spending by our that should help growth. more importantly thas happening globall japan just had $120 stimulus. in fact their governmentse r their gdp forecast to 1.4 next year1.rom and similar things happening in europe and china. >> you also point to the u.s. consumer, and specifically the job situation. well, the job situation kinni kinning to be healthy. one of the indicators is withholding taxes. every in the united states yo

rowe price or raymond james, because they all -- host: i will stop you and get a quick response. guest: i have not followed that mutual fund issue. host: a headline from the "wall street journal," u.s. deficit in the one truly dollars first few months of the fiscal year. that is a first. guest: in this calendar year, just like in this fiscal year, they have already increased the debt i more than $1 trillion. we are not seeing anywhere in the future where this will be reversed. there will have to be significant changes. host: michael in imperial beach, california. thank you for waiting period caller: -- thank you for waiting the government was stealing from social security to pay other bills for years. i believe george w. bush said in his second term that one of his main goals was to invest that money into wall street to get a better return. we all know what happened to the pension funds, once they started doing that all over the united states. so is the united states government considering actually investing in wall street to get a better return on the money that they are stealin

raymond james, lincoln international, places that focus on the middle market.dman is hoping to find bankers were with the big firms. the big dealmakers know those that they cover, and now they are trying to get more friendly faces for these firms. how big is the team already? sonali: 150 people. for a while, they were also focus on private equity firms, which tend to go for smaller deals. the big, strategic six and dollar merger. as goldman focuses on private equity firms, this pairs well with a strategy to go through with that. shery: what are we expecting from goldman in terms of what types of people they are getting from these firms? are there some double names that we could talk about? sonali: one of the interesting things about this strategy, you have some of their biggest dealmakers -- we interviewed dusty phillips, the cohead of their m&a, telling is a story about last year how he found himself at a gas station -- you coheadot think about the of m&a running across america chasing smaller deals. but even a top ranks are focused on this, and that chose to

most confusing moments i have seen because even as you said yesterday in a conference call at raymond jamesanted to talk about networking look, kind of a slower year for the hardware folks in networking but geez, it's been great for you. i don't think people can have a great year without the hardware folks and that's not true. >> the networking business is on fire we have been in the business for seven years. we had a solid quarter, 12% growth but the networking grew 50%. what we're trying to do is -- in networking is differentiating. we go from fire walls to load balancers to the branch offices. we accumulated now a set of customers, we're kind of like the tesla of networking. we're approaching this from a software defined fashion our customers tell us it's only two big companies at scale that matter in networking vm and cisco we're approaching from the software down and they're approaching it from the hardware up but today they announced they're going further down the hardware. i think if we continue to surface -- serve our customers well, look at the largest customers we'll be the indisp

the early game, maybe a sigh in tampa, florida, that is raymond james stadium, the site of next season's super bowl. this season's super bowl is in miami. next season is in tampa. texans and the bucs and the texans defense stepping up in a big way. bradley robey with a 27 yard interception return. houston beat tampa 23-20. the texans win the afc south. so what does this all mean for the 49ers? well, with the texans winning today, it is likely next week, the 49ers game in seattle will be moved to sunday night football. here on nbc. that's because it is likely the 49ers and the seahawks will be playing for the nfc west, the division title. here are the current seedings in the nfc. if you want to take a look, it is not the 49ers. the current seedings, the seahawks at the top spot, followed by the packers, saints, cowboys, and there in the five spot is the 49ers, right now janelle, if the playoffs were to begin, the 49ers with be the wildcard. they would open up on the road in dallas, against the cowboys. we can't make that happen. >> 7-7 record. it is unbelievable, the nine verse an 11-3 re

see what a raymond james financial advisor can do for you. >>>, welcome back.ce, what does the rest of america think about all this. impeachment is dominating the conversation here in washington. but we have been wondering how much voters beyond the beltway care about hearings on capitol hill. weç traveled to kent county, michigan, a part of our year long county to county problem. we are following five key counties in five swing states we will be believe will be the most competitive. we travel there home to grand rapids. my colleague from the "wall street journal." he sat down at a brewery with six voters. we wanted to know whether they're following impeachment as closely as we are. here's some of what we found. >> i don't even care about it. it's just noise, have you ever record a football game and found out the final score before you watchedç it? you wouldn't even care d. house votes articles of impeachment, the senate will probably acquit. it's already baked in. so it's not interesting. >> i'm thinking it's a done deal with the house. i agree that the sena

although, raymond james is fairly bullish, saying that according to edison trends data, amazon spendy and friday last week. of course, walmart was up about 53%. meantime, ulta today, shaking up a piper jaffrey price target cut. ulta had really, really steep promotions including on kylie cosmetics of about 40% over to bob. >> ism new order index implied some weakness in the industrial names, capital spending a little bit weaker than anticipated. saw industrial names, particularly aerospace names like northrop grumman were on the weak side, closing on the lows steel stocks like ak steel, u.s. steel, cleveland cliff cliffs, y all rallied on these renewed steel tariffs on brazil and argentina. there's the closing bell we're closing right at the lows of the day the dow jones industrial average down 264 points. the s&p just off the early morning lows, down 26. >>> welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm contessa brewer >> let's check in on where the markets go bob just mentioned session lows. at the end of the day, s&p down 0.9% dow down a little bit more than that dow

here to break it all down, ed mills, washington policy analyst with raymond james >> of these, which most likelihood of having an impact on investments or our bottom line >> i think everything coming out of impeachment is a macro positive coming up washington with the usmca you have an issue where business confidence and because spending has been the biggest drag on the economy. if you can get that passed and get some business confidence out there, you probably put that as number one but by not having a government shutdown, extending a whole bunch of tax provisions, doing a lot of the cats and dogs that were left over, that's adding a ton of fiscal stimulus to the market and when you have the fed largely on the sidelines being more accommodative, you add these all up together and this is a really nice macro backdrop that d.c. is giving us for christmas. >> i read that you think it has the possibility to really boost capital spending can you explainhow and why >> the story all this year has been about uncertainty we've had china trade kind of going back and forth as soon as folks star

pedaling hard oppenheimer is saying oh, don't worry about this, it won't effect sales, versus raymond jamesthey won't effect sales and oppenheimer is saying the recent stock rally we've seen over the last little while is unjustified and last but not least research firm sprinkler says right now 73% of all of the social media mentions of peloton online are negative, but neil, the mockery continues this time with celebrity ryan reynolds who hired the exact same actress from that peloton commercial for his own branded gin commercial. listen in. >> this gin is really smooth. >> yeah! >> we can get you another one if you'd like? >> you're safe here. >> to new beginnings. >> to new beginnings. >> there you go. it's going to be a fun night. >> you look great by the way! >> i'd like to point out that the peloton ad was titled the gift that keeps giving or gives back and the gin ad was called the gift that doesn't give back. and so we'll see what happens for investors and whether they get something back from all of this. neil: or they are just spinning their wheels. >> oh! thank you. neil: you're wel

us now with insights on trade and the market impacts, ed mills, washington policy analyst for raymond jamesno, just -- that's an actual title. i was putting -- >> that's the title. >> at aei and jimmy peas, a cnbc contributor. ed, i'll start with you just to ask you to look into peter navarro's mind set you heard what he said is he pleased with the phase one deal or do you believe some of the scuttlebutt that he thought maybe we should -- i mean, he is a hawk earlier he said everybody is a hawk do you think it's a deal he's happy with >> i think what i saw in the interview is peter navarro is a good soldier i don't think he's necessarily pleased but he's not going to come on here and say that as he knows this is a done deal. he's laid out on this program a number of times his seven deadly sins and i'm not quite sure how many of those seven deadly sins are dealt with here, but i also think he's a bit of a realist. i think his statements about how he and other hawks within this administration has really changed the conversation in washington, d.c., and has changed the conversation nationally

rowe price or raymond james, because they all -- host: i will stop you and get a quick response.st: i have not followed that mutual fund issue. host: a headline from the "wall street journal," u.s. deficit in the one truly dollars first few months of the fiscal year. that is a first. guest: in this calendar year, just like in this fiscal year, they have already increased the debt i more than $1 trillion. we are not seeing anywhere in the future where this will be reversed. there will have to be significant changes. host: michael in imperial beach, california. thank you for waiting period caller: -- thank you for waiting the government was stealing from social security to pay other bills for years. i believe george w. bush said in his second term that one of his main goals was to invest that money into wall street to get a better return. we all know what happened to the pension funds, once they started doing that all over the united states. so is the united states government considering actually investing in wall street to get a better return on the money that they are stealing fr

you have raymond james analyst saying he doesn't think the ad will affect sales. but it's more the feedback from everybody online. 73% of online media posts right now are negative regarding this peloton ad. will we move on or will we buy a peloton? stuart: oh, i think it will be one of the holiday season's best sellers. reporter: exactly. we keep talking about it. it seems to anger people and they question like i don't care, i do care -- stuart: it doesn't anger that many people. it just puts the ad on full display. people watch it and it's a pretty good product. i think it's a big winner this holiday season. i'm prepared to accept that i might be wrong but i don't think i am. reporter: i will come back with you in january with the numbers and let you know. stuart: i hope they tell us. thanks very much. we will see more of you later on today. got it. thanks very much. >>> it is monday. first trading day after the stellar jobs report and the big stock rally. jack hough, barron's guy, with us now. i just feel that it wants to go up some more. you with me on this? >>