interestingvery point about the rba commentary on housing. for a long time, there was a lot of narrative about how this was something that probably had to happen and it's probably a good thing. we saw in the rba minutes this distinctbtle but change of tone. the language was until now not really a problem, but if it gets worse, that could harm consumption in the rba has put a lot of stock in consumption holding up. >> one of the other things he spoke about in his opening statement was saying central banks globally had fewer buffers, less room to maneuver if things go down from here. ? that a real concern particularly when you look at the fed saying the cycle of normalization is over, and lots of talk about what they do it things really deteriorate from here? >> what is seen traditionally against the level benchmark rates traditionally have been at when major market economies interest slowdown is an entirely justifiable concern. been nocases, there has normalization of interest rates. the interest rate is still negative. they have stopped qe, b

investors are waiting, rba minutes are due out later. and the view from the bay, china gives more details on an ambitious plan to challenge silicon valley. with u.s. markets off-line for the long weekend, stocks in the region look set for declines with autos likely in focus. european carmakers took a hit on prospect of u.s. terrorists. posted thel gauge biggest increase in more than two weeks on monday, led higher by chinese shares. we do have the rba meeting minutes and futures pointing lower ahead of that, and more earnings do this tuesday. , let's this morning check in, high energy prices boosting earnings in 2018. we will see if there are more updates. forapshot of what to look in a story. let's get the first word news. >> the e.u. chief brexit tootiator says they are open a permanent customs union with u.k., and that the relationship should be as broad an ambitious as possible. any differences in the negotiations are due to pragmatic issues, not dogma. also confirming the e.u. will not be open to talks on terms of the brexit deal. s

the rba is trying to hedge its bets. they did not move off that in terms of keeping that hold was expectations, reasonable expectations that the labor market would hold up. malcolm: we are in this rare situation in australia. the labor market is very strong, unemployment around 5%, especially along the eastern seaboard cities. yet, we have declining house prices. usually the house prices decline when the economy starts to tank. this time it is happening in reverse. that makes it a little unsettling for the central bank. which way will consumption go. so far, consumption held up. we have the headwinds of the upcoming election. we have all this talk around the election that retirees' savings might get taxed and all doubt creeping into the electorate. so far, the labor market has been enough to hold up consumption. sophie: turning from the rba to the rbi, india central bank agreeing to early payout to the government. does the r.b.i. need this capital? malcolm: the rbi under patel would have said yes. although the r.b.i. als

the rba may take this as a green light they have room to move.new zealand to consider as well. new zealand is starting to sound quite dovish. there is a possibility new zealand will cut rates before australia. this is a kind of double winning that will keep yields low in both places. this spread could get even wider before it finds a stabilization point. >> i'm watching sony stock soaring more than 4%, the most since december 27 last year. we have heard sony will buy back up to 2.36% shares worth ¥100 million. that share buyback will start between february 12 and march 22. your point on monetary policy, let me turn to the rbi. we saw the surprise rate cut. we had expected them to hold. chancehere was a slight there were a few people looking for a cut, but it certainly was a consensus -- wasn't a consensus decision. the gap between bond yields and inflation is wide, so they have some cushion to work with. some may see the cut as coming early. continues,n india would do this later in the year anyway. it is such a contrast to a year ago, emerging ma

we will get more on that tomorrow when the rba meets.the things going on with the aussie and kiwi is both of these currencies have central banks seen as potentially dovish, even if where they are would tend toward the hawkish side. you can see it dramatically dropped at the end of last year. what the swap premium tells us thatere isn't a perception australian rates will move down, relative to kiwi rates. why has the dollar dropped so far? shery: gold seems to be back in focus. ther years of being on sidelines, gold producers are in the limelight again. >> gold in the limelight and gold producers with it. the turnaround in the price of gold is a big part of the story. that is part of what went around in the background to make this big merger deal late last year. the turnaround in gold has been driven by the turnaround. the dollar is no longer acting as a haven. that is transformed the picture for gold producers. we've seen how gold producers have taken off. that is potentially good for australian new crest mining. that is one of the compa

the reaction to the rba yesterday was short-lived.k the dollar is on pace for its biggest gain since august 10. year, thert of the dollar was falling, but because of weakness in the peers is boosting it. is the dollar again a haven trade? it will be interesting as growth concerns come in. as concerns and trade might be what is hitting the msci asia-pacific mud down the most in about a month. nikkei leading declines. the other market story is iron ore. price,bidding up the over $90 right now, the highest price since 2014. the real market story we have our eye on is the rally in asian bonds. we have the u.s. 10 year yield and australia. australia is sinking lower along with new zealand. the lowest on record. a lot of this drop is central-bank action, but perhaps a bit of a risk off move looking for safety in asian bond markets. 1 we approach the march deadline for tariffs. >> president trump says he will not meet his chinese counterpart ahead of the u.s. tariffs. they will not strike a deal before the truce brokered last year. house is

as you say, it's all about the rba.he governor of the rba making a speech saying he's shifting more to a neutral outlook. it since the aussie dollar plummeting more than 1%. the biggest loss in about a month. that's a shift from over here when the rba didn't make any change in their rate decision. that allowed some rally to come. but with asian markets closed and no fresh trade headlines for policye central bank really is what is dominating traders today. everybody is out on holiday, at least most asian markets. what will greet them when they return? there might be a case of selling the rally when they do get back. that's because the msci asia-pacific index is heading into overbought territory. it's about to cross over into 70 which is overbought at 69.4. we are getting really close. return to get a trading, the rally that is drifting slightly higher may not sustain itself. much. thank you so let's get the bloomberg business flash from dubai. bnp has lowered its forecast for revenue and profitability as france path bigg

he is the one who really opens the door, a movement is possible. >> rba slashing its for your forecasts forecast, this is quite a slashing. what's behind the cut? >> of has happened basically is that the statistics bureau has revised its consumption estimates downward. it looks a lot more like -- i think the rba senses it's perhaps not as bad as with the numbers are showing, but nonetheless, they have to incorporate them. ♪ >> india's central bank has unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate, becoming the first in asia. predicted by just 11 of 48 economists surveyed. what prompted them to cut rates? >> they had an inflation number that had been consistently falling. gdp came in at 2.2% in december. policyve the monetary committee room to cut interest rates. the other thing that is taking place is the monetary policy committee will also shift to neutral. the bond markets are doing positively on the back of the outflow, so the last couple weeks bond traders have been spooked by this huge, record borrowing after the budget of last week announced that large farm report program. ♪ >> bb&t has an

these cut the forecasts we've seen from the rba. mark: cut the forecasts from the rba was shocking.he most shocking part was how bizarrely high the forecasts were in the first place, 3.25% for the year ending totals in 2019, which is bizarrely high. the consensus was 3%. 2019 was 2.7%.as the fact they had forecasts of 3.25% was bizarre. they had cuts, which seems bizarrely negative suddenly, but it needs to be in context. the large slashing because they were topped out in the first place. there have been a few bits out of negative news in the rba. it has hit the aussie badly. that's one currency i got wrong. i thought the aussie was starting to build a base. it is starting to be very negative. that ways into the iron ore story. aussie is trading so badly, given the timely export is soaring.in many ways , is saying the currency market doesn't believe the move higher is going to sustain. it means it's a temporary issue and in the weeks ahead, iron or will come back higher. it's unlikely this divergence is sustainable. matt: mark, i want to get to you on the mliv question of the day, w

it is really keeping the rba on hold for now.o indonesia because we are expecting think indonesia to make a rate decision. no changes expected but could we see a dovish turned given the rest of the central banks around the world? >> maybe not yet. the rupiah is under less pressure than it was toward the middle of last year. 12.5%.p to 55% -- that has taken the pressure off. there is no need to keep that hawkish rhetoric after the fixed increases last year to protect the rupiah as indonesia was failing that -- feeling that pressure. it changed with the pause. we have got to get clarity on how long that will be. but at the moment we will see bank indonesia continuing to stay ahead. they don't want a renewal of pressures. they have got a wide current account gap that leads them -- leaves them vulnerable should markets swing again. on hold to 6%, that is what economists we are serving expect and no real shift in buyers yet. managingr asia economy editor malcolm scott. theresa may facing a new threat to her authority with some of her

we mentioned those growth forecasts being/fight the rba -- slashed by the rba. .5%, $.70 dollar down right now. the rupiah, the market just opening up. we are expecting current account numbers to come through. we expect to see a deficit. we will see if that has pressure to the rupiah. that dollar strength creeping into commodities. we see this rally and commodities. up 3.4% when it comes to singapore futures. the market is confused about dam dame disaster. one analyst maintaining $100 for iron ore. oil set for the worst weekly loss, $52 for wti. , a bid acrossts the board in asia. australia is one to watch. we mentioned that premium u.s. treasuries have with the aussie 10-year at the white as we have seen in decades. down overall in australia. this goes with the story we saw in bond markets overnight. let's look at the boards when it came to global developed markets. japan, germany down five basis cut their the eu growth forecast for major economies, like germany and italy here in also down seven basis points. 2.65% for u.s. 10 year yields. we see pressure for lower yields given thes

now we are talking about double rba cuts. what is your take? call was made in 2011 for rate cuts, and they were right. not everyone will agree with it. the rba has been consistent saying there is an equal chance of rates going up or down. vote when you have a good track record of someone like westpac saying there is a rate cut coming, it may not be long before you see other banks following the same path westpac is taking. >> how about the impact on the rest of thanks in asia? mark: in india, they have cut rates already. it is a big contrast to last year when we saw a rates go higher. when you look at somewhere like malaysia, inflation has come down really well. they have been on hold for some time. their economy could use some help. >> indonesia will stand pat at 6. mark: the same thing is going on there. inflation is under control. the currency has stabilized nicely. indonesia possibly looking for a rate cut as well. >> it is decision day in indonesia. we will know in a couple hours. >> let's bring in our next guest joining us here in hong kon

as soon as this trade issue gets cleared up, that removes one uncertainty for the rba.aidi: thank you so much for that, katie, our bloomberg fx and rates reporter, taking a look at the yuan and the effects of the aussie. let's look at the early movers in sydney. sophie? sophie: we do have corporate travel management the best performer so far on the asx 200, jumping more than 15% on the back of its results that it is looking to guidance after reporting a net profit increase of 27%. klimbing the most -- a2 mil rising the most since october. this after the company says it does not see headwinds in china. fortescue gaining ground this morning, up about 5%. first half income beating, but a miss on revenue and is at $1.2 billion. looking at some laggards this morning. we are keeping an eye on domino's pizza. the lower end of the guidance for same-store sales to be within the guidance. that is down by 7.7%. crown resorts under pressure after a reported flat profit and the soft and to 2018. coles group is under pressure this morning. we do have the company stock being cut to un

with a callng out that expects the rba to cut twice this year. the guy that made that call, some thing of a bond guru down in australia. thatd this story as well industries and china were blocking imports of australian coal. a lot coming for overnight for the aussie dollar. draft: china offering to u.s. agricultural goods comes as the latest high-level talks kick off in washington this morning. you can see the pictures there from just a little earlier on. we are joined by michael, bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. we already knew china was offering to buy more soybeans. what is the latest offering from china as part of the memoranda of understanding? thatel: this report is china has agreed to buy $30 billion more. but what exactly we are talking about, soybeans in 2017, we sold them about $24 billion worth. that was the last clean read on what their demand is. their demand is not going to go up $30 billion a year. what they might do is agreed to buy more from the u.s. and less from other places. we don't know. that rem

a speech overnight livered by governor low from the rba -- he took the rba in being more neutral. much more patient, one might argue. you can see the effect into the aussie overnight. just trillion dollar trading down by 1.4%. australian dollar trading down by 1.4%. muche: over here, not movement in markets. the state of the union did not have an immediate effect, positive or negative. but we are still in peak earnings season, and the game makers are having an interesting day. why? "fornite." take two interactive down almost 11%. takes one gamet for these companies to be massive moves. when it comes to skyworks solutions, that story is interesting. it is all about broadband and 5g , with a price target upgrade, and an upgrade of rating at goldman sachs. we see that is causing a 12% hike. in the dow, which is also negative, but only barely, we are seeing positive movement from some of the bigger industrials. guy: we mentioned a moment ago italy has issued long-dated bonds today. it is a syndicated bond market offering, a third-year tranche. a really cheeky push into the market afte

the kiwi dollar is holding steady ahead of the rba policy decision.e are seeing futures point to gains. the nikkei 225 could continue to rebound from a one-month low. we are seeing the asx 200 on the downside because we are seeing reactions from earnings. i want to highlight, as much as 10% earlier this morning. this after the results. we did see the company say it's fiscal 2019 performer growth is around 9% higher on year-over-year basis. twe are seeing a decline of that stock so far this morning. this after saying its for your outlook is coming in at the low end of guidance. that is bapcor. sliding aftereing the company posted a first-half loss. the company has said that it has received a nonbinding bid for parties for takeover. i want to hang on an optimistic note. rising about 6.5%. this after seeing a first-half profit growth of 199%. coming in higher by 147% as the company has raised its fiscal 2019 guidance. haidi: sophie kamaruddin with the latest in sydney. trading gets underway. let's get you to the first word news with jessica summers. issi

this, as the rba moves towards a dovish stance. today,eco-agenda checking in on the line number. malaysia numbers for december, fourth quarter data from china and hong kong due this monday. haidi: sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. let's get you caught up to date with the first word news. su: retail and catering sales during the lunar new year holiday rose more than 8% from a year ago to $150 billion. cctv says revenue from tourism was also higher. up 8%, more than $76 billion. trade dispute with the u.s. has the chinese economy under restraint but consumer confidence remains robust. onto the u.k. prime minister theresa may will ask parliament this week to give her more time to renegotiate brexit, promising lawmakers a further chance to take control. she will ask the comments to reaffirm his desire to remove the irish backstop from the withdrawal agreement. if she does not come up with a new deal by february 27, parliament will have another vote. observers, including the imf, are increasingly concerned. a whether it ends well, smooth custom unions, or the result of a brutal exit on

some speculation that a hawkish comment from the rba will drive the aussie dollar to rally higher.ome on bloomberg -- daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: haidi stroud-watts in sydney. sherry: i'm shery on. welcome -- shery ahn. welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ shery: --haidi: asia-pacific stocks look for a modest monday, with strong u.s. data and positive comments on trade. trump is optimistic among reports he will be meeting with xi jinping at the end of the month. shery: big lenders brace for impact as the royal commission finishes its report on financial misconduct. haidi: here's a su keenan with the first word news. su: president trump is reportedly ready to meet his chinese counterpart in vietnam. the south china morning post says they may host two days of talk on the 27th and 28th. the idea was floated that the trade talks would be in washington. the president said progress was being made, but no final deal what happened until he met with xi. the times says the u.k. may withdraw $78 million support for nissan after it decided not to build the new suv there. the company says

the rba governor says a ban would not damage the economy. >> we're talking about the block in a couple of months of coal imports, that is not going to derail the australian economy. if it were to be a sign of deterioration in the underlying political relationship between australia and china, it would be much more concerning. to kind of way to see what the underlying issues are. >> right. that's put it over to beijing with our china correspondent. also, out of singapore to talk about it is james poole in singapore. tom, let's start with you. trade talks later today. we are just getting online right now that it will be taking place between president trump at 2:30 p.m. i would imagine that is very early asian time. what should and what can be expected? tom: that is really the focus for today, that conversation between the vice premier who has been leading the negotiations on the chinese side with president trump in washington. we're going to be watching that closely. what we have heard is they have been working the two sides on five maybe six mou's around things like intellectual property

the rba shifted to a neutral outlook. singapore higher. is the first day of trade since the lunar new year break. the philippines have just come online. japan now down. despite big gainers in tokyo today including softbank. up as much as 18% after the founder actually had the biggest ever buy back in history. some markets in the region still closed for noon -- lunar new year celebrations. keenan and that's the first word. ♪ david: where did the name "virgin" come from? richard: one of the girls laughed and said, are you a virgin at business? david: did she get a finder's fee for that idea or not? [laughter] david: you begin building other companies. richard: the only reason we would go into a new sector is if we felt it was being badly run. david: is there something in your life you have not achieved? richard: we are on the verge of finally, finally fulfilling that dream, the virgin galactic spaceships going to space. david: now you are a sir, you were knighted. richard: i was slightly nervous that it would be a slice at the head rather th

taking a look at the currencies,aussie rba decision. also getting some confidence injection through the services pmi coming in higher. ♪ david: you were nominated to be a chairman of the fed by president trump. is being chair all that it's cracked up to be? [laughter] david: people thought that perhaps two rate increases were part of your plan for 2019. jay: there is no plan. we can be patient and flexible. david: maybe the president will have a meeting with you. have you received that invitation yet? jay: nope, no invitation. david: you would be happy to accept it, right? jay: i'm not aware of anybody not accepting it. david: ok. [laughter] >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way. alright. ♪ david: i don't consider myself a journalist. and nobody else would consider myself a journalist. i began to take on the life of being an interviewer even though i have a day job of running a private equity firm. how do you define leadership? what is it that mak

that is something which the rba has been very wary about before. and sydney housing markets are slowing down. there is certainly headwinds there. nejra: it comes back to the global conundrum of where inflation is. again, cano ask you the world escape the low rates trap that japan is stuck in? it has been 20 years since zero interest rates. what is your answer to this question? jane: i think the answer is no. japan is the most extreme example. if we look at labor there, extremely tight labor market. there is anecdotal evidence of coffee bars in tokyo shutting down. australia,ing this the u.s. it is surprising that you are not seeing this more wage inflation.you come up empty at k as another example . very tight labor market. the bank of england has been wrongfooted by the fact that wage inflation has not come through. we are already in the cycle whereby we cannot create the wage inflation that we have seen in previous economic cycles. nejra: what about china? some people have said to me there is going to be an inflationary impulse. area where wethe

for the day, up by 1/10 of a percent as tightening remains in effect from the rba. taking a look at u.s. futures. we will call them flat right now. trump'swatch president state of the union address live right here on bloomberg television. coverage starts at 12:30 p.m. sydney time, 9:30 a.m. for viewers in hong kong and china. you won't want to miss it. it is happening in exactly one hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: when you were a young boy, did you say, i want to be chairman of the federal reserve board? alan: [laughter] david: you were called by many the maestro for being such a great maestro of the economy? alan: i always got too much of the credit. david: you made your key decisions in the bathtub in the morning? alan: i was writing speeches in the bathtub. david: were you surprised by the amount of criticism you received at that point? alan: nobody forecast the 2008 crisis. david: do you see any movement to solve the deficit and debt problem? alan: i see a lot of talk. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was f

a hint of dovishness but still some optimism from the rba. this is bloomberg. david: if you could be a great athlete or you could be the ceo of an athletic apparel company, what would you rather do? kevin: i would take ceo every day of the week. maybe not every day of the week. [laughter] david: stephen curry, great basketball player, if he comes over your house, does he let you win? kevin: if i won a game against stephen curry that would be a problem. david: you're in the apparel business. kevin: that jacket lets you recover your muscles faster. david: i'm feeling the blood flowing already. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but all right. david: i don't consider myself a journalist. nobody else would consider myself a journalist. i began to take on the life of being an interviewer even though i have a day job of running a private equity firm. how do you define leadership? what is it that makes somebody tick? thank you for sending over these shoes. i got it. thank you for this. how come you're not wearin

i'm not sure if the rba is ready to say they will go ahead and cut.a make about a disconnect between what the fed will likely do and what the market is expecting the fed to do, which is nothing. >> what we have seen in the last two months is the markets and president trump can put and exert a significant amount of pressure on the fed. you basically have the u.s. treasury partially [indiscernible] a lot of concerns coming up from china. china's policy engine has turned definition -- turned dovish. tot sends a strong signal the fed that not all is right in the global economy. news for ouring audience. if you are not watching the super bowl, we have a winner. the patriots win the 2019 super bowl here against the rams. really securing their sixth super bowl for the new england patriots once again. some are saying that he was is appointing given how the numbers pointed, lowest scores in history. let's bring back to central banks. that is more important here. [laughter] dan, i want to talk about the -- report. we are seeing the fact that the labor market co

we are waiting to hear from mario draghi as well as the rba ministers as well to give us an idea whether synchronized turn to dovishness. minutes are the hefty us to material -- heftyist material. thrust, thecure the tilt that is initiated, stewart stewardedpherded -- and shepherded. there is a core group of three or four people that really steer the discussion. their influence goes beyond whether they are a near vote or non-vote at any type of the cycle. clarinet'-- vice chair clarida's comments, the whor, and chad coldwater runs the open market desk, a plumbing job but a vital job. there was some speculation we would continue to see a strengthening dollar just because the fed had turned dovish but at the same time all other central banks are turning dovish as well. expect otherly central banks to say [indiscernible] the fed? tough call. is a it is a good question. the fed sets the tone in terms of monetary response to a slowing global economy grew whether that means they have to out fed the fed, you may say the reserve bank of india put a down payment on that. the fed has enabled many

have seen the australian starting to hint, the kiwi's overnight, i think it was yesterday that the rba cutting twice. what about here in europe it is increasingly starting to feel the evidence of the slowdown becoming more concrete. it was only a temporary factor for such a long time, but it does not feel so any long. >> europe is the area where you have the consistent disappointment in the data, rather than the u.s. where it is stable. it needs a little bit of a slowdown, but europe is where you have the weakness. vonnie: what is your forecast -- doesn't happen and if so, when? the ecb, the developments we see in europe in the markets from an equity market perspective, we have an underweight because of the weakness and the cycle in europe and also because of a little euro weakness. that is mainly a function of the u.s. policy there as the ecb does not do very much. the strength of the u.s. dollar 4%, and about 110 for the euro. vonnie: what happened to me get a tit-for-tat headline, this morning it was europe looking to target caterpillar and xerox, very specific companies if u.s. tak

the rba governor

reporter: you mean the rba, by the way? r.b.i. of india. reporter: right, sorry. we are having global central banks across the board, almost, and indeed, european central bankers starting to think about it. this is a reaction to slower growth. vonnie: speaking of which, mark carney has very harsh words on brexit. that it is already being priced in. it is already having a major impact. what happens when we are supposed to actually be out? reporter: i think the body language i got from carney is he saying guard was about come or no outcome, this is really .tarting to take an impact the fact that it is dragging on and no one can guess what is going to happen, any eventuality is possible. that is real uncertainty, starting to hit not just the outlying investment decisions from afar, but overall spending and business as a whole, which is it going to go away. that is a permanent downgrade to gdp as an effect, and that is why they had to cut growth forecasts. this is quite an aggressive move we are seeing. we saw the european commission cutting savagely, but the banks al

got a lot of uncertainty about what the rba could do.n terms of currency, swedish krona, another -- activity there as well. should you be changing opinions on where currencies are going? our rates in currencies as correlated as they used to be? jane: the answer would be of course. a fundamental textbook drive of foreign exchange but what we have learnt particular of the last couple years is politics. the trump era in the u.s. but more than that in europe, we have populism and the european parliamentary elections are test of howa litmus much populism is driving politics in europe or has the potential to drive politics in europe and for how much it is going to have an impact on policies and foreign-exchange rates going forward. politics is huge now for foreign-exchange. we cannot ignore that. of themain a stable foreign-exchange market. guy: thanks very much. v,onnie?y joining us vonnie: here is courtney donohoe. courtney: from vladimir putin during his annual state of the nation speech, he signaled russia will aim new weapon that the u.s.

guy: a big mover earlier for the aussie dollar, as the rba held rates.reasing data coming out of australia signals another , butis being hinted at increasingly less likely. should we price in a cut? already is the market for that? steven: it is moving in that direction. the curve is not assuming that they will raise interest rates, so the market is already moving in that direction. and that has moved in that direction -- and data has moved in that direction. it is not a move specific to australia, in some sense it may be one of the last ones to hold onto the hope that rates can still rise. but i detect that is slipping a little bit. there were comments from the government to say that the downside risks are increasing and i think that is in the data, particularly from the house inside. it seems more likely that -- but at the same time they have been stable for a long time. and that could really just persist. as far as the australian dollar is concerned, you could say that is good because interest rates are relatively high in australia, and not coming down

'rba rhtfteet us as well wee ckig aer this. >>> traders are answering your questions.s from mark in connecticut. cvs, what do you do here on pace for its worst day since november of 2016 >> oh, god i know mark, cvs is trying to transition from a brick and mortar to a clinic company it's going be a tough onand long transition i think they have a lot to do. we would not be owners or it here >> would you buy home depot into earnings >> i would not i own the stock. that's one of the names i got rid of in the last few days. it's had such a dramatic move since the sell off i'm waiting for next opportunity. >> jon, best buy, earnings next week what do you do >> end of january this one got its price target cut it looks like it wants to push lower still into the earnings. they're buying a lot of 60 puts right now. they have been for the last several days this is not a don't touch but let's wait on this one >> joe, your turn from leonardo. dollar tree. what are you expecting >> dollar general is pushing towards an all time high dollar tree, march 6th they paid down $780 million

all kind of things coming into the mix, including westpac saying it expects the rba to be cutting rates twice this year, a very bold call. vonnie: stocks in the u.s. are still lower, off their lows right now. the s&p 500 down 0.5%. the nasdaq down about 7/10 of 1%. up 7% to 8%. it is one of the companies that says it is not seeing any issues from the china trade dispute. they produce lithium, among other specialty chemicals and things mined from the ground, and supplies samsung and other people who make mobile phones. that is in line with what caterpillar said yesterday. h&r block is another stock that typically does well around this time of year, up 2.5% today. bloomberg intelligence analysts are saying more people will go to h&r block this year because it is confusing, refunds down 7%, and more people will go to the tax preparer. guy: looks like there's pressure on both sides of the atlantic. let's talk about the brexit story. there was a rumor earlier this week that we were potentially going to see a breakthrough when it came to the irish backstop, and potentially theresa may could t

i want to mention is this screeching u-turn, some would argue, similar to the fed coming out of the rba and australia. a huge move being represented in the aussie as well. there is a segue into what is happening with the mining segment right now. this is the european mining flirting with pb a bull market. we are seeing a huge updraft in the price of iron ore. if you take a look at the rsi, we are firmly back in overboard territory. vonnie: president trump's state of the union address talked up by partisanship while sticking with white house demands to build a border wall. have a listen. pres. trump: we must reject the politics of revenge, resistance, and retribution and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise, and the common good. now republicans and democrats must join forces again to confront an urgent national crisis. we have a moral duty to create an immigration system that protects the lives and jobs of our citizens. in the past, most of the people in this room voted for eyewall -- for a wall. but the proper wall never got built. i will get it built. [applause] v

we at rba we focus on profits, liquidity and sentiment and sentiment is going up which was contrarianegative at the same time fundamentals are getting weaker. la request liquidity is tightening up and out look for growth continues to weaken. mineful of revenue growth versus earnings growth. the reason earnings growth expectations come down more than revenue growth because of negative operating leverage. and that is a negative thing. so if you look at the growth outlook, sales growth is set to slow this year so that is not accelerating, it is slowing. if you look at margins they're set to slow. doesn't mean market will go down a lot but clearly things are getting weaker. you need a catalyst for reacceleration. charles: real quick, erin, just less than a minute, 475 of the s&p 500 stocks are up. 200 are up more than 10%. >> the breadth. charles: absolutely amazing. financials are having a great day, goldman, morgan stanley, that segment can get the market higher if it gets its act together. everyone said last january of the a lot of people made the same bet this year. i think you like f

rba governor says it is unlikely rates will rise this year, but -- is not a predetermined course. testifying in parliament, he says there may be a need for a cut if there is sustained unemployment and a lack of progress for the inflation target. probability it is up and the probability it is down is more evenly balanced than six months ago. >> spacex has launched, taking three into orbit including an airport force -- air force class and israeli lunar lander. spacex said a company record last year with 21 customer launches. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: olivia howe, thank you. the 5g era, the battle for the next generation of the global networks comes to barcelona, as does huawei. monday, i'll he speaking with ceos and the following day, i'll be joined by the vice-chairman of armed holdings. don't miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i nejra cehic in london. we have seen a little risk off in the asian session yest

i am focusing on the aussie, reversing losses, it dropped on retail sales but gained after the rba technchanged. we did not get the dovish tilt some were expecting. back from losses, we look ahead to crude inventories tomorrow and in the oil sector, it is bp you want to focus on in terms of european earnings, adjusted that coming in at a strong beat, copper on a tear, up 8% -- .8%. today we are asking the question on mliv, will trump's state of the union speech move markets? the bloomberg business flash, dudley humphrey has that in dubai. >> ims is suspending its dividend and postponing plans for a secondary listing in hong kong. this as company's first quarter misses estimatet . an uncertain macroeconomic environment. the stock is falling. the cryptocurrency world has a new problem, and exchange with its assets locked way because of the death of its chief executive. they cannot retrieve $145 million worth of digital tokens, and lost access to the digital wallet with the death of the ceo in december. he was obsessed with security, his widow says his passwords and other records cannot be

the central banks stand and where they have changed in terms of their stance even just recently the rba, reserve bank of australia, has changed india just changed you a eurozone outlook just got changed. >> it's a lousy -- actually there are very few good rodney dangerfield movies. >> the fact we're spending this much time on rodney dangerfield movies is disturbing >> he gets no respect. >> back to central banks easing around the world. >> that has been a catalyst for markets to go higher, no question not to get off track, but that's one of the reasons we should still be doing what we're doing. we should still be moving forward, because as everybody weakens their currency, we have an opportunity to strengthen our foundation and strengthen our currency i digress for a second i think at a certain point you're going to hit a point the minimum marginal returns in terms of central bank activity i think we're pretty close now you can only go to that well so many times before the market starts to call you and i think we're about there. >> let's go to mega cap tech >> mega, not maga. >> a stren

the rba adding fuel to the slowdown.k dhar, chief economist at bny mellon investment management. will continue his conversation on bloomberg radio at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. let's get you up to speed with the first word news. olivia how is joins us from london -- olivia joins us from london. olivia: not necessarily its rate hikes. minutes from the january meeting show almost all policymakers agreed it is best to halt it this year. officials were divided over what it would take them to raise rates again. there was no suggestion of a cut. there are finally signs of agreement between the u.s. and china. bloomberg has learned to sides are working on multiple memoranda of understanding that would form the basis of a final trade deal. it is expected to take longer to reach a final agreement on big structural issues. china's chief negotiators may meet president on friday. the u.s. and e.u. are still far from a deal to avoid auto tariffs according to a man who described the contentious exchange. have arguedd to over trade policy. h

utility staples leading the way on what is a slightly down day 'rba itwmites.king] ♪ ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering. i cowe can do theyour screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. investment opportunities beyfirsthand, like biotech.ne because your investments deserve the full story. t. rowe price invest with confidence. they seem to be the very foundation of your typical bank. capital one is anything but typical. that's why we designed capital one cafes

not following in the footsteps of the rba in the fed, turning more dovish. when hundred 29.here has been talk in brussels of a long brexit delay. manus: there's no doubt about it, what i found interesting is, this is a defining moment from the allianz advisor. he wants to be long america are divergent strain. the biggest three-day gain in almost a month because trade talks in tariffs may push past march 1. debbie tias rebounding from a two-week low and saudi an eraion is back to undoing all that good production work. debra mao is with us from hong kong. remindedder has investors that bonds can come at nasty surprises. saying it was given option to call 1.5 billion euros of notes next month. the announcement came right at the deadline for a decision. the bank cited the need to balance interests of all investors. to cut an is trying percent of staff as part of a companywide restructuring. this after the videogame maker delivered a disappointing sales forecast and reported revenue of $2.8 billion, missing the $3 billion projected by analysts. activision said sales of some of it

moving thisollar regarding the weakness in some of the data we got out of australia and focusing on the rbawhich did take -- did not take a turn to the dovish side. iron ore has been volatile since the collapse in the mining. many mixed trading day but markets are closed for the lunar year -- new year. the dollar and treasury yields stabilized after gains. let's get a look at the markets with mark cudmore, our bloomberg markets live strategist in singapore. i was referencing one year since the terminal -- turmoil. pretty similar to the fixed levels we saw in december. we got more used to volatility. the calm feels a little eerie. are: absolutely, markets directionless. themes that depend around china. that is the u.s.-china trade policynd how china's feeds into re-stimulating. we are lacking a little bit of direction and that is why we will get some impetus from trumps state of the union. even though it should not be the deciding policy, it should not drive markets, it probably will this time given that there is a lack of drivers elsewhere. what do you think about trump dinner with jay powe

there is the potential rate cut coming up on the rba side. policy is not going to be good news. i would not be surprised if they traded low-fare value. that is about 4.69. the aussie is not expected to go anywhere, if not a little bit weaker given what i mentioned on domestic slowing activity. that is something that we are following quite closely. shery: thank you for joining us. coming up, warren up his bet on .anks and j.p. morgan more on the findings, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: this is "daybreak: asia." in the u.s., it is deadline day for hedge funds to disclose their equity investments for the fourth quarter of 2018. these are the findings with the sec that give us a look into what is in and out of favor. funds were all about protecting their past performance. risk,because of all the it was down by about 14%. it was during the financial crisis. no surprise that hedge funds were pulling out, in particular the technology stocks, apple, amazon and google all in the crosshairs. millennium also reduced. amazon, millennium pulled ou

the rba has kept the cash rate unchanged and says there is no case for changing anytime soon. productionays week will probably total 7.3 trillion up from the official forecast of 17 million tons. had a shortfall in eastern states. eastern australian futures have slipped almost 8% this year. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm haidi stroud-watts. this is bloomberg. david: coming up on the program, we are talking honda, hitting the brakes in britain and putting the blame on brexit. we discussed what that means for british and japanese automakers. rishaad: will a slowdown in the united states make a bullish case for emerging-market equities? this is bloomberg. ♪ david: welcome back. have a look at these equity markets. slightly more green, not as much as yesterday, but of about 0.1%. drifting higher is the way we are framing what is happening now. rishaad: absolutely. we've still got morgan stanley strategist jonathan garner. last year, some dollar liquidity issues that we

>> i think the central banks, including rba, are still holding onto the view that the next move is aning, juncture i would say that if you are a policymaker in most countries, most of the time you won't be looking at interest rates. of course india was an exception, but i think most countries, you find that the explanation is pushing more towards fiscal spending, to increase rates. if that's the case, then i would affect theseould currency outlooks. especially if it crosses, is not considered positive. philip, you think the fed and china are walking away from tightening and other central banks will follow. for now, there are still some currencies or countries with a consensus that we could see rate hikes this year. rates, it comes to will probably be neutral at this point, because the biggest it could be brexit. the uncertainty is unprecedented, and we are beginning to see life coming out, warning that we don't know enough about the impact. pullback, ina brexit was cited as one of the reasons it could cause some disruption in financial markets. london is the top financial center in th