the rba, leaving rates on hold. yields pick up on the 10 and aussie dollar spiked to a two-week high. let's look at other markets because you've seen a little buying coming through in mainland chinese equities today. the shanghai, closing the session firmer by a third of 1%. hong kong holding up ok after carrie lam came through pledging more measures to the city after a shocker of a retail trade print yesterday. the nikkei closed lower by .6% and we saw a pickup in japanese bond yields. it was the worst option for 10 year since august 2016. nejra: juliette saly, thank you. back to our top story on trade and tariffs. president trump has reinstated tariffs on argentinian and brazilian steel and aluminum. he has accused the latin american countries of devaluing their currencies. manus: indeed. brazil and argentina have become alternative suppliers of soybeans and other agricultural to china amid the trade war. let's take a listen to what the president said after landing in london for the nato conference. really discoun

we forecast to more rate cuts for the rba next year. may have to rely on qe for more policy support. less supportive for the aussie dollar next year. shery: of urse we have the u. elections that support the british pound. take a look at this gt be chart on the bloomberg. we have the sterling breaking resistance falling below the key level of 85, the lowest since 2017. how is this trend going into 2020? will you consider that perhaps the euro area could and if it from better asia data that could lead to appreciation, not to mention with the u.k. economy souring, we could see the boe moving to the downside? we do believe in those positives that you highlighted for the euro area we think. in china stabilization and asia is positive for europe. we also expect there are growing signs of fiscal stimulus, which can be positive for the currency. we do have a positive outlook on euro. see modest appreciation next year. the comfortable majority the conservative party has come up with in the latest election aaves us with a path to smooth brexit. w

where do you see the rba headed?here is mixed news on whether we will reach the threshold for qe in australia. them to takeect the cash rate to 25 basis points. we have a formal forecast set by fourth quarter of 2020, the bank will be implementing a qe policy. paul: the rba typically has optimistic growth forecasts. it has been revised down. has been -- has the approach been -- sally: they are caught between two worlds where they have a preventative forecast that shows conviction they will get back to better growth and inflation and the unemployment rate will come down. the underlying story is that achieving those targets is givenult, particularly the structural headwinds the economy is facing. i feel we are in a pattern where every quarter or six months, we see the rba push back the return to trend growth and a higher inflation rate or downgrade forecasts. we will wait to see what happens in february but we need to see the activity data start to lift for the rba to be comfortable that the current set of forecasts ar

the rba does seem reluctant to do that.teps -- the qe to occur. the rba does seem reluctant to do that. the effect of lower bound in so first ofs .25%, all, we are expecting rates to fall to that point. forecast, we are expecting ratesa to lower by mid next year. is good chance that qe will follow. shery: the rba wanted to assess the long and variable lags of easing delivered so far. when are we going to start seeing that? janu: that is a good question. the rba is right that it does take time for monetary policy to actually do its job. statement that they do think monetary policy does have some of fact, and the fact that we have seen house prices lift, there is that scope for rising household -- house prices to flow on for stronger consumer spending. that is one mechanism in which monetary policy works. it takes time for that to occur. the rba does seem as though it wants to wait and see for that through. are we still see that there those headwinds despite the stimulus particularly around the consumer sector. wage growth is

rba decision day. they are expected to keep rates on hold.acing the australian economy are still there. markets incross the asia, let's get to the action. is off, declines of more than 1% for tokyo stocks. 1.25%.225 up -- off by latest, traders waiting for a tenure option as we keep closer to the 0% level. checking on kospi, off nearly 1%. another market moving towards the lowest since october. revised third-quarter from south korea, we saw 2% year on year growth for that timeframe. pressure, coming under , falling the most since october 3, as much as 1.9% while bonds are extending the kleins pushing the 10 year yield above 1.1%, aussie dollar trading near a two-week high, consolidating ahead of the rba decision. stronger language around further easing. the kiwi dollar losing some momentum after breaking 65 overnight after the biggest jump in nearly two weeks on the back of a fiscal spending plan. pressure.under clinching another acquisition. agreed to drugmaker buy a seattle company. it is a 110% premium for the closing price. sophie kamarud

david: we have the rba -- yvonne: we have the rba last meeting of the year.berg economics has been talking about what could happen. this could be a nonevent. --seems like this could be we are bringing in james mcintyre. governor lowe, are we expecting anything new from him? >> it is unlikely we are going to hear anything new from the central bank before they take their traditional break over the summer and come back to their next meetings in february next year. we have not had an -- a lot of new economic data. they said they do want to make a full assessment before doing anything else with policy after having cut three times since june. the full assessment means gdp which is out tomorrow, but also the cbi, which is out in january. we do think that february is the next chance for actual movement in policy. nothing today. , on top of that was data on the aussie housing market. to be a huge conundrum for the rba. we have other parts of the economy weakening, then you have a housing market coming back. it is kind of like their worst nightmare. >> well, it is. the

rba will need to ease.hese optimistic growth forecasts which get walked back later down the track. what are your expectations? richard: growth and recession risk are two different things. growth is somber. structurally, it is somber. potential growth has come down materially. uses aicial forecast framework which takes a long time to reflect that. that will take some time to come through. recessions are caused by inflation because they force the central bank to keep hiking after growth has started to slow. this time, in a sense, we have the opposite, deflation risk. it would be odd to have a recession under these conditions. the prospect of recession certainly next year with a year after is less than 20%. paul: australia has a track record when it comes to getting out of jail. is that going to be the ticket to escape another recession? richard: my commodity piece of the economy is doing very well. it is a key part of the reason company profits are quite high and the budget is back in surplus or close to bein

the sheep area of concern for the rba.ans describing consumers as being on a spending strike evidence that the banking tax cuts and low interest rates and choosing to pay down debt instead of getting out and spending money. we will get more reaction in the next few minutes to these numbers and other action on the floor. us he will tell us what he thinks growth fears are a bit overdone. australia markets have been trading for half an hour paid him let's get to sophie. consumersstralian still on strike. rba governor says we will see a turnaround today and aussie share markets. consumer staples and can discretionary shares leading higher. gaining into cash trade. no want to highlight the stock rising about 5% this morning after seeing there is no takeover proposal existing as reported. let's chicken in on the w cr function. illustrating what is happening with the pound. all g10 peers, losing ground against euro as well. off by 4/10 of 1%. this on the back of the polls showing the tories lead narrowing. hasy: november jobber s

this is not the only data since the rba put out there november forecast. wages was soft.ittle on the downside. overall, the pictures looking like one that suggests the economy may be threatening to the downside of the rba's forecast. in his speech, he indicated 0.25 is there lower band. they have two cuts left to get there. they will be patient be on that point. i think we are starting to see increasing signs that the data, the early data, is not lining the way the rba hoped. haidi: the reliance on exports and reliance on the growth of china is well documented with this economy. how much is australia meaningfully suffering from the trade war? james: it depends. one of the things that has come through while china has instituted its own policies to keep its domestic economy going has been the stimulus which is supported on oil prices. that is one of the key linkages. between a trade war asked -- trade war perspective are a little different. the key impact is more on the confident side of things. that is where we see indicators like in last week's data with those investment

you're looking at some of the potential christmas cheer for the rba. >> absolutely.y 40,000 jobs created in the overall economy down under in the month of november, enough to send the unemployment rate back down to 5.2% from 5.3%. we knew look at the chart, you can see that inflation is very much below what the rba is looking for. holding at around 1.7% at the moment. bloomberg economics says if you look under the hood, the aussie labor market is still slowing and that's reflected in the participation rate. that will put pressure on the .overnment looking at money markets, pricing in a 45% chance of another rate cut when the rba next meeting february. unemployment ticked back down to 5.2%. nejra: you're looking at bond yields in india with some weakness in the equity market, but yields are moving higher. why? agam: bond prices have fallen, snapping a gaining streak with an increase in yields moving up to around 6.4%. rbareason is that governments have indicated a possibility be a -- of a wider fiscal deficit. gdp growth has been slowing and they want to go ahead and

coming up, we take a look at what the rba easing bias means for the aussie dollar.loomberg. ♪ haidi: this is daybreak: asia. tory: let's turn straight sophie for a check of the markets. sophie: plenty of readings do this monday from around asia. weighing on the aussie dollar, which earlier rose on a surprise rebound. the aussie dollar trading near a six week low. the drag may continue with a private survey of chinese factories expecting to pull back. we will have more australian data point and dissipated throughout the week. third-quarter gdp due on wednesday likely to show tepid growth. more policy stimulus is almost --vitable as deutsche bank the australian economy, just not strong enough. haidi: sophie in hong kong. bloomberg's most accurate forecast for the aussie in the third quarter. sean joins us now. great to have you as always. further to what sophie was mentioning, we saw the brief bump after the positive pmi number. is that enough? does it change the story further aussie, particularly as we have the rba meeting next week. we might have market pricing in t

we would like to see more stimulus because the rba is so constrained.hey have -- they don't have with recorder left low interest rates. it remains to be seen. that is one of the reasons investors have penciled in another interest rate cut for february. paul: on their own at the moment. thank you for joining us. we want to get you an alert from the bloomberg terminal. the enzi i.e. are, a consensus survey of new zealand, published its results. seeing 2019 to 2020 gdp growth at 2.2%, a little weaker than they had forecast. still to come, seeing oil market stabilizing. we will have highlights from our exclusive interview ahead. kathleen: and more clashes in hong kong. carrie lam going to beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ paul: this is daybreak asia. i am paul allen. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. hong kong antigovernment protesters clashed with police after an otherwise peaceful weekend. carrie lam met with top officials in beijing to give a debrief. editor jodi schneider is joining us now. .nteresting juxtaposition carrie lam is explaining somethin

rba is relentlessly focusing on outcomes and under that category here, you see where it says effect and the question we ask, is anyone better off? so if you don't remember anything else from this presentation, i want you to remember three questions that i want you to hold this accountable to every time, which is you want to ask us, how much did we do and how well did we do it and is anyone better off? i'm going to focus on, is anyone better off? i'm going to briefly touch upon those areas, but i'm going to dive into a couple of areas in health impact. you had a presentation on equity so i won't spend any time there. under workforce development, the key metric, percentage of staff recommending ph.d. as a place to work, for service experience, increasing the percentage of our programs that collect service data and use that data to improve services based on what they learn? under the area of financial stewardship, the key one to point out to you is increasing the use of priority setting and resource allocation methods. this is a tool that we use to help set priorities around budgets and tr

the bank of canada and the rba to some degree. day, how farof the will commodities the verge from stocks? as we saw stocks rally in expectation of a phase one deal, commodities have not cap pace. -- kept pace. garfield: part of the story is with the trade deal, everyone is aware the chinese economy will continue to slow, and china is a massive source of demand for all sorts of commodities. if you have a week china, commodities will rally strongly. it has been obvious even crude oil has been reluctant to get involved in some of the trade spike up for other risk assets. there is an underlying concern about how readily demand can rebound. that is part of what is driving it. i expect commodities to continue becauseehind stocks real-world financial assets can centraln by a lot of bank monetary easing that is flowing through the economy. as long as we have this back and forth on trade, it becomes harder for businesses to make concrete decisions or big decisions about to spend money, and that is what needs to flow into commodities. where

questions will the rba need to cut again. they will seeing another to cuts by next year.lds had their biggest one-day drop since the brexit vote. it is not going well and we saw data showing the private sector has had its biggest plunge in terms of pmi since the sars crisis. the november pmi reading coming in at 30.5. this is on the back of those already terrible retail sales figures. really just adding impetus from the government to add a stimulus to the economy. carrie lam saying yesterday there are going to be more measures but we don't have any concrete details. manus: let's see what happens in regards to those measures. to the euro area, it is still not crisis-proof according to this ecb executive board member. he is calling for a strengthening of euro foundations to ensure the region can withstand economic stocks. and we get eurozone pmi data. economy, ours the guest believes that while the global cycle has toughened, the upswing will only be mild. sebastian is from bank of america merrill lynch, this is all about europe. i noticed that the vanguard ftse etf had the

the aussie dollar holding losses after the rba reinforced the inw for its rba rate cut february.ricing at a 59% chance. thailand rates decision. expect it to stay steady as it is stabilizing. we also waiting on japan's november trade data later this morning. nikkei futures pointing lower ahead of that. overall, looking like a soft start of the session after asian shares closed at a high, with fresh eyes across the region including india. right.l ll let's check in with the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: sterling slumped the most since january as fx traders gave a thumbs down to boris johnson's plan to enshrine next december's brexit that led into law. the renewed prospect of a hard split lost all of the gains since last week's conservative election win. money markets waited with the probability of a bank of england rate cut before may, falling back to 50% as before the election. anger continues across india as the government defends a controversial law. it bars undocumented muslims from seeking citizenship while allowing migrants from other religions to do so. a mi

quickly rba having a meeting today. i do think they will cut rates at least once or twice in the next six months or so, so if it's an hour or early next year, they will have to cut rates. they just printed gdp numbers that were quite low at 4.5%, so growth is struggling. you mentioned about the equity markets. a lot of emerging equity markets can tread a high p/t, but what we are really focused on is the fundamentals. for relations to be sustained for a long period of time, you want fundamentals to pick up, and the governments are trying to help growth. haidi: always a pleasure, good to see you. coming up next, democratic presidential candidate elizabeth warren joins us to talk about her tough stance on wall street, the wealth tax, and the trade war with china. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: we want to welcome viewers on bloomberg tv and listeners on bloomberg radio for a special interview. a candidate for u.s. president who is promising to disrupt status quo for wall street. joe weisenthal joins us with the special guest.

ism manufacturing numbers, and on tuesday a rate decision from the rba and u.s. auto sales.sday, euro area finance ministers meet. thursday, german factory orders. friday, the main event, u.s. jobs report. our guests are still with us. there is a question given the central bank support of markets right now, does it even matter what we get with respect to economic data? what is the most important data point that you are focused on? ian: it's the unemployment rate, and the way it blows through at this point in the cycle matters. we see a small uptick in the next four or five months and we probably will face recession in the next 12. lisa: are you also looking at the unemployment rate or does inflation matter and wage gains? iain: i think you need to be looking at the unemployment rate. that is really what people are focusing on. if you see that tick back up it will be a big red light for the federal reserve. i think also we should continue to look at the manufacturing numbers. we had a sharp decline that has reversed. if we can get some stability there, i think people were ver

so, i think, as cameron himself wrote, is not a case of the rba's manipulation of the currency, but io think the currency's underlying strength is part of what pushed the rba to carry out as much easing as they have. anna: central banks always watching the currency, even when they are not watching the currency. garfield reynolds joining us from sydney. you can join the debate. which major asset do you think will move the most in 2020? reach out to us and the markets live team. it's all about the fed and trade. let's get a bloomberg first word news update with viviana vitali in new york. trump may bedonald impeached before christmas, but there is no chance he will be convicted in the u.s. senate. nancy pelosi says it will draft articles of impeachment against the president for abusing his toice by pressuring the u.k. help him win in the 2020 election. more than 3000 allegations of sexual assault. involvingt uber found its drivers. the report was in response to public safety concerns. he was customers taking 1.3 billion journeys in 2018. out of all of those, uber is reporting 50 eight r

there is a school apart that the -- school of thought that the rba could go weaker.wth forecasts percent in october, down from 6.9% already. depending on how sharp the thegrade will be this week, mpc might go for a bigger than expected 25 basis points. aggressive monetary easing is closing. that's the medium session for the r.b.i.. kamil we have a bit of positivity on the futures at the moment. there is some thinking they could shove this all off but these numbers are pretty bad even when you go through them. much are the global markets already taking this into account -- account? >> very good question. but the stock market has diverged from these economic numbers. what people are telling us is that the gdp numbers are weak but not shockingly bad. increasingly confident that the worst is probably behind us. some strongy to see inflows into the market. happyrs will be very because the 25 basis points is probably big if not the bigger one. bond markets will be happy with these numbers. the stock markets are the one to look out for. there are people who are looking at t

the rba holding steady and the be ok, despite low inflation, not acting.ean: we are not so worried about that. we have a forecast for they had to be on hold through 2020. i don't think interest rates need to be cut as long as there is liquidity in the market. need to do other things in korea to get growth going on the fiscal side. a 20 basis point cut would not necessarily do that. india looking for more privatization. those are the sort of areas that we prefer to see than just straight interest rate cuts. data bye have seen bloomberg that south korean stocks are expected to see the most profit growth in asia next year. where are you seeing the opportunities? that's because they fail a lot this year. so we had korean earnings down, particularly in the technology and semiconductor area. it's going to be in technology. that -- mystic earnings are still under pressure paul: paul:. head oflor emerging-market equities at dws. thanks for joining us. still to come, a pop trump impeachment inquiry before christmas. we'll have the latest on the investigation, next.

i think it was 50 basis points or 40 basis points in for rba,ary or a cut from the so maybe markets just got ahead of themselves believing we were talking about recession a few months ago, let's keep on that particular narrative, but the data is not panning out, and again, the data that came out from new zealand earlier is not important in the scheme of things, but it's a number confidence number. if you look at all these numbers coming out over the last couple of weeks, they are not very strong, but they are not recession level members as well. there is some sort of stability bordering on a bit of recovery going on here, and to your point, going back to the original question of u.s. yields, 2%, yes, two and a half percent, no. the pressure could well be on the upside if we continue to see the strong side of the consumer. >> let's get to data out of .urope if you look at the overall manufacturing side of things, and quite deep contraction. 45.9.l i think it is >> europe is a bit of a concern for us because we do have the euro as a potentially good play, owing to the extent that rates hav

we start with the rba governor was saying he is surprised australia's wheat third-quarter consumption, but does not think it points to a sag in spending. the savings ratio jumped. the governor says too many people have too much debt. when that comes down, he thinks they will start spending. >> the surprise was the weakness in consumption growth. in the september quarter, households they get a boost in income from lower interest rates . the surprise was the consumers decided to save that extra income. on a trade deal in north america, u.s., mexican, and canadian officials expect to sign off on changes to the usmca trade deal later today, despite last-minute doubts in washington. it seemed the deal was closer, then house democrats on the verge of a handshake deal, then nancy pelosi said nothing has been agreed to. now u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer will fly to mexico with canadian officials expected to join the talks. hong kong is facing its worst ever economic slump, with thousands of jobs under threat, and shops preparing to close forever. the retail management associatio

that is the first meeting for the rba in the new year. the international monetary fund is set to sharply lower growth forecasts for india amid continued weakness signaled by high-frequency indicators. the imf chief economist says business sentiment has fallen, adding to declines in the overall economy. it has forecast 6.1% growth for india and will review numbers in the new year. iron ore superpower australia expects prices to decline next year. uses.s a pickup in supply orearterly report sees iron at an average of $63 as global lab that. -- global output. a 21% decline be from this year's average price. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am su keenan, this is bloomberg. the boj decision standing pat is expected, but the bank of japan with a lending limit of one year after they left policy untouched due to the stimulus package from prime minister abe. progress in the u.s.-china trade talks and signs of a -- editor is here. no surpri

david: rba was out, hawkish, pushing back on the kiwi. >> the local is not ditching it.ocals will continue to talk about qe. yvonne: they are preparing for. >> right. they took a different spin on it because they said 0.25% is the level that will start thinking about unconventional measures. the rba to the extent possible want to avoid unconventional measures and raise and see the impact of easing which is the sensible thing to do. more in cut rates once 2020 but i think beyond that unconventional measures is not part of our baseline. rishaad: the central bank, is it obboring or interesting when you look at developed markets? >> right now it is pretty interesting given that there is a significant -- rishaad: we are talking less about the fed, because there are limits of monetary policy. the two things come into play. >> when you talk about central-bank policy, maybe it is boring. the ecb will be around. negative interest rates but they will not move by march if you look at 10 year treasury yields and german bunds, there you have a significant risk premium factored in aro

the be ok, the rba not doing more to support their economy. much from emissions do they have left?> that's a good question. our overall take is that central banks in asia do not have a lot of ammunition left, so if global conditions deteriorate in these economies such as korea, germany, new zealand, really do need a lot more additional support, the focus really has to shift away from what central banks can do to support the economy because of the lack of potency in monetary policy, and toward things like what can fiscal policy do, so what can the government do to provide more tailored support to shore up domestic demand if the situation deteriorates and the global economy that then is inherited by these local economies? paul: we have seen some examples of that as well. recently, japan, new zealand promising infrastructure spending. >> we have seen governments, particularly in japan, really step up and take the reins from the bank of japan, so pressure on the bank of japan has really noed so the conversation is longer about what the bank of japan can do or what they should do to rei

the budget back in the black and following the example of japan and new zealand and doing what the rbats to see, that's fiscal stimulus? >> no. we have delivered a significant income tax relief, we provided a significant stimulus to the economy. if you look at our economic growth performance in the first three quarters of 2019, they have been stronger than the last two quarters. we are heading in the right direction. our outlook is positive. we are impacted by what's happening in other parts of the world. to xi jinping, saying hong kong has faced what he most it's grimest and complicated situation since returning to chinese rule in 1997. he urged hong kong to come back to the right path as he hosted chief executive carrie lam in beijing. >> this is after more than six months of unrest in the city. carrie lam has historically low approval ratings in hong kong. last month had a record turnout, 71% of the populace of the citizens who could vote overwhelminglyly candidates. it shows the populist is still behind the movement, and carrie lam has not really responded in a meaningful way, but

pattern,ontinue this it is likely to increase further rba rate cuts and keep pressure on the aussies.you joining us. you can check out the gtv library for those charts we have been talking about and find it at gtv on the terminal. saudi arabia surprised the oil market with deep production cuts. >> the best thing to do is to preemptively lower production to make sure that we could deal with this stalking as we go on to the end of 2020. >> this report was best on analysis of the market. revenuet additional from stabilization of the market. we might end up with a better rewards. everybody realized the fax these cuts are good for us because we are there to tighten. paul: our editor joins us now. how are they likely to react? >> we will see a strong open in asia. the market gets underway. we could see brent crude pushing up towards the $70 a barrel mark which we have not seen since april. we are some way away from that. analystslonger term, are divided on what this means. extral counterbalance the production cut. it rests on the compliance of opec members. saudi's are leaving from the

plus, we have a gauge of australian manufacturers on the low, head of the rba's likely hold tuesday andrter gdp data do from australia wednesday. on theng to check in kiwi, hanging onto earlier gains. some support perhaps from the stronger than forecast terms of trade for the fourth quarter and new zealand's government plan to boost infrastructure planning. expect the kiwi to move to the top of the range. euro,k check on the slightly higher against the pound after a fourth month of losses. thepound drifting lower in asia session after the labour party gained on the tories in four out of five polls ahead of the election. haidi: sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. let's take a look at trading underway. market editoral adam here. one good pmi meeting does not a proper recovery make. is this enough to give another leg up in the rally? reporter: i think that's up for debate still. whether or not people are taking this as a sign or indicator of the global bottoming in the pmi indicators, but also, the service side of the economy holding up. whether it kicks on the rally is a bit of a moot point b

yields coming off the session low as the rba governor says gdp is in line with expectations, but contrivedith weakness and consumption. folks saddled with high debt take longer to spend. the offshore yuan this morning trading around 7.0366. weight on chinese consumer prices and pbi later this morning. investors are setting the tea leaves going into december 15. with the latest developments around the u.s. deal, the mexican peso trading near a three week high with a move towards 19 if it is in the cards. paul: let's get some more on that u.s. mca deal. the next nafta. a: as we have been reporting, a new north american trade deal is a step closer with the trump administration and house democrats on the verge of a handshake deal. that could pave the way for approval this month. the u.s. and sickle have exchanged proposals in a package submitted by house speaker nancy pelosi. the peso extended a five day climb on the news, becoming the second-best performing em currency. as many as 13 people may have been killed and able can a corruption in new zealand. dozens more were injured after two explo

the aussie dollar on the move as a result of what we heard from the rba.ous rate cuts into the economy a little further, and more upbeat than anticipated. money coming out of sovereign debt into the asian session. futures could be positive at the start of trade, but will the ftse 100 go its own way. let's see where these markets are opening up. the pound is stronger, up by 0.2%. that could be reason to see weakness on some of the london listed international sterling earning companies. .our us stocks up by 0.2% the ftse 100 down by 0.2%. the spanish ibex up by 0.2%. the dollar is fairly flat. they moved to the upside to the pound. results from the theiament polls suggest conservatives have a decent lead. as a result the pound is higher. markets will settle down as we deal from a sector perspective. the markets are broadly green but significant areas of red in particular a decent read chunk on the imap this morning. mov screen forhe the stoxx 600 are up, and 180 to the downside. some positivity around european equity markets coming through. .he stoxx 600 up

real estate staples, consumer communication serves 'rba aerhis.ic in the trends driving specific sectors of outperformance. where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry... a leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and e-commerce... trade and travel surge between emerging markets. every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. partner with pgim, the global investment management businesses of prudential. ( ♪ ) sure, the content's easy. but then you have to connect, download, edit, reformat, output, save, send, upload... still uploading... and maybe eventually post. this isn't working. introducing samsung business video solutions. with the galaxy note10, you can shoot, edit and post thumb-stopping videos, all from one device. samsung business solutions. >>> spirit airlines shares are down pete has the trade and another one for us as well let's start with spirit. >> scott, you pointed out exactly right. look at the underperformance you see out of this name right now comparatively to the rest of t

the rba is interesting. previewing what central banks will do next week -- year. great to see you.'s kick it off with this outlet -- outlook that bloomberg has for 2020. in terms of monetary stimulus from the major banks, it will be more than 2019. the central banks were dealing with the effects of the trade war between the u.s. and china. we will probably have a bit more debate going on. particularly in europe. what about elsewhere if we broaden it out to central banks? what are the points you are focusing on? some of these other central banks, think of emerging , they will probably be pursuing additional monetary stimulus. nejra: do you concur with their also being that tilt? david: i would. but does it tell us anything? australia and new zealand have been the leading indicators of what is happening in the rest of the world. does the swedish experiment about negative interest rates tell us anything about the euro zone? that is a part of the world where we have monetary policy rates pretty much on the floor. inflation picking up. a country liket hungary, core inflation has had 4%.

s&p is off by just about four points energy, materials in the green 'rba redng else in the r wee ckightfter this. >> here we are in the cnbc control room this is where it all comes in, including and especially your questions. go to cnbc.com/halftime, ask us a question and we'll answer it on the air >> announcer: go to cnbc.com/halftime or get us on twitter with the hashtag ask halftime. >> general mills is having a big year shares are up about 36%. that puts it on pace for its best year since 1991 pete najarian is tracking unusual options activity in this name, not only because it's based in minneapolis where he joins us from right now. pete >> good to see you yeah, general mills, this hit a couple of weeks ago as well, and when it hit the previous time i decided to buy the stock itself because i was waiting for an excuse to buy it it made a lot of the move that you're talking about, the 36%. a lot of that was in the first half of the year it's been flat lining ever since. but great performance this year. what they're doing today is pretty interesting we have two different ways that the

'rba i30ecds >>> all right. as promised we're back on the "halftime report." industrial names are taking a hit today on the back of what was a worse than expected manufacturing data l3 harris, jacobs engineering, boeing, honeywell are among the biggest losers you don't owe honeywell, do you, joe? >> i do not. >> not anymore consumers continue to spend but some investors are betting against retailers. the short interest in the xrt retail etf is hitting its highest level in nearly eight months according to the financial firm s&p partners. this comes as etf -- that etf is having its best year since 2014. bank of america hitting its highest level is more than a decade today and bullish options traders see more upside ahead. pete najarian joins us from minneapolis with that. >> you talked about that, decade highs for bank of america, nice move to the upside that we're seeing here and disclosure i own the stock, i plan on holding the stock and, by the way, the options we're seeing today got me into the calls as well so i'm double dipping so to speak it's a two-week

has not even rba has not all -- even cut rates at all.nflation above 4%, more than what they are wanting. there's also calls that india has to be more to try and stimulate this economy, which we have seen their economic growth really falter. it is falling below the likes of china and indonesia. there is one fund manager out there saying that they should look at pulling down longer-term yields i selling short-term bonds and reinvesting in longer-term ones as well. manager whond correctly predicted the credit crunch that had been hurting indian banks. a big surprise here. coming after the -- india should maintain its accommodative monetary policy staff. nejra: juliette saly in singapore, thank you. absolutely, big surprise. none of the economists surveyed by bloomberg predicted the r.b.i. would stay on hold. the are seeing the market reaction. surging eight basis points to 6.55%. our guest for the hour. a surprising decision. what do you think might have prompted this? there was a unanimous decision to keep these rates on hold. chris: good

aussie, but hedge funds are boosting their bearish bets on the aussie, whether they are betting on rbarom bloomberg saying it looks likely that the governor might lower rates to 0.25%. keep in mind, that's the level they said he would try to consider qe, which is still up for debate. is in sydneyul with the first word news. paul: thousands rallied in hong kong to seize money raised by a crowd funded for the anti-protest movement. almost $9 million in assets from the group on thursday. spark alliance condemned the action. hasunrest in hong kong surfaced in talks. china has been urged to continue to exercise self-restraint. shinzo abe said the international community is increasingly worried viewed -- worried viewed five people have been sentenced to death in saudi arabia for the murder of journalist jamarcus sergey -- your list jamarcus sergey -- for a journalist last year. they said they did not have enough evidence to incriminate to senior officials. the crown prince has denied ordering thedenied killing viewed -- killing. i am paul allen, this is bloomberg. -- selina:ant some some liv

chairman jay clayton about the high tech tools they are using 'rba a t ces wee ckfterhis. woman: friction points, those obstacles that limit a company's growth. i try to find companies that turn these challenges into opportunities. but by going out in the field, and meeting management, suppliers, competitors. in the end, it's these unique companies with creative business models that will generate value for our investors. that's why i go beyond the numbers. that will generate value for our investors. so servicenow put your workflows imm-hm.cloud, huh? your employees must love you. thank you. ah, you could say that. so how are things with you guys? great. thank you. thank you, sir. lunch next week? terrific. say hi to the team. will do. call my office, i will. -sounds good. alrighty. servicenow. works for you. >>> welcome back to "closing bell." it is time now to get to the word on the street oppenheimer raising its price target on peloton from $38 a share to $29 the firm points to peloton's search trends, website traffic, and improving customer satisfaction metrics meanwhil

in the last couple of months in the rba in australia, their at .25 onprobably rates. higher?orry, why is the fed lower? jane: it comes to banking models and different factors. but certainly in the australian and the u.k. business models, probably just above zero. but that is still -- theset will be tough for banks. jane: it could be a tough year. the upside would be if relations between the u.s. and china improved. that is something that we just do not see at this point in time. of where this leaves us, i'm just kind of curious as to how you see this unfolding. is the weapon of choice still tariffs on the trade war? or could it be more currency orientated? often reference to currency. economy were to suffer another significant blow, it is likely that the renminbi would depreciate. that sentence shockwaves throughout -- that sends out shockwaves. that is certainly a potential threat out there as well. trump would like a weaker dollar. the dollar may weaken. but i don't think the dollar will be a weak currency, not when it is the only dominant currency in the payroll system. co