now, let's get a check on -- ahead of the rba decision.ee-year futures consolidating not too far off the may high. while benchmark rates are slipping attached. during an important week for rates. haidi: it is aussie decision day. approaching a decision on wednesday. will it be strong enough -- to signal a move away from emergency mode? no change today. let's get some analysis and impact on the markets from kelli e wood. i want to bring up this charge which takes a look at the shift away from the focus on bank purchases. as we see yields become unhinged from that 0.1% target. could there be aiming for november, 2024? the meeting where we hear them talking about normalization, given there is a lot of uncertainty in melbourne. >> today for the rba we are going to be marking time. we're not expecting a move from the rba but the strength of the australian economy has been really high. high commodity prices we have seen. and massive fiscal stimulus. i think we are starting to see a point at which monetary policy has to be recalibrated. we have s

along with inflation, it will be washed when it comes to the rba update. we will also be watching for korean inflation data, likely to see a pickup in consumer prices. keeping and i on korean stocks, led lower by health care names on monday. overall, we are seeing futures looking next as asian stocks have been lagging global peers for six straight weeks. on monday, we saw the regional index fall to a one-month low as we see varying virus surges across the region. pulling up the chart on the terminal, we see manufacturing activity hold up through april across the region. we are seeing some signs of a slowdown in those figures as we are facing a lockdown in places like india. even in the face of the virus situation there, we have a manufacturing activity holding up fairly well in april, although we are seeing orders slow down in india and manufacturing also take a hit. haidi: it is rba day, the central deck potential he eying a change to its bond target. -- the central bank potentially eying a change to its bond target. also, scott collier tells us what he i

australia, we are looking into the rba decision. sidney stocks closing at record highs into the close, but still trading a little higher than expectations of a little bit of gains going -- going into the start of trading today. the rba expected to make some remarks about where normality might fall with the possibility of future qe as well. nikkei futures, a downside of about .2% in trading. dollar china is one to watch as well given that we've seen some pretty strong jawboning and visible measures from chinese authorities forcing banks to hold more foreign currency to try to dampen a substantial move we've seen in the surging yuan. u.s. stocks are closed for the long weekend and futures in the u.s. as well. let's get back to the top story on the renminbi, forcing lenders to hold more, the first time they've done this in more than a daca -- a decade. tom, what are the details of this? tom: the first time they've done this since 2007, like you said, more than a decade. it's a big step for the pboc. it's to reserve reserve ratios for f

haidi: the deadline the rba set for itself for the bond yield and the future qe, what does that do if we hear guidance for the levels we are seeing on australian stocks? shane: a new record high on friday and that has been underpinned by a whole bunch of things like low interest rates and, to the extent the central bank starts to edge toward less monetary stimulus, it's a bit of a negative. it's all been about tapering with the reserve bank announcement probably coming in july. investors will look very closely at the meeting tomorrow but it's hard to see them providing anything different than they have the last two months, which is basically they are intent on not raising interest rates for some years to come. i think the basic problem is the rba is, yes, there's been a stronger-than-expected recovery, but you do need more wage growth to get the same inflation. i think it will be the way for some things but we are looking for tapering starting in september. i don't inc. they are going to say anything more than they will consider it in july. haidi: is an overshooting better risk, given

supply versus how rba and qe interacts with it. rba had control of it. there is the supply angle.at in isolation would have meant higher rates. we don't think they will be that quick to exit. we were actually thinking that it might include some further out bond. i think the next supply question , it is number one or number two to global fixed income. i think you should correlate or make sure your taking rba buying into account. we think the rba will be very slow given that australia depends a lot on tourism. sheri: always great to have you with us. coming up, we have more analysis on the big spending plans. this is bloomberg. ♪ sheri: prime minister scott morrison put a tarp opening to a year behind him and put attention on the strength of the economic recovery. we are standing by with a guest that says if the pm and edges to achieve that goal. >> thank you very much. a political scientist at the us trillion national university, we have been discussing if this budget is huge on spending. very conservative when it comes to some estimates about things like the price of iron ore unem

you buy the aussie dollar on a repricing of the rba. expectations are for a 2024 hike. they are likely to come in sooner than that. so if the bank of canada has already priced in for a 2022 hike, i think that divergence is quite interesting. it is all kind of miss priced at this point. i think the rba is the next one to sound more hawkish relative to market expectations, which probably sets precedent for the fed to at least start moving in that direction. annmarie: we will see what they have to say tomorrow. thank you so much for joining us this morning, mark mccormick, td securities head of global fx strategy. just ahead, we will discuss with steve soft neck -- with steve soft neck -- with steve sophnik. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: i'm laura wright in london. president biden honored america's dead today in a memorial day event at arlington national cemetery. a wreath-laying ceremony was held at the tomb of the unknown soldier, which is dedicated to u.s. servicemembers whose remains have not been recovered. china will now allow couples to have a third child, an attempt

chairman, thank you for the work of the rba in putting this together once again for all of us. most of all, we are honored and proud to have you here, mr. president. there are few people who attended this event more reliably than you have. many of those people are here and i can see that you are in your assigned seats right here in the front row. resilience, strength, sacrifice. the kind of values that we spoke to. we used to have a saying in the congress, i would like to associate with the comments of the gentleman from north wilmington, because that was extraordinary, it talked about our obligation and those values. those are the values we honor every memorial day. we remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. we say their names and pray for their eternal rest and comfort our goldstar families who live with that loss every day. this past year the rest of the country got a glimpse of what it means to live out those values. the values our men and uniform live by every day. we could not have made it through the pandemic if it weren't for the sacrifices, large and small, of

rba, the risk from the rba tomorrow, that it could turn hawkish?: i wouldn't go down that way either. the message is that they are not trying to second-guess the economy. they want to see hard evidence that stuff has changed before they start to change their policy. it is a very different approach from central banks, the ones we are used to. i think they are quite reasonably taking the view that none of the models probably work right now, because you are living through such crazy times. evidence that things are going in a way that will require some action and that inflation has been low everywhere for so long. it does overshoot in little bit. i suspect there will be a slight deviation, a continuation between the rba and a very dovish bias. manus: thank you for joining us today, rob carnell, ing head of research and chief economist on a pack -- on aipac. -- angel: i think the discussion regarding inflation is particular to the united states. it could maintain accommodative policy, so that inflation -- over time and long-term inflation expectations a

bonds edging higher after the rba decision.rella's low inflation -- australia's low-inflation suggesting that the rba will refrain from any hawkish tilt. i want to show you this chart this morning. korea, the cost b which is the best march 2020. korean stocks have benefited as korean exports have exported to the u.s. market recovering well from the pandemic. the question whether those gains are a sample are not pure we had korea lifting that shop ban in place for more than a year. yvonne: what has been fueling this rally has been the retail traders. mom-and-pop investors to buy up stocks that -- amidst this pandemic. a lot of these institutional investors got out when the band was put in place. still a question about whether the band has been lifted. are there fundamentals behind this market, given the fact they do have these very, very strong names like tech cyclical sectors benefiting from reflation trade? a lot of questions to ask. some people have been talking about cashing out. some are talking about going through these 1.

we also have the rba meeting minutes. on watch from india. flipping the board, it has been a rough may for asian tech stocks. highest extending declines, even as foreign buying hit a six-year high on monday. there is more volatility ahead for taiwanese equities. japan's start up index has fallen into bear market territory, as inflation chatter has appetite for tech names in the region. sabre cyclicals and singapore is heavily exposed to the cyclical theme, reflecting the global rotation. we have seen the sei head speed bumps amid virus was. it managed to close higher on monday with singapore airlines among the gainers for the session. pulling up the chart on the terminal, inflation, indexes, they continue to take higher. a global gauge of inflation surprises nearing a 13 year high. with that, several strategists are saying that markets are underpricing the risk for inflation. city saying the fed is pricing too definite -- dovish. shery: president joe biden planning to send millions of fda authorized doses of vaccines abroad for the first time

in rba rates decision coming out tuesday, the fed beige book, and ppi rates on wednesday.y, another round jobless claims out on friday, closing out the week with chair powell and the u.s. payroll report. still with us our our guests. i want to dig more into where there could still be value. we have been talking about the doom and gloom and i wondering from you, matt, where do we have the greatest potential opportunity? matt: it's difficult. to elaborate on krishna's point, i would not use the word frothy, but it is high-yield and fully valued. looking at the market, it is business cycle based, so as we come into the upswing of the economic cycle, we are moving their very fast. triple see that right now is trading at approximately 6.5%, 6.25% yield. that is excessively missed out in our opinion. we think the right way for investors to think about it, if you want to be tilting to being slightly short duration and the guilds aren't fantastic to overweight spread products, high-quality spread products, if the 10 year treasuries are 1.621 prince own percent, it doesn't seem fan

oil trade that a oil pipeline would get hacked there is a lesson to be learned from that experience 'rba have an idea for a trade. oh yeah, you going to place it? not until i'm sure. why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no dow

we heard from the rba yesterday, the optimism continues as well. where do you see this going forward particularly when it comes to your loans business? do you see demand continue to rise? >> good morning. we are optimistic about the future. i think it is a credit to the strength in the banking system in australia and the hard work we have done to strengthen the bank and be ready for whatever comes our way. the great response our governments have made in terms of the health response. things look much more optimistic than they have been in a long time. i don't think any of us would have imagined we would be sitting here in early may 2021 with this optimism. however, the pandemic is not over. there is still a long way to go. haidi: that leads me into my next. continue. >> we are going to see an increase i think in strength in the economy in australia and new zealand. housing is starting to flatten out a little bit. it has had a very strong run. it has a lot of liquidity in the market. people have been saving heavily. we have seen record levels of depo

ahead of the rba decision, the aussie dollar holding steady this morning. are nudging higher. switching on the board for the focus on south korea. we are waiting on the april meeting minutes. we have inflation data that the fastest pickup in consumer prices since 2017. the korean yuan trading at about 11.20. the tech heavy is under pressure this morning. the kospi bouncing back a little bit after being led lower by health care stocks on monday as the shortselling ban was lifted. biopharma and battery makers are vulnerable to downside pressure. switching the board for what's happening across assets early tuesday this asia session. the u.s. s&p lower after we saw stocks higher on wall street. commodities very much in focus. we are seeing some renewed energy demand optimism after the eu proposed easing some travel curbs for people who are vaccinated. that will help lift oil prices. crude above $64. we have precious metals on the radar. silver futures continuing to gain ground. we have dollar weakness in the wake of the u.s. pmi numbers, showing it could be slo

we also want to mark that the rba governor will be making an unscheduled speech at 10:00 a.m., locale. we're looking at these chipmakers after we heard some comments in the u.s., aiming for major production at home. who this is bloomberg -- at home, this is bloomberg. yvonne:t now, a mixed picture. seems like we have moved past the janet yellen gaffe, tech selloff stabilizing a little bit. what else should we be watching out for? haslinda: i guess virus resurgence. even singapore implementing more aggressive restrictions as we see the new process. one of the things investors are also take into account, mulling over all of the challenges. for now, let's get over to vonnie quinn. vonnie: [indiscernible] janet yellen clarifying she was neither predicting nor recommending interest rate increases. she also said she does not anticipate higher inflation. earlier, she set off pickups and financial markets after saying in an interview that the biden administration's spending may trigger a rise in interest rates. >> it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our

job numbers are key from the rba. that was sparked wages growth and inflation., we have a pivotal meeting when there is expected to be a conversation about whether or not to move the three year yield target to november 2024 bond instead of april. shery: the government unveiling its budget later today. what do we expect? >> the deficit is not expected to be as bad as expected. the treasury in new zealand updated its forecast a couple of weeks ago. it's less than half of the $6.7 billion that was previously projected. net debt, dobbs recovery, all of that is expected to be better than originally forecast in new zealand. the finance minister is remaining cautious on these numbers. he says we have to be careful about what the treasury accounts say. he is expected to remain cautious in the budget. the government has already had criticism this month for freezing public sector wages. in terms of some announcements that we already know, traditionally things eke out. there will be money for vaccines in the rollout. $2.7 billion to address supply in the housing market whi

shery: we know inflation has been well below the rba's target. >> the evidence here also suggests anecdotallyt it could be changing if the jobs numbers are any guide. we did have the last unemployment read of 5.6% in march. that came off the back of the end of the government's job keeper program, the wage subsidy scheme. there is a lot of evidence of labor market shortages. the queensland government has been offering up to $1500 in travel bonuses for people to come out and work in what it calls paradise. a gold mine struggling to get truck drivers and other workers. even around the corner from my place, a restaurant is still just doing take away, even though dining in has been allowed for months. they told me they can't find any wait staff. so much for the phillips curve, strong employment equals wages growing, and therefore, inflation. there could be a lag between the anecdotal evidence and it showing up in the data. so we will just wait and see. haidi: looking to the rate decision. in melbourne, new restrictions on gatherings as authorities race to clamp down on a cluster of covid cases. au

the rba does what central banks do best, they jawbone the currency and we will delve into that more throughhe morning. bitcoin is lower as ethereum rises to a more dominant position. bitcoin down 1.6% this morning. what is a portfolio without a little bit of bitcoin? yogi dewan is the ceo and founding partner at hassium asset management. great to have you with me this morning. when we look at these markets, equities are a little bit lighter. the seven considerations by this federal reserve are structurally and fundamentally different to that which we saw when we exited the great financial crisis. this comes down to the recovery, which is many are being left behind. yogi: you make a good point, manus. global equity markets are up 10% year to date and the u.s. even stronger at almost 12% year to date. it's time for a pause. everybody knows the narratives, valuations are stretched, the technology sector is a crowded trade, and everybody is focused on the reflation trade. there is lots of positive macroeconomic data. we've had something like circa 80% beats. may is traditionally a week a month

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aussie tenure fairly stable ahead of tomorrow's rba decision. korean futures looking a little weaker. today is the day the ban on short selling in korea is partially lifted. going to be an interesting day of trade there. shery: india's elections underway right now despite the ongoing covid crisis in the country. prime minister modi's party currently trailing a key state election which is seen as a test of his popularity and an indication of whether the backlash over his government's handling of the covid-19 emergency will hurt him at the about box. joining us now is ros krasny. give us the latest not only about the virus situation, but also about the election. ros: yes. it is so interesting. we have seen elections in the u.s. last fall where the perception was the incumbent, the coronavirus had a huge impact. i think that is what we are seeing in india. modi's party, the right wing, looks like it has lost this election as criticism mounts over his response to the virus. as you recall just in the past few weeks, shortly before the virus cases rea

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in australia, the rba releasing its quarterly statement on monetary policy.july timeline for changes doing bond buying program. looking at more details on that. on the corporate front, 60% of shareholders going against the report in protest of the incentive payments to the former ceo. this marks the first strike against the board and if the pay report again goes over 25% opposition at next year's adm, the impact -- the entire board will be required to put itself up for reelection. apollo global management has offered $3.1 billion to the gaming services unit. less -- thus intensifying a bidding war. lots more to come on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: a check of the latest business flash headlines. nintendo delivered a big earnings bid on the switch sales, but warned consol production could be disrupted by the global chip shortage. its income of $1.1 billion double the average estimate for the quarter and came amid a court -- a covid era boom in gaming. it was not able to produce as many devices as hoped and gave a conservative sale after when he .5 mill

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switching it out to check in on australia, we are waiting on the rba quarterly monetary policy statementlude upgrades for passport 2023. international borders might not be reopen until the summer of next year. we are keeping an ion miners. it has kept the aussie dollar on the upside. we are seeing a trade near a one-week high. copper zero record high -- is near a record high. you need a 50% rise in copper supplies to purge -- to encourage new supply. with that, pulling up a chart on the terminal. as we wait on china's april trade figures, we are looking for clues as to whether or not inflationary pressures are building, which we are seeing and it comes to input costs and import pni's -- pmi's. shery: let's get some more market analysis. great to have you back with us. sophie was mentioning these crazy prices when it comes to commodities. our indexes at a nine-year high. question of the day, how far can this rally go? i want to turn this also in relation to inflation. what should markets watch out for, given that the prices are higher? >> indeed, commodities are a good space at this point

by next year, perhaps in australia if the rba does decide to move onto yields controlling in july.is very much what we are seeing. the pboc is being tricky. i think the second thing is really the reaction to the virus. the reaction to the virus across asia has been anything from incompetent to sluggish to autocratic to complacent. you can take your favorite country and put them into one of those categories. so we get a better hold on vaccinations and are scheduled to reopen economies, i thing i read they will take a test it will take 1.7 years to reopen. kathleen: i would like to jump in. it is ironic to me -- the u.s. was criticized for its response to the virus and yet it is leading the world with vaccines, producing them, vaccines are rolling out like crazy. and another irony is although stimulus checks have helped fuel china's recovery, ages recovery. if you look at the latest trade deficit, half of that big deficit is with china now. that is what those $1400 checks have done. buy a lot of stuff from overseas. when you look at asia, how important is it that more u.s. fiscal sti

in terms of the commodity cycle and growth expectations, if the rba really go to give much guidance onotentially joining the likes of canada and new zealand and talking about tightening? reporter: i think it is a little bit too soon to be explicitly talking about tightening. certainly talking about raising the cash rate. the run of data in australia [inaudible] we do think and we get around to the first cash rate, it will be sooner than early 2024. before we get to that, we will get specific guidance around which government bond they are targeting for that three year yields target. what they are going to do around easing as well, that will be announced. [inaudible] there is gradual movement in that direction. shery: let me turn to india. we are getting the gdp numbers this week,. to mention the rbis rate decision. the indian economic growth against china's economic growth, and we are projecting now perhaps india's growth will peak in about 15 years or so. what are you expecting in this week's numbers? guest: year on year, right about 1%. extremely weak performance, but in the context o

limiting undue tightening and financial conditions from rising market bond yields, the likes of the rbarea, they have pushed back in terms of the rhetoric to try and really contain overtly sharp rises in yields. the question is, the likes of indonesia, the philippines, they tend to dip monetization. whether that is a sustainable strategy is questionable in the face of what we are seeing in terms of margins and reflation concerns. >> thank you for your insight. next, colonial is getting a lesson in the efficiency of ransomware. if such attacks are here to stay -- we will discuss if such attacks are here to stay. ♪ >> the industry understands we are a target. >> criminal networks around the world have incredibly sophisticated cyber capacities to destroy things. >> it tells you how utterly vulnerable we are. we have seen all these examples of ransomware attacks. >> we are preparing for multiple possible contingencies because that is our job. >> the ongoing investments are going to be substantial. >> it will mitigate the impact on and consumers -- end consumers on the east coast. >> if it i

and bonds under pressure, both number and commonwealth bank expected the rba will turn less dove edgez tightening operations and ahead of the long weekend in the u.s., were seeing 10-year treasury yield extending up this morning. pulling up the chart on the terminal, as were seeing the pickup and u.s. yields, that's push the you gap with china to a 15 month stretch. bloomberg intelligence says [indiscernible] shery: let's turn to the yuan's relentless rally this week. against a basket of trading partners. let's crossover to sephia, or authorities getting more comfortable with the yuan? >> that's a very good question. everyone was kind of on the alert for any signal from the pboc. we got that late-night statement from the central bank saying the currency wouldn't be used to reduce inflationary pressure. while analyst have been calling the ecb of weapon or a tool for that. saying the only way it is going right now is up. shery: the flexibility has long market-driven fundamentals. >> exactly. there are signs that beijing is relaxing its grips -- grip on the nation's currency. xi jinping'

wee ckgierow 'rba in two. i have an idea for a trade. oh yeah, you going to place it?itrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪♪ over to the cme again and rick santelli for the santelli ex-changes rick >> reporter: good morning. thank you, morgan. i'd like to welcome my guest jerome snyder of pimco, managing director and head of short-term portfolio. welcome. had a short-term portfolio wow. a real undertaking these days. remember, the central banks, our fed, making stocks to go, too, but making the fixed income the run from all this cash out there means risk are money markets good where's all the cash going >> a great question and great point to ask spend a moment on cash balances increased significantly. savings rates up to 20% even this month, and we're finding that this incredible amount of cash is effectively create add black hole gr

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