two 25 basis points hikes is seen as the maximum the rba does.acknowledgment of the risks of recession and in particular a lot of people have been pointing to that so-called mortgage cliff. with people who took out fixed rates when the rba rate was at 0.1%. now they are facing those rates coming off and being based on an rba variable-rate. 3.35 probably or even 3.6, if they go again. that's going to be a big shock and the housing sector has already seen some pretty steep declines. that's having an effect on consumers and starting to have an effect on businesses. the other thing going on is the fed is getting close to the end of its moves. if it goes 25 basis points, as expected, in february, that's really going to give the rba a lot of capacity to sing, ok, if even the fed is slowing down, we can slow down and maybe stop. >> it seems to be more and more of the same story. if the fed slows down, what does that mean for me? we look at the inflation number, unchanged, 7.2% on the latest rate. -- the latest read. it is not as much as the rba thought

plus, a 32 year high, the rba will hike next month. in europe, wage pressure means the pace of increases should not slow. good morning, tom. it's all about tech, from hardware and software to chips. tom: good morning, it is a beat when it comes to net sales for asml and the guidance is looking a little bit more positive. fourth quarter net sales coming in at 4.60 3 billion euros, central to the production of semiconductors. when it comes to first quarter net sales, they are looking at estimates of 6.1 billion euros. the estimates have been a little under that rate. they are seeing stronger sales than expected in the first quarter and fourth-quarter net sales just beating estimates as well. so it looks like a decent set of results for asml. we will be listening for any comments from these executives on the earnings call about the decision-making and aligning with the u.s. on further restrictions of sales of equipment to china. gross margins coming in at 50%, the estimate had been for 50.6%. that is the lookahead for the first quarter fr

the rba has raised interest. six months lows -- six-month lows. it's the treasury yields that matter more to australia. they tend to drive everything in the g10 spaces. our old bloomberg economics people are suggesting that when the rba meets next week they will hike interest rates again. that will likely be the last one in the series. they have been hinting for a while that they think on top of the situation, when they look back at it, the inflation number could be an outlier, there are some special factors that say it will be reversed. they're only seeing weakness and aussie bonds it will probably not last too long. the currencies very strong as well. you've got the china reopening story which has gained support. in a way that will push sort term -- short-term yields. the more downward pressure you get in short-term yields. all in all. whatever happens today may be forgotten, especially if the treasury markets stay strong in the u.s. rishaad: mark. hong kong reopens has been great stuff. it has been a great sta

haidi: the rba will be one of the central banks answering those questions.ge when it comes to our inflation numbers, the melbourne institute inflation reading month on month and year on year on your for the month of december. this is relevant given that we had a harder than expected reading when it comes to month for november. all of this potentially giving more reason for the rba to think about when they pause. we spoke to sarah hunter earlier and she said perhaps they will go one more time, and there is good enough reason to pause. let's get you to annabelle. annabelle: positive momentum coming into the session, you had to close the wall street session friday. on top of that u.s. dollar easing, gold, oil also hi, all positive factors coming into the session today. the big focus for us as we have the opening of japan is what happens with the boj meeting this week it is a live decision specifically with what they do to their program of yield curve control, whether trading for the 10 year yield is extended higher than the current .5 1%. we had seen it being t

pace in 32 years the last quarter for australia, prompting bets for an interest rate hike from the rba at the next meeting. joining us now is niall o'sullivan, cio for neuberger berman. as well as kristine aquino. kristine, let's start with the tech story. microsoft, this had been the concern. we have been weighing up the cost cutting which some investors saw is a positive versus the risks around they fall off in demand. that seems to be what is transpiring for microsoft. the broader implications for the tech sector, then. kristine: the big read across is microsoft's warning that the sales are bound to slow, and that moves with what we are seeing in this tech sector, the cost cutting drive we are seeing in mass layoffs and now feeding into them and for services in the sector. that makes a lot of sense when you are thinking about companies that are gearing up for a challenging, potentially recessionary environment. they are trying to get their ducks in a row and trying to cut corners where they can. that is the strongest and most important read across we can get from these microsoft res

food for thought when it comes to the rba and certainly for us trillion bonds as well.t you to vonnie quinn for a quick look at our first word headlines. bonnie: the world bank has cut its growth forecast for most economies this year, warning that any new shocks could lead to a global recession. the lender says global gdp will likely grow 1.7% in 2023 or half of the banks protection in june. it also downgraded its outlook for next year citing russia's invasion of ukraine and tight financial conditions. hedge fund billionaire has likened the fed's war against inflation to an attempt at a perfect moon landing. he said that fed chair jay powell is vote -- facing the most challenging economic environment in 40 years and that if powell succeeds without breaking things, stocks could climb up to 8% this year. hong kong has condemned the decision by the uk's foreign office minister to meet with lawyers of the imprisoned media mogul. it's accusing london of interfering in its investigative affairs. he was found guilty of fraud in october at a china's sweeping security legislatio

in australia, economists split on the rba governor's prospects for an extension of his role.se surveyed by bloomberg says the governor deserves four more years at the helm, and others say his errors mean he should be replaced, preferably by someone outside the central bank. his seven-year term expires in september. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. paul: the kansas city fed president is still seeing the possibility of a soft landing for the u.s. economy. bloomberg spoke exclusively with her as she winds down her term. >> this is a very tight labor market and i think unusually so in this sense. we've seen 3.5% unemployment before but when we look at the people engaging in that workforce, we are still down in terms of participation compared to 2019. we see a number of job openings for every available worker, and in that sense, all of the indicators show how tight the labor market is. again, when i talk to people, it is their number one co

the rba, reserve bank of australia, in 2021.1951, the fed did something similar after world war ii. in both of those exits, there emerged a financial tightness in the private credit markets. we are already seeing this in japan. corporate bond sales have plunged 75% versus this month last year. you can see, if the outlook for the economy is extremely high, they don't want to add any more uncertainty coming from what a ycc exit could be. we have a lot of analysis based on what happened in australia where we saw the three year yield surge 100 basis points before they finally threw in the towel. after that, there was quite a sizable credit crunch that happen industrial you before the rba was able to stabilize markets. if they delay any why cc exit, this gives them breathing room. the fed might be cutting by then, the global 10 year yields may have just retraced. that gives a letter usher off the boj and perhaps they could have a smoother exit if you could say the 10 year equilibrium yield is not too far away from the current target.

but some interesting numbers for the rba to consider its meeting which happens in three weeks.ers for australia next week as well. shery: staying with the jobs theme, amazon and microsoft laying off tens of thousands of workers. massive staff reductions that are now officially underway, as part of a wider wave of job cuts hitting the tech industry, as it slashes costs amid an economic slowdown. su keenan joins us with the latest. microsoft already notifying some of these workers. su: it is already underway. both microsoft and amazon sharing the view that the cuts are painful, but necessary in this economic environment. we understand that notifications are going out immediately to many microsoft workers. others will be notified in the coming months. again, about 10,000 workers are going to lose their jobs. it will take a 1.2 billion charge in the second fiscal quarter, related to this move which will fax -- affect less than 5% of the workforce and cuts 12% -- $.12 off the cost per share. the ceo talked about the changing demand picture from davos. >> during the pandemic, there w

why she expects a volatile time for marcus before the fed and rba start cutting rates later this year. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there is still a lot of uncertainty. i think we are in the same spot where we see equities down in the near term. possibly recovering toward the end of the year. i think the key challenge is risk premium. markets always fall faster and recover faster. so much is down to timing. how do you see the trajectory when it comes to market recovery this year? it is probably become -- probably because it is forward-looking. it is forward-looking between 12 and 18 months. we are now -- the equity market is think what a lot of recessionary probability. we are going to have quit a lot of corporate downgrade in terms of earnings. then we will have -- from here on, we do think expectations will get more realistic simply because consumers are going to tighten their belts and corporate is going to tighten the spending and analysts will be much more realistic. we do see a stronger start into the year and with the earnings really taken place earlier this year. >> how do you gaug

there's a lot for the rba to consider as the mortgage cliff rolls over. the aussie dollar is hovering around $.70. in new zealand, we see reasonable gains. nikkei futures pointing to a slightly softer open. vonnie: the federal reserve may be ready to downshift the size of its rate increases but that doesn't mean it's ready to take its foot off the gas pedal. kathleen hays is here. officials have been signaling a 25 basis point hike but we need to know what's going to happen in march and beyond. >> they signaled many of them like chris waller in washington, the vice chair and others have said we are making progress on inflation it's ok to slow down and may be look ahead to a pause. it will be jay powell's job at the press conference to fine-tune that however he asked to do it. yes we are getting closer to the point or no we have further to go. we know that consumer prices are coming down. what feeds into the major measures? wages are a big one. the cost indicator benefits came in at 1% in the latest quarter had been as high as 1.4%. on the other hand, you

, in q3, which was this quarter, we are talking 6.1% of inflation, so we are already undershooting rba'son and given the global growth item there is a slowdown that we are seeing and it's time for the rba to move and it would come in as early as it said. rishaad: what about fiscal consolidation? what think about the federal budget early next month, it's going to be rather important, given that it is the year before the 2024 elections. quick sure, you have the long, there'll always be this being a populist budget because it would enter first. but i would log -- i would want to deviate a little bit. india last year spent about 14 trillion on the budget signs. this year, because were on the path of consolidation, we will probably grow the full budget by about 5%. but within the spending of subsidies, government would like to spend more on capital expenditure. we are on growth rating capital expenditure on india and it would be smaller on expenditure. the overall budget would grow back by 6%. so i think i would keep the populism inside ahead of the elections, and they would be watching out f

we saw how the rba did it in the market really did not melt down. think we have to look at things a little more objectively here because we have a pretty big clear out in u.s. treasuries that have already happened. there's a lot of u.s. dollars sitting on the sidelines right now. i am worried about what happens over in europe because there has not been a lot of gb bonds by japan. this is where disruption could happen. we had to keep our eye not just on japan's markets but also on the functioning of the european markets also if that does become individuality. dani: and you'd top me through that? what using the reaction would be for european sovereigns, treasuries? what with the spillover effect look like? stephen: as i said, the u.s. will be rather moot because i believe looking at the data here japan institutional investors are divest of u.s. treasuries. i think the risk here is definitely on edb's and we could see a fairly decent selloff there. i think this is what is in my view holding markets hostage a little bit in the global sense right now, es

follow today on your favorite podcasting app 'rba rhtft ts.wee ckig aerhi >>> welcome back to "fast moneyr check on the markets today. nasdaq and s&p and dow all falling more than 1% walgreens among the biggest losers today falling 6% on disappointing earnings reporting shrinking demand for covid tests and vaccines and that contributed to falling sa sales. and merck climbing more than a percent after news of a trial collaboration on tumor treatments up 1.4%. and we're counting down to the december employment report expectations, the economy added 200,000 jobs last month. and that will be a slowdown for november but still healthy and things could slow further as layoffs grip the tech sector, amazon is cutting more than 18,000 workers, biggest cut ever so what will it mean for the fed? let's bring in joe levonne he's on the "fast" line. what do you expect tomorrow? >> a number around 200,000, probably something less than that the job market is certainly flowing. one of these months, i don't know if it is tomorrow, we'll get a week number because the housing markets is already in recession.

you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite 'rba rhtft tare.s? the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. lately everybody has opinions about the economy, but i count on personal financial advice. my ameriprise advisor understands the markets and me. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. >>> welcome back to "fast money. meme stocks seeing massive gains again as wall street brace forz another short squeeze. shares of bed bath & beyond surging 50% today. since the start of the week the stock has quadrupled trading at the just over $5 a share bbby still down 75% over the last two years carvana also with an off the charts move today up more than 45% for the week it's jumped over 80% but last year at this time carvana was trading at 186 bucks a share. like bed bath & beyond carvana's grappling with a lot of debt karen, you actually put a

it reflects all the hurdles acing the local qe economy that has been hit by the rba being a front-runnere tightening cycle. >> let's get some more analysis on the markets. mark joins us now. what are we watching at the moment? we have mixed positive economic data out of the u.s.. we do not know what the path forward will be for the fed on the next meeting. at the same time a lot of? over tech and -- question marks over tech and automakers. >> is tough for the fed. jerome powell is giving a live press conference and people watch what he says closely. they will raise 25 basis points or 50 we will have to wait and see. the most difficult job for jerome powell is to get people to not too excited. now the idea of a soft landing is beginning to take hold after the gdp data yesterday. people to see the best of all worlds where growth is decent by not pushing inflation too hard. the fed will want to keep on message jerome powell want to remind people he intends to keep interest rates high for a long period of time. that is not what the rocket wants to your at the moment -- market wants to hear a

the expectation is as we get higher rates from the rba the drop continue. prices dropping the most since 2008. that being reflected in dire outlook for building approvals. a full of 9% for november. shery: in other alert on the bloomberg. we are hearing reaction from former president bolsonaro as to her supporters storm the congress -- after supporters stormed the congress. he is coming out on twitter saying the peaceful demonstrations are part of democracy but invasions of public buildings likely sell today and he compares it to claimed acts done by the left and a 2013 and 2017. not within the rules. he does not necessarily mentioned the president directly but he does say he rejects the baseless accusations against him by the current chief of brazil's executive power. we are waiting to hear from the former president after his supporters stormed these key government buildings today. 400 people have been arrested so far. continue to follow the developments in brazil as the justice minister is currently speaking. he is saying this is a coup attempt and this w

property markets and all of that in addition to higher than expected inflation, potentially giving the rbafood for thought. let's get you to bill for a look at the markets. -- annabelle for a look at the markets. annabelle: we are snapping a four day advance. it is being driven lower by material stocks today. off by 1.2%. we have u.s. markets shut for a public holiday, futures looking flat although we did see miners underperforming the benchmark in europe and that was down to what happened with iron ore pricing. we saw the big drop in iron ore and you can see still lower at the open of trade in singapore. they will crack down on price distortions in the market. in terms of the companies operating in this space, rio tinto is the biggest. even though we did actually see the company projecting higher-than-expected copper output over the coming 12 months, goldman sachs among those saying commodities will outperform every other asset class over the course of 2023. we are keeping an eye on what is happening for financial stocks. we did have a callout from citibank, saying it is bullish on austra

china's reopening, and you have also got the financials where nims are expanding and it looks like the rbas going to thread the needle on a soft landing. shery: when it comes to financials in japan, anything you like, given that the boj is accredited tighten? brian: japan i'm a little concerned about because of this monetary policy implementation wrinkle with what is going on. so let's get some of their announcement fx out of the way first. shery: brian quartarolo, really good to have you with us. you can get a roundup of all of these stories that you need to know. dayb . this is bloomberg. ♪ >> as we said, our quarter was disappointing and our business proved particularly challenging. these results are not what we aspire to deliver to shareholders. >> we are not of the view that we are heading into a dark period. whatever negativity in the world is out there, that is not our house view. so we want to make sure we are positioned for growth. shery: goldman's stock was punished as its investment banking shrunk, but rivals were boosted after the earnings reports. su keenan joins us with t

rad labs, also ge healthcare up 4.5%, other names include charles river, solar edge and etsy is up 4 'rbaace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." inflation top of mind for investors as the fed continue to raise rates. that said, are there signs things could be slowing down our senior economics reporter steve liesman has more hi, steve. >> good morning, morgan. new data suggests tomorrow's inflation report from the government could be soft with a possible negative headline number, and it would join other private sector data we've been following, suggesting easing in inflation. the state street price steps inflation index falling 0.3% month to month for one of the biggest drops since the pandemic not surprisingly driven by a sharp decline in fuel prices along with apparel as well other sectors like food look like they were bouncing back toward the end of the month from a soft novembe

'rba ithe. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna.lp! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. [music - cover of blondie's “dreaming”] td ameritrade. [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let there be change. >>> coming up this morning on "tech check," nearly 40,000 employees across tech have been layed off this year. we will unpack all of that and a lot more in the coming hour with the dow up about 30 points don't go anywhere. advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $

eastern to hear chairman and ceo larry fink break down the numbers on a first on cnbc 'rba ithrvw. ckn ree. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." we have major averages higher. we'll turn back to the broader markets. this morning cpi coming in at the lowest level since 2021. as the fed continues to try to tackle inflation, how should investors be positioned? our next guest's fund outperforming the s&p by six percentage points, with adobe and oracle, and citigroup and diamondback energy let's bring in oakmark portfolio manager bill great to have you here we're referencing the oakmark fund let's break down how you're thinking about the positioning of that fund in this calendar year and how it speaks to your expectations on the market more broadly. >> i would say the volatile market last year created a lot of position for us to reposition the fund at oakmark, we're generally selling what's performed pretty well and recycling that money into the names that have been lag laggards for example, we sold out our diamondback energy position. still think it's a very good company, but it

he's also being bound by economic access to the mini budget with mark by these markers set out by the rbaspeech that he gave at bloomberg yesterday, it was quite cautious . it didn't set out a tax plan fully meets that tax, but it talked of to it in terms of british genius and the animal spirits , which i think people spirits, which i think people accord with and people like as an issue. but there is a lot of there's a lot of work to be done, a lot to be proved on his part before the next election. yeah.i part before the next election. yeah. i mean, we need meat on the bones in a way, and you can understand why people are demanding mean, do you demanding that. i mean, do you think strictly because think really strictly because of the situation in, the economic situation we're in, we're going to have wait we're just going to have to wait 12 see where we are 12 months to see where we are and then to have a budget which is going to perhaps give people what i think what they want. yeah, i think there's going to be the students expectations having that. expectations having done that. he was be