as we await the rba, this is where we are at.ve reporting this morning at bloomberg news that the rba governor phil lowe will not be receiving the three year extension that he says he would be open to and happy to after his seven year tenure. his tenure has been marred by a lot of criticism, the difficulties of predicting forward guidance of ray inflation -- rates and inflation through the pandemic. the government has been trying to seek a circuit breaker, and this is a circuit breaker we are getting. they are naming michelle bullock as the next central bank governor. this will be the first female governor we have had at the rba. she was one of the top commanders. muscles and into the prime minister. -- let's listen in to the prime minister. >> thanks for joining us this morning. this morning, the cabinet has met and agreed with the recommendation from the treasurer, supported by myself, that michele bullock be appointed as the ninth reserve bank governor. michele will be the first female governor since the independent rbis was f

that is still more than double the top of the rba's target. it is still too high, one of the main reasons why a majority of economists say no, they will have to move today. last week, the federal reserve came back on the rate hiking path with it what he five basis point hike. . the ecb did its rate hike for july. why wouldn't the rba look at the same situation? yes, inflation is starting to come down. but it has a long way to go. particularly on core inflation. another reason for them to go ahead and hike their key rate again. it is a bit of the market volatility, up a little bit overnight. markets are watching this. not just in australia and asia, this is an important g10 central bank, an important g10 currency. there are a lot of investors waiting to see what happens. shery: it is interesting how we saw the aussie dollar being boosted by the fact that the japanese yen fell to that seven-month low. a lot of it because of these unexpected bond purchases that had people speculating, wait, is the -- are they not letting it sort? economists think

we do think that there _ expected the rba to move.nk that there is _ expected the rba to move. we do think that there is a _ expected the rba to move. we do think that there is a rather - think that there is a rather high chance that they may hike once again as it has a recent history of surprising. some of the less enthusiastic members of the investor community who think the rba is going to stay on hold cited the very weak cpi number we saw last week but the underlying inflation, the core inflation, the inflation indicators the rba look at closely, they still remain significantly above target and given very strong areas of the australian economy, the labour market —— the labour market for example, we think it is prudent for the rba to hike once more. partly to catch up to other global central banks as well. i want to ask you about the inflation rate. many governors talk about that lad after rate hikes and the impact on inflation. why is that impact been slow?— been slow? monetary policy im act been slow? monetary policy impact takes

the rba decision coming up later this morning. looking like a muted trading over the course of the session. >> perhaps we could get a little bit of information coming from the rba meeting later, one of the highlights of the day. let's take a look at headlines from around the world we are monitoring. france has seen relative calm on the sixth night of protests over the fatal police shooting of a teenage boy. arrests are down sharply from the day before beer would authorities have kept 45,000 police and special forces deployed to quell the riots. president macron will meet mayors on tuesday of about 220 towns affected by the unrest. china has issued emergency flood alerts in at least seven provinces that have been hit by heavy rain. severe downpours have been reported in southern areas and areas in the east. floods in 2021 killed more than 200 people. israel has launched its most intense military operation in the occupied west bank in nearly two decades. it's carried out a series of drone strikes and sent hundreds of troops on an op

haidi: haidi: it is decision day for the rba.loomberg intelligence says array tom price crowd crush on demand -- a rate right could crashed home demand in the second half. ocbc targets a revenue boost. we will hear from the ceo at this hour. take a shery: look at how u.s. futures are coming online. a mildly positive session in new york. we had the s&p 500 edging slightly higher. but it was a holiday shortened week and a holiday shortened trading session as well, ahead of the fourth of july celebrations. tesla led to a car stocks gaining ground and battery suppliers gaining ground. also watching treasury yields push higher. the 10-year yield around 3.85. when it came to treasuries, it was a yield curve inversion in the 2's and 10's reaching multiyear extremes. that is what we are watching in the treasury space. also watching oil prices. the asian session slightly pushing higher. that did not happen in the new york session. we had a lot of pressure. saudi arabia pledging to extend voluntary output cuts, and at the same time, the vo

yes, definitely, the rba is on a road to path.ne big difference is the fact that governor philip lowe has repeatedly say he wants to engineer a soft landing. he wants to make sure that in this battle against inflation, he's able to preserve the employment gains. also over the past month, the recession rhetoric gained momentum in australia. we also saw in our bloomberg survey, the recession -- the probability of recession rising to 50%. that has been the highest since the pandemic. australia has not had -- if you remove the pandemic years, has not had a recession in 40 years. it is a sensitive topic, i guess. the reserve bank is cognizant of the fact that they don't want to be seen as being responsible for driving a recession. this is something that philip lowe has repeatedly said as well. i think that is what really sets them apart compared to other central banks, including new zealand where the governors and other policymakers have said they will go to any length to make sure that inflation is brought under control. rishaad: than

the rba will hike are not.y have raised raise 400 basis points in 14 months with a surprise hike of 25 basis points back in may. asx under pressure down a 10th of 1%. the aussie at 6676. a tad higher, but some say it doesn't matter what the rba does , ozzie will be on a downward trajectory. for page, take a look at oil on the bank of saudi arabia and russia saying they will put a lid on supplies. crude ups extensive 1%. we have seen it turning higher on the back of that up by 1.4%. rishaad: looking at what's going on with regards to general micro movers and -- equities well bid. we have the most equity benchmarks on the way down with taipei and the hong kong market up by .5%. we are looking at a dollar, which is pretty much flat, sterling on one dollar 26 89, the yen, 14460, the handle and euro 109. we are looking at the inversion of that yield curve in the u.s. we are also telling you about what we have coming up later on the program. we have our exclusive conversation with efg internationals boris on wealth i

some of the less enthusiastic members of the investigative committee, that think that the rba is going the very week cpi number that we saw last week, but we think that underlying inflation, the core inflation, which is the inflation indicators that the rba is looking at very closely, they still remain significantly above target, and given other very strong areas of the australian economy, we think of consumer spending, we think is probably prudent for the rba to hike once more, partly as a catchup play to other central banks as well. i catchup play to other central banks as well.— banks as well. i want to ask ou banks as well. i want to ask you about _ banks as well. i want to ask you about that _ banks as well. i want to ask you about that inflation - banks as well. i want to ask. you about that inflation rate, because i've noticed a lot of central bank governors talking about that lag, after a rate hike, how the impact on inflation has it rather slow. why is that?— why is that? the impact of monetary _ why is that? the impact of monetary policy _ why is that? the impact of monetary

what haidi: are your rba expectations?kets are split as to whether we get a pause or another move this week. is that a bigger mover for the aussie dollar or is it where we get meaningful stimulus from china? sean: the china question overlays everything. in terms of how high can the aussie rally. it is trading below where historically commodities suggest it is. no doubt we have very big movements in terms of the rba. we are looking for a rate hike clearly, we could virtually write the statement in advance as to why they would pause and why they would hike. it would be very messy on the day. we think in general, the base case is a hike this month and a hike in august. four point 6%. it limits the downside for the aussie, even if there is the ongoing pessimism on china. haidi: sean callow, currency senior strategist at westpac here in sydney. this incoming co-ceo says rising rates are taking trading. he told us exclusively white debt markets are at a major inflection point. >> the liquid in the market is lower today than what

it is still well above the rba target. that is why so many are still betting that at least one more hike. then you see what all of the numbers do after that. for now it will be an exciting meeting. that's what it looks like. shery: global economics and policy editor kathleen hays. we are watching the developing world. talking about rate hikes in developed markets. already in emerging markets we are seeing this jumbo rate cut by chile friday. the expectation was not for such a big rate cut of 100 basis points. it was decided unanimously by the chilean board. we are expecting a rate cut given that latin america has been really aggressive and much faster than the developed world when it comes to the rate hikes. chile is now sending a powerful message after we saw traders cutting inflation forecast near the 3% target in just 12 months. the government is now forecasting growth near zero. starting with july, these economies hike fast and much more than the developed world, seeing the benefits already of their economy stabilizing

that is the rba key rate. these key -- while these key measures have come down, they are way above the one to 3% target. phil roe has three more meetings. maybe he wants to do whatever hike he needs to be done in order to get inflation stable so when the inflation comes, she will not have such a hard task to do. the number here is retail sales. can they really hike again? what is going on is the retail sales numbers are down. 0.8%, that is the sign. perhaps on the rate hikes, a sign the cost of having to finance your mortgage going up with these rate hikes, taking some money out of your pocket book is hitting the consumer and showing that they are very close to the point if not there when they don't have to do more. despite the fact that you can see there is this consistent trend. across the brazil central bank is also available mobile. you only get that news and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> major bank earnings are underway in asia this week including the results from japan's top lenders

the rba is a political flashpoint in australia. remember the home prices were tightly tied to the rates. lowe's presence on the front page of newspapers across australia. bullock is a fresh start. more dovish around the margins. seen largely as a continuity candidate. but there is so much potential change coming to the rba that she will quickly have a chance to make her own stamp on the rba and we will be fascinated to see where that goes. i think that could be a bit of a leadership fix so watch that space there. manus: ok, great discussion. those are the top stories that will ultimately drive risk for us. valerie, thank you very much. and derek wallbank. in terms of everything else that we are going to cover through the show, we will talk about commodities and the bond market moves and where they can drive risk. one of the biggest moves of all is the yen. heading for its longest rally since 2018. the next move for the boj could be a tweaking of yield curve control or movement on currency trends. right here on "bloomberg daybreak:

it is, the rba its policymaking on steroids. i cannot nv the position that the bank is in at the moment because they are dealing with so much. you can understand why they have had to go back and forth so much over the past few months. lizzy: bank of america and citigroup said fast -- the fed's stress test got it wrong. city says it is too gloomy and bank of america says it is too rosy. yousef: look, when i think about what happened the bank stress test what stands out to me is this whole struggle with getting clarity and visibility on the health of the financial system in the united states. that story is far from over, and this debate between the fed and citigroup and bank of america needs to be sorted out asap in a year we have already had plenty of surprises right, christine? christine: absolutely and it is difficult for banks let alone policymakers trying to get a handle of how it will shape out for the next six months because at the start of this year, the narrative was that we will all end up in a recession across major eco

haslinda: some of our guests on changes at the rba.et's bring an our bloomberg economist for australia and new zealand. it does seem like bullock is the right person to bring changes to the rba. james: that is right. very well credentialed. even though she has only been deputy governor for a short time she has really stepped up and demonstrated she has what it takes. that was one of the reasons why she was in the rain. this is a good appointment. although i must admit i did think lowe, given his record on the economy, would have been reappointed, but there are some really good reasons, particularly around the government implementing this review of the rba, it will take a while to be better down. i think a move for more continuity and stability candidate such as bullock with a new seven-year term provides a good ground for those changes for the central bank to go smoothly in the years ahead. david: what about her ability to communicate policy to the market, and indirectly what i'm not seeing is the kerfuffle's mr. lowe had about talking

likely giving the rba reason to keep its guardrails up.ple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. shop now only at sleep number. haslinda: welcome back to bloomberg markets asia. india starts trading in about five minutes or so. looking ahead to key stories investors are watching. we get cpi and industrial production data later wednesday. surging food prices are expected to push up inflation in june after hitting a 20-month low in may. earnings ahead from the likes of tata c

the aussie dollar is also in the spotlight ahead of tomorrow's rba decision.hat are traders expecting? >> traders are expecting strongly that the rba will hold policy at four point 1%. there is a 75% chance for that. the majority of economists are forecasting a hike. that gives -- that gives us a chance for volatility. if there is a hike, you will get a jump in the aussie dollar. if it holds you will have a constituency saying the rba is done and it will call time on rate hikes for just about anybody else except for new zealand. in the short term at least you could say the aussie pop if the rba does raise, the pop will have trouble sustaining because he will also have a tendency for traders and economists to say the rba did the rate hike and that might be it. we expect them to do one more hike and they have. time to call it a day. lizzy: thank you to bloomberg mliv strategist garfield reynolds. time to call it a day on that conversation for now. coming up, western leaders say they are ready to use force to restore democracy in niger after last week's coup. mor

everybody is in the same place, they know the rba could do either thing.rol but you know it's making an improvement. you have to get on one side or the other. it's a decision from the rba where no one will be surprised that i the decision and everybody is waiting to see just what it is. of course. haidi: when it comes to the bank of japan, can we relax? kathleen: yes, according to our bloomberg survey. after that surprised week in yield curve control, still tied to zero, that .5 on the other side of the zero range is now in question because the boj said we are going to, not target it so closely and come in and buy bonds that 1% every day so the markets have been testing them overnight. the 10-year jgb getting up the .6% or over. here's our bloomberg survey, 41 economist, 90 1%, no more policy shifts, sit back and relax. 26% see the next policy shift in april, and in fact, nearly 80% of people seeing that next move see whenever it comes, it's going to be completely getting rid of yield curve control and then, 60% say that they will do something more dramati

at the rba, it looks like we will be getting a new rba governor before this hiking cycle is done. how disruptive is it for central banks to have big personnel changes midway or a quarter of the way through a cycle like this? >> it will be tricky, especially when you are getting close to that crucial point where you are fighting inflation, you have not won yet, not gotten it back down to your target, but there is a risk looming of economic weakness, and that is the point at which central banks have succeeded sometimes in staying the course or field by taking their foot off the brakes too soon and letting inflation run, so i think it is a delicate time for central-bank worship. kathleen: what will be jim bullard's legacy, jeff? >> he is a great economist and deeply steeped in economic models. if you are thinking coherently, if you have a story about how the world works, you have a model in your head. he is deeply deceived and the bottles where everything is on the table, you can see all of the assumptions, you can see with the mechanisms are, and he took that to the policymaking, de

we look at some of the cautionary signs for the rba, next.berg. ♪ fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. haidi: breaking news and actually a bit surprising, the numbers when it comes to cpi inflation out of new zealand, not quite as much as expected. we were expecting a gain of 5% when it comes to year-on-year. the second-quarter number is 6%. inflation pressures slowing a bit less than expected. also seeing the quarter-on-quarter number at 1.1%, harder than the 0.9% expectation and just a deceleration from the 1.2%. whether the year on year number is

some repricing when it comes to expectations for the rba.esilience of those job numbers that came through yesterday, expectations into over 50% that we will see the rba hike at its next meeting. sidney futures holding steady but muted. not much of a move with the aussie dollar. some u.s. dollar upside. that is petering through in the start of the session. kiwi stocks down by 2/10 of 1%. also watching dollar-yen. a bit of strength in the yen, under the 140 handle. japan inflation numbers coming through as well that potentially shifts the needle for market expectations, and bond market expectations certainly, as to whether the boj will tweak at its next meeting. an ex-ministry of finance official saying they certainly don't think that will happen just yet. that is just about it for daybreak: australia. daybreak: asia is next. ♪ more exercise. eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. with over 150 personalized genetic reports from 23andme you can start your dna-powe

we will get so much more insight for the rba governor.of the current rba governor phil lowe, when i touched her treasure chalmers at the imf spring meeting, he sounded so positive on phil lowe. is it really going to be the case that they figure that >lowe has done his job and it is time to move on? do they have to make it clear that they are looking at a field of possible next governors so they can reappoint lowe and have everybody say, "you did it the right way?" swati: that is a possibility. every single time they have spoken to journalists in the past couple weeks, both the prime minister and jim chalmers have reiterated that governor phil lowe is very much a contender. they have said good things about him and how he is a seasoned central bank, and very experienced and has done his job very well during one of the toughest times in history. so he is definitely a contender. there are other people of that shortlist as well, which the treasurer and the prime minister has not openly spoken about. but we know that there is treasurer secretar

the rba data hold.had that gut punch reaction of moving lower. they might need to hike more. brent crude getting a bit after saudi and russia decided to keep those oil cuts going, that was a unilateral decision ahead of an opec symposium. we will see how that plays with the rest of the cartel. let's stay on the central bank story. we had some more from the ecb. there still some way to go in the banks hiking campaign as upside risks to the price outlook. joining us to discuss is the chief global economist at capital economics. really wonderful to speak with you today. the euro has failed to break out of this range. a continuation of hire for longer in europe. you think rates will stay higher for longer in europe more so than the u.s.. why. >> i think that probably is right. that tone we can see is really consistent with what we've seen at sintra last week. i'm not that surprised that it hasn't moved markets significantly but it's clear that the time from the ecb is a pretty -- tone from the ecb is a hawk

pretty much in line with what we rba is thinking. are still wages cross coming, services are still sticky, and the outlook for inflation for q3 and q4 is for higher levels and that will be a test for the rbi. shery: rodrigo catril, good to have you with us with a look at currency markets. of course as we await all the rate decisions this week. coming up, twitter getting rid of the bluebird that has long been its signature. more on elon musk's rebrand, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> protecting freedom, observing the -- and doing the daily work of building a more just and peaceful world. that is what americans and australians have been doing together for more than 100 years. haidi: u.s. ambassador to australia caroline kennedy speaking as the u.s. commissioned a worship in sydney -- a warship in sydney. this was a long time in the making and a lot of pomp and ceremony. it was just down the road from us. but the symbolism of this coming at a crucial time of uncertainty. paul: a hugely symbolic event. it underscores the enduring relations

market watches over and rba pause or hike.esla tops expectations as price cuts lift second-quarter deliveries to a record, 83% from last year. shery: u.s. futures muted early in the session. we have the fourth of july tuesday. this, after the s&p 500 already rallied to the highest since 2022. we had the rebound in tech stocks. inflation data coming in softer than expected and that led the milestone for apple as well, reaching the $3 trillion mark. we have seen u.s. treasuries a bit mixed. the ten-year yield holding at the 3.84 level. this is we try to digest a softer than expected inflation data and consumption numbers. oil prices at the moment, wti holding around $70 a barrel after three sessions of gains. in the broader context, we have to say that the wti has still seen the first back-to-back quarterly losses for the first time since 2019. a lot of it to do with the potential for global demand really falling, faltering, given what is happening in china. annabelle: i was just about to say, given what is happening in china, e

let's see with rba does tomorrow. rba -- haslinda: rba on tuesday. ishika mookerjee there.ed by master cars chief economist. -- mastercard's chief economist. that and more still to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ grand canyon university specializes in helping you fit a master's degree in business into your busy day. your graduation team led by your own gcu counselor provides you with the personal support you need to succeed! find your purpose. visit gcu.edu >> it is certainly possible that we will raise funds again at the september meeting if the data weren't it. >> we have an open mind as to what decisions will be in september and subsequent meetings. >> i want to stress that the decision today to tweak ycc is not a step towards normalization . the aim is to enhance the sustainability of the monetary easing. >> we are comfortable cutting rates when we are comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year i don't think. rishaad: a set of central-bank leaders on the monetary policy outlook. we came off the federal reserve last week, ecb and bank of japan. now we have attenti

certainly for the rba. being pressed into markets as they push through another hike. when it comes to markets in japan, we are watching next week's boj decision. whether or not that faster than us but the clip of inflation that we got in the last hour is really going to move the needle for the tweaking of why cc, we will expect the governor to continue pouring cold water over these market expectations. we are seeing kiwi stocks turning flat. also, some volatility when it comes to energy markets given the moves by the senate as well as some geopolitical indications there as well. ♪ hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's

as we go into the rba meeting there will be parallels with the fed eating, the market both fx traders interest-rate traders, they think there is a long-term future here for rates on the way down. it is just a question of when it accelerates, we get a hold first and then a tumble in rates? or will the rba give a signal that it is ready to start pushing rates down before the end of the year. it will be a close call decision already people are thinking that the peak for rates is already in australia now it is just a question of when will the central bank be ready to start lowering rates on the others. >> power fx traders going to be setting up for the fed meeting later? >> there is a lot of dollar shorts out there, if you look at the data there is weekly data composed by the cftc every week and there has been a big shift in the way that they leverage people. they are getting more short of the dollar across the board, the one that stands out that is not the case is the japanese yen. people are still bearish on the yen but generally they have gone dovish on the u.s. dollar whether it is ag

would be the first female governor to head up the rba., treasury secretary, held a lot of senior positions, phd in economics, well-qualified. then phil lowe himself as you mentioned, the last two governors had their terms extended. phil would like to continue with the job, get another three years. anthony albanese he saying the decision is for the cabinet. it will be taken in an orderly way. shery: we have seen a lot of challenges for phil lowe in the last few years. especially with the pandemic and perhaps even some criticism about how he dealt with it when it comes to communication. what are the chances that his term is extended? paul: there is every chance and phil said he wants to continue in the job. if he got an extension it would be three years taken after 10 years, with the last two governors got as well. the opposition has weighed in as well. the finance spokesperson jane says she would like to see phil lowe reinstated for another three years because she says replacing him during tightening would sort of raise political questions

we're getting the rba decision as well. we are seeing moves across the margins in terms of expectations there. kiwi stocks down marginally. watching the chicago nikkei futures, looking flat at the moment. it's likely to be a turbulent session when it comes to japan. i should mention looking ahead to china things are looking burdensome as well for the futures picture despite the conversation around how much support we can get from the property sector. front and center, it is about the boj. kathleen: no quiet ending to this week. we are watching yen ahead of the bank of japan decision, after the sneaky report, that policymakers will at least have yield control. let's ring and are chief markets editor -- bring in our chief market editor. david ingles. you expect something that could be a bit ugly. david: well, i suspect equity markets lay the region, by the way we are seeing in the bond markets in australia, you're are pointing out with this massive move up in yields, we will need to adjust to the chart action we had overnight

for joining me in studio i know you can talk everything in the rates world i want to kickoff in the rba what do you make of the decision and i suppose what do you make of their outlook >> so our economists called for a pause. hats off to them on the right side of the 50/50 split you stated in terms of the consensus. we look for a hike in august and then a skip at the end of the hiking cycle the statement affirms that it goes to show it is really, really difficult for central banks to figure out when this have done enough the rba is in the process of trying to do just that >> do you think they are close to hitting their terminal rate >> we think so if you look at the pressures, they are looking to ease and we obviously have a big mortgage reset story in australia as well that will do somef of the rba's job to pass through the higher rates into the economy yes, we do think we are closer to the end, of course. >> do you have a view on the rates curve in australia what are you advising clients? >> given what the market was pricing into the meeting, we flagged for a steepening compared to ot

the rba, which was expected to deliver one more looking at cash trade futures up until this inflation report about 40 minutes ago, is now pricing and may be a possibility that the rba might already be done. the direction of travel, data seems to suggest that it's perhaps more intuitive for central banks to stay steady and wait for more data to support the view. yvonne: is it close to the event or are we still kind of wait and see and keeping on this hawkish hold and leaving the door open? that's kind of what they are tilting towards. i think the front end is pricing in a 50-50 chance that after july we could still see another hike from the fed. i have to wonder how powell feels. is he comfortable with where pricing is right now, and that will really take the tone. rishaad: when we add to it, there is a normalization process. we have not had interest rates, essentially free money for probably 100 years for the length of time that we have and it gives them the bullets and the guns for what they perhaps need to do if there's another downturn in the years to come. this is your global macr

in the session today, not just the boj in focus, the rba will be watching the jobs numbers and a couple the expectation around 15,000 jobs be added over the month. that will keep the unemployment rate steady. are continuing to see the later market trading tight. we are starting to see more pessimism coming into households. perhaps telling us that enough of the job has been done for the rba and it cannot afford to keep steady as we end the term at the central bank. haidi: want to do bring you an update on and developing story, new zealand police said a gunman and to other people are dead after a shooting incident in downtown auckland. it comes hours before they are set to host the opening ceremony of the fifa women's world cup. it appears there is no national security risk and no ongoing threat. shery: let's turn to singapore, the former cio of gic is planning to run for president. ahead of his formal nomination, he told us exclusively why he is seeking the position. >> i would like to give the people of singapore the opportunity to exercise their right to vote. we have had five presiden

even though we do think the rba has already done enough. toward the latter stage of the heightening cycle showing hikes slow down. central banks having pauses and resuming that tightening. i think that is all quite normal. it does not make sense for central banks to move more cautiously because they have already done so much. and to allow better assessment as to the impact of those in terms of the legs. historically if you look at monetary tightening cycles in australia over the last 30 years, they have hikes and pauses that will need to be abated. characterized by the natural aggressive move. that runs with it a much bigger risk to take the economy to recession. of course, that was followed by recession. shery: what does it mean for equity market returns in this environment? >> we've had a good run over the last four months, which surprised many. the height of war is about inflation and interest rates. lo and behold, global shares showing something like 90%. something like 15%. good financial yield. right here right now, you can make the a

does this speak to some turmoil at the rba?ve obviously had the question whether the governor would be reappointed. you have had the sexiness of staff. -- exodus of staff. i think more opportunities presented themselves. the combination is a lot of corporate experience that has been lost. whoever takes over will have to implement major reform of the bank. you want your corporate memory they are. if it is a new person, perhaps a makes it more challenging. haidi: you have hinted that it will hang on the next rba governor. how does the political pressure work in terms of who the political appointee might be? >> i do not think anyone could say who it will be. the case for change is strong because of the upheaval that has been going on in the central bank. it will look uncomfortable if the governor is removed given that he is in the middle of a tightening cycle. but there is a case of bringing in a treasury secretary. the other person spoken about is a potential first female head of treasury. that would be my sense but i have no mor

his term is due to finish on the 17th of september and marks the end of his 43 year career at the rbary of state antony blinken has told china's top diplomat in a meeting at jakarta that washington will take action to hold hackers accountable. it comes after microsoft said china—based hackers gained access to the e—mail accounts of around 25 organisations. the software giant has not provided details of where those government agencies are based but the us department of commerce has confirmed to the bbc that microsoft notified it about the attack. now to thailand where businesses are watching and waiting for a new government to be in place. it has been two months after that national calls which signals strongly for change. the progessive alliance that won general election has been blocked from forming a government after the military appointed senate rejected its candidate for prime minister. earlier i spoke with a fellow at the kennedy school of government at harvard and told me this situation is creating a great deal of uncertainty for businesses. i think businesses, like many people,

watching the currency space, the aussie dollar drifting lower following the rba decision and looking at that japanese yen approaching once again the 1.45 mark. heidi. heidi: let's get market analysis with mark. what are you watching out for today in the trading action? mark: today if we get any excitement it will come in the currency space. the china central bank pboc has had success with strong fixings for the rishaad: yuan getting a little traction but seeing dollar-yuan around that level which is an improvement from what we were seeing last week so you probably will not see him -- them relax. we can expect the fixing to be set well below traders estimates to make sure that everyone gets the message that the chinese interbank has run out of patience and would like to see a stronger yuan. they will know by the middle of july the big tax payments made by chinese onshore companies would drain some of the money out of the money markets and lift short-term interest rates and help to support the yuan as well so if they can get to the next couple of weeks without too much weakness in the

we had the rba radio hold rates this month.gain, they have their own quarterly inflation numbers coming later on in july. those show an extraordinary slowdown i think for the rba to not go again in august. the bank of new zealand, the reserve bank of new zealand is expected to hold, yes, but it is still expecting to hike again at least once in this is -- this cycle despite the technical recession because the labor market is showing too much strength and inflation is too high. there have been a few signs of strains in the credit banking space with these cooperatives that have been wobbling lately. but, they will also be sending the message, that we are not moving this time, but we remain ready to hike. it is kind of an inverse of the bank of japan. for years we had the bank of japan saying, we remain ready to pursue more extraordinary easing. the measures -- message from central banks other than the bank of japan across the world is weak prepared to do more extraordinary tightening. i think that is the message both the bank of k

this is part of the monetary policy statement, released four times a year by the rba.lier, i spoke with markets analyst olivier d'assier of qontigo who gave us his expectations for china's latest factory activity. it's likely to continue for a wild because it is still driven by manufacturing and dependent on global trade and, you know, geopolitical environment, and we are not having any of these right now. even germany's industrial complex is sluggish a bit so it's notjust china but everywhere. global demand in mostly services is given by technical communication services and big tech so —— shows and manufacturing are a bit sluggish, yes. i shows and manufacturing are a bit sluggish, yes.— bit sluggish, yes. i want to talk about _ bit sluggish, yes. i want to talk about japan _ bit sluggish, yes. i want to talk about japan because l bit sluggish, yes. i want to talk about japan because it talk aboutjapan because it took markets by surprise in terms of what its central bank has done which makes its bond yield control policy more flexible. what are your expectations about

the last two months, so are we going to see a trifecta and they will be proven wrong again and the rbaconsensus? so, yeah, jury is out at the moment. i want to ask you about china's economy as well because we have been getting quite a lot of weak economic data about the second biggest economy of the world, which of course is a crucial trading partner for australia. how concerned are you? we are very concerned as far as the health and naturally the internal demand from china. we have got exports going at record levels in the sense of iron ore production, and strong demand from china in that regard, but the overall weakness across the global economy is weakness that is internalised in china, and that, we have felt that in australia with a weak dollar. i guess for the us it is a very different problem where we are going to getjobs data and the economy has been showing quite a lot of resilience despite some predicting that a recession might be around the corner. what are you expecting in terms of the jobs data and what impact would that have on a rates decision by the fed? well, we have go

at 6683 after the rba stood paired, it was a whirlwind. after that moved by the rba.e page take a look at where we are in terms of those ne-yo, byd, on the back of tesla seeing a surgeon shipments in china. we know tesla has been cutting prices to lift demand in the country. alibaba currently down by 1.6%. of course that is on the news that is exploring options for its video entertainment asset. it still to come life at the omf i meeting in hong kong. it keep it here with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network. bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences

lucy ellis, the chief economist at the rba itself, will be taking his place. that's interesting to me because it narrows down the scope for who will be next to be the rba governor if we do not see reappointment. lucy ellis was one of the names being suggested as a successor. >> she is taking another great job. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen is apparently doing a great job herself wrapping up talks with chinese leaders in beijing saying she believes relations between the two countries are now on surer footing. let's bring in our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle in hong kong. what stood out to you? stephen: really, her emphasis to all the leaders in beijing she met with. that de-risking does not mean decoupling. of course this is just semantics. it is something beijing has taken to the heart and at the world economic forum a couple weeks ago where i listened to the premier speak he called the day risking proposition a false narrative. they feel that de-risking means decoupling. a lot of the narrative out of the state media in beijing has been

australian the inflation data that we do get this week, which will have a lot to say about what the rba does. what that will not have a major impact globally. everybody is waiting for that named last hike. when is it going to be? is it going to be this month for the fed, and is it going to be september for the ecb? so, what indications will we get from the ecb when they make them? shery: not to mention of course tons of earnings out this week. 170 of the s&p 500 companies reporting results. it seems the earnings outlook is getting better? garfield: yeah, very much so. that's a big part of why i would expect even if we do get a more hawkish central bank set of decisions and commentary, that equities are likely to ride that out more strongly. that very picture, we have gotten economy, the u.s. economy data is strong to expectations. and we have these expectations of strong profit growth returning for companies. that both acts as a spur to the fed to hike -- not to hike, but to further hikes, as well as sort of safeguarding equities rally against that. you might get a bit of a selloff init

two outs for turlock, the rookie , his first rba in his career. mom and dad love that. of the night, tied at two, the former giant mauricio dubon, homerun. another reverse boycott for a's fans this time at orville park, so this should be to sing. cooperstown were two new members were inducted into -- into the hall of fame, the 95 brace champ and a time all-star scott rolen finished with 493 homers, would have got 500 if not for the strike of 94, and while roland got just a percent of the book, the lowest percentage of anybody who was eventually elected into the hall, he may ask about that. brian harman, a five shot lead masters champion tried to push on the rough on a par 5, into the green, two-putt for birdie, cut for lead to a three, but harmon responded from 40 feet out on 14, that is not great golf weather, the birdie is going to drop, gets them back to -12 and -13, pushing the lead t sex, still a six shot lead in the bunker, marvelous chip, he's starting to feel it. a six shot win, his first ever major championship first tour victory since 2016, opening up by six s

had been wrong the last few months i will be chf actor and they will be proven wrong again and the rbaainst consensus? jury is out at the moment. i against consensus? jury is out at the moment.— at the moment. i want to ask about china's _ at the moment. i want to ask about china's economy - at the moment. i want to ask i about china's economy because we are getting weak economic data about the second biggest economy of the world which is a crucial trading partner for australia. how concerned are you? australia. how concerned are ou? ~ ., australia. how concerned are ou? . ., . australia. how concerned are ou? ., ., you? we are concerned as far as the health _ you? we are concerned as far as the health and _ you? we are concerned as far as the health and the _ you? we are concerned as far as the health and the internal- the health and the internal demand from china. we have got exports going at record levels in the sense of iron ore production and strong demand from china in that regard but the overall weakness across the global economy is weakness that is internalised in china and we

this is part of the monetary policy statement, released four times a year by the rba.

we are keeping an eye on the rba rate decision. how hawkish will the rba be? on tuesday along with korea's cpi. the caixin pmi's services data will be out on thursday for june. plenty more in the weeks ahead traders to keep a watch on. rishaad: 22, the program as well. franklin templeton telling us how indian markets have peaked but not in terms of valuations. more on their preferred text coming up later this hour but first why xi jinping's leadership moves and leadership means little changed for chinese monetary policy. more next with bloomberg. ♪ when you see all the people who work at shriners hospitals for children. you might see everyday people just doing their job. but to me and other kids, they aren't just receptionists, therapists or doctors. they're superheroes! but these superheroes are only able to help all of us kids because of the monthly support of people just like you who empower their abilities, so we get the care we need to live our lives like superkids. because people like you have said, yes, now i can play football because of people like you

to june we had yesterday but certainly that viewed that potentially we have one more move from the rbalose to peak rates if we are not already there is being priced into australian bond markets, we are seeing that being removed ahead of that rba meeting next week. our reporter joins us now in sydney. jerome powell tread that fine line, right, did not want to get to dovish or perceived to be too hawkish. what are the implications for markets? >> he is giving himself plenty of outs. he sees the totality of the data, so that is, that has kept everybody, the knots in their stomachs have been undone other bit but we will not be jumping a cars every time there is a bad print. it changes and lots of stuff but what i think he has effectively done is shift the narrative for the debate from how high to one that maturation, higher for longer. you know there is 50-50 pricing at best for a november hike. now if that does not happen, people will rush in and buy bonds and probably sell the dollar because i think ok, the debate is how long they will keep it at that level. that could be even higher for

is there more political pressure on the rba than ever?ichard: the optical pressure has definitely ramped up on all central banks the last couple of years. they all had a correlated policy challenge in the pandemic and the stimulus may be justified at the time but then kept too long and created this inflation challenge, and a synchronized challenge after. i do not expect the focus to diminishment domestically we can get back to focusing on the outcome of dealing with this inflation challenge. haidi: it will be complicated for the rba. i am interested in the human occasion aspect. does that heighten the risk? richard: they have a lot to do, no doubt about that. then there is the transformation challenge as a result of the review. it must make things more complicated. but on the policy side they will continue to focus hard on that is the obviously have. it probably makes it easier, the fact we are at a peak, or very close to a peak in the interest rate cycle. haidi: australia's economic fortune still depends on what we see out of china. i wa

more than expected slowdown in price pressures and that potentially boosting the conditions for the rbaause again. the biggest moves we saw as we saw the following when it comes to u.s. dollar strength was in emerging markets. stocks as well as currencies gaining as the dollar took a tumble. others extended earlier gains. watching the yen at 1.40 holding steady ahead of the bank of japan decision the end of this week. much more to come, this is bloomberg. bloomberg. - [mo] if you're thinking about going back to school, this is for you. ♪ - i ended up spending less money my entire time at snhu than i did in just one year at my other university. - [juan] my time at snhu has given me more confidence. now i can go for that promotion. - if you're ready to go back to school... you can do it. southern new hampshire university has changed my life. and it can change yours too. ♪ - [announcer] visit snhu.edu. >> staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast but given the resilience of the economy recently, there are no longer forecasting recession. we will