we are waiting for the rba rate decision.tations are it will stand pad for a third eating in a row, on the back of the economy sharing signs -- showing signs of some weakness. a hawkish tone is expected from the rba on the back of the pretty hot property sector. paul, let's get your take on what is happening and what is expected from the rba. >> no change, which is no surprise. the cash rate stays at 4.53% for a third straight meeting, a 12 year high. now the tricky part begins, picking through the statement to figure out where we are heading next. here are some of the highlights from the statement. the board of resolute and determination to get cpi back to target, echoing some of the remarks we saw at the last decision, that inflation remains a priority for the rba, running at 4.1% at the moment. but the monthly january figure was down to 3.4%. it is heading in the right direction. the rba also saying, to that point, inflation continues to moderate but remains high. the wage growth level is consistent with the inflation targ

we are watching the rba on rba decision day. we are not expecting any change or easing from them yet but let's get to the markets on what could be a momentous day for japanese markets. annabelle: it is the focus on what the boj does later in terms of the key rate. there are a lot of different things and the messaging we get in the presser later this afternoon is it a one and done scenario or changing of the back and setting a new course for the direction of rates? the strength of the wage negotiation has been heralded by the government and economists and caught a lot of people by surprise and the question is if it trickles down to the smaller enterprises but today this is what we see the japanese yen holding steady and we expect it to stay like that ahead of the boj decision but equities a notch under pressure so far, they were benefiting from a weaker yen and we will see if that trend continues but lots of different areas and parts of the market that could benefit from the policy shift, banks, brokerages, small-cap stocks some

we are watching the rba on rba decision day.t expecting any change or easing from them yet but let's get to the markets on what could be a momentous day for japanese markets. annabelle: it is the focus on what the boj does later in terms of the key rate.

the rba toned down its hawkish bias but kept it. if there was some expectation that it would go fully neutral. on the one hand to the australian did it would argue more toward the idea they could go neutral, but the rba is expected to be quite concerned at the stickiness in u.s. inflation in particular, so that makes it extremely unlikely they will change their policy settings, so they are expected to hold interest rates at their current high end signal they are willing to hike again if the data requires it. annabelle: that was stephen engle and garfield reynolds in sydney. china's economy and focus as we look ahead to its monthly data dump in the race to hit beijing's ambitions 5% growth target. we will have a preview coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: -- annabelle: taking a look at different risk assets as we await the biggest week of central-bank decisions over the course of 2023 so far. it points to the level of uncertainty, a lot of traders think they know where they are going this week, but you want to wait and see for the

certainly, we could see some repricing ahead of rba expectations of the timeline towards easing.l narrative, higher-for-longer, for australia at least. we have got japan and south korea coming online. this is what we're seeing so far, the nikkei 225 opening fairly flat. with kospi, a few seconds until we see

watching the rba, not expecting necessarily a major change from rba. a lot of domestic activity indicators trending in the wrong direction, so the rba is widely expected to hold that the 12 year high for interest rates on tuesday. particularly watching concerns of unemployment trends headed higher as well, but this is the picture is busy australian stocks declining. miners are some of the big heavyweight since we see iron ore language. fortescue leading losses, but real estate one of the laggards as well. health shares it dragging the sector lower after be so u.s. stocks falling after what has been a volatile week. aussie dollar, .6559, watching for any indication the greenback could burst it of its range bound trading options we have seen over the past few weeks, but the iron ore price amid concerns about the china did it we are expecting later weighing on the aussie dollar as well. treasuries starting to show signs of caution in the market after 10 years on the worst week so far this year. we are seeing traders darling back bets on the pace and the s

the boj in the rba removing it from a hawkish language. the other major story for us this week, above and beyond the central banks is the corporate story and ai story that is nvidia. unveiling new chips aimed at the dominance of ai computing. the ceo showed off a new process of design called blackwell at the company's dtc conference in california. >> hoffer changed the world. this is blackwell. tom: let's get more from bloomberg intelligence for the analysis on what we have been hearing from the ceo. this announcement around the blackwell chip. an upgrade to its processors around ai. your take away from what we heard. >> this was a widely anticipated an for the continued ship. about 2.5 more times more powerful than the hopper platform it replaces in the be 100, it will be the new technology to replace the h 100. as well as the performance, it is very keen to emphasize the reduced power consumption of this new platform. which every corporate is incredibly sensitive to their environmental footprint. so it will be a much more confrontational

we might even get back to a situation we had only a few days ago when the rba was potentially not goingil november. annabelle: we will see bets building perhaps again when it comes to the fed. i would likely to see traders edge back into aggressive positioning for cuts? garfield: it depends on the data. we got pce inflation reports coming next week. if those meet expectations, price to the upside, it might limit some of the recent optimism in the bond market. but those three cuts, it will take in extorting their set of data and fed speak to push us back below three cuts, act to less than three cuts, sorry. the more likely scenario is exactly if we get a little bit of weakness in the pce data and/or if we get fed speakers doubling down on house assessment that the current readings in inflation are not that big a concern, you almost think they might be starting to ponder the inflation is becoming transitory again, who knows? be that as it may, the market has a lot more scope to increase the number of rate cuts it expects than decrease after the fed stuck with its dot plots this year. we w

we are seeing the financial stability report from the rba.m the samuel -- from the semiannual report we are getting news that households are stronger and they expect that rates will rise further but remained relatively low and banks are well prepared to handle and expected increase in loan losses. the rba trying to assess the view of elevated inflation and high borrowing cost squeezing households and some businesses. the geopolitical risk is the overlay. this week was a big one for australia and china relations. the chinese foreign minister says beijing is willing to deepen its ties and restore its dialogue with australia. he had his first visit to australia in seven years. ahead of that visit beijing announced it was considering lifting trade tariffs on australian wine. with us is geoff raby, chairman at business advisory firm. he was previously australia's ambassador to china. to say that the relationship fraid could be a bit of an understatement. if you look at the outcomes from the visit this week, was it more or less what you expected? g

does this impact the rba decision? >> the rba has been sounding quite hawkish.though they have left interest rates unchanged in december and february. they kept their hawkish stance. the question for march for later this month is whether they drop the hawkish stance and start preparing the market for normal rate hikes but not starting cut yet's but no more rate hikes which they are not ruling out. if today's date it is weak, they might say that we don't need any more interest rate hikes in the economy. if the data is strong because we had strong export in yesterday's reports. if the data is driven by exports, we might want to keep the hawkish stance. haidi: if the data is weak, what is the recession risk? >> there is a possibility. 0.2% is very close to zero or negative. that is the risk some economists are talking about. on our survey, the lowest forecast is 0%. i think it -- what it might mean is the rba when it raised in november, it was raising an economy that was already in recession. it points to a policy error on their part. if you look on a per capita ba

a lot of it is to do of expectations of what we might get from the rba as well.aland trading on the back foot. singapore nikkei futures looking perky .8%. as was mentioned earlier a lot of focuses on japan today, given it is looking like we are one whisker away from the 40,000 level for the nikkei to do five and whether that continues to drive more momentum behind this extraordinary japanese rally. we have a few data points out today including japanese capital spending giving us more of a gauge of how corporate japan is feeling about investment. u.s. futures look pretty flat at the moment. we are watching euro politics and the leaders of nine southeast asian nations and australia are gathering in melbourne today for three day meeting to commemorate 50 years of relations between australia and this block here -- the ase an block. ben wescott joins us from the summit. these relationships and the fortification of these ties takes on new importance given a strengthening china. ben: absolutely. at this particular moment when we have a growing military presence in china

to eventual rba easing, or dropping that tightening bias, at least.reaction to that assessment coming through. you are seeing weakness in the aussie dollar. you have also got the asx 200 extending its gains, around 0.2%. that is the market reaction. let's shift to equities. you can see the slide. yields, pretty steady at this point in time. let's change now to the latest on the baltimore bridge collapse, one of the top stories we are tracking today. officials say active search and rescue operations have been suspended, six people and accounted and presumed dead. the disaster happened when a cargo ship lost power and around the francis scott key bridge in the early hours of tuesday morning, destroying it in this matter of seconds. president biden says the federal government will pay to reopen the bridge and reopened the port as soon as possible. pres. biden: i spoke with the governor as well as the mayor of baltimore, the county executive and both united senators and the congressmen. my secretary of transportation is on the scene. i told them we will s

this morning we heard from sarah hunter from the rba the deputy governor acknowledging her the assistantr acknowledging the households in australia and businesses are clearly struggling at the moment. annabelle: what else has been struggling is the china equity market. rising geopolitical troubles. the latest issue we are discussing on that point. let's discuss that with our reporter joining us from singapore. we always have geopolitics as one of the things we talk about. sometimes the economy or other issues but it seems that geopolitics is coming back to the four. how will that play into the ark it in the near term -- market in the near term? >> we are back talking about geopolitical tensions. i felt they had died down towards the end of last year. since the start of the year we are seeing health care, technology, the chip space in particular and on the tv front where the u.s. is -- on the ev front where the u.s. is moving to curb china's dominance on the global stage. in the health care space you will have firms facing restrictions on accessing federal contracts. in the ev space, the

rba financial stability review is due out later. looking at the start of trading in japan and korea, a picture for u.k. -- nikkei for service -- futures up 1/10 of 1% but asian stocks researching to the high on the back of dovish expectations from the fed this week bell. annabelle: that is continuing to power u.s. stocks overnight with the s&p 500 hitting the 20th record high for the year. strong data coming through in the labor market and housing and manufacturing and these are things that point to a strong economy and the overarching narrative and what is grabbing attention continues to be the fed and the message that we will see rate cuts this year so the nasdaq as well likewise hit a record high and treasury yields we did not see much movement but 10 year continuing to hold around 4.3%. dollar gains had the best day in three weeks and dollars drink something that hits commodities overall because you see wti coming on more soft so continuing to hold above the $80 per barrel level so questions around the supply deficit we will lik

our forecast is for the rba to ease policy rate by 75 basis points by the end of this year.are expecting a more gradual easing cycle so from that rate perspective, i think there's some more downside to the aussie dollar in the near term but beyond that, we are pretty bullish on the aussie dollar. if global central banks are able to cut interest rates in the upcoming year, then chances are, the global economic outlook can improve and risk appetite can improve as well and that is usually a very big positive for the aussie dollar so i think the aussie dollar can reach about 71 u.s. cents by the end of this year. >> what about the aussie against others? there's a few different outlooks. we have the rbnz still sounding a bit, you know, mixed on their outlook here perhaps in the end of the cycle but you have you have the boe playing into it. what are we expecting against other major currencies? carol: for the other major aussie rates, they will probably follow the aussie and u.s. exchange rate trajectory so we have all the major cross rates tracking higher through the end of this

support in the aussie 10-year above 4% with the rba on hold and cash trade at 4.35%. treasury futures, no traded in japan. it got treasury futures looking like this, moving iron as we count down to the fed decision. we will get a new dot plot and that will give us an idea of where we are heading. haidi: let's get a better idear of where the markets are heading. audrey joins us now. the bank of japan decision and the repricing of expectations, has that changed your view of japanese risk assets? >> not really. they strike a balanced tone. at the same time, another potential rate hike. if you look back again, reaction has been muted. the end beat modestly after announcements. if we assume that the low hanging fruit with the rally has been taken up, what are the next opportunities you see in japan? corporate funds are ongoing and we are seeing flows and domestic perspective. longer term we have a constructive few on equities. emergence will allow corporate's to have more pricing power, revenue and profitability. something we are tracking closely with the revision and japa

of float was strong labor market data last week, that reposition some of the expectations around the rbagesting they are in no rush to have to cut rates. potentially that we miss on the consumer confidence front showing how much households have been affected by this rate regime. annabelle: even though we had that reporting last week that perhaps australians could withstand for the rate hikes, but let's look at what we are seeing in the commodity space this morning. iron ore just coming online in the last few minutes. if you think about where we were just a few days ago, we were closer to $100 a ton. so it has been a pretty big advance we are seeing. the largest one last week in six months. so it does play into the increasing optimism that we're starting to see a bit of recovery in demand from china. there's also the question if we will see more policy support coming through for the property sector as well and we are getting some reports to that effect. oil, just tracking those moves because we do see it holding steady at the $82 a barrel level. we're hearing that opec-plus is hopeful in

we are watching some of the commentary from the rba this morning. talking about some of the caution. quite a bit of caution across this area. even across asia. taking a look at the equity session. we did have the recession for australian stocks in a year ahead of the u.s. cpi. that biggest loss all year potentially set to extend into the tuesday session as well. taking a look at how we are setting up when it comes to japan and the korean markets around the region. some downside there for new zealand. a pretty difficult session for japan equities. nikkei futures up by a quarter of 1%. looking at muted but further declines. the two equity benchmarks in japan something more than 2% on monday amidst these loan speculations about the time. we are also seeing a little bit of dollar weakness playing into yen strength there. finally, quite a lot of concern building in the chinese demand. we are seeing them modestly higher at the moment. >> and just listening to some of the keywords. it is modest. you have futures here come online. we have equities moving in

>> we are expecting the rba to cut in june.lso conscious that the growth outcomes have been surprising on the upside and if growth does continue to surprise on the upside, there is a possibility that are b.i. may not take it up at all. but at this time, our base case is that they will probably pick up a shallow rate cut cycle in june. >> great stuff. chief asian economist at morgan stanley, do come back soon. plenty more ahead, especially on baseball in asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the los angeles dodgers and san diego padres are set to play in south korea in the first games of the major league baseball season. show hair tell me and kim on the field. 2024 is standing out to be the moment in asia. for more, let's bring in kim from seoul. why is mlb holding this event in seoul? >> this is the first time mlb is opening its season in south korea and it's also a big debut game for shelley otani. all of baseball fans eyes are on seoul right now. mlb's decision to hold the event in seoul is truly an interesting choice. korea has beco

and similar with the rba, the central bank.on under 3%. in the latest monthly reading, it was at three which is adding right direction, but it is still higher than headline inflation. --it higher than headline inflation. ——it was at 3.4%, so it is heading in the right direction. the government has been attempting to do some cost of living pressure relief. however, then, that stokes inflation if they do it too much. but a lot of it is easing up much. but a lot of it is easing up with other price increases, like private health insurance, which has eaten up a lot of the most recent tax cut. so they are very much struggling to resolve the cost—of—living pressures people are facing. i5 pressures people are facing. is it mainly about that, the cost—of—living pressures? to what extent is it that china is having a tough time and as such an important economy to australia. how is that impacting australia as well? china has heavily impacted things, in terms of ppi and cba, they are in deflation. the property sector has been facing signifi

we had the rba in australia and other central banks at play, including the blanank of englant play.he rest of the world asking when it begins to cut interest rates. the question for the fed iswhat does the rate path look like? is it three cuts that seems to be at play? we are sitting flat across the european trading this the early morning trade. yesterday, we had the somber start to the trading week. you saw the likes of the telecom stocks falling 1.4%. the worst day in three months for the sector. autos managed to climb 0.9%. where are they today? you see autos gaining on the back of what we saw yesterday. autos managing to rise 1.3%. we will unpack that more in a little bit. the oil as gas sector is up 0.6% in the trading picture. it falls on from the oil and gas stocks yesterday. brent crude touching that $86 a barrel mark before coming down slightly. a mixed picture here. stocks gainers and losers this morning. the likes of unilever announcing they are separating from the ice cream business and will keep that as a standalone part of the business. that share price is moving up. m

i feel like the rba hardly will get a look in on the same day next week.[laughter] isaac: yeah, i mean, it really is all about the global investment community, and it is only worried about what the fed will do, how soon they will cut, and what that will allow the economy to do over the second half of the year, and we are seeing that the u.s. economy is slowing. the unemployment rate has moved higher, and retail sales are weaker in general. unfortunately, this is happening as inflation has been sticky, and a real risk that the fed disappoints the market, even though it is being dragged to three rate cuts, and that is all that is going to matter for the currency and equity markets, like the rest of this year, i think, because, ultimately, fundamentals are week, earnings growth is low, so if rates are cut because the economy is slowing, that could be a catalyst for u.s. equity valuations and a real risk to extended valuations now. annabelle: there's that mean there could be a contrarian opportunity for china? haidi: whether it be actual, you know, start of in

you really give the rba the opportunity to remain more hawkish compared to the rest of the g10 peers.e think they will pre-much cut later unless versus the rest of g10. thus, that is the main reason we are quite positive in the australian dollar at the moment. as you mentioned, dollar cny has been very stable. that also gives a little support to the australian dollar. paul: as we have a strengthening in, what does that mean for japanese equities? the nikkei has had an amazing few months. would there be a temptation here to take some profits? mandy: i would think that the nikkei will probably continue to do quite well. the yen i think it will remain a little bit under 150 for a good period of time. it really depends on where dollars go and the biggest question is when the fed will start easing interest rates. this is one of the top questions the market is asking. whether that will happen in june or maybe later in the year given the u.s. economy is still staying quite strong in recent data. paul: mandy wan cohead of aipac cib at wells fargo. coming up an interview with a key player in t

. >> catch us any time on the go, 'rba rhtftt.ast money podcas wee ckig aer this.you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo it's odd how in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. money. intel and advanced micro under pressure today after the financial times reported beijing introduced new guidelines to block u.s. chipmakers and government computers and servers. this as the ceo 'of apple, qualcomm and micron head to beijing to meet the premier. what does this all mean for the chip space i was kind of surprised they allowed u.s. chip at all into their servers, et cetera, but this is the case now so what do you make of it? >> all year long we will see this get ratcheted up, right we will obviously retaliate a little bit and we've been leading the charge a little bit and at some

you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site 'rba rhtft tare.g aerhis. >>> welcome back to "fast money." bitcoin hitting a new record today, briefly passing $69,000, before tumbling more than 7% late in the day. it is the crypto-currency's first new high in over two years. the record marking a comeback in the crypto space, after the collapse of ftx in 2022 increased interest in bitcoin etfs and the upcoming e ing havr havening. >> i was watching this morning, on the "squawk box," there was a whole conversation about -- great show, 6:00 to 9:00, how it could double from here, given its history, given the havening coming up, all these things i don't particularly understand, and i'm saying to myself, and joe said it, as well, he goes, you know, that actually sort of scares me. as it turns out, as they were having that conversation, it's when bitcoin started to turn. if you look at a chart, not that it necessarily matters, this is clearly where we've failed before, understanding we made a new all-time high, but when you see a reversal of that mag ma

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