haidi: you're joining us on rba day. how are you seeing the mood when it comes to clients, customers and the broader economy and how that is impacting your business? >> clearly there is some stress on the economy. that's to be expected, given the interest rate rise, cost-of-living pressures, etc.. so the market is subdued here in australia and new zealand, and we see that with your customers struggling. although the number of customers from an historic point of view is still relatively low. a number of people in our hardship program, it's devastating for those .3%. 79% of our customers are still ahead on their repayments, have paid more than they were required to do and 50% are ahead by more than three months. so there is a markable resilience in the economy, although things are subdued. haidi: with the competition in australia, how vindicated are you by your international strategy? given there were discussions with pension funds, for india, and an update on how procurement is going in the chinese market for anz? >> in a

the risk really is on the downside for the aussie if the rba sounds dovish.a trending higher, looking for direction somewhat. wall street higher with the s&p coming off its best three days since november. optimism that the fed will start cutting interest rates. the kospi up almost 2% and the hong kong dollar unchanged. plenty more had. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. why are we not rethinking this? i am more... i'm more than who i am on paper. after i lost my mom, i lost my way. then i found youth advocate programs, yap behavioral health services. as a little kid, i made some mistakes, but i'm not a mistake. [male narrator] yap gives communities alternatives to residential care, youth incarceration and neighborhood violence. after completing our program nearly 90 percent of participants remain in

pressure when it comes to the rba. a look towards the possibility of easing sooner rather than later. we have expectations when it comes to retail as well as consumer sentiment, looking softer as well. when it comes to how we are setting up for the inflation data in sydney, down by 6/10 of 1%. big drop in treasuries that mostly dominated the u.s. session. u.s. markets and investors came back after the memorial day long weekend. kiwi stocks holding steady, 1/10 of 1% higher ahead of the announcement of the new government budget. the finance minister will be delivering the first budget on thursday. they are posting bigger budget deficits as well as more levels of borrowing. that's one to watch out for when it comes to trading in new zealand. nikkei futures looking tepid at this point. china futures off by about 1 -- 1/10 of 1%. annabelle: you mention those moves that came through in the bond space. that's where we saw most of the action. 10 year yield up eight basis points. u.s. stocks were little change. u.s. futures on

there is some _ the rba today? we expect it to hold. there is some risk _ the rba today? is some risk of _ the rba today? we expect it to hold. there is some risk of ahead, but - on balance i think they will... you might describe it as a tightening bias. basically to warn australians that if we get another bad inflation number like we did in last quarter, we may get another rate hike again.— in last quarter, we may get another rate hike again. keeping that in my, do ou rate hike again. keeping that in my, do you foresee _ rate hike again. keeping that in my, do you foresee any _ rate hike again. keeping that in my, do you foresee any changes - rate hike again. keeping that in my, | do you foresee any changes coming? rate hike again. keeping that in my, l do you foresee any changes coming? i don't see any major changes in terms of growth, but inflation, i think they will revise up. they did revised other inflation numbers three month ago and if every meeting, since then we have seen some higher—than—expected inflation numbers in the last quarter. next year, i think they wi

haidi: you are joining us on rba day.fter 4.25 points of hikes, how are you see in the mood when it comes to clients, customers, and the broader economy, and how is that impacting your business? shayne: clearly there is stress on the economy. that is to be expected, given the interest rate rises, cost-of-living pressures, etc. so the market is subdued, particularly here in australia and new zealand. and we see that. and we see that with more customers struggling. although the number of customers struggling is still, from a historic point of view, relatively low. so we have these hardship programs that people are finding it tough. the number of people in our hardship program is .3% of all of our customers. now, it is devastating for them, but it's .3%. 79% of our customers are still ahead their repayments, so they are paying more than they are required to do. 50% are ahead by more than three months. there is a remarkable resilience still in the economy, although things are subdued. haidi: with competition fears in australi

she says the rba believes which is growth is near its peak. some components of that wage growth is beginning to see softness, but the rba is being very watchable on wages and productivity. really acknowledging the pressure that comes from the cost-of-living crisis. sarah hunter, the assistant governor, saying some australian households are struggling and they will not be an immediate turnaround and household spending. but on the corporate side, lending business investment as a key driver of gdp growth has held up reasonably well. paul: we will be taking a closer look at currencies later. we are watching the aussie dollar as sarah hunter speaks. still to come, the yen's persistent weakness going to be added to expectations of a boj rate hike. national austria bank is going to join us to share the outlook for fx markets later. first, we take a look at what is next for bhp after walking away from its anglo-american ambitions in what could've been the biggest mining deal in a decade. and we are going to leave you now with live pictures from icelan

treasury and rba are not political, so there is a disconnect here.aidi: paul allen, more analysis on the budget with all and katie will be joining us. we will speak with liz taylor. partner sharing their investment strategy as rates might be cap higher for longer. ♪ ♪ >> i do not think is likely that the next move would be a rate hike. it is more likely we will hold the policy rate. the u.s. was notable for the lack of inflation. higher than we expected, these were higher than anyone expected. so what that is told us is we will need to be patient. haidi: jerome powell on the fark against inflation. rounded out by the consumer numbers. let's bring in a senior advisor in sydney. this balance is a challenge, it is front and center. when you look at subsidies for all how much does that complicate the picture? guest: the government has been at pains to work out recessionary impact and they ensure us they are considerate. but the health of the consumer has been dire. cost-of-living has been stressful and we calculate that at 150 billion dollars. that's loo

is that something the rba does not perhaps want to see?f these things have been announced. tax cuts have been legislated. the targeted cost-of-living measures have been flagged on the rba has probably taken it into consideration when they raised inflation forecasts for the near term. most economists think this budget will not be inflationary but the information we received last night $9.3 billion surplus but the outliers have a bigger deficit which means the budget is more stimulatory than last year so that is a concern for the rba and we will hear from them only in june now. haidi: there are only seven countries that hold that including switzerland and singapore how much of a comfort is that to the government and if you look at i guess policy measures in that post-pandemic environment is it sort of you know the lucky country through luck or good planning? >> in the past political climate has been around australia getting books in order and debt and deficit disaster used to be a tagline that the previous government used to use a lot as wel

here in australia we are, still percolating through the mixed messaging from the rba. the take away is that rates will stay where they are. potentially flagging the possibility of a hike is inflation and these data sets don't come into view for what is manageable for the rba. it is taking some of the wind out of the sales of this equity rally. looking at treasury futures and australian bombs, the supply is the main focus when it comes to american markets as well as australian debt markets. a good result for the three year note in the u.s. government debt in the u.s. propelled higher. we are seeing that follow-through in asia as well. the aussie dollar is holding steady at 65.8 six cents. we had a big move in the u.s. dollar in the upside so some weakness is expected across asia and fx. . today brent crude is holding above the $83 level. geopolitical issues continue to weigh on it. trackers are following the tensions across the middle east, the lack of the cease-fire deal over gaza, and a mildly bearish u.s. stockpiles report as well. wti is tracking close to $78 a barr

>> we have got the rba meeting tomorrow.d a nasty inflation surprise out of australia for the first quarter, or core inflation came in higher than anyone inspected on the street. the markets were thinking the rba may be able to cut rates later this year. that inflation print has shrank the market narrative. now the market thanks the next move will be a hike. we have got the swedish central bank meeting later this week. for all the central banks in the region, i think sweden and switzerland have the greatest room to cut policy, and we may well get a rate cut from sweden because the economy is quickly going downhill and inflation is pretty well behaved. tom: potential cut coming through from sweden as we look ahead to the boe, but restricted room for the central bankers of the u.k. ven ram from bloomberg's mliv team. we will bring coverage of that boe rate decision and andrew bailey's news conference this thursday. that's from 12:00 p.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this could not have been scripted better. this report r

they see inflation back to the rba target by the end of the year. rba disagrees. what is your view?ngus: it is very clear the reserve bank has warned the government that these inflationary pressures have not been beaten yet. that is also in the markets. there are still significant inflationary pressures that are unbeaten. and without beating them, the risk is ongoing insistent inflation. that is certainly what we have seen so far. we have the most persistent inflation in the world, according to economists. i think that is a very reasonable perspective to have. sadly, this budget is not beating that. 16% increase in spending in two years. four dollars of spending for every one dollar of savings. we needed to see restraint. we have seen reckless spending in this budget. and we think that is creating a risk of a more extended period of persistent inflation and high interest rates. paul: i have heard some of your commentary say you will be supporting some of that spending when a budget comes to a vote. how do you square that? angus: there are significant parts of it we have a ready disa

so unless you get a severe breakdown of other indicators than the rba looks like being the most hawkishof the central bank at the moment in its stance in that it is definitively on hold for the rest of the year, absent that downturn in inflation. you would argue that you would need to get both poor jobs data and a severe slowdown of inflation in the two q cpi in order for the rba to say, ok, we are going to put everett cut back on the table for 2024 -- we are going to put a rate cut back on the table for 2024. annabelle: we are just discussing breaking news. jp morgan announced last year there would be adding indian government debt into their benchmark e.m. index. that is a milestone for agent's third-largest economy. but we are just getting more details on this. what we are hearing from jp morgan is they are saying that inclusion is on track, and also most of their clients are ready and expecting somewhere between $20 billion to $25 billion of foreign and. so garfield, this inclusion story, there is the potential benefits in the sense that you could see perhaps structurally lower inter

that is going to be a key piece of data for the rba as it heads into the mid june meeting. we are expecting the hawkish hold to be capped, but closely watching the price numbers from today. annabelle: we are trained keenly to any inflation data. we have the preferred u.s. inflation gauge from the fed coming later this week. there is the open we are tracking for japan. the yield gap has been putting downside pressure on the japanese yen, trading north of 157 here. lots of different currency crosses we are having, the pound versus the yen one of the key ones today, giving levels we have not seen in about 16 years. the boe being amongst the g10 countries that could be the last to cut rates, a bit of a laggard there. what else we are tracking is the move so far for equities, fairly steady, quite range bound. u.s. stocks overnight did not really move much. the action more in the bond space. speaking of bonds, you are still seeing the japanese 10 year yield itching higher past 1% mark. quick check on what is happening in korea so far. the action fairly muted, a little bit of down

also getting air -- rba minutes as well as fed minutes. also a big week when it comes to earnings given the heavy discount and geopolitical tensions and the overcapacity claims at play. of course semiconductors will be front and center as we get those nvidia numbers. let's get you to avril hong who is in singapore for the market opens. avril: on those nvidia earnings it is interesting how we are seeing in the options pricing it seems to suggest investors not willing to pay that premium in order to participate in the rally of the marquee stocks. we are seeing potentially that will be a driver this week. on the stock markets it is a bit of a mixed bag. we got some tailwind from last week after u.s. stocks eked out fresh records towards the end of the week. also that added left coming through from chinese authorities as they mold the proposed plans for -- to put a floor under the sector. and as we hear about how the pboc is going to come through with funding for state owned companies that have been tasked with buying up these unsold homes of

but also, australia going into the open, we had our rba signaling it will be a higher-for-longer rate in this economy you will. annabelle: that's right and one of the stories we are tracking is that rents could be the next thing to fall in this inflation battle. at the start of the day, it is that focus on what is happening with the japanese yen, heading closer to the 155 mark. we had governor ueda meeting the

also getting air -- rba minutes as well as fed minutes.omes to earnings given the heavy discount and geopolitical tensions and the overcapacity claims at play. of course semiconductors will be front and center as we get those nvidia numbers. let's get you to avril hong who is in singapore for the market opens. avril: on those nvidia earnings it is interesting how we are seeing in the options pricing it seems to suggest investors not willing to pay that premium in order to participate in the rally of the marquee stocks.

we had interesting commentary when it came to expectations for the rba and where they go next. we had heard from an ex-rba official speaking to bloomberg saying they will only be cutting rates in late 2025. he says they're forecasting ability has taken a hit post-covid it's an interesting read that you can find on your bloomberg. market reaction the aussie dollar at 66.19. in the short term, according to our mliv team, expectations for games on the aussie on the back of expected continued recovery in china and some other factors that could drive the currency higher in the next couple of months or so. also watching brent crude. we had a big week of geopolitical uncertainty for oil but, ultimately, krudys headed for a weekly gain as there is renewed optimism for rate cuts out of the fed, gel data supporting oil gains as well. so we are looking at the third session rate of gains for crude. and look at how treasuries are trading at the moment. this is not too hard, not two quote submission for fed expectations and the data. we have seen pretty good demand when it comes to the most

how do you assess the risk that fiscal policy is going to run the risk of undermining what the rba isrying to do? >> you hit the nail on the head, that's a huge concern for us. we need to see fiscal policy alongside monetary policy and this concerns us. no doubt segments are under pressure because of the high interest rate environment but the reserve bank is trying to cool the economy and if we see meaningful relief than it will push out rate hikes and mean households are under pressure for longer. haidi: the huge role china continues to play, i want to throw out one chart. none of them are pretty in terms of data when it comes to credit and loan demand. borrowing dropping, credit extension dropping. financing contracting for the first time in two decades with weakness in corporate borrowing. how much correlates to what happens with australia's economy and how difficult it will be to shore up growth? >> what we are seeing is a pronounced weakness in households, surprisingly week segment post covid because they have not been a recipient of government support. it is not surprising that

annabelle: that was tracy withers with the rba decision three hours from now and they are watching verylosely with the fed does, run and center for the function, get around about that story and more to get your day going in daybreak. it is available on mobile in the bloomberg app. more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ annabelle: after unparalleled gains, china has been hit by blows including a trade war presenting a unique problem for the president who cannot bank on economic strength. tom has been looking into this for today's big take. tom, that is the crux of the issue because china does not have elections where people can vote. that is not the case in china. you've got income growing. how is that frustration or -- or -- or does lester expressed at all? tom: we frame this in ronald reagan's famous question in 1980, are you better off than you were four years ago. in the u.s., the answer was no and that is why jimmy carter packed his bags and left the white house and ronald reagan became president. now in china, for the last 40 years if you ask chinese people are you better off, the answer

we had the contrast with rba with the minutes that came out yesterday showing they went back to thinking about whether a rate hike might be needed before deciding the best thing to do was stand pat. so far, the rbn has said rate hikes arnold unger needed but they are a long way -- rate hurts our no longer needed but they are long way from saying they will soon be needed, so any steps taken towards that will be watched closely. if they take stronger steps towards that, you can see the kiwi fall, especially with the fed and aussie central-bank comments as a backdrop. annabelle: what else investors will watch for, that nvidia numbers, and that can drive momentum, and what it singles -- signals around ai spending. we are hearing commentary, earnings from palo alto, and that was foreshadowing what could be negativity. >> yes, it is a difficult day for equity investors because this time last earnings cycle, everybody was warning nvidia could not possibly beat expectations. it totally blew everybody away with what it saw going forward. the stakes are perhaps higher now, we have had -- you menti

then we have investors bracing for this hawkish rba. this is what we're seeing. given those expectations of what the reserve bank of australia is going to do and there being no alternative for yen, aussie yen at the highest level since 2013, and this is against backdrop of a resilient dollar. tom? tom: avril, thank you very much indeed. treasuries are under pressure. two key got auctions were met with tepid demand. the pceat the that comes through index friday. mary from our markets live team and we also had the events from neil kashkari. let's start with the tepid demand for the five-year and two-year out of the u.s. is this a oneoff blip or are there broader concerns about resog the issuance from the u.s. treasury? >> i think there is just general concern in terms of how the fed is speaking and the rhetoric coming out from the fed. just adds more invest orangest as to whether treasuries are in fact a good buy at this opponent. but one of the things we do snow that neil kashkari pointed out that rate hikes are not off the table but it was very low. it implies th

you are wondering why, because we got a jobless rate surge, under and that is fueling expectations of rba rate cuts. the hang seng getting a lift from tech stocks as well as chinese lenders. let's flip the board and dig deeper into the sectors we are watching in the asia-pacific. hang seng, tech lifted by tencent after earnings beat alibaba left her a miss. jd.com and baidu also keeping an eye on that. the chinese developers really and focus today. a gauge of them in hong kong, jumping to the highest level since december last year after bloomberg reports that china is mulling a plan that could get local governments to buy unsold homes from distressed developers. this could help address some of the issues related to excess inventory as well as liquidity. we are seeing that gauge jumping today but you can see outliers, we are focusing on the japanese lenders and the automakers. for different reasons. japanese automakers down because of the strengthening yen. today, the banks, there is an addition of a boj rate hike but remember, that could be profitability issue if we don't get those boj ra

that move tracked by australia and we are getting more data from australia later on thursday, and the rba's assistant governor said that there is no quick fix to australia's crisis in housing. both rentals and purchases are facing the worst housing crisis in living memory. let's bring in marc franklin, a senior portfolio and edger for many life investment management. great to have you with us. if you strip away the headline number, the super corn of her still show that there is sticky inflation elements, still kind of the first encouraging sign we have had across consumer inflation in six months. what is the reaction outsized to you? marc: good morning. you have to remember that for the time of january to march, we had three successive months of upside surprises. yesterday's print, which was not event in the course that it was probably in-line, but it really show that inflation moderated, so it is .8% the prior month, and that created welcome relief for markets, and we start to see rate hike going back to two from 1.5. from that point of view, the breaking of the upside surprise trend is no

the take away shows we are likely to see a rate hike from the rba this year. australian stocks extending gains as of the bonds. the aussie sliding toward 66 u.s. sentences. flip the board again. i want to draw your attention to what was the dollar. it has been edging towards 15 five as traders are refocusing on what we are seeing from the yield gap. that is the level we last saw on thursday. we are working on the assumption there were two rounds of intervention last week. we got verbal intervention from the currency chief saying there's no need for intervention of markets behave in an orderly fashion, but that hasn't help the currency. we are keeping a close eye on the earnings season in japan. this week we will hear from the likes of toyota and tokyo electron. we find out just how weak yen is playing into their results. tom: yen back in focus. avril hong in singapore with the markets truck. to the ubs story, posting a big beat, it's on the first quarter net income. this was lender's on net income come in at 1.7 billion dollars, well ahead of the 600 million d

we have seen recently the rba resuming that conversation about rate hikes potentially at its previous may policy meeting before deciding to stand pat. on these balance of risks we are seeing some signs that economic indicators are starting to soften after a string of tightening. let's look at how all of this is feeding through as we look at the futures picture across australia. seeing quite a bit of weakness expected. we have sydney futures down by about 1%. even as of course we have seen the big risk factor of what we saw across markets this week, the nvidia forecast shattering estimates. the ai boom still intact. some of these concerns about the fed minutes showing higher for longer narrative remains very much on hold. we are seeing a bit of a struggle for sentiment today. new zealand looking pretty flat. chicago net -- and nikkei futures. watching the chip related sectors to outperform. china looking weaker as well. annabelle: it really is that focus on nvidia and the performance we are seeing after-hours as well. you can see this climb of around 6%. you mentioned some key takeaway

it had a good day yesterday after cpi's figures beat, putting tightening back of table for the rba.appens in the next meeting in mid june. that it for "daybreak: asia." market coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of the date for hong kong, shanghai and shenzhen. "the china show" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

he told us he is not backing down on his rba legislation, which will split the single board into twooards. about three things we don't know left from the budget. we don't know whether the government will have a second consecutive surplus, although we suspect they probably will. we don't know exactly what the future may will look like. we don't know exactly what the subsidies for households in terms of energy and rent will look like. we covered all of this with the treasurer, who i spoke to on the weekend. >> i think we have to strike a finer balance in this budget between the near term and longer term. also making sure we can provide that cost-of-living relief for people who are doing it really tough at the moment at the same time, as we invest in a future made in australia. it will be a responsible budget ease cost-of-living budget. forecasting inflation at the moment is tricky. it's tricky at the best of times. but what the budget will do is it will put downward pressure on inflation rather than upward pressure on inflation. we have made substantial progress in australia in the fig

historically it is pretty high and we don't see any change from the rba coming soon with inflation remaining australia. that stock is up 10% year-to-date to date and it has been outperforming the asx more broadly. going forward there are three buys, eight holds, and citi moved all of australian banks to sell. macquarie say on the macro backdrop for banks is about as favorable as it gets. could be interesting to see how they do at the open in just a few minutes. annabelle: that was paul allen in sydney. we are getting the meeting minutes coming through from the boj. from march. this is where we saw the boj raising its short-term interest rates to around zero to 0.1%. they have been in place since 2016. what we are getting from the meeting minutes is essentially at least one member was saying they should begin normalization. the question is when we are going to see future boj rate hikes. they are also saying they will be responding to the economic additions as well. boj members say financial conditions should state easy but that are still uncertainties regarding the fed direction and that has

the rba made the point of this week, the rbnz that, even the fed minutes came in slightly hawkish.l has a different reaction function here to try to cut rates, but there is no justification to be talking about rate cuts. financial conditions in the u.s. are extraordinarily easy, growth is strong, the stock market and labor market is strong. it is bonkers to be talking about easing at the moment, unless you see some crisis in the horizon. it isn't obvious, it may be one will come at some point. but it is not just unwinding bets on rate cuts. i think the idea of will stay on the radar until we see the growth roll over in the u.s. the fed is one of the most important components. but the fact is that inflation around the world is sticky. that makes sense. we lost control of inflation a few years ago because excessive monetary stimulus and excessive easy monetary policy. you don't get control of it until you severely curb demand, that is what economic history teaches you. that severe curbing of demand is essentially a recession. so until growth rolls over, the central bank will not be a

we have seen a rally in recent days over optimism over rba policy. we had a similar picture from the banks and cba. of course when it comes to the trading update we have not heard similar return to shareholder value story but that does not mean that is entirely ruled out. that is a stop to watch as we get into the start of trading. citi saying sell australian bancshares and to buy niers on the dips. citi sees an opportunity to rotate into the sector and away from the strong performing banks. that is one to watch. also watching in terms of australia backing a $47 billion gas sector transition. also watching for some nat gas names, potentially seeing a reaction today. aussie dollar at .6574. we had so much focus when it comes to the yen but the dollar focus has been a little bit higher given the string of fed speak we have had this week as well. taking a look at how bonds are trading we are seeing asian bonds falling. echoing selling pressure we saw across treasuries, supporting the dollar. you are still seeing that picture across trading and treasurie

getting tenant credit and export cpi's from southeast asia and of course here in australia, we have the rba decision as well as a central-bank decision out of malaysia as well. take a look because we still have some close markets to contend with. a thin session across some parts. japan closed today and we are seeing market closures and south korea as well as thailand. annabelle: just taking a look at how u.s. futures are coming online this morning, you still got some modest gains coming through which follows of course what we had on friday. biggest advance for u.s. equities going back to february. we saw yield tumbling, a softer dollar. apple's earnings post results rally played into it but that focus very much coming down to the jobs numbers which were a lot softer than had been expected or predicted by economists so take a look at the terminal chart and we can put into more context nonfarm payrolls come up around 175,000 over the course of april. the estimate had been for 240 thousand so a very big gap there. and wages growth, another really important component, that slowed. the bulls do

conversations where the rba needs to include forex intervention is a direct tool.o you think they should? prof. rajan: the r.b.i. has always used forex intervention to reduce volatility, but not to establish a level for the exchange rate. i think it should continue doing that. i presume it will continue doing that. the level is established by so many other things. but for the r.b.i. to try to fix that level i think is very dangerous. david: and we don't want to go down that path. raghuram rajan, former r.b.i. governor and chicago professor, thank you for your time back to you in the studio. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all un

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[laughter] david is using canada, i've used the rba as an example.as the pinnacle of hubris. you rarely see 2.0% for any time. a range is the right way of thinking. david: it caused tremendous problems last decades because they kept rates too low for too long as they were trying to get inflation to 2% that fueled a lot of asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. anyone who took the university of michigan survey was listing to this and saying "what are they talking about, we are in goldilocks land, it'll be a great economy, we can sustain this. jay powell is great." where is the disconnect? tom: it is an important idea. i think about my parents who do not have the foggiest idea what i do for a living despite me trying to explain it. when i tell them inflation is improving, my father loves to say what the hell are you talking about? i am still paying more first off. that is the disconnect. we look at the percent change in price level terms. in price level terms it is elevated and that is a problem from a consumption perspective because a lot of these thi