let's get back to peter schaffrik from rbc.er, i do not know if there were two any expectations about some kind of joint bond issuance, that actually germany was still not behind. peter: well, we have seen this movie. every time there is stress in the sovereign market a particular, the call is to issue joint bonds, and every time, predictably, the germans, the dutch, the austrians say, "no thank you." the question is for the european finance ministers to come up with a solution, but we know what the solutions are, to come up with something entirely fresh. i am wondering if the outcome is going to be any different this time around. francine: ok, what does it mean going forward? will the eu have a strong enough response to pick up markets, or is the ecb doing enough? peter: well, i think the ready wrapon of a response is to their hands around, and when you look at the press release that merkel, for instance, put out yesterday, she said this is the preferred vehicle that the germans want, and i suppose the austrians, too. you go t

hi, brian as we are doing the social distancing and working from home to try to flatten the curb, rbc's team led by canon mckay did some modeling looking at what we can learn from china, italy and other places and we've gotten some of the graphs re-created here for you so the red line here are the total cases in china and the blue line are the global cases which clearly are now accelerating as china has managed to flatten its curve. if you look at the beginning of the graph you'll see where china implemented the lockdowns in wuhan and hubei province they estimated it was about 25 days from that lockdown and the quarantine until they started to see new case numbers start to slow down and they do point out

joining me is lori calvasina, rbc capital markets head of u.s.. 1725, do youto still feel this way 24 hours later? ori: one thing about this market is we've held above the 2300 mark, within the average of the peak to trough mark. right now, the market is still telling us it is pricing in recession and nothing works. if you break below that 2300, we think you could make a beeline for the 1725 mark. what i think the message from the market would be is expecting something more onerous than recession. that is a critical thing we are watching right now. alix: part of that is also going to depend on what happens with yields. have we seen the bottom in the 10 year? >> it is hard to say. the movement higher in yields recently has taken markets quite by surprise. is part of the problem, and not a good sign at all. effectively, what we think is taking place is that credit and money markets, for example, commercial paper, the revo markets have gotten fixed to a large degree recently, but still, many of the money market instruments are still under stress. th

>> hi, kelly we showed you the graphs yesterday with rbc's modeling in the u.s.ased on the numbers they saw in china and italy creating kind of an algorithm of what they expect to happen here in the u.s. and with case numbers here rising so quickly, now to more than 15,000, and what rbc and others are saying, they're seeing an uptick in hospitalizations due to influenza-like illness in new york city, suggesting that there could be an exponential growth in severe covid-19 cases requiring hospitalization and updated the chart. now the base case scenario has become that and this is the orange line to be looking at the dotted line where we were yesterday and the day before the orange line, solid line, where we are now they're seeing because of the surge in cases to see ic u capacity stressed by next week and seeing in the hospitalizations that's not due to flu that is what's really concerning people about the hospital's capacity right now. >> not only the coronavirus curve worse than we thought and we can show that graphic again but people showing up for other flu-li

what we're trying to do now as we look at the numbers on when things get really bad, that is where rbcing at italy. they have graphed the mortal iterate in italy versus the patients there getting intensive care the blue line is the mortal iterate and the intensive care percentage is the red line when the number of cases gets high enough that puts such a pressure on the intensive care unit and when that gets to be 10% and fewer of patients because there are so many overwhelming the intensive care unit and that is when you see the mortality rate spike what does this mean for the united states? if they take those numbers and algorithms and we take a number on icu beds and the capacity we have in this country they model in the base case scenario which is the orange line here. you can start to see the stream in the beginning of april and that's if we take even stronger measures than we are right now in terms of social distancing, guys. >> an interesting and important look there, meg tirel, properly social distancing. >> carl bass called the subprime crisis in 200 1k37 now he has more reason

rbc's helima kroft was where it happened and she joins us now by phone. helima, i can't believe i missed the meeting, but i'm glad you were there what the heck happened >> i think what happened essentially is the russians said no deal. the saudis were looking at a 1.5 million barrelper day production cut that requires the russians to kick in an extra 300,000 barrels and the russians have not been fully complying with their previous opec commitment they were not going to give up any additional barrels and the saudis said if you're not going play ball we're going home and the russian oil minister leaves the building and essentially says from april 1 every proxima producer could do whatever they wanted and that's what the markets have to be worried about being flooded with oil. >> you are there watching this, and who drove the split? it's not you, it's me. i really do think that everybody was expecting the russians to give in at the end this is what's been happening since 2016 the russians always say it's going to be difficult, always say they may not do it

rbc's mark mahaney joins us now. we heard from david tepper this week he's buying some of the big cap tech names what do you think people should be nibbling on here? >> i think there are few defensive names in large cap internet looking for them, i think they are netflix, amazon, akimi, spotify, down cap even chewy every other company that we cover is going to see -- has already seen material earnings cuts and revenue cuts and i would expect more to come. >> yeah. that said, as worse as it gets, you know, you wonder if it's overdone and on that point maybe both uber and lyft are in that territory. how would you kind of find bottom for those companies and how do you start thinking about the rebound? >> oh, i think there's some very interesting places, stocks that are -- i think are oversold. now when they start basing out is when the estimates base out we've seen contractions in demad demand for uber and lyft greater than we thought and it's a moving target within the space of three days last year, the company saw dem

tom: lori calvasina with rbc capital markets.w off west, 43.01, almost got to a 40 to a 42 handle in some of the shock. oil a little discrete from yen and gold. on the open, discrete conversation, jon ferro. stay with us, this is jobs day. this is bloomberg. ♪ -77, let's do a data check. jon ferro and lisa abramowicz will do that as well. -574.tures down we have been worser. oil, south, south. weighn cannot get down to 104. -- two a 104. quick, that is the u.s. yield structure up top and catching up slowly but nevertheless, greater negative yields in germany. guy: what is worth paying attention to his spread widening on the periphery in europe. germany negative four basis points today, greece plus 13. italy is up nearly for basis points. you are seeing a big move today and it includes france which is worth paying attention to. tradingx 600, we are 367. 365 was the loafer last year. the indian rupee record lows against the dollar. em: one of my major focuses, is off the radar, but we are seeing em dynamics away from turkey and ita

but much lower than the 80.cky coming up on bloomberg day break america, conversation with laurie, rbc capital markets. this is bloomberg. beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. francine: this is bloomberg. we have all of your market covered. we have a lot more things coming up. great exclusive interviews. for example, the spanish economy minister. now let's get straight to bloomberg. first with you in new york city with viviana. >> we begin with the highest death toll. it's in italy. that country surpassing china's numbers. fatalities now topping 3,400. nationwide lockdown continues. urope remaining the epicenter of the disease. rise. reporting a 41% now to president donald trump wading into the oil price war russia. saudi arabia and t

tom: what is interesting about marketstle, rbc capital wrote an essay about the tensions trying to getck to the table, and it does not seem to be successful so far. the other thing we are looking at is the labor economy in america. trying to gain out those james bullard numbers, 25 percent, 30% unemployment, michael mckee speaking with dr. bullard yesterday in st. louis. francine: it was a good interview, and a number of things we went through. treasuries advancing, dollar climbing for a second day. wti rising after a three-day slump. yen, we had a couple of movement from boj, yen sinking at the end of the fiscal year adjustment. tom: a timely conversation, mohamed younis will join us from gallup to look at the mood of america in this terrific crisis. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you expect and way more. that's xfinity xfi. get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. and now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device that's connected is protected. that's a $72 a yea

rbc predicts a 16% drop in global car production this year.nwhile, china's auto industry is also hurting. because of that, some governments may relax emission standards. chinese auto sales have been slumping for a couple of years. last month, they had the biggest plunge on record, down by about 80%. all of that wrapping into what happens if you have a global shutdown because of this virus. how bad is it going to get in the transportation sector? the latest read coming from air china, that february air traffic is down almost 81%. how quickly that will wind up picking up is definitely a big risk, especially as europe shuts its borders and the u.s. starts to shut down as well, and now south america is shutting its borders as well, all of that creating uncertainty in the markets. coming up, volatility reigns supreme. we will have more on what to do in this environment with anna han, wells fargo securities equity strategist, plus mark head ofbank of america u.s. rates strategy. a massive move we are seeing in the bond market. year.sis points in the

tom porcelli at rbc said you could have a tax moratorium for a bit to give some relief, for example.think there will be the possibility of loans to companies that are hurting, may just flat out aid to companies. there may even be talk about lifting tariffs temporarily. that would be a big story for china. alix: would that matter to the markets? stuart: i think it would. focusing on liquidity provisions in china in particular would help markets. some form of corporate tax cut would probably help the markets as well. trump as a candidate, even though he has done the tariff stuff, there's something of a trump put on the markets. any and all of these things can help come up with the question ultimately goes back to is this a global pandemic where we are shutting down u.s. cities because of coronavirus, or something that looks more like the flu? if it is a global pandemic where we are shutting down cities, the tax break for corporates isn't really going to help the markets very much. if it is something more minor and you get a policy and tax response, then you are adding a ton of stimulus

alix: thank, lori calvasina of rbc capital markets.e hour in new york is mike swell, goldman sachs asset management cohead of global fixed income per fully management, and from harvard kennedy school, megan greene. what do you tell your clients today? mike: i think people have to separate the personal from their professional and investment portfolio. this is taking a massive toll on everyone, but i think when you think about your portfolio, you have to look out three to five years. we are telling investors that you have to look at your portfolio and make sure you have the right asset allocation, and then rebalance, number one. number two, be calm. really need to try to separate the near term from the longer term as an investor. when we think about fixed income investing, we are in general investment funds, retirees, and we are trying to get people to be relatively calm. in the event that they are not overly invested in risk assets, start to take a look at opportunities. alix: where? mike: the credit markets and the mortgage market are

hospitality industry, in terms of airlines or cruisers or hotels, or even the energy industry, which is rbc going through its own pain this week, that is small in the context of our portfolio. after 2008 the banks have had to put a lot of capital aside to make sure they are prepared for downturns that could come out of things at this. i think that is really what a lot of things -- people .2 when they say this is not 2008. --are coming consumer confidence is where we can shore up the edges. companies talking about drawing down their entire credit lines. that is something the banks will have to deal with and think through. when they say this is not 2008, that is entirely them talking from a capital perspective. emily: jenny surane in new york. we are waiting for the president to speak to the american public at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. expecting some detail on measures to stimulate the economy. more on bloomberg next. ♪ emily: welcome back to our special market coverage. as the coronavirus continues to spread, hackers are trying to seize the moment. cybersecurity firms have reported surges in p

you had rbc saying google, facebook, top calls for the year on ad spending. it was an election year, the olympics, it was all going to be a huge advertising year. as we know, the olympics were delayed. facebook coming out and saying they are seeing a big uptick in usage of whatsapp. the demand for news is there, yet it is not translating into ad sales. the first thing you cut when things are tough is discretionary spending, so firms are starting to pull back on some of that advertising revenue. that is why you're getting at uptick in usage, but it is not translating into sales. i wouldn't be shocked if we got a lot of analysts revising after the olympics are delayed, what that means for some of the revenue. david: thank you so much to taylor riggs for that report on the markets. the coronavirus crisis has brought a whole new meaning and importance to working from home, provides so much of the backbone for that work. robbins,e now chuck chairman and ceo of cisco. let's start with that issue. cisco is so integral through your webex platform and things like that

let's make this a broader conversation and talk about internet and bring in rbc's mark mahaney, who i believe -- i'm not sure if you're joining us via skype or phone, looks like via phone. good to have you you put out a note you're taking down your estimates of facebook of cour , google, pin industries, this v, i'm sure you mean the v-shaped recovery might go lower than you thought what are you seeing? >> the third time in three weeks we did this. we did this going into last weekend and there was three major material data points that came out last week first, twitter essentially prereleased and talked about march month trends down, implied down 10, 20% and then facebook puts out this blog for the first time ever that i've tracked the company talking about weakness in ad revenue. i've never seen them talk about that and third, one of the biggest internet advertisers out there, booking.com, known as priceline, talks about publicly dramatically curtailing its marketing spend. things got worse interest our perspective. for the third time we cut numbers on the advertising names. i think if

we wanted to update you on the rbc day that this is a new chart. the dotted origin line was their previous base case scenario for when we could start to see overd they've moved that to the solid orange line, meaning that could happen as soon as next week. in some parts of the country because the case numbers appear to be rising so quickly, guys. now these measures that we're seeing in new york, california and other place, health experts say should help, but it will be some time before we see that bear out back over to you >> meg, thank you so much for that we've got 53 minutes left of the session. we're down 3% on the s&p 500 now restaurants have been hit hard by the coronavirus. though many are making changes to keep their doors open for drive through, pick up and delivery customers let's bring in carl along with the mcdonald's ceo who his first interview in fact since taking the helm over to you. >> thank you very much chris, thank you for your time we appreciate it so much. >> thank you, carl thanks for having me on. >> let's start with north am

cases now surpassing 15,000 we showed you some graphs yesterday looking at modelling done by rbc about when the u.s. intensive care capacity could really start to be strained. originally they were look at that dotted orange line that showed the capacity could start to be strained in early april when u.s. cases hit around 30,000 now just looking at the growth and the numbers there they seeing, look at the orange solid line that's what they are currently modelling saying that icu capacities could start seeing real strain next week. we are starting to hear about this the concerns about supplies, available beds this is real concern that we're hearing from people who are looking at these numbers which are rising because of inkreets creasing testing capacity but the disease is around in large numbers. tyler and kelly. >> is there a way to separate what you just nailed there, meg, and that is the idea that now a week ago we didn't know what we didn't know. now we know more about what the level of infection is. is there a way to separate that so you can say, this -- we're seeing more because w

right now, the situation is exacerbated i rbc the impact on markets of the coronavirus -- by the impact on markets from the coronavirus. for thanks to tom finke helping us sort through this historic day. i want to bring you another headline. withdrawing prior annual guidance on the coronavirus impact. i do not think that is particularly surprising. i just think we are going to see more and more and more of these withdrawing of any guidance they had been contributing to a sense of uncertainty. people talk about valuations, how can we possibly value a company right now. scarlet: the p is going down and the e is a big question mark right now. joe: let's go back to taylor riggs who has a look at the impact on companies. taylor: i want to show you a great chart we have. a percent day change. a map of which countries are reporting the most increase in cases. as we know earlier this week, italy bearing the brunt of that. france shut down schools today. we come on over to the u.s., percent change still relatively low. but california and new york closing major events. new york closing broadway.

matt: rbc capital markets has taken its first step at account its first stocks.at lori kasatkina says, it's a flat and last year. aty're expecting it to end 2.79. gloom. doom and she does it say she's watching for capitulation, a necessary though not sufficient bottom. are we there yet? matt: annmarie hordern with your morning call. coming up, your market open. futures pointing higher after the biggest wall street drop since 1987, after global markets tumbled into a bear market. we're seeing a little bit of what must be described as a dead cat bounce in futures, putting to again, ftse almost 5%. anna: with her decease above the skins and market, with other ftse down more than 10%, the cac and that dax more than 12%. we are seeing selling interest rates at this point. it is that a comfort or not? we will talk more about that in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet. it's more than just fast. it keeps all your devices running smoothly. with built-in security that protects your kids... ...no matter what they're up to. it protects your info... ...and g

it has been down more than 1,000 rbc's mark and jeff join us now.rning, guys >> good morning. >> good morning. >> so i'd like to start, mark, with what you do with the many calls that you've made already given this new environment that we're in affected by the coronavirus and covid-19 we can talk netflix, expedia, two different stocks in terms of how they're being affected but perhaps illustrative of how investors need to look at their portfolios and how things could be affected. let's look at netflix, you say it's not recession proof but you believe it's resistant why? >> so in the internet space, consumer internet space, ke extremes, the companies with the greatest exposures, troubles with their business models and the virus and recession, would be the travel companies, booking, expedia, and at the other end of the spectrum, i would say are the high value kind of safe options entertainment options. and netflix would be at the top of that list you've seen that in the way the stock has traded it's outperformed almost every other s&p 500 stocks in th

if any headlines are made or if m mnuchin takes the podium we'll jump back in rbc capital markets and lisa shalett, was monday the bottom for the stock market >> we'll have to see but i think there's a good chance it probably wasn't. what we know about bottoms is they do take time. i think where we're pricing, what we're pricing now in the market, is consistent with recession pricing. on friday we dipped slightly below the 2,300 mark the market was starting to tell us that something more onerous than ordinary recession was at hand i think that possibility is still out there. we really don't know what's going to happen in terms of the path of this virus i think that's really the most important thing for markets right now. >> lisa, what do you think >> i don't think we're ready to declare a bottom either. but i guess where we might differ is, you know, we are pretty constructive on the amount of firepower that is being thrown at this problem if you think about what the fed has done under the guise of whatever it takes, it is highly likely we're going to see a fed balance sheet that is a

back to you. >>> deirdre, thank you let's bring in lori, rbc capital head of u.s. equity strategy, joining us on the phone. good morning lori, let me start with you. i think we peaked around february 19th or so. it's been a rather dramatic fall since then what are you expecting when it comes to the fears of a recession and what it will do in terms of earnings and how your model responds from there. >> sure. thank you for having me on, everyone just in terms of our forecast, we actually cut our number to 139 for 2020 epf today that's a decline of 16%. we updated our macro assumptions. what was interesting to me about the output is that at the end of the day, it was in line with the median drop that we've seen in s&p 500 earnings if you look at all the years dating back to 1990 that were affected by recessions we think that's a good starting point. we know it's difficult to forecast exactly what's going to happen right now but we think it's worth considering that we at least have that kind of impact the reason why is we're trying to listen to the market here the mark

there's a note by rbc capital today. i never thought i would see this taking exxonmobil from hold to sell, this is a company not set up for the lower oil prices. those of us who know exxon from the days of rex tillerson would find this unbelievable that we have to focus on exxon as a company to worry about they need oil higher than 30 they don't have it i think that oil could go to 20. so i'm saying when you see a company as fine as exxon being downgraded to sell, you have to be careful of that group a lot of that group has very high yields. i think a lot of people are looking for yield. i'm urging you to look for yield away from oil. do not trust the oil do not buy them. >> i wanted to ask you, jim, about the saudis today aramco's ceo assessing, as we know by now, their ability to raise capacity to 13 million barrels a day. we can sustain low prices for a long time. do they sense vulnerability? >> yes, they do. look, they're not our friends. the russians are not our friends. it's every person for itself in the oil busin

. >>> let's turn back to the drop in stocks, specifically those in tech rbc mark and chris join us now good morning to you. i'll start with you, specifically apple, we have spent the better part of this year talking about the china impact as we saw coronavirus affect that country on apple where that country is concerned. but now that you have retail stores there opening back up, retail stores in the rest of the world for apple closing, what does that impact look like >> morgan, thanks for having me and it's a very good question. i would say a month ago, you know, when this whole thing started and apple preannouncing on presidents' day, largely china and more importantly on the supply chain, and what you have seen over the last one month is the supply chain in china is coming up to speed, about 50% compared to 25 a month ago and they're trending toward getting to 90 to 100 by the end of the month which is a positive now the focus shifts to demand and like you rightly pointed out, you know, with the supply chain last month was demand in china and now it's slowly climbing to demand in the

two facts, it would be, i think, derelict for the federal reserve which has the ability to do so >> rbc says the fed spooked the market that the bottom, in her words, is not in >> how is that possible? >> i disagree with the fed's involvement -- >> i think it did. i think when you came out -- >> what are you spooked by first of all, we know the fed has no additional information. we also know that powell got up there and he spoke the truth he said just what scott said which is that the monetary policy is not the cure is it they want the fed chairman to -- >> so we were talking before the show started when you said that you think the virus maybe takes gdp down about 60 bips >> that's the estimate from our fed survey the average estimate this year >> was that before the fed cut >> no it was after we did a flash survey yesterday. fresh results. >> what was your estimate? what was your estimate on the impact that that 50 bip cut is going to do to gdp versus where you were before yesterday? >> i don't have one. >> do you think it would be meaningful >> it could. i think it was -- mr. najarian

this week, rbc announced qe. there are support measures coming through from central banks.hink they have learned from the global financial crisis to be really quick out of the gate to support markets. we cannot really judge the success of the reaction. purity looking at equity indices. cansuccess is whether we ring fence financial systems, make sure there is no contagion of a no stress developing. at this point, it still looks as if they are on the ball to prevent broader financial stress. the longer the recession, obviously, the order that will be. --the harder that will be. haslinda: there is a credit crunch. that is why the dollar is up to the moon. where do we go from here? fred: that is right. there is signs of dollar shortages. especially if you look at cross trading against the dollar in recent dates. the first two, weeks of the spreading of the epidemic, you have reasonably range bound exchange rates. now the exchange rates are really catching up to what happened in other markets. ultimately, that will run its course. early for bit too stabilization. volatile tradin

i used the word recession, one note came out from rbc markets, used averages from most recent peak toottom, usually 24% to 32% drop. right now we're seeing 28% drop on s&p 500 from the most recent highs. so the concern is that the economic uncertainty, the economic impact is going to continue, hence we're seeing a sell off despite the fact that federal reserve put forward monetary policies. i would like to point out the mood here. everybody is really, really calm. i've never seen it this quiet in all the 2 1/2 years i've been working for fox business. the traders are not as many here, but still crowded and they said they're not planning on closing anytime soon, stu. back to you. stuart: we'll see. kristina, thank you very much indeed. here to break down what we may see, let's break down the market basically. let's bring in phil blancato and rebecca waltzer. rebecca, let me go to you first. throughout the day i've been asking market watchers where is the bottom? was today's catalytic selling the bottom? none ever them said that is the bottom. what do you say? >> i think that's right, s

rbc said a rate cut would set a dangerous precedent and the only action is what the s&p is doing. does this reinforce that view? >> i think it might. there's always been some level where the federal reserve begins to be concerned about the economic effects of a downturn in the stock market. it may look and appear like it's reacting to the absolute decline, but what they will tell you, whether or not this is real or not, i have no reason to doubt them, is that what they're ultimately concerned about is a downdraft in the stock market creates possibility of systemic risk in the system, a serious downdraft, i mean, and economic effects all of its own, either through the wealth effect or through really what the most important thing, what they call the tightening of financial conditions equities are another way of raising money like a bond or debt is, and the lower stock prices go, the more expensive it is to raise money through equity, and that's a tightening of financial conditions that the federal reserve might want to counterbalance i don't think the first thousand mattered or the

rbc capital markets says the infection is affecting the auto industry.ch as 50% in the u.s. ford has assured investors it will maintain its dividend. says the virus will prove too much of a burden. haslinda: markets in melbourne. we are seeing the biggest decline since black monday. indonesia down. indonesia announcing tax breaks for 19 sectors. someenact import taxes on goods. those details are coming fast and furious. circuit breakers triggering left or right and center. losses seem to be mounting. in japan, the nikkei extending losses. kyoto reporting the government holding an emergency meeting on the stock exchange. the be ok discussing the need for a special meeting. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: friday the 13th. not looking good. the sti down 11%. in the middle of the trading day, so far this week, the sti down 15%. there is a beneficiary. the exchange is benefiting from the frenzied buying and selling of assets. the sti down i more than 5%. let's get to the first word headlines in new york. reservesore made tap to alleviate the cris

if they are going to avoid canceling, rbc they can postpone this, or even banning spectators.t in person fans, it's becoming more of a diminishing source of revenue. ticket sales are about 12% of the budget right now. can they still go on without fans? again, we've never had it. it's hard to think that the tv product is going to be good with empty stands. we've seen this in a few matches the last two weeks. but again, remember, in the u.s., a number of players in the nba and other leaks have tested positive -- leagues have tested positive. so it's no longer just having spectators be banned. the players themselves, the participants, are no longer able to participate. and with that, essentially, you can't have games or competitions. could this mean the end of sports, as we know it, marcus? i mean, some say the disruption in the supply chain, so to speak, could be permanent. marcus: i sure don't look so. -- hope so. i think humanity has always recovered. if this is a six-month thing or a 12 month thing, things will be different. i think it will have impact on delivery over-the-to

economics taps, steps, maria,mic in terms of actual action to help these quickly failing businesses, what rbca: as i mentioned, and one itmicron threw everything at yesterday, but we have not heard anything from germany. italy is saying they want to put 25 billion euros on the table. doing.y are with big corporate problems i should point out on italia. -- they are dealing with big corporate problems we had i .hould point out alitalia the point is we are going to see perhaps a very deep recession. that is what we hear from business lobbies in italy. you look at spain, the curve of coronavirus cases has really taken off the last few days. we have not heard a single economic measure. we had the meeting yesterday that went on for hours, but the statement was disappointing. you did see finance ministers say they would do whatever it takes to protect the european economy, but there were no specific steps, not what the market was hoping for. anna: yeah, and how much do we read into those words these days, maria. he conversation at least in mnuchin, about cash handouts could start being something tha

coming up in the next hour, lori calvasina, rbc capital head of u.s. investment strategy.ak." is making a high-stakes gamble on the 737 max. it has gone in a hiring spree to make sure it has enough workers in place when it resumes production. about 700 and 30 have been hired -- about 730 have been hired. it plans to restart the factory and a couple of months. the company hopes regulators will lift to the grounding order on the plane by midyear. activist investor elliot management wants twitter to have a full-time ceo. bloomberg has learned the hedge fund has taken a billion dollars state in the company and nominated more directors. they are concerned jack dorsey splits his time between twitter and square. the two sides met on friday. dorsey did not take part. harley davidson needs to find a new ceo. the chief executive unexpectedly stepped down on friday. he parted ways with the board after 26 year career at the motorcycle maker. during his five years as ceo, harley lost half its market value. . am ritika gupta that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: time for bottom l

that is the warning from rbc capital markets.andemic is threatening car sales around the world. the $2.4 billion cost dividend will be too much of a burden. spending starbucks is $130 million on his first coffee roasting facility in the country. in february, starbucks cu shutting down stores because of the viral outbreak. almost all are open. time for bottom line when we look at three companies worth watching this morning. first, we look at caterpillar. >> they are reporting their weakest sales since 2016. most of that is in the asia-pacific region when i saw a 17% drop off and did see some thatess in oil and gas bid was before we got the crazy news of the week the coronavirus in oil prices. they have not updated guidance at this point, but they say they are going to stay in the market for buybacks. opportunistic tone. they see opportunity in their stocks and are looking to go longer-term. you see the selloff, the companies that might be ok? the house and the have-nots. roche has a coronavirus test that is 10 times faster is the

lori calvasina of rbc said it is like a 2008 playbook, like we are finding a broader bottom here, butll see much more downside before upside. so how do you handle that? how do you protect yourself? dean: if you are looking for cheap options, those came and went over the last month. it is just impossible to find insurance that doesn't reflect the degree of uncertainty on a forward-looking basis, and the fact that the s&p is delivering so much volatility on a daily basis. so you're left with some trade-offs. i try to focus on implementing options in a cost-efficient way. so what can you do? if you are looking for protection, i think you are bound to wind up with some version of a spread, whether it is a put spread on the s&p -- even that is going to be costly. you might think about selling a call spread to fund a put spread. there is some efficacy with a strategy like that. one of my favorites, and this gets back to the notion that even though i think we have seen a high in the vix, i think it is going to be up here north of 30 for an extended period of time. vix andsell puts on the get

is why an estimate out today in terms of what we might see for march sales, and this is according to rbce estimating sales could be down between 40% and 50%. other analysts are saying we're thinking in that range too these are just guesses at this point. the 2020 full-year sale, many believe they'll be down anywhere from 15% to 20%. that's why when you take a look at the auto stocks, the thing to keep in mind is these guys will be under pressure here not just for march but also going into the first quarter. also, bmw, this may be the last auto plant still running in the united states, the one where they biuilt more than 400,000 vehicles in spartans burg, south carolina they'll close it for at least two weeks. the pant closures are expected to continue until early april. we heard from ford yesterday we have yet to hear from gm and chrysler, fiat, but increasingly when you talk a with suppliers and people in the aw they're expecting plant closures to continue at least into the first week of april. one last note, moody's out with a note on several of the automakers saying they're reviewing

check out these charts interest rbc. this is looking at global total cases versus china's cases china being in the red there and what it shows is when the lockdowns began in china in wuhan and then in the greater province, it was 25 days later from the quarantines being put in place that we started to see the flattening of the curve. that, of course, is what everybody is talking about and trying to slow the new infections now if you look to italy, some disturbi disturbing statistics coming out of italy they match that compared with the percentage of patient that's got untensive care as they found more patients being diagnosed with the disease, more patients overwhelming the icus there. that mortality rate in the blue started to spike you can really see that inverse correlation which makes sense. now if you look to the united states, they're taking all that data and trying to punch in the numbers of the u.s. icu capacity and how fast the disease is spreading here they modelled four different scenarios of how stringent the

. >> pepsico keeps getting upgraded two upgrades today morgan stanley and rbc as a defensive play we staples i wonder how much today is about the fact that congress cannot get agreement? i know secretary mnuchin spoke optimistic when he spoke to you about getting something done today, but elizabeth warren is saying it's a slush fund for the treasury how are they going to come together >> they need 60. there are people who cannot come together when i listen to it, look, i know they're all going to be -- i'm not a legislator, but the emphasis over and over again from secretary mnuchin was the worker, the worker, the fed taking care of a lot of the big credit issues. i feel like that if everyone were in the room where there's negotiation, i think the worker is taking precedence on both sides. that's why a nancy pelosi, i can't possibly imagine why she wouldn't say the worker comes out on top let's get this done and then look at it later david? >> you know, jim -- >> i want -- >> i'm sorry >> go ahead, david >> i want to turn to kelly and get her take on things as well given your focus t

from home a look at where some of the safe havens might be at stay at home stocks the lead analyst at rbcapital markets. i guess i'll start off by saying it gives tail wind to certain types of internet stocks. >> good morning, mike. i hope not but to the extent that there's assets out there in the internet space that would benefit from people cocooning and staying in for entertainment there's a couple of names that come to mind the most obvious is netflix. i also think that social media stocks like facebook that would be a form of communication connection a little bit of entertainment and information would be an obvious beneficiary. maybe twitter as a news service and maybe a snapchat and maybe a music name like a spotify. all of those would fall into that beneficiary camp. >> netflix has held up it's essentially retained it's value through the whole sell off and as somebody that covers it, what you really think is this would be a driver of incremental new subscriptions or people saying i'm buying something that's not going to be disadvantaged by what's going on. >> i think it's probably

on but i'd like to talk about the app downloads are up 183% month to date and this is according to rbc capital markets who just got a note coming from them. zoom, bright spot. rights do, that's what you wanted. up almost over 2%. it's been climbing very high over the last while. one anecdotal note that we know you like to hear about, i spoke with a few investment bankers and it seems like what that banking community is doing is telling some of their employees, half the office to stay in the office, half the office to stay home. they're not allowed to cross contaminate. even though they don't have the coronavirus they want to make sure because one person in the office gets it they expect the entire thing to spread and then you have everyone at home that still safe. that's the thinking going on in new york city. you got it. stuart: thank you very much. more from our friend at the chinese foreign ministry who tweeted this, make public your data. u.s. owes us an explanation. any response? >> has china made public their information and data? they say they have. no one in the world believes

deployed to new york city to help governor cuomo in case he wants facilities renovated that can be used rbctreat patients into hospital ships are on the move and i think seattle and new york city, and if the national guard resources are expended, we have significant active-duty resources. the united states military troubles all over the world and to help all other people have major disaster problems and if those resources are needed in the united states to assist, then certainly the department of defense stands ready to do that. stuart: will they have to have the role change in no longer be army rangers of 101st airborne and they become national guard people. would you have to do that? >> no, we deployed 40 - 50000 active-duty troops down to hurricane andrew in the '90s, we deployed tens of thousands of them during hurricane katrina, they stayed at the 82nd airborne and stated who they are but they become a label force largely to assist others. stuart: can you keep them safe? >> if they are distributing food or building houses in hospitals and what have you or administering test of some sor