hawkish stance out of the rbnz. reporter bloomberg learning the united states: has given an advisory for traveling. sources say that could impede beijing's ability to gain data. we are told the -- democrats have reached an agreement on a $3.5 trillion spending and tax plan. president biden's jobs and families initiative without republican support. senator schumer says it is part of a two track process by which they will consider a 579 million -- billion dollar intern -- infrastructure bill. an economic rebound in singapore. this is weeks of viruses. gdp for the 3 month at the end of june contracting from 2%, a jump of 3%. it means year on year, gdp was up more than 14%. no bases during strict lockdown at the start of the pandemic. the covid lockdown has been extended until the end of july in australia. australia is a good city -- australia's biggest city is performing more -- reporting more covid cases. australia is the second vaccine rollout among countries on the oecd. vonnie: lack of legal protections left asia's

the rbnz might hold off. wait for that to become entrenched.er key indicator being the labor market. unemployment is down to 4.7% in the first quarter. rv, one of the big four banks, sees that next year. -- rbnz, one of the big four banks, sees that next year. it is triple the pace they were expecting. rbnz already pulled back on qe, well off their piece of 1.25 billion a year ago and some analysts see purchases ending next month. >> what are the risks that could complicate things for the rbnz? paul: borders remain closed and the vaccination rate in new zealand is even worse than it is in australia and into the bloomberg vaccination tracker index so that is saying something. one area where new zealand also outstrips australia is the housing markets, the property market in new zealand even hotter than australia so that would add novation to the rbnz to book its early tightening. central banks got a close eye on the currency as well, wary of being one of the first major central banks to put some upward pressure on the new zealand dollar and creat

the rbnz has set on two bands of tightening that several economists polled by bloomberg do not expect cash rate will go beyond 2% this cycle. the prediction is for the rbnz to hike key rates to 2% by early 2023 but a rate strategists said there are risks in either direction to that outlook. there could be pressure to hike as mortars reopen in new zealand. over at citigroup, they're noting that rbnz when it comes to inflation, they put up their timeline for the hike at 2% by the first quarter of 2024. haidi: those numbers will come out from new zealand in the next five minutes or so. the st. louis fed president said it is time to end emergency measures to support the economy. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee. >> i think it's clear that some of the inflation will be temporary. how much feeds into a more persistent process is really the question that the committee has to wrestle with going forward. i think we are already above our target on core pc inflation. according to the summary of economic projections katie is -- the committee is predicting 3%, excluding food and

haidu: matthew there with a preview of the rbnz in the coming hours.e latest crypto crackdown is ending up, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. in abby has emerged as the front runner for citigroup's retail assets. said to be in advanced stages, valued at more than one big and. an agreement would make it australia's second-biggest biggest credit card player. it added that discussions would not necessarily lead to a deal. reports of trademark application forb couponiz. it could launch a brand focusing on small business operators. the stock has climbed about 15% in three days and has gained 31% since it debuted in march. the dow jones reporting and into talks after the founder change their minds about a sale. some employees are said to have thought the company would be a strange fit for efficiencies. the wall street journal reported the two sides were discussing a deal whose value range from 15-20,000,000,000 dollars, including debt. and the biggest dam return since 2010 on the rally in glo

the ecb goes for a light touch, what will the rbnz do?you look at the pboc versus christine lagarde, i am surprised the euro has not moved lower. in many ways, it was a reiteration of what we already knew. for her, it was about what shape does the clearer and crisper guidance take from the ecb? and powell speak later this week. it is a big week. dani: as dane said, the euro path and so much in em is dependent on the dollar. the dollar is looking more uncertain. powell, that will be hugely important for determining where the euro goes, it is stuck at about 118. manus: she might do a bit of readjustment over the summer. to the markets. jay powell will speak, you will get the rbnz. we had triple records on friday across the u.s. the s&p 500 down by two tens of 1% today. as we going to earnings season, banks and tech in focus. looking at revenue rises of between 30% and 50% across the banks. the collapse in yield is running into a little bit of a brick wall. have we reached a sense of exhaustion in terms of pricing a slowdown in the global ec

we have seen the kiwi be the outperformer after the hawkish rbnz statement.ing in two rate hikes this year alone. that drop in the dollar reflected across most of these currencies. the dollar china trading at 6.43. a little bit of softness when it comes to trading. the bloomberg index is seeing a limit of a pick up a broad decline. the most in about two weeks after jay powell pushing back on those expectations the central bank would taper anytime soon. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the domestic demand recovery on the consumption side has not been as strong as policymakers were expecting. >> they acknowledge a slowdown. >> the downward depression the second half this year is bigger than people had thought. >> the numbers may be less than initially expected. it sets china up for a good second half. >> the weakness persists throughout the rest of the year. >> looking to the second half, we need monetary policy side to support economic growth. ? some chance again. the probability is low. darker we forecast another cut in for by 50 basis points. >> so

dollar has been interesting because you have actually got one of the most hawkish central banks, the rbnzand the fact that markets are pricing the rbnz to start hiking the official cash rate as soon as august. but the kiwi is sensitive to global growth development. so if we do see these ongoing concerns about what the delta variant could do to the global growth outlook, that does suggest that the kiwi can continue to decline despite the fact that the outlook for rbnz rate hikes continues to improve. shery: what about the outlook for the chinese yuan and what is really moving the currency there? kim: yes, so we have actually recently downgraded our chinese 2021 gdp growth forecast so we were forecasting 9.2% this year and we recently downgraded it to a .6%. in part, that is a reflection of base effects but we are seeing downside risks due to chinese economic growth now and that is really because policymakers are shifting their focus towards reducing financials rather than supporting the economy. however, one thing to keep in mind is that we are also expecting a bit of easing from the peopl

the rbnz could move in november. chief asia economics correspondent says the rba is as bullish as they are dovish. they talked about the recovery in the overall economy, concerns about housing for prices rising too. you have a look at how the australian labor market is faring, unemployment at 5.1%. they spoke about closed borders, saying this is causing shortages of labor, particularly in areas affected by the closure of australia's international borders. so there are concerned still about the overall jobs market, dani. dani: juliet, thank you so much. juliette saly in singapore. still with us is maurice gravier. is the rba announcement today, they said recovery is stronger-than-expected. and will continue that way. what are the tailwinds economies are getting now, especially ones with more vaccinations, what is preventing these banks from tightening sooner? maurice: no bank once to be the first to tighten -- wants to be the first to tighten. you remove the support, even in the case of the rba, you don't want to dera

when it comes to the rbnz, westpac bringing forward its tightening, expecting rate hikes.radual tightening. haidi: more and more voices bringing that date forward. we get more markets insight ahead of global asset allocation. the market opens in sydney, seoul, and tokyo, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just

when will the rbnz do it? gm has started the fight -- the line is the average em central-bank rate.t is turkey and chile and russia. maybe it is the bank of korea. they have actually started it idiosyncratically. it goes to show is it time? a lot of these places have low vaccination rates. yvonne: i'm still confused about the deed -- gdp print. everyone is confused about what we are seeing when it comes to the chinese economy because we got that mls this morning that said they were going to roll out some of the debt but not all. maybe it is a signal they are not going to do more easing after that rrr cut. you have retail sales. you had a number that was not scary. what is the government seeing that we are not seeing? dave: let's get into this. garfield reynolds. it has been a busy morning. everything from the bond market with massive drops in 10 year yields. the bid out of china. what is your team talking about right now? what do you guys debating? mr. reynolds: we are debating how much you can trust this data and also how much the central bank and policymakers trusted. it is not fr

dani: kiwi dollar, the dodo is taking off after a hawkish tilt from the rbnz. it is gaming 0.9% -- gaining zero point 9% against the dollar. the 30 year bond yield above 2%. tepid at best, but got bond yields moving higher. looking at moves in the dollar, giving up ever so slightly the gains yesterday. one of the biggest gains so far this year for the dollar. and an equity market in asia that is softer. the u.s. headline inflation price accelerated to 5.4% year on year, the most since 2008. let's listen to some of our guests and what they had to say about that figure. >> we see some of the reopening restart inflationary pressures coming through. >> today's cpi number tells us the market will switch to whirring about inflation again. >> inflation is front and center for a bond investor or equity investor. >> this is not a big deal, it is transitory -- and yet they are going faster for longer. >> i will not assume it will be transitory. >> investors should prepare for the possibility bond markets are off. >> inflation will be worse than people think. i do not thi

this is adding to the chorus of banks and analysts that see by november a rate hike for the rbnz. still ahead, we will be discussing the g20 development over the weekend. the former deputy chief of staff and u.s. treasury department will be with us. next, we have the market outlook with a strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: fed chair jerome powell has to capitol hill this week for two days of testimony on monetary policy and the economy. we also have the june cpi report due this week, expected to be hot. for more, we are joined by scott crowe from center square investment management. the fed, jay powell, a lot of this emphasis on keeping stimulus in place, buying 20 of bonds and being reluctant to stop doing that has kept interest rates low, mortgage rates low, and helped create a fire under the housing market. what do you expected jay powell to say that could throw more fuel on the fire or cool it off? scott: he will try to be as dovish as he can as long as he can. that is one of the reasons the fed has been describing the current inflation numbers we are seeing as transit

market wants to know that the central bank is on a slightly different trajectory to bank of canada, rbnzthe bank of england, even to the non-autopilot status that bullard talked about last week at the fed. dani: thank you so much. you will be outside the ecb covering the decision day for us throughout the remainder of the day. that's manus cranny outside the ecb in frankfurt. let's get into this further. joining us now is derek halpenny. thank you so much for joining us this morning. in your view, is the ecb meeting today alive one or is it just a technical implementation of this new inflation target? derek: it is certainly a lot more significant than what it was before we had the announcement and the details of the monetary policy strategy review. when we listened to christine lagarde and press conferences explaining the outcome of the review, she tried so hard to emphasize this as being a major event, a very significant change in terms of the monetary policy strategy going forward. markets didn't really buy it. i think the effort will be there again today. we are certainly going to get

haidi: the rba in conjunction with the rbnz going gangbusters give some despite -- respite to the aussier? gareth: that is the case and also the markets are looking at the bigger picture. it is kind of putting the spotlight on how important it is to roll a vaccine out. i think by the end of this year, with the country, the majority of the people vaccinated and the economy reopening, there is a lot of stimulus and the economy and i think it will do very well next year. it is probably worth highlighting that last week on thursday we got the unemployment figures for june, they flew under the radar, but it shows the unemployment rate in june in australia was a 4.9%, a decade low. well it lower than the reserve banking sectors. had it not been for going into this covid lockdown, all of the attention would've been on those dom figures. -- jobless figures. but it highlights how quickly the economy can improve provided gives clear from covid. kathleen: what does this mean for scott morrison? the treasurer of australia saying he expects a 1% hit to gdp in the second and third quarters. what is th

shery: take a look at the rbnz after inflation top the target right for the first time in 10 years.are rising across the curve as markets boost bets for tightening. a 90% chance of a rate hike in august, projecting the first of three hikes with the push toward 1% in february. futures taking higher this morning. a bullish sentiment in treasuries as well. it will be difficult to see further curve flattening which seems to be a nonevent. the yen trading steady this morning. mulling a potential break lower in the dollar yet. so a potential push on those real yield differentials. shery: over in japan, will be watching fast retailing ahead of the open. the company cut its profit outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: will be watching retailing in tokyo, after lowering the profit outlook. let's get to our reporters covering this out of tokyo. what are some of the highlights and how did we see covid really play out here? >> it was really a rebalancing of expectations for fast retailing. the company lowered its full-year forecast and the reasons they gave for things that have been working the

before the latest lockdown in sydney, but relative to central banks such as the bank of canada, the rbnzit does feel to us that the reserve bank of australia is far more focused on wages, etc., so a long way away from talking about tapering or indeed tightening. there is potential outperformance during rates relative to canada and new zealand, but it is a story we have not seen much sign of yet but the australian dollar could underperform some of its peers. kathleen: a couple of things going on in the u.s. that could reverberate through global bond markets. in asia, i want to pull up the bloomberg chart, just showing the inflation. the cpi is expecting a real hot number, up four point 9% year-over-year. expected to be at least that month when we see the number for june. the breakevens, the five year breakevens, they kind of have leveled off and pulled back a bit. when are you expecting in terms of the inflation message? can bond investors say that as the u.s. story and it can infect the fed and u.s. bond yields? can you put it aside if you are heavily invested in other markets? brad: --