the rbnz did not play ball. the open daca -- the opec story is in play for david: it might be the turn of the calendar, a first quarter and a reassessment after a few days. we haven't gotten to the point to what those few days means because as of now, we are extending the risk rally across the region. 4.4% of the catch up trade here in hong kong. the dollar, more downside as we speak. against the dm though, the dollar stable right now. we will get to opec in a moment. look at this. in terms of repricing, we have seen it, but the repricing has taken place over the aggregate expectation of how high the fed will actually go. so, there has been a little adjustment. but if you measured it all the way to next year, and a reminder from the rbnz and now the philippines central-bank that because of inflation, that they say they are ready to take further policy action. it might have just been the rba. yvonne: it might have been the rba bucking the trend, offering parameters that they have very high household and also vari

this is bloomberg. >> still ahead we will preview the rbnz decision. they ca longer risk of the country slipping into recession. here why the cio thinks the u.s. stock rally won't last long. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> u.s. stocks coming off the best today rally since april of 2020, the second straight day that we actually saw 95% of the s&p 500 members gaining ground. this perceived peak hawkish in us really boosting investor appetite. our next guest is not sure the u.s. stock rally will last long. let's bring in senior partner at asset management. it seems to me that it's not just you. cutting the year end price target to 3500, what are your reasons? >> to add on to some of the comments, a lot of it i see is not just rate hikes, but a supply of the amount of debt that's out there. in particular with u.s. markets, there's is an extra trillion worth of debt because of government spending over the next year. another for quantitative tightening. and so that means there are a lot more bonds for sale. and so it's just because of this massive flood of debt and

the rbnz meets later today. other part of this story of the rally here is also what we were seeing in terms of the rsi is so most of these markets at oversold conditions coming into the rally so some strategists saying the pessimism really had reached such extreme levels that i bounce was just a question of when it would happen but phil, the thing that is very important is not to get caught up into thinking that the market bottom is here. it could be but we could be in another bull market or trap rather. we are still in a bear market and this could be another relief rally and this idea really based around a fed pivot perhaps is not near at all because if you bring up this eco-u.s. function here, we can take a look. these are all of the fed speakers that are coming up over the coming day. we already heard from mary daly earlier speaking at the council on foreign relations. she basically called inflation a corrosive disease that is eroding income. it really does paint this picture that fed officials are still very

yvonne: yvonne: the rbnz yvonne: continues to be hawkish.u think there's a void entering into a recession next year? grant: a lot of commentators still see resilience and strength in the economy. exports are holding out particularly well. people want our tourism to come back here. it's going to be a challenging year with a global slowdown, no doubt. a lot of economists can still see resilience. inflation well outside of the target of one to 3%. i think we can keep a balance going through into next year and avoid that. what happens in the rest of the world has a big impact on an open trading nation like new zealand. david: it is that same resilience that the reserve bank has pointed to for the need for higher rates. let me ask you directly. do you think the economy needs a recession, even a mild one? grant: obviously, we've seen a significant amount of stimulus in the economy. demand has hold up. that's what causes those inflationary pressures. most economists recognize that there will be some effect from that. we will see that demand and slo

rba, rba and z -- rbnz. now we have some signs governor lowe is starting to price in the pivot, or a leastt hint this is where they are going. opec meeting in vienna, that will be a crucial one. we have inflation numbers out of korea, thailand, taiwan, philippines. and in the u.s. jobs report. rishaad: aussie dollar, 63, now 64. but nevertheless. always great to see you. is there anything which can possibly right now halt this, i am not going to say king dollar, but i have said it now. anyway, the strength of the dollar. >> in terms of the framework on the dollar outlook, what are fx team highlights is there are two key things they are watching. they want the fed rate hike ex petitions to peak and they want the rest of the world's growth to bottom out. on the fed rate hike expectations, as far as our forecasts are concerned it is pretty much there. but when do we see the rest of the world growth bottoming out? in terms of our team's forecast, we have that happening in the first quarter of next year. that wil

rbnz last week, they did a faith the -- they did a 50 basis point hike. you have china and japan, they will not do anything, and the rba notable last week as well, they did 25 instead of 50. a handful are not being so aggressive but many others are on that path. haidi: certainly, not doing anything when it comes to following the rest of the pack, but the pboc could be doing more. even as we get this drumbeat into the last week as we get into the party congress meeting, where we assume we get a third term for president xi jinping, a lot of analysts are hoping we could see a roadmap out of covid zero coming out of the party congress. 1600 new covid cases on saturday, the highest for china since early september. it comes at a pretty bad time when it comes to this key political gathering. a lot of these have come over the national golden week holidays and it calls into question will the leadership be willing to loosen the reins when it comes to covid zero even after this key political gathering has happened? if not, we could potentially see the pboc forced to

and what happens with the rv and said -- rbnz, they could do a 50 basis point hike as well, so you are seeing pressure on the kiwi. asian stocks are holding onto the best day since march despite be missile launch we saw from north korea. the likes of japan and korea higher. dani: all you get is that heart today. we will have to get you the other reports he desired. on the other side of the break, we saw the s&p 500 enjoying its best session since july. third-best since the 1930's. investors are paring expectations of how aggressively the fed will hike. following weaker than expected manufacturing data. but rafael bostic says companies adjusting supply chains will lead to more upward pressure on prices. >> elevated inflation today is the most pressing issue facing policymakers. by crating long-term upward price pressure, secular shifts in supply chain management could present additional challenges for monetary policy makers during a period of already elevated inflation. dani: not to mention it is jobs day on friday. here to help us cover jobs week is bloomberg's daniel loss. there is an

rbnz is starting to focus more on wage growth.vernor kuroda has said even if they move the yield prove control by 25 basis points, what does it do to dollar-yen when the fed is doing that every meeting? the primary tool of defending the currency is fx intervention i the minister of finance and the bank of japan will likely continue to set policy easing. to your point, i think you are right that the boj could -- the ministry of finance could slow the pace of yen depreciation but the ultimate direction of the currency is driven by monetary policy, which is driven more by the fed. yvonne: i guess everyone is trying to hold on as long as they can until there are signs of the dollar peaking. i'm wondering, when do you think the dollar can peak and what is going to be the likely catalyst? >> in terms of dollar-yen we see japan's current account, we expect the fed to finish its hiking cycle in february next year at the 5% and from there on in the second half of next year we expect cuts in the policy rate. we could begin to see seachange,

it takes us back into the rbnz which is tomorrow. that seems fairly straightforward. another big one. they might even take that one up all the way beyond 4%. speaking of rate hikes, you have the bank of england, the whole u.k. story this week. have a look at this. you have sterling for example, a couple of fridays ago the big collapse into the weekend. we are back to levels quite literally before that friday when the announcement came out and collapsed the currency. we are back to 113 right now in cable. the other thing that has not gone away is in the gilt market. yes, yields essentially whipsawed, but 10 day has exploded higher. so the store is not higher. -- is not over. rishaad: there is more to come and more of a reversal than the u-turn we saw yesterday by the authorities there, the u.k. government. let's bring in garfield reynolds. what are you making of all this? economically it might make sense given loosening fiscal policy and tightening monetary policy at the same time, married with qe. garfield: it is definitely going to be messy for some time to come in u

the rbnz sticking with a hawkish path. now could be the time to pivot. we are looking a little more positive for asx 200 futures. new zealand online to the upside. perhaps this comes down to one key fed official urging more caution on the outlook for rates. shery: we continue to watch that potential fed pivot. we seem to have moved away from that attentional case. at the same time market seem to have taken some optimism coming from the comments when it comes to being a little more cautious when it comes to federate heights. -- fed rate hikes. she had made similar comments last month. still right now the best case narrow is we will continue to see fed policy being restrictive and potentially a fourth straight 75 basis point increase. the google macro picture seat -- the global macro picture seems to have changed. >> returned to see the effect of some sectors but it is going to take time for the cumulative tightening to transmit throughout the economy and for inflation to come down. uncertainty is high so i'm paying close attention to global risk. haidi: g

it is also part of why there are strong expectations the rbnz we'll stick to the sort of hiking path has been carrying out. >> thank you so much, these are currencies that are definitely in focus. that is bloomberg's chief correspondent for asia and live contributor garfield reynolds. let's stay with foreign exchange as we bring in annabelle who has been looking at what analysts have been saying about the yen. talk us through the details. this is still a hot currency story. >> that's right. this is a new call from credit. the yen could offer the best opportunity for profits against the dollar over the medium-term. the reason they are saying this is because they are looking at recessionary fears that are building on the economy. during those periods of contraction, that is supportive, all safe havens like the yen, they are also looking at real fx exchange rate terms, when you look at those, they say the yen also appears to be. ultracheap. . we do also need to note that agricole is basing this on the assumption that the fed will pay but and rates. obviously that's been quashed by the l

zealand's inflation remained near a 32 year high in the third quarter, reinforcing bets that aggressive rbnz rate hikes will continue. annual inflation eased slightly to 7.2%. economists were looking for a drop to 6.5%. they do not expect inflation to return to the 1% to 3% target barrel until 2024. russia has hit critical infrastructure in central cap with suspected uranian bones -- drones. authorities say four people were killed as the aircraft damage several houses and sparked a fire in a nonresidential building. letter mayor zelenskyy praised troops who the military says shut down 13 incoming brooms -- drones. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: thank you. an exclusive interview on the way next where we can find out concerns, as we get haslinda amin in singapore. >> i will be speaking with blackrock vice chairman philipp hildebrand. find out how the world's biggest money manager is viewing the turmoil in the u.k., looming restructuring at credi

interesting to see how they progress from here, harder than expected pushing according to kiwi bank the rbnz points. you can continue to watch michelle bullet speaking on the bloomberg. the two vonnie quinn. >> russia has hit critical infrastructure with a suspected iranian drone. authorities say four people were killed as they laid -- damaged several houses and sparked a fire. s lasky -- bloated mere zelenskyy praised troops. hold. eu nations have begun reacting to iranian drones. the block is gathering evidence to determine whether they are using iranian drones. new zealand inflation remained near a 32 year high inflation ease slightly. the central bank is not expect inflation to return to its target band until mid-2024. reg leaders are investing i felt crypto hedge fund. they're looking into whether the money manager violated rules by misleading investors and not registering. three arrows filed for bankruptcy in july after the collapse of a blockchain lead to a broad selloff. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts

kathleen: don't miss our interview with new zealand finance minister grant robinson as the rbnz sayss are ahead, he joins us at fun cook -- 10:30 a.m. hong kong time. up next, have opec-plus's huge supply cuts are affecting energy markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: let's look at w we that wti trading early in the asian session. opec-plus output about half of what they said, meaningfully. to millions barrels a day. we are hearing that russia may reduce its own top -- its own output even after the biggest opec-plus supply cuts since 2020. oil futures selling around $88 a barrel left of that agreement announced on current output limits. they say they may impose a temporary production cut in response to the efforts by u.s. and others to cap apprise of russian crude. the deputy energy ministers saying the nation will not sell oil to nations that cap oil prices. in terms of the opec-plus cut is concern from the markets that it is going to make the fight against inflation harder. we get more from the saudi oil minister, saying u.s.-led plans for a rise cap on russian imports are fanning

we had the rbnz talking about why there are strong expectations that the rba this week will only go by point 25 points. we are then set up for the fed and in the boe to almost certainly both go 75 basis points. what will the rhetoric be? will they say to end -- and the investors hoping for a slowdown in policy aggression, no, it is too early for that? if they do say that, you have this whirlwind of investors who bought into bonds hoping that these high yields will protect them against further losses, against further increases in yields, and against volatility. alternatively, if you get something that looks like a definitive pivot, you can get strong bond and start -- stock rallies as investors celebrate the end of the tightening. >> garfield, here in brazil, already there are questions about when the central bank will start cutting rates. what do the moves in developing economies and this dovish take on central banks mean for emerging economies that perhaps have suffered from pressure under currencies this long? >> well, emerging economies are usually at the pointy end when it comes to