rate hikes -- the rbnz looking to downshift rate hikes. vladimir putin vowing to press on with his war in ukraine as he suspends moscow's last nuclear treaty with washington. >> i'm at the goldman sachs global macro conference in hong kong, day two, bringing together the bank's biggest names and industry leaders. we will hear from the -- david kostin about why 2023 means the return of alpha after a macro driven 2022. we will have a conversations about the outlook for european stocks and the war in ukraine as it heads into a second year. >> take a look at how u.s. futures are coming online in the asian session. we are seeing a little support after the s&p 500 was in the red in the new york session. the dow erasing all of this year's gains. it's all the worst day in three months -- it saw the worst day in three months. a combination of fear over geopolitics, poor corporate outlooks, and rising 10-year yie lds, close to the 4% level, as the markets try to reprice where the fed is headed from here. we have u.s. pmi numbers coming in above expe

the rbnz has fallen through with a very aggressive tightening cycle.uestion today will be what happens when the bank of korea, will they hike again or perhaps be the first to stand pat? >> the expectation seems to be that they will actually stand pat. our next guest expects the bank of korea to be the first mention -- major central bank deposit on rakes -- rates. kathleen, always great to have you. the expectation right now seems to be that the bok will downgrade growth forecasts given the challenges that the economy faces. how tricky will the messages be for the bok not to tell markets that they are going to cut immediately? >> you are exactly right. we are expecting a hawkish hold this morning. we do see a no change decision at 3.5%. at the same time, we see one or two dissenters who were still call for a hike. that is likely to be diluted down because of the growth forecast that's likely to be revised downward towards 1.6 or even 1.5. that should message to the market that the bok is unlikely to continue hiking from here. haidi: you are pointing at

what are you expecting to hear from the rbnz governor? i want to start with something tracy withers nor burlington bureau picked out as the key phrase because they did make the 50-basis point hike, they point out that while there are early signs of demand easy, it continues to outpace supply. the committee agreed monetary conditions need to tighten further. how much further, mr. orr? you say the rates will peak at 5.5%? does that mean another 50-25? what would make you slow down? the fact that they say implement remains beyond the maximum level, how much does it have to slow down? that unemployment rate is still very low. and remember, they will update their forecast, very important as well. they see in terms of the more dovish part of this, the recession starting in the second quarter of this year. although adrian orr says they expect him be a mild recession. they see the policy as contractionary no, that is another cautionary sides. these are some of the things that we want to learn more about, and we want to hear them pushed on by our

that the economic weakness could force the rbnz to rethink where its peak rate ends up. haidi: we are focused on the disruptions from political tensions paid would a we get it has been when it comes to geopolitics and diplomatic tensions. we had the highly debated meeting between antony blinken and china's top diplomat. it was an unusual readout i thought from that meeting from the u.s. side. quite forceful language and in line with what we heard from president i than last week saying he would make no apologies but seeking competition, not conflict. we heard antony blinken winning against one we against providing with weights about his invasion of ukraine as we get to the one-year mark of the conflict rebuking him over the alleged by a balloon incident that set off these heightened tensions between the u.s. and china saying the u.s. had information china was considering whether or not to give russia assistance. at the same time we see these developments over north korea as well. shery: really not going to help with geopolitical tensions when it comes to the intercontinen

new zealand assets, watching as we head into rbnz decisions.ke 50 basis points at the next meeting to 4.7 5%, potentially hawkish. the aussie dollar losing ground as it gained ground this morning, fairly -- firmly on that side but the best performer so far in g10. let's get to annabel, who joins us in hong kong with the goldman sachs global macro conference. we talk about the dominant narrative when it comes to what is driving investors and sentiment. is the repricing of fed expectations? >> the question is whether the disinflation trend powell spoke about, whether that will be permanent or disinflationary. goldman sachs have upgraded the forecast of where the terminal rate ends up, and they see one more rate hike in june. let's bring in the man who made the forecast upgrade, the chief economist. thanks for joining us. >> great to be on the show. >> welcome back to hong kong. >> it is wonderful to be back. >> talk us through what drove the adjustment you made. >> our expectation for growth is stronger than for many other forecasters. we see a l

new zealand's housing downturn deepened as the rbnz continued to hike interest rates. average house price declined the equivalent of 582,000 u.s. dollars. the central bank predicts they will fall from their peak early next year. a former ftx chief has pleaded guilty to several charges including wire fraud. he is the third member of the inner circle to flip against sam bankman-fried. saint -- saying he knew alameda research was borrowing billions without customers knowledge. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. shery: coming up next, we will hear exclusively from an executive chair about their commitment to double digit dividend growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if we live to 100. i don't want to outlive our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. shery: shares of santander rose to a three-year high after he promised to return a hig

new zealand is looking pretty flat tiered investors staying on the sidelines as we await the rbnz decision and whether or not they will slow the pace of tightening. chicago nikkei futures looking muted. sticking with central banks, our economics reporter is here with a look at what to expect. are we expecting any new justification for the decision to do 25 and then probably more? >> yes, one thing that was not asked of philip lowe in all those testimonies last week was what was on the table on the seventh of february when they decided to make that hawkish pivot. that is going to be a key focus today. people in markets and economists are going to see they consider a pause at all because they considered a pause in december. did they consider 50 basis points again and was there anything else on the table because there have been some expectations they will do 15 and 40 basis points. the rba has shown no inclination of making it a rounded figure. people do want to see what was on the table. that is going to be a key one today. yvonne: how does the rba's outlook and this whole path for hiking co

the swaps market has been expecting the rbnz would go on being the home of the developed world's highest rates. they confirmed that and that they expect recession. that's a pretty hawkish take in the middle of a pretty hawkish set of central bankers. manus: he really is. the question is just how high do we go? and where do we rest. let's talk about the equity market. i started the conversation around the bond market, where dreams went to die, but the equity market got a jolt yesterday. do you agree with morgan stanley that the risk premium is in the death zone? that's a fairly dramatic statement, isn't it? >> i've been pretty skeptical that the relative resilience of equities can continue. one of the building blocks for that has been that the u.s. economy, and a lot of economies as well, have ended up being surprisingly strong after four percentage points plus of rate hikes. and so far, too, part of the problem for bonds is that resilience is extending. you look at the services pmi overnight. the problem is that means the fed is going to go higher than anybody expected. it's going to sta

and rbnz, but also tons of geopolitical tensions to watch. haidi: yes. talk about that.ken meetings, terse words being exchanged about that allegedly spy balloon incident, but also potential assistance to russia on beijing's behalf being warned against by antony blinken. of course also pyongyang. let's see how all this is setting up for the market open. annabelle: it has been a very busy start to the trading week in asia. we have the open of japan and korea. no trading due to the public holiday, but at the start of the day the focus was on those geopolitical tensions coming through. we do understand that north korea has fired perhaps three missiles over the course of the morning. this, in response to drills that were carried out over the weekend. that is really framing the start of the trading week, geopolitical tensions and focus, adding to the more hawkish commentary from fed officials at the end of last week. unsurprising we are looking slightly risk off, watching that dollar strength coming through. that will also be saying on equities. this is the outlook, futures a