haidi: we are watching the rbnz decision.mes to retail sales, stripping out inflation quarter on quarter, coming in at a contraction of 1.4%. that is worse than expectations. it extends the contraction of 6/10 of a percent that we saw in the previous quarter. a fall in retail sales mirroring the concerns about recession risks for the new zealand economy. the budget update did give a bigger than expected spending boost for the economy, there are expectations that the influx of immigration will be and inflationary force. hence the expectations the rbnz is not finished, expectations are for 25 basis points, even 50 basis points. we are seeing a depression when it comes to the consumer side of the economy. more ahead here on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. shery: a quick check of business flash headlines. alibaba is a cloud

is the rbnz really done? >> yes, we think the rbnz is done.llar was because markets as we went into the meeting this morning was pricing in either one or two hikes. it was the liquidation of those that have priced in two hikes. if you take a step back and look at the global central bank landscape, in most of the economies, the inflation pressure is between five and 6%. when a central bank brings about 7%, i think it is only natural for them to consider a pause in take to an end because they reached a state where the rates are back to neutral or slightly positive. it is what we are seeing from the fed, they are calling a timeout for now. it is not a surprise and we think it is the last hike in the cycle for the rbnz. rishaad: we have a government saying the latest data she is seeing this pleasing after a long battle. this is the language, we had yvonne say this, mission accomplished. surely that is a bit premature. you also have another player on this which is the aussie dollar is outperforming its kiwi cousin. >> i think it is a little bit pol

that's swati pandey on the rbnz. speaker kevin mccarthy left the capitol late tuesday afternoon say the two parties had yet to reach a deal to avert u.s. default. u.s. contractors are already reporting government delays in payments. joining us now is bloomberg derek wallbank. what sticks out to me is republicans may be having skepticism on june 1 being the actual six date m-- ex-date, is there a possibility we will not get resolution by next week? derek: congress works best with a firm deadline. there is a necessary amount of flex in the deadline. the deadline set by the u.s. treasury is as early as june 1. doesn't mean it will be june 1 at midnight, there could be a little flex. i've read multiple reports suggesting when the actual ex-date might be. you wind up in some bad scenarios if you say it will be at one time and it is two days in advance. it gets into danger areas. understandably, the treasury and speaker mccarthy don't want to go down that road what you do see some thoughts that that is not actually the ex-

expressed by rbnz officials.that has come in double what was expected to be in december, before the gabriel storm that devastated the north island of new zealand, repairs are going to be going on for months, it will need billions of dollars, that will be an expansion -- expansionary, it will add to output. along with a surge of migration, 100,000 or more migrants are expected, new people in new zealand, helping to fill job positions, etc. a 2% rise in the population will result. they will be bringing more demand. that is another reason why people are saying, maybe they will do a 50 basis point rate hike. he has never been loathed what something that surprises people a bit. -- with something that surprises people a bit. some are betting on 50 basis points. they at least as they update their forecast, could not move that vision of a 5.5% terminal right to 6% --ate to 6%? at least a 25 basis point hike is the messaging it will be focused on. >> speaking of messaging, with a meeting to out tomorrow, what are we looki

. >> bank of korea like the rbnz have led, this would be their third hold if they do. love this chart because you can see how they took those rates right up and several steps . two meetings ago, they said we aren't sure maybe were going to hold and the decision today is expected to be unanimous. two things we have to watch closely. they think growth is going to slope. bubble demand is getting weaker. they are an export driven economy. and inflation is looking better part of the headline inflation is down 3.7%. we will probably get the same kind of messaging from them that we got from another to four hours ago. they've done hikes and another what to sit back and watch her come down. i think the surprise would be them looking at a cut but they probably won't because they are a target yet for inflation. everyone will be waiting to see. definitely making progress on the headline, but a ways to go. haidi: let's get a set up of the thursday markets. annabelle: this chart doesn't show. this is as we unacceptably -- unexpectedly saw the rbnz signal that it was at the end of it

this could mean the disinflation is not as quick as the rbnz likes.e forecast at the end of this month on may 24. >> wage pressures seem to soften us triller, does that seem to -- soften australia. >> we do need to see incredibly strong job numbers. as a board is reopened we see a massive surge in they were supply. the conserved -- consensus is 25,000 jobs this month, in a more normal period we expect to be a strong outcome. we need on our estimates, between 9000 jobs a month to keep pace with the -- 29000 jobs a month or keep pace with the rapid publishing growth. although jobs growth could remain relatively healthy we could be seeing the labor supply dynamic within the australian economy easing off. some of the soft wage pressures coming through. haidi: bloomberg economist for australia and new zealand ahead of the aussie jobs numbers. we have the market open coming up next, two of the stories we are following for australia and new zealand. the budget handed out in a few hours time expected to be tight when it comes to any spending measures. we are

we will know more when it comes to the rbnz. that potential advantage when it comes to investors looking at this part of the world first the fat? -- fed. >> we are probably toward the tail end of the rate hike cycle. the monetary conditions are probably going to get a little more competitive in the few quarters ahead. that is a pretty good set up i would say. inflationary conditions are now softening across the region. we have actually seen some of the central bank's already pausing ahead of the fed. this set up makes a pretty reasonable and good for the central bank decision-makers to pause in the quarters ahead even ahead of the fed. >> what you make of when it comes to the china factor western mark do you think that is a catalyst for more exposure to chinese risk assets? >> the data in april has been a little weaker than what investors have been expecting. i think you some should has been good for some sectors but generally speaking, it has been much than expected. there maybe another round of fiscal stimulus from the central

we have the rbnz meeting next week. there may be a little more tightening in the pipeline.the next few hours we will also be getting jobs numbers for april out of australia. what are we seeing in the labor market? >> slowing growth expected in the labor market. we are anticipating 20,000 full-time jobs have been added in the month of april. that's a reasonable slowdown from what we saw in march. the unemployment rate might know of to 3.6% and the reserve bank of australia has been watching this as well saying as the economy slows, the unemployment rate is expected to take up. migration into us to you has been growing. that is all setting up conditions for a little bit of listening and the labor market. we have to keep some perspective. the unemployment rate still hovering around 50 year low. haidi: also tuning to bloomberg radio, you can hear daily news from the biggest newsmakers. we are broadcasting live from that studio in hong kong. more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinos

there is the bank of korea, the rbnz, inflation numbers coming out from tokyo, and earnings in chinawe have that on the open in bangkok. let's see how it is starting for the session as we get political accommodation taking place. we have seen a fall against the dollar by 11% and we are also looking at the set, just about 1%. we are also looking at what will likely happen at the open for the nifty, looking like a flat day. the rupee trade gets underway in the next half hour. pretty much unchanged, so far. yvonne: let's get to mark cranfield joining us from singapore. walk us through the news we are seeing on markets and stocks, but fx is where the heart of discussion is this week, especially when you are seeing a renminbi closer to that seven handle. do you think the pboc's rhetoric is enough to sustain this rally? mark: not on its own, because it is a broader issue. the dollar strength is coming from the fact that short-term yields are sold higher in the u.s. relative to the rest of the g10 space. treasury bill yields have been rising as people worry that this debt ceiling talk is go

a look at the week ahead, watching central-bank decisions, on wednesday, the rbnz is expected to deliverrate hike. policymakers will wait for definitive signs that inflation is waning in indonesia before reducing the benchmark rate. on thursday, the bank of korea is set to release its rate decision, they say that consumer prices were easing for a third straight month. we'll be getting cpi prints from tokyo, singapore and hong kong as well. pmi manufacturing numbers are due out of japan and australia, we have a prime rate decision from china and the ppi data is also expected from japan and south korea as well. >> markets are on edge before where the the budget talks will produce a solution to the debt ceiling crisis as the window to effort disaster narrows. officials will resume discussions ahead of the meeting on monday between the president and the house speaker. that is your week ahead. >> debt limit negotiations will resume in washington ahead of the meeting between resident joe and kevin mccarthy in the coming hours. time is growing short to avert the default. let's talk more about t

. -- rbnz. he was giving his prebudget speech saying there shouldn't be inflationary tax cuts.e manufacturing pmi seeing weakening of the qb economy. jamie dimon says regulators should do whatever they need to do to end the banking crisis, in an exclusive interview with france will -- francine lacqua. >> the debt ceiling is catastrophic. that's a whole different issue. hopefully will not happen. the banking crisis will sort its way through and it is not anything like 2008 or 2009. only a couple of people off size, which you knew about. hopefully it is getting near the tail end. >> if you are janet yellen, what would you do differently? >> i don't know. we need to finish the bank crisis. we found an uncertain pause on mergers, the first horizon deal. we have to assume there will be more. whatever the fdic, the federal reserve, whatever they need to do to make it better, they should do. be very forward-looking. do not be surprised constantly. some of these things we have known about for a while. we've had all three, svb, signature, first republic. >> are you asking -- >> the regi

the rbnz estimated the cyclone would add 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation in the first and secondhe central bank has since downgraded that impact to 0.1. it drove up food costs but did not affect other goods. the turkish central bank has kept its benchmark rate on hold. this in a bid to stabilize the currency. this is the habit of a runoff election on sunday. president erdogan has a chance to extend his rule. he has championed keeping borrowing costs low. ups's takeover credit suisse may take longer to finalize. the deal's completion could be put back to june instead of late may. the swiss government back in march brokered the 3 billion-dollar takeover deal to prevent the total collapse of credit suisse. robert friedland told bloomberg that the tumble in copper prices is a temporary setback. this comes after china's economic activity disappointed expectations. he says he is very, very bullish on demand. >> it is important to understand that mines take 15 years to build. it is not supplied you can turn on. we are seeing a relatively low price of copper because we are breaking down

we had some headlines from the rbnz. brent crude has been snapping that recent rally.t is unlikely to take any steps at his next meeting. >> our next guest -- willis now is the head of asian equity research. is it more important than ever to find those bargains? where are they? >> good morning. it is always important to try to find bargains. we had a pretty good first half of the year. especially with the u.s. and tech. they position for it to be a little bit more defensive into the second half of the year. in terms of finding bargains. there are pockets of bargains out there. a couple months ago we published a note called pix and shelves for generative ai where we were taking the view that if you want to play the generative ai trade, it is kind of hard to pick the platforms. there is a lot of equipment around semiconductors that needs to go into building the infrastructure to support the next wave in generative ai. that has played out a lot over the last couple of days. >> how much of those opportunities can be found in japan? we saw this incredible rally. there were

the previous session with first quarter unemployment data beating estimates, perhaps signaling the rbnzal with wage inflation and cement a hike. we saw what happened with the rba having to resume those hikes. we had australian stocks under pressure. futures at the moment pointing to the downside. haidi: we have been urging what the rates markets have been saying in terms of how they feel about the projections coming from fed chair jay powell and the fomc. there is a discrepancy, a gap between expectations and pricing in fears of a u.s. recession or recessionary light conditions when you look at rates markets, but also increasing the commodity markets and crude markets. we are seeing bond traders seeing that surge and treasuries , led by intermediate and shorter-dated securities and were watching the action on the shorter end when it comes to australian and new zealand bonds. as you mentioned, this puts the rba into an interesting place about whether we see a pause. we talked about that window for hikes potentially closing. we are still waiting on the boe and ecb this week. shery: these

potential strength when it comes to the aussie-kiwi given the trajectory of the rbnz ad.een qa positive's dominating that narrative. so much focus remains on japanese equities. consensus that japan, stop market is where you need to be given the economic and policy headwinds facing the u.s. and china as we continue to push these multi year highs. shery: yeah. let's turn to japan's largest online broker -- third largest online broker. they see this year adding another 10% as low valuations lure buyers. joining us now is monex group ceo oki matsumoto from the clsa forum in tokyo. thank you so much for your time today. of course, there is so much exuberance about japanese equities. what makes this rally different from past peaks that fizzled out? oki: if you look at japan, the government and the policy are very stable. not like in the states. the new boj governor is providing a very stable environment, not like the former governor kuroda, who did not like surprises. kishida has been executing lots of strong economic push policies, like restarting the the nuclear grant, beefin

rbnz initially --cyclone would add three percentage point to inflation.al bank had downgraded that impacted 0.1 saying it drove up food costs and did not affect other goods. ubs and swiss government have agreed to the precise terms of state guarantees for the emergency takeover of credit suisse. sources say the deal's completion could be pushed back to june. ubs and the government are still haggling over the regulatory implications of the takeover, including capital requirements and acquitted the rules. global news powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts and over 120 countries. i am madison mills and this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ >> while inflation is still too high, there are promising signs of moderation. i believe we may be at or near the point where monetary policy can pause raising interest rates. this will provide an opportunity to more fully assess the impact of the actions