. >> with the mid term elections over a week away, we look to kansas as red as a red state can get. president obama lost it by more than 20 points. former senators braun yak one the governor's race, two years later led a purge of moderates from the state government. he became too extreme even for members of his own party and now republicans fighting back. we look at battle for kansas, as america votes, 2014. >> good morning, everyone, welcome to the cans state fair in what could be a pivotal year in state politics. >> in the race for governor of kansas, challenger paul davis is running neck and neck witness incumbent, sam brownback. >> good morning, kansas. good morning, kansas state fair! good morning, good to of you here. i've been coming to these for over 40 years and i love a kansas get together. that is fabulous. >> i'm paul davis, a moderate, common sense leader, independent thinker. i'm supported by over 100 current and former republican elected officials. the governor's experiment just isn't working. we are trailing our surrounding states and the rest of the country in virtu

as red as red as red! (cheers and applause) i'm glad we didn't do that whole picture (laughter) i mean, if there is just even a hint of teal in this stateat guy's got to be going down. >> numbers released today show commanding leads for republicans candidates statewide. dan patrick came out with a 17-point lead over democrat leticia van de putte. >> jon: 17-point lead! is he running against a democrat or a jar of salsa from new york city! (laughter) maybe the blue is starting on a local level, a congressional representative. >> i've had people say, hey, there's nothing wrong with, you know, gays in the military. look at the greeks. well, you know, they did have people come along who they loved that was the same sex and would give them massages before they went into battle. but you know what, it's a different kind of fighting, it's a different kind of war and if you're sitting around getting massages all day, then you're not going to last very long. (laughter) >> jon: you know gays and their massages. (laughter) it was okay in the old days when wars had happy endings, right? (laughter) wow! i'll be, like, that guy is actually trying to t

red states, or are they? because if democrats having to win red states was the story for most of this year, now all of a sudden there is a new story, and take kansas, it's as red state as they can. romney won it by 22 points. has not elected a democrat to the senate in 84 years, and was not on anybody's radar until the democratic candidate dropped out, and then that left roberts against ormanning there. what has happened in kansas has totally and completely blown up the republican party's 2014 playbook. all year they assumed that any republican name on the ballot in a state like kansas would win in november, and they knew pat roberts was not popular and they knew roberts moved far to the right to protect himself from a primary challenge and none of that worried them because it's not like kansas voters were not going to turn around and vote for a democrat, but that's the genius politically speaking of what greg orman is doing as a candidate, because he is not a democrat. all of a sudden, those that don't like roberts or president obama, they can vote for somebody who is not pat roberts or in president obama's party. democrats are betting orman, if he does win,

as a legacy. iowans have not been too tide to either party. widely considered a purple state, iowa is kagsally red -- occasionally red, backing george w. bush. know blue, voting for barack obama in 2012. chuck is a republican. harkin a democrat. kathy is a political columnist with the dumb i know register -- dumb i know register. >> iowa is a divided government state. people have a lot of interest. >> reporter: the outside interest resulted in a slew of ads. many of them no hold's bar. the demoyne register reports campaign spending in the race $14 million. for tv ads, 30,000 in what promises to be a spend aring record for the estate-wide states. >> the majority are purchased by somebody other than the two candidates. for example, the super pact ads are blanketing the state, and a lock of the attack adds from from the national democratic and republican committees. >> reporter: on election day it may be heard by this video, shot at a fundraiser with texas lawyers, as any of the positions on the issues, including the minimum wage. >> you might have a farmer from iowa that never went to law school, never practised law, serving as the next chair

when you're in red states and when you are playing right now as this election is on a red landscape wherect the president lost arkansas, alaska, louisiana. close in north carolina. you look at that and say, well, that's where the president is a liability and that's why you see democrats distancing themselves. >> talk about new hampshire. that's not a red state. senator jean shaheen is in a dead heat with scott brown, republican senator from massachusetts. she was asked about this this weekend and said the president is very busy. granted, he is between oeb ebold isis and everything else, but she doesn't expect him to drop everything and campaign with her. once again yesterday he had several hours to go golfing. some people had a problem with that, others say they don't, he has to unwind. but over 200 rounds of golf psh. >> she had vice president joe biden show up to do a speech with her as a political appearance. i want to get back to what you said about the red states versus blue states. if you look at colorado. in 2008 where obama actually accepted the nomination. mark udall is probably

north carolina is actually a red state or a sort of red-purple state that i think the democrat might hang on. kay hagan has had a lot of help with a lot of money from outside groups asndraising, and they really hurt thom tillis hard on education so-called cuts that his legislature made. but he has, he has come back strong. i think a lot of the stuff on national security he's been pushing in his ads, so this one really will come down to the wire. the louisiana one is interesting. of course, louisiana is sort of an open primary that we're having in november, so if neither candidate gets 50% -- which is looking likely -- they'll actually go to a december runoff. the interesting thing here is looking at those poll numbers, you have to wonder there's a second republican candidate who's sort of getting from the tea party wing of the party, he's polling somewhere in the 10s or up to even, you know, 19% in some of these polls. if he weren't in the race, you wonder if cassidy couldn't put this away in november, but it doesn't look like he's going to be able to do that although i do think he has a good shot in the runoff. martha: the cassidy folks are thinking the same thing,

mode in some of these red states or quasi red states and fix it as quick as they could because they have got this terrible political noose around their neck created by this. that is not a positive development or wonderful thing. it is a mess and they did it. and half of them are going to fix and half of them are not. you have a burden. >> give them different authority to say it -- >> but different authority? the congress -- >> house of representatives -- >> where you have a point. the high risk pool idea is not controversial. >> we are talking political movement. if you were in the house and i was in the house we would have a chance. we are not. what is going to happen is the people who wanted to kill obamacare at all whole time will say we finally got a stake in the vampire's heart. the other ones will sad loss 600,000 covered -- i have to create a state exchange. >> a bunch of wonderful speeches looking at the 2016 presidential election and democrats think they have the republicans where they want them and screwed 8 million people and would not let imam of that box so i don't know where you think in 15 minutes this town will fix something this big and complicated whe

red. arkansas, mark pryor is in a world of trouble in arkansas. we're going to paint that red. louisiana, as you might expect, it's a funky state. they have a very different way of doing elections down there. but the bottom line in louisiana right now, is that mary landrieu, the incumbent democrat, conventional wisdom is she has a tougher road than the republican she faces. south dakota, one of the most volatile states on the map right now because you have an independent candidate, former republican senator, now running as an independent, getting over 20% in the polls. he's run out there. we're looking for some new polling on this. for right now, the republican candidate, former governor mike brown continues to lead in the averages. that takes us out to alaska. mark begich losing slightly in the polls right now. when he got elected in 2008, it was the best possible circumstances. his opponent, his republican opponent got convicted of corruption charges a week before the election. it took two weeks to get a result out there. we're going to call that red. now where does that leave us? the republicans 49, the democrats 47. we've got our final four on the board. remember republicans now need two of these to get to their magic number of 51. we're going to leave kansas out. look at the other three. iowa, colorado, georgia. bad news for democrats in these, you take the polling average, they're losing all three of these. the good news, they're all within reach. the one that looks like the toughest stretch for them right now is california. the incumbent democrat three points down in the average. look at that, republicans now at 5. they are one away in the scenario. but georgia all of a sudden is in play because of comments david perdue made about outsourcing. let's say michelle nunn seems to have real momentum. let's say she wins it. look where the democrats are right now. now they're getting closer. iowa, the republican candidate about a point ahead in the average. very close in iowa right now. let's say bruce pulls it out in iowa. 47 and t

such a battle, thomas, in kansas between republicans, warring factions of the republican party. >> it's interesting to see and as we've been talking about this morning how red states can remain redt's showing that these margins of error aren't in all play in a lot of these states, kansas being one of them. so congressman let me ask you because rand paul was out there on stump said the brand is in trouble overall the republican brand. just recently this week didn't use the word suck to describe it. do you think that's the perception of what's taking place in kansas and then also on a national level? do you agree with ran paul? >> i don't. i think it's more complicated. i saw the sound bite. i didn't get the whole context. i think it's more complicated. i came in 2010. i came in 2010 with cory gardner and 2012 tom cotton shows up. in two different states in arkansas and colorado these folks are now beating long time democrats for united states senate seat. this is something too six months ago i don't think anybody gave gardner a shot. he's running a good campaign. when we as republicans do that and honest and become trustworthy and communicate with the folks at the place they are

but as of the polls tonight, the average of polls, republicans are poised to pick up alaska and arkansas and even tonight iowa. which is trending red, not tr traditionally a red state one where joni ernest is picking up the average of polls in later days. that leaves states that are still close, including colorado yo, where republicans could win there. and louisiana and north carolina. you can see if they hold on to the seats they are defending, you can get to that a number of different ways. foreign policy is factoring into the discussion. as president obama said on 60 minutes this week, it's definitely raising some eyebrows. james rosen reports. >> ronald reagan used to ask the question are you better off than you were four years ago, in this case, are you better off than you were in six, and the answer is the country is definitely better off than we were when i came into office. but now they don't feel it. and the reason they don't feel it is that incomes and wages are not going up. >> indeed, across the last six years, americans median weekly earnings adjusted for inflation suffered a 4% decline in purchasing power. the economy has assuredly improved. but econo

bias.is a selection democrats are defending all of these red state -- red state democrats, so they are in a bad position. maybe more important or at least equally asimportant is the political environment. the big topic for months now has been things like isis and ebola. i have written at the daily caller -- i have a theory that this reminds me of matt lewis' hierarchy of needs which is the ourhological principle, primal needs for security and safety and food. the first things you need to satisfy. once you get past that you can worry about things like self-actualization. right now is a situation where republicans are benefiting greatly from people worrying about their primal needs. if you worry about surviving, if you are going to live, you don't worry if the government will provide you with taxpayer-funded birth-control. democrats do better when things seem fine. -- the media is helping a lot, too, but republicans are highlighting these rate concerns and their benefiting greatly. the same mom who is a security mom -- the war on women soccer mom could be, security -- could become a security mom if the environment changes. trying to do the same thin

as an independent, democrat rik weiland and conservative independent candidate gordon howie. >>> rick weiland is running in a red state, one of the most liberal campaigns in 2014. and not just in a redry. he's running on a plat tomorrow photo expand medicaid, minimum wage and even expand the program. david weiland sought out and run the endorsement of elizabeth warren. the latest polling has weiland at 2728% with no one in the race. it is possible a candidate like rick weiland could ride a progressive race to victory. joining me now is rick weiland. mr. weiland, how is it going up there? how are things looking? >> i think it's looking great, chris. i just came off the campaign trail for this interview. i hit another half a dozen towns in my state. we're out there talking to the voters and i think they're will being. i think they're fed up with a dysfunctional government. i've been talking about how big money has gotten in the way of good, public policy. and i think the voters are ready for some change here come november 4th. >> so a big part of your situation has to do with the fact that you've got a four way race and no runoff. and that is part of the reason that i think you've go

some of these red states or quasi red states and fix it as quick as they could because they've got this terrible political noose around their neck that was created by all of this. that is not a positive development, that is not a wonderful thing. it's a god awful mess, and they did it. and half of them are going to fix it and half of them aren't going to fix it. and you've got one heck of a burden. >> but the next day, congress could act and give them a different authority. to basically say we're going to -- >> who is going to give them a different authority? >> congress to say for the next -- >> congress. the congress. >> the house of representatives. so here's the thing. >> has a point. has a point here. the high risk pool idea is not controversial. republicans like that. >> wait. we're talking about political movement. let me tell you this, if you were in the house and i was in the house, we would have a chance. we're not. so what's going to happen is that the people who wanted to kill obamacare the whole time are going to say, hey, we finally got a stake in the vampire's heart. we've got to kill it. and the other ones are going to say, oh, my gosh, i lost 600,000 covered

red states. the red state democrats, so they're in a bad position. maybe more important are at least equally asmportant is the politically barbara. we are heading into election with a big topic for months now has been things like isis and then ebola. so i have written at the daily call to provide a theory that this reminds me of matt lewis hierarchy of needs, which is a psychological principle, which everybody learns in psych one of one but essentially means that our sort of primal need for security and safety and food, the first thing you need to satisfy. once you get past that you can start to worry about things like self-actualization. i would argue over having happen right now is a situation where republicans are benefiting greatly from people worrying about their primal needs. if you have to worry about surviving, if you're going to live, you are not going to worry about whether not the government will provide you with taxpayer-funded birth control, for example. democrats tend to do better when things are, when things seem fine to republicans i think our honestly sort of playing helping hy