joining us richard alan, director of technological lab at uc berkeley. >> good to be with you.sting to look at earthquake forecasting as we are watching a major coast in the eastern united states. is forecasting an earthquake similar? >> very similar that we sort of known on any given day there's a chance of an earthquake and associate a probability with that. when we have a swarm like this it increases the likelihood. same thing as hurricane out in the ocean and we are trying to predict and likelihood that it will hit a coastal city. same idea, we are trying to look into the future and come with a likelihood. jenna: what about that was notable? >> this is a small swarm, a few hundred earthquake, the largest 2.3 but down in sea, very close to san andreas. there's a lot of activity close to a big and increases the likelihood and that's what gets us alarmed. jenna: walk us through the numbers. the likelihood of an earthquake on any given day is what? >> 7 days, in a 7-day period a likelihood of big earthquake is 1 and 6,000. jenna: and so this forecast suggested a heightened aler