let's bring in a is as bad as we fear, richard bernstein. so, now, i wonder how you process all of that -- which i just said, which points to maybe things that are a little better than had been expected up against your thought that interest rates are actually going to go higher and stay there longer than the consensus. >> yeah, well, tyler, you almost answered your own question if things aren't as bad as people think, the natural corollary to that should be that the fed will be raising rates higher than people think the reason that people believe that the fed has to pivot to use the word of the day is that they believe that the economy is on the precipice of some serious economic slowdown, recession or not recession. you know, the data is slowing. of course, we know that but it is hard to argue that the economy is on the precipice of some toe curling recession. >> so, a good relatively speaking, a better than anticipated economy actually gives the fed the cover it might need to raise rates higher to absolutely crush inflation >> i think that

. >> so richard bernstein advisers tweeted out something very interesting to me, peter, today.mber what happened to texas real estate during the energy bust in the 1980s, right we saw a real downturn there so what is happening in silicon valley and those sort of formerly hot housing markets we're seeing the layoffs begin we're seeing a contraction in these sorts of businesses, these growthy businesses, even in the more established businesses like a meta, we're seeing job cuts. so what happens in those markets, particularly as mortgage rates are above 7%? i mean, it almost seems like people may leave their homes who are the buyers of a home in an area where the jobs are not few and far between, but they're not really hiring at this point and your mortgage rate is 7% >> right it's going to take to your point much lower prices. in the aggregate, housing all in is about 15 to 18% of the u.s. economy. we saw what we heard from walmart and target, one of the areas of weakness where things related to the home. and your point about that particular market being weak, yeah, we're going s

joining us, richard bernstein adviser dan suzuki dan, let me start with you i know you've been keepingse of the summer, but now we've got obviously the lines of communication open between the president and xi you've got zelenskyy in kherson arguing this could be the beginning of the end of the war. not to mention some of the bounce we got last week. are you feeling more constructive >> i guess it depends, carl, on which market you're talking. we've been pointing out that the fundamentals for areas like china have been improving. unfortunately, with respect to most markets, you know, the fundamentals are still deteriorating. in our view, you know, be the big issue here is that profits are going to continue to slow. we think we will be in a profits recession within the next couple of quarters and liquidity will continue to tighten. that's probably a pretty bad back drop for markets. not notwithstanding you can get a bounce that lasts a month or two, like in the summer, ultimately the market still has to reprice that growth recession. i think that's still to come >> jeff, it's not an unco