the ecb president mario draghi and the fed vice chair richard clarida giving cautious economic assessments. has the q4 outlook market looking at a slowdown in tech demand. go to the european markets. 30 minutes to go until the close. again, its flat once was at this time yesterday. internally we see pressure on the banks and utilities. take a look at where we are with eurosterling, absolutely flat again. this is interesting because it strips out the clarida comments from the cable rate. the pound not making much headway after yesterday's moves. this is where we are with guilt at the moment, picking up once again, 1.42. the safe haven in all of this, but for how long? mario draghi dovish earlier on. others sounding hawkish at the theesbank, talking about balance sheet returning to where it was before the financial crisis. no clear direction coming out of europe. i think there is too much politics and economic ambiguity to make significant headway. more positive sides coming out of the trade front. we are not seeing that tailwind come through. brent is up by 1.9% but looks like it will finis

we all bring things to the discussion >> richard clarida, thanks for joining us >> thank you. >> backtion, steve. can you listen to -- can i ask you something to ask richard since he doesn't have an ifb i asked the producer to do this. >> sure. that's okay, i think >> yeah, it is i asked. >> joe wants to ask you a question i'll tell you in a second. >> on the wires it says that the treasury yields are -- i just lost -- >> you don't have me >> i literally lost ifb, joe >> you're kidding. oh, hello? this is a way -- so they say yes but they really mean no. are we going to get him back or not? maybe we'll go to break and come back because the wires are now that fed's clarida says that we're getting close to neutral and that rates are moderating at 3.09% on the 10-year >> which is a huge change. >> my question is going to be isn't it -- does it seem odd to anyone else that 3% -- because that's what he's saying sort of. 2.5% to 3.5% it sounds like he's saying about 3% isn't it weird that suddenly in this world, that's enough of an interest rate to actually cause an economy to break a littl

james, i want to begin with you and get to the recent comments --m rich claritin, the richard claridathe vice-chairman of the federal reserve speaking to cnbc. he said the following. "if you're in a dark room without your shoes on, you want to go slow so you don't stub your toe. so i think data dependence makes sense right here." james, i think the market is taking this as the federal reserve is about to slow down the pace of rate hikes? what did you take it as? james: i will be opposing that to be honest. first and foremost, obviously, we are talking about a broader committee than one single-member. richard clarida does take up an important position in the overall federal reserve system here, but i'm looking to chairman powell for my signal. i have a different interpretation to that from his recent speech. of course he mentioned the fact there are global headwinds but i think he has been very clear since day one of his time as the chairman of the federal reserve. which is to say that he is not going to be buffeted around by the short-term gyrations. he sees risks in either side, of c

vice chair printing clarida on deck. -- richard clarida on deck.d westin with alix steel. it is all about the fed. da speaking today and jay powell tomorrow. alix: really interesting how they will have to walk back a little what we might see in the minutes. david: we think we will know what is going on in the december meeting, but there is speculation. markets, nothing really moving except for the cable rate. s&p futures up by 12. dow futures up by triple digits. it feels like relief we saw yesterday a far thing in the past. not a lot of movement in asset classes. euro-dollar flat. two-year was ok yesterday. we will see all -- how it fares today. david: there you go to time for the morning brief. at 8:30 eastern time, fed president -- vice chairman richard clarida speaking in new york followed by esther george and evans on a panel this afternoon. -- will be for released. incumbent republican senator cindy hyde smith is in a surprisingly tight race against a democrat. let's get a check on the headset -- headlines. let's get to taylor riggs. facer: p

steve liesman speaking with richard clarida. steve is with us kick this around your conversation today pertinent to this one. >> i think so and part of what richard clarida was doing maybe explaining things the way he sees them versus maybe how the market is taking it. we're headed to neutral, but what happens after that is going to be data dependent that's going to be my understanding. somewhere along the line everybody thought that the subsequent rate hikes after neutrality were automatic and dialed in and the fed was going above neutral. what the fed thinks about this is, hey, the emergency rate hikes that were in there from the financial crisis this economy has shown itself to be strong enough to stand on its own without them and let's see how inflation and wages behave thereafter and respond to the data i don't think anything has been automatic about fed policy and i'm confused, scott, on where the evidence is about this apocalyptic slowing of the u.s. economy. 250,000 jobs in the last jobs report they've talked about trade

bonds after the comments from richard clarida on friday.e you seeing in the chinese bond markets? dani: after that meeting in a packed, we had tensions -- aipac, we had tensions cropping up. the tenure tumbled 19 basis points in two weeks. it's falling around 335. we've also seen weaker economic data that has fed into this. when we look at hours, it gets below 30 -- ours, it dips below 30. last time it has this much of a tumble was in april. after that, traders get a 15 point races rally. while the long-term trend might be down for 10 year yields, we might see a breather. the other market taking a breather from a selloff was oil, gaining today. just a point out how much bearish bets have cropped up , the blue line shows hedge funds. they rise for a seventh consecutive week, the longest streak on record that we've seen short positions rise. if opec needs to step in here, we need a big catalyst for any sort of move to the positive in oil. nejra: dani burger in london, thank you so much. and niroj for us, as well. let's turn back to brexit. we

richard clarida backed more gradual rate rises. the st. louis president was more cautious.icials must launch possible cracks in the recovery. also noted governor pockets of distress. nejra: meanwhile, president trump has blessed the washington post, i am doing deals and i am fed,eing -- blasted the telling the washington post, i am doing deals. so far i am not a little bit happy with my selection of jay powell. joining us now is the cio of northern trust. great to have you with us. you say the fed is the central bank at biggest risk of making a policy mistake. the markets have downgraded their expectations for 2019. should the fed be paying heed to those signals? >> absolutely. we fear the fed may go too far. we are anticipating like the rest of the market they will move again in december. whether they announce a cause versus the intent they are going to continue and moved two or three more times, that is a pivotal point for the markets. it is not often we pay that much attention to any single meeting. the risk of the fed making a mistake is quite high. when you look at the

richard clarida does take up an important position in the overall federal reserve system here, but i'mooking to chairman powell for my signal. i have a different interpretation to that from his recent speech. of course he mentioned the fact there are global headwinds but i think he has been very clear since day one of his time as the chairman of the federal reserve. which is to say that he is not going to be buffeted around by the short-term gyrations. he sees risks in either side, of course, and from an economic perspective there are risks of going too fast and you would possibly know about those risks a little sooner than the other risk. the other risk is the one that concerned me more, given where we have been for the past 10-12 years. you go to slowly, you allow imbalances and bubbles to build up. that creates a problem you don't see coming until it slaps you in the face. i think jerome powell is on the right path. i think the federal reserve is going to be hiking rates. the economic picture, broadly speaking, supports that and when you have low unemployment, you have inflation abo

richard clarida does take up an important position, but i'm looking to chairman powell for my signal.ave a different interpretation to that from his speech. he mentioned the fact there are global headwinds but he has been very clear since day one of his time as the chairman of the federal reserve. he is not going to be buffeted around by the short-term gyrations. he sees risks on other side, of course, from an economic perspective there are risks of going too fast and you would possibly know about those risks sooner than the other risks. the one that concerns me more is you go too slowly, you allow imbalances and bubbles to build up. that creates a problem you don't see coming until it slaps you in the face. i think jerome powell is on the right path. i think the fed will be hiking rates. the picture broadly speaking supports that and when you have low unemployment, you have inflation above target, of the -- above potential gdp growth, wages that are not only rising but at an increasing pace, that is a clear signal. that they need to be hiking. jonathan: would you say the front end up

and today it was the central bank's vice chair richard clarida speaking out, saying he supports a gradual approach but diive an exact number of hikes he felt were necessary. mr. clarida d say he believes interest rates are close to so-called neutral level. meaning they neither stimulate nor slow growth. jerome powell is sed scheduled to speak tomorrow. >> the whisi house is pro a way to lower medicare prescription drug costs. in an effort to start he modernizing t government's flagship health health insurance program. bertha coombs has more. > the trump administration already proposing pricing changes for drugs prescrid by doctors under part b. now it's aiming at the pharmacy drug pns. >> part d. >> what we proposed today is really historic changes to the medicare drug program to allow actuallyg plans to negotiate against drug companies in what are called theot six ected classes. >> right now, medicare is legally prohibited from negotiating with drug manufacturers for six major categories o drugs, including cancer and hiv treatments. if a doctor prescribes a drug regardless of cost medica

it is to do with the fed and the comments from richard clarida on friday. today the question on mliv you are asking is, what does the fed repricing signal for assets across the sector? you can reach out to was on the mliv team on your bloomberg. what is your take? the implications are massive across many assets. the combination of dollar weakness and u.s. yield weakness is supporting some kind of em assets. we have asian currencies have done well recently and they could continue to trade ok. that is the first thing to bear in mind. you have got to wonder, is this a permanent shift or are we going to be pricing back these rate hikes? the fed has been confident they want to keep hiking. this probably does imply this volatility is here to stay. this is not a turning point in rates. we are going to be wavering back and forth as the economic outlook is staying on certain. that makes sense of the end of the rate hiking cycle. the end may take a year. there are still a couple of hikes to go. we're approaching the neutral rate. therefore we are going to have a lot

we have seen comments from jerome powell and richard clarida about the prospect of slower global growththey may be putting together a move towards toning down the hockish -- hawkish rhetoric. the also have to put rundown in their balance sheet on hold. in other words, a suspension of quantitative climbing. that may be one way of easing policy. doubt, the fiscal stimulus will fade through the course of 2019. that is generally acknowledged. we will probably see gdp growth, which has done really well, 3% plus this year, which will be the peak in the cycle. we will see growth return to below 2% the second half of next year. i think that the markets are sensing that there is a change of tone taking place as far as the fed's intentions. guy: the fed visibility is going down. it means volatility is going to go up. they are feeling their way across a dark room. we do not know when that is going to be. in terms of what this means for market pricing, and how we figure that out question -- and how we figure that out, are the dots know in use, -- are the dots now in use? why would i pay attention t

he kept forgetting yesterday he's a big grateful dead fan, you know what i'm saying >> yes >> richard clarida a.m that's big especially with some of the recent comments from powell. it's like a test, he says it is strong, no, no, he conceded global growth is slowing maybe he'll slow down. >> he's done a good job. if the effort was to make it a little less clear about which way he's heading >> to be obscure i will say one thing, i'm not taking a victory lap, but did you see apple yesterday? >> i did after you told me. >> you did >> i don't have much of a memory either i liked the dead went to school in boulder. let me think no we're back maybe in the soup again. there's something about china yesterday, too lighthizer -- >> throwing cold water on that talk >> i'm hoping no global warming comes raining down on our heads. it's confusing, isn't it cold because it's warm have i got that right? >> i don't know. depends on who you ask these days what did we hear just now? the seas have risen a foot since grant was president but rising six feet next year did you hear that? >> diana olick told us that.

richard clarida said the bank would continue to hike >> though the real federal funds rate today is just below the range of longer run estimates presented in the september sep, it is much closer to the vicinity of our star than when the fomc started to remove accommodation in december of 2015 how close is a matter of judgment and there is a range of views on the fomc. >> ray hobbs joins us this morning. i wonder should investors be reacting to what president trump says >> it's difficult. not very happy with the fed performance. i think with the job done. my wife said the same to me about my diy efforts last weekend, but i think jay powell has thicker skin than i do some of the dip in activity data is probably not sufficient to change the course of the fed what we've seen from the yield curve in recent times, yields have come down, but that's totally down to the break even inflation coming down. that's a function of the oil price. the market has not really changed its view i'm not sure the fed will just yet. i think we're on for december and more rate hikes next year. >> i get the feeling

the ecb president mario draghi and the fed vice chair richard clarida giving cautious economic assessmentsutlook market looking at a slowdown in tech demand. go to the european markets. 30 minutes to go until the close. again, its flat once was at this time yesterday. internally we see pressure on the banks and utilities.

this is richard clarida. he didn't say it was i thought the fed was ready to go hellbent on getting to neutral. i think it's still hellbent. >> zero probability it's off the table. >> i think there's a 20% probability it's off the table i'm just quoting the market. but next year is up in the air, scott. >> how does it set the table >> we have to get to neutral to we're now data dependent on where neutral is >> imagine that. >> there's the global growth there's the market powell is more sensitive to what the market is telling us i think overall uncertainty. >> and the tariffs >> and the tariffs they want to wait until that clarifies. i think they'll do december. >> they have to do december. >> why >> the reason that they have to is because they don't want politically to look as if they're being manipulated so december is on there whether you or i like it or not. >> they can offset it -- >> the data -- >> i don't disagree with you >> we're not even seeing anything on inflation at all >> if they stand to their w

. >>> coming up, fed vice chair richard clarida scheduled to speak in new york in just minutes. the tuadlines from thawh w t ene rern place, the xfinity xfi gateway. and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. federal reserve vice chairman delivering a speech this morning. steve liesman is here with the headlines. >> richard clarida for the federal reserve in what i consider a dovish speech and i'll get to that in a second, says rate hikes are still necessary. but the real funds rate is, quote, just below the fed's longer run estimate. we'll get back to that in a second as well the fed is monitoring the data to decide the policy rate. says the labor market's healthy. notes that 2018 is on track to be the fastest growth of gdp of this expansion inflation running at the objective. he's checking the boxes here important to watch inflation expectations, he

after the vice chair, richard clarida, sitting a dovish tilted his comments earlier this week that perhapshe record not.ight, stay dovish or ge david: and president trump meets president xi at the g20. speaking of a battle royale. yvonne: a round of golf that is like a battle royale. up for a $9ing million winner take all showdown. a lot of emphasis on the hype about all this, marketing, everyone getting their eyeballs glued to the tv screen, too. what this iss on set to be, massive numbers. let's listen in. >> wagering is part of what we do in the game of golf. it's just enough to make it uncomfortable or make you think about it, that one particular shot or the next shot. >> it is an important part of the game, too, because it teaches us how to perform best under pressure. tournaments, the major competitions or championships or the head-to-head matchup, those type of elements really bring out the best in you and train you to play your best under the most pressure. yvonne: we spoke with them earlier this week. it will be an interesting one for all of you golfers out there, these big heavyw

. >> we're going to get a chance to talk with richard clarida it will be his first interview a guy onfor 20 years he's a monetary expert along with stan fisher, the vice chair. >> do you got to travel for that >> i've got to go to d.c., but i'm taking the train today >> we'll see you here tomorrow 8:30 >> first class >> i don't go first class. who do you think i am? >> joe kernin? >> andrew ross sorkin would be choppering >>> still to come, the markets and your meyon and the ceo of procter & gamble we'll be right back. you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. so, that means no breakfast? voya. helping you to and through retirement. xfinity mobile is a designed to save you money. even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data with a network that automatically connects you to the most wifi hotspots in millions of places and the best 4g lte everywhere else. saving you hun

we heard the comments from the vice chairman, richard clarida, a couple of days ago, talking about pouringlar ready. policy -- dollar rally. policy getting too close to neutral, he said. the market pricing in the fact that perhaps the fed cannot be as aggressive next year. you see that in the bond market as well. what ayear yield, changeup we have seen. it seems around 3.2% earlier this year. seems like now the direction of yield is tilted to the downside, which is probably a good when it comes to e.m. as well. we have seen an inflection point where e.m. is outperforming u.s. stocks at the moment, which could be boding well for this part of the world as well, where stocks are holding their own at the moment. how about feed into the china market and how things will shape up in the open. pretty decent to where futures are pointing to. a shares have seen the rest weekly gains -- the best weekly gains. much flatalso pretty at the moment. we will talk about the turnover we have seen in hong kong. it has been pretty low. rishaad: an economic cold war asia afterparating that meeting in new guinea

lastt encouraging comments week from richard clarida, who not only stated that the fed is still datadent, which had been a question since janet yellen left the helm, and he also said it is close to neutral, which contradict did what chair powell said just a month ago. we heard other fomc participants that suggested that they are willing to take a step back and take their foot off the accelerator. that could be a countervailing force to the concerns of the trade. scarlet: what does this mean for the traditional santa claus rally? you cannot take a lot from the gains today because it is on pretty thin volume. we will get a better read next week and in december. stocks tend to do well at the end of the year, especially an election year. i think the fomc meeting in december is going to be absolutely critical to where stocks in end this year. till in key points to consider. a, thank you. coming up, crude surging the most in him was five months, rebounding despite ongoing supply concerns. will unwind take over brick and mortar -- will online take over bricks and mortar? and tiger woods and

event is going to be the fed speakers, which really will be kicked off by the fed vice chair richard claridain new york. you also have george, bostic, and charles evans as well. that is 3:30 a.m. hong kong time where they'll have a panel at this event. >> all indications from those fed comments, and we'll have some great interviews in the l.a. auto show later on bloomberg news. e bmw c.e.o. and porsche's c.e.o. oliver blume will talk to us about how the trade war is affecting the auto indian and also on the back of a push for porsche. it said it planned a $6.8 billion profit push for e cars d talking about porsche, the model coming out later next year. looking forward to all of that, that is it from "bloomberg markets asia." "bloomberg daybreak middle east" is next. xxx ♪ i am a family man. i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. >> i'm emily chang in san fr

. >> markets interpreting remarks of the new fed vice chairman richard clarida.view since taking the job in september somewhat dovishly. the fed has more work to do but may not have far to go from here from the current funds rate of 2% to 2.5%. >> as of september, the long run neutral policy rate by members of the committee was in a range of somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% so currently the policy rate is below that but it's getting closer towards the vicinity of that range >> he wouldn't say specifically where he thinks neutral is but he suggests the fed needs to get there. there's more work to do and maybe most importantly he didn't endorse the need to go above neutral which some fed officials are forecasting. clarida said the fed needs to get increasingly data dependent. he added he is not get anything particular signal from market gyrations. >> i don't think there's any clear signal it's hard after the fact to attribute any given news in market there's some volatility so i think right now there's no clear signal that i would take from i it. >> he said it will

. >> don't forget to tune in for steve's exclusive interview with vice chairman richard clarida 8:30 a.m. eastern time this will be his first interview after taking his role at the fed. >>> as we mentioned, british theresa may is holding a news conference over the fierce battle of brexit the british pound sinking amid all of the brexit problems wilfred frost has the data. >> reporter: the main takeover is prime minister theresa may is facing down her critics and fighting on with her plan for brexit. >> if we do not move forward with that agreement, nobody can know for sure the consequences that will follow it will be to take a path of deep and grave uncertainty when the british people just want us to get on with it. >> reporter: she also said, am i going to see it through? yes, resoundingly she answered her own question two other quick take aways she spoke about the natural interests a lot, and she said she understood why some of her colleagues had resigned, because they believed in a different route for brexit to deliver in the national interests, i.e.,, she was trying to take the h

richard clarida, we will do that on monday. will see that more through the day. luskovicz to join us from citigroup with a surprise index. this is "bloomberg." ♪ uma: this is bloomberg surveillance. let us get the business flash. carlos ghosn will be spending time in a japanese jail. prosecutors have extended the detention of the former nissan chairman. arrested and jailed for 10 days and now they have added 10 days to that sentence. the federal reserve is stepping up its investigation into goldman sachs and that scandal over 1mdb. the fed wants to know how goldman executives dodged internal controls and helped malaysian authorities raise billions of dollars that went missing. one former goldman executive has pleaded guilty. that is the business flash. francine: thank you. to deutsche bank and shares of the lender dropped to a record low after offices were searched in a money laundering probe. we just got a headline that the board member was said to be raided. joining us now is a reporter from frankfurt. when you look at her, s

if that is the case, it would echo comments by the vice-chair richard clarida, we're at kind of where we want to be. didn't say so many words. none of these guys ever do. english is forbidden at the federal reserve. when they publicly speak and take questions they never answer. we'll watch it closely. we have scott martin and deirdre bolton at the sheraton hotel in manhattan where powell will be speaking. the kind of crowd that gathered there, how would you describe it? >> it is bankers, economist, people, neil, literally have a seat at the table. a lot are sources or contacts with treasury secretary steve mnuchin who our sources tell us has been really working behind the scenes to maybe come up with a plan that affects the same thing, a slowing perhaps, addressing of inflation worries but by reducing the balance sheet, perhaps not so overtly raising rates. but neil, you mentioned with the speech about today, of course the fed chairman going to be officially addressing the stability of the financial system. we expect him to talk about asset prices, sort of the four main factors that h

might say that the fed is on a pre sket course hellbent to raise rates three times by next year richard clarida talked about how they are data dependent. >> if incoming data were to reveal that inflation and inflation expectations are running higher than projected at president in the ways that are inconsistent with our 2% objective, then i would be receptive to increasing the policy rate by more than i currently expect will be necessary. >> note the little tag in on that, he does expect to be increasing the rate. here are the probabilities for the futures market 80% chance of a december rate hike, 60% chance when that first rate hike comes in june of 2019, and then we can't even get to the 50% threshold on -- in october. so one and a little bit built in here for next year whatpowell can do is affirm against that market view on wednesday, but don't look for him to push the pause button that would be getting too far ahead of his committee, his committee meets in a couple weeks, chairmen don't like to be too out front. i guess we are just going to let that run and run until it does complicate my r

and you mentioned richard clarida, the fed vice chairman, his views about how growth could be gettingide when it comes to equities and where they go. yields are ticking lower as well. the nikkei 225, up about .5%. china is also up in similar fashion. the hang seng is also seeing gains. the equity turnover, the lowest since july. perhaps traders are winding down for the year. the biggest loser, given the fact that energy stocks and financials are weighing on the index, with that banking inquiry taking place in australia. perhaps we are seeing volumes pretty low this week. our otherring in guest. --ian markets are up .5% what are you seeing in the trade that indicates some form of threat? >> well, it is the third a veryt day of games, positive start to the week. as you already mentioned, both markets are advancing. what also stands out is the nifty banking index, largely on account of the state-owned banks, which are leading the index higher. the indian rupee is largely flat, but it is important to note that halfway through the month of november, portfolio investors put in about half $1