jon: that was vice chair richard clarida.m toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. china's ministry of commerce as the country has achieved what it is calling consensus in principle with the united dates on trade. a ministry statement mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. have ministry of commerce says the country has achieved what it is calling "a consensus and principle with the united states on trade." the ministry sites a phone call today between the chinese vice u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer, and treasury secretary steven mnuchin. a wildfire that arrested overnight near los angeles has forced 7500 people to flee. -- blaze comes as as it tries to skirt u.s. sanctions that limit access to the global financial system. u.s. dollars and euro notes

hour,ctive in the 9:00 richard clarida.hael mckee weighing in as well, and jonathan ferro with lawrence kudlow. ♪ the game doesn't end after that insane buzzer beater. because with nba league pass on xfinity you can watch the out of market games you want- all season long. and with the all-new xfinity sports zone, you get everything nba all in one place- even notifications about your favorite teams. watch the dropped dimes, monster blocks, and showstopping dunks. plus get instant access to your teams with the power of your voice. that's simple, easy, awesome. say nba league pass into your voice remote to upgrade for a great low price - or go online today. ♪ alix: job distortion. confuse thecould jobs and wage data. in big oil really means big dividends. exxon and chevron will report this morning. and china talks tough. the government says it will take a bigger role in hong kong as the communist party meeting promotes strong leadership above all else. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this friday, november 1. i'm alix steel.

richard clarida discussed monetary policy and bond yields. our current framework has provided the committee with the flexibility to assess a broad range of factors and information in choosing policy actions, and these can and do vary in terms economic circumstances to achieve our goals. alix: joining us is michael hogan,peggy collins, art and marc chandler. i will start with the first thing with president trump, you will be going to the lunch and we will be watching it. walk us through how your team is watching it. peggy: first up, trade. are we closer to reaching a deal with china in terms of a phase i deal? have we reached a signing agreement? the next is how the president will approach the economy. will he focus on the strong jobs report, or where will he focused investors? minds. >> he has a hostile audience tonight and that his big economic programs, tariffs, not be a favorable issue. michael: if i may quote the president, record stock market and i cut your taxes. >> criticism of the federal reserve, the idea of negative rates in the u.s

thursday, fed speak including richard clarida. friday, u.s. retail sales and industrial production.h me for some final thoughts are robert tipp, samantha azzarello, and krishna memani. the president speech next week, what are you looking for? krishna: some color on trade, asterisk and's to trade would be good. basically articulating his agenda for the next year in some form or the other, for his reelection bid. samantha: just calming and easing in the market. jonathan: do we need a resolution on a trade agreement, that we are going to get a phase one deal? samantha: the word resolution means different things to different people. we are just hoping for easier conditions with respect to trade. to keepi think he has the tensions going all the way through the elections. jonathan: you really think that? yes, otherwise, he will be criticized for being too easy, caving before we got to the hard stuff. peoplen: there are many that think this president needs a deal going into 2020 to run on the campaign with this in the background and focus on having a good economy. krishna: they need to tak

keenean ferro and tom will be joined by richard clarida for an exclusive conversation.p next, we will talk more about the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: good morning from bloomberg's london headquarters. i am nejra cehic. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." job growth and a five-month low after week u.s. factory data saw yields fall across the board. asian stocks crawl back after better-than-expected chinese manufacturing data, the concerns over trade negotiations. speaking of trade talks, the u.s. president says the brexit deal will make any trade with the united states harder. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." danske bank hitting the tape right now. , thehird quarter comes in estimate was 16.7, a little lighter than the estimate. the nine-month net income for don skied bank comes in at 10 billion danish krone. it is narrowing his 2019 outlook to the lower end of the range. in guidance is so important this earnings season in particular, and that is what we are getting in terms of guidance from danske bank, narrowing is 2019 outlook to the lower end of th

thursday, we get a slew of fed speak, including vice chair richard clarida. friday, u.s.ail sales and industrial production. with me for some final thoughts are robert tipp, samantha azzarello, and krishna memani. that speech from the president next week, krishna, what are you looking for? krishna: i think some color on trade, aspirations with regard to trade would be good. basically articulating his agenda for the next year in some form or the other, for his reelection bid. jonathan: sam? samantha: i mean, just calling and easing for the market. jonathan: do we need a resolution on a trade agreement, do we need to hear from the president next week that we are going to get a phase one deal? samantha: the word resolution means different things to different people. i think we are just hoping for easier conditions with respect to trade. jonathan: robert tipp? robert: i think he has to keep it going, he has to keep the tensions going all the way through the elections. jonathan: you really think that? robert: yes, otherwise, he will be criticized for being too easy, for caving

we have richard clarida joining jonathan ferro and tom keene. night in hongay kong, 9:30 a.m. new york. david: have a look at the live pictures out of beijing. you are looking at the press briefing we understand is just starting right now on the communist party's meeting. rishaad: this is coming at a critical time for the president as he faces obstacles to chinese economic growth. trade war, rise in labor cost, and that could threaten the key source of the party's legitimacy, which is delivering economic prosperity. that is what we have so far from beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪ thed: hong kong confirmed .irst recession since, september will likely have its hold my beer moment. this is what we have in japan as we head to the break, the lunchtime break. down 1.2, a big mess, missing estimates. 107 billion yen operating profit, we had 129 billion for the third quarter. cut its full-year operating profit. nintendo up 6% at the introduction of the switch light. duesonic, 4% to the upside to a beat on its second-quarter operating income even though it cut its net sales forecast for

data dependency is back and that was federal reserve vice chairman richard clarida.he hour now. it is fitbit. jumping. does this mean that google is trying to go toe to toe with apple and take on the apple watch. it looks like a big ip play. taylor riggs shows us more. taylor: usually competitive market and you see that in the share of fitbit. mid-2015 with around $20 a share. there is a lot of optimism that jumped to $50 a share and in the last two years, they have hanged twohanging out between dollars and five dollars a share. there is not a lot concerns within fitbit given that they are so heavily reliant on a tracker and yet most of the world in the wearables business has moved to incorporating the health care aspect of it. this is a company that his soul reliant on tracking devices and they are trying to make that shift as well in order to compete in the really competitive environment. i want to take a look at where fitbit fits. they have a 12% market share according to data that we have from gartner and idc. maintain that, you could see sales rise to around $95

richard clarida shared his thoughts at the end of an eventful week. >> we have ongoing growth in the. we have inflation near our objective. the economy is in a very good place. we characterize growth as moderate right now. the global economy has been slowing and that is a factor. but the u.s. economy is very resilient, and these are good numbers. both the gdp number in the labor market numbers have been on the upside. >> those numbers, those gdp numbers, are they politically acceptable to this nation? it is great for economists like you to talk about 1.9% as a center tendency, but is that politically acceptable? >> i will not get into the politics. our job at the fed, we have a dual mandate. we have made some adjustments in our policy rate. we think they are and will continue to give significant support to the economy. and we have a favorable outlook. >> let's talk about the outlook and the balance of risks. how would you describe the balance of risk around that outlook? kurt: >> i would say for most of the year, the balance of risk has been tilted to the downside. not so much becaus

later on, bloomberg's jonathan ferro and tom keene will be joined by richard clarida for an exclusiveon bloomberg's the open. do not miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ she -- >> i am nejra cehic. let's get the bloomberg business flash. peugeot and fiat chrysler turns to small advisory firms for their megamerger, ditching the big banks. the companies are set to split as much as $90 million in advisory fees. it underlines an increasing trend of big companies leaning on smaller firms for advice. firm only has five partners. saudi arabia is concerned mms aramco ipo could drain liquidity in its financial sector. some lenders want permission to offer greater leverage. the kingdom is looking at increasing the amount banks can lend to local investors to buy shares. isork -- wework is being accused of discrimination. a complaint of anti-pregnancy buys has been filed. wework rejects the allegations, saying it has a policy of zero tolerance to bias. and that is your bloomberg business flash. nejra: thank you so much. let's check in on the markets in asia. rishaad salamat in hong kong has more. we are

as richard clarida was saying at the end of last week, that is the preferred stance of the fed. they have done 75 basis points worth of cuts. they would like to see how that feeds into the economy. they would not mind a little bit of time to sit on their hands and see how the data plays out. if there is a big improvement on the trade situation between the united states and china, equities rising, bond yields relatively stable, and the currency markets relatively calm as well, all of that would certainly help the fed's case. we will probably hear more fed speakers coming out over the near term, saying the pause is how they would like to go. the trade move between the u.s. and china is a good one, it certainly makes it much easier for the fed to convince the market that they really want to take a pause in december. you will probably see the interest rate markets completely pricing out any chance of a fed cut in december. what is left of people expecting lower rates for this year, that's probably going to reverse and we probably can ease into that december meeting in a very neutral

we will be speaking to richard clarida, the vice chair of the fed and larry kudlow, and on this programn guests from and blackrock. we begin with these numbers. michael mckee can break it down. good morning to you, mike. michael:

francine: that was richard clarida speaking with tom and jonathan ferro. rick is with us.ing to see this emphasis on the global slowdown while continuing to reinforce the idea that the u.s. economy is continuing to gain steam. lisa: i am wondering from whether your point of view, it looks like the fed has engineered a soft landing, here? . >> i don't think they need to cut rates as much as they intended. by thewdown is caused u.s.-china trade dispute. if there is light at the end of the tunnel on that, the moderation is that the cutting plan might be the next thing the market starts looking for. consumer is strong. balance sheets are strong amongst consumers. wage is growing 3.5%. there is moderate inflation but there is a pretty good mix. it is not obvious that people should be screaming for rate cuts at this point. >> do you agree that the fed should be on hold for the foreseeable future? >> yes. the consumer has continued to hold things up. however, in the short cycle, we have seen quite a lot of pain. a lot of that has already been priced in. it has been consumer versu