what does this mean for the fed's road ahead let's bring in richard clarida he's the former fed vice it's good to see you again welcome. >> thank you >> so powell today said we've come a long way, our stance is restrictive. might not have to take rates as high because of credit tightening from the banks. are they done for the time being? >> i think that they've certainly paused time being, yes. let's agree. i don't think they want to declare victory. it's not mission accomplished. inflation is too high, but this is a very similar message we got out of the press conference a couple of weeks ago. i think that's what the chair wanted to convey, that they're going to pause at the june meeting certainly, and probably in july. >> i chose my words carefully in the way i asked you that question, you know, for a reason for the time being, but what you just said is very interesting to me, and that, you know, june, okay, but you think they may pause in july as well? >> that would be my guess. that would be my guess now they are data-dependent. they've gotten off what some folks have called the

it's good to catch up with you see you soon. >> thank you for having me on. >> that's richard clarida next, we're tracking the bigge big biggest movers as we head to the close. kristina is here with that >> despite the angry teens who veat't snap up concert tickets, li nion posted a record-breaking quarter. i'll break down those numbers right after this break so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get up to 4.20% apy, and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right. i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab. i love to help people understand the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community. ♪ ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪ ♪ the old way of worki

we will speak to former fed vice chair richard clarida duck. i'm with guy in london. welcome to bloomberg markets. a lot of interesting reads from big-box retailers. guy: -- let's pay attention. we will continue to flag what is happening and get more detailed. the retail story is front and center. yesterday was the retail sales data that was better than anticipated but we are getting a more nuanced picture. tjx, we are getting it from target, we will hear from walmart tomorrow. it is common in the united states to talk about leave the gun, take the cannoli. take the desert. it feels like it is happening. alix: like you are ditching all of the stuff, buying all of the things you have to eat. food and drink. it led us to the question, it took a while for him to get but he got there. guy: it is a process. the question of the day, it refers to people dropping discretionary and going to the staples. leave the tv, take the tv dinner. you can change it for a cannoli if you are a godfather fan. the ceo and -- price target of 95. this has been the story for a while. people hav

yeah and so his vice chair richard clarida got an email from communications advisor michelle smith. she sent an email to everybody saying, hey fbi, this just happened and the vice chair just emailed back two words ug, hgh and so i think we did get some sense that they weren't completely thrilled with how things going down, but they really worked hard not let that seep out too much. the moment it was obvious that they unhappy, but they really didn't think that if they showed sort any resistance or i think any sense of bowing it would be really bad fed independence. and there's this real belief that you need to be independent from the white house in order to set good policy. the federal reserve. so we're going through the characters. lael brainard in the news lately. she's now joe, top white house economic adviser. who's lael brainard? yeah, lael brainard is a super nerd, i think is the first and most important thing maybe to know about brainard. so she is she economist on how she was vice chair of the fed until very vice chair of the fed until very recently which is why she's relevan

you can get a sense of that, also richard clarida to speaking and then christopher waller at 12:10 p.mo the idea that a pause is a pause and not the beginning of rate cuts? we are getting colds earnings, abercrombie & fitch in half an hour. american eagle outfitters after the bell. we expected video to be key -- in video to be key. coles, the estimate was a loss per share of $.40 and they are spiking up about 10% in premarket trading perhaps because the company got so beaten up before. jonathan: never been. lisa: i used to go in milwaukee when they would visit family. it has some good deals. jonathan: thanks for that. if you want an endorsement, coles -- kohl's. lisa: it caters to people on a budget and it is the lower end of that kind of sore. i'm doing an awesome job. tom: 10 year total analyze, -4% per year. jonathan: they can send you the check. lisa: how much? jonathan: the chief investment officer at wells fargo admit, should i be trading on robust pmi's or dreadful manufacturing once deco what world am i in? >> it is the latter. it is housing, manufacturing, the consumer, servic

but the fact is we live in the real world and richard clarida have -- has been brave to say that.er debt and new hire interest payments the government has to make, does the american house of cards fall apart? claudia: i don't think so. if there is falling apart in the next few weeks it is going to be the debt ceiling. this pressure it is putting on the deficit and government borrowing is not my first order concern. it is the case we went from very low interest rates to moving fast. the fed moved the interest rate up and that was what feelings about r-star was. they translated to getting we are getting r-star wrong. the logic is it is tough to see it right now. lisa: how much should fed chair jay powell pushback about rate cuts? can he do anything to make people believe they are turning the other way? lisa: is preaching to the choir in terms of the high interest rates. there is no one who is going to say are you going to cut rates so you are lined up with markets? i think that will get a lot of support for what they've done last year. lisa: lori logan, the dallas fed came out and s

tom: we've been wonderful to have richard clarida and the debate about the above 2% rate.drew holland horst now. i want to go to the unspeakable which is the three-month treasury bill has gone back to 2007/2008 level so what is the ability of the three-month treasury given what you see it citigroup to go where it was in 1999/2000 to get up to a 6% load? >> it is interesting that we've seen these rates that have gone up quite rapidly as the fed has responded to inflation. that's where i would take the conversation back and it depends on inflation. we've had some different views and i think it's a healthy thing. the debate is whether it will be above or below 2% and markets are expecting a rapid slowing in inflation and investors are little bit more cautious but you if you look at the forecast, they have core pce inflation around 3% so they see it slowing. you will see the short rates that won't go higher than where they are now. inflation will stay higher and you can start thinking about hyo -- higher rates. tom: people look at different inflation measurements and goldman s

the former vice chair of the fed richard clarida and others are debating a 2%.ro policy forward is going to be an adjustment of any given central banks target they are getting back to? megan: we are beginning the debate about that among the intelligence but i do not think we have made much progress on that. some are calling for higher inflation target in u.s. reticular, some are route 3 percent. the fed and most other major central banks have defined price stability as symmetric target around 2%. the academic literature shows until inflation gets 4% of people do not notice it. i'm not sure -- whether it is 2% or 3% that may be more of an academic debate. tom: you nailed this. research out of ec calling sentient inflation. are we near sentient inflation where we are comfortable with our inflation rate? megan: no. i do not think we are near inflation rate that we as the public or the fed is willing to tolerate in u.s. i think it would need a -- to come down nearly 2% target for the fed is ready to be done with it. we might get a pause in june but i would not take