emery slaughter, she and richard hass are former directors of policy planning at the state department. he is, of course, now the president of the council on foreign relations. and ian bremer is the president of the eurasia group, an international risk consultancy. richard, let me ask you, the big trend it seems to me, certainly, you know, one of the dominant trends, i would argue maybe ends up being the big trend of 2016 is going to be the continued weakness of oil prices, the collapse of commodity prices, and what this does in the world. i mean, the last time you had such a dramatic decline of oil, the soviet union collapsed and the cold war ended. what's going to happen this time? >> well, first thing to say is it's likely to endure for the year. the one exception, and you mentioned it in the introduction, could be major instability involving saudi arabia. we'll get back to that later i expect. assuming it does last, it obviously is an uneven effect. it hurts the producers, the saudis, iranians, venezuelans and so forth. for other countries like india, it's a boon. it contributes to