joining us now, richard jones from bloomberg's first word. richard, great to have you with us. the markets and the first hour of trading. , thisbate at the ecb two-tier deposit rate cut. if joe the markets. the fx markets. testified,nce draghi we had a solid 10 basis points for december. as the details emerged yesterday, pricing -- odds of a 15 or 20 basis cuts has risen considerably. it looks like 10 is done. 15 very likely. 20 is increasingly possible. is the rabbit out of the hat. at the moment, they have done the work on the fx. 1.06.own now they have to think about the potential for a bounce in the month if they do not deliver. his expectation playing with a conscience at the moment? which: it is relative to where you are. they are clearly a lot more atpy at 1.06 then we were 1.14. 1.09 get a bounce to between now and the beginning of next year, i think you're going to have a lot of investors looking at that rate and saying this is great. i finally got my opportunity. i don't think it is a highly populated trade. you'll get a lot of selling into any potential euro strength

a judge has sentenced an emmetsburg, iowa banker involved in a banking scheme. 62-year-old richard jones got 14 months in federal prison. during court proceedings it was revealed jones defrauded iowa trust and savings bank. jones served as senior vice-president of the bank from 2003 to 2010. prosecutors say jones forged signatures of unknowing bank customers. on wednesday, a community gathered to honor native american children. the "march to honor lost children" recognizes children that some tribal members say have been lost to adoption and foster war eagle monument in sioux city, and ended at the four directions center, downtown. people traveled from oklahoma city, des moines and other areas outside of siouxland to help raise awareness during the 13th annual event. a real housewife star won't be dining with family this year for thanksgiving. instead -- she plans to be alone. but that's not the worst part. plus -- the avengers are turning on each other in the newest captain america trailer. mary moloney shows us in today's hollywood minute. << (nats) people magazine reports -- real house

let's bring into the conversation richard jones from bloomberg's "first word."we expecting from draghi? >> i think it's interesting. the timing is very important. ever since draghi testified to the european parliament, the market has been expecting a 10-basis point cut next week. over the past 24 hours or so, odds of a bigger deposit rate cut have jumped. we are looking at a 90% chance of 15 basis points next week. i think by the time they meet next month -- sorry, in january, there will be 20 basis points of cumulative easing priced in. i think the market is looking towards a deposit rate cut. extension, perhaps expansion of qe. perhaps both. i'm of the opinion that they might keep a little bit of powder dry for january. let's see what the fed does. let's see what the reaction is to that. what would constitute a surprise from the ecb? there's a lot of expectation that they will do something significant in december. beto me, the surprise would possibly a negative surprise, which is to say they do a deposit rate cut and very little on the qe side. the risk is the

richard jones, the giver a much. federal reserve minutes coming up.for that, the first hour of trading equity market in the red coming back off of the biggest one-day rally in over a month. up by 29 points. you want to talk about these markets? i'm on to her. good morning to you -- on the ♪ >> shots fired in the paris suburb. two are dead after a paris raid. it says russia moves to cooperate with friends in syria. fed minutes do tonight. the dollar rises and gold slumps as bets rise on a rate hike. china's risk. china's whole price recovery xi saysnd president the country still faces downward pressure. welcome to "the pulse," live from london.

richard jones us. let me come straight to you.touched on this theme of the end of "on the move." i can't see how carney can play anything but a dove card today because he has to wait and see what the fed actually does, and wait for the ecb. limitsink both of those are at play. it would look strange a couple weeks after delivering the qir to change tack now. i mean, one of the things they highlighted in the quarterly inflation report was the strength of sterling and how that is happening a dampening effect on meeting inflation targets. higher than 2.5% it was. francine: what is your take? a fed hike is a done deal? is a highre probability of a hike. you made an interesting observation, the dovish hike. because i would be convinced say, it. yellen would is going to be gradual. she will want to impress on the market not to get overexcited. francine: because she is data dependent. james: i think she is more market dependent. i think that is the irony of the issue. of course, it is dangerous. they are being asked to rescue the global e

let us bring in richard jones. and manus cranny. jones, great to have you with us this point. the data that has come in from we were just looking at the german pmi as a single data point. manus wass what talking about last week. i do not think the germans are in charge anymore of what decisions get made on broad monetary policy in the eurozone. the pmi eyes are always interesting to follow. those inflation numbers that mr. draghi himself -- those are for most on his mind. what we have at the moment is a narrow focus on inflation. commodity stories that play into that. at the turn of the year, we will have a different actor. an uptick in headline inflation. does it move the dial? >> i wonder how bigfx will be. i am not an oil expert. i am not a technical analyst. every time i see wti get down to 40 and tried to balance, it does not bounce very much. it strikes me that we have all fields want to go lower and wga -- wti could trade lower. jonathon: manus cranny joins us on set. you have to take responsibility for your own bad calls and

let's bring in richard jones and manus cranny. first of all, the top line.have to get inflation back on target as quickly as possible. a repeat almost word for word of what he said at the exact same event 12 months ago. manus, to you first. did it signal a lot more is going to come in december? manus: the global economy recovery is the weakest since 2011. the european recovery is modest. he said the weakest rebound since 1998 is goings to take 31 quarters to take that peak. -- hit that peak. the german bond market and we wrote a piece on it yesterday. 40% of the german bond market is already beyond the grasp, beyond the grasp of the e.c.b. so the bond markets i think are already all priced in. whereas the fx market, richard, maybe this is something you can comparative to. jonathan: if you really think they are going to be successful, you need to start pricing in ahead of the curve. they are going to keep buying bonds and keep buying lots of them. my point would be it was quite balanced. yes, it was a strong sign that we're going to do more. to s.m.e.'s, to l

a a nker from emmetsburg, iowa was sentenced in a banking scheme. 62-year-old richard jones received 14 months in federal prison. it was revealed during court proceedings defrauded iowa trust and savings bank. jones served as senior vice-president of the bank from 2003 to 2010. prosecutors say joneneforged signatures of unknowing bank customers. several others were also sentenced in the case for more go to our website, ktiv.com. a community gathered today to march in honor of native american children. every year the "march to honor lost children" recocoizes children some tbal members say have been lost to adoption and foster care. the peaceful walk started at the war eagle monument in sioux city. "there's still disproportionate numbers of our children in foster care," said frank lamere, organizer of the march to honor lost children. "diroportionate numbers of our children are being adopted. and i think that we need to be vigilant." this is the 13th year for the annual event. thousands are gathering in new york for tomorrow's macy's thanksgiving day parade. as final work is underway s

discuss the bank of england's super thursday, but decision, the minutes, richard jones and manus crannycurve.ssively dovish if you go after one, do you get bitten by the other? >> the curve is dovish, not nearly as dovish as it was eight days ago. -- toe moved from november 17 two left off. se indds of a rate ri august have risen to about 80%. that is more dovish than the bank would like, but not nearly as dovish as it was. the year of sterling is trading below 71. -- euro-sterling trading below 71. if you get some real traction to the downside, that will not be real helpful to the bank. >> the spread is nine months wide. >> q1 2017, the market is coming home to daddy. today, what will be really interesting, i just wonder, my favorite graphic of the day -- >> we haven't. -- we have it. >> whether there will be a shift. i am not an economist. economists are bashing the screens going, what are you talking about? i will go out on a limb, i have read a number of conversations with people. i have had conversations with -- it is tough. property prices under pressure. people are beginning to n

eagles in field goal range, no, you don't throw that pick off by richard jones.radford out with concussion, as is ryan matthews, afterward, chip kelly said the eagles beat themselves. >> we stalled, you know, i think a lot of it has to dot penalties put us behind the count. you know, where weed an opportunity, moving the football, obviously, you know, couple of penalties big drive killers, those are on us. >> unfortunately we hurt ourselves with some of the penalties. we will assess it, just come back, and play smarter and play better next week. >> so, the elegies now sit at four and five with a season full of missed opportunities, but on this lovely monday morning, you can choose to look at the season one of two ways. you can be a glass half empty guy and say that the eagles are toast, or you can be glass half full and look at the division which the eagles are still in. they are somehow still half game behind the giants are you a half full or half empty. >> always half full. last sunday when the eagles were so excited with the cowboys, all of that joy, eagles ar

richard jones, what are you expecting from that? richard: i don't think it can be. not be over the moon the pound is 2.5% stronger than the euro than it was directly after the uri presentation on the sixth of november on super thursday. it is the old catch-22. i don't think they want to be pushing back to much. a little bit. but not too much. her fear that they laid a rocket under the pound. jonathon: the underlying economy is doing ok. the ecb set to do more. the fed may open up the door for the bank to do something. across the channel from the ecb is doing so more and a bank of england sensitive to whatever the pound dust, their hands are tied. : it is a buffer. it is caught between a rock and a hard place. what is interesting is that anyone thinks that mark carney will go before the treasury select committee -- yellen is -- asizing would mark carney been really go in front of the treasury select committee and pushed a more hawkish message in that case? i think not. strangely whene i turned my eyes up and talked about the u.k. recovery. i challenge that the u.k. i

jonathan: the for you, richard jones. talking about the carney spread yesterday. -carney spread. was that yesterday a lean and into a dovish december meeting -- a lean in to a dovish december meeting? richard: we were thinking if carney is very hawkish during the press conference, isn't that a tip they know the fed is going to go in december? i think you are right. he has looked at euro sterling, he said the ecb if they act aggressively, the euro sterling will be low 70. he did not want to add petro to that fire did the conspiracy thinks that is exactly what he wants us to think. macro that is what he set out to do yesterday. jonathan: jobs guesses? ? one 85 is the estimate. which: a lot lower than that. great to have you with us. we head over to the pulse. for me and the bloomberg team, best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪ francine: penultimate jobs report. while the data keep december alive for janet yellen. manus: the new guidance from governor carney. in an interview he tells the u.k. to prepare for a rate hike in 2016. francine: europe faces the reality of

manus cranny of bloomberg tv, and richard jones of bloomberg first word.emen, i have asked this ahead,n before, the week as you see it on that board, which is the biggest event? manus: it will be the data because the fed is data dependent. i listened to the news briefing. the you? -- do you? it will be the payroll. the ecb -- how watch is baked into the cake? the shock would be if they dropped much more than we seem to think. jon: consensus estimates, bloomberg has done the poll and the consensus seems to be -.3%. but there is a change looking for 0.4 under. what is the logic for that? manus: that is the market trying to take his edition. they have been in terms of the euro and the bond. they're just try to push the envelope, which is what market should do. guest: the only thing were i would slightly contradict you manus, is the positioning of euro-dollar. i think it is a popular trade but i don't think it is heavily populated. i think there are a lot of people in the euro with positioning from good levels, but i don't think we have seen the chasing that w

jonathan: richard jones, have a great weekend. that is it for me.nt to talk markets, i am on twitter. from me and all the bloomberg team in london, have a fantastic weekend. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪ the shanghai composite closes down 5.5%. retaliates. president putin cuts economic ties with turkey as he and hollande fail to find common ground over the fate of assad. and paris remembers. a memorial service for the victims of the november 13 attack. welcome to "on the move

richard jones is in the house, from the bloomberg "first word" team. we heraard from you before. you are listening to draghi. nothing new but dovish. that is what we wanted. >> completely in line with what -- the next 12-18 months. we have seen signs of revival in europe. if you look at credit cycles and headwinds from fiscal policies waning, all of this is quite positive. yet, at the same time, the global environment is not very supportive. china, e.m., look at the impact china in europe. all of this put together means that if we have a rate rise in the u.s. in december, will it be a little bit too late for europe to actually engineer a meaningful recovery if world conditions continue to slow down and the u.s. -- hurrah,f america rises, we are all off to the races. and then all ships rise. it's the currency where we are getting the major response. richard, i want to bring you in because you look at the statistics. and that is what we do very well a bloomberg. we deal with facts and stats. take me through the post-draghi, we have seen the euro -dollar moving, but the market inter

richard jones with the ecb.n stays with us. , minutes away from the start of the european trading day. what stocks to watch. black friday whether you like it or not. post-thanksgiving phenomenon arising in the u.k. have retailers change their stance? ♪ anna: welcome back. 7:46 in london. let's get the business flash. nejra: standard chartered is up against another hurdle next week in the bank of england releases its stress test results. although it passed last year, regulators are stepping up scrutiny. generateshartered most of its earnings in asia. is aiming to steal a prospective saudi order for the superjumbo. they are featuring a new version featuring ideal congestion to carry pilgrims to mecca. this ceo said that he was evaluating it and declined to comment further on their recent comments. sale of a contact lens care division. revenue fell more than 7% last year while the unit overall grew 20%. it is at a preliminary stage and the company may decide against it. goldman sachs has appointed england's new nat

data, richard jones thank you very much indeed for joining us.ming for given we've got the world's biggest get a ring change at the same time. what are we expecting on oil? >> not very much. the consensus from analysts we survey is for no change in the quota. we may see a technical change for the return of indonesia to the group. that does not necessarily mean you can count more barrels coming to the market. opec is pumping close to capacity. there may be a little bit more in saudi arabia. in terms of their strategy, they are holding the course. they are looking at what is happening in the arctic, deep offshore, in canada, and saying, so far, it seems to be working. it is very hard to argue. caroline: oil markets being buffeted by political risk as well. talking of political risk, or monetary policy risk, we've got a lot coming next week. ecb, rabbits, hats come to mind. are we going to see mario draghi do enough to satiate the markets? >> my feeling is that he might disappoint, which is to say, he will be aggressive but not hyper aggressive with

francine: richard, great to have you on the program. jones.richard next.llance is up i am in london. tom keene is in new york. we will be talking about the terrorist attack in paris. we have a great debate on oil. we will be joined by john studzinski from a black star. coming up next. ♪ ♪ francine: the hawks are in a fed rate hike. next up, the jobs report. trading around $40 a barrel. does that mean more qe for the ecb? are live in the french capital. good morning, this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london with tom keene

we are delighted to have missed and richard -- miss and richard, leon rodriguez, seth jones, krikorianand mr. mark hatfield. richard: thank you very much. thank you to the subcommittee for holding this important hearing. i know the murderous attacks in paris last friday evening have about they questions spillover of not just migrants to europe, but the spread of violence from war zones in the addle east to the streets of major european capital. let me assure you that the entire executive branch and the state department that i represent have the safety and security of americans at their highest priority. rigorouslypplicants no one who poses a threat to americans is able to enter our country. all refugees undergo intensive security screenings, involving multiple federal agencies, intelligence, and agencies including the fbi terrorist center, and the department of homeland security and defense. consequently, screening is a long process that could take 18-24 months. applicants are currently subject to the highest level of security checks of any category of traveler to the united states. th

when mario's friend richard kind stops by and he's cooking up a fabulous dish that'll have you spinning with delight. then, michael and carla are keeping up with the joneses -- the jonese whipping up two side dishes the whole table will love. plus, clinton and his bff, lisa, are spilling the beans on secret speakeasies -- and each other. >> where is this place? >> right through this hotdog stand. >> announcer: get ready to dig in, right now, on "the chew." ♪ [ cheers and applause ] >> hey, everybody, and welcome to "the chew!" thank you so much. thank you.

when mario's friend richard kind stops by and he's cooking up a fabulous dish that'll have you spinning with delight. then, michael and carla are keeping up with the joneses -- the jones family that is. they're whipping up two side dishes the whole table will love. plus, clinton and his bff, lisa, are spilling the beans on secret speakeasies -- and each other. >> where is this place? >> right through this hotdog stand.

jones. the is hiram bingham, discoverer of much of peach you, governor of connecticut, senator from connecticut. richard byrd, his copilot, and cora bennett. powell, lake powell. explore the grand canyon, one army lost in the civil war. john j pershing. there was no five-star ranking yet. the five stars were singular. he wore his silver for stars and plated them gold. and frank buckles at 110, the last surviving world war i. not far from pershing. this is just outside the cemetery in the north, i love this photo. buried at arlington are three of the six depicted. the cartoonist. and section k, and this is a memorial section and this is very interesting because there are about 14 of the sections in arlington. you can tell there's nobody buried there because the graves are five feet apart trade this is where glenn miller would've had his stone. lost at sea, 1953. harry rosen, he was a private. what was he doing on the ship? it was the largest death toll of any troop ship sinking in the war. americans died. they were off the coast of algeria and hit by german bombers. .t was a british ship theys hushed up

richard scuadmore. we're seeing the ownwns of five english premier league teams. we're seeing all the national team -- wiing team coming together. it's a little bit like jerry jones, mark cuban and adam silver para trooping into south london to try to win the hearts and minds of european football teams. it's going to be the biggest event for sports in brooklyn since the dodgers. [ laughter ] >> seth: v vy exciting. >> seth, big announcement. we've got three tickets left. >> seth: oh, my goodness. >> so now is the time -- >> seth: only three? >> go to meninblazers.com. >> seth: how many did you start with? >> seven. [ laughter ] so three left. but if you want to ce with three mates, you're going to have to unfortunately, make a tough decisionon >> seth: now, of course, premier league soccer is closest to your hearts. we're about, what? i guess 11 -- 10, 11 games into the season. >> 11 38ths into the season. >> seth: 11 38ths into the seasonon i want to talk about your beloved chelsea to start. a title contender at the beginning of the season. not off to a very od start. >> the team with the best record over the last 11 years in premier league soccer. rog believes

jones. this is hiram bingham. the discoverer of machu picchu governor of connecticut, senator from connecticut, he is buried at arlington national cemetery. richard byrd. and cora bennett, john wesley powell. lake powell. he mapped and explored the grand cany canyon. one arm that he lost in the civil war. okay. adolphus greeley. arctic explorer. founder of the national geographic society. john j. pershing only general to carry general of the armies plural. there was no five star rank yet. they call it six because the five stars were singular. he was above them. he wore his silver four stars and plated them gold to indicate higher rank than four star. and frank buchols the last surviving world war i veteran buried not far from pershing in section 34. this is just outside the cemetery on the north. i love this photo. and buried at arlington are three of the six depicted in the statue. michael strank, rene gagnon and the pima indian. and bill mauldin, the cartoonist. and section "k," this is a memorial section, this is very interesting because there are about 14 of these seconds in arlington and you can tell there's nobody buried because the graves

knowing our clients personally is why edward jones is the big company that doesn't act that way. >>> joining us now richardtnessed much of the raid last night. richard, describe what you saw. >> reporter: we arrived here not very much after this raid began. it started around 430 tim testimotim in the morning local time. there were reports in the neighborhood and we're a 10 minute drive from the center of paris reports of heavy gun fire, explosions and we arrived not much after that. when we got here, police were still setting up according. they were very nervous and very tense. we could hear the gun fire echoing in the background. as we approached to police they pointed their rifles and shined flashlights in our eyes. they made it clear we were backed up. they were trying to get people off the streets and telling people to stay indoors. the main gun fight had already happened. it was a very intense gun battle. we spoke to witnesses who said they had never heard anything like it. they weren't surprised it happened in this neighborhood. this suburb is known primarily for having muslim migrants. many of them

richard, mr. leon rodriguez, mr. seth jones, we are delighted to have mr. mark corcorian and we are delighted to have mr. mark hatfield. ms. richards, i recognize you for your five-minute opening. >> thank you very much, mr. chairman, and thank you to the subcommittee for holding this important hearing at such a key moment in the discussion about the program of very successful program that the u.s. government has to bring refugees to the united states so that they can restart their lives after living through very, very difficult situations of war and persecution. i know the murderous attacks in paris last friday evening have raised many questions about the spillover of not just migrants to europe but also the spread of violence from war zones in the middle east to the streets of a major european capital. let me assure you that the entire executive branch and the state department that i represent has the safety and security of americans as our highest priority. as an essential fundamental part of u.s. refugee admissions program, we screen applicants rigorousl

richard. we are delighted to have mr. leÓn rodrÍguez, we are delighted to have mr. zeth jones and we are delighted to have mr. mark. th that, ms. richards, i would recognize you for your five-minute opening. >> thank you very much, mr. chairman and thank you to the subcommittee for holding this important hearing at such a key moment in the discussions about the programs of very successful program that the u.s. government has to bring refugees to the united states so they can restart their lives after living through very, very difficult situations of war and persecution. i know the murderrist attacks in paris have raised many questions about the spillover of not just migrants to europe but also the spread of vile -- violence. let me assure you that the entire executive branch and state department that i represent have the safety and security of americans as our highest priority. as an essential fundamental part of u.s. refugee admissions program, we screen applicant rig -- rigorously and all under go screening involving multiple agencies, law enforcement agencies including the national countererertism center and the

richard reid we are delighted to have mr. leon rodriguez. we are delighted to have seth jones, mark, and we are delighted to have mr. mark hatfield. i recognize you for your five-minute opening. >> thank you very much. thank you to the subcommittee for holding this important hearing at such a key moment in programsssions about of very successful programs the u.s. government has to bring refugees to the united states so they can restart their lives after living through a very, very difficult situation of persecution. i know the murderous attacks in paris last friday have raised many questions about the spillover of not just migrants to europe but the spread of violence from war zones in the middle east to the streets of a major european capital. let me assure you that the entire executive branch and the state department that i represent has the safety and security of americans as our highest priority. as an essential fundamental part of u.s. refugee admissions, we screen applicants rigorously, carefully in an effort to ensure that no one who poses a threat to the safety and security of americans is able to enter our

jones. the discoverer and governor of connecticut, senator from connecticut. he is buried at arlington national cemetery. richard byrd, floyd bennett, his co-pilot. and cora bennett has either lived a long time or decided not to get buried with floyd. powell, lake powell. he mapped, explored the grand canyon, one arm he lost in the civil war. adolfus greeley, arctic explorer, founder of the national geographic society. the only general to carry army generals, plural, no five-star rank yet. they call it six because they were army, singular. he was above them. he wore his silver four stars and plated them gold to indicate higher rank than four star. and frank buckles at 110 the last surviving world war i veteran in section 34. this is on the north. i love this photo and buried at arlington are three of the six depicted in the statue. michael strank and hayes. bill mauldin, the cartoonist. and section k, this is very interesting because there are about 14 of these sections in arlington. and you can tell there's nobody buried there because the graves are five feet apart. places where glenn miller would maybe have hi