host: richard norton smith from george mason university. he is an author and a presidential historian. we are talking about election day, particularly when it comes to close elections. is there a history? guest: there is a history of just about everything and it is a particularly colorful one. going back to the beginning, there is arguably a flaw in the constitution. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] they did not foresee the rise of organized political parties. indeed, they dreaded the process. and so, in 1800, of every state in the electoral college had two votes. one was to be cast for president in the other four vice president. by 1800, the federal lists around the john adams had to come here and organized to the point that there were recognizable as political parties.

rearlier richard norton smith, a great historian,ea mentioned california and how it had gone democratic. between world war ii and 1992, california voted for a democrat for president once. lyndon johnson. but something happened. could pete wilsonnd proposition 187 which was a restrictive, punitive measure directed at immigrants in califondia what i time whenia immigrants were exploding in california. now california, republicans are reduced to a white party and an increasingly less white state. >> if you take it election after election, and as the white share falls, as the minority share rises, republicans are basically-- just starting out the election-- are losing 1.7% of theote every four yevers. it's going down. they have to work a lot harder and they have no margin of er r. >> ifill: let me turn this on its head. is it a bigger problem for

host: richard norton smith from george mason university. he is an author and a presidential historian. we are talking about election day, particularly when it comes to close elections. is there a history? guest: there is a history of just about everything and it is a particularly colorful one. going back to the beginning, there is arguably a flaw in the constitution. they did not foresee the rise of organized political parties. indeed, they dreaded the process. and so, in 1800, of every state in the electoral college had two votes. one was to be cast for president in the other four vice president. by 1800, the federal lists around the john adams had to come here and organized to the point that there were recognizable as political parties. what that meant was that the candidate for president and vice president tied. jefferson, who was supposed to be candidates for the president had 73 and aaron burr of new york, supposed to be vice- president also was 73. that allowed the federalists to fish in troubled waters and it took the house of repres

host: richard norton smith from george mason university,

the chronological treatment. >> reporter: presidential historian richard norton smith, who helped design the center, says its mission is to examine how lincoln has influenced americans great and small since his death. in part, that influence is symbolized by the 34-foot-high book tower that connects the center's three floors. it's made of aluminum and represents some of the roughly 15,000 works written about lincoln. >> the story didn't end on april 15. in some ways, the story begins. the story of what we want lincoln to be. which lincoln are we talking about? the evolution of the posthumous lincoln. it's like a mirror held up to the evolution of the country itself. >> sreenivasan: it's almost like his words and possibly his life is a poem to be constantly reinterpreted? i mean, over your shoulder are two very different presidents using his words. >> absolutely. nowhere has lincoln's posthumous influence been greater than on the presidency itself. the classic example of how everyone needs to, as one historian says, get right with lincoln. we have dwight eisenhower and franklin roosevelt.

. >> woodruff: we get historical perspective from michael beschloss and richard norton smith. >> ifill: and hari sreenvasan shows how you can find the latest results online at our data-driven map center. >> woodruff: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> music is a universal language. when i was in an accident i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own. with united health care i got help that fit my life, information on my phone, connection to doctors who get where i'm from, and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never miss a beat. >> we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. united health care. >> bnsf railway. >> and by the bill and melinda gates foundation. dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to live a healthy, productive life. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... friends of the newshour. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting.

. >> ifill: we have michael beschloss and richard norton smith. i am curious what you guys think of that speech. how does it rate? how does it rank among speeches of this kind? i thought it was a class act. it wasn't stevensonian but it was closer to al gore's speech we were just talking about than richard nixon's speech in 1962. >> almost everything is, richard. (laughter) >> well, in today's politics a lot of speeches sound a lot like richard nixon's in' 6. i thought it was an authentic appeal for national unity and i don't know what more you can ask from one who has to be heartbroken. >> i wondered whether there would be more of a reprise of the themes of the campaign, the principals of the campaign. >> well, i think whoever said -- i think perhaps it was david that he didn't seem to be prepared well for this. i think that's probably true. now fairly well known story that i have been told by george mcgovern and also walter mondale after the 1984 huge defeat by walter mondale, 49 states by ronald reagan. mondale asked mcgovern "george, when does

that a lot of flaws he had. >> ifill: this will be a good time to ask michael beschloss and richard norton smith for their thoughts on the scene they're seeing and the history of what we're watching being made right here. richard. >> i guess i first of all say the community organizer organized the country. but i also think that david was right. this is a democratic victory tonight. the president may or may not have coat tails but the ideas, the vision, yes, the constituencies if you want to call it that and the way they cast the opposition, i think all of that contributed to an historic result. >> woodruff: michael, what are you seeing as you look at this crowd and consider, it's only i think we were able to call this at 11:15 in the east. there were some people who were saying we'd be here all night. this is really just a few minutes after the polls closed in 49 of the 50 states. >> think how improbable this would have been 18 months ago, judy. the summer of 2011 you can go back to the number of pundits who were saying that no president could get re-elected with a jobless rate of over 7.5%. wha

. >> ifill: mark shield, and david brooks, and michael beschloss, and richard norton smith, and we're going to talk among ourselves for just a moment what we see coming. what are you watching for, david? >> florida and virginia right now. you want-- >> ifill: do you have a white board? >> i wish i did. i'm not that spiffy. we talked a lot about ohio. but to get to ohio mitt romney has to hurdle florida and virginia. and we've really got no real information but little whiffes of information, looking pret competitive in both places. so the romney people should be looking nervously at both those states. >> woodruff: why do you say that, because they thought they would be doing better? >> because of who is come out to vote, the exit polls. they looked close in those state and romney really has to win those. >> ifill: what information are you picking up? >> i'm always fasinated by david's whiffs, and i think virginia is interesting because they had to extend the voting hours in virginia, from normal closing. >> woodruff: based on long-- >> long lines that people were in lines, which i thin

on tuesday, historian richard norton smith said 2012 was not a status quo election and that the president may have more trouble dealing with more liberal members of his party on certain issues than with the republicans. mr. smith joined other faculty members from george mason university to discuss the election results. this is an hour and 15 minutes. >> let it started. we have a terrific panel to deconstructs the election results, as complicated as they are, tonight. welcome to george mason university here at the school of public policy. my name is andrew paterson. am working on a master's degree here as moderator. dr. jeremy mayor. some of us get experience and i come back and learn the theory under which we have been operating. i thought about wearing a purple suit as a symbol of national reconciliation results of the election but fortunately, it is at the dry cleaners. instead, i will offer a comment -- the public was angry about the status quo and then went out and reelected it. go figure. tonight with this panel we have more ways to get at the layers beneath the election results. tha

richard norton smith, i mean, the united states has come a very long way, hasn't it othis issue? >> you know, it has. it's only been what, a little more than a decade since the state of vermont during howard dean's governorship embraced the concept, then radical-- certainly politically risky-- of civicivilians. it's a social movement that that has accelerated at a pace few would have predicted in the late 90s. it's fascinating to speculate as to the future. it's one of the issues, arguably, that the republican party and elements of the party will have to deal with if they are serious about regaining majority status. >> woodruff: reminding us of the controversy that ensued after the president came out, after the vice president came out and really put him in a position where he either had to declare himself in favor-- because before that, he had said, "well, i really don't-- i'm not there yet. i'm not there yet" on the question-- >> ifill: evolving. >> woodruff: i'm evolving. but then after vice president joe biden said that he was absolutely in favor of gay marriage, the president

presidential historians michael beschloss and richard norton smith offer their perspectives on our website woodruff: again, the major developments of the day: president obama returned to washington after winning the electoral college, the popular vote and a second term. and wall street plunged over worries that washington won't be able to avoid the fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts at year's end. the dow industrials lost more than 300 points. it turns out the presidential oddsmakers were right, just as our economics correspondent reported. hari sreenivasan has the details. >> sreenivasan: on making sense, paul solman reports on the presidential prediction markets and how close they actually came to calling the results. and take a closer look at the all that and more is on our website newshour.pbs.org. judy? >> woodruff: and that's the "newshour" for tonight. on thursday, we'll look at the coming power shift for china's leadership. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. we'll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. thank you and good night. major funding for the

host: richard norton smith from george mason university, an author and presidential historian. tonight at 8:00, your chance to see the election results as they watch and engage starting at 8: 00, not on the results of the presidential election but the senate, house, and governor's race. victory and concession speeches as well. and your reactions as you watch tonight and fold. watch it on c-span starting at 8:00, and you can tune into c- span radio and you can monitor on our website. and by the way, c-span.org is the place where you can look at interactive maps, ballot initiatives, and the other feature is as we go through the night especially the house and senate side and it does come in, you can see how the balance of power ways out interactively. all of that as part of our election hub. go to c-span.org for that information. again, our election night coverage part of the campaign 2012 starting at 8:00 tonight, c-span.org. we are about to go to the house of representatives where they are in a pro forma session today. tune in tonight and back on this program "washington journal