richardson edward jones -- nela richardson of edward jones, and maneesh desphande of barclays are with me. any takeaways here? nela: the important thing to watch is december 15 because that is where the rubber meets the road. that is where we see if there is an onset of new tariffs. that is where we hope to have some resolution on an interim trade deal. we do not think there will be a cumbrian's of trade deal in 2020. there's way too much still on the table to be negotiated. a little peace and a little stability would be enough for the markets to keep climbing. alix: what i found interesting is the eu talked felt like it was like, we will talk, maybe things will get better. there is a narrative that after the china stuff goes away, all of a sudden, laser focused on europe, and it will not be pretty going into election. what do you think? nathan: i think president trump very much has his eyes focused on the european union and its trade policies. i don't think it is going to happen in 2020 before the election, but if he is reelected, i think his second term is going to be looking at german autos. he's going to use tariffs on german autos as a lever to pick t germans- to pi against the french to do something about agriculture. i think the eu's agricultural policies are pushed particularly hard by the french. i think that, for him, is what he's after. it would be a big score politically in the united states for the farm community. nela: we saw a similar strategy for brazil and argentina just this week, using tariffs as a backdoor method to help farmers with what trump has termed currency manipulation. alix: a stronger dollar, at the end of the day, is the complaint. maneesh: i think i agree. you shouldn't want to rock the boat too much going into an election year, but he does want some stability, so he will try to do that. if he gets reelected, i think he will then turn up the heat, to some extent. alix: what i guess i am confused about, is that good or bad? you had a 3300 target based more on china. you have debt issues in china stabilizing. but if you have this overhang, you're dealing with agriculture, auto tariffs. doesn't that they do not feel good about 2020? nathan: i think your takeaway is right, and that is what is happening. that's the conversation that is happening in boardrooms. that's why we are not seeing the investment, which goes back to a oneint that this is hinge expansion in the united states that is all about the consumer. it will keep this percolation of uncertainty continuing area but when you come back and say it is not as great as it could be, but it is still ok. it is 1.5% to 2% growth. people are going to look around and say, what do we do? equities look pretty good right now. maneesh: i think that's a fair statement. again, like i said, ernie's growth expectations are not very great. -- earnings growth expectations are not very great. when we say this is a direct impact on tariffs is not very of stancil. -- very substantial. but the way it is playing out in the c-suite is basically capex is very low. look at capex growth. a bit of a pickup in the first half of last year, but after that, capex has basically been zero. so this long-term planning is a big problem here. that is why earnings growth are limited, but the only reason to expect equities to go up is expansion. monetary policy is easy. the fed is excited to be on hold for the rest of the year, but if the data becomes worse, they will step in. if you look across the globe, 50% of banks are easing, the highest it has been since 2008. nela: trade uncertainty is for sure the overhang on business investment. it seems to be a catchall for everything that is wrong. what is wrong with manufacturing, what is wrong with. -- with capex. but we know these companies had a $1.5 trillion windfall, and didn't do much with it in terms of investment over the long term. we should watch this space, but be a little cautious blaming trade for every ill in the u.s. economy. there seems to be some weakness that goes just beyond trade headlines, trade uncertainty. alix: hang tight with me, guys. we will do a market check and then get to some 2020 risks. you do have the s&p off the highs of the session, although just barely. a weaker than expected adp report, but the market taking that with a grain of salt. in other asset classes, a huge rally in yields yesterday, the most since may 2018. now you're seeing yields up by about three basis points as you has some selling coming into the market. we wanted to dig a closer look at the 2020 election risk. mason sheets of pgim fixed income, nela richardsonmaneesh desphande of barclays are all still with me. with a biden coming out tax that will raise $3.2 trillion to fund all this stuff. how do you look at 2020 and the proposals we are seeing for the democrats? how does the market and a ceo take all that in? nathan: i think the markets, also the corporate sector, are going to be following what happens in this election very closely. i think as we move further into 2020, this question of what will democrats do with taxes if they are elected is one that will loom very large. we saw joe biden's proposals out today, which was something in $3.5 trillionn to range, pretty moderate compared to what elizabeth warren might be proposing. i think the markets would be able to absorb biden level kinds of proposals. if you go much beyond that, i think it could be an enormous ,ource of uncertainty especially if we are in a world where trump is struggling, elizabeth warren gets the nomination, and it looks like she might have some support in congress to