and modest rise in revenues from a rising economy could lead to tremendous profits and show that rick santelli is bearish out there in the american heartland. >> larry, rick makes very good points. we declined three-quarters in a row nominal gdp declined. that has never happened in post war history. there will be nominal gdp growth and immediate ly feed corporate bottom line. growth becomes self sustaining and self perpetuating when it kicks in. >> if mr. lavorgne is right -- >> mr. blender wrote a terrific editorial on it, i have it in my office. >> glad you're framing alan blinder but so far from you politically, it's very amusing. we all pick and choose the people we want to pick and choose from. i want to ask you in the marketplace, if mr. lavornge is correct, if jobs only are at -- what will happen in the stock market. >> it will be a rocketship. >> you acknowledge the potential exists. >> and it goes into hyper drive. >> 375? >> 375, supply next week, probably get a great chance to sell the treasury at a much higher price -- excuse me, you will not get a chance to sell them at a much h

and of course rick santelli joining us. and ira, i want to kick things off with you. rick has been talking about this. we have this flood of supply that continues to roll on. and on top of that the fed's commentary today says things are leveling out. so why would one want to put money in treasuries right now? >> well, really, the disinflationary environment continues quite strongly here. if you look at a lot of the price data, you look at things like the labor cost data that came out earlier this week, all of these things are very disinflationary. so while we don't think we'll see the old lows in yields, we're not going to get close to 2% ten-year yields, for example, we do like treasuries in general, and we think -- we actually have a 3% target on the 10-year for year-end. we do think the curve will flatten a little bit. i agree with rick that near-term steepening makes a lot of sense going into tomorrow's long bond auction. why do you want to buy a 30-year bond at these levels? but really when you look at the belly of the curve, five-year, for example, are we really

thanks, rick santelli. taking a look at today's business headlines, bank of america and the securities and exchange commissions heading to court to defend their $33 million settlement over merrill lynch bonuses. a federal judge refused to sign off on the deal because it did not fully clear up the allegations that the bank misled investors or specified the basis for the amount of the settlement. cnbc's mary thompson will monitor the hearing, which begins at 4:00 p.m. >>> and boeing winning a nearly $1.2 billion contract from the canadian government to provide 15 chinook helicopters. boeing is expected to begin delivering the helicopters in 2013. and barnes & noble agreeing to buy barnes & noble college book sellers for nearly $600 million because both companies are run by chairman leonard rigio. the special committee of independent directors had to evaluate and negotiate the deal. barnes & noble says theable wiz igs will boost full year earnings per share by as much as 35%. >> debate growing, melissa, on wal

we want to bring in cnbc's rick liesman and rick santelli.he majority of the stimulus money, 80%, has not even reached its intended destination. so we're not seeing much of an effect from the stimulus as of yet. do you think it's appropriate, rick santelli to be taking about a second round? >> of course not. but then again, the stimulus plan, mr. krugman isn't arguing stimulus. if he was arguing stimulus maybe i'd listen more. really he's arguing about spending. the difference between stimulus and spending is the government in the middle. that's the issue. if you had a tax holiday and the money went down to the consumer in a non-directed fashion like cash for clunkers, that's why it's a success. yet they can only spend the money in the area of automotive side. a tax holiday, of course, probably would work really well but maybe people would do something prudent like delever, and that's not going to help a consumption economy because we need more of the same hair of the dog that bit us, if that makes any sense. >> steve, you made the point actu

steve, rick santelli. cnbc will be all over this employment report all day tomorrow, beginning on "squawk box" when the number is released at 8:30 a.m. eastern. you have got to tune in. you don't want to miss it. that is it for "the call." >> i'm larry kudlow. see you tonight. >> great to see you, everyone. >> "the kudlow report." "power lunch" is coming up right now. i've been growing algae for 35 years. most people try to get rid of algae, and we're trying to grow it. the algae are very beautiful. they come in blue or red, golden, green. algae could be converted into biofuels... that we could someday run our cars on. in using algae to form biofuels, we're not competing with the food supply. and they absorb co2, so they help solve the greenhouse problem, as well. we're making a big commitment to finding out... just how much algae can help to meet... the fuel demands of the world. has the fastest hands boxing has ever seen. so i've come to this ring to see who's faster... on the internet. i'll be using the

rick santelli. melissa lee will be back tomorrow., and guess what... i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. anything before takeoff mr. kurtis? prime rib, medium rare. i'm bill kurtis, and i've got plenty of room for the internet. and the nation's fastest 3g network. (announcer) sign up today and get a netbook for $199.99 after mail-in rebate. with built-in access to the nation's fastest 3g network. only from at&t.

rick santelli in headquarters in new jersey today. love having rick in town. thanks very much. joining bob and i right now on the floor to talk about investing in this environment, charles de gaulle is iva funds portfolio manager along with steve gross, pimco capital markets principal and portfolio manager. along with stephen wood, investment chief, market strategist. gentlemen, it is nice you have to on the program. welcome to you. let's talk a little about this market. you have to even call a one-point move in the dow victory given the fact we have seen such a huge move. would you be putting new money to work in this market right here, charles, or no? >> no. we've been selling -- although on the high yield side. whatever we sold on the equities we replaced by -- we've been buying some of those names. >> why do you like telecom? just from valuation? >> valuation. they have not moved up during this rally. >> what do you think, steve? >> the question really right now is risk reward. even if the markets do go a little higher the risk-reward is not looking very good. the positive

it's about time. >> thank you, rick santelli.less claims coming in lower than analysts expected. but the adp report came in weaker than economists were expecting yesterday. so we're still balancing. it's still unclear what we can expect when we get tomorrow's big jobs number from the goldman. let's get some answers. joining us now is jim paulson, chief investment officer wells capital management. marty, what do you look for tomorrow? >> i'm looking for a down 375,000 or so, give or take 20,000. we saw a decent adp number. seen some pretty steady improvement in the initial claims numbers. again, this morning as well. so i think we're going to be on an improving track. i would be very surprised if we caught a number like we did a couple months ago at 3.25. >> improving in that we're not getting bad fast? >> things are still declining until job market but nowhere near as fast as they were. first quarter average was 691,000 per month. you know, that's -- that's a free-fall. we're not there anymore. >> paulson, what about you? >> i gu

bring in the chief economist at mkm partners and cnbc's rick santelli. mike, this felt political to me. ben bernanke comes out and says he thinks that is over, feels like exit strategy maybe the fed will put on the brakes, roubini comes in and says we got to keep the stimulus going. political to you or do you buy it? >> there is always some politics laced in there. i think nourile consistent and dark. i'm afraid he missed the turn here as well. i think fed chairman ber mack ski right in terms of the economic recovery. >> rick what do you think about that? >> i think mr. roubini was smack on in terms of all the economic forces that caused the credit crisis but the market and fundamentals on the economic side are never the same, as we have learned. >> right. >> i think in terms of mr. bernanke, would anybody expect him to take any other road? maybe a little politics, at the end of the day, a w is an issue. should we have one for the fed? they are certainly not going to predict it's coming, they will err on the side of optimism. >> mike, i want to ask you s

rick santelli in for melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders. running out of steam, deja vu all over again. this has been a hot topic. pete, do we have a definitive answer on this? >> i don't know if we can. if you really look at the volume today, the volume is extremely light. option volumes have been really very, very strong. even when we see the stock market coming down. today, option volumes once again. it's trading 15 million contracts a day. today we barely broke 10 million. so risk aversion has been sort of the topic that everybody's been talking about today. looking at the markets, when you look at the markets, there's a little bit of a rotation, maybe into some of the lower-risk style trades. they've gotten a good bang for their buck over the last year or twoxt y two. you like to look at the ranges. look at news corps, sales near 50. oih, sales near 110. people are playing these ranges, they are playing the charts and so far the charts are working. >> techs always seem to work, don't think, guy? >> clearly the market's got me perplexed

let's get to rick santelli now at cme. >> thanks, nesto we're looking at supply today. one month bill, $35 billion. interest rates moving a bit lower. have we reached point where investors are going to buy back in the treasuries if prices move down enough? enough of a concession? that's probably part of it. i think also think there's a darker side to the increased product tifrty. many looked at that labor report as a big positive last week, but maybe having second thoughts. traders not only talking supply but housing again. you notice how it's bubbling up. moving down aggressively in different parts of the country, same parts we all know about. articles about the ginny, the new freddie and fannie. the dollar down a bit but holding pretty well all things considered, mark haines, back to you. >> rick santelli, back to you. gains in asia overnight. let's take a look. j japan's nikkei up 0.6 of a 1%. hang seng closing above 21,000 for the first time in about a year. shanghai composite up 0. 5% after four straight losing sessions. what's happening in europe? i believe guy jo

reserve programs that would raise the rate at the appropriate time to keep that liquidity back. >> rick santelli, insofar as an exit strategy or not is concerned, it's always a mystery to me what the fed is actually targeting, rick. can you shed any light on that? is it the employment rate, is it reserves, what is it? >> you're asking me to solve the fed's mystery? are you kidding? being mysterious is being kind in this regard. listen. i agree with mr. blinder. i think that, you know, if i cosign a loan for wolfman to go represent an apartment, even though he is gainfully employed and after the third month of the twelve-month lease he hasn't tapped me or missed a payment, the fact my signature is still on that paper is all that counts and the fed's signature is still undersigning. these programs could be ramped up. i do not see the leveling off of the bloating situation that occurred in the balance sheet. to be the sign of an exit. >> that's a really important point. i don't think, larry, that the fed has been neutral in terms of the size of its balance sheet by choice. i can they haven been inc

but let me bring in rick santelli. rick, bonds seem to be rallying here a bit on the weak economic data. is some of this shine from the recovery being taken off here or the expected recovery? >> well, i think that in many ways, the credit markets have been more of a function of equities. they're higher prices, one of the reasons for higher yields. but i think there is a retrospective, readjustment going on. i would like to ask our guest, you know, gdp has many faults as a metric for real growth and cash for clunkers is my example. if you destroy every car, gdp is going to show a big up as you replace them. but it isn't sound economics, maybe europe is ahead of us on that. what are your thoughts? >> well, no, i think, rick, most economists will tell you, it's simply a change in timing. what you've done is basically with the cash for clunkers is brought some purchases forward right now, but it's not sustainable, because basically you're not going to buy that car. >> it shows up in gdp, which it did in europe. >> right. >>

all right, thank you, rick santelli. market, our next guest is on the a roll this year since the march bottom. there it is again. do i need to go trademark that phrase. . the small cap fund is up nearly 90%. portfolio manager of the five star morning star rated fund. which you for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> you know, my incredibly powerful powers of deduction tell me you like small caps. >> yeah. we certainly do. so historically, if you look at small cap performers versus large cap in the u.s., small cap outperform the large cap by 6% a yore over the last 100 years or so. >> so it kind of runs in cycles, doesn't it? >> definitely, these are based on very long time period, most people's investment horizons aren't that long so it is risky. >> in fact, i think you would be hard pressed to find anyone whose investment horizon is 100 years. >> that's right. >> so what can you do for me say over 5 to 10 years? >> so the goal of the tfs small cap fund is to outperform the small cap index, the russell 2,000 index

rick santelli is standing by in chicago. to give us the number as soon as it comes up. good morning, rick. >> good morning, mark. well, it isn't out yet but it is one of the scenarios where subscribers, of corks, get in early. here we go. 63.2. this is not what we want to see if you are a green shoot person. if you are more -- you know, take it for what it is. maybe it expresses some of the anxieties that we all know are out there. even though things improved. the number is 63.2%. this is preliminary august. it is coming off of a 66.0. we see that the treasury market, logically would be rallying and pushing down rates. and we also see a logical response in the equity markets which is a bit of a downtrade. foreign exchange -- >> take a hit. >> dollar taking a little hit. already hit a bit before the number. mark, back to you. >> thank you very much. >> mark, you know, interesting as rick was talking about, rick, appears to be that consumers much less favorable assessment of their own situation. even as in the same various they did say the whole economy is getting better.

rick santelli, over to you in chicago. >> thank you, sharon. supply doesn't start until tomorrow in terms of coupon supply. $75 billion. we have 63 -- excuse me, $64 billion in bills today. $33 billion in three-month and $31 billion in six-month. also an announcement today about the one-month pibills. they will be auctioned off tomorrow along with the three-year. we have a fed meeting tomorrow. maybe no better time because we also have a buy-back today. unlike the bank op england which has increased and put forth its quantitate tive easing again. many do not believe that you're going to see similar verbiage in our statement. but it is a wild card, none the less. mark, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> let's check out asia. nikkei is up 1.1%. highest since october. hong kong's hang seng up 2.7%. highest close in nearly a year. indonesia, jakarta index, up 1.7%. china shanghai composite, lost . 4. and kand ease bombay sensex is down 4%. guy johnson, what supposed in london? >> not a lot. we are trading down across the board, mark. si

let's get down to rick santelli. >> thank you very much, matt.s, we're going to get the final august read on university of michigan sentiment survey. now, remember, what's the streak? you know, eight days. that's like a beatle song, you think that these numbers considering a run of equities isn't probably going to be better, at least that is the assumption traders have. a neat thing going on, wolf man telling me all week yesterday it was april fed fund futures make an all-time highs. when they make all-time highs, that basically says we're going have zero rates for a while and we want to pay particular close attention to that. in terms of the income and spending numbers, could have been worse. of course, we see that treasury rates have crept up a bit. some of the highest levels in the week, on a week where we're supposed to see mostly buying. remember, this is the second to last day of the month. adjustments probably coming today in treasuries but many markets. mark haines, back to you. >> thank you. >>> it's been a lot of trading action in stock

you will lose weight. >>> rick santelli here. august consumer confidence, hold on to your seats, 54.1. that's from an upwardly revised july. originally reported under 47. now 47.4. spectacular move. hey, can 5,000 surveys be wrong on this one? i can tell you that the psyche of america seems to be highly correlated with the price of the dow. having said that, this is a good number. we want to pay particularly close attention to the behavior of interest rates here, especially in front of 99 billion in supply. 42 billion of which of course are 2-year notes. >>> home prices rising. ben bernanke, reappointed or will be, he still has to be confirmed, not much problem expected there. let's start with bernanke and john harwood in washington. >> mark, barack obama told everybody he wasn't going to make news on his vacation. that turned out to be wrong. and it has something to do with that consumer confidence number that rick santelli just told us about because obama doesn't want to interrupt the positive feeling about the economy. he said

rick santelli will have more of them. oil prices though up. we wanted to highlight this on this down day. down 2%. we had been right around 65%. we're off the low of the session. none the less, this is concern about the economic recovery. and also, the new concern, it is the middle of august, mark. that's the heat of hurricane season. we're watching the radar closely. tropical storm claudette. remaining well clear of the gulf of mexico, as you can say the gulf of mexico not anywhere near the key oil installations. first hurricane of the season in the works. bill racing through the atlantic oceans towards the caribbean islands and expected to become strong. bill. >> is there -- there must be a different naming -- >> for boys and girls? >> i mean, claudette tape firca and bill came second? >> i don't know. investigate. >> let's find out how this morning's news is playing out in premarket action. everybody is standing by to bring you up to date, starting with cool breeze here at the big board, bob? >> good morning, mark. futures are weak but off

rick santelli is in the chair with the gang. "power lunch" is back in two minutes. [ engine revving ] [ engine powers down ] gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz. well, the price went down, so you're all getting a check thanks. for the difference. except for you -- you didn't book with orbitz, so you're not getting a check. well, i think we've all learned a valuable lesson today. good day, gentlemen. thanks a lot. thank you. introducing hotel price assurance, where if another orbitz customer books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically. >>> the dow was up five days in a row, 9600 earlier on in the pile of the economic -- several pieces of economic data that were positive. ben bernanke getting reappointed. nasdaq and s&p in positive territory, as well. some of the most widely clicked stocks, citigroup, bank of america, ge, our parent company, fannie mae and freddie mac. >> so what does mr. bernanke's reappointment mean to the markets overall of. let's talk to our "power lunch" task f

for now, rick santelli is standing by for us. rick? >> rebecca, you hit it. when we talk about the dollar on this trading floor, pretty much half the participants think the equity have a correction, that's a dollar friendly. fiscal picture and the issues, of course, of the day are damaging to the dollar in the big term. hence, we kind of make our own energy crisis to some extent because of the dollar denominated aspect. as far as interest rates, what a wild week. basically we're highly unchanged from yesterday. but on the week, yields are down massively, especially in the longer. look at 30-year bond, it's down 21 basis points on the week. think about that. we have lots of supply. we've had certain numbers, mostly manufacturing doing better. treasuries are pricing as though they are a bit pessimistic about things on the economic landscape. mark, back to you. >> mied picture in asia overnight. japan's nikkei lost 1.4%. hong kong, down 0.6. china's shanghai composite gained 1.7%. on top of 4 1/2% the day before. india's bombay sensex up 1 1/2%. guy johnson, wha

let's bring in rick santelli. rick, i know they miss you. >> i missing there. >> the richter. >> what's the bet? you heard about the "w" call. >> when you were a kid you used to draw those seagulls, kind of sweeping vs. what i think is right now you have the left side of the sweeping v, the bottom, of course, in february, whether it was 676 in the s&ps or 6,500 in the dow. i think connecting these two vs, you know, is the "w" idea but i think there will be a lot of nice in the middle. the momentum in stocks, they continue to trade as though they're on prozac, and that could happen for a couple more months. >> rick, what's taking your seagull, you know, into this elegant flight pattern suddenly? it doesn't seem to me, certainly why is roubini carrying it onboard? are you excited? what changed? >> mr. greenspan was the maestro at one point but looking in the rear view mirror not so much anymore. i think we're in a pure and simple inventory cycle, and different countries are going to have different parts of the cycle.

and from the cme group in chicago, our own rick santelli. rick, what was the reaction to the number, and what do you think the guys around you say is going to happen now? >> it was huge news, and we're not sure what the outcome is going to be. today we saw the dollar respond like stock in the country on better data and improved. this is a far cry from what has been the model. >> rick, who told you that last night? rick, who mentioned that? >> we're also talking about what the dollar will do with the 150,000 number, that's not important. >> we talked last night. i said, if the number beats the street, the dollar is going to go up, not down. >> you were ahead of your time, larry, because it has been a flight to safety trait. that is important to watch mainly because the ecb and the bank of england were pessimistic. we need to pay attention. where do you think the three-year lows closed last week, they're at $3.86. >> $3.50. >> so it's twofold. dollar not flight to safety related. but exit to flight to safety, big selloff. >> can i stay with thi

. >> rick santelli in chicago, he is hopping mad about something or other. we have to bring him in. i hear him in my ear. what are you mad about? >> i think guy adami hit on something. we see the company like ford probably isn't sustainable because of what the chair woman said. we are pulling from future. but it is voodoo economics. let's face it. if i 3 phone and break the screen, he will buy a new screen. it is the broken glass theory. what is even worse, gang, is that these old cars, somebody could have use them. they're being destroyed. not only the engines, the parts, the tires. the whole thing. a pay roll tax holiday would have been better. why do we think the government should dictate where the money goes? it makes it down to the people. but they're into the car market. maybe they would have bought more school supplies. maybe they would have bought a washing machine. the allocation of capital should have been done through pay roll tax holidays. it would have been better. what do wets? do you agree with that? >> over the last couple days, when you look at ford, you look at toy

rick santelli. and we are looking at this market going back and forth, negative, positive territory. not a lot of direction. let's bring in don schreiber, president, ceo of wbi. and of course our guest haute host paul jacobs. you've got more than 300 million under management at this point. how are you investing in this environment? >> high-end dividend paying stocks that are great values. we're looking for values in a market that we think is pretty fully valued at 17 times earnings on the s&p. what we want to do is find those stocks -- maybe take some profits in stocks that we already have made a lot of money in this year and get a little more defensive and find the value. and one of the things we looked at recently and we have a number of them-r defense companies. because the u.s. government's a pretty good consumer right now and we think their revenue and their earnings are going to look really good going forward and those companies haven't moved. so there is some up side potential. >> you also ow

the dollar weakness is certainly helping to keep oil prices -- rick santelli is standing by in chicago. rick, we got those good numbers on services out of the uk and the euro, really helping to keep the dollar weaker today. >> it seems as though all pressures from different economies, no matter how much better or worse you think they are, handy capping them, the dollar seems to be under pressure, reversed some of the early gains, but the big news today is treasuries. $23 billion tens, and $15 billion 30s, grand total is $75 billion, $4 billion more than the last quarterly refunding, record size, and we are replacing a net number. that's $75 billion $14.1 billion in actual new money considering the falloff and the maturing issues. one last point to make quukly here, november we'll find out how many more tips are going to be auctioned. mark, back to you. >> thank you, rich. >>> up next, the faber report. >> plus, before he testifies at the cftc hearing, a hedge fund manager, mike masters will join us on speculation in the oil market, and word on the street, buzz beyond, as we springboard

rick santelli. melissa lee will be back tomorrow. game after 50, i switched to a complete multivitamin with more. only one a day men's 50+ advantage... has gingko for memory and concentration. plus support for heart health. that's a great call. one a day men's.

. >> rick santelli on the floor of the cme group. tune in tomorrow for june factory orders.actory orders need to be positive, but they're looking for a negative number. tune in, 10:00 eastern. >>> i'm steve liesman at cnbc global headquarters, where tomorrow we're watching for the adp unemployment report. economists look for a decline of 350,000, a marked improvement from the decline of 470,000 in the prior month, and the hope is that this continues into friday's overall payroll number. >>> i'm matt nesto. be watching for a busy day in earnings central. tomorrow, proctor and gamble, devon energy, transocean and baker huge. a wild card to watch will be orbit th orbit. then after the close, cisco, prudential and news corp. >> we're going to end the show with some empty calories here. the playmates at the playboy mansion are getting a new neighbor. founder hugh hefner has sold his private residence next door to the iconic playboy mansion for $18 million. of course, in this tough housing market that was $10 million below the original asking price. according to reports, the lucky

don't not miss that. >>> rick santelli was kind enough to fill in for me when i'm away next week. guest host. if you have any question for rick on the hot-button issues from taxes to debt to health care reform, send us a link to your youtube video question. don't forget to wear clothes and proper language. perhaps we can put it on air. also you can send us an e-mail. >>> coming up next, we grill the traders on some trades gone cold. tell you what the next moves should be on that stock. back after. ♪ >>> as the volatile chinese stock market kept some investors on the edge of their seats, our traders tried to keep their eye on the balls and be quicker than the ticker. >> anadarko, they're still cash rich. they can continue the offshore drilling and they still have a lot of onshore production in nat gas. >> the governor drilling deep for a winning trade after announcing that they had found a new deep water oil discovery in the gulf of mexico, the stock shot up 8%. >> children's place, they put an end to the proxy fight. the stock goes up three bucks. time to say good-bye. >>> the cha

moments away, rick santelli on what to sell off this week. later a chart signal batting 100% so far. not too bad. first let's get to the word on the street. right now, not too bad in terms of the pause. expected i would think because of the fed meeting which is the big event later this week. >> at 30 basis points down today after up 2.3% last week with a lot of people calling for a lot worse is fine. we'll talk about some pain in the mining sector but across the board things were evenly spread out. not a bad place to be picking stocks financials did decently today. we got the bkx finishing slightly higher. >> we'll talk about financials and goldman sachs. that's the one that didn't perform today but some did. one of the names i like, raymond james. i think that stock got ahead of itself. that's a great play but a stock up from 14 to 22.5. we've liked it for a while. i don't love it up here especially if the tape is going to move lower which i think it might. >> the market has a lot ahead of itself. you have the fomc meeting in the next 48 hou

don't not miss that. >>> rick santelli was kind enough to fill in for me when i'm away next week. n the hot-button issues from taxes to debt to health care reform, send us a link to your youtube video question. don't forget to wear clothes and use proper language. perhaps we can put it on air. also you can send us an e-mail. >>> coming up next, we grill the traders on some trades gone cold. tell you what the next moves should be on that stock. back after this. ♪ (announcer) this is nine generations of the world's most revered luxury sedan. this is a history of over 50,000 crash-tested cars... this is the world record for longevity and endurance. and one of the most technologically advanced automobiles on the planet. this is the 9th generation e-class. this is mercedes-benz. - oh, come on. - enough! you get half and you get half. ( chirp ) team three, boathouse? ( chirp ) oh yeah-- his and hers. - ( crowd gasping ) - ( chirp ) van gogh? ( chirp ) even steven. - ( chirp ) mansion. - ( chirp ) good to go. ( grunts ) timber! ( chirp ) boss? what do we do with the shih-tzu? - ( crowd ga

along with jeffrey davis, chief investment officer with lee munder and cnbc's own rick santelli. what is the sentiment as relates to the dollar down in the pits? >> well, i think the sentiment is this, that they believe, traders, that many of the medicinal issues at stake in how the world economy's going to recover aren't going to be dollar-friendly. but the equity correction we're seeing is dollar-friendly, and that is what they're concentrating on. they're not really as bullish the dollar. they're just quite bearish from these levels, the bounce that we've experienced the last month and a half in equities. >> tony dwyer, are you recommending taking some cash off the table in the face of this decline and looking at currencies, in particular the dollar? how do you see it?? >> no, maria, i think ultimately we're going to be entering a period of probably slower than historical growth, especially relative to the '90s. i do think we will get groebl growt global growth and there's not a single macroeconomic indicator i can find that hasn't kind of hooked positive on a second derivativ

let's go to chicago and rick santelli. >> thanks very much, scott. indeed if we look at the credit chatter, not only capping off this week but looking ahead to next week, there's some interesting things to be aware of. the first is no coupon supply next week. i know i'm oversimplified, but for the most part it's every other week. so we had it this week. nothing next week. and the week after will be the cycle where we go 3s, 5s, and 7s. but one thing we do have next week is a lot of data. you know, we're going to see the other inflation number. we're going to see housing starts, permits, philly fed, empire, all these will be key if for more important keys that the european numbers have turned a bit better. their gdp in all the papers today turned a bit better. that's going to put some onus of trying to perform on the dollar, especially if the u.s. data trends the way it has been. it has nts been spectacular, whether it's retail sales or as we saw even with good numbers industrial production, past utilization, it didn't make a big difference. one other

joining us to discuss is todd collins, vice president at mf global and cnbc's rick santelli, steve saying with us. todd, let me get to you first. what did you think about bernanke's comments? do you agree? >> yes, i do agree. i think we are emerging from this global recession, but i also take heed to his warnings that we are not out of the woods yet, and we still have several issues to deal with, first of all being the liquidity measures that the fed has put in place, as well as the global quantitative easing policy from the central banks here, the u.k. and over in europe. so i think it's a positive first step, but we're not out of the woods yet. >> not out of the woods yet, which obviously means we're not talking about a rate hike any time soon, but to throw it forward, how much of a disconnect is there between when the market thinks we're going to get that first rate hike and when you think we should get that first rate hike? >> well, right now, the markets is pricing in the possibility of a rate hike sometime by middle of 2010. and we're talking about maybe up to 1%. if we look forward

thanks, rick santelli. taking a look at today's business headlines, the institute for supply management's manufacturing index rising more than four points in june, drew better than expected reading of 48.9. while any reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, it does mark the slowest pace of decline since last august. meanwhile, the commerce department reports construction spending in june unexpectedly rose by .3% to $966 billion because of increase in residential building. analysts had been calling for a decline of .5%. >>> and the government's cash for clunkers program helping to drive auto sales last month. general motors sales plummeting 19% year over year. but results w w up 12% comparedd to june. the fifth consecutive month over-month increase. ford sales providing 2.3%. the automaker's first increase in nearly two years. and toyota's seeing a decline of 11% from a year ago, but sales jumping 28% from june. chrysler sales falling 9% compared to last year.r. sales, however, did soar 30% m

let's go over to big sir rick santelli in chicago. >> thank you. you know, it's really fascinating to look at the action today with all the hoopla, and deservedly so. i was totally wrong. the number was better on every level than i would have expected. let's look at week to week. enlightening. the dollar is still holding on to the gain. still up a little less than half a cent. that's not bad after a decent little hold yesterday. but for the week, the dollar index was at the close right here is virtually unchanged. in you look at a ten-year note yield, this is very enlightening. last week was the end of the month as well. we closed the yield at $3.48. it's currently $3.83. you're up close to 35 basis points. that's something equity traders are definitely talking about by the s&p pit. mark, back to you. >> oh, i beg your pardon. this was not on. >> i thought you were -- i thought you were doing a mark, a big pause and then -- no. moments ago the white house saying that we could still see 10% unemployment and lit be quite some time before u.s. sustain

rick santelli 20:00% increase in inventories during a recession never a good thing. >> no, never a good thing. and you know what, matt, take i'm talking with the boys in chicago in the pits, and they're telling me who's leading here. they're debating. is it the weak dollar giving equity strength? is the equity strength giving to the weak dollar argument? i can't tell you that. but what i can say is bob showed you the dollar index, now look at one of the big components, and there's news regarding the yen. this is the dollar versus the yen. it is off a pretty substantial amount. there's talk that maybe a positive for the yen in the bigger picture, not breaking news type scenario but they may be in a mode to repatriate some of their overseas yen profits. we had a similar program in the states a couple years back. you look at the next chart. the s&p. obviously this linkage is strong. many believe it's an equity leading. seven-year. it was a great auction but not a huge amount of volatility in the fixed income markets. maria, back to you. >> all right, rick, thanks very much. and joining bob

dollar stable but not bouncing, mark back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. hoping to make a big splash this season toy maker hasbro partnering with paramount pictures to produce -- "gi joe the rise of cobra." joining us first on cnbc, to ring the opening bell, brian goldner, hasbro president and ceo. you brought some cast members. >> i did. some tremendous actresses. steve summers our direct here did a tremendous job during that time of the writers strike and made this movie happen despite all. >> that really? this dates back to that. >> yeah. started two years ago. >> holy cow. does the toy company need this? >> absolutely. our business is all about reinventing and reimagine our brands. our consumers and audiences around the world want to experience our brands these kinds of ways. they grew up with our brands an this is a logical next step for some of our brands. some in television, some digital game, somewhere great toys and game, but no matter how you think about it, consumers today are sophisticated and they want to be involved in all these forms an form

back to hq and rick santelli doing it from the headquarters today. >> absolutely. thanks. what do we have going on today? hey, there's no more fbuybacks until tuesday. $270 billion of that $300 billion allotted to buy treas y treasuri treasuries, that's spent. there's been a delay on the sunset on that particular asset purchase program by the fed. when we find out more probably at the september fomc meeting. as far as the data today, yes, there was a small drop in claims. didn't move the market much. and indeed there was no revision to our first look down 1% on q2 gdp. what's interesting is long rates are creeping up just a bit, not much, four or five basis points on the ten-year. and fed lacker, i don't want to use vigorous but not to describe the economy but the hint it's his opinion that the fed may have to tighten before it's obvious the recovery in the economy are vigorous. mark, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. markets starting off with a mixed open. looking for some inspiration after earlier economic data came in pretty much as expected. joining u

rick santelli at the top of the hour.hole foods, an explosive rally up more than 200% this year. so this dissident director we're going to have on, why doesn't he like the ceo? >> we'll find out about that, but when we come back, the "fast money" halftime report with the very busy, rickster santelli. i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football... i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus. (announcer) we understand. you want to grow internationally. fedex express others by the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. special lease offers now available on the 2009 es 350. >>> welcome to the "fast money" halftime report, getting to the heart of the action as it's happening. i'm rick santelli in for melissa lee. trying to hold into positive territory, better th

rick santelli to you in chicago. >> thank you, sharon. the best performers today in the fixed income market, the rates are still higher, reversing much of the trade we saw on friday of last week. the wings, the extreme, two-year maturity and 30-year bond, they are doing the best only up about 3 or 4 basis points. it's the middle of the curve, the inflexion points, fives in particular and tens that are up more. fives are up close to ten basis points. so we want to pay attention in a week where there's only bills. next week we're going to have the august refunding. 3s, 10s, and 30s. no matter how you slice it, the most talked about trade, the largest trade is the dollar. the dollar index friday and today putting together two back-to-back days in territory of pricing we haven't seen since september. why? well, hey, the dollar has no baby sitter. many of the deficits, of course, are impacting the psyche of all those that own dollars. and maybe this continues to get legs because now it has a technical momentum going. remember, they tend to mov

rick santelli, the big sir, live in the pits of chicago. rick, i thought that fed was -- ben bernanke, i should say, not the fed. the man at the fed was has been a student of the great depression and that he should know, of all people, when to exit the strategy of easy money. >> he might be a great teacher at university. he's navigated some rough waters. in the end, i can't really look to mr. bernanke to pull the punch bowl away, for the party is so far extended into the wee hours of the morning, it won't be the lights going out, it will be the sun coming up. >> i got disagree with you on one point here on bernanke. the entire situation on soaking up liquidity. if you go back to his "60 minutes" interview, he said he was concerned about the political will. i will tell you this, the obama administration, he's the pilot light right now landing the plane. they are going to rip the pilot out of the chair, put their own guy in the chair. they won't allow him to soak up the liquidity. >> i completely agree but i'll take it even a step further. wha

. >> and then 12:45 eastern time, the "fast money" halftime report with rick santelli. what have you got, rick? >> it's a big day, the market stalling out. having sellouts a little earlier now, but the data was pretty good. are there going to be trading opportunities? you'll find out from us, of course. citigroup trading higher. john paul son, should you follow suit? that's the key question. the "fast money" halftime report starts in 900 seconds. 15 minutes. i gotta ask, what's in it for me? i'm not looking for a bailout, just a good paying job. that's why i like this clean energy idea. now that works for our whole family. for the kids, a better environment. for my wife, who commutes, no more gettin' jerked around on gas prices... and for me, well, it wouldn't be so bad if this breadwinner brought home a little more bread. repower america. i hope our senators are listening. and you know what, it works. nutrisystem for men: flexible new programs personalized to meet your goals. what's great about nutrisystem is you eat the foods you love and you lose weight. i'm dan marin

rick santelli in for melissa lee. these are the "fast money" traders. stocks hitting new highs for the year, well, they give a little back. that's the deja vu. we had good housing, a lot of good data, six-day winning streak. will it keep up? the word on the street, guys? >> hello, rick. >> hello, guys. >> i missed you yesterday. >> as traders, sometimes you have to admit when you're wrong, well, i've been wrong, but i'm sticking to my guns. joe will talk about the reversal in crude, i'm sure you have some views on it. i think the fact that we sold off as hard as we did. this 1028 level is a big level. i think we're headed a lot lower this week, maybe early next week. >> you talk about the sectors we thought would perform well, commodities, resource names, those rolled over today. it was all about consumer discretionary, that's where the money was going today. listen, you were at the end of august right now, it's going to be quiet, but keep in mind, you had consumer confidence, bernanke, and then the housing data, and at the end of the day, what was it a

the trading floors, we have bob dasani and rick santelli at the nasdaq.ood to have all three of you with us. speaking of the economy and where we stand, the ph.d. called this recession earlier than anyone else. where does he see us now? >> he sees things improving that and that's a good point. they are having an analyst meeting over at

himself, rick santelli. rick, we've got a lot of -- goldman sachs coming out more bullish. adp coming out better than expected, but that doesn't reflect the government layoffs. that we've seen in the past month. where do you fall? >> the whisper numbers are getting silly. every guy at that desk has heard the same thing. these numbers are getting into the low 200s. having said that, let's look at the facts. 18 straight months of job losses starting in january of '08. my opinion is is that the traders in general do not believe you're going to see a shocking number to the upside. however, as we head from trim tabs today, even though there's a big story, i think the biggest story of the week was the huge drop in personal income, down 1.3%. the feeling is that income, jobs, the assumption side, that's key. this report, anything with a one handle is going to be perceived as hugely bullish. my call is 350. i think you'll see a 0.2 uptic in the unemployment rate. but the key, guys, i think you're going to see two months of downward revisions to may and june. how do you deal with th

rick santelli in chicago. >> good job, sharon, it is all about the green back, but let's start with interest rates, look at a two-day chart of notes and they reversed all of the end of the month rally, a 10-year note is right now about 15 to 16 basis points higher in yield. there's a ground we've never seen before? no, it's somewhat at the top to upper third of a yield range, but remember, its buoyancy of how it keeps snapping back to the higher yields is something to pay attention to. now let's look at that same dollar index sharon was talking about. a two-day tear that was unaffected by the first trading day of a new month, it was down big friday, down big today, and even though this is an index that represents a basket of currencies stronger, the winner for the strongest currency the last couple of days is the british pound, which is the next chart, while the dollar index was hovering at what? eight month lows? this is a 10-month high against the dollar as we approach. yes, we approach the 170 mark hovering in the 169 area. back to you, bill. >> lovely. just in time for all of those ameri