joining us now in our "closing bell exchange" is kyle harrington, anton, josh, and rick santelli. josh, you mentioned how you saw a record amount of money in july flowing into u.s. equity funds. well timed or too late to the party? >> i guess that's a function of the individual person's timeframe. but let's focus on what the big picture here is, scott. why is this happening? we haven't had an economic blowup in quite sometime. and a lot of that money has been hiding out, as though a blowup were imminent. in the meantime, the fed has added about $2 trillion, by my count, of excess liquidity into the system, totally pent up, and at this point, people are starting to envision a future where we actually get some decent growth. it's not here yet. but some of the signs are starting to point that way. so i'm not surprised at all to see the flows coming in. the most important thing, guys, is that money does not chase value. money chases performance. stock market versus bond market over the last three years flipped positively in favor of risk assets, and that's really why you're seeing the

rick santelli, such a pleasure to have you back on the show. i go to you first. rick, your jobless claims have come down, lowest since november '07. food prices are actually falling in a new report today. that's great for consumers. and what really caught my eye was that serious u.s. mortgage delink gwe delinquencies a five year low. maybe things are better. >> all i can think is maybe we overestimated some of the down side whether in u.s., europe. but i think we're overprizing stabilization. i think positive things are happening, but then again, time does heal all wounds. and if things were so absolutely green shooting oig, and we're used that term before several years ago, we shouldn't have to use it twice. either they're green shoots or just vines and i can't tell which you. but i will tell you this, it's a circular argument. if things were as good as where he want to paept thint them, th can't the fed vacate the premises. why can't bank of japan vacate the premises and why can't europe vacate the premises from the standpoint of central banks. >> i think it's

and our own rick santelli, heather, you have also be been bullish. allen just said when you see a market like this it gives him poise to put new money to work. would you put new money into this market here? >> judging on the last hour of the day into the close, we didn't see bids, i am not getting the warm and fuzzy feelingings at these levels. i understand you stated some of the statistics in the beginning of the program. this is also the largest weekly decline that we've had in the past four months in the dow jones. so as far as animal spirits in august, they may remain tame right now and you will see volatility and volume, increase perhaps after some of the main september events like fed taper talk or jackson hole on the 17th of september. >> yeah, i guess what we learned today was that it really is all about the consumer. you know, two-thirds of economic activity. but wal-mart disappoint with the guidance, cisco cuts 5% of its work force. so rob morgan, is this market now focused on something other than the fed. is this market now turning its att

. >> we're going to run out to rick santelli now in chicago, get the news on a three-year note auction, rick? >> parts of this auction that were very, very, very good. we gave the auction a b-minus. let's go through the internals. 32 billion three-year notes, yield, .631. the one issued market was trading above .638 and .639, and just by that aspect of the dutch auction we see good distribution. here's where the fly in the ointment. bid to cover, 3.44. this auction 3.21. very, very strong indirects at 41.4, but somewhat weak on the direct which has been a function of many auctions at 14 versus the ten auction average. b-minus. tomorrow 10s and thursday 30s, and right now it's tyler time. >> professor there, b-minus. >> and kenny polcari has joined us, a cnbc market analyst, and what do you make of today's news? bob took us through some of the highlights and lowlights. >> and i think that's fine, but the market is just kind of churning. the macro news won't affect trading coming into the last two weeks of august. a lot of people away. i don't think any of it unless it's a really big mis

rick santelli, what was the buzz on the floor today? >> the big discussion and this is something i haven't heard anybody else say and it's been a debate not only for nasdaq but for issues regarding the cme. and that is, was it a good idea for the exchanges to go public? you think about a couple of comments. scott cones nailed it and so did bob pisani. legacy software on the nasdaq and many exchange, which means it is owned. users that are very high-tech. the goal of the exchange to maximize balance sheet is an entity reporting quarter it quarter. maybe to spend more money on connectivity to the high frequency guys because that's where their bread is buttered. quickly to fixed income market, think about this. we have flattening of 5s to 30s by about 10 basis points. five-year yields up four and down five basis point in 30-year bond. you want to watch the five-year note that continues to fall in price and rise in yield. it is now comping back the furtherest to the first week of july of 2011. >> hi, everybody. final word here, heather. >>

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick?, you know, to counter intuitive because the dollar seems to throw on the after burners at times many don't expect. let's start at the fixed income. two-day charts starting with the five-year and moving down the curve. fives, tens, 30ss. look at how we're getting choice to testing yesterday's lows. five-year already getting below there. the further down on the curve you go the less damage with respect to enter effect issing towards yesterday's lows. so there's a lot of curve wiggles. but the biggest wiggle we want to pay attention to outside of the holiday market move is the fives to tens. affectionately known as the fight on the store. look at the chart since the big run-up started may 1st. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see when the curve flattens the rates go hot. might not always be that way but technically keep on eye on the fives for your signal to tell 10s and 30s. dollar index, we were talking about that. look at these two-day charts. really starting to move. as a matter

i'm going to talk to the expert and go to rick santelli because rick knows the story at the cme groupo ahead, rick. >> you used the trade. the one thing i learned was when you see a momentum trend, don't try to pick where it stops. what you want to do is try to pick a range so you can guide yourself because the market, well, the market ebbs and flows. if you're looking t upside, all you have to do is watch that five-year. currently at 157. 161 is its major area. the curves had a lot of wiggles since july, early july, july 5th. if it starts to trade above 1612 look for more steeping on the rest of the koufcurve. on the downside, under 274 in tens. how easy is that? looking at charts. intraday or two day, the pattern is the same. taking out yesterday's high on the two day. boom, your momentum comes back. hot in treasuries right now. and if you open it up to 620, my favorite place to start to chart. if we were to close right here, 284, second highest yield close going back to july of 2011. put it in perspective. but it's just not us. you know, flight to safety. usually when merging marke

let's hop over to rick santelli in chicago. hey, rick. >> hi, what's going on, carl?al guest, matt malee. thanks for being here today. >> great to be here, rick. >> all right. you know, let's hit the topic right at the bull's-eye. i'm on a trading floor where fixed income markets have been hot, hot, hot. your thoughts as to who is in control of interest rates? when i look up there and i see a 2.79%, 2.80% in tens, is the fed in control of short rates and losing control of long rates? who is the proactive character here, and do you believe that it's going to make a difference as to the ultimate heights that these interest rates gain? >> well, you know, the fed tends to follow. the markets are always in the lead or at least almost always in the lead, and the biggest problem we have right now is that there are still massive amounts of leverage in the credit markets, and as those -- if rates continue to go higher, those things are going to have -- those positions are going to have to be unwound. but the biggest thing is that people have been setting themselves up with big

rick santelli is live. >> thanks, simon. syria is getting top billing.an sense the buying that's going on and it's not hugely aggressive but one way trade. looking into day five and ten, the auction at 1:00 eastern wasn't horrible, about average. but right around that time when our 10-year broke under a key support level of 274, even though its flight to safety maybe not the economy, it matters. very significant. the dollar index is anything but a safe harbor as you can see on the two-day chart. the collateral damage, shouldn't be a surprise we're down 140. look down 2.4%, down 2.25%. we continue to see around the globe all traders dealing with similar trading styles in the event of syria. back to you. >> thank you very much. coming up, hiring americans with disabilities, 70% of those who have a disability are not working but pharmacy chain walgreens is making a big push to change that. the ceo joins us. back in a moment. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my chart

. >> let me get your take, rick santelli on what rick is talking about here. today the macro said that things are good with the ism data. is good news, good news? is bad news, bad news? >> talking about which is which to me is like a dog chasing its tail. i don't care about that. here is what i care about. 271 on ten-year. we are four basis is points away from fresh two-year high yield close. only thing standing in our way is settlement on the 5th at 2.74. we closed at 257 yesterday. we are up 14 basis point today. there is now over a hundred basis points difference between our ten and german ten. the dollar index up close it a penny. yesterday close to a month and a half low. and i heard you say, maria, with had mojo, feds still has its pomo and those should never be in the same sentence. i can't tell you if they should have their pomo. but a tlrader told me today, if you want 2.6 trillion out of money market funds, we need the same data we had today without the fed, it would actually move, and feel comfortable they are trading real and not memorex. >> we wil

mahoney asset management, michael from i-tech, and rich peterson from s&p capital iq and our own rick santelli. rick, we want to kick this off with you. we had a weaker than expected auction yesterday. >> the fixed income market found weaker demand for the three auctions totaling $72 billion, 3s, 10s, 30s. but it doesn't seem to have had a significant impact on the current structure. you know, we are slightly lower in yields, higher in price than we were yesterday, and the same could be true from a weekly per expectedive. i think the big story continues to be that the range is extended on interest rates and the curve is steeper, but it really hasn't gotten out of hand the last several weeks. as you can see on the three-week chart. the big story continues to be the dollar index. and maybe specifically how the european currencies, the bound and the euro, are doing better than the yen is. but the japanese don't want the yen to do better. they want to kickstart their export economy. i think next week from the u.s. standpoint, the inflation numbers and retail sales may give us a better indication o

rick santelli in chicago.st 9. >> good morning. >> talking emerging markets. >> or submerging markets as the case may be. if you look at what has been happening overnight and bob touched on it and what rick has to talk about as well, people are looking at the developing markets like u.s. and europe and saying, eh, maybe not so bad after all. as we start to see the economic conditions normalize, and the fed talks about a taper, people are pulling money back home or putting it to work in these markets and importantly or unfortunately, they are taking it out of the merging markets. and now there is a note out this morning by jeremy zervos where he does not talk about the markets specifically, but in "great misallocation" he says that people are chasing returns better than they would have gotten at home for the last couple of years is part of the misallocation. it is one thing to bet on the long-term prospects for the economies to grow faster than the u.s. which has demographic, and other troubles bu troubles,d pa

bob, rick santelli and courtney at the nymex. bob, if a potential syria strike doesn't end after 48 hours, i believe there are concerns it could hamper global growth. could that have an impact on the fed's timing for tapering? >> certainly could. that's what we've been talking about unknowns, unknowns existing out there. it's an issue. for the moment we're stable. there's a long history of markets selling off going into geopolitical crisis and then coming back as the crisis unfolding and immediately thereafter. so, a little of this is going on today. sell offgoi selloff going into it. a lot will be thrown into the united nations, as can you see. i think a lot of this today is partly due to some of the rise in oil weave seen. a lot of the reason the indices is up because oil stocks are heavily on the upside. exxon and mobile are helping chevron -- helping the s&p and the dow jones industrial average. another thing the bulls are kind of happy about is we've had a crummy month. the s&p's down a little over 3% on the month. so, put u

rick santelli this morning.ention back here where stocks are down 172. we've come off the lows a little bit, but according to our next guest, this market is looking a lot like 2007 all over again. we'll tell you why he's getting ared to push the panic button. that's when we come back. ready . that's when we come back. before global opportunities were part of their investment strategy... before they funded scholarships to the schools that gave them scholarships... before they planned for their parents' future needs and their son's future... they chose a partner to help manage their wealth, one whose insights, solutions and approach have been relied on for over 200 years. that's the value of trusted connections. that's u.s. trust. time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share... faster than ever. ♪ it's time to do everything better than before. the new blackberry q10. it's time. [ agent smith ] i've

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and joe duran and our very own rick santelli. first to you, seeing about a 2750 points come of you the dow since the headlines were announced. is there further to go? >> very well could be. we're saying an initial area of support, around 1,600 on the s&p 500. what we track. another 2% potential down side before you find meaningful support in the market. >> 2%. todd? >> this market is scared to death of what's going on in syria. it's critical grave. put any word you want there. clearly, every trader, like bob is talking about. everybody's looking at this now. concentrate on earnings, talk papering. the top of mind story is syria. have to wait and see what happens. >> rick santelli, curious about your thoughts. a markets 101 kind of a day. the kind of responses you would anticipate and the kinds we haven't had with other potential conflicts in the past. why are they paying attention today? >> that was the big debate on this trading floor, bill. a couple of the key points were, of course, the energy sector is giving a pretty good he

rick santelli in chicago, bob, was today's economic data good enough for the fed to move ahead with the -- i'm going to call it the stimulus process. what do you think? >> it is kind of boorish to use the t word. i think the general feeling is yes, it is, but just barely and it's still a pretty close call. today, just two themes overall. a lot of confusion on the timing of any syrian action by the united states. we don't really know when it's going to be. that's an issue. but the general feeling is the better gdp and the claims just barely good enough to make an argument of the taper light to probably happen in the month of september. let me show you something that happened that's interesting. you know the disaster emerging markets have been. we've had real turnarnds in some of the emerging markets. brazil still down today, but the bank of indonesia, the bank of brazil both lifted their bench rates. india is unchanged right now. that's interesting because it was up earlier here. central bank is exchanging dollars with oil companies so they can basically go out and buy oil. there's been

fresh from the five-year auction, rick santelli joins us live from the cme. hi, rick. >> hi. indeed the five-year auction, it wasn't horrible. two-year's auction yesterday wasn't horrible. these aren't the type of auctions we were getting several years ago with deeper demand. the fives, 160 yield after. a two-day of continutens, that dip has seemed to come out of the marketplace to some extent. look at a two-day of the dollar index. once again, seems to be finding footing around this 81 handle. the last chart, barclay's high-yield spread. it is widening a bit again. pay attention to that. you see the same dynamic in an etf called hyg. simon, back to you. >> i'll take it. thank you very much. military action against syria driving oil and gold higher. india's economic problems sparking fears about the emerging markets. so, should you stay away from investing overseas or are there still some opportunities to be had? we have more than $900 billion worth much investment coming up i've been doing a few things for a while that i really love-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 playing this and tr

rick santelli, there's syria on the front burner and bob just mentioned the increasing chatter that larry smerz will be named in the next few weeks. >> i'm sure there are bond traders that have varying opinions. i'll speak for the general population i talked to, the notion, for example, that he's much more or less dovish, i think that contrasting notion has been created by the administration, to contrast him with -- i don't know anybody on the floor i talked to has given me concrete reasons why he would be less dovish or the right man for the job. one thing we do know of. he put the tb in too big to fail banks in the late 90s, failing to jump on any type of regulation of derivatives that ultimately led to the big crisis. >> rick santelli, thanks for your analysis. >> let's get to the latest crisis in the middle east. nbc news reports that american military action against syria could happen as soon as 48 hours from now. chuck hagel telling the bbc is that the u.s. is quote, ready to go like that. cnbc's own national koerpt michelle ka russo cabrera is here. the conditionality of the red li

finance, and tim from a management group and rick santelli back as well. thanks for joining us. tim, i want to start with you, because if this sell-off has a lot to do with the situation in syria, that's one that frankly doesn't look like it's going to have an easy or quick resolutions. >> no. that's right, kelly. this is a big unknown at this point. this is probably the first reaction as far as the market based on the rumor, but if we, in fact, strike and attack syria, i think we're going to see more of this to come. obviously, dpee l obviously, depending what the nature of that might be. continuing military conflicts, potentially, in the middle east. and part of why we've been trying to hang in around commodity exposure. >> rick santelli, the markets today. are they trading simply on syria? are they paying attention at all to fundamentals? the fears of taper talk? all of the things that have been spooking up to this point? what do you make of the market's message today? >> it's a combination. if we didn't have very weak data points along with the geopolitical forces, i don't t

i think that should be a contributing factor. >> rick santelli, thank you, as always. i want to get back to what's happening with gold. as we mentioned, gold is currently up about 2%. it's currently here at 13.64, to back above that 13.50 mark. let's find out where it goes from here. frank holmes is a u.s. globe investor. is it a flight to safety? >> i don't think it's a flight to safety to the degree people are thinking. i think you're in that low season and this year was a spectacular, massive drop in the quarter. facts today show that physical demand is very strong, and a lot of the big redemptions took place with speculative financial gold players. they were bust in asia and the middle east and turkey, so i think you see gold trade continuously go through what i love to call the love trade, which starts every summer and runs through the chinese new year. >> yet this is kind of ironic, because the high we're seeing in gold came the day we found out some of the big hedge funders have been cutting their stakes in gold. do we follow the smart money, or do we get in gol

rich peterson is with us so is nathan and rick santelli. nay thanks what do you think? are we in a period right now as we wait not only for a military strike on syria but tapering next month that bad news could be perceived as good news for this market? >> think the markets did something today that was scary it used some logic. it thought through what would happen surgical strikes. when the market thinks it knows what's going on that's what you should be concerned. the only thing that worked today was correlation. we actually had some news that kind of, you can understand the bonds. they are saying interest rates will go up. stocks sort of left me wondering why because we got mortgage applications are down 53% in the last four months. that's not good news. i think the war that's being waged is over at the federal reserve and we found out shrapnel hit the emerging markets. that's the war we need to pay attention to. taper is off the table because of the facts i just mentioned. >> rich, you've come armed with stats about previous interventions we've done and what the mark

rick santelli has that and more live from the cme. rick. >> yeah, not a huge rally but i guess everything has to start somewhere. think about it. if your emerging markets are breaking down, where's flight to safety coming in? well, as you look as a ten year, simon is right, we're down a half dozen base points. we're still at 282, 283. let's look at everything from may 1st when the selloff began. look at our ten year, or look at the eurozone ten year, or the french ten year, whether you look at the uk ten year. none of them, to me, look like a flight to safety is ensuing even though some of these markets that normally cause that are still not looking good. and the dollar index, no flight to safety here. as a matter of fact, the only thing that stands in the way of more selling, say technicians, is that 80/60 low right in the middle of the page from mid june. that's a level a third of a percent away you want to watch. back do you. >> thank you very much. the one and only rick santelli. >>> stands as a statement of the obvious. many ameri

rick santelli. st nine looking at isn't we're wrestling with, how to measure housing affordability. >> the marriage of what rick was talking about, we get a ton of housing data in what is a quiet week. a lot will focus on july, new home sales, existing home sales. backup in interest rates has happened since. even is happening over the weekend. we touched 2.87% on continue-year significant. jim, you know this. it's what dig nates where the 30-year mortgage rate is heading. just making the point that housing affordability, given increase in prices and in rates, is at a four-year low. still affordable by historical standards. markets where that is slipping. the best cure for higher prices is higher prices. what extent can the market keep going forward? what extent, jim, when you look at builders -- and they've said they're not aggressive when it comes to building out becauses they they want to make sure prices don't collapse, are they shooting themselves in the foot here? >> a lot of people -- i haven't

. >> rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. k. >> believe me, it might be the dog days of august or very close to them but there can still be a lot of action in the fixed income markets. a 24-hour chart. you can see we're up a handful of basis points but let's open the chart up to the time slot that matters the most. start this chart out just before we have the last jobs report on the 5th of july, and what you'll see is that today hovering at 2.65 after what was deemed a weak employment report we're destined potentially of the third highest yield close and i find that so face naysnated because number one is the 5th of july after the strong high report and the other high close was a day after the report we had on friday. boy, certainly about jobs, jobs, jobs and risk. if you look at the hyg and lqd, hy is high lead and these etfs are under a little bit of pressure today. the stickiness of interest rates, making the risk trade a little different than some of the past chapters, and the last chart, if you look at intraday at the dol

rick santelli is at the cme. rick? >> hi, carl.s pretty amazing at how little yield progress or distance on an absolute basis we've added on the ten year. indeed, most of the yield curve. here we sit. look at the intraday and two-day charts. sit at 260. virtually unchanged on the day. virtually unchanged on the week. if we pick the 20th of june and i will pick that often because that really is where the date where the big selling pressure that moved rates 100 base points somewhat stopped at went into distribution mode with a couple of key days like employment reports causing spikes. here we sit. in this one week that we haven't really gone anywhere, the dollar index has been hurt a bit. if you look at same horizon from 620 where interest rates were distributing price activitactiv well, it's been all downside for the dollar. if you look at a year-to-date chart event versus the euro, euro versus the dollar, dollar versus the yen, same period, 134 on the dollar/yen, that 96 area. potentially on the dollar/yen. and even though abenomic

joining me is bernie williams, gene lacamp and our own rick santelli. gordon will join the conversation shortly, finishing up his trading. good to see everybody. thank you very much for joining me. bernie, let me kick this off with you. what's your move rest of the year here in stocks? you want to get out here, given the recent turbulence? or do you think we've got further gains to come? >> no, we wouldn't get out. we do think the u.s. will be in a bit of a holding pattern due to upcoming taper. but on a relative valuation basis, we do like europe a little bit better as that area seems to be turning around, and we really like emerging markets due to the deep valuation discount. >> it's interesting you say that, because the money has been flowing consistently out of emerging markets, because the growth levels certainly reversed course there. you think that's going to come back soon? >> yeah, we do. they still have relatively speaking much higher growth than the u.s. look, if you expect a little bit of recovery in the u.s. and europe, that's going to help

rick santelli in chicago. do not miss that conversation coming up. >>> and after the bell, home depot co-founder, kenneth langone, hosting the 4:00, as we know from the last time he was here, anything can happen. wait until you hear what he says about elliott spitzer leading the comptroller race. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." so you want to drive more safely? of smart. stop eating. take deep breaths. avoid bad weather. [ whispers ] get eight hours. ♪ [ shouts over music ] turn it down! and, of course, talk to farmers. hi. hi. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bubum - bum ♪ >>> it's been a vola

we have thomas of rm option strategies and our own rick santelli from the cme group.ood to see everybody. was it just a quiet august friday, or is there something different about the expiration? bill and i were saying a moment ago, it's the quietest expiration we've seen in a long time. >> it does feel boring, doesn't it? i think partly a friday in august. yesterday's move was fairly dramatic. what's interesting today is that the market tried, it really kind of hovered right around that 50-day moving average on both the future and the cash, maybe a little below, but trying to rally and stay there and hold there, which i think is actually a positive sign. at least in the short term, right? i think it will test it a little more, i think it needs to. i think the market is nervous. but for today, it does feel quiet. i think that makes sense, after yesterday's kind of dramatic move lower. that is just kind of churning and digesting. >> rick santelli, i was tweeting earlier that the bond vigilantes appear to be saddling up, the march toward 3% on the 10-year continues. what

bob pisani at nyse and rick santelli at the cme. is volume likely to finally pick up? >> no, it's not. normally i can't stand market indifference and light volume. today i'm fairly happy because the yields moving up to 2.9% and we're heading towards 3% on the yields. normally that's a big problem for the market. when it started doing that, i said, oh-oh, we're going to have a problem today. wrong. the stock market by and large, the dow has been in a 60-point range. normally they would move about 125 points. while we were hitting lows briefly, really didn't move too much in any direction one way or another. there we saw the move to the downside on the lows but a bounce back fairly quickly. i think that indifference a fairly good sign at least in the short term. interest rate sensitive stocks still on the downside. utilities ugly last week, reits were ugly, telecom stocks were ugly and those are the groups getting hit. finally the bank stocks. they're having trouble today as well. >> those pesky interest rates which reminds me, let's get to rick santelli. you know, we're

. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. hitting a six-month high but oracle ceo larry ellison says apple is doomed without steve jobs. we'll explain next, and the most dramatic episode of "the profit" so far is tonight. there will be tears. we have marcus lemonis and a bit of a surprise for him. a business in new jersey needs his advice. the owner of that business will ask marcus a few questions of his own next on "power lunch." stay tuned. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." i'm josh lipton. the music may have stopped at steinway. ticker lvb dropping in today's session. reports that colberg is refusing to match a rival bid for steinway. that rival bid said to be from paulson & company. that means the makers of pianos now free to sign the deal with the hedge fund. yesterday steinway saying it got a $38 bid from an unidentified asset manager. colberg offered 35 per share. tyler, back to you. >> thanks very much. tuesday is a big night on cnbc, all nights are but tuesday most especially because "the profit" is on at 10:00 p.m.

let's get to rick santelli. you have some thoughts on this, rick. >> yeah.aybe more importantly i think mark hanson has some thoughts. welcome. first time with me as a guest. can you react to robert schiller's comments? >> i think that's right on the nail there. i was surprised to see june case-shiller actually not increase as much as we even estimated. that's from april, may, and june closings which means february, march, and april contracts, right in the middle of the spring busy season. i was expecting it to be a lot -- up a lot more than it was. >> and you brought up a great point. sometimes the simple things elude many. i was passing your little note around what you were saying, that prices come before contracts and these are very old. let's go to another area. you know, the who, won't be fooled again. stimulus, how did it affect housing and how does it affect the psyche of the housing players? >> in 2003 when house prices reached a level, they became unaffordable. the banks and investment banks created leverage in structure, interest-only arloans. hous

let's get to rick santelli at the cme. rick? >> hi, carl.after going through the minutes yesterday and reading all the papers written about it, listening to all the discussions, talking a it, listening to the post-mortem today discussing it, truly, it's gobblity goop. it really is gobblity goop. i listen to people that a handful of years ago used to bring out the rulers, the measures sticks, yard sticks and talk in a quantitative fashion about the markets, the economy, durable goods, retail sales, all the things that are important. now, we go into these in-depth down the rabbit hole discussions about these subjective qualitative issues, honestly, i can't keep up with it. it's worse than the emperor has no clothes. i think it's that the emperor is invisible and he has no clothes. but let's look at it the old style and let's not forget something big. something big is, what, 3.6 trillion balance sheet, disruptive forces of managing interest rates, and let's really gets back to quantitative. okay? whether it was july of 2012 when we were trading

thank you, rick santelli.n in commodities with sharon epperson. >> looking at gold right now. gold prices are still above 1300 an ounce but seeing gold slip a bit. after the latest jobs report, traders are waiting for the next data point to watch. cutting bullish bets and looking at shorts that have risen 7% in the last -- the biggest increase in the last six weeks and that was as of last week. taking a look at what's happening in the exchange-traded fund market with gold, that's a key determinant perhaps where prices go. looking at gld in particular and seeing that that touched the lowest level in four weeks in terms of holdings last week. we'll be watching that carefully. if it dips below 1300 in term of price, we could see a decline in etf holdings. oil as well, we are seeing greater output from libya and the north sea and that is putting some pressure on oil prices. we have brent crude and wti futures lower on the session right now. traders are are watching what is happening in libbia, in particular, to se

we'll talk to somebody directly involved in that lawsuit in a moment. >>> first, rick santelli workingange." rickster. >> yeah, simon. we're going to bring our muni guy back. yesterday the department of justice put the kibosh on a merger and our muni guys. in 7 1/2 minutes we'll talk to new jersey, illinois, and detroit. you don't want to miss this one. - tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 playing this and trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the better i am at them, the more i enjoy them. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i'm always looking to take them up a notch or two. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and schwab really helps me step up my trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they've now put their most powerful platform, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 streetsmart edge, in the cloud. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i can use it on the web, where i trade from tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 most of the time. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 which means i get schwab's most advanced tools tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on whatever computer i'm on. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's really taken my trading to the next level. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i've also got a dedicated team of schwab tradi

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago.ot of currency, a lot of bonds, a lot of stuff. >> oh, yeah. as a matter of fact, if you're short treasuries maybe david doesn't have the sum but it's shining bright for you today. look at the two-day chart of fives. they are zooming. zooming. they're up about seven basis points. i know we had a new guy yesterday, really an old guy, a a long story but we turned a five-year into a seven-year. that story for another day. if you look at two days of tens, yes, they're up. yes, they're effected by gdp and initial jobless claims. but the next chart really shows you it's all about flattening, major curve flattening. 115, the spread on the fight. that's the big trade down here. tens versus fives. let's look overseas at the boon. yes, the yields responded to the 8:30 data but not in the same way afterwards as they started to slip in yield. foreign exchange, big topic. the euro and dollar index, look, they are finally giving us a clue as to direction. euro down, dollar up. look at one-day, two-d

carl, back to you. >> all right, thanks a lot, rick santelli in chicago. david? dell, of course. you can look at those shares. they are actually up about 5%, of course, investors reacting to the news that we got right before the opening bell, that we shared with you earlier in the morning. that michael dell, silver lake and the special committee of dell's board of directors reached a new deal for the purchase of the computermaker that calls for a 13.75 cash payment, a special dividend at close of 13 cents a share and the assurance that the 8 cents a share regular quarterly dividend will be paid by the company. the record date for this has been moved to august 12th. the vote on this new deal will take place september 12th, and don't forget, it still won't close, i'm told, until most likely to be potentially as late as october. you continue to see a spread in the share to that overall 1388 or even 13.96 price when you include the eight cent regular dividend. all of this, of course, will arrive after torturous negotiations, very windy, and very windy and actually en

the "closing bell exchange," jeff from lpl financial, adam thurgood from high tower and our own rick santelli. jeff, do you think they'll begin tapering in september? >> i do. i know that it's a controversial talking point here. listen, we've seen the data come in. we've seen the retail sales numbers, the ism numbers, the jobless claims. all of this suggests the economy with withstand the tapering. look at what the bond market is telling us. when qe 1 and qe 2 ended, bond yields fell. this time they've gone up and stabilized. that tells you we are ready for this time a successful end to qe. i think that's what's priced in. >> yeah, it's interesting, because you still have unemployment at, what, 7.4%. and the fed has talked about 6.5%. adam, how much of this is the fed worrying, anticipation over the possibility of tapering beginning sooner rather than later? and how much of it is just a slow august, volume on the light side, take advantage of the gains we've seen year to date? >> well, i certainly think the market's worried about tapering. the fed is artificially supported asset prices, and w

joining us to help break down the day is kevin and rich and our own rick santelli.entlemen, good to see you. rich peterson, let's talk earnings, when we were together the last time. you said maybe we could see things better than the overall expectations. we're decelerating, aren't we? >> that's correct. if you look from the fourth quarter of last year, we did over 7% on the s&p 500. first quarter, a little over 5%. currently now we're 95% of earnings season, about 4.8%. now you look ahead to the third quarter numbers, we just broke through the 4% level. expectations are for 3.9% earnings growth in the third quarter. if you look back in may when the 10-year was as historic low of 1.7, expectations were for over 7%. >> right, right. >> so they have come down. >> do we know why? >> well, obviously concern about the economy. the fact if you look at the retailers, having proper earnings from home depot tomorrow, lowe's on wednesday, get the gap on thursday. is the consumer really, you know, tapped out? you look at the housing market. half of the purchases are all cash. c

joining me here at the big board is kimberly frand rick santelli joins us. kimberly, you call yourself cautiously optimistic. >> i am. i think the markets have a way to go. i'm cautious about that. as long as we have the fed's pumping money into the system and the feds seem to avert any kind of crisis, we've got room to grow. >> but we don't have -- we can't any have any pullbacks. we haven't had a 10% correction in forever in this market. >> right. >> is that healthy? >> no, we need to have that pullback in order to grow long term. short term, this is a good thing. long term, it may not be so good. >> david, you're watching the fed closely for obvious reasons now. >> yes. >> the message -- everybody seems on message now. it's maybe going to happen in september, or maybe it won't happen. >> more likely to, that the fed begins to at least ease off an accelerator, where i'm sitting right out detroit, they're running monetary growth rate at 80 miles an hour, plus, bill. they'll decelerate. they have to. i'll stand by what you and i have talked about, the most a

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl.nd so many directions. i feel like a spark on a good firework on the fourth of july but we're going to grab two of those embers and we're going to try to relate them to the market in easy ways. well, housing. the more i look at all the housing data, the more i talk to people like mark hanson yesterday, and, boy, he really understands the underpinnings of the mortgage and housing market, just little things that we all take for granted, but when you think about them in clear, concise fashions, things make more sense. for example, you know, when you see some of the case-shiller housing price data points, that in essence when you look at the progression of how you buy a house, you put in a bid, you find a price, and the process moves on. you get financing. that the actual price versus the actual closing of the house, there's so much time that the data that we may be looking at today purely reflecting prices is really based on old dynamics. but i guess fire and ice best describes housing in

. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ] >>> let's get to rick santellie ed lazear. part-time chicago resident, full time great economist. welcome, ed. >> thank you. >> i really enjoyed your piece last week about gdp, and one of the issues that you raised was it's really a poor indicator of the future. can you dig down on that a little bit, please? >> sure. there are two reasons for it. first of all, it's actually a poor indicator of the current situation. the number that we get tends to be revised over and over again, and it's revised significantly. so last quarter we saw 1.7% growth. typically that could go up or down by something like 1.2 percentage points. we could be talking about last quarter having been a 3% quarter or last quarter having been a half a percent quarter. for that reason you know that gdp number is noisy. but more important things that are going to happen in the future are not necessarily reflected in this quarter's gdp. that's why the market is a better indicator. let me give you an example. let's suppose we knew that something new t

on fed day rick santelli is live from chicago.hat would one expect on a day when transparency seems to be the call. unchanged. getting close to unchanged. all markets seem to have topped or reversed a bit. but it all seems to be looking for the same variable. what is going to happen in 24 minutes. the fixed income markets will slide through it. most important currencies. if you look at the euro? if you are looking at the dollar in gex, a lot of debate on those two mirror image charts. tyler, back to you. all right thank you very much. a really good point there. defining fundamentals. possibly at the top of the hour. let's move onto come back companies. remember when netflix was left for dead shares today a new two year high inching back up to the all time high. the stock is now down by 1.5%. google and the gridiron. making a play to get nfl games. we will talk more about that. we'll explore it more in a few minutes. >>> if you dig deeper look at the big oil companies. exonn has shaped over 50 points off the dow. big big downside m

rick santelli is over at the cme in chicago. >> you know how excited you get when you get a new car,feel when you get new ten years and new 30 years. we did get a new ten year yesterday. we're going to auction off a new 30 year today. made some of the comps with yesterday a little dicey. puts a little pressure. as you look at this chart you can see that coming into our time zone we are hovering around 250 yield. if you open the chart up you can really see -- well, first of all, the jobless claims at 8:30 eastern that put a little buy in it. that makes sense. lower jobless claims certainly can't be a bad thing. how good it is is what we really need to debate. when you open that chart up you can see why we are now really at a turning point potentially. that 261 as you see on the left side of that bond chart, that was the first high yield close after the big sell-off to push rates up in may. and that is a very significant level technically. and if we over time consolidate and start to slide under it, that may mean lower yields. right now it's too close to call. so call it a pivot. 261 i

destination wealth management, keith fitzgerald, frank from planned financial services and our own rick santelli, rick i want to go to you. another up with of those days the interest rates spiked early on. they came back. we hit 283 on the ten-year note. what's going on there? >> well, to me, we calm it the treasury market went high. means it's in new territory. it's carving out new reigns. it is most likely covering out a new high yield close. even tow bob is exactly right, we are now 7, 8 basis points off our high yield, up 4 basis points on the day. it's an important 4 basis points. we will most likely usurp that july 5th, 274 high yield close. when markets go hot, it's so hugely significant. they're proactive, interest rates are moving the momentum gauge again into positive territory. it doesn't surprise me that stocks are reacting the way they are. but maybe the most important, yet underreported bit of data today was treasury international capital flows. the biggest monthly drop since 2007, we'll call it six years, close to 67 billion and china and japan both liquidated securities to the tu

. >> rick santelli, we'll do that.h. >>> s&p 500 all-time highs topping the 1700 mark for the first time ever. there are only four stocks that sell more than for $14 a share. of those four, only apple is down year to date. "washington post" up the most year to date followed by priceline and chipotle. then comes mastercard, google and auto zone. auto zone up 26%. apple, oops, a slip there on the old apple peel down 14% at 455. >>> plus the power house today, what your money buys in atlanta. the new guy is loaded with protein! i'll believe it when i--- [ both ] oooooh... [ female announcer ] as you get older, protein is an important part of staying active and strong. ensure high protein... fifty percent of your daily value of protein. low fat and five grams of sugars. [ major nutrition ] ensure! nutrition in charge! low fat and five grams of sugars. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and ru

joining us to talk about it is steve liesman and rick santelli. what's of youyour assessment? >> it's not gone down easily. we have been talking about this all day. it's right in the middle. i was hoping to go hope. it's 160 with a 7-4 and it's a complicated number. i think what you heard is instructed. he said the fed needs more data. >> rick, the bond market seems to suggest that they're not going to accept it any time soon, don't you think? >> i'm reading the bond market totally different. let's go to the wayback machine. last number was better than expected with positive provisions. today we're seeing the opposite. i have a sense that the bond market may be subcy dids and it may not be at its true value. i think it's behaving in a logical action. bad news brings rates down, good news brings rates up. the only difference is when they get done with these programs, i have a feeling you're going to keep behaving that way but you're going to scale up 40 basis points higher in the range. >> let me ask you guys can we realistically expect to begin tapering next month? >> a lot of

kelly, back to you. >> rick santelli with levels to watch. thank you very much, sir.but her time in her florida mansion apparently won't. celine dion putting her expansive flores state up for sale and robert frank takes you inside for a look around next. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." she loves a lot of it's what you love about her. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or ur

. >> rick santelli? >> yesterday bonds were a safe-haven play as gold was and both have been seeing some selling today? what's going on? >> the market is schizophrenic. it always has been. it's short term. traders in august have a lot of time to read the news. look at some of the big stories today. we talked on cnbc about how if there was a tweet from iran that basically they don't like the use of chemical warfare. we saw the israeli news service stories about how the russians aren't necessarily going to get involved should the u.s. have a surgical strike. in the "financial times" big concerns about triggering deeper conflict. the fact that there's so much discussion now i think is mitigating some of the short term effects. doesn't mean they won't return tomorrow. >> all right. thanks, rick. gentlemen thanks so much for joining us. all right. we got about 20 minutes before the close bell and the dow jones industrials average higher by 70 points the nasdaq up by 20. >> today's gain not with standing the d

>> of all those, i loved rick santelli santelli's rant. get out, but it was fantastic. you know, the other ones in there, the jpmorgan deal, i think jpmorgan the whale deal you've got to watch that because there's a lot of litigation risks in these banks. i'd be a bit careful. >> karen do you think jpmorgan is -- we have breaking news. kayla? >> just a quick development from the 13f filed by george tsiros. he bought a 7.9% stake in jc penneys. by the end of the quarter, he's liquidated the whole thing. so definitely an interesting development. he had taken that big stake, but obl, lost faith in that investment in a short period of time by the end of the quarter. >> thank you very much. interesting. throwing in the towel. >> i'm a little bit confused on that filing. you know what? let me look into it. >> the stock is ticking 13.60 in the after hours. >> i don't know p it's on the -- let me look into it. >> we'll look into the filing more but i was going to point out the fact that george soros has also decided to pull all of his money. >> ex