also the cme group, let's get over to rick santelli and the santelli exchange. rick?, you know, we see maybe different dynamics and the ecb, bank of japan, our own fed, but it really is akin to some of the issues we've already seen. one of my big complaints with the credit crisis and how it was handled is the fact that we're putting people in charge of picking winners and losers. and we all understand that free markets may have their flaws and hiccups. allocating resources, allocating capital, or making the tough decisions, the aggregate behavior of the marketplace is better than individuals. okay? i think many out there, if you're older, if you're a saver, you understand, you weren't picked as a winner. so at this time where march madness and everybody has their brackets, rick's picks are that who is going to end up and what institutions are going to end up better off is going to look a lot in the future like it has in the past. the too big to fail banks seem have done well. leverage is bigger. balance sheets are mostly bigger. yet when you look at where the buck sto

. >> let's go to the bond commits and rick santelli at the cme group. rick?picenter of some activity. that's the understatement of the year. the two-day chart of tens you see all you want to see. momentum continues to build to the downside. what i find fascinating is open the chart up year to date, a couple of things jump at you. here we hover at 264 and we've challenged 260 so we're hovering to the lows close since early march but really the key is february 3rd, 257. you want to pay attention to that. let's look at another area that is important. the yield curve gives you all the clues you need. we've been talking about it. many say how steep it is. but steepness isn't the issue, it's really about flattening. look at twos to tens and look at fives to tens and they are the flattest since basically early july of last year. july is the wild date right now. look at bund yields! they're at the lowest level since basically early july of last year. let's look at gilts ten year, the uk ten year. they're very close, a few basis points from being the lowest yields on

on that note, out to the bond pits and talk to rick santelli at cme group in chicago. t's changed, bob, everything's changed. $4 trillion balance sheet. where do we go? treasurely market wants to go lower in price, higher in yield but doing it at a snail's pace. i don't mean on the volume or participation, just distance travel. 2.79 unchanged from yesterday. now, let's look at the yield curve. we get good clues there. look at 2s versus 10s. but it is steepening a bit. unlike when you include the belly of the curve, which is the five-year. 5 to 10s, 5 to 30s, they're flattening, auger for a slow move or rise up, all things being equal. take a step back, look at year-to-date of tens i draw parallels with the dollar/yen. this is one issue that's calling for higher rates. traders are paying close to this correlation. if we want to continue to look at what's going on in europe and china, look no further than the stock market, whether germany's or china. euro versus the dollar. 28-month high against the greenback. something to contend with, pay close attention to future expor

rick santelli is amazing. he has a gazillion followers on twitter and to my knowledge you still haven't tweeted once, have you? >> no, no. i'm waiting for that definitive moment of ultra information. >> we will know something is important when rick santelli has tweeted. >> you know, bill, i have nothing against tweeting. i have nothing against social media. i think it's a great dynamic, a disruptive dynamic that's a lot of good within our economy. just not my cup of tea. but i'll tell what you is my cup of tea, watching these ten-year note yields. granted, the range is very compressed but we're coming down and we're about to ready to slip under yesterday's low yield which is about 2.76 1/2 for you fine tuners out there. we were talking about china. i like when you brought up copper and iron ore. not only are there dynamics with the weakening of the yuan and i have charts that show yuan versus dollar overlayed with copper prices, but when you start thinking back five years with all the rare earth and industrial

tim leach, marty patel, steve liesman is with us, so is rick santelli. we are ready to go here. steve liesman, i will start with you. we haven't mentioned janet yellen's speech today. she made it clear exactly how dovish she is, didn't she? >> which is a key issue for fed and fed policy and what she said is that there's an awful lot of slack in the labor market as far as she's concerned. she mentioned people working part time for economic reasons, people unemployed for longer than six months. she talked about five different metrics and if there was any doubt how dovish she was on the issue of labor. i think the thing that moved markets was her saying that this required the fed to remain easy for at least some time. didn't walk back the six-month comment, but in a subtle way suggested maybe it was longer than six months. also, bill, taking a very populist tact for a fed chair. she mentioned individual americans by name and their experiences in the job market and later in the day maybe we can bring you this after her speech, hopefully we'll be able to bring you this video later, s

and rick santelli watching something else today. verybody else is, the water cooler topic of the day, hft. i'm going to come at it from a tangent line a little different than everybody else's. a couple questions need to be asked. and i'm going to ask them bottom of the hour. of the hour. whoyour boss?rk for? yourself? your parents? your family? at baird, what matters most to you... matters most to us. as an employee owned firm, our financial advisors have the freedom and resources to realize a plan to fit your family's unique needs. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." check out shares of tempa pharmaceuticals. moving higher on news the supreme court has agreed to hear an appeal in their top selling drug. could introduce cheaper versions of this drug as soon

let's get over to the cme group and check in with rick santelli, hey, rick. >> hi, carl.we're going to be moving quickly. first fell on the data this morning. personal income and spending for january came out pretty good, all things considered. one thing that was a fly in the ointment that caught my eye is december on the income side unrevised at a goose egg, unchanged. what was originally released up .4 on spending for december only moved to up .1. not good news. we need to pay attention to that. construction spending came out late if you recall because of all the weather issues with regard to government offices, but it did eventually come out. and the january read was up 110. but what i found fascinating is like the income and spending we had a revision to december. originally released at only up .1, now standing at up 1.5. that really does say there are weather issues, but not necessarily hugely impacting a variety of markets. we all know in housing there are different pockets of the country that were doing very well. it's an important area. we have to handicap to see

and he will be with us next. >>> and of course, okay, rick santelli live in chicago with the santelligank centgster tommy guns but also traders chasing curves. not those curves. at the bottom of the hour the build curve news is exciting times ten. how much money do you think you'll need when you retire? then we gave each person a ribbon to show how many years that amount might last. i was trying to, like, pull it a little further. [ woman ] got me to 70 years old. i'm going to have to rethink this thing. it's hard to imagine how much we'll need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. so maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. ♪ make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. ♪ >>> there are have been some rumor of an iphone6. some believe it could be a positive for the next two quarters but says the june estimate on the street for apple appear too high. gene munster is senior analyst research with p

tobias, thanks. >>> let's get to rick santelli in chicago with today's santelli exchange. tain things that are easy to talk about. there are other things that just aren't. we all know that old adage, you know, at the thanksgiving table when you're with family you want to stay away from politics and religion. why? people get infuriated and you never really reach a good conclusion. as of late thursday, big topic that fall s under that same category. global warming/climate change. we've had the president to the secretary of state talk about it recently in terms of the science is settled. science is never settled. that's why it's science. maybe economics gets settled once in a while but never scien scien science. i would be nervous when anybody that isn't directly part of the scientific community tells you science is settled because, see, governments have a big vested interest in climate change. the reason i'm talk ak it today is in the context of what's going on with russia and germany and ukraine. it's all about energy in many ways. it's about natural gas. it's about putin ou

>> first of all, let me say rick santelli's dreams are probably my nightmares.'s get that straight. no, i mean, i think she's going to come out and take another ten off the monthly asset buys. we're talking about a mere $55 billion a month now in quantitative easing and as maya suggested, perhaps a shift from less quantitative to more qualitative forward guidance. we'll see about that. but i think the important point and here i disagree with rick, i think what we'll hear from chairwoman yellen is that the economy still needs some help from monetary stimulus. it is not out of the woods. output gaps remain strong. inflationary precious remain very que he is sent. i think -- that by the way has been the message of previous meetings, so i expect consistency in that regard. >> maya, the one concern we tend to hear from people when they think about a stronger u.s. economy, what happens when rates go up and we have to do something to address the longer term entitlement issues and the u.s. government perhaps is paying a little more in interest? what's your main concern

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning.fed meeting i've written or excuse me, i have read so many articles handicapping the u.s. economy. how the u.s. economy relative to other economies, you heard professor today. we're just traunching the advance to economies and we're keeping up with the advancing economies like china to developing economies and in the end, it really is all about the horsepower of an economy, whether it's relative to other economy or in the big picture if you need revenues and you need expansion and you need a bigger pie, it isn't just benchmarking against others. it's growing on your own. remember when your mom, you say, just because jimmy's walking over the edge of a cliff doesn't mean you have to follow him. sometimes you have to stand alone. and one stand alone area in this country really is energy. you know, yesterday "wall street journal" had a great piece. didn't have anything to do with energy. but it did have something to do with drones and governments and they brought up something regarding the

how'd it do, rick santelli? >> it didn't do badly considering how many yields they've had of late. c-plus is the grade. the yield as auction, .469. the bid to cover a 3.20 was a little light on auction average. $3.30 normally instead of $3.20. we have one good number here since 2011 direct to 21.5, very average. 35% of this auction was taken by dealers. so c-plus. it priced pretty well. everything about it was fairly average. and tomorrow, of course, 35 billion five-year notes. and tomorrow is going to be a key auction. that's the part of the yield curve that really played havoc with the street after the fed statement. s sue, tyler, back to you. >> let's run back to a couple of numbers. the dow right now a little bit higher by about 78 points at 16355. nasdaq off just a smidge. s&p 500 higher by five, about a quarter percent. russell is down a bit. 1,176. the ten-year note at 2.72%. we'll get to him in just a moment, but first to sheila. this is the main atf that tracks the biotech sector. and as you probably know if you've been watching cnbc the past few days, stocks down 12% in t

going to chicago and rick santelli with breaking news with another auction. >> yeah. tell what you. gave it a b, just upgraded it to a b-plus as i got the directs. putting a cap on $96 billion including the two year and the five year. the grade b-plus. the yield, 2.258. the one issued market was offered at 27.26 .26. darn close, like yesterday. covering close to a 10 auction average. the 44.4 on the indirects. zooming, 32.6 pushing the dealer take on this auction to 26%. a b-plus caps the supply for the week, and everything else is just going to be left to the markets to-handicap, of course, the weekend and all the issues of the day. sue, tyler, back to you. >> all right, rick. i'll pick it up. thanks very much. >>> matt mcelwain, if this announcement includes the migration of microsoft office to ipad, what, if anything, does that imply about microsoft's belief and commit to the surface tablet? >> uh-huh. >> well, i think that it can be strong on the surface tablet, but what it's really imply is that their greater strengths today on onnare on the applicat today and what they're buil

meanwhile, let's go to the bond market and check in with rick santelli, who is tracking the action atrick? >> reporter: well, in front of a big report, adp in the morning, risk is on in full-fledged trading force. we're up eight basis points, you see by the intraday ten, opening up to the end of january, you can see the levels. we held that basically the third at 2.58 yield. if we look at the dollar index which really wasn't very much of a flight to safety during when the market paid attention what's going on in ukraine, certainly it's paying attention, risk on and rates moving higher. as well as the dollar strength against the yen which continues to be the best chart to watch if you want to know the risk on day and how to trade ten-year note yields. tyler, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. seema now with a market flash. >> take a look at cliff's natural resources, not participating in today's big rally. wells fargo downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform due to a challenging macro environment. down about 2.5%, sue? >>> also an activist investor in t

. >> let's get to the bond pits and rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago this morning. you had to pick a number where stocks would do well but not terrific, i guess 175 would be it. as far as treasuries, you know, they're doing about what one would expect, they are keeping one eye on the stock market and i think the other eye on the dollar/yen. the intraday chart, the high watermark was a whisker shy, we haven't closed in that region in 6 1/2 weeks. let's go back to the relationship between the dollar/yen and ten-year note yields because they really popped yesterday which in my opinion talking to traders was one of the reasons they wanted to go on this much flatter versus a little bit long and you are right. whether you look at a comparison chart on a monthly basis or year to date basis, it's obvious how tightly controlled and correlated these two charts are when you put them on the same axis. now, if we switch gears a bit, there's a lot of talk about how great higher interest rates are for the banks and, of course, we're ignoring, of course, the trading profits at the b

rick santelli is tracking the action. what did it look like? >> reporter: it looked ultra-average. the grade is c and it was pretty much average in just about every way we measure on the demand side. the yield at the $30 billion three year note auction, .802 so a whisker above 80 basis points. the bid side, the bid side was 80 basis points so it tailed just a bit. 3.25, $3.25, chasing every dollar available, that's called the bid to cover. basically that's average. 29.9, below the 35% ten auction average of indirects, 15.5 in directs, little under the 16% ten auction average. dealers took 54.6%. we always like when investors take the lion's share. tomorrow, of course, we will be moving further down the curve to ten year notes and i see stocks make new lows right around the time of the auction. i can tell you this. i don't think it was the three year note auction that was the catalyst. back to you. >> i think you're probably right on that. we will talk about the market in a few minutes. thank you very much. >>> back now to that puerto rican bond offering. these are triple tax free.

rick santelli, calling them like he sees them. dominic chu? >> sinking, check out this chart, it's bad. this company really is falling after it received a sieve maciv investigative demand, cid from the bureau. the purpose, determine whether finance companies or unnamed persons have been or are engaging in unlawful acts or practices. investor are not accepting world acceptance now. the stock is down big. you can see down about 19%, 20% on the session overall. tile ir, back to you. >> something i said? the dow is now down 200 points. the nasdaq down 1.5% on the session so far. there you see the dow sliding here at mid-session. one of the fears on wall street recently has been china. we talked about it yesterday. and today steve liesman and michelle caruso-cabrera, doing more digging. more evidence of a wave of trouble sort of moving across the pacific and around the globe. michelle, first, you're going to tell me about why all of this concern about copper? >> right. we've been telling you all week. copper is selling off hard this week, because w

. >>> let's head to the bond pits and rick santelli join us from the cme in chicago. rick?cks are up. what's going on in russia's probably going to be more about news conferences than it's going to be about anything else. that's reflected in the market, we're up five basis points you can see on the one-day chart of ten-year note yields. you can clearly see it. if i were to handicap russia it's a five to seven point issue. you see the year to debt chart of tens and let's swap it for dollar/yen, does it look the same in it certainly does and that's important to pay attention to. let's switch gears and go back to the stories of the last couple of days. let's look at a chart short term of the dollar versus the ruble. you can see that things have reversed. if you look at a 20-year chart they've reversed from some very extreme areas on that chart. let's look at another currency that we need to pay attention to that's dollar versus the yuan, chinese currency and it is still hovering in dollar favor at the highest levels since june of last year. we want to pay attention to that bec

let's get to the bond completes and rick santelli from the cme group in chicago. ck. >> thanks, buddy. anybody continuing to try to answer all the questions about the ultimate direction of interest rates is looking at yield curves. if you look at a one-day and specifically a two-day of tens, you can see yesterday we reached up towards 278. today we're elevated a bit. but we're still not really breaking through. and if we look at the chart from january we can clearly see that there's a lot of activity around the 271 to 277 area. but that's where all the question marks end. the real issue is that the midpart of the curve and even the short maturities, threes, fives, after they moved up in yield, down in price, after the fed statement really haven't backed off. so, as you look at a fives to tens spread, you can see that it's basically the tightest it's been in ten months. but here's the one to really watch. look at fives to 30s. close to an eight-year, yes, eight-year flat, so we want to continue to monitor that. let's look overseas for a minute. let's look at bund yi

rick santelli is at the cme. what was demand like? >> reporter: if jackie gleason traded bonds he would go how strong it was! that was a strong auction. we gave it an "a" for apple. if you're in debt and want to sell paper, this is what you want your auction demand to look like. let's go through it. first, it is really a ten year note because we auctioned what was the true ten year note a month ago. this is a nine year, 11 month we added into an existing issue. the yield at the auction, 2.729. what was trading in the one issue market, around 2.74. what was the low yield in the one issue market? well, it was higher than where we price which means lower yield, higher price, one of the main reasons for such a strong rate. in addition, the dealers took less than 30% of this auction. why? because the directs were strong, the strongest since april of 2013. the indirect were right on average and the bid to cover the best since march of 2013 at 2.92, solid, solid auction. tomorrow, $13 billion reopened 30s to cap out the supply. back to you.

brian jacobson, david molnar and our own rick santelli monitoring all the safe haven plays. brian jacobson, you say you want to buy everything you can get your hands on on this dip. why are you not worried with the rest of the market on what's going on with ukraine? >> i think this is just an overreaction to what's going on in lad, you wrote about national security issues and the soviet union. do you agree with that? is it okay to step into the markets here? because ultimately this isn't going to have a systemic effect on the rest of the global economy? >> i think, yes, i do. i think in a tactical sense this was just one of the headlines that no trader could predict, but on the other hand the russians have been trying to keep control of the ukraine for lun hundreds of years going back to katherine the great. they will not tolerate an independent ukraine. i saw an interesting note this morning, there's energy in the ukraine that could supplant the russians as far as being a supplier to western europe. there's a lot of things going on here. we'll hear more about it. this isn't

shei sheila dharmarajan and rick santelli. >> we had good economic data.rs were good and there was some relief there wasn't any kind of more aggressive action taken in crimea and ukraine following that referendum. the sanctions from the u.s. as expected. good data. a lot of good news about spinoffs and ipos which is always a positive for this market, and then also the markets pushed through a key resistant level of 1850 at the s&p 500, and so that helped to drive the markets higher. some traders say some short covering was involved there. so all of this on a light volume day, you get 188-point gain on the dow. >> sheila, the strength we saw across all the bourses, so what about some of these parts of the nasdaq, for example, where we've seen the biotechs ramping of late and anything there that might be a tell for the rest of the week? >> we saw a couple good signs here at the nasdaq today. the first had to do with the chip makers. we saw nice strength there. qualcomm leading the way after bullishness from stern ag. biotech sector did get a lift. also a goo

thank you, steve sedgwick. >>> let's go to chicago with rick santelli for this morning's santelli, changeimon. i think the topic of geopolitics and what's going on in crimea is front and center. let's look at the lay of the land before we get to all of the issues. as i look at our ten-year note yield, it settled at 265, it's at 266, we're basically up one basis point after the referendum, which obviously, the outcome is less meaningful to pretty much everybody outside of putin's regime. let's look at something a little bit less intense. let's look at how many basis points we are above the lowest yield of the year in some of the related areas. in the u.s., we're about eight basis points above our lowest yield close for 2014. let's look at the bund, it's in their backyard, they're one basis point above the yield close for the year. the uk, three basis points above. in japan, about four basis points above even though it's only 58 basis points to begin with. so the factors are that we're trying to handicap, pretty simple, the geopolitics of the situation and the ongoing issues with china's sl

you deal with it. >>> now let's deal with the cme group and rick santelli. rick? n't. we're going to do the santelli exchange on another large issue and that is weather. everything we discuss is going to be anecdotal. everything that we hear both sides really is anecdotal in my opinion. a big issue, traders are talking about how many times steve liesman talked a it yesterday. the beige book mentioned weather. it was a lot more than the historical norms. i understand that these are historical times with regard to weather. but i also understand that anecdotal frefd people i talk to, my cameraman, for example, has relatives who live in florida. you can't get in a motel and the people from the colder part of the country keep going down there. all the wires that were down in georgia, for example, well, a lot of overtime hours, a lot of extra people hired. two-sided issues. in chicago -- listen, the people who plow driveways are having a good year. people who sell salt are having a good year. with regard to housing, you know, not the entire country isn't always cold. so

but for now let's move from equities to bonds and head to the bond pits and rick santelli is at the cme> thanks, david. well, if you look back to last wednesday's statement what you would notice is, no matter what maturity you look at, it's been pretty tight closes and the ten-year, for example, every day has had a closing yield between 277 and 273. not a wild one, and here we sit again. look at the one-day chart, what that will glean you is that durable goods especially the proxy for cap-x a bit lagging. mostly aircraft was the strength of it. there you are right above the market the 276 area. good resistance just like good support, a whisker above 270. open the chart up to a couple of months. boy, there's a lot of activity in this zone. we could stay here for a while. now, it's been all about the yield curve. but there are a few issues to pay attention to. the tens to 2s that you see here, it's mostly been steepening. but today a little bit of flattening and the flattening trades whether you look at fives to tens, virtually the flattest since may of last year is definitely having a co

let's get to rick santelli for the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, simon.t today, representative jim jordan. thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule, sir. >> good to be with you today, rick. >> you're on committees and subcommittees that deal in three areas, energy, reform, and health care. my questions are going to be in those three categories. >> okay. >> with regard to energy, do we even have an energy plan, congressman? >> the house republicans have a plan. i don't think the president does. he won't approve the keystone pipeline. he won't tend natural gas we have an abundance of in europe to help the situation in europe and ukraine and putin. i don't think the president does. we have a plan which is use the resources, the good lord has blessed us with, use it in a way to help our economy and help the allies and help the world situation. >> i agree with you. i'm in your camp 100 -- 1,000%. it certainly seems as though that we are being held hostage by some of the extremes with regard to climate change and global warming. listen, we need t

. >>> let's head to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. >> good morning, carl. big day, mixed trading treasuries easy. all you have to do is look at the charts. let's look at the dax it was down two -- what was it today? about 1.5%. a year-to-date chart of the nikkei. down much more. double that. let's look at a year-to-date chart of the shanghai only down small today but especially that nikkei it's on a rising channel. if it starts trading much lower it goes into negative momentum. if the markets that have been the recipients of central bank favors start to fall out of favor, that notion that there is no alternative changes digitally because treasuries become the tina and that is and has been a dynamic all year. granted it isn't huge yet, but if you look at how little upside yield momentum or selling of treasuries there were after the breakout which was friday's close, you can understand. so, look at a one-day, two-day chart of tens. you can see they're moving a bit lower and this should be interesting with a big ten-year and 30-year aucti

the conversation will continue. >>> let's get to rick santelli in chicago.ou know what, simon, i have to thank you personally. you asked a question today when you were talking to ron paul that made me change everything i'm going to talk about. can low rates be an impediment to growth? it just seems like such a counter intuitive notion. my answer is a resounding yes, yes, yes. and i'm gv you some examples as to why. when you have low interest rates, you have one dynamic which is allocating capital to an investment. consider somebody who makes a billion dollars a year, you know, somebody like a warren buffett who is super wealthy. i can't imagine when they go out and buy a ford explorer that they get as excited as somebody who makes $25,000 a year buying a ford explorer. because the allocation of capital to that person is very, very important. the point is, is that when capital is cheap it will go to cheap ideas and cheap ideas don't necessarily add productive horsepower to the u.s. economy. think about the u.s. government. with interest rates being so low the

steve moore and cnbc contributor rick santelli. rick, how did you read yellen today? >> i don't think think she said that much different than we heard from her before. the markets read a lot more into her than i did and they went down on something that they might as well have gone up on. if you say you might normalize sooner than people thought, that means the economy is improving. the market should haveom applaud that. >> rick, i saw this quote from leon cooperman. i think it was via doug cast but cooperman says if people don't believe oron don't understand tn interest rates have to go up, they shouldn't be in this stock market at all. i don't think a one percent interest rate is any big deal. i'm going get your take. was the impression that janet yellen was hawkish in your view? >> no, definitely not, larry. what we saw today in action was some of the nworld's biggest bod funds and their positions being long, threes being long, fives. they like to be long the heart of the yield curve around that five-year sector. if you look at threes or fives, they came out like a

that is rick santelli. rick, we spoke yesterday about whether or not that sort of coiled spring was enforced. because everybody was so far on one side of the yield curve, what's the reaction one day later? >> i'm sorry. if somebody's really objective and they look at a 30-year bond, that's at exactly the same 365 it was before the statement yesterday. we look at a 277 ten-year on march 7th. it closed a basis point higher than that intraday on the 7th of march. it traded 282. so, to me, if everything was sound with the economy, in a traditional sense, the 10s and 30s should have felt that selling pressure as well. it was all on the short end. and i think it means that, you know, when somebody's irrational, emotional, you slap them. we saw the fed, in essence, slap the markets in may. not because they said anything shocking, because everybody knows, sooner or later, we have to normalize. i think it was one of those may moments yesterday, that the people holding the steepners just got nervous of what they thoug

the man who has the trader's ears, rick santelli and last but certainly not least, steve liesman.135. ding, ding, ding. ben white? what are you thinking? >> 115. no change in the unemployment rate. >> jared bernstein, your predictions? >> 138 on the payrolls, unemployment ticks up a tenth to 6.7%. >> rebecca patterson, how about you. >> 130 on the payrolls, unchanged inemployment rate at 6.6. >> rick santelli, your guess? >> 120,000 on jobs and i'll take the fifth on the unemployment rate. i definitely don't want to be viewed as acknowledging it has any significance. >> steve liesman, your thoughts? >> 84. >> one more time. 84? >> 84. i have a crazy motto about the private sector. i don't think they'll add much to it. >> without going over? >> the price is right rules. it's got to be "price is right" rules. >> one job. that's my prediction. >> i will wonder, half of your brought down your numbers given the numbers we've seen this week. steve, 84,000, you adjusted that. >> manufacturing employment, other employment was really week. they're both components in the model. when the gov

. >>> out to chicago, where rick santelli is tracks the interest raid and currency action. ricky?> thanks, sue. aisle city trying to understand what tyler and steve were talking about with the fed. it's really important, but it's not really important. i don't know, i can't wait for the press conference on wednesday. if you look at a chart of tens, i can see things more clearly. we're up a couple basis appointments after the crimea referendum after our high yields on friday. if you look at a two-month chart, the treasury market is pretty much committed to a pattern. momentum is to yields to the down side. there have been corrections, but we still sit about 35 basis points lower than where we settled last year. if i look at the euro versus the dollar, it answers all questions. does this look like a currency where there's aggress in the backyard? it didn't so toe m the etf for munis, it's about to break out to the best levels -- we had the mayor of san jose. nobody really care being that anymore. steady as she goes. >> no, but that was a great interview. thanks. >>> you want 165 poin

let's head to the bond pits and rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. know the issues regarding the ukraine seemed to come out of the market pretty quickly yesterday and we also know that there was some effect on the interest rate market due to the weakness in the equity market. but today is a continuation of yesterday. as you look at this intraday chart of tens a couple things should jump out at you. first of all, we're above 270 but more importantly at 8:15 eastern is when we had the he yield because it was a disappointing adp report but we could see it's much more risk on and much more reversing the compression regarding some of the issues regarding geopolitics and maybe weather and we're off to the races so to speak. if you look at some of the clues, let's look at the twos to tens spread on the yield curve and five to tens on year to date, you see the way they are starting to turn up just a bit? that's a clue you don't want to be too long treasuries looking for lower yields. if we continue to monitor all the other issues that give you clues, let's l

. >> let's go to rick santelli at the cme. stock market and the markets have recovered post-fed bond yields have barely budged off their highest levels. >> absolutely. it is all about the yield curve but the funny part we all know it is about the flattening yield curve which has been the huge surprise but there is no surprise the debate as to why will it continue and is it a leading indicator, those are all under scrutiny. i'll give you one statistic that says it all. 364 on 30s. we're up four basis points on the week on 30s. we're up 20 basis points on the week on fives. that pretty much says it all. let's look at a two-day chart of tens. we're at 277. and open it up to one week chart, okay? 277s are wild. are we settled on fed wednesday, it is where we settled yesterday and trading today. and even though the yields are up on the week, it really does auger for the following charts to be so important. let's look at a one year chart of tens minus twos, that's had bouts of steepening but it's flattening and five to tens is flatt

of course, rick santelli is in chicago. warren myers, what about this choppy market action we've seen recently? somebody said yesterday that to them it signifies an uncertain market, a confused market is also how somebody put it. what do you think? >> that's usually an indication of a choppy market. you get two very distinct opinions. because of that, you get a lot of up and down. we've been seeing quite a bit of that. not surprising given the run-up we've had in this marketplace and where we are economically with the u.s. economic data being marginally improved but some of the european issues creating uncertainty. it's not uncommon to have this choppy market. very nonunexpected is the way to put it. >> rick santelli, i'm out here in dayton getting a first-hand look at some of the excess capacity in this country. still, i can't understand why the 30-year bond went below 3.5% today. maybe you can help illustrate what's going on. what does that tell us? >> i think it tells me that, you know, at some point we're going to have

let's check in with rick santelli up in chicago at the cme. rick? >> well, judge, it's a fascinating day because here we are virtually on the highs on the dow and we've gone from 275 to 272 on a ten-year which leads any rational person to believe that a lot of these selling we've seen in the last several days is washing out some positions that were long, whether it was due to the ukraine or due to different views on the impact of weather into the statistics. now, if you look at an intraday chart you can see that, of course, 8:30 eastern the drop in jobless claims played into the dynamic of higher rates and fuel that reversal. here's the chart i like the best. everybody here is talking about we didn't have 3d printing in '09, we didn't have, i guess, cb printing on the same level we have, either, because if you look back to march 9th of 2000 the ten-year note yield was a dozen basis points higher than it is right now. so basically 386. we're hovering at 272. i find it fascinating that that's the way things have run up. it's very difficult to make muc

. >> rick santelli up in chicago. nobody watches treasuries closer than rick. rick, what do you make of the move today? it was dramatic. we highlighted it at midday. and the yields kept dropping as the day went on. >> they did. we stood on a close of 264, 265. we're down about nine basis points. and i would go so far as to say half of the basis point drop had to do with crimea. i agree with the panel. crimea is going to be an issue, if you live there, who is going to be your boss? but geopolitically, natural gas is going to make it all work out. that's the factor to pay attention. as far as yields, look no further than guy adami, quoting the yields from february 3rd. low yield was 144. tens was 257. eight basis points away. 30s was six basis points away. this year for treasury's been an easy trade. the momentum for the most part has been all to the downside in yields. up side in price. when you look at all the issues globally, and i wouldn't dismiss any of them, europe, look at deutsche bank stock. china, look at recent data. average it out because of the lunar

with us for more on today's events, michael borman, the ceo of franklin square and our very own rick santellilcome to all of you. rick, since we haven't heard from you in a couple hours since the fed's statement first hit, what you do you make of janet yellen's press conference? >> you know, i thought she did a very good job, but to me it's not -- i have to admit, i'm not looking for poise. i'm not looking for the empathy. all those are fine qualities. i'm just there for the steak and potatoes, okay? and with regard to that avenue, i really don't think we learned a lot more. forward guidance or forecasts a couple years down the road would be like talking to a horse track handicapper telling you who is going to place two years from now in a race. i don't think anybody has that kind of vision. i do think that the market -- i think the market said it all. flattening yield curve. holy cow, it was huge, and there was a lot of selling before the stateme statement, really made me skraven my head. >> stephanie, what do you make of it? how significant is it she's talking about a shorter time frame if

mark tepper, and our own rick santelli. and, folks, i begin our conversation quoting from today's edition of ""the financial times" which quotes seth coll sethklarman. he says any time in which the s&p 500 jumps 32% while corporate earnings barely increase should be cause for concern, not further exuberance. he says eventually buy the dips will be replaced with what was i thinking? ron mullencamp, i feel the need to go to you. you're a value investor like seth klarman. >> what seth is saying will be true eventually, but the assumption that the market going up 30% when the economy didn't do all that much assumes it was fairly priced a year ago. frankly, we think a year ago it was discounting a bit higher inflation. inflation has come in. it's about 1.7%. frankly, we think it's fairly priced for about a 2% to 2.25% inflation. there's all kinds of things out there that can hit it. you know the litany as well as i do, and the bears always have better specific arguments, but the ultimate bull argument is that this country and th

quincy crosby, todd verchet, rod morgan, and our own steve liesman and rick santelli. steve, i will start with you. i mean, i know rick always gives treasury auctions a grade. what grade would you give this jobs report today? >> i'd say give it like a "b" considering that it had a tough time getting to school because of the weather and taking the test. i think amid what was clearly a tough climatic month, that at the end of the day you're going to -- 175,000 is a good number to have. there were some other signs of strength, bringing people back into the workforce and higher wages was a good one, too. >> rick, if you want to look at how this is being interpreted, look to the ten-year. 2.8%. do we start having the conversation about 3% next? >> well, i think so. you know, being a technician first, any kind of a close today for the week above 2.76% probably augusters you're supposed to have more of a short presence looking for resistant at 2.85% and 3%. it isn't only the economy and isn't only what's going on with the equity markets and how much they have surged. i also th

let's get to rick santelli at the cme with a check on the bond market. rick? >> hi. tell you, what a fascinating couple of days it's been since the fed statement and press conference on wednesday. we see that equities, of course, have rebound. yesterday we negated all the downside of wednesday. and today we're getting a bit more. but, it's a tale of two treasury markets. the flattening that was caused by short maturities like 2, 3, and 5-year, their interest rates moved higher. then they've pretty much died at that higher level. the long end, never really saw big spike in rates and it's actually moderating. we're about ready to slip under 2 3/4 in tens. so what does it all mean? many traders and this is the big talking point, think that the curve has just had a re-set, re-adjustment. if you want to know the direction of interest rates it's hard for them to envision rising rates if the 10 and 30 don't contribute to that. ongoing trying to handicap via trade. i would urge all technicians and viewers in the trading game to see which side of 275 the tens close on and may

rick santelli, always good to see you. >>> it's tweet time. yesterday the stupor star and spokesman for the company tweeted this. quote, my phone just erased everything it had in it and rebooted. one of the sickest feelings i've had in my life. james quickly deleted the tweet and trieded to down play with it additional tweets but the damage was done. so we're asking now, how should samsung exact revenge on lebron for his tweet? tweet us @squawkstreet. your answer on the show next. ♪ geico motorcycle. see how much you could save. for tapping into a wealth of experience. ♪ for access to one of the top wealth management firms in the country. ♪ for a team of financial professionals who provide customized solutions. for all of your wealth management and retirement goals, discover how pnc wealth management can help you achieve. visit pnc.com/wealthsolutions to find out more. >>> squawk on the tweet. lebron james, a spokesman for samsung tweeted displeasure with his mobile device yesterday. he wrote, my phone just erased everything it had in it and r

rick santelli in chicago watches them closer than anybody. dramatic turn today, and it seems to me to be pretty swift, pretty severe in half of a session. >> absolutely. i'll tell you what, judge, the big story i've been speaking of for most of of 2014 is if you want to know what bonds and interest rates are going to do, think about there is no alternative the stocks. when stocks look dicey look for yields to move lower. today is an exception. after extensive calls to people all over the globe that trade fixed income in a variety of areas, including treasuries, here's what i've come up with. about 70% to 75% of the drop in yields after the retail sales data, they believe was crimea and they believe the remaining 30% is due to china, and that many, including myself, watch it second by second, this move was actually led by the interest rate sector with rates moving lower, unlike much of the move that we had in january which was completely led by the equity markets. >> rick, your know, 274, i think is where this day started, or thereabouts in the

it with our closing bell exchange, abigail doolittle, jack bouroudjian, rob morgan, and our own rick santelli. abigail, what about this herky-jerky intraday kind of market we've had lately? that's been the pattern we've seen for the last few weeks. what do you make of that? >> you have really nailed it on the head there, bill. there are two things that stand out to me right now, and that is one of them. the intraday volatility. it reflects increasing uncertainty on the part of investors around the fundamentals and frankly it feels like the wheels are coming off a little bit. we have the high flyers falling, biotech, some of the technology names. we also have copper breaching long-term multiyear support. let's not forget europe. the dax is down almost 10% from its recent highs. all of this volatility, i think it's about to become unhinged. i think we're about to see a pullback similar to the beginning of the year, 6% to 10%, and something else stands out, the ten-year yield. we have bonds rallying in the face of a fed committed to the tape earned also with the fed chairwoman giving a time line

tom carsten and our own rick santelli. ji gemma, your markets were very strong this morning. but you say the damage has been done. what are you talking about? >> it's a chance to buckle up because we're hin for a bumpy ride. the political tension has eased but the damage has been done and most importantly across the world the stocks are still trading on the news. it's looking more likely tit's going to be a difficulty want diplomatic struggle. the ukraine is still approaching bankruptcy and the most important thing we're seeing is the stocks that sold off the most yesterday that are rallying today are in the financial sector and in the tech sector and that's an overcrowded area where stocks -- there are great opportunities there, but they have been overcrowded and expensive, and, therefore, these momentum driven stocks are the ones that are actually trading off this news showing sentiment and political risk is still driving markets. >> it's so interesting, dick, we're probably going to have this kind of uncertainty along the europe/russia line, if you will, for some time. i m

i'm going to start with rick santelli. because of the lack of consensus, mr. market, on what's causing this selloff today, you know, what do you make of that when nobody can agree on why people are selling equities today? >> oh, i don't agree with that at all. just because you have six different aisles at a supermarket being crowded, it's no reason to say you don't understand why they all want to get into the store. they do. so you have one aisle that's nervous about how the german stock market is trading. one aisle is nervous about the trend in china. both on their data, what they have to back their loans. all that has affected the yuan. we have another aisle looking at the stock market versus the treasury market in terms of where do you want to have your money. i think it all makes perfect sense. the thing that's different today, two things actually. the first is interest rates were leading stocks today. it was a close call, but that's what i've garnered. and i think the second issue is that all those things are proactive on the same session. >> amy, how muc

larry mcdonald, adam and rick santelli. jack, what do you make of this market these days? kind of hanging in there. >> it is hanging in there. bill, you have to be really impressed with what's been happening, especially after the year we had last year. the real question is how many portfolio managers that were chasing returns at the end of last year will be doing exactly the same thing going into the end of the quarter. i think over the course of the next two weeks it will be a question that's answered. >> all the same, adam, we got to talk about what's happening in china right now. and the extent to which we've been talking about the losses in copper and iron ore and some of these areas. we've been talking about the credit growth in that economy and what happens as it starts to slow. of what should investors here be focused on, be worried about, if anything, when it comes to the developments there in china specifically. >> well, it's interesting because the chinese economic rebalance, which will take them from about a 45% to 50% investment-led economy to more consumption

bill smith, jason pride and our own rick santelli. and, kenny, does anybody want to be long this market going in? the big referendum on crimea possibly joining russia is on sunday, and washington says they will stand ready, whatever that means, should this referendum pass. what does that mean for the stock market? >> here is what i think. i think that's what's baked into the stock market. i think people expect crimea is going to go. i think they expect the u.s. and eu will stand up and impose sanctions. as long as russia doesn't move into ukraine, i actually think that the market is expecting that. you might see the market attempt to rally on monday as a result. >> jason, what do you think and how does it play into the decisions people are making? >> sure. this year we've been saying that investors need to be constructively positioned. that means hague a littving a l of overweight to equities. economics are relatively decent. you might be pushing higher generally. what we haven't been recommending is we've been telling investors be ca

the tea party movement was officially born five years ago this week when our own cnbc colleague rick santelli eed rant on air. >>> here's rick back in 2009. >> this is america. how many of you people want to pay for your neighbor's mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills. raise your hand. president obama, are your listening? ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today. but with less energy, moodiness, and a low sex drive, i had to do something. i saw my doctor. a blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. we talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal in about two weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 1

does rick santelli like to scream? do bears hibernate in the woods? have a market that in the last 12 months has only gone down 6%. you have to say to yourself, something else is going on. in fact, i think we have a new philosophy which is called sell on the troop deployment and then buy when they go back into the barracks. we're looking at things in an entirely different things. what carol said is critical. when we went down to 2.6% on the ten-year, that was a time when everybody out there could change the duration orç amount of flu wation they were going to have. i predict you will see -- we said this last week -- when you start to see the economy get numbers without the weather, you will start to see it grow and we will look back going the good old days of 2.6% on the treasury. >> sara? >> is that a classic nathan bull market mentality where you can shake off the bad news and climb back up? you have been through enough bull markets in your life. the question is what does it take to break it? we didn't even see a correction during the january volat