i want to go back to rick santelli's argument. we need to watch the u.s. dollar. the u.s. dollar will be a key indicator in terms of how that inflation comes into the country. it seems to me today we're not experiencing that and we're not likely to see that. >> the dollar against what, the europeans since the world economy is so great and the u.s. economy is so great they are thinking of putting neglect interest rates into the june 5th meeting. we're semi crippled as it is so why is the stronger dollar good again? >> stronger dollar is the indicator that that the inflation is subdued. >> stock inflation doesn't count. >> the fact that the dollar has been strengthening. >> it comes not because the u.s. economy is so strong but because other economies are so week. that's the reverse. >> we're still the island of prosperity and money flows into the united states. >> the bell is ringing. we have to go at this point. >> everybody else, hank you, always good to see you. have a good day. >> i could have kept that going for 25 minutes. heading into the close, picking up a couple.

rick santelli has the "santelli exchange." >> hey, as long as that nasdaq doesn't close below 3996 we'rehow many times did we hear analysts and smart analysts, smart economists, smart strategists, it sounds like a smart comment, things are pretty good. corporate balance sheets are really clean. i agree. but does that really tell us anything tangible about future economic growth, future levels of growth, future levels of disinflation or inflation? it really doesn't. corporate balance sheets, first and foremost, are loaded with a record amount of debt. the good news is, it's at historically low levels. so one thing we want to think about right off the bat, when you have a lot of debt at what is considered historically low rates, you can feel pretty proud of yourself, except it looked through the prism that rates will be higher at some point. but the whole concept changes a bit if rates actually don't go higher. or if rates stay the same or if, god forbid, rates actually go lower. and it really isn't giving you any degree of investing strategic confidence to know that a corporation has a go

rick santelli joins us with the "santelli exchange." rick. >> you girls are having too much fun out there. all right. i know there's a lot of fibbing that goes on. there's a lot of pinocchios in newspapers. but there's one form of fibbing that i actually like, and it's not a bad thing. it's retracements. we've gone through a litany combinations of retracements on the "santelli exchange," but maybe none will be any more important than what we're doing today, especially in light of what's going on with the euro versus the dollar, and ultimately the june 5th ecb meeting. and even though it is about foreign exchange, interest rates, differentials, will figure prominently into how it turns out. all right. let's go to the charts. this is roughly a chart going back to may 2013 on 10-year note yields. and the key highlights are that we settle just below 3 and just above 3, so you have the double top. the most recent double top was new year's eve of last year, at 3.03. so it makes it pretty easy on a number of levels, because we have the 1.63, wh

let's get to rick santelli and check in on the bond pits. hey, rick. >> hi, carl.s an upward drift to yields but i caution traders say don't draw huge conclusions from that yet. doesn't mean it ultimately won't be important. look at a one and two-day, you can see what i'm discussing. smidgen above yesterday's highs. seems as though the equities have found their legs especially on this holiday shortened scenario with early closes in many markets tomorrow and markets closed monday. open the chart up month to date you get a feel for things. that low that you see on that month to date chart that represents the lowest level on a closing basis going back to july. but maybe more important, is how high the bounce in yields has gone or not gone. remember, 2.57 to 2.60 what technicians say is a minimal retrace and haven't gotten there yet. the month to date from the boon perspective. we know how important overseas rates have been, whether the good sovereigns or not so good sovereigns. i would tend to think that we should be looking at the 140 level as a key pivot. down at 1.

rick santelli is there with the santelli exchange. good to see you, rick. >> good morning, sara. ing the time this friday morning, sir. >> always a pleasure m santelli. >> all right. so on thursday we have the big ecb meeting and, of course, i want your opinion, what do you think the ecb is going to do on thursday? mario draghi specifically? is he going to have to dust off that ba zu ka dust off the bazooka. >> my thoughts is he will do something with that. and it could be as benign as lowering interest rates, going negative on short rates, or it could be quantitative easing. i think it's very up in the air, but you can bet their going to do something. >> let's keep this real simple, mark, okay? a central bank the side of magnitude and importance as the european central bank embarking on this, in 2014, does that make a good statement or bad statement about their economy? >> rick, i think what the ecb has done, as you know, is lent money to their banks at a quarter to one 1%. they encouraged -- >> i'm going to pull a dc reporter on you, are they pleased or displeased with their eco

rick santelli, are we slicing and dicing too much here? >> well, let's look at the real facts here, okay. i believe that plosser was around 12:30 eastern, and i believe dudley is around 1:00 eastern. the dow yesterday closed at 16,511. it was at 16,4 before any of this impacted the market. we're already down 111 points, okay? so in terms of what they actually said, it wasn't plosser as much as dudley, and what dudley is saying, my cubs are what, 14 games below .500. it would fighting over which seat you wanted to sit at at the world series this october. they are talking about an exit, what comes first, the reason the messy exit can't be anything but messy is because right now it's the prequel to the real exit that is causing all of this. this is the beginning of the exit. everybody knows that the fed and the central banks of the world are losing control of the markets. they want to stay on the offense, but they can't stay on the offense because the equity markets aren't feeling it, and the weather bounce was never really a big weather boun

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning. >> good morning, sara. thank you.ial guest for the last trading day in front of a three-day weekend, ira harris. first of all, for cnbc to have putin on this morning. everybody was glued on to it. made a about boatload of news. your impression? >> we've talked about putin and his stance. pretty much as -- and he's invoking, his stance on ukraine, everybody forgets history, i don't forget history sos easily, james baker and others made a commitment to -- >> gorbachev days. >> rudy of germany there would be no movement east of the german unification of nato. >> we could argue who lies, who's judging, misjudging. but on a simple foreign policy level his arguments with nato are grounded in facts. >> well -- >> to some extent. >> right. everybody has a different interpretation of those facts. but the two plus four talks they were called, amazing nobody has gone to jim baker here, about as missing in action as our good friend gerhard schroeder. there are more arguments here than meets the eye and putin is invoking that. >>

rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.hot hot inflation data and yields going down down down. how counterintuitive is that. that's what happens when you go down the central bank rabbit holes around the world. the bank of england thinking they're going to keep rates low longer than many anticipated. the ecb trying to figure out ways to move interest rates down. like it's done a whole lot to help things like housing in this country. as you look at the comps going back down the curve, let's do a chart of april, for 2s and 5s, we haven't had closing yields in this area since roughly about the middle of april, look towards 10s, we'll move that chart back towards november of last year, because we are toying, yes, we are toying with that elusive close under 2.57 from february 3rd that will shift the comp back to halloween of last year. if we really want to pay attention to what's going on, we need to look at the price of other sovereigns, whether you look at the french versus our ten-year at minus 75, there's 75 basis points lowe

from one floor to the other, let's get the bond pit action, rick santelli in the cme in chicago. ning, rick. >> good morning carl. i know the housing numbers were much better than expected. we all agree. we also need to be very objective. the existing home market is bigger than the new home market. look at multifamily, i believe they went from 303,000 on an annualized basis to 423. that's, what, close to 40% increase whereas single family moved from 644 to 649. that's 644,000 to 649,000 on an annualized basis. that's a little less than 1%. not that it isn't good news. but in the context of the entire housing market, we need to acknowledge that multifamilies have been on a tear as of late and the economic implications are that family creation single family creation is more robust for the economy. now if we look at ten-year note yields they're up a couple basis points today. they're down about 11 basis points on the week. one day and a two day are pretty interesting. if you open it up to july, you know, many were saying we didn't close the lowest yield since july. depend where you m

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rick santelli with the santelli exchange. on everybody wants to know the answer to. what's the big next move in the stock market? i think our guests, one of the most famous technicians, at least on this trading floor, tom demark from demark an lytics thank you for taking the time this morning, tom. >> great to be here, rick. >> tom, quickly before we get into the thick of it, are you bullish or bearish on stocks for the next large move? let me rephrase, the next big move that's 10% or larger do you think it's going to be upside or downside some. >> i think downside. we have modest move this week and then the market should top finally. >> finally. all right. well listen, can you give us the insights as to why you're making that statement? >> okay. we use a natural market rhythm type of analysis and our market analysis was telling us the market should have topped after the october rally, late december 31st or mid january as we said on the air at the time. many of the markets did top temporarily, and you did get peaks in the nasd

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rick santelli is in chicago with that. hey, rick. >> no, you can't. between interpreting the data and what the market's interpretation is. as far as secretary perez, i'll tell you what, he's talking about just like bouncing around, around this labor force participation rate. but we're not bouncing around up here. we're bouncing around down here. see the distortion that he's trying to put forth is, we're bouncing around. now basically the same levels we were in december. no, no, no. look at the following chart. only one issue that matters. we're bouncing around at a level that in order to get to real comp when was the last time we were at or below this level was february of 1978. see, so we're not bouncing around above ground. we're bouncing around in a cave that's underground. now as far as the fixed income market, you know, listen, we created a lot of private sector jobs. the headline nonfarm was great. now that's the one side. the establishment. the household survey was nothing like that. and the reason the market is doing this and we'll be talking

let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the "santelli exchange." hey, rick. >> hi, carl.ayla. you know, when we talk about treasuries, i think you really have to start looking at the spread relationships. so as i'm talking, what you're going to see is a five-year chart of spanish 10s versus bunds. the italian 10s versus bunds and a 10-year chart of the treasuri treasuries versus bunds. and why is this important? because in the end, i think that the effect on bund yields, 10-year bunds, based on what we see in the southern european areas, whether it's italy, whether it's spain, portugal, greece to some extent, that i can't tell you how much on that relative value trade it's affected bunds, along with the weaker economy, but it has. then, of course, the bunds come back to spread against our 10-year, against the gilts, so what ends up happening, it's like a daisy chain. these valuations, in my opinion, aren't market driven. they're manipulation driven. they affect bunds. bunds affect tens, and the whole thing becomes very difficult to quantify. that's why i call it kind of s

let's see how the bond market is faring with rick santelli. hey, ricky. >> hi, sue. know, it's an amazing day because of the yield curve. i know we had a ten-year note auction, but all the action down four basis points, sends those maturity on the short end that have been stubborn when it comes to rallies, mostly selling off, so look at the intraday five. 164, close to 168. look what it's doing to the spreads? look at -- so we are steepening. there hasn't been a lot of steepening of late. year to date back to that ten-year, once again hovering around that february 3rd 257, 258 area, doesn't seem like we could close above it, but that's what we want to monitor. all that movement in interest rates really hasn't changed the landscape. still hovering at the lowest level since the fall of 2012. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. good energy for gaslog. next our exclusive interview with the company's ceo on why the market for liquefied -- mike benefit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-8

rick santelli was just talking about a 1.45 treasury. that's an incredible pick up in yield, but the stock is also 14 times current earnings, so the earnings yield, if you put that upside down, is 7%. and plus you had another, you've got a double digit value when you buy intel today. we just heard the ceo. there's an attractive package of potential products and strategy going into the future. that's an impressive man. i think google is is similar. i think in the case of ibm, you have these similar stories with old tech, as they refer to them. >> i basically asked him whether or not he sees tech in a bubble or jon ford asked him that. sounds to me you do not see that. >> no, i don't. i think it was a great interview, by the way. china as well. but i think, sue, that what you have is a situation where at the extreme edge, twitter -- through the ubers, i just heard a second ago, teslas, you have a fringe element of the stock market you and i have seen before, which is ridiculous valuations. there certainly is a bubble and it's starting to g

on that note, let's get to rick santelli in chicago who's got more. hi, rick. >> hi, carl. only a congressman, but he's also a doctor. psychologist. welcome, congressman murphy. >> great to be with you, rick. >> all right. now i looked at this data and basically seems to me the house energy and commerce committee took the advice of the administration when questioned numerous times as to ultimately how many people have paid with regard to the affordable care act/obama care. they didn't know. they said you know, you have to talk to the insurers. that's what this committee did. tell us in simple form what their findings were, congressman. >> indeed. we asked the insurance companies how many people did sign up and paid their premium. the president said 8 million have signed up. we found two out of three. on top of that it's important to know who signed up. what we found is, that most of the people who signed rupp actually over age 50 and less than 25% or so are 18 to 35. the administration has said you need about 40% of the sign-ups to be in the younger category, the young, hea

let's move from equities to bonds and go to rick santelli at the cme in chicago. rick?. we have to start where the action is at. we have to start in europe. ecb meeting no change of rates. now, as you look at the euro, remember, we definitely, you know, missed 140 by that much. yes. very close. then mr. draghi started to talk about issues that were suppressing the currency lower, like maybe we're going to do something next meeting. so you could see the intraday, the long-term chart. we are still hovering virtually in a zone of pricing against the greenback we haven't seen since october of 2011. that is not where all of the action is at. let's look at the fixed income markets. one hour from now we have jean-claude trichet. this is an italian ten-year versus ten-year bund. the spread at 150 hasn't touched that level since may of 2011, as you can see on that chart. the dynamic of the southern european interest rate benchmarked against sovereigns is a global force in sovereign trade. trust me, it's big. now, at a time where most of the news, even though we don't really beli

. >>> here to interpret it to us, rick santelli. >> hi, tyler. wild times, though i have to say very orderly, and many technical issues, largely expected by many of the traders, look at the intraday of 10. open the chart up year to date. it's the same low as the low of the year virtually 257 is currently or 2014 low-yield close of the year. technicians say we're going to go through it. i can't say that i disagree. the longest guy on the curve, definitely comping, but will be comping to june for a while, because they traded close to 320 last june. if we look at 5s versus 30s, a new flattening, this means zero interest rates aren't in sync with the market's interpretation the last charge, the dollar index -- so everybody decided they were fixated on the structural implications. that rally dissipated quite quickly. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. let's look at gold, having its best day in more than a month. bob pisani referred to some of the gold mining stocks. today gold is up 1860 an hour at 1302. that's a 1.4% move. silver also

let's meet today's starting lineup, pete, murph, joe, jon, trading, and rick santelli in chicago, and steve liesman here next to me with news on the economy. it seems gdp for the quarter, projections are getting uglier. >> incredibly shrinking. we have the cnbc rapid update, where we average out the surveys of eight economists, the forecast of eight economists, the tracking survey. when the data comes in, the trade data, less than expected, down 0.1%. sorry, a mistake in that. the range is positive 0.1 to .5. so basically now negative and going more negative. the more negative this gets the harder it will be to come back and be positive. there's still more data to come. the snapback is intact, the 3.5%. >> you get a look, guys, at why bond yields are sitting with a 2.5 whatever lately, or just about at 2.6. i mean, there's some concern in the market, again, that yields are telling the real story, not stocks, which are still near all-time highs. joe? >> yeah, you know, i -- somewhat i would agree with that. so a yield is at 2.5, a yield is at 3. i think warren buffett talked about this

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. in less than an hour from now there will be a dedication ceremony for the national september 11th memorial museum in lower manhattan. bob pisani is there with more. good morning, bob. >> good morning, carl. and gray skies down here, perhaps appropriately, ceremony will begin in 45 minutes. former mayor mike bloomberg, chairman of the museum will be opening that following president obama and then followed by survivors who will be speaking as well as family members. this museum has been many, many years in the making, carl. the tour begins seven stories down on the ground level. you'll hear recordings of frantic phone calls that were made at that time, you'll see the rusted steel remains of the tower. you'll see the famous pmetal cross, a battered fire truck, survivor stairs are there, became quite famous, the pathway for thousands of office workers who escaped when the buildings collapsed. you'll see thousands of photographs. p perhaps more controversially, there's a placement of unide

rick santelli.nalyst meeting in new york city and faber joins us now from one of ibm's digital experience labs with the chair and ceo ginni rometty. take it away. >> thanks very much. we're happy to be here in midtown manhattan at the digital experience lab with ginni rometty the chairman and ceo first time and we're very happy obviously to be here and have you. thank you. >> thank you, david. glad to be here. >> first off, well, we're here, obviously, in a digital experience lab where you bring your customers, your clients and help them sort of figure out ideas and what they can do in terms of a lot of different things. i know we're going to spend a lot of time talking about these new initiatives and this is not that -- but growth initiatives at this company during the course of this interview but when it comes to growth, there is certainly a question as to whether so many of the different things, data, cloud, mobile, watson, whether they are incremental or whether they are truly going to change th

now to rick santelli with the "santelli exchange" in chicago. >> thanks, judge.we'll have an abbreviated one, but it will be fun. we'll talk about three major misconceptions in the marketplace. the first one is, you know, you have to be crazy to recommend owning treasuries. we've all heard it. many of the experts out there just can't believe and continue to say it, maybe they'll be right at this point forward, but i just want to point out one thing. total return, which is the price appreciation and the income stream based on the coupon for a 10 year, as of this point in time, one minute ago, 6.3%. total return on a ten. 13.3% total return on a 30-year bond. second is misconception. the reason rates have moved lower and the price higher is because everybody is short. yeah, see, this is the sell side of the card. everybody is short. there is two sides to a trading card. i guess that means on the buy side it must be, you know, g-o-d, god, divine providence, because where i come from, there's two parties to a trade. i understand. now, the third one is that the govern

rick santelli has the results and the demand. what does it look like, ricky? >> reporter: remember, it's 30-year bonds. it's been one of the most productive parts of the yield curve in terms of higher price/lower yield, hovering close to the lowest yield since june. this auction gets a dog minus, "d" minus. this is pretty much your stencil for a rotten auction. so the yield at auction was 3.44. the one issue market was trading 3.41ish -- excuse me, 3.40. so we really traded through this. the bid to cover 2.09, weakest since august of 2011. the indirects are about the only thing that was decent at 40.4. 8.4 on direct. the wkest since march of '13. this yield at auction is the lowest yield for a 30-year at auction since june of '13. so maybe too much of a good thing. it's already had a lot of rally. it seems like investors shied away. maybe a bad move after we see rates come down more. but a dog minus on the last of 69 billion in supply. tyler, back to you. >> a "d" minus from professor santelli. hmm. all right. wow! oh. >>> so yellen giving another boost to the

rick santelli here with the santelli exchange for thursday.nd it seems to me when it comes to rates we need to be very open minded. look at a chart of the difference between ten year rates and ten year boom rates. often years you can clearly see something changed in 2012. you heard simon hobbs earlier, the dutch are gate. great historians. i used to follow a lot of business out of holland and the netherlands. they are historians whether it's about their own history, global history or financial history. so to see hundreds of years of records thrown out the window in terms of how low the rates are it really does mean something. but we have to be open to change. now that you see that chart let's make it from march 1st. we've gone from 121 a difference a of 1.21 to 1.06, 1.07. if this continues to widen or excuse me, tighten back up it could mean maybe rates slow down to the down side so we want to pay attention. now, when it comes to rates, one of the big things i hear constantly, heard it four times today that the move in rates is technical. i t

to the windy city, we want to get to rick santelli.have big bucks, right, rick? >> yeah, and i know there's this big wand of success in this country, but it doesn't make sense to me as a free marketeer. i wish everybody would have big tax problems next year, meaning make a lot of money, pay a lot of taxes. i think it's good for the count are. there's not a smidgen of objectively in my opinion when we see the current administration talk about the wealth effect, because whether it's the federal reserve or, i think, many of the programs, those on the left of the aisle, i think that what you see is that being affluent is something that many of the current politicians in power actually push. and i'll give you a couple of examples. especially on housing. on housing, diane olick did a great report, q1, year over year, all cash deals, 42.7 versus a year ago, 19%. you know, come on. who has all cash? well, you know, the upper echelons. the other thing we had on yesterday, on "power lunch," that i liked with the big draft last night and yesterda

we should have rick santelli in the segment and what would you say?bailing out part-time that shouldn't be bailed out. >> we were bailing out banks that shouldn't be bailed out. >> nobody knew what a credit default swap until 2008 and we had 65 trillion of them and more than the world's entire economy and after the fact, we should have helped the little guy, right, maybe if you were a democrat in the office at the time you might have said that, but it was so big and so pervasive. this was a house of cards where we weren't trying to replace one little wobbly card. every card was wobbling and we didn't know how to keep it all together. >> kelly, the passion with which noemi criticizes some aspects of the bailouts and geithner's tenure underscores how strongly people still feel about this crisis and the way it was handled or mishandled depending on your world view. i was at an event recently where geithner spoke to a group and i was shocked in a way at the harsh questioning he endured. >> and this is from a group that you would think would be sympathetic

. >> rick santelli, do you see low 2s on the 10-year at some point? >> i think there is a 60% chance that we could see low 2s. i think there is a 340% chance e could see 1.60. i'll tell you what, i like jim bianco a lot, i have him on all the time. but i think even though you can say everybody's offsides and it is short covering, why are they offsides? what made the positions what they are? that really is -- if you don't answer that you don't learn enough to trade beyond this, in my opinion. i think look no further than europe. they've managed to put rates for countries whose economies are still highly questionable well below levels of true value. that is coming back to -- i think draghi's book about how i use my bazooka in one is about to have a new ep log written and it isn't going to be pretty. greg ip talked about a bad day in europe. but it wasn't that. the european data, the german gdp was actually better than they were looking for. so why did bund yields really go down? for the same reason that our yields are going down. relative value. we saw

rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago.> i know there is always ongoing debate but once again, let's keep it simple. where's that dow? up triple digits. let me think. blindfolded, where might interest rates be? little higher, you think? it continues to be the dynamic to pay attention to. look at the one-day chart of tens. rates are up, dow's up. look at the two-day chart. we opened up yesterday and rates were up for part of the day, then they went down. why? because the equity markets really started to sell off. they were down about 111 points before any fed speak, because i still think that everybody's clock has been broken. seemed pretty clear to me yesterday. 12:30 eastern when we had the first fed speak hit the wires unless somebody had a copy the traders didn't see and the break really started before that. if we look at year to date of tens, we can see of the selling was in the first four and a half weeks. then it was really dropping but we never really retraced. just sideways. this is important. because this is the st

karen hughes, greg ipp, john manma manley, and rick santelli to explain what the 10-year note is trying to tell us right now. greg, the fed very quickly wants to say that the economy did not do well in the first quarter because of the weather. now there is a possibility we could go negative for the first quarter gdp. what's going on here? >> i think that the fact that all through the first quarter they continue to taper in spift fact we had lousy numbers on employment and retail sales. tells us how high the bar is to deviate from this path of tapering. shows a very high degree of confidence in the economy. i think that even though the economy will not do as well as they think this year, it suggests that they seem very fixated on getting policy at least from the point of view of quantitative easing back so something normal really soon. >> at least they are holding to a pattern, staying with the game. 10 billion a month. if you thought this was a volatile market, just wait until that taper is finish. comments day, as tapering ends most likely in october and the market will get a little bi

rick santelli is standing by with the santelli exchange. ybody wants to know when higher rates will arrive. 2014 wasn't a good year for pontificators, analysts, economists, whatever you want to call them. i'm not making fun of them. markets are quite difficult. when you have so much of the market under pressure by agency like the federal reserve and treasury and all the global issues it becomes that much more difficult. look at the following charts. these go back to march, not today, only to march. looking at the 10 year, look at the spread there and see even though it's flattening, we can see stabilization in the spreads and steepening going on. that's very relevant, from a domestic standpoint from our own curve. look at a 10 year chart of 10 versus boons. and looks like it's pausing at the very most. why is this important? because the yield curve, anybody who played baseball, knows it's a curveball. you have to spin it. it has rotation going on. when it comes to yields the 30 year bond is up about 11, 12% total return since the year began.

let's get to rick santelli. good morning rick. welcome tom.is no question that we are bouncing back. april is independent mading an upturn. inventories are coming in the supply chain. what the real issue is what the sustainability is what the pops are going to be. we had an inventory will be last year. are we going to see sustained growth building new inventories? as new orders increase companies are finding they are meeting that demand for new orders. that could lead. >> we are seeing transportation prices higher. that is going to flow through into transportation costs for companies and that will lead to increased pressure in pricing. why do you think the employment index looks so much better? >> since then we have bounced back. >> tom thank you. it is informative to learn what has been an what will be an important part of the economy. >> thank you very much. real estate is not your mom's market anymore. simple online listings are becoming a think of the past. find out how the new generation is selling homes. one of the stars of bravo's new s

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sara.ison basis is always based on closing levels. so at 2.44, if we were to close right here, it would be the lowest yield close since june 20th of last year. so we were initially in july, we keep comping back farther and farther. you know the drill plp treasuries are really augering that something is fishy in the global economy. and i agree. but i think what's fishy is a red herring. there's so many red herrings out there. it's amazing to me that we have a global economy that's calibrated in managing things like rates down to very low levels, predicated on the back of much debt, and yet we can look at it equity market, globally, whether it's the dax or the dow or the s&p, or the french stock market, we can see that they go up, but the amount of kicking the tires with regard to that activity, is minimal, even though we know that there are earnings discussions to have that may be simpler than trying to dissect what's going on with rates but we are calibrated for virtually extremely low inte

rick santelli is the man with the mojo at the cme. hi, rick.ures have closed in trading for everything that doesn't have equities in it. foreign exchanges, treasuries. as you look at the intraday chart, cash mart is open for another 25 minutes. we see yields are down, despite the fact that the we canity markets are up a bit. month to date, this is fascinating, as we sit here at the 253 yield, remember or low yield closed was a week ago thursday at 249. since then, this looks to be the sixth close in a row that is in between a yield of 251 and 255. tight range. if we look at a two day of the euro versus the dollar, it's hovering just above 136. these are the lowest yields in over three months. this is very important to contemplate, as we see the june 5th ecb meeting looking to keep a weaker euro, and of course the elections for the european parliamentary group will be fully completed by monday so when we come back on tuesday we'll have a much better idea. tyler, sue, back to you. >> thank you, rick, have a great long weekend. >>> in the fall of

let's head over to rick santelli who's in chicago. hi, rick. >> hi, melissa lee. if we think about the month of may in terms of interest rates, it's pretty easy. here we sit at 246. switch the digits around. we end last month at 264. even though that may seem a lot and it does lately the way everybody talks about the rate dr drop. hook at what happens. we see both of those moving higher meaning they're wide abouting out. treasuries out perform in those two areas so there is credit discrimination going on and i continue to say that gives a lot of credibility to the message of the treasury, whether anybody cares to listen or not. >> always rick san tell lay. thank you very much. enjoy your weekend. with stocks bouncing around. record heise and volatility and lows for the year, where in the heck is this market headed? let's bring them in jim, i really thing we need to consider it but are we overbought in the stock market? >> you know, i don't think so yet. i think this market is being underpinned by what's coming off of main street. i think it's been far better than

let's bring in rick santelli. it's pretty clear, rick, that the treasury market, especially that ten-year note, it's looking at that jobs report with a glass half empty point of view, isn't it? >> you know, i'm not so sure it is. let's go through everything before we get back to the jobs report. remember, it's a four-day weekend in japan because of golden week and japanese put a lot of orders in before they went away for the four-day weekend buying the ultra bond, the longest part of the yield curve and we're hovering right at the lowest yield of the year when we're at the high price, low yield of the day at 257. those dynamics are important. the yield curve, whether it's 2s to 10s or 5 to 10s or 5 to 30s, the king become september of '09. the euro today fell rather dramatically and looked at the headline and within half an hour it readjusted. back to that labor force participation rate. labor secretary and steve liesman see it today. it's the same level today at 62.8 that it was in december of last year and octob

to rick santelli out in chicago at the cme. hi, rick.e're seeing a smidge, just a smidge of steepening today, with 2, 3 and 5-year yields a bit below, just several base points below where they settled. as you look at the intraday it's virtually unchanged. open that up, we're hovering at ten-month low yields. yes, i know we had 249 sentiment, we're at 251. we'll call it a zone. let's open a chart up on bund yields for one year, almost precisely to the day one years since they've been in the low 130s zone. the last chart is the dollar/yen. we've been on and on about how it correlates to ten-year rates. a sentiment we haven't seen since early february. >>> thank you very much, rick. all right. let's look at shares of pfizer and astrazeneca. right now pfizer shares up a full percent, astrazeneca is down 11.5%. the british drug maker rejected a sweetened and final takeover bid that valued the company at $118 billion. extra would present significant risks for shareholders, end quote. pfizer had hoped to create the world's largest company, but

i've had this argument with rick santelli over and over again. when you talk to portfolio managers, one of the reasons they give you they're in cash is because they see what is happening in the ten-year. what i worry about is we start to see this market start to move. we're trading around a 17 multiple on that number. if we expand to 1 multiple, that is going to be the type of move that leaves a lot of people crashing their head. >> do you agree with that in general, kenny? >> i somewhat agree with that. i'm not sure any longer how many, we've been talking about it and talking about it. >> that doesn't seem to be culling. the macro news, reply call news out of ukraine was actually very positive, certainly a and. >> we'll leave it at that. gentlemen, good to see you. jack, come back soon. we miss you. >> i will. >> ty, up to you. >>> sue, china firing another shot. eamon javers is in washington. eamon? that's right, the chinese government putting a lot of pressure on big-time american companies. i'll tell you who's involved when we come back. when

rick santelli is back. you're where the action is, ricky. >> absolutely. i'm where the action is.he chart says it all. in the mid-50s yesterday and dabbled close to 246 yesterday, back close to 250. steve gave great reasons but i think left the best one out. depending when we close we could be coming to the lowest yield klose since last summer. dividends, and microsoft we saw dominic talk about it, trading about 40, 3% dividends. here's a chart of what microsoft looks like, and if it isn't for the kool-aid pop we had the last several years people believe they're comfortable between 28 and $30. should we get a correction in stock? my biggest reason is anybody who traded in '87 knows when stocks go down, yields go down. that 3% dividend down from $40, you need a lot of 3% dividend checks to make the difference. that's the risk we need to talk about if you're called dump fb investing in low yield treasuries. >> a very good point. we're below the 2.5% mark. the dow jones industrial down 194 points. nasdaq composite down 48 better than 1%. and s&p down 200. hedge fund tepper says he is

let's get down to rick santelli. to tell you, rick, there's a few mistries out there -- how did i ever end up on television, stuff like that? this one has to be right up there. what's going on? >> brian, i know you have a big show and you're a cool dude, but all you have to do is watch me just a couple minutes a day. to me i think this has been the easiest trade i've seen in a long time. for a variety of reasons, the biggest reason is here we sit at 254, lowest since the end of october. okay. we have spain's yields just a little above us in the 2810s france's yields way below us, bund yields way below that, in the 130s, and these dynamics have been in place. our treasury market is cheap compared to other treasury markets that look expensive, because the quality of their economies isn't as good. and sellers, okay? sellers were burnt, burnt in january, what's the motivation to sell? i understand that we don't need to see buyers out there, but i think the economy, no matter what you think of it most likely, unless some

bob pill sannist, rick santelli, bob, how are you wrapping up the week? >> i want to show you what whaer talking with momentum stocks. the nasdaq internet, this white line, see this big move up, outperforming the s&p? that green line? then this. this is what we're talking about, the momentum stocks falling apart. there's still no signs of stability. we're still getting stocks that are moving around. 3-d printers, we are automatic obsessed. the stock was 140 a few months ago, now it's 88, vocal jet was $70, i think, in november. it's 13 now. look at x 1, now it's cut in half, $32, 3-d systems, cut in half, 50% drops so far this year. another group, solar stocks, we all were obsessed with them for a while, there's too much summer. look at chinese solar stocks at 2014. ldk, these all trade here. all of them essentially cut in half, so not just biotech and not just internet names. there's a lot of other high priced stock us out there that have also had their real swagz cut, and then they small-cap high growth names that have been cut, but the broader market i

to the bond market now, out in chicago, rick santelli is tracking the action in bonds and in currencies for us. hi, ricky. >> hi, sue. hold on, i have to get my heart rate back down. principal reduction, mr. watt, yeah, that's what we need, 5 1/2 years after the crisis. whoa. back to the market. if you look at intraday, 5, 10 or 30, all three maturities are down five basis points. parallel shift on the yield curve. why? weak data. so any of you viewers and investors out there that want to know what's moving the market. today is a case in point you get to see why the treasury complex may have yields lower than many thought at the end of 2013. if you look at a year-to-date chart, clearly we're knocking at the dar, bund yields, that keeps staircasing lower with no end in sight hovering around 140. two charts reveal a couple things. first of all, and now it's at 136.90, down on the year, that is definitely a helper for the dollar index. tyler, it's all yours. >> rick, thank you very much. 19 billion, a billion for instagram. are those valuations justified or could a bubble be brewing? >>> p

rick santelli is with us. >> hi, sue. i know everybody is debating and everybody seems to want to blame kiev and the ukraine, but i think there's so much more into what's going on with interest rates. remember, it started, you know, not in march, mid march when they had the referendum. not in the third week in february when all that really started hitting the news. it basically started after the streamers came down on new year's eve. as you look at intrasee, see it was down to 252 yield, now hovering at 254. look tess fives. that could be the lower yield close since mid march. and enthink what's very fascinating, to correlate what's going on with the japanese yen. when you look at a two-day chart, or year to date, it really is amazing how they continue to correlate, and where we close today will determine the 28, 29, 30, and 31st of october since we were last at these levels. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. that's how they correlate, one on top of another. >>> housing front now, regulators say fannie and

and for that, we go to rick santelli at the cme. rick, what's the demand? >> reporter: well, tyler, we just capped $95 billion in supply with $29 billion seven years. the grade, "d" minus. actually, the best of breed compared to two "c" plus auctions. the yield, 2.01. right on the screws. that's pretty much the trade that was going on in the market at the top of the 1. the internals, 2.6. on bid to cover, very close to 10 auction average, as is 40.4 on indirects, it's a little light, but you were a little heavy on directs at 24.1. i guess the best news is that dealers only took 35.6%, meaning investors took the rest. "b" minus, well, now it's on to trying to handicap how much lower rates can go. sue, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. we'll see you a little bit later. thank you, ricky. >>> the s&p 500, as i mentioned, hitting a new record high today, zpat d despite showing data contracted in the first quarter. what should you trust? stocks for the economic data? george is co-manager of the morningstar five-star rated vilery balanced fund and lee par

and our own rick santelli. thank you all for joining us today. joe bell, here we sit, all-time high for the s&p 500, a stone's throw away for the dow and, man, you could hear a pin drop. these just not a lot of love for this market still, is there? >> no, there's really not. underneath the surface there are some concerns. the leaders have really been in that territory. those are the larger capps and when you look at the russell 2000 it's pulled back about 10% so investors are telling us that they are a little more risk averse in 2014 so i think short term there's a bit of a concern. the fact that we're not seeing that euphoria or optimism is a good sign going forward out in the next year or so. >> michael fax i want to ask you who you think is in this market because on wall street people are hanging their heads and bemoaning the fact that there seems to be no trading activity and in the meantime td ameritrade showed about a 50% year-on-year jump in revenues. so is it possibly the case that this environment is okay for the retail investor, even if

guess where it is going up, rick santelli. this is the treasury yield for treasuries between 7 and 11-year maturity. look at the spike this month so far. >> this is volume? >> this is volume. >> it's 7 to 11 years but this is the chart that would capture any activity in the trading of the 10-year bond which of course we have seen a big rally in that exact note and of course, yields just going down. people are surprised that they keep going down. >> david kudlow, why is the yield going up and why is there so much interest in the 10-year? that volume speaks loudly, don't you think? >> you mean why is the yield going down on the 10-year or up? >> why is the yield going down and why is there so much volume going into the treasuries right now? >> i think there is a lot at work. i don't know how much we can attribute to economic activity. we've had gdp -- >> a lot. >> -- revised down more 10% today. we know there are more forces at work. u.s. treasury is still the safest investment that exists. with uncertainty around the world, ukr

. >>> to the bond market, rick santelli tracking the action. >> it's very interesting to following mr. tannenbaum, because the world talks as if it's aa fait accompli. >>> it isn't an interest rate story, it's an equity story. always been an equity story the first five years of the year rates are going up. look what i ratchet up with the dow. rates are going back to the 2 and 5 eray. and yes, dudley's comments added to it. >> they're nervous about equities. it's a holiday week. the last chart, another reason they're nervous about ecity. fighting for its life. 14,000, in the states it's so much easier. just watch, 3921 and the nasdaq. that's what you want to watch. trust me, back to you. >> absolutely, you are right. you got a chuckle out of all of us, lassie could have barked and they wouldn't have paid attention anyway. all right. thank you very much. ty, you have to hit the road? >> yeah, i'm going to d.c. for the annual conference, i'll be reporting there all day tomorrow. these folks, stu, are the steward of your mutual fund money, your etf money. 13 trillion dollars in all, and w

. >> rick santelli is tracking the action at the gmc.e going to have a big week next week, ricky. >> absolutely. as we go into the week, ecb is going to be a big event. we're down seven basis points on the week and if you open the chart up you can clearly see since that february 3rd low yield close at 257, all the work we've done and all the excitement we've had now that we're 11 basis points below that february 3rd key, low yield. if we look at it, it's definitely week. open the chart up for a year and a half. it doesn't look that bad, especially with all the huge questions we're all asking regarding the outcome of the ecb meeting. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. the future of central bank policy is back. steve liesman is there with san francisco fed chairman john williams for an exclusive "power lunch" interview. steve. >> tyler, thanks very much. i am joined by fed president john williams and i need to let viewers know there are some i ask from presidents more than others. never done an interview in cleveland. john, let's

rick santelli is tracking the action. >> yeah, this is the top of the world, ma. chicago, futures, treasuries, looking at a two-day chart, pretty much says it all. even though we are actually up two basis points for the day, we're -- look at a bunch of month to day charts. everybody is thinking we'll have a 4% handle. look at a -- ten-year note yields. yeah, we can slide down that, let's look at other areas. let's look at the dollar/yen. it's also taking it on the chin. the euro versus the dallas, there's a lot of extremes going on, but one extreme very few are talking about, that the "financial times quest happened to mention. the 62% standard benchmark at a 20-month low, pay attention to that last chart. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. do you think this house is worth a million? it's coming up here, i promise you. come on, bring me the house. there it is. worth a million? seven homes battling for the coveted top spot in cnbc's million dollar home challenge. we'll take you on a tour next on "power lunch." that's a tub right there, baby. she keep

rick santelli is at the cme. >> we're up several basis points. look at yesterday, exactly the same, at least on the treasury side. the one difference, stocks are holding a bit, so you might not go back down to that 250 level. fresh lows, going back to the 12th of february. let's look at the dollar/yen, open the chart up, we're hovering in the zone, because it really was yesterday that we've traded this week again since february 3rd. sue, tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. two big stories we are watching. netflix sun veiling a bold expansion plan and cisco's scary warning. we'll be back in a moment. requires precision and anattention to detail.g it takes knowledge, hard work and a plan. at baird, we approach your wealth management strategy that same way. as an employee owned firm we have the freedom and resources to create customized financial plans built to last, from generation to generation. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird. the numbers are impressive. over 400,000 new private sector jobs... making new york state numbe