rick santelli in chicago. rick, thanks.ring with famous designer diane von furstenberg to help make google glass a little more stylish. up next, the company that's physically bringing that vision to life. dow's up 35. watching. waiting. for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. could help your business didavoid hours of delaynd test caused by slow internet from the phone company? that's enough time to record a memo. idea for sales giveaway. return a call. sign a contract. pick a tie. take a break with mr. duck. practice up for the business trip. fly to florida. win an award. close a deal. hire an intern. and still have time to spare. check your speed. see how fast your internet can be. switch now and add voice and tv fo

hi, rick. >> good morning and welcome listeners and viewers to the "santelli exchange." to study. a drama or literary work where the main character is brought to extreme sorrow, a consequence of a tragic flaw, moral weakness or inability to cope with unfavorable circumstances. i don't know, the way central bankers around the world are treating money and debt and tragedy, seems there is an aspect of greek tragedy unfolding. i'm not sure what the next act is. let's try to put it together. steve had a great set of interviews last week and one was with a banker from philadelphia. i'd like to play and excerpt, places. >> my guess no better than a lot of market watchers, a lot of people a bit puzzled, what's driving that. hard to imagine whether it will continue to fall. whether it's geopolitical concerns, concerns about china and the ukraine, i think we really don't know. >> i tell you what, listen, i'm not picking on mr. plosser because i don't think any central banker from the u.s. federal reserve or ecb or minister of france knows the future. just because central bankers h

rick santelli.ing at a specially branded "squawk alley" barbecue sauce designed entirely by ibm super computer watson. we have questions for you about barbecue sauce. head to cnbc.com/vote to join the conversation. we will begin our questions right after this break. he thougd of the conversation. she didn't tell him that her college expenses were going up. or that she maxed out her card during spring break. when the satellite provider checked his credit, he found out his daughter didn't pay her bills. but he's not worried. now he checks his credit report and score at experian.com, allowing him to keep track of his credit and take a break of his own. experian. live credit confident. for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, ou

. >>> first, rick santelli, already talked to senator hatch. what are you watching?> talking now about the escape hatch regarding credit markets. a lot of talk about a credit bubble, and i see interest ranlts continue to be on the low side. anything structurally wrong with the economy we immediate to pay closer attention to? we'll discuss what it could pake to turn the u.s. economy turn and and see rates actually move higher, after the break. they th. but the energy bp produces up here they th. creates something else as well: jobs all over america. engineering and innovation jobs. advanced safety systems & technology. shipping and manufacturing. across the united states, bp supports more than a quarter million jobs. when we set up operation in one part of the country, people in other parts go to work. that's not a coincidence. it's one more part of our commitment to america. thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. and thank you for your bravery. thank you colonel. thank you daddy. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto in

that's coming up. >>> but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? the numbers. what a difference a day makes. yesterday many economists, i remember joel still looking for lofty, lofty q2 and beyond gdps. but maybe that's not so true after what we learned today. what did we learn? of course that's the tease, isn't it? come back after the break and we'll talk about it. so there i was again, explaining my moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis to another new stylist. it was a total embarrassment. and not the kind of attention i wanted. so i had a serious talk with my dermatologist about my treatment options. this time, she prescribed humira-adalimumab. humira helps to clear the surface of my skin by actually working inside my body. in clinical trials, most adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis saw 75% skin clearance. and the majority of people were clear or almost clear in just 4 months. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma, or other types

rick santelli.sco and talking to everyone about what they want to see. the event of the day. we are back after a quick break. ♪fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow♪ ♪fame, puts you there where things are hollow♪ the evolution of luxury continues. the next generation 2015 escalade. ♪fame peace of mind is important when so we provide it services you bucan rely on. with centurylink as your trusted it partner, you'll experience reliable uptime for the network and services you depend on. multi-layered security solutions keep your information safe, and secure. and responsive dedicated support meets your needs, and eases your mind. centurylink. your link to what's next. it's the glow of opportunities of countless people, every one of us, striving to succeed. that's what lights cities up for more than 200 years, citi's job has been to help empower people and business. wherever ideas come alive. wherever you are. the world's citi. >>> good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. right here at the masconi center in san fra

and our own rick santelli. steve liesman is just coming out of the news conference and we will hear from him momentarily. rick santelli, what do you think of the market's response to the fed's statement and her news conference today? >> there was a lot of volatility right around top of the two, when everything was being released, and most of the volatility were selling, pushing rates up in the intermediate part of the curve. i find that very fascinating. but as the day turned out, seems like equities again are the big winners. interest rates are pretty much where they were before the 2:00 statement was read. other than the ten-year, which is a couple of basis points lower, my own feeling, is and i think you asked the right guy about the press conference. listen, i've been a chicago cub fan my whole life. i think that the economy is now officially the wait until next year cub economy. i think when i listened to janet yellen, it sounds like all the managers i've ever heard, platitudes and sound bites. i really th

. >>> in the meantime, the latest from chicago with rick santelli. rick?w are you this morning? the chart passed down here is not of the soccer field. it isn't the comments that sniderman better watch barclay's hard drives, no, but a 20-chart of the deflator. look at the chart. if it was a stock, they would be looking to buy it. it doesn't look like there's a huge downside to it that this inflationary argument, i don't know, if you look at the chart, it doesn't seem to hold water, but looking at that, tens minus two flattens. 206, see the chart? open the chart up for a bit, for one year, what should jump out at you is at the beginning of the year, this spread was 60 basis points wider. wow. look at the ten-year. we see that the yields are going down. we settle at 256, we're at 253 now, dropping is more buying coming in. that's a four-week low. you open the chart up to june 1st, you can see, but here's the situation. traders are wane. the income spending numbers in the general economy post gdp continues to trump the ongoing issues of what we see in the defl

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick? >> thanks, judge. listen, we had a number today.16, 217 with private payrolls. close to expected. it was smaller in the last number. i think i said the number was average. okay? maybe even when it was below average because of the sequential aspects of being lower than last time but it is what it is. and it's certainly much better than the job growth we weren't getting 20 months ago but there's something different about this time around. whether it's the $4 trillion balance sheet, whether it's five years plus after a crisis. we still have zero interest rate policy, big central banks like europe thinking about embarking on another round of crisis-type management programs to bail out their economy and saying that when i think of a kitchen sink, whatever that thought is, multiply it by a thousand and throwing at this problem. so how have we really done? why is the bond market so stubborn? why don't so many believe it's telling an accurate tale about the future? tell you what. there's a reason to prove it is. okay? magic number is 60 mon

rick santelli. a couple of things to count on, considering zero interest rate policy. equities err on the side of strength and treasury prices seem to be counterintuive to the upside. there's the intraday chart. see what sara's referring to, down a basis point, almost two, 2.61. we were at 2.59. if you open the chart up to may 1st, you can see the 2.57, 2.58 a crucial level. we trade below that yield intraday, prices move higher, it's going to make a difference. february 3rd low, a huge area for technical analysis, all year. open the chart up one more month, go back to may 1st. you can see, all of the congestion between this 2.57, 2.55. friday and thursday, you got up into the zones, maybe inflation last week, whatever it was, it doesn't stick. now, if we look at what's going on with regard to bunds versus tens, this continues to hoover at 15-year wide. if we look at dollar index, year date it's fighting for unchanged. euro currency holding better than many thought and the dollar has gone comatose.

rick santelli, good morning. >> good morning, yes.orderly trade in treasuries, and very much biassed in two years, flattening yield curves and well-bid treasury prices. look at the chart of tens. does not look that aggressive in how much activity you get. open to a two-day chart, you see we've stacked back down, maybe the best way to look at this is to consider we're down two and a half basis points on the day, ten for the week, and fives are down six on the week. there you go. there's the thereflattening in action. the last day was in may as you see on the chart. yield curves, it's important. the flattening yield curve is a surprise. so is the upside. the surprises are linked in the street, didn't look for either of those. as a matter of fact, steepening in higher rate was was the watch word from thanksgiving to new year's eve of last yearme menye. the fives to tens hovering two year flat, and we know the rest, but tens and twos responding. that's a month to date, a big move down to 205, a one-year tight, a one-year flat for the trad

room with all the players, cheering one nation, one team, keep making us proud, @u.ssoccer. >>> rick santellith the santelli exchange celebrating the american victory there. good morning, rick. >> reporter: good morning, kelly. part is pursuant to our discussions on the 3:00 closing bell yesterday about liquidity. you know, there have been times where jgb the second largest bond market in the world. trades basically by appointment in the cash market. there was one day where it didn't trade at all, and that's only, i think, the first time going back to 2000. the italian markets, a big market for its sovereign securities. that's been pretty thin. even u.s. treasuries. well, is it tight collateral or how do i know this? think about some of the balloons floated in the last couple of days. exit fees for bond funds potentially. as i'm talking, we could put up some charts. whether you look at barkleys, how the trades are historically narrow. meaning you're not getting a lot of add-on on top of treasury yields. look at etfs, hyg, lqd, the central bankers great credit for exploring the notion unlike a

rick santelli for a check on the action of the cme. rick? >> hi, simon hobbs.a couple basis points. by the way, we auctioned 39 billion of them off. that's why the auction being over we're seeing rates go up, should we settle anywhere with a yield under 165, it would be a new 2 1/2 week low closing yield, and the last chart, dollar index, notice the low on it. that was a touch of unchanged on 2014. back to you. >>> thank you very much, rick. let's check on where we are with gold. what was interesting is today the weak gdp data actually gave 2k3w08d a boost, so closing for flat foss session overall. it was down on the argument that the weaker economic future -- let's look at how the ag commodities are faring. so far sugar soy bheen and corn have made substantial gains. general mills clearly a big user. the fourth quarter results coming in below expectations today. the latest results come in amid a seismic shift in the way people are consuming breakfast in this country. sarah eisen knows a thing or two about an early breakfast. >> we often share an early breakfas

rick santelli. hi. >> hey, karl.ffett considered the top of the heap when it comes to world class investmenters kov kerring decades. one of the things a like about warren buffett, something he said. i'm paraphrasing. when you wake up in the morning, look at your positions you need to fall in love with them every morning. in other words, whatever positions you have, if you wake up one morning and you look at the landscape of the marketplace and at the cme pivot around, where everything in the world is positions. if you don't like it, you've it h it for a while, you're probably making a flawed, strategic mistake. let's fast-forward to yesterday in the press conference, and i know -- by the way, steve liesman if you're listening, congratulations. little doubt we all knew the minute you asked. asked the only question that should have been brought up, considering it was first. i don't think the answer regarding inflation was necessarily up to snuff, but i really don't think all of the ire of yesterday should be on the not

on that note, let's bring in rick santelli. nobody is doing any more biting here. that was just for one time only. what's your take on the gdp today? >> i like your comment it's old data. every bit of data we get on the markets is old. there's no data that isn't compil compiled, there's fresher old data. i think the issue here is stocks have brushed everything off for the last 5 1/2 years, and i think the -- with a couple bumps, but mostly higher of the we've had 4% gdps in 2012. we've had negative gdps, but in the end, i think the issue with the marketplace is that all weakness in the first quarter was not attributed only to weather. even if you get a bound back of 4%, you end up walking away with an average of half of 1%. i think we'll be a bit at odds with the rest of the year, because many still believe that the glide path of growth just isn't what it should be this many years after the last recession. >> all right. rick santelli, thank you, sir. let's bring in senior economist anika kahn, as we as joe lavorgna. thank you for making the trip north. we appreciat

. >>> let's go over to chicago in the bond pits, rick santelli. ick. >> thank you, being below 260 is not unusual as of late. it seems to be the comfort norm or the comfort zone of tens. look at the two-day chart, and you can clearly see yesterday we defined an upper bounds, today the lower bounds, and it seems to contract since the fed meeting, we closed at 262, 260, and yesterday around 263. it's not been aggressive, closing yields, but where you get a sense of the market is going back to may. you can see that we are definitely on the lower drift, but we're consolidating. open the chart up one more month, you can see the pattern still holds basically true. look at what's going on with foreign exchange, and remember, you know, mr. carney talking a bit and the effect of the markets, whether -- they comply, and at least at this point, that's the biggest reason not to look for equity correction, but look at a five and a half year chart of the pound, basically october of 2008, down a little bit today, it's not changed the look of the charts. now, look

let us bring in cnbc contributor rick santelli. first to you, sir. any shock and awe on the floor of the cme in chicago, or was this pretty much expected like david tepper talked about? >> reporter: let's play a game here. negative interest rates on deposits of excess euros overnight. that would be important. how many excess euros do you think were deposited last night? >> based on your tone, i'm guessing not much. >> reporter: about 32 million. >> chump change. >> reporter: okay. i rest my case. and in terms of purchases, what type of asset-backed market do they have right now? >> not much. >> reporter: not a very advanced one. but i think bill, always hitting the salient point, i think the ltro in the 400 billion is something important. but you can't force banks to loan. my guess is they may do the same thing they've been doing. take that money at 25 basis points, buy their own securities like the spanish central bank and buy spanish securities and the game goes on, creating low interest rates that aren't really real. >> we're calling this the gran

rick santelli. >>> cloud economics. oracle earnings to their latest acquisition.a private company on the next wave of storage. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] if you can't stand the heat, get off the test track. get the mercedes-benz you've been burning for at the summer event, going on now at your authorized mercedes-benz dealer. hurry, before this opportunity cools off. ♪ >>> our next guest simplified enterprise data for its clients and announced a $100 million round of funding this past march which puts its valuation over the billion dollar mark. let's bring in the ceo of actifio. thanks for joining us. you're in copy data. i guess the concept is your technology allows people not to have to make so many different copies of the data that they have and spend a lot of money on that. but instead, deal with more of a virtualized version and save money that way. what's driving that, and did i even explain it correctly, ash? >> yeah, i think the notion, what we've done is to bring this notion of copy data virtualization which virtualizes how you keep copies, manages all thos

rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> simon got me thinking. when we think about mr.at he has said of late may change the outlook for interest rates and the value of the pound, we're going to talk about central banks and how they communicate and whether there's a quid pro quo going on with the big players in the market. all after the break. type 2 diabetes effects millions of us. and for many, it's a struggle to keep your a1c down. so imagine -- what if there was a new class of medicine that works differently to lower blood sugar? imagine...loving your numbers. introducing once-daily invokana®. it's the first of a new kind of prescription medicine that's used along with diet and exercise to lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. invokana® is a once-daily pill that works around the clock to help lower a1c. here's how. the kidneys allow sugar to be absorbed back into the body. invokana® reduces the amount of sugar allowed back in and sends some sugar out through the process of urination. and while it's not for weight loss, it may help you lose some weight. in

but first rick santelli, what are you watching today?ourse we're going to be watching and doing a bit of a postmortem on the ecb press conference and decision this morning. we're going to take a quick look at some of the issues regarding industrial metals in china and the whole notion that, hey, if you liked it the first time around you might like it better second time, and then of course we're going to talk about the 258 yield in tens and fact the euro versus the the dollar is higher on a day when the ecb was definitely hoping it was lower. all after the commercial break. transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year. no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process. so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready for real business. which is...pretty much what we've

rick santelli's going to cover that trade for us as well. cnbc market analyst kenny polcari joins us. i want to turn first to what's happening at the s.e.c. >> yeah. >> mary jo white finally taking up the issue. what do you think? >> i think it's great. i think it's about time that somebody is going to take up that issue because listen, we've been talking about it for a long time. there have people that have been very concerned about it. the flash boys only brings it to the surface. he's not the only person in the country that knew or thought or was frustrated with current market structure. so if that brought it to the surface, i think that's great. a lot of people think that's great. >> register and open their being boos. we'll see. to the market, the ecb did deliver. mr. draghi delivered nicely for the market. why should it matter u.s. investors? >> it's going to matter because if he's going to fuel that fire in europe, right, get that to finally turn around and take hold, that's good for everybody. it's good for europe. it's going to be g

rick santelli. >> thanks, andrew.resident getting ready to speak on iraq, i think geopolitics is a big issue especially, of course, when you're trading markets. i can remember on that wednesday i w i was bowling test of the first gulf war. i was trading energy. it was buy rumors, sell fact. why is any of this important? because geopolitics and weather are definitely trading desktopics of discussion. in very large and profound ways, actually.. but yet as i walk through this building as i have over so many events over the last 35 years, i find there's a whole lot more talk than trade with some of these issues. and when you take into account how polarized the country has gotten on politics, that really has moved into the space of markets. now with social media and tweets and facebook and all the different venues that we cover on "squawk alley" so many more follow the markets in a very superficial conventional wisdom sort of way. so when we get bad weather, everything that happens in the weather is about the same. but for

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?kayla, you know, stewards are different than masters. central banks around the globe should be stewards of their economies and help steer. but they've become masters of the financial universe. but maybe this is all going to change. thank the bank of england, mr. carney and think about coming back after the break when we're going to discuss all of the above. having the cloud allows us to rapid prototype a lot of ideas. being able to pay as we go is crucial for a start up. having to fork out a lot of money up front was risky. we can launch a feature really quick, and if the feature doesn't work, we haven't lost anything, and we can have something up and running in days. and this would not be possible without the cloud. we are now supporting over 25 million users each month. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medica

rick santelli on the floor of the cme in chicago. hey, rick. >> hello, carl. and mario draghi. most of the traders i talked to, just don't think there's any way to deliver because there's nothing to deliver. what are they going to do, what type of program? it's going to be so complex to think it will be announced thursday morning. it's hard to swallow. we'll see how the markets look. right now it seems as though a little bit of equity pressure, a little bit of selling pressure in the fixed income markets as well. but, we're only talking a small amount. look at ten-year, it 2.55, 2.56, the pattern holds. the stair caste. the volume isn't huge but steady. if you open the chart up we're still going to test that breakout. you see it on the far left. 2.57 from february, three weeks ago broke through, traded to our lowest yield close at 2.44 and here we sit. boon yields you can see they've come up a bit as well. here's the catch. looking at spanish ten-year or italian ten year, look at the charts. they reversed but no more. pretty much back on the historic low yield

carl, david, back to you. >>> all right, rick, thank you very much, rick santelli.is here, kyle carpenter, and we'll talk with him when "squawk on the street" comes right back. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. here at fidelity, we give you the most free research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and e-trade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open you

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over to chicago, rick santelli, at the cme group with the santelli exchange. like to welcome congressman scott garrett. welcome. it's been an exciting time to be in the house of representatives. congressman? >> it's always an exciting time to be in the house of representatives, so yeah. after the elections this week, absolutely. >> let's try to get to all of the stories of the day. i would like to start out with one that seems to be pretty close to your heart and a "wall street journal" story as well, fraudulent government accounting like to put it on the screen, cbo notes under fair value accounting the four student loan programs likely cost 88 billion and the official 63 billion windfall expected from the fha single family mortgage guarantee program is in reality a $30 billion taxpayer fleecing. you know, many people believe that you look at the cbo and you get the exact skinny, whether it's the obama care or some of these programs. >> right. >> when was this changed from fair value accounting in the '90s? >> yeah. i guess something like that. so the cbo, ye

rick santelli here live on the floor of the cme group.hanks for taking the time this morning, andy. >> thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> listen, you talk to a lot of trading entities from hedge funds to large retail, institutions, and one of the big themes of late is lack of volatility. if we look at the vix, the moves, we see it. what do you think is going on? >> i think it's fairley obvious that central banks in the world have pretty much taken out all the volatility. i think that's one of the things the fed is going to be talking about next week, the lack of volatility. the i think they're going to start to get scared. i don't expect anything like what carney said last night from janet yellen, but i think it's probably a month or two away. >> well, bring guests and viewers up to speed, basically carney from central bank of england talking about rates may be going up sooner rather than later. it seems to be a market dynamic. it certainly seemed to have moved the pound a bit. >> no question. it moved gilt and the pound, strengthene

our "closing bell" exchange today, rich peterson, jeff layman, dick burress, steve leisman and rick santelli as well. dick, i'll go to you first. why couldn't draghi do what tepper did? what happened? >> was that question for me? >> yes, it was. >> well, i think what he's doing is not enough, frankly. but i do think that the central banks around the world are setting things up for an epic battle between interest rates and corporate earnings around the world. i think ultimately corporate earnings will win that battle. bonds will go down. stocks may have a correction as interest rates start to rise. but ultimately corporate earnings will surprise the up side and stocks will make new highs in to next year. >> you think corporate earnings are going to surprise to the up side like they did in the first quarter? rich peterson, what would that require. >> again, what we're seeing for the second quarter looking for a 7.1% gain -- >> 7.1% year on year. >> for second year. for full year looking at over 7%. that's going to increase in the third quarter to 9% and double digits by the final quarter of th

rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> good morning, david.t treasury yields fairly close unchanged. depending what part of the curve you're looking at. go to the longer end, down a basis point, open the chart up to may 1st. you can clearly see, the fed meeting that's coming up, or the one in the rear view mirror 2.60 level very significant. let's look at the relationships between securities and overseas. look at what's going on on the yield curve, 5 versus 10s, today's new plflat under 90 fla. tens to bunds, 125 basis points. this is a 15-year, yes, 1-5, on the differential between the two rates. take one of those legs, the bund, and compare to the guild. carney and the uk central bank look to be raiding rates on a more aggressive time line than the u.s. look at their security against bunds, it's now 140 basis points of difference, that's a 17-year wide. why do i bring it up? that might reprice what's going on in europe and the developtive value to the ten-year gets affected. all three significant. look at foreign exchange side. euro versus t

there you heard t.mortgage recommendations from rick santelli. thank you all. good to see you. thank you, good luck, kimberly foss, with the new book. thanks for joining us today. >> we want to update you on a story that has the whole nation talking. >> steve handlesman has more on the army's potential investigation into former prisoner of war bowe bergdahl. >> i think it's beyond potential. the chairman of the joint chiefs and the pentagon confirms it says there will be what the pentagon calls an inquiry into charges of misconduct on the part of bowe bergdahl that allegedly led to his disappearance and being taken captive by the taliban and soldiers who served with bergdahl clearly will be all together happy to help in this inquiry. it's now a public shaming by one after another of these soldiers who are coming out. i spoke to one today, who said of the six who died during the search for bergdahl, two were his friends. he says these six would not have died, in his opinion, he says bergtdal didn't pull the trigger, the bad guys, the enemy, the taliban killed these soldiers, but

back to you. >> thanks very much, rick santelli on the breaking services data. looks like u.s. stocks are slightly lower this morning. nasdaq just flipping into positive territory. barely seeing strong moves following a huge dump of data when it comes to the economy. let's talk about what we learned. john with obamaer mire asset manager, drew, senior u.s. economist and director with ubs. drew, what do you make of the jumble of the data? are you worried that the adp number is a concern for friday? >> i'm not too worried about that. if you look at the overall trends in everything you could possibly look at with regard to the labor market it's pointing in the same direction. that's towards a pretty healthy. . 230 and the unemployment rate at 6.3. if you get that the market will like it. an i think the fed is going to have to begin to think about whether or not they're right in terms of how much spare capacity in the labor market there is. >> you're starting to see some really good news on the economy. if you look at auto sales yesterday the services number was quit

. >> and our very own rick santelli from chicago. kim, sorry about that. >> it's okay. >> on that note, kim, i'll begin with you. >> okay. >> what's weighing more on the minds of investors today? is it the developing situation in iraq or is it the fed meeting, which is looming? >> i think that's a tie. i'm probably more looking at the fed and their decision about how they're going to discuss whatever they're going to discuss. that's a big focus for us. but also, the iraqi situation is very important, especially to anybody that drives a car. >> joe, what happens if argentina defaults on its debt? >> you know, i think it's a problem, clearly, but i would say that what's going on in iraq right now is probably weighing on investors' minds just a little bit more. we continue to watch, you know, the risk premium in oil, and we've talked about this in the past. if oil prices really do go through the roof, that can have a significant impact on economic growth, not only economic growth, but also on the capital markets. >> we have merrill out

let's go to rick santelli. rick. >> good morning, tyler, we're digesting the number, the fact we're unchanged in tens, about you lower than last time. remember, the recession officially ended in june of '09, and it's taken all this time to get the jobs back we lost in the recession. it takes so much longer, and that's one of the issues that the treasury market is telling us, look at yields intraday unchanged, we are down about 9 1/2, 10 basis points on the week. if we look at the most important chart in my pin it's the bunds verse tens. you see on the intraday, it's widened out to 123. you have to go back to 1999, almost 15, 1-5 years ago, to see a wider relationship with our ten and the european benchmark. tyler, back to you. >>> jobs out west in the war for top talent. some companies are getting very creative, and josh limit ton is here with a look at some of the perks being offered to lure workers. josh? >> silicon valley, of course, legendary for the eric perks companies gives to keep their employees happy

. >>> to the bond market where we have seen some inflows, rick santelli tracking the action. hi, sue. indeed this week has been about lower rates. as you look at a two-day chart, you can clearly see we are virtually unchanged subtling at 253, maybe more importantly down eight basis points. if you open the chart up, you can clearly see the lowest point on that chart on the left side is the 28th of last month. that low yield close was 244. want to pay close attention to that. intraday of the dollar index, open the chart up year to day, it's exactly where we closed the end of last year, so briefly the dollar index was unchanged. >>> sue, back to you. have a great weekend. >> you too, rick. >> thank you so much. on that note, happy summer. take a look at that. my gosh, after repeated delays, keg keg city is expected to open the world's biggest slide. it's 17 stories, but it's been plagued by snags yesterday was the test run. it went successfully. it's call verut, which is is german for insanity. you would never catch me on that. >>> the bigger fear may be fear itself. we're talki

in taking one out for a spin for sure. >>> in the meantime, going to chicago to the cme group, rick santellit we forget debt works only when debt creates growth greater than the cost of borrowing. my guest said that. thank you, charles. i love that quote. explain what you met. >> up until 2008, income was growing faster in the united states than debt. since 2008, it hasn't. deleveraging. yes, mortgage debt dropped, but in the last year, student loans grew by a hundred billion, loans up a lot, and total after the tax -- before tax income is only up 350 billion before inflation. >> 350 billion sounds like more than the student lopes. >> yes, but there's the federal budget deficit of 600 billion on top of that. debt grew by a trillion in the united states, and incomes up by a few hundred billion. >> party line, debts getting smaller and smaller. >> no. the only thing is they can't count. it's the government. when can the government count? as long as they can count the votes and count how much money they deposit in their bank from their paychecks that they don't deserve getting, government don't

rick santelli at cme group in chicago.iations continue between international long shore and warehouse union and the pacific mary time association. if they don't reach a deal, the economy would have $2.5 billion per day problem on its hands. jane wells is live in los angeles with the story. >> reporter: i'm at the port of los angeles. they call it june gloom here when it's gray in l.a. in the mornings during june and it burns off. it's gray hanging over contract negotiations which are expected to continue through the experration of the contract which is 33 hours away. by mid-july, if there is no agreement between the 29 ports on the west coast and thousands of dock workers, well, could we see the pictures from the ten-day lockout years ago, the smell of rotting feed in the air? the maritime association or management, if you will in the contract, says west coast ports contribute $2 trillion to the u.s. economy equivalent to 12.5%, of total u.s. gdp. the l.a. port is the largest. this is an inbound ship coming in. traffic is

rick santelli as the fed kicks off a two-day meeting. rick? >> thank you, sara.of the two-day fed meeting and potentially higher inflation and uncertainty over exits we have the perfect guest. we have exactly ander richter who helped co-author a paper by the dallas fed. the zero, lower bound and uncertainty. translation, with rates at zero there may be a risk and a link putting up certainty and slower growth in the same sentence. welcome, alexander. tell us about the hypothesis that you have written about in the research paper. >> thanks, rick, for having men on. i appreciate it. what we find in the paper is since 2008 which is when the fed lowers the interest rate to zero are, we find there is a strong negative correlation between real gdp growth and uncertainty. prior to that, the correlation was weak. are interestingly enough, you might think this is just due to recession. when we condition on quarters where the economy was in recession since 1960 which is about 34 quarters we find the correlation is also fairly weak. there is something going on since 2008 dri

. >> let's complete the hat trick and turn it over to rick santelli in chicago. >> i really like your comments about soccer. two things. first of all, can we get the cubs into a lead where you advance when you lose. and what about that dynamic reminds me the stock market, i'm sorry. listen, everybody is talking about the comments. i don't think the central bank is robbing from the poor. i think they're robbing from the middle class. and if i look at yields, we're basically at a one month low in ten year yields. real spending is definitely bringing down second quarter gdp. so the stick where he threw away, we have the carrot, everybody continues to run after it. but i will he will you this, te administe3% gdp has remained elusive. >>> did you know recent college grads make about $70,000 more than their peers without degrees? but many of those same grads are saddled with massive student loan debt. so is college really worth the cost? we're looking at new newspapeu on this. >>> but first, there was a little matter of a soccer game last couple hours. and do that think wall street wasn't i

now let's over to the group, rick santelli, a fan of snap chat. rick?of anything that can pull its own weight on a balance sheet. okay? so if all of social media will make the companies grow the real way. finewhat i'm looking at today, how balance sheets are growing in a very unreal way. 1.97 trillion, i love saying trillion, with a t. what is that? that's the dollar equivalent of the bank of japan's ownership of their own debt market making them officially, the data as of march, a little behind, they are now officially the biggest holder in insurance companies, the lifers, of course, always holding on to the longer term securities, especially in japan, are now second. so just a whisker less than 2 trillion. our most's recent number on our 4-plus billion number sheet for the united states federal reserve bank is a be to point to 5 to 27, just shy of 2.3 trillion. not much disparity and the fed leads the pack with china coming in second and aforementioned japanese third under the federal reserve. what does it all mean? a couple people on in the last seve

rick santelli is at the bond market and what they're anticipating. hey, rick. >> hi, sue.ope the press conference doesn't have as tough a crowd as the poor young ladies had. interest rates, we're down a couple basis points. but what's fascinating is the five year and yields are actually down more, double that. if we look at fives versus tens, we could see today it actually steepened a couple basis points, but remember, that particular spread a multiyear flat. if we look at the dollar index today, it's drifting a bit lower, but really the key chart is the next chart. month to date. this is all we've down. remember, look at the scaling, 80.40, to 80.80. less than half a cent closing range for basically the entire trading month. tyler, sue, back to you. >> thanks, rick. i'll take it. >>> well, happening right now in seattle, amazon unveiling a brand-new product, widely expected to be the company's first smartphone. our panel of reporters and experts are standing by. jon fortt is monitoring the event from the breaking newsdesk back at headquarters. he'll bring us the latest. j

let's check in on interest rates to the bond market where rick santelli is tracking the action. >> if chart of tens, we're up and, yes, we're continuing to have a formation staircase where once we get above the previous day's yields, we see that we continue to see more selling. open the chart up, to early february, this 256, 257 area is key. many believe that's where we go into the key data on wednesday and thursday with regard to jobs. here is where huge action has been. the ten-year span and the ten-year italian note had 25 plus basis points movement in two weeks from the 20th to today. they have fallen 25 plus basis points. this is going to be a hotbed of volatility. they're expecting a lot from mario draghi on thursday. tyler, back to you. >> we have heard about how crazy silicon valley's market is. prices up triple digits over the past few years. josh lipton covering ajose. >> companies on the hunt for office space here in silicon valley better be ready to pay top dollar. commercial real estate prices are soaring higher. in the past four years, palo alto is up 75%. asking rents a

rick santelli is tracking the action. what grade are you going to give it? >> as i cipher and cipher, i'll tell you what, we're going to give it a c-minus. this auction was kind of like kissing your sister, it wasn't ugly, wasn't pretty, it is what it is. the ultimate yield 0.5211. so it priced right, but everything was a little weak. by a bid to cover was a little light. 23.1, a little light with 26%, ten auction average, same could be said for directs at 23.3. the dealers, when everything is averaged they roughly take 50%. yes, in this case it was 53.6 to be exact. the short maturity auctions should be more solid than this one. this doesn't paint a good picture for the rest of supply. sue, back to you. >> maybe it's just the beginning of summer, rick, but you're right. it doesn't mean the rest of the auctions will go all that well. >> let's focus on health care. after five years of slowing growth for employer health care costs that's reversing and costs are soaring again. bertha coombs has some details. >> as our including put it, the party is over. medica

and check in with rick santelli today. good morning. >> good morning, carl. 10-year yields, 256.one many santelli exchanges on replacements, fbi that chee, and talked about the significant february 3rd low-closing yield that stood there for quite a period of time. that was 2.57. soefrl weeks ago, broke through. and, of course, the 10 to 15 basis point rally in price drop in yields had a lot of eye walls and heads scratching trying to explain it. no matter what your reasons are for the rate to be down there, no surprise for your technicians that in front of tomorrow's first of two employment reports, tomorrow is adp, and friday the bls, snugged up, taking the slack out right up spot resistance level. another key issue in between wednesday and friday, thursday in the ec be, meeting, great articles out. today, show it on the screen. britain has made a fool out of the eu. they must make a choice. play by the rules, or leave the european union. but that isn't the only article out. one of my favorites, ambrose eva evans pritchard, and europe has a bigger crisis than a british exit rega

jeff cox from cnbc.com and joe and andrew aarons and, of course, our our own rick santelli as well. danny, moving into the month of june. they didn't sell in may and go away but will they change their tune in the month of june, as we were saying on friday? >> that was nice, bill. >> actually if you didn't sell in may you were objection but this morning it was a little tricky, like you were alluding to before with the ism redo and then redo again, and once again another trust crushing government al redo, and so, you know, we were saying on the trading desk actually who got the high speed numbers on that ism release and did they get the corrected number, because if they did, they did very well today? but that aside, this is a big week for numbers. >> yes, it is. >> it's about seven central banks reporting, and we've got big jobs numbers at the end of the week which is really important as well. >> yeah, that number, andrew. can we talk about that number for a second. it's got to be now what people are looking to, estimating we added, what, 200,000 jobs last month for the u.s. economy a

what's the bond market been telling you, rick santelli? the places to watch most is bond. is there anything in the action over the past several days that's signaling something to you? i note earlier today you gave the auction an a-plus. >> we had had good demand for the 30-year, unlike the 10-year yesterday. if you look at march's retail sales, let's just look at the generic headline number. it was 1.5% in march. in april, it was revised from .1% to .5%. today, .3%. sequentially, that's the field that we came in with in terms of the landscape. then we see what happens. look at these charts, tyler. at exactly 1:00 eastern on that strong option you were just talking about, that when we really saw rates drop. i understand there is a lot of geopolitics but there's also a lot of gamesmanship going on trying to make it anything but the economy. with regard to the geopolitics, ukraine didn't really stack up and i don't understand the conventional wisdom with dictating how important it may or may not be. why did it wait until 1:00 eastern to really get going? i think that the bond

now over to rick santelli. >> i'll tell you what, we'll have to wait and see how this one finishes outhen it comes to the unemployment rate, the advertised rate, we saw it on the screen, big as life, 6.3%. you now, do any viewers and listeners truly believe that that 6.3% is telling us what the federal reserve wants to truly mean? i personally being it's kind of a wink. and i'll tell you why. because the structural issues of what the labor force participation rate dropping over the last handful plus of years, and it has been a trend that actually outlives the current administration even part of the previous administration, but i do think some of the policies of late have accelerated. but let's keep it simple. many want to concentrate on the dynamic that makes sense. it's the 60 and 70-year-olds that are dropping out. but that really isn't the case. as a matter of fact, if you look at all demographic groups, whether 20 to i24, which by the way on the data as advertised, we have reclaimed all the jobs we've lost in the recession, maybe that is true on the nominal side, but consider the p

first rick santelli, who is a 10 in our eyes, what are you watching today?gh a form at least of oh normalization in the u.s. regarding fed policy, strategy and programs. but not so true in europe. it looks as though there may be a separation between the two super powers. but of course on a global economy there is never a divorce. the wild card today, may be basil fizzle. what's that mean? show up after the break to find out. ♪ ♪ (man speaking chinese) ♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. at boeing, one thing never changes. our passion to make it real. ♪ >>> coming up at the top of the hour, the moment of truth for the markets with the all eyes on the ecb. what will mario draghi do and how do you trade it? what's the it brand for today's youth? one wall street analyst said under armour and he said the stock is on the move. do traders agree? wait until you hear how mu

let's go out to chicago, rick santelli is tracking the interest rates., ricky. >> you know, sue, it's a very fascinating day today. once again at 8:30 eastern, when you get important data points, you get to see the emperor without the clothes on. there's no facade here. rates popped up as you see on the intraday, as they should. it was hotter than expected, and they stuck. over the last several months, this has been one of the issues regarding the falling rates that we were seeing some building of price pressures. as you hope it up, you realize that left-hand peak is a yield close on the 12th of may. that's what technicians are looking at. look for some stop orders, and to raise the yield and lower the price even further, the pound is down a bit today, but open it up, we're still hovering at five-year highs. tomorrow we're going to get the minutes to the last mpc bank of england policy meeting. many are scrutinizing that in lieu of a tightening before any other major developed economy. >>> dude, where are my sticks? where are my golf clubs. rory mcelroy

and our own rick santelli. welcome one and all. kelly, i want to start with you because you made the case that now is a good time from where you see it to take some profits that's different from the views of a couple of our other panelists which we'll get to in a moment. why do you say that? >> well, i think that we have to factor in some behavioral finance into the equation here. i do expect a pullback. we're going into the summer months which is typically very slow for the market. on top of that we've got the midterm elections coming up. and given the conduct of the government over the last several years, i expect more turmoil and more volatility. and the market doesn't like uncertainty. we're in the fifth year of this bull market. so i think that as far as the economic news we've heard as much good economic news as we're going to hear for a while so, i think people should take some profits off the table, and i am a big advocate of asset allocation. i like the short to intermediate-term bonds. i think you should keep it low durat